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Gold-Silver Ratio 2021 Edition

plata_oro

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I think in last years thread there was a chart where to swap back and forth. If played right a person could trade back and forth and end up with more but it moves slow generally. The latest premiums make it harder also.

That's always the problem. Everybody likes to sight the paper GSR but it really has been relevant that last year. The premiums were much closer to spot in the first 3/4's of 2019. Ever since then it seems like premiums have soared especially for silver. But now gold is seeing it happen too.

A 2021 1/10 ozt AGE on goldeneaglecoin.com going for $241 as I write this. You can get a 1 ducat gold coin for $212 and get even more gold content. My LCS won't pay you the premium if you need to sell.

Just in case anyone is interested in the 1 ducat gold coin. I purchased 1 in early January and they just now are processing the payment and I should get a tracking # next week. We're talking two months delivery. I did pay by paper check but it usually takes a couple of weeks. Crazy times we are living in.....
 

solarion

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I read www.jsmineset for Comex contracts daily, but have seen no large delivery orders. Question, where do industrial companies, private mints, US mint, acquire the silver to manufacture their rounds, bars, coins....? I believe they are buying their silver from other sources so as to not effect corrupted paper Comex prices. Anyone have ideas?
Wholesalers/refiners supply the raw silver, which presumably they get from miners/recyclers. I know the US mint sources blanks from multiple sources(private mints).

The current physical silver shortage is now at the wholesaler/refiner level...hence higher premiums on 1000oz London delivery bars.
 

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I think the silver squeeze is starting to show up. Noticed that gold has been slightly red the last few days while silver is slightly green. We are at 66.6:1 now.

The 10% pop last Monday was the earthquake, and the tsunami will be delivery (and options expiry between now and April).
I noticed that too and was thinking that silver may have already done 'squoze'.

I read www.jsmineset for Comex contracts daily, but have seen no large delivery orders. Question, where do industrial companies, private mints, US mint, acquire the silver to manufacture their rounds, bars, coins....? I believe they are buying their silver from other sources so as to not effect corrupted paper Comex prices. Anyone have ideas?
The only logical place for the fabrication companies to acquire their silver would be at the source, the mines or more likely the refiners. It wouldn't make a lot of sense to me to add COMEX as a middleman unless the paper market is part of their hedging strategy and a trade blew up. Even then it would probably be easier and more efficient to settle for cash and still go get the metal from the source.
 

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Maybe we should be playing the premiums instead of playing victim and let them set the terms. Paying $1 oz was one thing but paying $5+ an oz is another. Has anyone called & said I will sell you 100 Silver Rounds in new condition for Spot + $1 leaving them with a $4 + profit & making two customers happy? Why take 92% or less of spot. There is a shortage & if they have nothing to sell they are making zero.
 

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Jeebus! Wasn't that long ago that it was almost double that ratio. And it's been dropping pretty fast. I hope the 30s can wait for spring. I don't do well with a pickaxe chopping through 4 feet of frost in sub-zero weather. But snowshoes, snow shovel, backpack and pickaxe are at the ready. Might need to pick up a couple bags of charcoal too.
 

WillA2

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Well, the best I can figure, that is making my SWAG about silver spot price in reality, the GSR is closer to 52:1. This is assuming a more reasonable spot price for silver being in the nighborhood of $35/ounce.
 

WillA2

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All that said, I know the market spot price for silver is about $28.00. Where can you find it for that price?
 

solarion

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All that said, I know the market spot price for silver is about $28.00. Where can you find it for that price?
Not sure. Even 1k delivery bars are running 1.75 bucks over spot...when there are any to buy.
 

BigJim#1-8

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Well, the best I can figure, that is making my SWAG about silver spot price in reality, the GSR is closer to 52:1. This is assuming a more reasonable spot price for silver being in the nighborhood of $35/ounce.
Quick example from Colorado Gold.
AGE-$1954.00
ASE-$35.00
Ratio-55.8/1 @ their prices with premiums included.
 
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Uglytruth

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Has anyone contacted a dealer about how they will work trades NOT frn SALES from silver to gold? Lets say Gold is 2K an oz & silver is $50 an oz. That's a 40:1 ratio. How would a trade work? Forget the frn part of this deal and shipping also so as not to confuse things. They are charging a heck of a premium and physical supply is short. So would they "trade" straight up & make the money on their premiums?

At 40:1 if you traded in 200 oz silver would they trade you straight up for 5 oz gold? Would they want 220 oz (10% premium) for 5 oz? Is it negotiable?
 

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Has anyone contacted a dealer about how they will work trades NOT frn SALES from silver to gold? Lets say Gold is 2K an oz & silver is $50 an oz. That's a 40:1 ratio. How would a trade work? Forget the frn part of this deal and shipping also so as not to confuse things. They are charging a heck of a premium and physical supply is short. So would they "trade" straight up & make the money on their premiums?

At 40:1 if you traded in 200 oz silver would they trade you straight up for 5 oz gold? Would they want 220 oz (10% premium) for 5 oz? Is it negotiable?
Yes, done it a few times. But every deal is different and it depends on the supply and demand at the particular time and what they have in stock or can get easily. Sometimes they have an abundance of something and would normally just send it off to the smelter anyway. If you can save them having to do that they would be willing to cut you a good deal. Saves them shipping costs too. And the smelters aren't paying a premium for anything- keep that in mind when you are doing your negotiations. You just have to talk to your dealer and maybe take what they have at the time. And you can't always be picky about what form it's in. And I can't stress this enough- it really helps if you already have a good relationship with your dealer.

Normally, when the ratio gets way out of whack it's because one metal is in much higher demand than the other. And that always works out perfectly for you, the one wanting to do the swap if you're trading the ratios. For example now- Say the ratio drops to the 30s. That's because everyone wants silver, not so much gold- but you have the silver if you're doing it right. The dealer will be happy to do the swap for you at a good rate. Sure, they want to get a cut too but you are doing them a favor, possibly supplying them with metal that is hard or impossible for them to come by. It's a win-win deal. And you should only ever have to give up a couple of ratio points for slippage and commissions on each trade.

If you have to pay sales tax on the deal then you need to find another dealer, maybe in another state because that can be a deal breaker.
 

plata_oro

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Has anyone contacted a dealer about how they will work trades NOT frn SALES from silver to gold? Lets say Gold is 2K an oz & silver is $50 an oz. That's a 40:1 ratio. How would a trade work? Forget the frn part of this deal and shipping also so as not to confuse things. They are charging a heck of a premium and physical supply is short. So would they "trade" straight up & make the money on their premiums?

At 40:1 if you traded in 200 oz silver would they trade you straight up for 5 oz gold? Would they want 220 oz (10% premium) for 5 oz? Is it negotiable?


Golden Eagle Coin & Provident (mostly likely) both will trade. They will write a PO for your sale and use the proceeds towards your purchase. Meanwhile all the banking system sees is a small amount cash going in or out of your checking account. Not enough to alert anybody or worth reporting.

My LCS asks for my ID and attaches a PO to my sale (no matter how big) and probably reports to the IRS. Provident and Golden Eagle both don't do that (attaches an ID to the sale). Golden Coin I am 100% sure of this as of last summer as I traded my silver pandas nobody seems to want out here for Perth mint gold bars. I would have to call Provident to make sure they still do as they have since been purchased by JM Bullion and they may do business differently. Keep in mind every time I have done this the $ amount (of the sale ) is under the magical $10k mark that alerts the authorities.

I have about 300 ozt's generic bullion left I am willing to trade should the ratio reach 30:1 or under. But as previously mentioned it is hard to know what they might have in stock gold wise should that happen. I prefer gold eagles but if the premium is too stiff the I would considers generic or European coins instead.
 

Uglytruth

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Golden Eagle Coin & Provident (mostly likely) both will trade. They will write a PO for your sale and use the proceeds towards your purchase. Meanwhile all the banking system sees is a small amount cash going in or out of your checking account. Not enough to alert anybody or worth reporting.

My LCS asks for my ID and attaches a PO to my sale (no matter how big) and probably reports to the IRS. Provident and Golden Eagle both don't do that (attaches an ID to the sale). Golden Coin I am 100% sure of this as of last summer as I traded my silver pandas nobody seems to want out here for Perth mint gold bars. I would have to call Provident to make sure they still do as they have since been purchased by JM Bullion and they may do business differently. Keep in mind every time I have done this the $ amount (of the sale ) is under the magical $10k mark that alerts the authorities.

I have about 300 ozt's generic bullion left I am willing to trade should the ratio reach 30:1 or under. But as previously mentioned it is hard to know what they might have in stock gold wise should that happen. I prefer gold eagles but if the premium is too stiff the I would considers generic or European coins instead.
How much was the slippage at the time?
 

Goldbrix

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At 40:1 if you traded in 200 oz silver would they trade you straight up for 5 oz gold? Would they want 220 oz (10% premium) for 5 oz? Is it negotiable?
Only negotiable when you find someone willing to negotiate.
Good Luck
 

plata_oro

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How much was the slippage at the time?

Provident applies the credit to your purchase as soon as they process the goods you send them. You have to pay via paper check and once you settle your sale they will process your order and if they owe you, they ACH credit or debit depending on the remaining balance (as it will never be exact).

Golden Eagle is a crapshoot right now. I am still waiting for a 1 Ducat gold coin I order January 3rd. I just got a tracker today. It hasn't taken that long in the past, but it could because of the coof. Lead times on mail are longer than normal. Whatever normal is anymore.....
 

<SLV>

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64.5

#silversqueeze
 

<SLV>

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Ratio still tightening in spite of the ups and downs.

I remember 60:1 being somewhat common back when I joined up with GIM originally.

1614286467306.png


This year:

1614286497926.png
 

<SLV>

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32-40:1 looks like a reasonable target for this #silversqueeze:

1614286624101.png


I expect gold to be pulled up with silver, so at $2,000 gold this would make silver $50-$60.
 

<SLV>

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Well that was a quick setback.
 

solarion

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Should be a short lived setback...given the grotesque difference in premiums between the two primary...former monetary metals. Silver bullion premiums are pushing 20%, while gold premiums are just a tad over 4% at this point. ...I wonder why...
 

WillA2

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Makes me think big players, somewhere, have the ability to buy PMs quietly and un noticed while they paper the market.
 

solarion

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Makes me think big players, somewhere, have the ability to buy PMs quietly and un noticed while they paper the market.
That's exactly what they're doing and you needn't wonder who's stacking either...they'll tell you, you need only know where to look.

https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsYTDReport.pdf

I doubt anyone will be surprised to learn that banksters say one thing while doing another...

1614372300926.png


Record physical gold bullion deliveries? ...at the crimex? By the banksters? These the same banksters that recommend NOT stacking gold? Weird.
 

oldgaranddad

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That's exactly what they're doing and you needn't wonder who's stacking either...they'll tell you, you need only know where to look.

https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsYTDReport.pdf

I doubt anyone will be surprised to learn that banksters say one thing while doing another...

View attachment 202954

Record physical gold bullion deliveries? ...at the crimex? By the banksters? These the same banksters that recommend NOT stacking gold? Weird.

I wonder how much silver went out the back door, only to go around the block and then be brought in the front door as a new delivery? Come on! You know they are doing it.
 

nickndfl

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The GSR says buy gold instead of silver, but silver is hot despite the paper price. Try to put an ounce in your hand for < $30. They say don't stack gold because you don't need it. It's the same people who say you don't need a gun.
 

solarion

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Not sure how a GSR of 64.97 favors gold, but certainly gold needs to get moving.
 

WillA2

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Right now, gold or silver is a good buy based on spot price. Get it while they are cheap.
 

smooth

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The GSR says buy gold instead of silver, but silver is hot despite the paper price. Try to put an ounce in your hand for < $30. They say don't stack gold because you don't need it. It's the same people who say you don't need a gun.
Actually I believe the GSR needle is still pointing towards Silbur even at the spot price.
 

solarion

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The cheapest metal historically is platinum, which has just broken out of a brutal 9yr downtrend. With the buzz around silver currently, I suspect one could arrange a silver to platinum swap somewhere between 40 - 45 to 1. Here's the research I've put in on this. I'm going to be trying to line this up with some local shops in the very near future...they're killing to get their hands on some silver to sell and it's all I've stacked for 20 years until very recently.

https://www.goldismoney2.com/threads/pt-to-au-pt-to-ag-ratios-and-the-pm-trader.443487/#post-2127555

Silver, platinum, and then a distant 3rd is gold imo, with rhodium and palladium too expensive historically to pour funds into or consider swapping into at these levels.
 

Uglytruth

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Had never considered it but thanks for pointing it out!

With gas cars being forced out less plugs & catalytic converters will be produced so the demand should drop.

What are the other industrial uses for platinum? More at link.

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/platinum-industrial-demand.html

Platinum Industrial Demand
  • 14 Feb 2020
  • By World Platinum Investment Council
  • Topics: Metals
Industrial demand is a key segment for platinum
Understanding the dynamics of platinum demand is essential to understanding the investment case for platinum, which is based on an evaluation of trends in platinum demand, supply, and market balances. Currently, platinum demand growth drivers, against a backdrop of constrained supply, increase the consequent likelihood of future deficits.
Platinum demand is complex. Firstly, as a commodity, platinum is not always well understood. Is it a precious metal or is it an industrial metal? These distinctions can sometimes cause confusion. The truth is that platinum is both a precious metal and an industrial metal. From an investment perspective, platinum is closely correlated to gold and brings similar diversification benefits to a portfolio, as well as being a hedge against currency and interest rate fluctuations and a store of value. However, platinum’s price also reflects its supply/demand fundamentals which are closely linked to demand growth and its industrial value-in-use.
Platinum demand is broadly split between four segments with their relative portion of annual demand related to application and value (five-year annual % ranges shown for the period 2015-2019):
  • Automotive applications (36-42%) - autocatalysts controlling emissions from internal combustion engine vehicles, currently mainly in diesel vehicles
  • Jewellery (26%-35%) - the premier jewellery metal in Asia and the West
  • Industrial (21-26%) - myriad uses
  • Investment (0%-15%) - changes in holdings of physically backed ETFs and futures exchange physical stocks as well as purchases of bars and coins
 

nickndfl

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I like platinum because it's shiny.
 

Usury

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I bought some PT back in 08. Later when I tried to trade it NOBODY locally was interested. Pt is NOT money.

For that matter, neither is Ag anymore...so I question how relevant the GSR is now.
 

the_shootist

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I bought some PT back in 08. Later when I tried to trade it NOBODY locally was interested. Pt is NOT money.

For that matter, neither is Ag anymore...so I question how relevant the GSR is now.
I agree w/PT but not with Ag. Ag IS money...silver dollars/halfs/quarters and dimes was always money. No reason to think that's changed now
 

Usury

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Good luck getting more than face value from most peeps for your Ag coins. Even the sheep know AU is money.
 

Usury

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And to clarify I say this not to discourage Ag investment outright. I recognize it’s intrinsic value. Also locally I could find plenty of shops to buy/trade it. So I’m not trying to draw the same parallel as Pt. My point is simply that looking to past GSR ratios from Roman and earlier US times is completely meaningless because Ag is not officially money anymore.
 

Goldbrix

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And to clarify I say this not to discourage Ag investment outright. I recognize it’s intrinsic value. Also locally I could find plenty of shops to buy/trade it. So I’m not trying to draw the same parallel as Pt. My point is simply that looking to past GSR ratios from Roman and earlier US times is completely meaningless because Ag is not officially money anymore.
Well according to the U.S. Government neither is gold.