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Gold Timers Are Finally Throwing in the Towel

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Gold Timers Are Finally Throwing in the Towel

Mark Hulbert says gold traders should be encouraged by this contrarian analysis of sentiment among market timers.

MARK HULBERTMAR 10, 2021 8:00 AM EST

Take heart, long-suffering gold traders: A sustainable rally is getting close.
I base this forecast on a contrarian analysis of sentiment among several dozen gold market timers. Collectively, they are now more pessimistic than at almost any other time over the past two decades. In effect, these timers have constructed an incredibly high and strong Wall of Worry that a gold market rally could climb.
The construction of this wall has been going on for some time, of course. Gold bullion has dropped nearly $400 an ounce since its high last August. Shares of gold mining companies have dropped even more in percentage terms: The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF GDX has dropped 29% since August.
Contrarians were not entirely surprised by this decline. At the August top, the market timers were more bullish than at almost any other time since 2000, suggesting a major pullback was not unlikely.
This is shown in the accompanying chart, which plots the average recommended gold market exposure level among short-term gold timers (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). This average rose to 84% in August, which was higher than 99.7% of all daily HGNSI readings this century. That is as close to an all-out contrarian sell signal as you will probably see in a long time.

New Bitmap Image.jpg


The gold timers’ optimism from last August was so extreme that contrarians were still bearish two months later, even though gold bullion by then was $200 an ounce lower than where it had stood at the August high. The problem, as I wrote in these pages in mid-November, was that the gold timers had only begrudgingly reduced their recommended gold market exposure level -- and remained relatively too optimistic. As a result, I concluded, “contrarians continue to look for lower prices.”
Only in recent weeks have the gold timers become as aggressively pessimistic as they were optimistic last August.
How long should gold timers have to wait before this contrarian rally materializes? By way of an answer, consider the data in the following table.
Average return of VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF over subsequent…
One Month
Two Months
Three Months
Six Months
Following days in which HGNSI is in lowest decile
0.33%
1.50%
2.48%
3.44%
Following days in which HGNSI is in highest decile
-3.56%
-5.63%
-6.62%
-5.32%
As you can see, the greatest return spread in the wake of top and bottom decile HGNSI readings -- 9.10 percentage points -- exists at the three-month horizon. This suggests that the forecast with the highest probability is that gold and gold stocks will be higher than today in three months’ time.
The usual qualifications apply, of course. Don’t forget that contrarian analysis doesn’t always work. And, as the above table illustrates, even when it does it provides guidance only for the very short term.
For example, it would not invalidate the current contrarian optimism for gold to be much lower than today in, say, a year’s time. But if the contrarians are right, the road to that lower price will take gold’s price significantly higher first.

TAGSGOLDMARKETSCOMMODITIESINVESTINGMETALS & MINING

BY
MARK HULBERT

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/gold-timers-are-finally-throwing-in-the-towel?
 

Casey Jones

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Gold market-timers are, IMHO, fools.

Gold is the OPPOSITE of a volatile stampede-driven equity or token. Gold is the ultimate conservative place to park money...not even an investment, just a safe place to park.

However, right now, we're in the Everything Bubble...and one piece I read online this evening ( https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/were-bubble-thats-too-big-fail ) suggests that the reason the Elites are so hepped on reducing their lessers into penury, is that they're out of options. The Everything Bubble is too big to fail, so they're letting gas out of it - and contracting it, to keep themselves in, and throwing the Little People OUT.

So, nothing is safe right now. And with Old Fool Joe in the Big Chair, they're working to make it LESS safe. Notice how the nooze liars are saying NOTHING of the 200 or so COVID-Positive aliens they've caught, tested, and then released, INSIDE our borders? They WANT to relight a second epidemic, preferably in Texas. So that Joey the Stupid can order everyone back into Slave Muzzles, maybe forever. WHILE old Useless Eaters die, either of the PLA-CCP virus, or of the fake vaccine.

What the hell do you do with everything burning around you? You put your fake money into the most-real money you can. Gold.
 

<SLV>

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Long live the permabull!
 

edsl48

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I buy a certain allocation each month not as an investment but as an insurance plan, god help us, if TSHTF. I have had literally zero ability in the past to time markets and have no idea what will be up or down tomorrow regarding investments so for a simpleton like me I figure I wont overpay or underpay as my purchases more or less are at average prices in the long run.
 

Casey Jones

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"IF"?

It HAS. We've broken up in-flight.

We just haven't hit ground, yet.
 

solarion

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You should be stacking all the PMs here...while the crooks at the comex are pummeling paper prices so that they can stack metal cheaper. Do what the banksters are doing, not what they tell you to do.
 

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I always lol at what I consider cheap gold prices.
 

WillA2

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Every time I buy an ounce, I figure that's just one more share of ownership in my bank.
 

ds_mustang

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Use me as a contrary signal--my view on gold has become as bad as it has been in 20 years. We're in the exact situation I've been waiting for and gold should be shining. But there isn't much shine yet. I want to see gold going up with every stimulus announcement. I want to see companies moving out of dollars and into gold by the $billions as a hedge against dollar devaluation. I want to see excitement in the gold sphere, with many new companies sprouting up around a growing move to gold, to make using gold better and easier. I want to see all that happening but so far I don't see it with gold. I see it with crypto, but not gold. Why is it not happening with gold?
 

solarion

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Uh because the gold market is overtly rigged? Only slightly less so than the silver and platinum markets. I mean the Perth mint is defaulting on physical silver delivery to unallocated pool silver "owners", but both metals are being smashed...as usual at the crimex. I keep telling you the banksters are smashing them via paper while stacking them physically as fast as they can, but you say it's not happening...and you base that on nothing but vapor.

You probably think this is all normal behavior at the crimex depositories, but it's not. I've been watching these inventories for years and this is a stampede of physical leaving their vaults. This is a couple weeks worth.

1615999387276.png
 

ds_mustang

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Uh because the gold market is overtly rigged? Only slightly less so than the silver and platinum markets. I mean the Perth mint is defaulting on physical silver delivery to unallocated pool silver "owners", but both metals are being smashed...as usual at the crimex. I keep telling you the banksters are smashing them via paper while stacking them physically as fast as they can, but you say it's not happening...and you base that on nothing but vapor.

You probably think this is all normal behavior at the crimex depositories, but it's not. I've been watching these inventories for years and this is a stampede of physical leaving their vaults. This is a couple weeks worth.

View attachment 204870

We've had this conversation before. I've heard that song constantly for the last 20 years--the boy has cried wolf too many times for me to care very much at the latest cry. And you're focused on something I don't believe is important in the futures market. If you're right, price should eventually rise or we should see constant backwardation, so I'll wait for those indicators before I get excited. And meanwhile what about my other issues? Where are the companies moving out of dollars for gold? I can point to many companies moving out of dollars to crypto in the last year (with another being announced every week). Show me ONE company selling dollars to buy gold. I can show you hundreds of companies that have popped up in the last few years around crypto to improve it, work with it, or make it easier to use somehow. Show me ONE company that has started up recently in the gold space to do anything.

Sorry I just don't see any action. I see conspiracy theories and rumors about what *should* be happening but isn't.
 
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solarion

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<yawn>

You realize that at the end of the story, the wolf actually does eat the boy right?

I really don't care what you believe, particularly if you personally have zero explanation as to why silver premiums are at a record high and have been for months on end. The problem with your skepticism is you provide zero evidence and a whole bunch of your own beliefs.

...and for the hundredth time, the price is consistently in backwardation. Do you even bother checking?

Here's a video where Chris Marcus, Eric Maine, and Andrew Maguire discuss the problems with wholesale market delivery of physical silver. Again, I don't care what you choose to believe. Ignore all the actual evidence provided if that's what you need to sustain your normalcy bias, but it proves/disproves nothing aside from the observable fact that you don't deal in evidence.


1616001493229.png


It's frankly incredible that you could stare at 12 dollar premiums on silver eagles and think nothing of it. lol You do realize that's 46% over spot paper "price" right?

Nothing to see here folks...move along. Just 50.7m ounces of physical silver leaving the crimex in FOURTEEN DAYS.

1616002005720.png
 
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ds_mustang

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<yawn>

You realize that at the end of the story, the wolf actually does eat the boy right?

I really don't care what you believe, particularly if you personally have zero explanation as to why silver premiums are at a record high and have been for months on end. The problem with your skepticism is you provide zero evidence and a whole bunch of your own beliefs.

...and for the hundredth time, the price is consistently in backwardation. Do you even bother checking?

Here's a video where Chris Marcus, Eric Maine, and Andrew Maguire discuss the problems with wholesale market delivery of physical silver. Again, I don't care what you choose to believe. Ignore all the actual evidence provided if that's what you need to sustain your normalcy bias, but it proves/disproves nothing aside from the observable fact that you don't deal in evidence.


View attachment 204871
I'm talking about gold, not silver. Silver is a nice speculation just like many commodities and stocks right now. I bought a bunch before it vanished from retail shelves and had its latest move (and I'm not expecting to sell anytime soon). But silver is an industrial commodity, it's not monetized, nor is it held by countries as a reserve asset, or even big enough to mean much of anything in regard to the larger monetary situation. Any significant reaction to the dollar situation should be showing in gold and it's not.
 

solarion

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Yeah, gold and silver plainly have no monetary correlation to one another and definitely have not had such for thousands of years. lol

Gold premiums are high, but not historic. Silver premiums are historic and have been for months. If silver is jail broken from paper prison, then so will gold be. They're inseparable as monetary metals. I'll spare you the sermon on how a US dollar is defined in grains of silver...not gold, or how silver was money long after gold was de-monetized. Obviously facts are irrelevant where you're concerned anyway.

Gold is btw being dragged from crimex vaults in record quantity as well, but you don't care about that either...because again, you do not deal in facts when it comes to this stuff, only your own personal beliefs.

Obviously explaining to you that historically it's actually platinum(and copper) that best hedge against inflation, would again be a waste of time, because you'll simply dismiss that as well.
 

ds_mustang

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Yeah, gold and silver plainly have no monetary correlation to one another. lol

Gold premiums are high, but not historic. Silver premiums are historic. If silver is jail broken from paper prison, then so will gold be. They're inseparable as monetary metals. I'll spare you the sermon on how a US dollar is defined in grains of silver...not gold, or how silver was money long after gold was de-monetized. Obviously facts are irrelevant where you're concerned anyway.
You act like I'm disagreeing with you significantly, I'm not. I'm heavily in silver and I see what you see. I'm just not going to get excited about things like deliveries and premiums when I've seen all that before and it went nowhere. I can get silver without the premiums, so what do premiums really mean? Clearly there is a crowd of people that buy out the stores of coins when they get freaked out. But I don't care about the little section of the retail market that panic-buys coins, I care what those with $billions are doing. The entire American Silver Eagle mintage last year was 30 million (a good sized year), which at $20 silver is $600 million in silver. But that's less than half of the value that Tesla alone put into bitcoin a few months ago (and Bitcoin is a smaller market cap than silver). Why didn't Tesla buy silver or gold?

If silver runs up over $40 then I might start to pay attention. Right now I'm just not very interested. Gold is even less interesting. And my problem is they *should* be interesting--they should be very interesting.
 

solarion

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Kewl. Then keep right on doing what you're doing. You asked why paper gold price isn't moving and I told you. It's not moving because it's a fake market. Premiums matter because they're the actual price of bullion and not the fake "price" at the comex. The divergence between the two are, imo, not coming down, but the fake paper price will be forced upward due to arbitrage.
 

ds_mustang

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Kewl. Then keep right on doing what you're doing. You asked why paper gold price isn't moving and I told you. It's not moving because it's a fake market. Premiums matter because they're the actual price of bullion and not the fake "price" at the comex. The divergence between the two are, imo, not coming down, but the fake paper price will be forced upward due to arbitrage.
I don't believe any of that. The premiums are definitely not what you say as silver can be bought in bulk at spot and is every day. If you want American Eagle silver coins, you have to pay the high premiums (thanks to panicked retail), but if you just want silver you can get it near spot.
 

solarion

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Yeah, so you've said, as usual with zero evidence to back it up. If you refer to crimex 5k ounce contracts then no, no you can't have them delivered for spot. The crimex is a PITA to deal with precisely to deter delivery of physical. It is this gigantic gap between the fictional paper price there and the real price of physical that's causing the problem. If paper prices were allowed to rise appropriately then there'd be sellers, but that's not happening and the number of people willing to pay $35+ for an ounce of sillver vastly outnumbers the people willing to accept $26 in payment for an ounce of silver. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise.

Never fear though, J. Powell's consistent use of the word "inflation" has raised paper silver prices by $.50 already today. Hopefully this guy keeps talking...the honesty is rather striking.
 

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solarion

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"Moderately above 2% for some time..." LMAO

...just don't count the 7% inflation that we're already pretending isn't there.

1616009309189.png


http://www.chapwoodindex.org/
 

ds_mustang

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Yeah, so you've said, as usual with zero evidence to back it up. If you refer to crimex 5k ounce contracts then no, no you can't have them delivered for spot. The crimex is a PITA to deal with precisely to deter delivery of physical. It is this gigantic gap between the fictional paper price there and the real price of physical that's causing the problem. If paper prices were allowed to rise appropriately then there'd be sellers, but that's not happening and the number of people willing to pay $35+ for an ounce of sillver vastly outnumbers the people willing to accept $26 in payment for an ounce of silver. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise.

Never fear though, J. Powell's consistent use of the word "inflation" has raised paper silver prices by $.50 already today. Hopefully this guy keeps talking...the honesty is rather striking.
I just emailed my metals guy, and silver purchases are 15 cents over spot at the moment. Their fee is 0.3% if you order over $250K otherwise it's 0.5%. Money must be wired. They can store it for you and can hook you up with leases if you want to make a return on it. If you get it delivered instead of stored I'm sure there's a delivery charge, I didn't ask about that.

I'm happy to point you in his direction if you're interested. Or you can pay retail premiums if you want. This is bulk silver though, I doubt they do small orders or coins. You might need to be an Accredited Investor, I'm not sure...
 
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solarion

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No thanks. I don't deal in unicorn metal. There's no lack of people offering to "sell" metal that they hold on to, allegedly FOR YOU. Hell, even the Perth mint is still taking in funds to do that. Of course if you ask for delivery of unallocated silver, then, well they'll get back to you at some point LATER THIS YEAR...if you act fast.

Mind finding out about those mysterious "delivery charges" and the time guaranteed to deliver? Amusing that it's spot +$.15 + 0.3% or 0.5%, but somehow it's spot which is 26.40 and you're talking about 27.87. Oh and btw if you actually want it physically delivered it's more. Guessing that "more" will work out to an additional $1.13 / ounce for a grand total of $29...which is precisely what monex lists as their "bullion" price.

So, like I said, there is no silver bullion available for delivery at "spot". Thanks for confirming.
 

ds_mustang

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No thanks. I don't deal in unicorn metal. There's no lack of people offering to "sell" metal that they hold on to, allegedly FOR YOU. Hell, even the Perth mint is still taking in funds to do that. Of course if you ask for delivery of unallocated silver, then, well they'll get back to you at some point LATER THIS YEAR...if you act fast.

Mind finding out about those mysterious "delivery charges" and the time guaranteed to deliver? Amusing that it's spot +$.15 + 0.3% or 0.5%, but somehow it's spot which is 26.40 and you're talking about 27.87. Oh and btw if you actually want it physically delivered it's more. Guessing that "more" will work out to an additional $1.13 / ounce for a grand total of $29...which is precisely what monex lists as their "bullion" price.

So, like I said, there is no silver bullion available for delivery at "spot". Thanks for confirming.
If you want it delivered, get it delivered. You live in a fantasy world of the silver nutjob who looks at the tiny retail coin market and thinks there is no silver. Here in the real world people mine silver, buy silver near spot every day, get it delivered, lease it to people who use it productively, etc. The company I'm talking to delivers silver/gold regularly to/from miners, jewelers, mints, bullion vaults, and other businesses that actually use the metals daily rather than some guy in his mom's basement who think's an American Silver Eagle is the end-all-be-all of the silver market.

There will come a time when the currency is dying and nobody will exchange their metals for dollars. We're not at that point yet. There is plenty of metal (especially gold as gold is not consumed so nearly all the gold ever mined exists out there somewhere). It's just a question of price. And I quoted you the price you can get silver right now... in the $millions if you want.
 
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ds_mustang

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No thanks. I don't deal in unicorn metal. There's no lack of people offering to "sell" metal that they hold on to, allegedly FOR YOU. Hell, even the Perth mint is still taking in funds to do that. Of course if you ask for delivery of unallocated silver, then, well they'll get back to you at some point LATER THIS YEAR...if you act fast.

Mind finding out about those mysterious "delivery charges" and the time guaranteed to deliver? Amusing that it's spot +$.15 + 0.3% or 0.5%, but somehow it's spot which is 26.40 and you're talking about 27.87. Oh and btw if you actually want it physically delivered it's more. Guessing that "more" will work out to an additional $1.13 / ounce for a grand total of $29...which is precisely what monex lists as their "bullion" price.

So, like I said, there is no silver bullion available for delivery at "spot". Thanks for confirming.

You need to work on your math. If spot is $26.40 then buy price is +15 cents which is $26.55 and then a 0.3% fee making it $26.62/oz if you buy more than $250k. I don't know where you're getting $27.87. And yeah delivery adds a cost... bulk silver is HEAVY, you don't just drop off $250k silver at the post box.
 
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solarion

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You're right, I put a decimal in the wrong place resulting in a 3% fee rather than a .3% fee.

Nevertheless it's not physical in hand for spot. If it's allocated it no doubt has maintenance fees. If it's unallocated it's vapor...and if you want it in hand it will cost to have it shipped. There are lots of options to "buy" silver allegedly at spot, but don't result in you controlling or owning silver at that price. Shares of PSLV will accomplish pretty much the same as what you suggest and at lower cost...but it's not ownership or even control of silver. When you say:
The premiums are definitely not what you say as silver can be bought in bulk at spot and is every day.
At issue is the word "bought". Where you seemingly think someone else holding onto the silver somehow results in owernship/control and I do not. I talk about physical silver delivered TO ME and you tout allocated or unallocated silver stored in someone else's vault...that still costs more than spot. None of which works for refiners, mints, or vendors btw. Those folks need silver in hand, not vault stored bricks.
 
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ds_mustang

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You're right, I put a decimal in the wrong place resulting in a 3% fee rather than a .3% fee.

Nevertheless it's not physical in hand for spot. If it's allocated it no doubt has maintenance fees. If it's unallocated it's vapor...and if you want it in hand it will cost to have it shipped. There are lots of options to "buy" silver allegedly at spot, but don't result in you controlling or owning silver at that price. Shares of PSLV will accomplish pretty much the same as what you suggest and at lower cost...but it's not ownership or even control of silver. When you say:

At issue is the word "bought". Where you seemingly think someone else holding onto the silver somehow results in owernship/control and I do not.
It's not allocated. It's not vapor. It's available to lease to someone else (which requires delivery) or have delivered to you. Storage is an option because people that deal in bulk silver have different issues than retail. Commercial silver is potentially very bulky and heavy, it isn't something their clients keep in their closet.
 

solarion

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It's not allocated.
I know how bankster re-hypothecation scams work. The PM markets are filled with parasites re-hypothecating everything they touch. It's not ownership at spot...it's not ownership at all. Unallocated silver is vapor. It's not physical metal delivered and no amount of word salad from you is going to change that fact. Industrial applications require physical metal, not bankster scams and PM investors with a lick of common sense should be taking delivery of physical metal. Failing that they shouldn't pay fees to pretend they own anything more than shares of an ETF.

Bullion prices are based upon physical metal delivered. Pretty sure you understand the concept of zero counterparty metal. No idea why you're claiming silver can be "bought" at more over spot and stashed in someone else's vault is somehow evidence of silver available at spot. It's not.
 

ds_mustang

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I know how bankster re-hypothecation scams work. The PM markets are filled with parasites re-hypothecating everything they touch. It's not ownership at spot...it's not ownership at all. Unallocated silver is vapor. It's not physical metal delivered and no amount of word salad from you is going to change that fact. Industrial applications require physical metal, not bankster scams and PM investors with a lick of common sense should be taking delivery of physical metal. Failing that they shouldn't pay fees to pretend they own anything more than shares of an ETF.

Bullion prices are based upon physical metal delivered. Pretty sure you understand the concept of zero counterparty metal. No idea why you're claiming silver can be "bought" at more over spot and stashed in someone else's vault is somehow evidence of silver available at spot. It's not.
You live in a paranoid fantasy world of bad gold bug clichés. Not every PM business is a "bankster." Not every gold purchase is "allocated" or "rehopothecated." And despite rumors that silver isn't available, you could buy the metal near spot as I described and have it delivered exactly as I said. But I'll leave you to your fantasy world where you deny reality and claim victory out of pure ignorance.

It's times like this I'm embarrassed to be a gold bug and be associated with the common nonsense.
 
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solarion

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Sure thing pal. Silver just so happens to be so worthless that it's the only commodity that hasn't set a new all time high in 41 years. Doubtless due to its complete lack of industrial or monetary value. ::sarc:: JP Morgan, Douchebank, HSBC, and Scotia are literally busted red handed...repeatedly rigging PM markets and you call it "paranoia". ROFL Meanwhile the currency supply has increased 30x during that time.

The department of just-us with their "deferred prosecution" of JP Morgue STILL pending and an attached $920m fine for same. Yeah that's paranoia.

BTW, here's more of that backwardation you told me to look out for and I posted multiple incidents of, but you then simply warned me to look out for again. Not sure you'd notice rising inflation or a run on bankster re-hypothecation scams if one bit you, but it's happening anyway.

1616034333266.png
 

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I know.

I just don't UNDERSTAND...how BRILLIANT it all is.

Like the Chinese bankers thought, with their new paper money.
 

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Sure thing pal. Silver just so happens to be so worthless that it's the only commodity that hasn't set a new all time high in 41 years. Doubtless due to its complete lack of industrial or monetary value. ::sarc:: JP Morgan, Douchebank, HSBC, and Scotia are literally busted red handed...repeatedly rigging PM markets and you call it "paranoia". ROFL Meanwhile the currency supply has increased 30x during that time.

The department of just-us with their "deferred prosecution" of JP Morgue STILL pending and an attached $920m fine for same. Yeah that's paranoia.

BTW, here's more of that backwardation you told me to look out for and I posted multiple incidents of, but you then simply warned me to look out for again. Not sure you'd notice rising inflation or a run on bankster re-hypothecation scams if one bit you, but it's happening anyway.

View attachment 204911
Backwardation in silver is a warning, but it's also rather common during periods of economic stress and often comes and goes. It's gold backwardation that is the real signal, and it needs to be continuous. We've had a few periods of gold backwardation in the past I was watching, but they didn't last.
 

solarion

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Ah, so clear evidence of backwardation is just another nothingburger and I should just ignore it like the Perth defaulting on delivery of physical, record premiums, the comex being cleaned out, massive numbers of EFPs being transferred to the LBMA, the silver ETFs changing terms, the SLV being drained, and every other signal of paper price suppression in the face of record demand for physical.

Thanks, appreciate your input.

...now off to buy more physical silver while even smart people still believe bankster bs. Stuff will be tough to find when people finally wise up and stop mindlessly trusting crooked bankers.
 

ds_mustang

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Ah, so clear evidence of backwardation is just another nothingburger and I should just ignore it like the Perth defaulting on delivery of physical, record premiums, the comex being cleaned out, massive numbers of EFPs being transferred to the LBMA, the silver ETFs changing terms, the SLV being drained, and every other signal of paper price suppression in the face of record demand for physical.

Thanks, appreciate your input.

...now off to buy more physical silver while even smart people still believe bankster bs. Stuff will be tough to find when people finally wise up and stop mindlessly trusting crooked bankers.
Backwardation says holders of physical metal are not willing to risk exchanging their metal for futures contracts at a guaranteed profit. The only reason they would leave a guaranteed profit on the table is they think there is a risk of a problem with the futures market where they wouldn't get their metal back at the end of the contract. Backwardation is the real signal you're thinking you're seeing by reading the tea-leaves in deliveries. Such worries can come and go depending on conditions.

The theory from Prof. Antal Fekete is backwardation in gold means gold has stopped bidding on dollars and if/when it goes permanent, the dollar and the dollar system are done.

Have fun paying insane premiums for silver in the retail market.
 

solarion

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Thanks! Have fun ignoring every history book on economic collapse ever written.

Counter party risk during financial strife = bad. The paper price is the fiction, what you call "insane" is simply an approximation of the real price of an ounce of silver in a market with zero functioning price discovery mechanisms.
 

Casey Jones

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Thanks! Have fun ignoring every history book on economic collapse ever written.

Counter party risk during financial strife = bad. The paper price is the fiction, what you call "insane" is simply an approximation of the real price of an ounce of silver in a market with zero functioning price discovery mechanisms.
You're exposing yourself to a "counter-party risk" of a different sort, also.

When there is zero demand for electronic tokens, because of widespread global upheaval and martial law, internet regulation and disrupted communications...your lines of code...revert to being, just lines of code.

Yes, gold and silver are worthless in chaos. But they re-emerge as stores of value once order is restored.
 

solarion

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Meanwhile...on Earth...paper gold and silver are once again being hammered by bankster criminals. Hey at least the PGM metals are flying right? Palladium is money? ...would you believe?

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Oh look, one bitcoin now buys 34 ounces of gold or 2265 ounces of silver. Groovy...I might need that, keep up the good work comex thieves.
 

Casey Jones

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Measurement of gold in dollars, does not denote the value of gold...except in that moment, if one needs dollars at that instant.

DOLLARS, themselves, are fiat. And TPTB are taking advantage of that, manipulating the official exchange rate.
 

Casey Jones

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I've explained about bubbles enough, elsewhere. Someone ELSE needs to educate himself about bubbles, manias, and the volatility of prices when there is no underlying value.

That bitcoin's price keeps going up, tells me only that hodlers in their mommas' basements, are selling to each other, back and forth, and think they're doing something meaningful.
 

solarion

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Lovely sentiment, but I can still swap dollars(properly denominated in grains of silver or otherwise) for physical gold. Bitcoin is merely doing gold and silver's job at this time because it's allowed to do so. I'm betting on that changing at some point. I'm not doing that btw...swapping either dollars OR bitcoin for gold. I have stacked more platinum and silver today however...because they are now, and shall continue to outperform gold.

Yeah, your "education" is priceless CJ. You provide ample entertainment with your irrational hatred of cryptos.
 

ds_mustang

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Thanks! Have fun ignoring every history book on economic collapse ever written.

Counter party risk during financial strife = bad. The paper price is the fiction, what you call "insane" is simply an approximation of the real price of an ounce of silver in a market with zero functioning price discovery mechanisms.
I don't know what you're talking about. Where do I have counter party risk? Where am I ignoring the potential of economic collapse?