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Gold's 8 point bear market

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Apr 1, 2010
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#3
Nobody knows the future. It's only a game of probability when taking a side bear or bull. I feel the probability is on the bulls' side due to 2 historical fractals of the current bear market. I'm a real sucker for smaller fractals within larger fractals which is shown in the 1980-1999 and 1993-1999 charts.

I don't think gold will go up soon even if the bulls win because gold has to turn the monthly moving averages around before it "can" go up relatively unobstructed. the 50-month moving average is in the 1400s right now, so even if gold shot up to that level, it can't enter a long-term bull market unless if it can close for a couple months above the 50-month average. Patience is the name of the game right now I think...
 

savvydon

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#4
Patience is the name of the game right now I think...
That, and accumulation.

Didn't really understand what you mean by 8 point reversal. Also, I understand what fractals are, but I'm not sure what particular current pattern you are keying in on.
 

Thecrensh

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#6
I have to say that I GREATLY appreciate the T/A that people do on here, it's rather like driving while looking only in the rear view mirror. Trends are great, but there are always unforeseen obstacles that buck trends.
 

Montecristo

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#7
I'm not sure how one could look at the weekly chart in the OP and come to the conclusion that gold is going up from here?

Looking at that chart it seems pretty evident that there is a strong line of support around 1000 and the price seems to be going to that support.
 
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#8
Ignoring the fractal pattern, i agree... Taking the fractal into account, i feel otherwise but fractals are not trend following technicals, so it goes against the trend at the moment...
 
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#9
I just logged in today to say I was pretty close on the 8th reversal point for the end of the bear market. So I was off by $100 and a year too early. Is it really the end of the bear market? Not confirmed, yet but things are happening according to how I expected the bear market to end.
So the 8th turning point didn't happen until later last year but it did land on the support line. Now that gold is above both the 10 and 20-month moving averages, and the 10-month has crossed above the 20-month (first long-term bull market condition), the 50-month average ($134x) is going to be a magnet and resistance.

If things continue to play out like how I expect, then gold will meet strong resistance from 1340-1400 on a monthly closing basis and will trend down from there for close to a year but only to a higher low to shake out and wear out the bulls one more time before starting a more sustained rally.
BUT if gold shoots straight up too quickly above 1340 to 1500 in a few months, then I'd be worried about the long-term prospect of a bull market.
 

FunnyMoney

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#13
Technical analysis on gold using only USD as the basis is flawed or incomplete analysis. There are many more buyers/sellers of gold in several other currencies beyond the USD and they view the numbers often in some a form other than ounces. TA is about perception, so to ignore the way that most market participants view and examine the market is a big mistake. While sometimes the important TA indicators line up in more than one currency, often they do not.

A website dedicated to PM TA using a mix of different popular currencies and using the most common denominations (grams, ounces...) that those people in those other currencies typically monitor would be a great upstart. Just throwing that out there, in case any member here has a lot of time on their hands and wants to start something new which nobody is currently really doing well.