Had to cancel a doctor appointment this morning thanks to an ice storm. 26 degrees ere at human level and the ground is as cold or a little colder. Precipitation falling as a super cooled rain and when it hits it instantly freezes! Black ice for everyone and everything! Oh well, I actually do have better things to do today than make a payment on the doctor's beamer.
Found some good and interesting info on the weather forecast into February y'all may want to read...yet another big, bad, deep freeze possibly heading our way...
We are now experiencing warmer-than-normal weather conditions in the eastern US and there will be mild spells right into the first week of February, but the signs are increasing for a return to a cold pattern next month and it may very well last for an extended period of time. The MJO is a tropical disturbance that propagates around the global tropics and it will be transitioning into "phases" during the month of February that are conducive to colder-than-normal weather in the eastern US. In addition, stratospheric warming will unfold over the next week or so in the polar region of the Northern Hemisphere and this can set off a chain of events in the atmosphere that ultimately results in colder-than-normal weather for the eastern US. There are other signals as well that support the notion of a return to cold in the eastern US and it very well could stick around for awhile.
00Z Euro forecast of the MJO index from today (lower arrow) to February 6th (upper arrow) which is displayed on a day-to-day basis by the green line.
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)
The MJO is a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics with a cycle on the order of 30-60 days. It is a large-scale coupling between atmospheric circulation and tropical deep convection (thunderstorms). The MJO not only has wide ranging impacts on the patterns of precipitation, surface temperatures, and atmospheric circulation in the tropics, but also influences precipitation and temperature patterns across the globe. Specifically, one significant impact of the MJO over the U.S. during the northern hemisphere winter is an increase in the frequency and intensity of cold air outbreaks across the central and eastern US.
This time of year, phases 5, 6 and 7 of the MJO index signal warmer-than-normal temperatures in the central and eastern U.S., but beyond that time, the MJO is likely to propagate into phases 8, 1 and 2 which usually are correlated with colder-than-normal weather in the central and eastern US during this time of year. In fact, the MJO index is forecasted to increase in amplitude when it enters phase 7 (i.e., move farther away from the inner circle), and an increase in amplitude may actually further influence the overall pattern around here in February.
Another way to monitor the potential for Arctic air outbreaks in the eastern U.S. is to follow what is happening in the stratosphere over the polar region of the Northern Hemisphere. Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are large, rapid temperature rises in the winter polar stratosphere and they can set off a chain of events in the atmosphere that ultimately lead to Arctic air outbreaks from northern Canada into the central and eastern U.S. Indeed, there is strong evidence for stratospheric warming to take place in the Northern Hemisphere over the next five-to-ten days (top) and this often increases the chances for colder-than-normal air masses to drop southward from high latitudes and into the middle latitudes.
10 mb temperatures have spiked in recent days (arrow) across the northern latitudes (90N to 65N); map courtesy NOAA Other supporting signals for February cold
Two other supporting signals for cold weather in the eastern US following this warmer-than-normal stretch include the outlook of Arctic Oscillation (AO) index and the current snow cover extent across the Northern Hemisphere.
Snow cover (shown in white) is currently quite extensive across the Northern Hemisphere.
Read his entire forecast here at Vencore Weather. Well worth your time.
It's long been my goal to pee on every state in the union. I think all that's left is the northwest (Washington, Orygun, Idunno, Montana...soon enough I will leave my mark).
Any way, I just got back from the store, had to get my script filled, and the place was incredibly crowded! Being a MEGAStore and it was a 1 hour wait for my script (NEVER had to wait that long...typically about 20 minutes) so doing all the shopping I could stand I got around to the little cafeteria and I figured I could burn up about 10 minutes or so on a cup of coffee. An employee was on break so I initiated a conversation. He was amazed at the crowd too! Employee consensus was the weather warning caused the unusual crowd. Having missed weather chick this morning I asked "What weather warning?". He informed me that we were slated for 6" to 10" of snow overnight tonight and figured people had slipped into panic mode. Quick mental inventory check said we had food, fuel, water, all we could possibly need so we're covered. Snowblower is fuelled up too! So after a brief recounting of the Blizzard of '78, a real Deusy, it was time for me to get going. Got my goodies, got my script and got my ass home. Gotta gig tonight, it'll probably be a light crowd and we'll wrap up early...I hope. Gotta leave in the morning. Planned to hit the road at 4:30 but I'm thinking I may need to alter that to 4:oo due to lack of plows at that hour and sundry idiots attempting to drive somewhere...then scratching their arse trying to figure out how they ended up in a ditch. Ah yes, the wonders of a northern Indiana winter! Where ALL the flakes show up!
Irons, see that funky yellow and green down toward the bottom of your picture? That is called rain, we been getting that stuff down here. Sure glad it ain't snow! Oh, and those snow birds, they just kinda pass right through here twice a year. They take all their gold with them to lose on your beaches, what they don't lose on the southern beaches.
Irons ....i am in that supposed clear spot between the snow and rain in missouri.........foggy mist all yesterday and last night.........now we have a 1/4 of ice on everything.......my Gal has been in Tucson Az the last week her flight was delayed today a day coming back she is suffering the 70deg+ weather there a bit longer LOL
Mid 60's today and next week into the 70's. Barely reaching freezing for was far out as I can see in the forecast.. Looks like 2 nights in the 20's out of the next 15.
This is april weather. My guess is something to do with the magnetic poles being all discombobulated. We had an early spring last year too and a very long growing season.
Coming soon to an area near you. All those geese that were hanging out around here have moved north. They seem to move with open water, why they seem to winter here is the river did not freeze over and the crop fields had very little to no snow on them. So, why fly further then they need to?
We're sitting on 62°F here right now. I turned the outdoor wood boiler off for the day to prevent it overheating the house.
Seattle and most of Western Washington can expect more than a taste of winter this weekend as wind, cold temperatures and yes, even lowland snow are all parading into the region starting Friday.
The National Weather Service has already issued a winter weather advisory for Thursday night into Friday, calling for up to 15 inches of snow on the west slopes of the Cascades north and south above 2,000 feet.
No snow here yet. It will wait for the evening commute (heh)
Cold snap after cold snap in Wyoming. We are getting another one this weekend. This crap is getting old and I think this is the longest winter we've had since I moved here eleven years ago. I reiterate that winter started in September and at this rate it may be snowing in June.
3 nights and 2 going on 3 days of steady rain with temps slowly rising from the upper 20's to the mid 60's and dropping again overnight to the low 30's to set a rain record for yesterday. Made coffee, ran to the gas station this morning, caught the weather chick on the tube then watched Cisco and Pancho beat up some murderous outlaws...what a great start to a day where the river of rain will will soon flow on by to work on flooding Canuckistan and that state called Maine! Everything is soaked outside and it's warm and dry inside at Casa de Alton but there's flooding all around the area, cars floating off into corn fields, roads flooded out, various subdivisions and trailer parks flooded out with evacuations happening as I type, delayed school and business openings, and except for the two shrinking piles of snow at the end of my driveway the foot of snow around the area has pretty much all melted! We'll get a little more snow then it's supposed to warm up over the weekend and into next week. A well deserved break. Don't know the final rain total but I feel real comfortable saying 6+ inches.
As an added bonus, It's POTHOLE Season! That annual time to test your steering and suspension, tires, wheels and nerves on Northern Hoosier roads! Tire stores, insurance agents and lawyers are standing by ready to service your needs! And business looks to be mighty good this year! Special numbers have been setup to contact INDOT and the local county, city and town street departments to report potholes and submit claims for damage. Military veterans are encouraged to stay home as the roads are reminiscent of various war zones from around the world and may trigger PTSD episodes. The biggest potholes draw crowds and mobile bookies. Gambling is discouraged but bets are made on how many VWs will disappear at rush hour. 43 is the record. It's a great way to have some fun, maybe make a little money and keep the little bugs population under control.
Ok, so I exaggerate a little but only so you can get an idea of what the roads are really like here. It was really only 12 bugs, 8 Corollas, 5 Tauruses and then a Peterbilt rig went in and topped off the hole. But it was the right volume for 43 bugs.
Seems my meds are kickin' in so it's time for Alton's first nap of the day.