• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

Hurricane Dorian Tracking Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.

BarnacleBob

Moderator
Founding Member
Site Mgr
Site Supporter
Joined
Oct 15, 2012
Messages
14,753
Likes
26,607
Location
Ten-Oh-Cee
#41
What the heck is the European model...The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Model is widely considered the best for predicting global weather patterns and has been beating the other models in terms of accuracy, but looking to rely on one model over another isn’t the correct approach, National Weather Service meteorologist Ryan Rogers said.
The European model is supposedly around 70% accurate.... proven to be well above all other predictive models.
 

Hystckndle

GETWHAT'SYOURS
Site Mgr
Midas Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
7,389
Likes
8,608
Location
Central Florida
#46
New models above Crensh is posting have moved it eastward from these ones earlier today.
Local head meteorlogical dude was in the radio this afternoon
and he basically said " right now it is a toss up"
What a hoot.
05L_gefs_latest.png
05L_tracks_latest.png
 

mayhem

RIP 9/6. Anything new is posted by his widow.
Silver Miner
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
4,333
Likes
6,307
#47
So a decade or so ago, the Europeans put a TON of $$ into their prediction models and ended up making them more accurate. The US just started doing so recently, so we're behind the 8-ball as it were, but getting better.
You are on it crensh. T-Tidbits mentioned that possibility in last nights video, but only slightly. I take a 3 hour nap and sure enough the track is moving slightly to the NNW. Good call on that one.
:thumbs up 2:
 

hammerhead

Morphing
Gold Chaser
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Feb 22, 2012
Messages
8,153
Likes
9,751
Location
On a speck of dust
#49
You are on it crensh. T-Tidbits mentioned that possibility in last nights video, but only slightly. I take a 3 hour nap and sure enough the track is moving slightly to the NNW. Good call on that one.
:thumbs up 2:
It's almost like he knows what he's talking about. I'd trust his forecast more than news people. Although I doubt Thecrensh is as hot as Jen.
 

mayhem

RIP 9/6. Anything new is posted by his widow.
Silver Miner
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
4,333
Likes
6,307
#50

mayhem

RIP 9/6. Anything new is posted by his widow.
Silver Miner
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
4,333
Likes
6,307
#51
Friday night Update from Tropical Tidbits..


All jokes aside, this is the worst storm I have seen heading to Fla in the last 50 years that I have been living here.
 

Thecrensh

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jun 26, 2013
Messages
7,333
Likes
10,107
#52
You are on it crensh. T-Tidbits mentioned that possibility in last nights video, but only slightly. I take a 3 hour nap and sure enough the track is moving slightly to the NNW. Good call on that one.
:thumbs up 2:
For the record, I was a meteorologist in the AF for almost 18 years...so am not just guessing or going by the spaghetti models. ;)
 

mayhem

RIP 9/6. Anything new is posted by his widow.
Silver Miner
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
4,333
Likes
6,307
#53
...
234529_key_messages_sm.png
 

mayhem

RIP 9/6. Anything new is posted by his widow.
Silver Miner
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
4,333
Likes
6,307
#54
For the record, I was a meteorologist in the AF for almost 18 years...so am not just guessing or going by the spaghetti models. ;)
Neither do I put any faith in the models. I watch the positioning and movements of the high and lows. Have no experience in weather other than learning from folks like Levi. Tonites video explains to the GED folks like me, how just a subtle change will destroy any model guessing. I think the tracking models do more harm than good. But the sheeple want to see something even when it is always wrong.
 

spinalcracker

On a mail train.
Silver Miner
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 1, 2010
Messages
3,402
Likes
9,649
Location
On a mail train.
#55
For the record, I was a meteorologist in the AF for almost 18 years...so am not just guessing or going by the spaghetti models. ;)
Jeepers man , did you see any of them military chemtrail jets?..

I did 7 in USAF , couldn’t take another 13 years so I quit and got a job.
 

Hystckndle

GETWHAT'SYOURS
Site Mgr
Midas Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
7,389
Likes
8,608
Location
Central Florida
#56
Expand the above and look at the light and dark green tracks. They would be comical if it wasn't for the fact we are talking about lives an property damage. Storms have done exactly what you see in the past. Two landfalls and two exits.

Naa.. just a typical south florida afternoon shower.
:belly laugh:
Exactamundo.
2fers.

Yeah...at the end he ( it is what he says that guy Levi ) says what the real deal is.
" In the big picture it can go 50 miles over here or 50 miles over there "
And for this one....
Big darn deal people and property this is.
People first and property second of course.
Good to see ya Crensh.
Back a little later.
Trying to formulate the plan i my pea brain for tomorrow.
 

GOLDBRIX

God,Donald Trump,most in GIM2 I Trust. OTHERS-meh
Sr Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
Apr 4, 2010
Messages
11,839
Likes
14,860
#57
I don’t know which is worse , canes or tornados...
Hurricanes can spawn many tornadoes. And hurricanes stay active for days and weeks while tornadoes are 15 -20 minutes in existence.
Easy for me to decide hurricanes are the worse.
 

Thecrensh

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jun 26, 2013
Messages
7,333
Likes
10,107
#59
Neither do I put any faith in the models. I watch the positioning and movements of the high and lows. Have no experience in weather other than learning from folks like Levi. Tonites video explains to the GED folks like me, how just a subtle change will destroy any model guessing. I think the tracking models do more harm than good. But the sheeple want to see something even when it is always wrong.
The models are pretty doggone good to about 72 hours...after that, there are a lot of variables that can change slightly and impact the accuracy. It's a crap shoot after 72 hours...sometimes they models are very accurate, sometimes they suck.
 

Fatrat

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Site Supporter
Joined
Apr 15, 2018
Messages
3,579
Likes
3,196
#62
1567253434412.png
And if you see Unca Walt running, you better keep up.
 

Hystckndle

GETWHAT'SYOURS
Site Mgr
Midas Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
7,389
Likes
8,608
Location
Central Florida
#63
" Official " MSM newsfeed track has changed.
To match above.
Somewhat.
Still leary here because of what Crensh says about models and tracks.
My pea brain sees this...
There is so much spaghetti up there BECAUSE they do all sorts of stuff.
They kinda said the same thing about Andrew, although it was further south,
and it went into Turbo Chuckie Buzz Saw mode and cut straight across the state.
Back a little later,
 

Thecrensh

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jun 26, 2013
Messages
7,333
Likes
10,107
#64
" Official " MSM newsfeed track has changed.
To match above.
Somewhat.
Still leary here because of what Crensh says about models and tracks.
My pea brain sees this...
There is so much spaghetti up there BECAUSE they do all sorts of stuff.
They kinda said the same thing about Andrew, although it was further south,
and it went into Turbo Chuckie Buzz Saw mode and cut straight across the state.
Back a little later,
The NHC will NOT change it's official track abruptly even if all the models change - this is because they want to ease the tracks around due to the unpredictability of the models and the impact a shocking track change would have on FEMA/EMA responders. They deploy X and suddenly they find themselves out of position...huge waste of resources and manpower.
 

Thecrensh

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jun 26, 2013
Messages
7,333
Likes
10,107
#65
So now Dorian is chugging along directly at South Florida (almost a beeline for Mar-A-Lago!), but all the models show a sudden turn to the North in the next 2-3 days. The turn looks to be caused by the surface high pressure moving across the NE into the Atlantic, and a minor breakdown of a ridge aloft in the upper atmosphere...a "break" or "gap" that develops that forms a path of least resistance between two elevated high pressure areas.

Not sold on it at this point, but it's hopefully going to develop and allow Dorian to recurve to the North away from FL.

 

Unca Walt

Midas Member
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 15, 2011
Messages
10,027
Likes
15,275
Location
South Floriduh
#66
AWRIGHT...

(*pant, puf*) I'm all outa pants. Finito.

The Chateau is buckled down like a fargin concrete and steel pillbox. The exhausting part today was putting up the running-W steel for the whole front. We don't have accordion shutters there.

Some odd animobile behavior out here... I have a gazillion purple martins -- truly uncountable -- dove by the dozens, and one fargin squirrel. Oh. And Fancy Pants the peacock was on the front porch with an annoyed look -- as if to say, "OK, wise guy, what'd ya do with MY BENCH?"

That we are going to have a power failure is a given. shitdamnhell

The main thing I worry about is that humongous water system.
 

BarnacleBob

Moderator
Founding Member
Site Mgr
Site Supporter
Joined
Oct 15, 2012
Messages
14,753
Likes
26,607
Location
Ten-Oh-Cee
#69
Dorian is getting pushed to the west of the coast.

national_forecast.jpg
 

Unca Walt

Midas Member
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 15, 2011
Messages
10,027
Likes
15,275
Location
South Floriduh
#71
OK...
Dorian is getting pushed to the west of the coast.
OK...

It ain't me!! I called in my Scottish spouse to show her that projection where Dorian gets pulled away from Chateau Sneakydicker, and out to sea.

She looks at what you wrote, and hissed, "That was MY spell, and it was to the EAST!!"
 

Hystckndle

GETWHAT'SYOURS
Site Mgr
Midas Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
7,389
Likes
8,608
Location
Central Florida
#73
So now Dorian is chugging along directly at South Florida (almost a beeline for Mar-A-Lago!), but all the models show a sudden turn to the North in the next 2-3 days. The turn looks to be caused by the surface high pressure moving across the NE into the Atlantic, and a minor breakdown of a ridge aloft in the upper atmosphere...a "break" or "gap" that develops that forms a path of least resistance between two elevated high pressure areas.

Not sold on it at this point, but it's hopefully going to develop and allow Dorian to recurve to the North away from FL.

10-4, That is what , after listening to Levi and then to the lead guys here local
( in between all the hype )
I am getting from it. You summed it up pretty well and helped me.
Still , like you, do not buy it totally as a sure thing that all is well
and have even seen a loop de loop.
Pretty powerful and good looking eye it has.

And yes, Crensh, we have folks deployed as well. Expensive it is and accomodations
are not exactly easy to find for any kind of changes.
It is such a fine line all of this with politics and population opinion and supply and demand
and all of that.

Thanks for your posts on this thread.
I remember your posting about being without power for 6 to 8 weeks I think it was.
You have been through a host of these things.
Regards sir, back a little later
 

Hystckndle

GETWHAT'SYOURS
Site Mgr
Midas Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
7,389
Likes
8,608
Location
Central Florida
#75
There's more going on with this hurricane than most realize. The following link is to an RT article showing Dorian "sparkling" due to abundance of lightning. Not worth posting article here since imagery is in social media...

https://www.rt.com/usa/467644-hurricane-dorian-lightning-imagery/
Huh, lookit that,
Cool link,
that is what I was getting at up above in one of my ramblings about the colors
when it is really close.
Gonna watch it again, thanks.
 

BarnacleBob

Moderator
Founding Member
Site Mgr
Site Supporter
Joined
Oct 15, 2012
Messages
14,753
Likes
26,607
Location
Ten-Oh-Cee
#76

Scorpio

Скорпион
Founding Member
Board Elder
Site Mgr
Midas Supporter
Joined
Mar 25, 2010
Messages
29,501
Likes
39,066
#77
ohhh please already,

all you ladies getting all worked up about a bit of rain and wind,

good grief man, get a grip,

back when I was a kid, cows could fly and horses could run with the wind...............

but BB did tell me the secret to all of this these days,

it is about the money, and all about the money

that is why you don't get accurate intel, everyone across the whole eastern seaboard is supposed to spend their fiat preparing and overpaying for shit they don't need
 

Unca Walt

Midas Member
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 15, 2011
Messages
10,027
Likes
15,275
Location
South Floriduh
#78
Yeah, you tellem, Yooper! :beer::blond:

Them miles and fargin miles of removed-from-the-planet houses we saw from Andrew and other H/canes were all propaganda to get the fargin specs for building a house made so strong and so difficult it will cost fortunes. :don't know:
 

Strawboss

Home Improvement Sales Trainee...
Site Mgr
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
6,875
Likes
12,375
#80
I wonder how an igloo or a bear den would do in a hurricane???

All who would like to see a bear fly say aye...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.