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Hurricane Dorian Tracking Thread

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Buck

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newmisty

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Bigjon

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Received this image a moment ago, processed the IR data (no visible data at this hour). This hurricane is no hoax. Best of luck to those affected.
View attachment 140138

(edit: accidentally had just the thumbnail)
Pretty picture with no wind speed. 90 mph? Cat .90?
Hoax me a Cat 5 Erik.


When this was taken weather service was reporting Cat 5
 
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EricTheCat

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Pretty picture with no wind speed. 90 mph? Cat .90?
Hoax me a Cat 5 Erik.


When this was taken weather service was reporting Cat 5
Maybe check out some Doppler radar if you want wind speed estimates.
Based on my own observations of radio signals received directly from satellites this hurricane reached very high strength. This is my gut instinct from receiving weather satellite data directly over the last 12 years or so using an antenna I built myself.

My gut tells me if you lived in the area you wouldn't think twice about what they are saying about this storm!
:dduck:
 

Bigjon

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Current data taken 2 minutes ago. Green circle marks the spot. Cat 1 maybe.

Cat 5 hoax, nobody said it's not a hurricane.

1567568258959.png

1567568522028.png
 
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EricTheCat

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Current data taken 2 minutes ago. Green circle marks the spot. Cat 1 maybe.

View attachment 140143
View attachment 140144
Yeah, that's probably an average figure over some time scale meanwhile the max sustained is up to 177 kmph.

Not seeing any contradictions here. A wide area with those averages and regularity is nothing to scoff at.
 

Bigjon

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Yeah, that's probably an average figure over some time scale meanwhile the max sustained is up to 177 kmph.

Not seeing any contradictions here. A wide area with those averages and regularity is nothing to scoff at.
Cat 5 can I say it louder CAT FIVE.

That is a big contradiction.
 

EricTheCat

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I mean, it's not a category 5 right now. I don't think anyone was saying it is. Closer to a strong cat 2.
 

EricTheCat

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And seriously, what good is it doing to be downplaying a storm, one I have a hunch isn't affecting you and yours? This is your great claim to fame? Telling folks the hurricane isn't so bad? Reflect on this, buddy.
 

Goldhedge

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Dorian Moving Northward; Hazards Possible Along Coastline from Central Florida to North Carolina

 

Bigjon

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At what hour on what day?
Category Sustained Winds Types of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds

cat 1
74-95 mph
64-82 kt
119-153 km/h
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.

Cat 2
96-110 mph
83-95 kt
154-177 km/h
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.

Cat 3
(major)
111-129 mph
96-112 kt
178-208 km/h
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.

Cat 4
(major)
130-156 mph
113-136 kt
209-251 km/h
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Cat 5
(major)
157 mph or higher
137 kt or higher
252 km/h or higher
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.


watch the video. At that time they were claiming Cat 5.

It clearly looked like cat 1 if that, maybe just a tropical storm.

 
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Bigjon

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And seriously, what good is it doing to be downplaying a storm, one I have a hunch isn't affecting you and yours? This is your great claim to fame? Telling folks the hurricane isn't so bad? Reflect on this, buddy.
Why are you promoting liars?

Are you a global warming, excuse me, climate change proponent?
Carbon tax, will benefit your govt job?

Buddy.

I think you are a Swede. That's as low as I get.
 
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Unca Walt

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Well... I just came back inside from inspecting the storm damage.

I am not sure, but I think there might be a wet peacock. It drizzled a bit during the night.

Outside right now, it is still, cloudy, and no rain.

Our highest winds were in gusts. About 15-20MPH. The folks out there in the bay of Freeport have a different perspective. That strange hurricane stayed two whole days with the highest winds of the eyewall edge sitting right on them without moving. Total fargin destruction.

Chateau Snedeker = not a scratch. Nuffin. Zip.

YAY! :2 thumbs up::dancing guy:banana::beer::blond::thumbs up 2:
 
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Krag

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Every time we see one of these hurricanes there is an almost visceral crazy response up and down the Eastern seaboard. On the weekend I was talking to someone in CT wanting to do his driveway sealing before the big bad hurricane struck! People are taught to cower in fear!
 

Unca Walt

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And seriously, what good is it doing to be downplaying a storm, one I have a hunch isn't affecting you and yours? This is your great claim to fame? Telling folks the hurricane isn't so bad? Reflect on this, buddy.
To ALL with the tinfoil:

1. It truly becomes a PITA when all tv and radio does nothing but hype a hurricane. Point One. And we ALL agree about that. It's OK to start there, but we must go on to get this straight.

2. As a veteran of some hurricanes, I can give experiential knowledge: Many, many people will fargin ignore the warnings if they are not incessant. I have seen the results. Case in point: When Andrew came through, even the fargin US Air Force lost planes at Homestead Airplane Patch. I was saving for a plane while viewing piles of private planes (wrecked). The owners could not be bothered to fly them out to safety. Bastids.

3. Play your "they lie!" games (about wind speed) all you want, providing you do NOT live in Floriduh. Those who live here that have actually been through a storm will just sorta grin and shake their heads, knowing that the only way for those "conspiracy outers" to get that crap out of their heads would be to BE THERE JUST ONCE.

4. I have stood outside the Chateau, in the lee of a wall... and just put my hand out past the wall into the wind. The wind STUNG it! It was impossible to look around the corner -- your eyes could not take the wind velocity.

5. Total escape this time. Great practice to see if our procedures worked. They did.

6. Take the time to (mentally) talk to those in the Bahamas that were praying while filming... hoping for the eye of the hurricane to hit so someone would have a small window to rescue them. Take the time to look at the videos of the folks in the second story of their homes where the ocean is coming through the windows on that second floor. Really look at them, and put yourself there. The second story of your house is a shaky, leaking island in the middle of the furious ocean. There is no land left. It is down there under water somewhere.

7. Then debate Cat 1 to Cat 5 with an idea of reality. When your front lawn is under twenty feet of water, and you could launch a boat into the ocean to sail to England from a mile inshore... you see it differently.

Anyway, you are reading a very relieved Unca's Notes here. YAY. HooHah! Zounds! Nonpareil! Excelsior!
 

Unca Walt

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And this needs to be shown again. Picture yourself living on the main road up on the island (Grand Bahama Highway), a full mile up from the beach houses, way inland past the airport...

Picture yourself in your super upscale house on Queen's Highway... in the exclusive development right there.

...and not only is your house gone, but where it used to be on the main road is now PERMANENTLY under ten feet of water. The island has lost a large portion of itself (looks like about 2/3 of the whole island) to the ocean:

https://www.goldismoney2.com/thread...ead.296485/page-5#lg=attachment140098&slide=0
 
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the_shootist

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Live on a tropical island...nice beaches, warm breezes...then a hurricane comes, wipes out your house again, then you immediately put out your hand and beg for help....again! What are the chances???

Happy for all the Floridians who dodged a bullet, this time!
 
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EricTheCat

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Why are you promoting liars?

Are you a global warming, excuse me, climate change proponent?
Carbon tax, will benefit your govt job?

Buddy.

I think you are a Swede. That's as low as I get.
I do know a thing or two about weather, weather monitoring equipment and systems. I sometimes work with emergency management and the National Weather Service on weather related matters.

Nothing any systems I have accessed have given any indication that what they are saying is untrue. Even if it's not currently a cat. 5 ANY hurricane is dangerous. Not only that, wind is far from the only hazard. Imagine the amount of water coming down in one area in a stalled hurricane.

THERE IS NO GOOD REASON WHATSOEVER TO DOWNPLAY THE RISK OF THIS STORM.

Does the mainstream media over-hype this stuff? Probably. I couldn't tell you. I don't watch them. They're just selling views anyway, not dispensing real news. They have long lost all credibility.

No, I do not have a govt job. No I do not promote climate change.
 

DodgebyDave

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I've seen bigger and more dangerous thunderstorms go through Indiana. See any of the tornado super outbreaks over the last 100 years
 

the_shootist

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I've seen bigger and more dangerous thunderstorms go through Indiana. See any of the tornado super outbreaks over the last 100 years
Oh no, this one was worse than all the others. It said so on the teevee!
 

Unca Walt

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We dodged that bullet, no error. I've got my plants all put out, shutters open (900 lbs. of steel still on up front and will be fer sure up tonight). A man's gotta know his limitations. :mining:

Aaand... I got the birdie feeder filled and back up, the Peacock Oilseed Service For One replaced and refilled, the birdie/squirrel pond is up and shiny. HAH! Herself says that everybody is here! The bunny, peacock, doves, purple martins, and one squiddel.

That din' take long. Yeah, and I checked the passion flowers: my honeybees are all over them in clouds.

TWO MINNITS LATER EDIT: The sun just came out.
 

Bigjon

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This is a couple of hours old. This makes wind calculations every 3 hours and you can go back to see what it said. Naturally I did just that and it's hard to find a wind speed over 80 mph even when they were reporting cat 5. Somebody's lying.
1567604179978.png
 

ToBeSelfEvident

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I'm in Jacksonville, so we will have some action today.
I got up about 4am when one of the outer bands was ripping through pretty hard.
Right now it's fairly calm.
We went through the hurricanes in 2016 and 2017 with no homeowners insurance!
We just got re-insured about 2 weeks ago
I don't worry about water damage since we are near the top of a "hill".
But we have 3 big live oaks, the largest maybe 200 years old.
Some of the limbs hanging over the house must weigh 50 tons.
 

Unca Walt

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I'm in Jacksonville, so we will have some action today.
I got up about 4am when one of the outer bands was ripping through pretty hard.
Right now it's fairly calm.
We went through the hurricanes in 2016 and 2017 with no homeowners insurance!
We just got re-insured about 2 weeks ago
I don't worry about water damage since we are near the top of a "hill".
But we have 3 big live oaks, the largest maybe 200 years old.
Some of the limbs hanging over the house must weigh 50 tons.
Best of luck, bro.
 

Bigjon

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I do know a thing or two about weather, weather monitoring equipment and systems. I sometimes work with emergency management and the National Weather Service on weather related matters.

Nothing any systems I have accessed have given any indication that what they are saying is untrue. Even if it's not currently a cat. 5 ANY hurricane is dangerous. Not only that, wind is far from the only hazard. Imagine the amount of water coming down in one area in a stalled hurricane.

THERE IS NO GOOD REASON WHATSOEVER TO DOWNPLAY THE RISK OF THIS STORM.

Does the mainstream media over-hype this stuff? Probably. I couldn't tell you. I don't watch them. They're just selling views anyway, not dispensing real news. They have long lost all credibility.

No, I do not have a govt job. No I do not promote climate change.
I would say you are using the wrong tools, if you can't find the discrepencies.

There is no reason to hype a storm either and that is what they have done.

What causes the weather Eric?
 

EricTheCat

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This is a couple of hours old. This makes wind calculations every 3 hours and you can go back to see what it said. Naturally I did just that and it's hard to find a wind speed over 80 mph even when they were reporting cat 5. Somebody's lying.
View attachment 140163
I am more likely to trust every day radar data, which we use regularly to assess things. Peaking at 99 knots (~113 MPH) both directions. Granted, this is looking up in the sky and not ground level, it certainly shows evidence for very strong winds.

RV-2019-09-04.JPG
 

the_shootist

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I would say you are using the wrong tools, if you can't find the discrepencies.

There is no reason to hype a storm either and that is what they have done.

What causes the weather Eric?
They hype every storm these days. An inch of snow and the schools are all closed, the supermarkets are packed and the cars are piled up in the middle of every intersection because people drive with white knuckles and trembling knees, fearing for their lives and safety every second. The Wussification of America has resulted in hyping just about everything we are exposed to on a daily basis as dangerous!
 

EricTheCat

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I would say you are using the wrong tools, if you can't find the discrepencies.

There is no reason to hype a storm either and that is what they have done.

What causes the weather Eric?
I am using the wrong tool? Radar, radial velocity, which we use all of the time is showing these strong wind speeds. I do not know what tool you are using but I wouldn't ever trust it to assess any situation over radial velocity data from radar.

And yes, mainstream media over-hypes everything. Who cares? Who even watches it?
 

Bigjon

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Bigjon

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I am using the wrong tool? Radar, radial velocity, which we use all of the time is showing these strong wind speeds. I do not know what tool you are using but I wouldn't ever trust it to assess any situation over radial velocity data from radar.

And yes, mainstream media over-hypes everything. Who cares? Who even watches it?
Well in that video the main stream media was reporting cat 5 while the video was streamed. By using your visual observations you say that you can't see any discrepancies?

Come on, Pull my leg again, it feels so good.
 

Bigjon

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What time period was that?
OK, I was not zoomed in close enough. I am not seeing any winds over 100 mph.

Find me some 125 mph?
 
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