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III wave of gold/silver

glockngold

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#2
Dude...
Long time no.
 

REO 54

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#6
So gold closes down on our chart yet on foxszooze it close up 9+. What gives ? Weird.....
 

d-lod

dawn
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#7
So gold closes down on our chart yet on foxszooze it close up 9+. What gives ? Weird.....
thanks buddy

gold going to finish 38.20 retracment at 1380 soon
siver could be a smarter bet, its just the premium that kills the profit
 

savvydon

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#11
19.36, 18.27, 17.38 AND 16.50

are the level to be watched out for silver' reaction as to rise from 13.66
Yes, and the more shallow the correction the more brisk the next leg up will likely be.
 

d-lod

dawn
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#12
Right on savvydon,

I am waiting for first reaction to be completed, so as to be able to touch this wild beast 'SILVER', it so untamed, it fails every master. Last time i predicted uptrend of gold with authenticity,

The 19.36 level is achieved so next waiting for 18.27. This time want to experiment with unpredictable SILVER more than gold.
Looking forward to collective wisdom of GIM2.
 

Uglytruth

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#13
Seems if one wanted to play you could buy on Monday after it's smashed down & sell on Friday. And you could short on Friday and sell on Monday after the smash.
 

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dawn
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#14
Seems if one wanted to play you could buy on Monday after it's smashed down & sell on Friday. And you could short on Friday and sell on Monday after the smash.
Yaa or just wait to finish the first Elliott wave to finish, because we are still in uncharted water.
 

savvydon

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#15
Right on savvydon,

I am waiting for first reaction to be completed, so as to be able to touch this wild beast 'SILVER', it so untamed, it fails every master. Last time i predicted uptrend of gold with authenticity,

The 19.36 level is achieved so next waiting for 18.27. This time want to experiment with unpredictable SILVER more than gold.
Looking forward to collective wisdom of GIM2.
Yesterday was an odd one for the PM market, silver in particular. I would have thought that the strong US jobs report would have accelerated the beat down that was already in progress. Instead silver turned around and raced upward. Next week should be interesting...
 

Uglytruth

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#16
To much uncertainty in the world. Gotta play the emotion card. Market up & G& S up......... everyone hedging their bets when the markets are closed.
 

d-lod

dawn
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#17
To much uncertainty in the world. Gotta play the emotion card. Market up & G& S up......... everyone hedging their bets when the markets are closed.

The market is traded by deep pockets for their gains. If small speculators are shorting they will rig prices up, if they are long it comes down.
So the market is for those who are awake 24 hrs (has team members) are for physical fundamentalist having long term view.

I will give you example of last two major waves in SILVER.


MAJOR WAVE ONE
(uptrend with wave two and four as correction)

Wave I ...........4.00 – 8.43. Total + 4.43 = 110 %

Wave II ..........8.43 – 5.43. Total - 3.00 = 36 %

Wave III .........5.43 – 21.34. Total + 15.91 = 393 %

Wave IV.........21.34 – 8.43. Total - 12.91 = 60 %

Wave V ..........8.43 – 49.73. Total + 41.30 = 490 %



MAJOR WAVE TWO (downtrend with wave two as correction)

Wave I .........49.73 – 26.05. Total - 23.68 = 47.5%

Wave II.........26.05 – 37. 50. Total + 11.45 = 44 %

Wave III........37.50 – 13.63. Total - 23.87 = 63 %

http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics1.htm

From the above site, those who want to relearn EW, can visit it. there are only three basic laws of EW and i can assure at least one has been observed. I studied Alf Field, who is so far the best elliotisian according to many analyst for gold, but even his silver count could not be taken correctly. He projected price of 158 for last uptrend.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/new-ew-silver-discovery



His calculations were very correct following elliot wave theory to ditto, but it could not explain the present correction to 13+ and the timing. So I am taking what he labelled as Wave 1 of MAJOR THREE, as actually wave 5 of MAJOR ONE.

That suggest we will be in MAJOR THREE, if the current uptrend play out to be UPTREND.
 
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Zed

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#19
Yesterday was an odd one for the PM market, silver in particular. I would have thought that the strong US jobs report would have accelerated the beat down that was already in progress. Instead silver turned around and raced upward. Next week should be interesting...
... the 'beat' appears to have been taken as a ridiculous bluff. Maybe driven by the up coming election, maybe a market lead 'necessity' but it would seem that the only thing that has taken a 'beat down' is the BLS's creditability.

I dunno, that is just from what I have managed to read so far.
 

d-lod

dawn
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#20

Thanks savvydon

Picture makes it so simple.

As there are three rules as follow

Rule 1: Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1.

Rule 2: Wave 3 can never be the shortest of the three impulse waves.

Rule 3: Wave 4 can never overlap Wave 1.

Your above chart is fulfilling all three.
 

d-lod

dawn
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#22
Was hoping for a picture... :2 thumbs up:
GOT IT............. GOT IT......................Dude. I should have said chart............... hehe.

The 23.60% retracment of the downish from 49+ to 13+ is 22.16, so it should go to 22.16, but 8 hourly is giving bearish MACD, and the bears may not like to relinquish so easily. Is Scorpio growling somewhere?
 
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d-lod

dawn
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#24
19.36, 18.27, 17.38 AND 16.50

are the level to be watched out for silver' reaction as to rise from 13.66
19.36, 18.27, 17.38 and 16.50 are Fibonacci level, while EW has its own story to tell, all this are calculated as per rules, but we are still in uncharted water of MAJOR THREE, if this is uptrend.


21.36 – 19.20 = 2.16 - 10%

19.20 – 20.67 = 1.47 - 7.5%

20.67 –
18.60 = 2.07 - 10%

OR

20.67 - 17.22 = 3.45 - 16.7%

So the picture may clear on achieving this targets............of 18.60 / 17.22
 

southfork

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#25
That dang iffy thing is the fly in the ointment


19.36, 18.27, 17.38 and 16.50 are Fibonacci level, while EW has its own story to tell, all this are calculated as per rules, but we are still in uncharted water of MAJOR THREE, if this is uptrend.


21.36 – 19.20 = 2.16 - 10%

19.20 – 20.67 = 1.47 - 7.5%

20.67 –
18.60 = 2.07 - 10%

OR

20.67 - 17.22 = 3.45 - 16.7%

So the picture may clear on achieving this targets............of 18.60 / 17.22
 

d-lod

dawn
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#28
19.36, 18.27, 17.38 and 16.50 are Fibonacci level, while EW has its own story to tell, all this are calculated as per rules, but we are still in uncharted water of MAJOR THREE, if this is uptrend.


21.36 – 19.20 = 2.16 - 10%

19.20 – 20.67 = 1.47 - 7.5%

20.67 –
18.60 = 2.07 - 10%

OR

20.67 - 17.22 = 3.45 - 16.7%

So the picture may clear on achieving this targets............of 18.60 / 17.22






the level of 18.60 should be very near
 

savvydon

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#29
if this is uptrend... the picture may clear on achieving this targets............of 18.60 / 17.22
This is where the rubber meets the road, where the wheat separates from the chaff, the men from the boys, bears from the bulls...
 

d-lod

dawn
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#30
This is where the rubber meets the road, where the wheat separates from the chaff, the men from the boys, bears from the bulls...

Now the crossing of 21+ with stronger technical will means uptrend........................off-course after the reaction to fibo level.
 

savvydon

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#31
Now the crossing of 21+ with stronger technical will means uptrend
I firmly believe this is on the way. Still, I wonder if there is any way to draw an Elliot wave chart showing that this years move from $13 to $21 was just some sort of dead cat bounce on the way back down lower? I don't think that is where we are, I just wonder if that argument can even be properly mapped...
 

d-lod

dawn
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#32
I firmly believe this is on the way. Still, I wonder if there is any way to draw an Elliot wave chart showing that this years move from $13 to $21 was just some sort of dead cat bounce on the way back down lower? I don't think that is where we are, I just wonder if that argument can even be properly mapped...

savvydon
With EW ocilator and volume study it does suggest that it is not dead cat bounce, but for me, i am looking this reaction to go further down to emerge back with positive MACD and other technical.
 

d-lod

dawn
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#33
19.36, 18.27, 17.38 and 16.50 are Fibonacci level, while EW has its own story to tell, all this are calculated as per rules, but we are still in uncharted water of MAJOR THREE, if this is uptrend.


21.36 – 19.20 = 2.16 - 10%

19.20 – 20.67 = 1.47 - 7.5%

20.67 – 18.60 = 2.07 - 10%
OR

20.67 - 17.22 = 3.45 - 16.7%

So the picture may clear on achieving this targets............of 18.60 / 17.22




17.22....................................target acheived
 

d-lod

dawn
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#35
crossing of 1334 is essential for upleg.
positive divergence in short term MACD is evident.




1546566890043.png
 
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HistoryStudent

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#40
Major THREE up from $700 to $4,500

- A Fibonacci 6 1/2 times the $700 low prior -
with two 13% minor corrections

- in Progress maybe higher -

We just crossed the $1302 ish US $ push Friday 1-25-19

Good news from:

Economist John Williams warns the Federal Reserve has painted itself into a very tight no win corner. No matter what the Fed does with rates it’s going to be a disaster. Williams explains, “You had some very heavy selling towards the end of the year and when you saw the big declines in the stock market you also saw that accompanied by a falling dollar and rising gold prices. That was foreign capital which was significant fleeing our markets. So if the Fed continues to raise interest rates, and they want to do and they still don’t have rates where they want them, it’s going to intensify the economic downturn. That’s going to hit the stock market. If they stop raising rates . . . and they have to go back to some sort of quantitative easing, that’s going to hit the dollar hard. Foreign investors are going to say the dollar is going to get weaker and let’s get out of the dollar. Then, you are going tom see heavy selling in the stock market. So either way they go, they created a conundrum for themselves because of the way they bailed out the banking system (in 2008-2009). At this point they don’t have an easy way out of this.”

Williams says the U.S. is already entering into a recession. Williams contends, “The first quarter, which is the quarter we are in right now, the first quarter of 2019 likely will be in contraction partially due to the government shutdown. That is slowing the economy on top of the interest rate hikes, but the cause of the recession here is not the government shutdown. It’s the Fed hiking rates . . . the fundamental driving factor that was putting us into recession even before the government shutdown was the rapid rise in interest rates.”



Williams says that in the first and second quarters of 2019 do not look good. Williams says, “I think we will have back to back contractions that will give you a formal recession. . . . Even if we did not have the government shutdown I think we would have back to back negative quarters in the first and second quarter.”

Williams also warns, “This is a very dangerous time both domestically and globally.” Maybe this is why gold and silver prices keep steadily climbing higher. Williams says, “As things get worse here there is going to be a flight from the dollar into other currencies and in particular into gold. Gold is the long term store of wealth here. . . . Where we are ultimately headed here the precious metals are a long term store of wealth. They preserve the purchasing power of your assets . . . if you have high inflation you will still have your purchasing power. With debt collapsing and currencies collapsing you are going to end up with inflation. Expanded debt is rapid money supply growth. It is debasement of the currency and debasement of the currency means inflation. . . . . It’s the type of thing that can be accelerated very rapidly if you have another crisis such as a big stock market crash. The economy is tanking and people start fleeing the dollar means you are going to be seeing rising inflation. If you see a big hit on the dollar gasoline prices will go up.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with economist John Williams founder of ShadowStats.com.