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Inflation

TomD

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Though I'm supposedly retired, I still work part time in the construction industry. I do construction estimates, play with contracts, get the job set up, permits pulled, dogs walked, whatever need to be done to get fairly large projects underway from customer contact to start of work. And monitor it after work starts.

Doing a couple now I'm at the point of getting scared at how hard and fast price increases are coming in. For most of my career, 6 month old pricing info was usually good and if off, it would be only a little. Now, 1 week old pricing can be off 10%-20% off. A couple of weeks ago, we had a hundred $thousand dollar + quote on piping, valves, etc that I tried to do a PO for and all the piping had moved 15%. Any steel product is insanely volatile. Have a one-month-old quote for a 10,000 sf metal building package. Ha! Concrete: once a month increases. Lumber. It's across the board.

I make estimates for people and they come back a few months later and don't want to hear it. But the only way I can guarantee a price is if I'm given a go ahead so I can lock in the prices. Next Thursday, I'll finish a proposal for an around $5mill sitework job and I'll have to put in materials cost allowances based on my quotes plus put in a clause in case diesel exceeds $4/gallon (which we are pretty sure will happen this summer). The job will involve importing 25,000 cubic yards of dirt and around 30,000 tons of rock, a lot of fuel at 3mpg fuel burn for an 18 ton capacity truck on over 40 mile round trips. Not to mention the fuel burn from all the onsite equipment.

Something is happening and its happening fast. I've been in the business for quite some time and not seen anything like this. When/if this hits consumer level stuff, it will be vicious.
 

gnome

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Good intel.

To play devil's advocate, this is housing-specific inflation, obviously there is huge demand spurred by low interest rates. People remodeling, additions, etc. With rates ticking up and the number of people behind on payments, could go the other way and end up being "transitory inflation" fed's pet phrase. Or could just remain contained to housing and not bleed into consumer goods.

On the other hand, the dollar has surprisingly rallied for nearly all of Q1 and could reverse here (resume downtrend) and accelerate the inflation risk. i.e. - inflation could accelerate.
 

The Snack Artist

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Was just down in Phoenix. The prices are exploding there! Stuff that sold for 500k in the fall is now selling at 800k. There is SO much money in the system it's at flood stage now. Add another 3 trillion and we'll go hyberbolic.
 
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TAEZZAR

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I'm at the point of getting scared at how hard and fast price increases are coming in.
Something is happening and its happening fast. I've been in the business for quite some time and not seen anything like this. When/if this hits consumer level stuff, it will be vicious.

We could not find a replacement home, equal to ours, within any reasonable price. Sellers are getting 5-10% OVER asking price.
Even with the huge material costs, it will still be more cost effect to rebuild on our burned property. And we will have it "our way", which has a value. This includes using "kiln dried" lumber.
Yes, lumber has skyrocketed, BUT, we have log trucks, for the last 6 months, coming off our hill at the rate of 1/minute, yes 60/hour !! Our log storage, at the mills, is overflowing. If this is all about supply & demand, then the prices should start to fall, but, I think GREED is a big factor, or fear of inflation & trying to get ahead of it by holding prices/profits high.

This area was EMPTY before the fire.
This is mostly Douglas Fir, as TomD knows, it's the BEST/STRONGEST lumber & used where strength is a factor.
These pile are a 100 yards deep & growing by the day.

1617471698244.png


1617471738831.png
 

Goldhedge

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I want to finish our basement. Pretty simple. A rec room, bathroom and a bedroom. Total sqft is 1000?

I just started pricing and I think I need to get a load of 2x4's and store them in the basement. Only problem is they always seem to warp over time.

I'll hire the shit rock out... a guy could do in one day what would take me 3. The rest is on my time.
 

TomD

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I want to finish our basement. Pretty simple. A rec room, bathroom and a bedroom. Total sqft is 1000?

I just started pricing and I think I need to get a load of 2x4's and store them in the basement. Only problem is they always seem to warp over time.

I'll hire the shit rock out... a guy could do in one day what would take me 3. The rest is on my time.

If you're framing 16'' OC, figure on about one stud per linear foot of wall, that'll work out pretty closely figuring tees and corners and deadwood. Get 12' lumber for a double top and single (treated) bottom plate. If your studs are warping, you're probably buying pine studs, don't. Get some of those fine Douglas Fir studs that Taezzar is so proud of. They don't warp.

If you can finish rock at 1/3rd the speed of a pro, you're WAY faster than me.
 

hammerhead

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I want to finish our basement. Pretty simple. A rec room, bathroom and a bedroom. Total sqft is 1000?

I just started pricing and I think I need to get a load of 2x4's and store them in the basement. Only problem is they always seem to warp over time.

I'll hire the shit rock out... a guy could do in one day what would take me 3. The rest is on my time.
Don't store them inside. The reason Home Cheapo's lumber looks like hockey stick fodder is because of them being inside for an extended time.
 

Goldhedge

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I live at 7K ft and it's as dry as a popcorn fart in Colorado.

I've seen 13% humidity here... more than once, seriously! Kiln dried wood that comes from NW is still 'wet' when it arrives.

I'm not sure it would matter where they were stored.

Pine vs Dougfir might be the answer. Have to read the labels.

$5.50 each.
 

Buck

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We could not find a replacement home, equal to ours, within any reasonable price. Sellers are getting 5-10% OVER asking price.
Even with the huge material costs, it will still be more cost effect to rebuild on our burned property. And we will have it "our way", which has a value. This includes using "kiln dried" lumber.
Yes, lumber has skyrocketed, BUT, we have log trucks, for the last 6 months, coming off our hill at the rate of 1/minute, yes 60/hour !! Our log storage, at the mills, is overflowing. If this is all about supply & demand, then the prices should start to fall, but, I think GREED is a big factor, or fear of inflation & trying to get ahead of it by holding prices/profits high.

This area was EMPTY before the fire.
This is mostly Douglas Fir, as TomD knows, it's the BEST/STRONGEST lumber & used where strength is a factor.
These pile are a 100 yards deep & growing by the day.

View attachment 206519

View attachment 206520
how long before that all grows back?
 

Goldhedge

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Buck

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30 years is my guess....
for lack of better terms: the "freebies", the 'excess' for the mills, won't be back for at least another 30 years

someone remind me, was this fire an act of arson? i don't remember...
 

Goldhedge

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someone remind me, was this fire an act of arson? i don't remember...
Well, some of the fires were arson from leftist anarchists with an agenda.

The silver lining is it won't burn again for a long time.
 

Buck

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Well, some of the fires were arson from leftist anarchists with an agenda.

The silver lining is it won't burn again for a long time.
i'm only contemplating any long term damage to that region that's only satisfiable today, by the local inhabitants, because they won't be burnt out again

maybe just speculation of what it might have been like if it hadn't have burned, any forest maintenance was done on a local private basis, and the cash flow they had for cutting down and then producing anything on that newly forested property, that's gone for a few decades...in fact, erosion mitigation costs will now be set upon the property owners as well as clean-up costs, irrespective of insurance reimbursement or not

so, to finish the thought:
it's good right now, any reclamation will help with any rebuilds, but, most in those necks of the woods rely on 'extra income' the property produces and logging cash every ten years, that's an income flow that's basically been reduced to a trickle

the long term effects, by the mill, of being able to keep smaller crews working all year, maybe just got traded out for the 'once in a generation event' that, through arson, was a 'natural event' that waas moved so far forward, in 15 - 20 years, the pain of this could be felt and there will be few / no one left to remember the cause...then some stupid new decrees come into play and we simply repeat Dumb

just thinking how this could have played out if any of it was prevented...that's all, lazy Saturday afternoon, eating food..

:summer:
 

davycoppitt

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Pipe at the local wholesale house quotes are only good for the day. Everything in HVAC going up fast. Real question is when does it hit silver?
 

Buck

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Pipe at the local wholesale house quotes are only good for the day. Everything in HVAC going up fast. Real question is when does it hit silver?
what's silver?

:don't know:

being the tinkerer that i am, i just hope they continue to carry the things that i need, the odd-ball stuff i've not currently got in stock

if not, as long as i can get it in a few days from someone on-line


costs are an obstacle, supply is still key

and imho:
silver costs are reflected through ebay and on line dealers, not by some group of fags sitting in some cushy office snorting cocaine
 

TomD

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Pipe at the local wholesale house quotes are only good for the day. Everything in HVAC going up fast. Real question is when does it hit silver?

I dunno. Try to buy a couple of tubes of silver solder.
 

tigerwillow1

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Well, some of the fires were arson from leftist anarchists with an agenda.
How come none of them are getting charged with arson? The only formal charges I'm seeing are against the power companies.
 

Goldhedge

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Here's the relative humidity today... vs indoor

IMG_3700.JPG
 

Goldhedge

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How come none of them are getting charged with arson? The only formal charges I'm seeing are against the power companies.
It's not as if they advertised their intent. I think they caught one guy though. Not sure whatever happened there.
 

Buck

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16%, that's extremely dry...56% here, but that's all ocean moisture coming inland
 

Goldhedge

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16%, that's extremely dry
Like a popcorn fart dry.... some days are much higher, of course it's practically raining then.
 

Buck

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It's not as if they advertised their intent. I think they caught one guy though. Not sure whatever happened there.

they release the arsonist faster than they release the information they were released...something about National Security
 

hammerhead

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Pipe at the local wholesale house quotes are only good for the day. Everything in HVAC going up fast. Real question is when does it hit silver?
That got me to check on the minisplit units I was considering. As of today, same price as advertised back in early March.

 

Goldhedge

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Just checked Lowes

Screen Shot 2021-04-03 at 6.03.56 PM.png


Screen Shot 2021-04-03 at 6.06.14 PM.png
 

hammerhead

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Goldhedge

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Good catch, I totally missed it. Yeah basement won't be bearing anything but the drywall. I suppose I could use 3's but I'll wait for the 3.5's
 

TomD

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Can you strip the existing basement walls with 1 x 's? If you want to hang sheetrock on the existing block or concrete walls, that's most efficient.
 

ZZZZZ

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2x4s gives you more room for insulation. Check if a moisture barrier is advisable in your situation.
 

the_shootist

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Though I'm supposedly retired, I still work part time in the construction industry. I do construction estimates, play with contracts, get the job set up, permits pulled, dogs walked, whatever need to be done to get fairly large projects underway from customer contact to start of work. And monitor it after work starts.

Doing a couple now I'm at the point of getting scared at how hard and fast price increases are coming in. For most of my career, 6 month old pricing info was usually good and if off, it would be only a little. Now, 1 week old pricing can be off 10%-20% off. A couple of weeks ago, we had a hundred $thousand dollar + quote on piping, valves, etc that I tried to do a PO for and all the piping had moved 15%. Any steel product is insanely volatile. Have a one-month-old quote for a 10,000 sf metal building package. Ha! Concrete: once a month increases. Lumber. It's across the board.

I make estimates for people and they come back a few months later and don't want to hear it. But the only way I can guarantee a price is if I'm given a go ahead so I can lock in the prices. Next Thursday, I'll finish a proposal for an around $5mill sitework job and I'll have to put in materials cost allowances based on my quotes plus put in a clause in case diesel exceeds $4/gallon (which we are pretty sure will happen this summer). The job will involve importing 25,000 cubic yards of dirt and around 30,000 tons of rock, a lot of fuel at 3mpg fuel burn for an 18 ton capacity truck on over 40 mile round trips. Not to mention the fuel burn from all the onsite equipment.

Something is happening and its happening fast. I've been in the business for quite some time and not seen anything like this. When/if this hits consumer level stuff, it will be vicious.
The system is starting to collapse. As prices skyrocket less people will be able to afford to live and will reach their hands out to the government, which will just get the Fed to print more money, making the dollar worth less than it was 'yesterday'.

Make the people dependent on the government and they become slaves
 
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hammerhead

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Manufacturers are blaming the rising costs and the material shortages on lack of able and willing bodies to work.
 

TAEZZAR

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how long before that all grows back?
Not in my lifetime, nor my son's, maybe my grandchildren will see it in their retirement years.
The property will not be sold thru my son's lifetime.
 

TAEZZAR

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TAEZZAR

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for lack of better terms: the "freebies", the 'excess' for the mills, won't be back for at least another 30 years

someone remind me, was this fire an act of arson? i don't remember...
Our fire, the "Archie Creek Fire", was started by the power co. dipshits. We have 12 eyewitnesses & 6 videos. They are toast !
The 3 law firms are not charging a dime, until we win, AND THEN THEY ARE STICKING US FOR 33.333%. I guess we will win, 'cause those thieves don't work for free !:Grrr::rotf::rotf::rotf:
 

Goldhedge

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Can you strip the existing basement walls with 1 x 's? If you want to hang sheetrock on the existing block or concrete walls, that's most efficient.
I could. By code the concrete walls have insulation attached using plastic sheeting nailed into the concrete.

1x's are rather weak in the whole scheme of things. I'd rather use 3x's than those. Just frame the wall up against the plastic sheeting.

2X4s aren't really 2X4s are they? More like 1.5X3.5. Am I close?
yes, 2x4's actually were rough cut lumber back in the day. They 'finished' them over the years and they ended up as 1.5x3.5".

Some nimrod lawyer decided to sue HD or Lowes? because though the trades understood what the laymen (liars) didn't. It was convention for tradesmen, but for the great unwashed they wanted precision!
 

Goldhedge

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Here's the layout.... I just cleaned up the plan and put the rec room where I think it should go..
basement finish Storage.png


The 2ft space is for access to the rec room wall. If I decide to put a TV or sound system there it will allow easy wiring.
 

TomD

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Here's the layout.... I just cleaned up the plan and put the rec room where I think it should go..View attachment 206602

The 2ft space is for access to the rec room wall. If I decide to put a TV or sound system there it will allow easy wiring.

What's the cross hatching?

Is this house built? Was the restroom roughed? Can you get it tied to your sewer without a pump?

From your plan, I'm guessing the basement slab is only a couple of feet below surrounding grade?

If those stairs will be the only access, I'd think hard about kicking that 2'-6 door up to a 3'-0.

You could get that 2' in the rec room back if you ran a couple of 1'' conduits through the back wall framing and terminate in a couple of 4x4 junction boxes set flush in the wall. You could run the wiring on the surface to where ever from there inside decorative surface mount conduit.
 

Goldhedge

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Cross hatching is unfinished storage area, i.e., I'm not going to finish it.
Built in 2007
Roughed in restroom - just as it looks - though I think this was just an 'idea' on the plan because the toilet drain isn't where they show it. No lift pump necessary.
Basement is 8 ft deep.
I'll probably get 3'0 doors anyway.
The slashed 'unexcavated' area is the garage area.

I figure about 160 studs would do it. Floating walls are code so there's actually 2 on the bottom.

Here's some pics of the basement - this 1st pic is from online of a floating wall

Screen Shot 2021-04-04 at 9.29.11 AM.png

floating walls ^


Roughed in bath
IMG_3702.JPG



Rec room area
IMG_3701.JPG



rec area
IMG_3704.JPG



stairs
IMG_3705.JPG
 

TomD

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Already mostly framed.

What about ceiling? Rock it or acoustical?
 

hammerhead

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1617553671645.png


Are the studs attached to the lolly column?