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Is the ‘Trump bubble’ bursting in New Hampshire?

Scorpio

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Opinion: Is the ‘Trump bubble’ bursting in New Hampshire?
By Brett Arends
Published: Feb 5, 2016 5:28 a.m. ET



You might just make money betting against the supposed front-runner


Donald Trump is supposed to have an unbeatable lead in the Feb. 9 New Hampshire primary.

Phooey.


The polls were taken before he chickened out of the Iowa debate.


The polls were taken before he lost the Iowa caucus to Ted Cruz.

And the polls were taken before he started whining on Twitter that Cruz “stole” the caucus and should be disqualified.

New Hampshire is a famously fickle primary.

I’m still not predicting Rubio will win the primary. But I think he might.


The voters pay attention to these things, they are unimpressed by front-runners, and they are willing to change their minds.

Hillary Clinton stunned the conventional wisdom in 2008 by snatching it at the last minute from a surging Barack Obama. John McCain trounced George W. Bush there in 2000. My brother, who used to be active in these things, reminded me this week that Walter Mondale had a supposedly “unbeatable” lead in New Hampshire back in 1984 and then Gary Hart came from nowhere and cleaned his clock. And, of course, it was New Hampshire that derailed past front-runners like Sen. Ed Muskie in 1972 and sitting president Lyndon Johnson in 1968.

The last 10 days have taken plenty of shine off the Donald Trump limousine and it’s going to be fascinating to see how this plays out in the Granite State. The Trump bubble may be bursting.

And there may be money in this as the bookmakers, so far, are still reading last week’s polls.

According to Oddschecker, the overseas sportsbooks are still offering desperately short odds of 4/9 on Trump winning New Hampshire — meaning they think he has a 70% chance of victory.

I’d rather be “short” than “long,” especially at those odds. If I were in London right now, I’d probably walk into a branch of Ladbrokes, the bookmaker, and put 100 pounds on Marco Rubio to take New Hampshire.

They’re offering very generous odds of 4/1.


Donald Trump accuses Ted Cruz of stealing Iowa
(1:10)
OK, so I’m still not predicting Rubio will win the primary. But I think he might. His chances surely are better than 20%. So the bet makes sense.

If you really want to gamble, former GOP “anointee” Jeb Bush is now being offered at 25/1 over at Bet365. My, how the mighty have fallen!

Here in the U.S., our gambling options are more limited. You can use bitcoin at some websites, such as Fairlay. And there are a couple of small futures markets operating in dollars that have been given permission by U.S. regulators to allow political betting for educational purposes. Predictit.org, run, oddly, by Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand, takes bets on candidates and the primaries. Legally you can’t wager more than $850.

As of Thursday, the site was giving Trump a 72% chance of winning the primary. If you go “short” — meaning you’re betting against him — then you’re wagering a stake of $28, for a possible gain of $72.

Money’s been coming in on Rubio at Predictit, and you can now go “long” on the senator from Florida at 27%, roughly equal to a bet at 3/1. Not as good as 4/1, but still interesting. We shall see.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is...g-in-new-hampshire-2016-02-05?dist=beforebell
 

Mr Paradise

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I believe Rubio is backed by the Bush clan so now it's time to get the media to create more Trump/Cruz conflict making both candidates looking bitter and unstable so the used car salesman smiling Rubio can gain ground amongst the bandwagon jumpers. The staged little fights between him and Jeb early in the debates were for show only to throw off the rank & file.
 

the_shootist

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Polls don't mean anything because the game is rigged folks. When is everyone going to realize that? All this drama is simply a scripted soap opera to distract us from what's going on behind the curtain
 

Mr Paradise

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Well if t's rigged we better vote for Trump 2016! Kick the politicians out on their arse.
 

the_shootist

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Mr Paradise

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Good one ...I think that quote has only been posted on this forum about a thousand times over the years.
 

the_shootist

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Good one ...I think that quote has only been posted on this forum about a thousand times over the years.
Because it's extremely relevant and many people still don't take the message seriously. For all the times that quote has been posted we still talk passionately about who we should be 'electing' (me included). It doesn't matter who we 'vote' for...it really doesn't
 

ToBeSelfEvident

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The fix is in. Boy Rubio is having a tremendous "surge". All the talking heads said so.
 

AurumAg

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Polls don't mean anything because the game is rigged folks. When is everyone going to realize that? All this drama is simply a scripted soap opera to distract us from what's going on behind the curtain

Trump will stay in the race until the script calls for him to drop out.

The show must go on!
 

the_shootist

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I like his stance on immigration...

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nickndfl

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Trump is up by over 10 points and Rubio moved into 2nd place over Cruz. The rest should drop out already.