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Laws of Economics Show Trade War Impossible to Win

FunnyMoney

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#1
It is logically and mathematically impossible to win a trade war using fiat money when you're trading partner also uses fiat money. This is so simple. When I first heard the idea a few years ago that they were going to use tariffs, I laughed in bewilderment.

Tariffs only work under honest monetary structures.

When there's a fiat currency, how can you force input costs up?

You can't force input costs up for the counter-party or force them into changing their rules of engagement.

In this case, the currency (RMB or Yuan) is a fiat currency. By using fiat currency, input costs can be managed and kept down as there are other trading partners in the casino willing to trade in that currency. Input costs can be taken way down in a number of ways in a controlled system, not just through currency strategies. Using slave labor is another example.

The only way to win a trade war with one fiat partner is to wage a trade war against all fiat partners or coax them into falling in line behind you. Taking a strategy of getting other fiats to fall in line behind you also requires going after all trading partners, even those with less powerful currencies.

A war against one is a war against all, that is if you wanted to win something. All fiats are in the casino and operating. If you're listed on the FOREX, you are good to go, unless you're a small player. People aren't going to stop buying Chinese products and their exports are to the entire world.

Back to input costs:
Sure, people claim that if you set the bar to zero and use slave labor then with input costs at zero, you're trading partners will start a war, not a trade war, a real war. Sometimes they're right. But....

All trading partners are using fiat currency. Are you going to start a war with yourself and all trading partners?

Many economic trading strategies are going to break down in a dishonest system. The dishonest system is anchored with the dishonest money created by the big players. Don't expect the best poker player with the best strategy to win if the cards are marked and the big fiat players have the house's inside info. THE BIGGEST of the DISHONEST PLAYERS WIN.

Can a top dog casino finally emerge? Yes, but because the trade war moved to a real war but not by trade war alone.

The only strategy which works in a dishonest monetary structure is to adopt the exact same measures as your trading partner or run a blockade.

If China reduces their input costs to create an advantage, then we would need to do the same for our industries to give them the same advantage. Impossible to take away their advantage unless you take away fiat currency itself.

As I said before, this is quite simple, it is Economics 101. Of course, don't expect our intuitions of "higher learning" to explain it so quickly, but here it is ...

It is logically and mathematically impossible to win a trade war among "owned fiat" systems using tariffs. Or said another way, among casinos where infinite wealth is created by the house.
 
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EO 11110

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#3
I hear your pain, but the tariff strategy doesn't solve that pain. A different strategy is required.

It's mathematically impossible to solve the pain you speak of through tariffs.
disagree. my prescription is to tariff every import, no discrimination. AND THIS INCLUDES LABOR - flying in cheap visa workers cannot be allowed to continue. depressing wages via invasion + offshoring to no safety, no environ foreign sites should not earn the vipers extra compensation

they've used these dirty tricks to drive up margins....which feed their stock options and bonuses

insert chart showing the wealth inequality EXPLODING as soon as globalism took over nyc/dc
 

FunnyMoney

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#4
You're talking about globalism. Trump did not start a war on globalism.

He said a trade war is easy to win, using tariffs on trading partners' goods.
However, Winning is mathematically impossible using that strategy.
 
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SilverCity

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#5
Trade Wars Lead to Shooting Wars and Depressions
Trade wars were a principal factor in causing the Great Depression of the 1930s and World War II.

The current President of the U.S. has imposed tariffs on imported steel and aluminum effective March 23, 2018 and proposes tariffs on products imported from China. He has also proposed revoking U.S. participation in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which has enabled a large expansion of trade between the U.S., Canada and Mexico.
Mr. Trump says trade wars are easy to win. Wrong. Everybody loses in trade wars.
Trade Wars Hurt Everyone
Mr. Trump’s trade war will have a bad effect on American trade and relations with important nations around the world, including Canada, Mexico, China, and other Asian nations whose companies do business in the U.S., and European nations.
Prominent American companies whose business will be hurt by Trump’s trade war include Boeing and Union Pacific, to name only two.
Boeing currently sells nearly one-third of its airplanes to China. The Chinese earn U.S. dollars by exporting to the U.S. That is the source of the ability of Chinese airlines to buy Boeing aircrafts.
Union Pacific is the largest U.S. railroad. It transports goods, both imported and of domestic origin through much of the U.S. The CEO of Union Pacific has warned that Trump’s trade war will hurt not only the business of the railroad, but many other businesses that transport goods via Union Pacific.
Mr. Trump’s trade war will have a bad effect on American trade and relations with important nations around the world.

More:
https://fee.org/articles/trade-wars-lead-to-shooting-wars-and-depressions/

It's not different this time.

SC
 

EO 11110

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#6
above is the propaganda that they've pelted us with for about 40 years. we were all raised on it. now the results have been realized.

it is a well known fact that frbny OWNS thousands of economists. they pump the open border free trade crap for their paymasters. they also demonize tariffs. paid shills, the whole lot of 'em

these 40 years


 

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#11
I dont think the administration is seeking a trade war, Trump is just politically marketing it as such... Tariffs dont cost China a thing, they do cost American consumers.

The biggest enemy of the fiat credit system is deflation.... the system must create ever greater & greater supply of inflation to prevent deflation from subverting the demand for credit creation. This is accomplished via manipulating general price index, which in this case tariffs are being employed as an economic weapon against the American consumer to raise imported consumer prices. Yea, yea, yea, I know what they say, but they'll never tell ya the real intentions for their actions.

Rising prices maintains demand for new credit.... new credit keeps the slaves on the plantation limiting real economic choices. I could write several pages about this scheme.

JMO
 

FunnyMoney

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#12
…. they pump the open border free trade crap for their paymasters. they also demonize tariffs. paid shills, the whole lot...
Just because they demonize something doesn't mean that it's automatically then something good for us.
They use that as a strategy just like me telling a young child to NOT eat their broccoli - make them think I'm against it, when that's exactly what I want to see them do.

What you said in those posts just points out how bad things have become. We know that. This OP and thread is about the potential solutions, those that are being tried and those that could be tried in the future. I'm starting off with those that are being tried, it sounded like a good place to start, since the nature of the problem is long since past well known.

Your income growth and income gap pictures are problems but don't speak to any potential solutions being used (this thread).
Fake solutions (tariffs) which are being applied to those problems do not work, so this thread is to debunk that they can and then move onto a real solution.

Your 3 posts do not address the OP in the least - they only point out or try to define the problem. The problem was already defined and the solution they are trying is already in place.

What I am saying is the solution that has been presented is a lie, it does not work and they know it.

They know tariffs are counter-productive only for us, so on appearance they want to be against it,,,
so we do it, instead of doing something which actually could work !!!
 
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nickndfl

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#13
It's the best way to restart domestic industry. I think that is the real goal, plus gaining access to foreign markets. Since we are closed off to many others it is only common sense that the USA offer the same either through tariffs or other protective barriers.
 

BarnacleBob

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#14
Explaining Inflation Inertia
May 6, 2019 CARMEN M. REINHART

Despite central bankers' concerted efforts, credible price-stability targets have proved elusive in countries like Argentina, where inflation is soaring, and Japan, which can't shake the specter of deflation. What can governments do to influence inflation expectations when central banks’ policies prove insufficient to the task?

https://www.project-syndicate.org/c...-v-japan-argentina-by-carmen-reinhart-2019-05
 

FunnyMoney

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#15
It's the best way to restart domestic industry. I think that is the real goal, plus gaining access to foreign markets. Since we are closed off to many others it is only common sense that the USA offer the same either through tariffs or other protective barriers.
No, it is NOT the best way to restart our industries. Not only that, it doesn't work to arrive at that goal whatsoever. Who told you it was the best way and who told you that it would work? Our POTUS?

Thank you for posting, but did you read the OP? Tariffs will not and can not work under a fiat system with more than 2 players on the FOREX.

This is Economics 101, our POTUS and the MSM won't even get 2 sentences into the explanation in the OP because they know it's slam dunk, mathematically and logically true.

There are ways, THAT WORK, to get to MAGA and to combat foreign trading partners when they take advantage of things in the rigged fiat system, but tariffs is not one of them.
 

Joe King

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#16

FunnyMoney

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#17
Seeing as you've obviously done the math, would you mind showing us your work?
Sure. There are two points that show that. The first is related to input costs. The second is related to other players as part of the system.

Input costs can be set to anything you want in a fiat structure. You can add costs to the output, but they can reduce the input costs.

Fair Market Input costs = x Gov't fiat factor = y Both numbers are positive factors. z = final input result. Obviously, (x)(y)=z
Y is set by gov't intervention or control over fiat currency, therefore numbers between 0 and 1 are possible.
If you graph that, then you will see that z can be reduced significantly (in a theoretical environment all the way to Zero - read original OP for explanation there).

Reduction of input costs means applying tariff costs can be negated and unless you run a blockade, the tariff costs do not apply to any other trading partners and will therefore have a positive overall impact on other trading partners in the system. This is the second point.

The second point math is we account for about 17% of China's export market. So 4/5 products they ship do not go to us, and do not have tariffs placed on them. So the winning a trade war the way the POTUS has defined it, is not possible. We can't move manufacturing here with the tactic of tariffs. Not only is a trade war not easy to win, it's impossible to win with the strategies being applied.

The trade war going on right now only hurts our own people, those 1 out of 5 in the equation, we are the one's being hurt by the tactic. China won't be hurt and the other trading partners will be helped.
 

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#18
Wonder how this will play out in farm land? They're already hurting and this will only add to it. Maybe they'll ask the FDA for some sort of a bailout?
 

Joe King

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#19
The second point math is we account for about 17% of China's export market. So 4/5 products they ship do not go to us, and do not have tariffs placed on them.

If that's important, then we're better off than China is because only 1 out of 10 products we ship, go to China. Ie: 9/10 products do not have Chinese tariffs placed on them.


In this case, 1 of 10 beats 4 of 5, right? Ie: it means they are more dependent upon us then we are on them.
 

EO 11110

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#20
obama is for open border free trade globalism

hillary is for open border free trade globalism

goldman is for open border free trade globalism

nyc media is for open border free trade globalism

krugman is for open border free trade globalism

leftist/bolsheviks are for open border free trade globalism

all newspapers are for open border free trade globalism

all frbny owned so-called economists are for open border free trade globalism

US chamber of commerce is for open border free trade globalism

neocons are for open border free trade globalism

all of the frbny's primary dealers (and owners) are for open border free trade globalism

seems to be a theme here -- all of the domestic enemies of americans are for open border free trade globalism
 

FunnyMoney

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#21
...obama...

seems to be a theme here -- all of the domestic enemies of americans are for open border free trade globalism
Deception #1.:

You are assuming there are only TWO choices (tariffs or open free trade) - this is an incorrect assumption and is both a lie and a deception tactic (you obviously already know there are more than 2 extreme, at the margin, choices - there are at least a dozen choices in between those 2).


Deception #2:

Free trade (free and FAIR being the assumption here - it can't really be "free" if it's not fair)… so Free Trade is NOT even possible currently because the system's FIAT structures are corrupt and can't be either fair or free, by definition. So why do you even present that as a choice? It is a sly propaganda attempt and based on an outright false assumption.


Deception Lie #3:

I NEVER said I was for free trade in a corrupt dishonest system. I NEVER said I was for free trade under any system. Just because I said the "current strategy being employed is impossible to succeed" does NOT mean I'm for your selected alternative (which of course doesn't make any sense as presented anyway - see #2 above).
.

You tried to deceive us on all three counts above.
You have 5 posts in this thread which all do the same thing and try to turn this into a MSM talking point: Tarriffs vs. Free Trade
This is similar to other MSM talking points where a debate must follow a limited script... capitalism vs socialism, progressive taxes vs. flat taxes, white vs. black, and so on. How interesting that this follows the exact same marginalization of the truth into framed propaganda.
How many more of your deception and propaganda tactics do we need to suffer through?
 
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FunnyMoney

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#23
My point being the USA should place tariffs on appliances, so that we can start making them in the USA again. The cheap crap that china is dumping is cheap, but it doesn't last.
You are right about the quality of those imports and your goal in bringing back American manufacturing is admirable and I am fully in support of that. I too want to see the return of American manufacturing leadership and greatness.

However, tariffs on their appliances does NOT work as a strategy to bring back manufacturing jobs. Consumers will continue to purchase those items from China (because China will combat those tariffs using a reduction in their input costs) and will buy from other places. Tariffs will NOT work in terms of starting up manufacturing of appliances here.

I remember the MAGA idea and was always in support of that goal, even though I posted many times that the strategies being presented in pursuit of that goal would not work.

But there are solutions which will bring back jobs to Americans who want to see appliances built here, but tariffs is not one of those, tariffs will not take us to that goal and will actually be counter-productive to us.
 
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FunnyMoney

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#24
I didn't start this thread as an attack on Trump politically. I would have posted this thread in 2020 if I wanted to create political turmoil.

I'm posting this now because there is still time to stop the stupid, non-working strategies and pursue a strategy which works. Doesn't seem like our political leaders are willing to admit failure and try something which works. Seems like they're stuck on "it's easy to do this" and "just give it some more time," years or months, they don't say, but as we all know, getting out of a hole requires that you first stop digging.
 

EO 11110

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#25
Deception Lie #1.:

You are assuming there are only TWO choices (tariffs or open free trade) - this is an incorrect assumption and is both a lie and a deception tactic (you obviously already know there are more than 2 extreme, at the margins, choices - there are at least a dozen choices in between those 2).


Deception Lie #2:

Free trade (free and FAIR being the assumption here) is NOT even possible currently because the system's FIAT structures are corrupt and can't be either fair or free, by definition. So why do you even present that as a choice? It is a sly propaganda attempt and based on an outright false assumption.


Deception Lie #3:

I NEVER said I was for free trade in a corrupt dishonest system. I NEVER said I was for free trade under any system. Just because I said the "current strategy being employed is impossible to succeed" does NOT mean I'm for your selected alternative (which of course doesn't make any sense as presented anyway - see #2 above).
.

You lied to us with this deception on three counts - do you want to keep trying to distract from the truth with your lies?
You have 5 posts in this thread which all do that already - how many more of your deception tactics do we need to suffer through?
You are right about the quality of those imports and your goal in bringing back American manufacturing is admirable and I am fully in support of that. I too want to see the return of American manufacturing leadership and greatness.

However, tariffs on their appliances does NOT work as a strategy to bring back manufacturing jobs. Consumers will continue to purchase those items from China (because China will combat those tariffs using a reduction in their input costs) and will buy from other places. Tariffs will NOT work in terms of starting up manufacturing of appliances here.

I remember the MAGA idea and was always in support of that goal, even though I posted many times that the strategies being presented in pursuit of that goal would not work.

But there are solutions which will bring back jobs to Americans who want to see appliances built here, but tariffs is not one of those, tariffs will not take us to that goal and will actually be counter-productive to us.

you've been fooled (we all have). deal with it. no amount of keystrokes will reverse that.

you are the poster child for this epic quip: it is easier to fool a man than to convince him that he's been fooled
 

FunnyMoney

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#26
No, I always knew tariffs would not work to MAGA. So I was not fooled.

For most of the nation, yes, they were fooled. But de-brainwashing is possible still. For example, you now admit that Trump's MAGA agenda was a con.

While it may be easier to con us than convince us that we've been conned - it is still possible to recognize the truth and admit to being a victim of the prior con. While it may be harder to swallow that pill, many still do.
 

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#27
FM,
I think you are absolutely correct about fiat currencies and their effects on economic growth and social burden. Fiat currencies are necessary evil for elasticity of debt money. However the ROI on these fiat currencies must be collapsing to the point where devaluation of all currencies must be happening at the same time as all fiat currencies are tied together.

It used to be that the inflation in one economic zone could be transferred to another zone by curr NYC manipulation. However with the globalization, this may not be possible anymore and may be an unwanted side effect of globalization.

Fiat currencies leads to corporate bankruptcy when stressed. And these cascading bankruptcy must be worrying TPTB.
Cascading bankruptcy then starts affecting the banks. Bank failures. Bank runs and eventually currency failure if left unchecked. Vicious cycle of 2008 depression.

How to make the sheeople pay more and work harder is the dilemma. That's the reason Tarriff drama is being played out.
Some Chinese can be blamed for the rise of all goods ( not a falling dollar nor the loads of quantitative easing ). The hyperinflation that we all were waiting for is being played out slowly, so that drastic changes may not be perceived. Can you imagine when Americans cannot afford to buy or spend, who else in the world are going to step up to take their place? Also everthing is expensive worldwide. Step out of the country and u will quickly realize that globally, everything is expensive.

Also the fiat currency does not have any intrinsic value. The value in the currency is induced by the hard labor, services, goods and products of labor of the sheeople. Eventually the sheeople cannot take this shit anymore. The road to deflation may stop at a scenic place called hyperinflation. The very problem that BB rightly pointed out to create inflation may end in outright deflation when no body is able to afford anything.

I think finally everything that hypertiger said would happen is probably going to unfold. Sad
 

Mujahideen

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#28
We can’t win??

I’m no economist. But if we have a huge trade deficit and we take measures to reduce the deficit... that is a net win.

I only question where the president gets the authority to make such decisions.
 

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#29
No, it is NOT the best way to restart our industries. Not only that, it doesn't work to arrive at that goal whatsoever. Who told you it was the best way and who told you that it would work? Our POTUS?
My eyes tell me that the steel industry in the US is experiencing a resurgence BECAUSE of the tariffs.

I live in Detroit area - where there are MANY factories that are opening and expanding. Chrysler is spending BILLIONS. Now why would they do that if its cheaper to build in China or other cheap places?

Of course tariffs can work as their purpose is to level the playing field. And on a level playing field - Americans on balance do a fine job of competing.
 

nickndfl

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#30
My eyes tell me that the steel industry in the US is experiencing a resurgence BECAUSE of the tariffs.

I live in Detroit area - where there are MANY factories that are opening and expanding. Chrysler is spending BILLIONS. Now why would they do that if its cheaper to build in China or other cheap places?

Of course tariffs can work as their purpose is to level the playing field. And on a level playing field - Americans on balance do a fine job of competing.
Steel is just one example. I think the Japs and Koreans will still kill us in electronics, but look at hard goods like appliances, power tools, plumbing fixtures, etc. It's a good start and seems to be working so far. There will be some speed bumps and inflation will be back, but I would be content as long as gas prices remain below $2..75.
 

Joe King

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#31
Then show your work. All you posted was a rehash of your previous post. What I asked for is your work showing the actual numbers that you did the math with.

.



China will combat those tariffs using a reduction in their input costs
So you're saying they'll manufacture appliances for free? As in, no material or labor costs?



The way I see tariffs working is by making the retail cost of imported stuff closely match the retail costs of the same goods mfg'ed here.

For example, let's say you have a factory making hammers that the cheapest they can be sold for and still keep you in business is $15.
Another company decides to mfg in China and sell their hammers for $10.
Charging a tariff of $4.50/hammer makes it a more level playing field and allows the consumer to choose based on quality and hammers still cost about $15.

Now I'm not saying everything should be tariff'd, but as long as it's always cheaper to mfg elsewhere, completely open trade will eventually lead to nothing being mfg'd here.

Edited to add: ....and if a nation has tariff's on our exports, then why should we have none on theirs? It's ok for them to keep our companies from selling goods in their nations, but it's not ok for us to do that to them?
 

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#32
Then show your work. All you posted was a rehash of your previous post. What I asked for is your work showing the actual numbers that you did the math with.

.




So you're saying they'll manufacture appliances for free? As in, no material or labor costs?



The way I see tariffs working is by making the retail cost of imported stuff closely match the retail costs of the same goods mfg'ed here.

For example, let's say you have a factory making hammers that the cheapest they can be sold for and still keep you in business is $15.
Another company decides to mfg in China and sell their hammers for $10.
Charging a tariff of $4.50/hammer makes it a more level playing field and allows the consumer to choose based on quality and hammers still cost about $15.

Now I'm not saying everything should be tariff'd, but as long as it's always cheaper to mfg elsewhere, completely open trade will eventually lead to nothing being mfg'd here.

Edited to add: ....and if a nation has tariff's on our exports, then why should we have none on theirs? It's ok for them to keep our companies from selling goods in their nations, but it's not ok for us to do that to them?
Preach it brother!!
 

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#34
america can easily cover all of its daily needs -- energy, water, food, housing, etc

the tariff items are not necessities and are one-off purchases -- garden hose, sail phomes, tv, hammer, etc

the prices on the one-offs may rise a bit. the trade off is more american jobs, esp manufacturing jobs producing these goods. this comes with more sources of revenue for fedgov.....thus taking people off of welfare. local tax bases expand, lots more benes too

corporations can still produce in third world shitholes if they want to. they'll just have to pay to bring them into our gigantic consumer market. the tariff revenue could be used to offset the tax burden that the productive class is paying now

ignore the globallist vipers that are crying out as they bilk you. tariff that shit
 

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#35
...ignore the globallist vipers that are crying out as they bilk you. tariff that shit
The globalist vipers are the one's who gave Trump the tariff idea and the "easy to win a trade war" slogan in the first place.
They play both sides, just like they have for centuries.

For the rest of your post, there's mostly the same deception techniques as the others you posted before it.
You think there's only two options (2 options that both don't work BTW).
You keep thinking that way if you want - I already debunked that in several replies above.

You're propaganda is of a very poor quality. You're using the "keep repeating the lie" tactic. Then after numerous posts on that, you say we're self sufficient, as if that is somehow proving that tariffs work.
But to address that deception/deflection strategy, … well, if we're so self sufficient then why do we need MAGA? If we're so self sufficient then why is there a concern about middle class jobs or about bringing back our manufacturing base?

You also pointed to the consumer goods as the only thing involved, which is also an easy lie to debunk. You know that there's a supply chain of input parts into our own manufacturing (that which we still have and is unfortunately in a very fragile state) which is being hurt by the tariffs but you pretend that doesn't exist and you know that supply part manufacturing here is no where close to being able to pick up the slack. Somehow you and the POTUS want us to believe that by way of tariffs on imports, Americans will somehow force other Americans to invest billions of dollars into a new supply chain manufacturing base created here, pretty much overnight !!! "Easy to do" "Easy to win" --- sure thing, as long as the 2 of you say so, and keep repeating it.

If Trump had put money into helping manufacturers prepare for the tariffs, instead of giving it all away to his rich handlers, then after that, tariffs could be selectively applied, but even in those minute situations, tariffs often become counter-productive in pretty short order.

The tariff strategy has never worked in a large way. History has been pretty clear about that. But since when did Americans study history.

The Dims will likely continue the tariffs if they win in 2020. Obummer continued with most of the Bush agenda.
After the tariffs are shown not to work, then they'll trot out other "central command and control" strategies, like socialism.
That's right, the defeat of the tariff idea will further that. They will say, "we must double down on big gov't control mechanisms."
But we have a few more years before then, first the tariff idea will need to be shown as workable as long as we keep ratcheting it up and add on more "centrally controlled economic manipulations."

But that's a way off still. For now, the Trump & Clinton team will call the shots.

No matter how long or how much they try it, MAGA will not be accomplished by tariffs.

Anything good that comes out of this this tariff strategy will be good for the super rich and elite globalist bankers.

The workers will pay the bill and middle class Americans will become worse off as usual. Welcome to the status quo.
 
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D-FENZ

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#36
I was listening to a sob story on NPR yesterday about how the poor and underprivileged (and no doubt the LGBTQX community too) will pay the most for the increase in tariffs- which by the way is one of the few responsibilities of the federal government. Anyhoo- they were bemoaning the fact that those on a budget will be forced to pay 25% more for the meager gifts they could afford to buy for their long-suffering children this Christmas. That's not only a disingenuous misrepresentation but an outright, boldfaced lie.

First of all, not all of the tariffs are going up 25%. But even if they all did, the consumer would only end up paying more like maybe an additional 2-1/2% at the checkout- and that's if everyone passed on the extra cost. If the tariff is on a raw material the added cost is even less because it is an even smaller percent of the retail price.

Let's say Target retails a toy Chinesium widget set for $10. They paid Ying Yang Bang Corp. a buck for it- tops. There's your 2-1/2%. They're not basing the tariffs on the retail price and NPR knows it. But yet they still insist on packing their stupid audience's asses.
 

EO 11110

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#38
Great opportunities for other 3 world shit hole countries to step up their production of gizmos and gadgets. China needs the american consumer more than we need their junk
indeed. we have third world cities, counties that could make that crap. cut off the tens of millions on welfare and bring them into the workforce
 

nickndfl

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#39
Great opportunities for other 3 world shit hole countries to step up their production of gizmos and gadgets. China needs the american consumer more than we need their junk
I avoid junk whenever possible no matter which country it is manufactures. Just so happens that China makes mostly junk or exports their junk mostly.
 

EO 11110

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#40
i'm doing g-ds work -- and i support open border free trade globalism. you are all stupid if you don't support it. did you not endure decades of our free trade propaganda? wtf is wrong with you?

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