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Laws of Economics Show Trade War Impossible to Win

FunnyMoney

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#1
It is logically and mathematically impossible to win a trade war using fiat money when you're trading partner also uses fiat money. This is so simple. When I first heard the idea a few years ago that they were going to use tariffs, I laughed in bewilderment.

Tariffs only work under honest monetary structures.

When there's a fiat currency, how can you force input costs up?

You can't force input costs up for the counter-party or force them into changing their rules of engagement.

In this case, the currency (RMB or Yuan) is a fiat currency. By using fiat currency, input costs can be managed and kept down as there are other trading partners in the casino willing to trade in that currency. Input costs can be taken way down in a number of ways in a controlled system, not just through currency strategies. Using slave labor is another example.

The only way to win a trade war with one fiat partner is to wage a trade war against all fiat partners or coax them into falling in line behind you. Taking a strategy of getting other fiats to fall in line behind you also requires going after all trading partners, even those with less powerful currencies.

A war against one is a war against all, that is if you wanted to win something. All fiats are in the casino and operating. If you're listed on the FOREX, you are good to go, unless you're a small player. People aren't going to stop buying Chinese products and their exports are to the entire world.

Back to input costs:
Sure, people claim that if you set the bar to zero and use slave labor then with input costs at zero, you're trading partners will start a war, not a trade war, a real war. Sometimes they're right. But....

All trading partners are using fiat currency. Are you going to start a war with yourself and all trading partners?

Many economic trading strategies are going to break down in a dishonest system. The dishonest system is anchored with the dishonest money created by the big players. Don't expect the best poker player with the best strategy to win if the cards are marked and the big fiat players have the house's inside info. THE BIGGEST of the DISHONEST PLAYERS WIN.

Can a top dog casino finally emerge? Yes, but because the trade war moved to a real war but not by trade war alone.

The only strategy which works in a dishonest monetary structure is to adopt the exact same measures as your trading partner or run a blockade.

If China reduces their input costs to create an advantage, then we would need to do the same for our industries to give them the same advantage. Impossible to take away their advantage unless you take away fiat currency itself.

As I said before, this is quite simple, it is Economics 101. Of course, don't expect our intuitions of "higher learning" to explain it so quickly, but here it is ...

It is logically and mathematically impossible to win a trade war among "owned fiat" systems using tariffs. Or said another way, among casinos where infinite wealth is created by the house.
 
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EO 11110

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#3
I hear your pain, but the tariff strategy doesn't solve that pain. A different strategy is required.

It's mathematically impossible to solve the pain you speak of through tariffs.
disagree. my prescription is to tariff every import, no discrimination. AND THIS INCLUDES LABOR - flying in cheap visa workers cannot be allowed to continue. depressing wages via invasion + offshoring to no safety, no environ foreign sites should not earn the vipers extra compensation

they've used these dirty tricks to drive up margins....which feed their stock options and bonuses

insert chart showing the wealth inequality EXPLODING as soon as globalism took over nyc/dc
 

SilverCity

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#4
Trade Wars Lead to Shooting Wars and Depressions
Trade wars were a principal factor in causing the Great Depression of the 1930s and World War II.

The current President of the U.S. has imposed tariffs on imported steel and aluminum effective March 23, 2018 and proposes tariffs on products imported from China. He has also proposed revoking U.S. participation in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which has enabled a large expansion of trade between the U.S., Canada and Mexico.
Mr. Trump says trade wars are easy to win. Wrong. Everybody loses in trade wars.
Trade Wars Hurt Everyone
Mr. Trump’s trade war will have a bad effect on American trade and relations with important nations around the world, including Canada, Mexico, China, and other Asian nations whose companies do business in the U.S., and European nations.
Prominent American companies whose business will be hurt by Trump’s trade war include Boeing and Union Pacific, to name only two.
Boeing currently sells nearly one-third of its airplanes to China. The Chinese earn U.S. dollars by exporting to the U.S. That is the source of the ability of Chinese airlines to buy Boeing aircrafts.
Union Pacific is the largest U.S. railroad. It transports goods, both imported and of domestic origin through much of the U.S. The CEO of Union Pacific has warned that Trump’s trade war will hurt not only the business of the railroad, but many other businesses that transport goods via Union Pacific.
Mr. Trump’s trade war will have a bad effect on American trade and relations with important nations around the world.

More:
https://fee.org/articles/trade-wars-lead-to-shooting-wars-and-depressions/

It's not different this time.

SC
 

EO 11110

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#5
above is the propaganda that they've pelted us with for about 40 years. we were all raised on it. now the results have been realized.

it is a well known fact that frbny OWNS thousands of economists. they pump the open border free trade crap for their paymasters. they also demonize tariffs. paid shills, the whole lot of 'em

these 40 years


 

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#10
I dont think the administration is seeking a trade war, Trump is just politically marketing it as such... Tariffs dont cost China a thing, they do cost American consumers.

The biggest enemy of the fiat credit system is deflation.... the system must create ever greater & greater supply of inflation to prevent deflation from subverting the demand for credit creation. This is accomplished via manipulating general price index, which in this case tariffs are being employed as an economic weapon against the American consumer to raise imported consumer prices. Yea, yea, yea, I know what they say, but they'll never tell ya the real intentions for their actions.

Rising prices maintains demand for new credit.... new credit keeps the slaves on the plantation limiting real economic choices. I could write several pages about this scheme.

JMO
 

nickndfl

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#11
It's the best way to restart domestic industry. I think that is the real goal, plus gaining access to foreign markets. Since we are closed off to many others it is only common sense that the USA offer the same either through tariffs or other protective barriers.
 

BarnacleBob

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#12
Explaining Inflation Inertia
May 6, 2019 CARMEN M. REINHART

Despite central bankers' concerted efforts, credible price-stability targets have proved elusive in countries like Argentina, where inflation is soaring, and Japan, which can't shake the specter of deflation. What can governments do to influence inflation expectations when central banks’ policies prove insufficient to the task?

https://www.project-syndicate.org/c...-v-japan-argentina-by-carmen-reinhart-2019-05
 

Joe King

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#13

Joe King

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#14
The second point math is we account for about 17% of China's export market. So 4/5 products they ship do not go to us, and do not have tariffs placed on them.

If that's important, then we're better off than China is because only 1 out of 10 products we ship, go to China. Ie: 9/10 products do not have Chinese tariffs placed on them.


In this case, 1 of 10 beats 4 of 5, right? Ie: it means they are more dependent upon us then we are on them.
 

EO 11110

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#15
obama is for open border free trade globalism

hillary is for open border free trade globalism

goldman is for open border free trade globalism

nyc media is for open border free trade globalism

krugman is for open border free trade globalism

leftist/bolsheviks are for open border free trade globalism

all newspapers are for open border free trade globalism

all frbny owned so-called economists are for open border free trade globalism

US chamber of commerce is for open border free trade globalism

neocons are for open border free trade globalism

all of the frbny's primary dealers (and owners) are for open border free trade globalism

seems to be a theme here -- all of the domestic enemies of americans are for open border free trade globalism
 

nickndfl

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#16
My point being the USA should place tariffs on appliances, so that we can start making them in the USA again. The cheap crap that china is dumping is cheap, but it doesn't last.
 

FunnyMoney

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#17
I didn't start this thread as an attack on him politically. ...stop digging.
 
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EO 11110

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#18
Deception Lie #1.:

You are assuming there are only TWO choices (tariffs or open free trade) - this is an incorrect assumption and is both a lie and a deception tactic (you obviously already know there are more than 2 extreme, at the margins, choices - there are at least a dozen choices in between those 2).


Deception Lie #2:

Free trade (free and FAIR being the assumption here) is NOT even possible currently because the system's FIAT structures are corrupt and can't be either fair or free, by definition. So why do you even present that as a choice? It is a sly propaganda attempt and based on an outright false assumption.


Deception Lie #3:

I NEVER said I was for free trade in a corrupt dishonest system. I NEVER said I was for free trade under any system. Just because I said the "current strategy being employed is impossible to succeed" does NOT mean I'm for your selected alternative (which of course doesn't make any sense as presented anyway - see #2 above).
.

You lied to us with this deception on three counts - do you want to keep trying to distract from the truth with your lies?
You have 5 posts in this thread which all do that already - how many more of your deception tactics do we need to suffer through?
You are right about the quality of those imports and your goal in bringing back American manufacturing is admirable and I am fully in support of that. I too want to see the return of American manufacturing leadership and greatness.

However, tariffs on their appliances does NOT work as a strategy to bring back manufacturing jobs. Consumers will continue to purchase those items from China (because China will combat those tariffs using a reduction in their input costs) and will buy from other places. Tariffs will NOT work in terms of starting up manufacturing of appliances here.

I remember the MAGA idea and was always in support of that goal, even though I posted many times that the strategies being presented in pursuit of that goal would not work.

But there are solutions which will bring back jobs to Americans who want to see appliances built here, but tariffs is not one of those, tariffs will not take us to that goal and will actually be counter-productive to us.

you've been fooled (we all have). deal with it. no amount of keystrokes will reverse that.

you are the poster child for this epic quip: it is easier to fool a man than to convince him that he's been fooled
 

madhu

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#19
FM,
I think you are absolutely correct about fiat currencies and their effects on economic growth and social burden. Fiat currencies are necessary evil for elasticity of debt money. However the ROI on these fiat currencies must be collapsing to the point where devaluation of all currencies must be happening at the same time as all fiat currencies are tied together.

It used to be that the inflation in one economic zone could be transferred to another zone by curr NYC manipulation. However with the globalization, this may not be possible anymore and may be an unwanted side effect of globalization.

Fiat currencies leads to corporate bankruptcy when stressed. And these cascading bankruptcy must be worrying TPTB.
Cascading bankruptcy then starts affecting the banks. Bank failures. Bank runs and eventually currency failure if left unchecked. Vicious cycle of 2008 depression.

How to make the sheeople pay more and work harder is the dilemma. That's the reason Tarriff drama is being played out.
Some Chinese can be blamed for the rise of all goods ( not a falling dollar nor the loads of quantitative easing ). The hyperinflation that we all were waiting for is being played out slowly, so that drastic changes may not be perceived. Can you imagine when Americans cannot afford to buy or spend, who else in the world are going to step up to take their place? Also everthing is expensive worldwide. Step out of the country and u will quickly realize that globally, everything is expensive.

Also the fiat currency does not have any intrinsic value. The value in the currency is induced by the hard labor, services, goods and products of labor of the sheeople. Eventually the sheeople cannot take this shit anymore. The road to deflation may stop at a scenic place called hyperinflation. The very problem that BB rightly pointed out to create inflation may end in outright deflation when no body is able to afford anything.

I think finally everything that hypertiger said would happen is probably going to unfold. Sad
 

Mujahideen

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#20
We can’t win??

I’m no economist. But if we have a huge trade deficit and we take measures to reduce the deficit... that is a net win.

I only question where the president gets the authority to make such decisions.
 

Strawboss

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#21
No, it is NOT the best way to restart our industries. Not only that, it doesn't work to arrive at that goal whatsoever. Who told you it was the best way and who told you that it would work? Our POTUS?
My eyes tell me that the steel industry in the US is experiencing a resurgence BECAUSE of the tariffs.

I live in Detroit area - where there are MANY factories that are opening and expanding. Chrysler is spending BILLIONS. Now why would they do that if its cheaper to build in China or other cheap places?

Of course tariffs can work as their purpose is to level the playing field. And on a level playing field - Americans on balance do a fine job of competing.
 

nickndfl

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#22
My eyes tell me that the steel industry in the US is experiencing a resurgence BECAUSE of the tariffs.

I live in Detroit area - where there are MANY factories that are opening and expanding. Chrysler is spending BILLIONS. Now why would they do that if its cheaper to build in China or other cheap places?

Of course tariffs can work as their purpose is to level the playing field. And on a level playing field - Americans on balance do a fine job of competing.
Steel is just one example. I think the Japs and Koreans will still kill us in electronics, but look at hard goods like appliances, power tools, plumbing fixtures, etc. It's a good start and seems to be working so far. There will be some speed bumps and inflation will be back, but I would be content as long as gas prices remain below $2..75.
 

Joe King

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#23
Then show your work. All you posted was a rehash of your previous post. What I asked for is your work showing the actual numbers that you did the math with.

.



China will combat those tariffs using a reduction in their input costs
So you're saying they'll manufacture appliances for free? As in, no material or labor costs?



The way I see tariffs working is by making the retail cost of imported stuff closely match the retail costs of the same goods mfg'ed here.

For example, let's say you have a factory making hammers that the cheapest they can be sold for and still keep you in business is $15.
Another company decides to mfg in China and sell their hammers for $10.
Charging a tariff of $4.50/hammer makes it a more level playing field and allows the consumer to choose based on quality and hammers still cost about $15.

Now I'm not saying everything should be tariff'd, but as long as it's always cheaper to mfg elsewhere, completely open trade will eventually lead to nothing being mfg'd here.

Edited to add: ....and if a nation has tariff's on our exports, then why should we have none on theirs? It's ok for them to keep our companies from selling goods in their nations, but it's not ok for us to do that to them?
 

Strawboss

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#24
Then show your work. All you posted was a rehash of your previous post. What I asked for is your work showing the actual numbers that you did the math with.

.




So you're saying they'll manufacture appliances for free? As in, no material or labor costs?



The way I see tariffs working is by making the retail cost of imported stuff closely match the retail costs of the same goods mfg'ed here.

For example, let's say you have a factory making hammers that the cheapest they can be sold for and still keep you in business is $15.
Another company decides to mfg in China and sell their hammers for $10.
Charging a tariff of $4.50/hammer makes it a more level playing field and allows the consumer to choose based on quality and hammers still cost about $15.

Now I'm not saying everything should be tariff'd, but as long as it's always cheaper to mfg elsewhere, completely open trade will eventually lead to nothing being mfg'd here.

Edited to add: ....and if a nation has tariff's on our exports, then why should we have none on theirs? It's ok for them to keep our companies from selling goods in their nations, but it's not ok for us to do that to them?
Preach it brother!!
 

EO 11110

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#26
america can easily cover all of its daily needs -- energy, water, food, housing, etc

the tariff items are not necessities and are one-off purchases -- garden hose, sail phomes, tv, hammer, etc

the prices on the one-offs may rise a bit. the trade off is more american jobs, esp manufacturing jobs producing these goods. this comes with more sources of revenue for fedgov.....thus taking people off of welfare. local tax bases expand, lots more benes too

corporations can still produce in third world shitholes if they want to. they'll just have to pay to bring them into our gigantic consumer market. the tariff revenue could be used to offset the tax burden that the productive class is paying now

ignore the globallist vipers that are crying out as they bilk you. tariff that shit
 

D-FENZ

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#27
I was listening to a sob story on NPR yesterday about how the poor and underprivileged (and no doubt the LGBTQX community too) will pay the most for the increase in tariffs- which by the way is one of the few responsibilities of the federal government. Anyhoo- they were bemoaning the fact that those on a budget will be forced to pay 25% more for the meager gifts they could afford to buy for their long-suffering children this Christmas. That's not only a disingenuous misrepresentation but an outright, boldfaced lie.

First of all, not all of the tariffs are going up 25%. But even if they all did, the consumer would only end up paying more like maybe an additional 2-1/2% at the checkout- and that's if everyone passed on the extra cost. If the tariff is on a raw material the added cost is even less because it is an even smaller percent of the retail price.

Let's say Target retails a toy Chinesium widget set for $10. They paid Ying Yang Bang Corp. a buck for it- tops. There's your 2-1/2%. They're not basing the tariffs on the retail price and NPR knows it. But yet they still insist on packing their stupid audience's asses.
 

EO 11110

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#29
Great opportunities for other 3 world shit hole countries to step up their production of gizmos and gadgets. China needs the american consumer more than we need their junk
indeed. we have third world cities, counties that could make that crap. cut off the tens of millions on welfare and bring them into the workforce
 

nickndfl

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#30
Great opportunities for other 3 world shit hole countries to step up their production of gizmos and gadgets. China needs the american consumer more than we need their junk
I avoid junk whenever possible no matter which country it is manufactures. Just so happens that China makes mostly junk or exports their junk mostly.
 

EO 11110

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#31
i'm doing g-ds work -- and i support open border free trade globalism. you are all stupid if you don't support it. did you not endure decades of our free trade propaganda? wtf is wrong with you?

1557867830544.png
 

oldgaranddad

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#32
We only purchase about 17% of China's total exports. And trump didn't create a blockade, he just tried to raise the prices for those 17%.

Did you notice China devalued their currency right away again after that happened?

Are you saying tariffs will somehow stop their products from coming here?
At this rate that day could be decades away.

Tariffs will be good for the elite in the end. I'm expecting the Dims to continue the tariffs if they win in 2020.
And of course our middle class workers will pay the bill.
That 17% number is the "official" number put out by the Chinese government for public consumption. The exports are actually higher. Clothing alone funneled through Honduras, Pakistan and host of other third world nations where 99% finished Chinese goods like clothing are "value added" and have a tag sown in saying "Made in <<<your third world $h1thole here>>" so they can be imported to the US and Canada.

Trump isn't going to win a trade war. He is going to win a sentiment war where he can make the US consumer want to opt for an alternate choice to a Chinese made product. That is the weapon Trump is unleashing on the Chinese.

The customer is king. China is a seller. There are plenty of sellers lined up to eat China's lunch. If you can make the customer want to go to another seller then you win the so-called "trade war". Trump is creating ill will in the US consumer base towards Chinese products. Plain and simple.

As Adam Smith first surmised in "The Theory of Moral Sentiments", entice the invisible hand of the market in the direction you and the markets' sentiments want and then you have won against any economic opponent.
 

Uglytruth

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#33
We don't have much manufacturing.
We have very few skilled workers.
We have very few that want to work at most any realistic pay.
But Joe 6 pack is dumb enough to say Trump put a 25% tariff on my whatever. Price goes from $40 to $50 but landed goods only went up a dollar. Companies will be quick to pass any increase they can onto the consumer. Just like the gas surcharge.

Guy on the radio called in and said he had breakfast with a farmer friend. Asked him about it. He said "it has to be done".
 

Strawboss

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#35
Here is a different angle for anyone interested to chew on...

The ONLY way for China to truly become a global reserve currency is to have debt markets that are sufficiently deep to enable the safe parking of BIG MONEY. Armstrong has talked about this for years...

Currently - China's debt markets are too shallow. But - this trade war...if extended for a considerable amount of time - could give China the vehicle they need in order to increase the size of their debt markets. Imagine the size of China's debt markets if their populace commenced upon a debt fueled consumption binge to offset the lessened consumer demand from US because of tariffs...

In a centrally planned economy - I cant imagine it would be hard for Xi to order the population to buy all the junk that the US no longer wants...and order the banks to give the credit to finance the purchases...
 

EO 11110

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#36
china gov is ally of nyc/dc vipers, not adversary. collusion, not competition

for proof see most favored status. also see frbny bailouts. competitors dont get these gifts
 

Unca Walt

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#37
Millions of empty apartments in dozens of empty cities <-- THAT is the fake "Chinese Miracle". And China has run that completely out of gas.

The economy of China is horribly unbalanced. Trump has done the right thing (even though Bad Man Orange) with the 25% tariff.

This is how we have been getting fucked over for decades:

The countries with which the U.S. had the largest trade deficits (goods and services) in 2018 were:
  1. China - $379 billion
  2. Mexico - $78 billion
  3. Germany - $67 billion
  4. Japan - $58 billion.
These countries accounted for 93% of the total, with China, by itself, accounting for 61% of the U.S. trade deficit.

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2019/05/trumps_china_tariffs_will_succeed.html

China's bureaucracy has been able to deal with the US either by using traitors (for scientific breakthroughs), or by the flopping-fish assholes that politically represent the US giving them everything they demanded. Then, they ran into the Ugly American.

" [Trump] raised the U.S. tariff rate from 10% to 25% on $200 billion per year worth of Chinese goods that were being imported into the United States. Back in July, when Trump had initially imposed the 10% tariffs on Chinese imports, China responded by imposing tariffs on $110 billion of U.S. exports to China. [Note: Raising tariffs on $110BB is fucking stupid when your dick is on the block for anywhere from $379BB to $540BB.] Right?

"Trump also threatened to place tariffs on the other Chinese goods being imported each year into the United States. This gives the U.S. leverage that China can’t match. As a result of its mercantilist strategy, China exported $540 billion worth of goods to the U.S. but only let $121 billion worth of U.S. goods into China in 2018. (Mercantilism is the “beggar-thy-neighbor” economic strategy of maximizing exports and minimizing imports in order to grow at one’s trading partners’ expense.)

"China has been engaged in economic warfare against the U.S. for decades. China leverages all available means to achieve its mercantilist ends -- from manipulation of its currency, to tariffs, to non-tariff barriers, to forced technology transfer, to outright stealing of technology.

"There are still many who would have us continue the Biden-Bush-Clinton-Obama approach -- accept fig-leaf promises of change from China while allowing China to continue its depredations."

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And as long as AOC, San Fran Nan, and our local lib are not able to interfere with the President Trump, we will prevail. Bigly.
 
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Joe King

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#38
They manipulate their currency and can set the cost of any product much lower than it is today. This is the way a fiat currency and a centralized command and control state operates.
If that happens, then raise the tariff by that much in order to keep their prices equalized with ours.
Ie: if they start making their hammers for $5, then increase the tariff to $9.50





In terms of showing math work, you will need to study economics and learn how to do word problems. Word problems are a very important part within math.
I know how to do word problems. The problem is that you aren't giving the actual numbers you used in order to come to your conclusion.

I didn't ask to do the math myself, but rather asked you to show the numbers you used in your calculations.
 

D-FENZ

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#39
So you're saying the American consumer won't pay all that much more?
If so, then how will these consumers be encouraged to buy American only products?
It sounds like you're trying to have it both ways. You've been saying the tariffs won't work but here you insinuate that they may if only the tariffs were higher. Sounds like you're not so much anti-tariff but just more anti-Trump.

And I didn't respond to your thread to enjoin your anti-Trump soliloquy. I've already heard it ad nauseam. It's like getting hit in the same sore spot on my head time and time again. And yes, it does make my head hurt...

The only reason I responded was that I heard the BS story about tariffs on NPR that I had referenced and thought it would fit here as an anecdotal aside. My Bad.
 

Joe King

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Why not? You walk into a hardware store lookin' to buy a hammer and see two of them. They cost about the same which allows you to buy one based on your opinion of each ones quality instead of just buying the import simply because it's half the price.
....and if there were no imports, you'd be buying a $15 hammer anyways.

To have totally open free trade on everything all the time can only lead to eventually nothing being made here if there is anywhere else that it could be made cheaper. I'm for international trade, but not at the expense of all my fellow countrymens jobs.
...and again I ask, if the other country(s) already tariff our stuff, what's wrong with slapping that same tariff on their stuff coming here?