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Laws of Economics Show Trade War Impossible to Win

FunnyMoney

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#41
I was listening to a sob story on NPR yesterday about how the poor ....
...That's not only a disingenuous misrepresentation but an outright, boldfaced lie. ...
So you're saying the American consumer won't pay all that much more?

If so, then how will these consumers be encouraged to buy American only products?

The whole idea of tariffs is to cause enough consumer pain so that they'll change their behavior and demand a multi-trillion dollar manufacturing base is suddenly created here, so they can buy things made entirely here, and save more of their fiat money.
Are you saying that's not possible or at least not possible yet?

Are you saying it's not a problem with the strategy or the economic theory of tariffs in a fiat world, but it's that the tariffs are just simply not causing enough pain?

If that's the case, then our political leaders and their globalist handlers will probably agree with you pretty soon, and we of course know what their solution to that will be.
 

FunnyMoney

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#42
Great opportunities for other 3 world shit hole countries to step up their production of gizmos and gadgets. China needs the american consumer more than we need their junk
We only purchase about 17% of China's total exports. And trump didn't create a blockade, he just tried to raise the prices for those 17%.

Did you notice China devalued their currency right away again after that happened?

Are you saying tariffs will somehow stop their products from coming here?
At this rate that day could be decades away.

Tariffs will be good for the elite in the end. I'm expecting the Dims to continue the tariffs if they win in 2020.
And of course our middle class workers will pay the bill.
 

FunnyMoney

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#43
.. you are all stupid if you don't support it....
No we are not stupid. We want MAGA to happen.
But we want a strategy that WORKS !!! How is that stupid?

You think trump is using a strategy which works, but you are incorrect.
We need to bring manufacturing back to our nation the same way other nation's have created it for theirs and the way we used to do things when we weren't controlled by secret meeting politicians. We need to stop the wall street and banker thefts. Trump said he was going to work for us but he is doing things which are good for globalists, not for us. There are strategies which work. Tariffs will never work.
 

oldgaranddad

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#44
We only purchase about 17% of China's total exports. And trump didn't create a blockade, he just tried to raise the prices for those 17%.

Did you notice China devalued their currency right away again after that happened?

Are you saying tariffs will somehow stop their products from coming here?
At this rate that day could be decades away.

Tariffs will be good for the elite in the end. I'm expecting the Dims to continue the tariffs if they win in 2020.
And of course our middle class workers will pay the bill.
That 17% number is the "official" number put out by the Chinese government for public consumption. The exports are actually higher. Clothing alone funneled through Honduras, Pakistan and host of other third world nations where 99% finished Chinese goods like clothing are "value added" and have a tag sown in saying "Made in <<<your third world $h1thole here>>" so they can be imported to the US and Canada.

Trump isn't going to win a trade war. He is going to win a sentiment war where he can make the US consumer want to opt for an alternate choice to a Chinese made product. That is the weapon Trump is unleashing on the Chinese.

The customer is king. China is a seller. There are plenty of sellers lined up to eat China's lunch. If you can make the customer want to go to another seller then you win the so-called "trade war". Trump is creating ill will in the US consumer base towards Chinese products. Plain and simple.

As Adam Smith first surmised in "The Theory of Moral Sentiments", entice the invisible hand of the market in the direction you and the markets' sentiments want and then you have won against any economic opponent.
 

FunnyMoney

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#45
Then show your work....

So you're saying they'll manufacture appliances for free? As in, no material or labor costs?
They manipulate their currency and can set the cost of any product much lower than it is today. This is the way a fiat currency and a centralized command and control state operates.

In terms of showing math work, you will need to study economics and learn how to do word problems. Word problems are a very important part within math.
 

FunnyMoney

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#46
...

Trump isn't going to win a trade war. He is going to win a sentiment war where he can make the US consumer want to opt for an alternate choice to a Chinese made product. That is the weapon Trump is unleashing on the Chinese.....
Yes, that's already been mentioned in a prior post of mine in this thread. I understand trump's stated goal for the strategy.

But what you're talking about won't happen without a blockade or some other strategy - American consumers will be unable to force American business to invest literally trillions of dollars into bringing back our manufacturing base by raising the price of things. We live in a FIAT world, prices end up being what the elite bankers set them at and alternatives don't just magically appear.

Prices may go up for American workers and those prices may go up a whole lot, but that doesn't instantly bring back our manufacturing base, not this year and not even in 5 years. The tariff strategy will not work.
 

Uglytruth

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#47
We don't have much manufacturing.
We have very few skilled workers.
We have very few that want to work at most any realistic pay.
But Joe 6 pack is dumb enough to say Trump put a 25% tariff on my whatever. Price goes from $40 to $50 but landed goods only went up a dollar. Companies will be quick to pass any increase they can onto the consumer. Just like the gas surcharge.

Guy on the radio called in and said he had breakfast with a farmer friend. Asked him about it. He said "it has to be done".
 

Strawboss

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#49
Here is a different angle for anyone interested to chew on...

The ONLY way for China to truly become a global reserve currency is to have debt markets that are sufficiently deep to enable the safe parking of BIG MONEY. Armstrong has talked about this for years...

Currently - China's debt markets are too shallow. But - this trade war...if extended for a considerable amount of time - could give China the vehicle they need in order to increase the size of their debt markets. Imagine the size of China's debt markets if their populace commenced upon a debt fueled consumption binge to offset the lessened consumer demand from US because of tariffs...

In a centrally planned economy - I cant imagine it would be hard for Xi to order the population to buy all the junk that the US no longer wants...and order the banks to give the credit to finance the purchases...
 

EO 11110

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#50
china gov is ally of nyc/dc vipers, not adversary. collusion, not competition

for proof see most favored status. also see frbny bailouts. competitors dont get these gifts
 

Unca Walt

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#51
Millions of empty apartments in dozens of empty cities <-- THAT is the fake "Chinese Miracle". And China has run that completely out of gas.

The economy of China is horribly unbalanced. Trump has done the right thing (even though Bad Man Orange) with the 25% tariff.

This is how we have been getting fucked over for decades:

The countries with which the U.S. had the largest trade deficits (goods and services) in 2018 were:
  1. China - $379 billion
  2. Mexico - $78 billion
  3. Germany - $67 billion
  4. Japan - $58 billion.
These countries accounted for 93% of the total, with China, by itself, accounting for 61% of the U.S. trade deficit.

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2019/05/trumps_china_tariffs_will_succeed.html

China's bureaucracy has been able to deal with the US either by using traitors (for scientific breakthroughs), or by the flopping-fish assholes that politically represent the US giving them everything they demanded. Then, they ran into the Ugly American.

" [Trump] raised the U.S. tariff rate from 10% to 25% on $200 billion per year worth of Chinese goods that were being imported into the United States. Back in July, when Trump had initially imposed the 10% tariffs on Chinese imports, China responded by imposing tariffs on $110 billion of U.S. exports to China. [Note: Raising tariffs on $110BB is fucking stupid when your dick is on the block for anywhere from $379BB to $540BB.] Right?

"Trump also threatened to place tariffs on the other Chinese goods being imported each year into the United States. This gives the U.S. leverage that China can’t match. As a result of its mercantilist strategy, China exported $540 billion worth of goods to the U.S. but only let $121 billion worth of U.S. goods into China in 2018. (Mercantilism is the “beggar-thy-neighbor” economic strategy of maximizing exports and minimizing imports in order to grow at one’s trading partners’ expense.)

"China has been engaged in economic warfare against the U.S. for decades. China leverages all available means to achieve its mercantilist ends -- from manipulation of its currency, to tariffs, to non-tariff barriers, to forced technology transfer, to outright stealing of technology.

"There are still many who would have us continue the Biden-Bush-Clinton-Obama approach -- accept fig-leaf promises of change from China while allowing China to continue its depredations."

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And as long as AOC, San Fran Nan, and our local lib are not able to interfere with the President Trump, we will prevail. Bigly.
 
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Joe King

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#52
They manipulate their currency and can set the cost of any product much lower than it is today. This is the way a fiat currency and a centralized command and control state operates.
If that happens, then raise the tariff by that much in order to keep their prices equalized with ours.
Ie: if they start making their hammers for $5, then increase the tariff to $9.50





In terms of showing math work, you will need to study economics and learn how to do word problems. Word problems are a very important part within math.
I know how to do word problems. The problem is that you aren't giving the actual numbers you used in order to come to your conclusion.

I didn't ask to do the math myself, but rather asked you to show the numbers you used in your calculations.
 

D-FENZ

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#53
So you're saying the American consumer won't pay all that much more?
If so, then how will these consumers be encouraged to buy American only products?
It sounds like you're trying to have it both ways. You've been saying the tariffs won't work but here you insinuate that they may if only the tariffs were higher. Sounds like you're not so much anti-tariff but just more anti-Trump.

And I didn't respond to your thread to enjoin your anti-Trump soliloquy. I've already heard it ad nauseam. It's like getting hit in the same sore spot on my head time and time again. And yes, it does make my head hurt...

The only reason I responded was that I heard the BS story about tariffs on NPR that I had referenced and thought it would fit here as an anecdotal aside. My Bad.
 

FunnyMoney

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#54
If that happens, then raise the tariff by that much in order to keep their prices equalized with ours.
Ie: if they start making their hammers for $5, then increase the tariff to $9.50 .
1.
That won't work. We are not their only trading partner. In a 2 person poker game, that might have a chance to work, as long as both sides manipulate their fiats equally.

2.
However, this is not a 2 person poker game and it's not an honest poker game. What we have is several global poker games going on at once with several big, medium and small casinos in the mix. Each with dishonest monetary systems in use which have varying degrees of theft and crime associated with them depending upon the size of the casino issuing chips - this is all worked out by the bankers in the forex. We don't account for half of China's exports - we account for less than one-fifth of them, something which will be a hard barrier or "show stopper" issue for the tariff strategy.

3.
Your strategy doesn't work because of what will happen with the other 4/5 of their exports under those price changes.

4.
To win a trade war using tariffs you must think in those global and fiat terms. Under current structures, a tariff war against one will need to be worked against all and that's just the start of the problems associated with the strategy.

5.
I don't believe "winning" was ever really part of their goal, because they know all the above also. Extracting more wealth from middle class Americans was their only real goal all along - something which is noticeable with just about everything they do.
 
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Joe King

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#55
Why not? You walk into a hardware store lookin' to buy a hammer and see two of them. They cost about the same which allows you to buy one based on your opinion of each ones quality instead of just buying the import simply because it's half the price.
....and if there were no imports, you'd be buying a $15 hammer anyways.

To have totally open free trade on everything all the time can only lead to eventually nothing being made here if there is anywhere else that it could be made cheaper. I'm for international trade, but not at the expense of all my fellow countrymens jobs.
...and again I ask, if the other country(s) already tariff our stuff, what's wrong with slapping that same tariff on their stuff coming here?
 

FunnyMoney

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#56
It sounds like you're trying to have it both ways. ...
No, I was just pointing out the flaw in the argument as presented. What I was responding to said we need prices to go up so consumers will look elsewhere, but it then said that prices wouldn't move up much. … uhm, how does that make sense ?????

I was just pointing out the total disconnect in that argument. I never said that raising prices would work out to bring back MAGA - I simply said how can you say "prices must go up but they're not going up" and then say the strategy is working ????
 

FunnyMoney

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#57
Why not? You walk into a hardware store lookin' to buy ...

To have totally open free trade on everything all the time can only lead to eventually nothing being made here if there is anywhere else that it could be made cheaper. I'm for international trade, but not at the expense of all my fellow countrymens jobs.
...and again I ask, if the other country(s) already tariff our stuff, what's wrong with slapping that same tariff on their stuff coming here?
I never mentioned "totally open free trade on everything all the time"
Where did I propose that? Why do you and others keep trying to make this thread about that? I NEVER EVER proposed that nor do I believe it to be a solution. Instead it's just another tactic within a corrupt, dishonest system which will not work and will be counter-productive to MAGA.
I already said that before.

For "slapping same thing" on them, well, you can do that, right or wrong. it will bring money into gov't coffers at the expense of middle class workers BUT IT WILL NOT CREATE MAGA.
But sure, you can use that tactic for other agendas (like further destruction of the middle class) but it's a lie to say that tactic can bring back our manufacturing base or create MAGA.

There are solutions that can work, even under the dishonest fiat systems in place - just not any you will hear from the left, or from the supposed right, or from the 5-D chess team.

For the "why not," well, all you have to do is read paragraphs #2 through 4, of my response post just above your post to understand why not.

Don't forget to read paragraph #5 also - it is fully in line with past and recent history as well as current policy - recognition of the status quo truth.
Recognition of the current state of things in a truthful way is required. To fix a problem you must first recognize the entire problem and unerstand it. If you fail to recognize it, you've lost before starting. To get out of a hole, you must first stop digging.
 
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Joe King

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#58
I never mentioned "totally open free trade on everything all the time"
Where did I propose that?
Ok @FunnyMoney , so that means you support some tariffs then. Which ones?



Why do you and others keep trying to make this thread about that?
Because you appear to rail against any amount of tariff's at all. Tell us, which ones do you support?
 
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FunnyMoney

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#59
Ok @FunnyMoney , so that means you support some tariffs then. Which ones?
Because you appear to rail against any amount of tariff's at all. Tell us, which ones do you support?
I wouldn't rail against them if I thought they would work to create MAGA or bring back a manufacturing base to our nation.

Since they don't work in their present form I will rail against them. I already said, a tariff war against one will need to be a tariff war against all for it to have some impact. That "some impact" can be mitigated by the various players and corrupt, unfair, dishonest economic and monetary systems currently in place. So eventually the trade war must move on to a real war to finally succeed.

There are numerous ways to help bring on MAGA or bring back jobs or bring back our manufacturing base. Tariffs and open global trade are at the extreme ends of the options set and neither of those will work.

We live in a fiat world with economic structures riddled with top-down, command and control characteristics.
Given that, to bring on MAGA or bring back middle class, good paying jobs and a self-sufficient industrial base into our country therefore requires selecting a strategy which will work in this situation.

I am a firm believer in the middle class and want to see something put in place that will work for the middle class.
Tariffs on imports and tax cuts for the rich and for big business do NOT help the middle class of today's economy.

Absolutely nothing of real substance has been tried to help the middle class for over 3 decades.

Yet Trump said it would be "easy" but how can it be easy if what he is doing logically and mathematically does not work?

Trump could have appointed non-GS employees into his cabinet. There are people who understand economics who are not beholden to the globalist elite. Why didn't he appoint them?
 

Joe King

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#60
Since they don't work in their present form I will rail against them.
Ok, but you said:

I never mentioned "totally open free trade on everything all the time"
Where did I propose that?
If you aren't for "totally open free trade on everything all the time", then what's the middle ground? Full tariff's on one side, none on the other. We've established that you aren't for having none, so where exactly on that spectrum do you fall?
 

FunnyMoney

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#61
Ok, ...
If you aren't for "totally open free trade on everything all the time", then what's the middle ground? Full tariff's on one side, none on the other. We've established that you aren't for having none, so where exactly on that spectrum do you fall?
I'm not in the spectrum or the "middle ground" as you call it. I'm outside the box, HOWEVER, there have been some great ideas coming out of economics in the middle ground you allude to. For example, did you notice on this last round of tariffs how the currencies have moved? Last time there was talk in the MSM about currency manipulators, they rolled out the TARP program. Why can we be so creative when it comes to helping the banks? But then deep economic thought is absent when it comes to helping the middle class?

Whenever it's about helping real working people, nothing creative ever happens unless there's an election brewing. Trump had some great speeches during the election, but now , for the last 2 years those debates go immediately into the framed debates and with ideas on the extremes only.

But like I said in the paragraph above, there's some neat ideas in the middle of the spectrum that I would entertain but I'm not in the spectrum at all.

For me, and this is JMHO - I think even many members here who don't study economics will have plenty of good ideas, many better than mine. But since you asked, for me, I want to go directly at MAGA head on.

JMHO, but I want our industrial and economic base to expand. I want to see American workers allowed to compete in a fair way. But as you already mentioned, most of the things I want to see are very unlikely to happen. The people behind the thefts which prevent those things aren't going to stop stealing so easily.
 

Bigfoot

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#62
Why not? You walk into a hardware store lookin' to buy a hammer and see two of them. They cost about the same which allows you to buy one based on your opinion of each ones quality instead of just buying the import simply because it's half the price.
....and if there were no imports, you'd be buying a $15 hammer anyways.
If I don't have the right to buy an imported hammer for $10 dollars, then that's no different from stealing $5 from my pocket to give to someone else. It's forced wealth redistribution. Additionally, pricing is then set by central planners instead of a real market, which opens the door to all sorts of special interest influence and corruption.

The only way you could get me to support tariffs is if you eliminated the income tax and capital gains taxes completely and used tariffs instead. Even then, the tariffs should be minimal with the target being only to run the cost of legitimate government activity, not to punish or politically manipulate the international markets.
 
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oldgaranddad

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#63
If I don't have the right to buy an imported hammer for $10 dollars, then that's no different from stealing $5 from my pocket to give to someone else. It's forced wealth redistribution. Additionally, pricing is then set by central planners instead of a real market....
Freedom of commerce is only protected/guaranteed within the borders of the country. Outside of the country all bets are off. No where does the commerce clause give you the right to buy something from outside of the country. International trade is allowed and encouraged to an extent by the government because it benefits the government since that was originally the main source of income for the government from tariffs.
 

FunnyMoney

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#64
Freedom of commerce is only protected/guaranteed within the borders of the country. Outside of the country all bets are off. No where does the commerce clause give you the right to buy something from outside of the country. International trade is allowed and encouraged to an extent by the government because it benefits the government since that was originally the main source of income for the government from tariffs.
That makes sense and all true. It works in the situation originally.

But from where we are today, the tariffs won't bring on MAGA or bring back our manufacturing and industrial base.

We currently either buy 90% of our non agricultural products from outside the nation or build products with a supply chain that includes to a very significant degree international sources.

Tariffs won't suddenly change that, not this year and not in 10 years - the strategy doesn't arrive at MAGA, not easily and not at all. It takes trillions of dollars of investment to rebuild a manufacturing base, the tariffs revenue is not going into that and it wouldn't be enough even if it did.

Why didn't trump stick to his election goals? The entire focus is on what we can do to them, tariff them, have a war with them. It's never about us and what we could and can do. He wants to blame them, when it's his own friends in business and he himself included that's moved manufacturing outside the nation.

Our leaders, in all the branches, they always knew the peg would do that. Why have they never mentioned the peg? Even today that word is taboo in the media and political circles. Did anyone ever think to ask why that is? Is there a single member here that knows why that is? I have my suspicions but they are just that, only suspicions.
 

Bigfoot

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#65
Freedom of commerce is only protected/guaranteed within the borders of the country. Outside of the country all bets are off. No where does the commerce clause give you the right to buy something from outside of the country.
No. The commerce clause doesn't grant me any rights. Rights are natural and God-given to all humans. If I buy something at the street market in Mumbai, I have the exact same rights as I did in New York City. Whether government thugs in either place are successful at stealing my belongings or not, doesn't change my God-given rights.

"The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.” - Amendment IX

Only when I bring a foreign-made product into the US, do tariffs apply, and again, the purpose isn't to prevent me from acquiring foreign products or associating with foreigners, the purpose is a tax to run the government.

"The Congress shall have the Power to lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defense and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States." -Article I, Section 8

Also, Donald Trump, or any president, shouldn't be doing a job specifically given to Congress by the US Constitution.
 
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Joe King

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#66
I'm not in the spectrum or the "middle ground" as you call it.
Yes, you most certainly are. You said you do not support full-on open trade on everyting all the time, and you also do not support tariff's on everyting either.

The question was, if on one end of the spectrum there are no tariff's on anything and the other end has tariff's on everything, where along that spectrum do you fall?

It's an honest question because you are on-record as having said that you do not support no-tariff free trade on everything. That statement alone says that you are in fact somewhere betwixt the two.

I never mentioned "totally open free trade on everything all the time"
Where did I propose that?
How can you be against that, but also be against tariff's too? It's gotta be one or the other. If there's trade at all, tariff's either apply all the time, none of the time, or some of the time.

I'm just trying to get you to clarify your conflicting statements that you've made. Personally, the more I read the more I think you're just shootin' from the hip on most of this stuff. Prove me wrong. Explain how not being for "totally open free trade on everything all the time" also means being against tariff's.

What other kind of trade is there? It's either tariffed or it's not.
 

Joe King

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#67
If I don't have the right to buy an imported hammer for $10 dollars, then that's no different from stealing $5 from my pocket to give to someone else. It's forced wealth redistribution. Additionally, pricing is then set by central planners instead of a real market, which opens the door to all sorts of special interest influence and corruption.
So how do we prevent all mfg'ing to not move to wherever the cheapest costs are?
....and if you notice in my example, the import is still cheaper than the domesticly made product. That still allows for price competition and maintains pressure on American mfr's to continue looking for ways to become more efficient. Ie: it's not a straight up protectionist move. It's move designed to not have all of our mfr's run out of business due to suddenly having stuff dumped on the market at a price they have no quick way to compete with.

Personally, I wish everything could be done with totally open free trade all the time, but we can't do that yet due to the fact it would decimate our industries.
Perhaps we could have a two-teir system where developed nations with similar standards of living engage in free trade all the time on everything, and have another tier for those nations that don't have similar standards of living.
....and as those nations become developed and increase their living standards, they can join the free trade ranks.

That would create a big incentive for those nations and their govs to get their acts together. Ie: we'd be asking them to rise towards the top rather than all of us being in a race to the bottom. We should be building a World where things get better, but how can we do that if we all end up having to undercut each others prices in a race to the bottom? That means whoever is willing to live in a dirt floor shack and work for a dollar a day will always be the winner.


The only way you could get me to support tariffs is if you eliminated the income tax and capital gains taxes completely and used tariffs instead. Even then, the tariffs should be minimal with the target being only to run the cost of legitimate government activity, not to punish or politically manipulate the international markets.
Even then it would still be the same thing you complain about in your first paragraph. That it amounts to an infringement of your Rights to not be able to buy a $10 hammer from China.

I've always looked at tariff's as the price foreigners had to pay in order to tap into the American market for their profit.



Tariffs won't suddenly change that, not this year and not in 10 years - the strategy doesn't arrive at MAGA, not easily and not at all. It takes trillions of dollars of investment to rebuild a manufacturing base, the tariffs revenue is not going into that and it wouldn't be enough even if it did.
Yet tariff's are what funded everything to do with gov for the first 140 years of the nation. If it worked then, why can't it work now?
....and are you for tariff's or against them? Or do you support some tariff's on some things, but not others?


If I buy something at the street market in Mumbai,....
....India's law's then apply to you.
 

EO 11110

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#68
two big lies that open border free traders push --

1. that margins cannot contract. ie, retail price will rise in lockstep with input cost of widget. patently false. widget seller price is determined BY DEMAND. if they can sell it for 100, 10000, 10,000 that's what they will charge....regardless of input cost

2. product is only a fraction of the cost. also in the cost is the shipping, the stock options, the bonuses, the taxes, the legal department, the marketing, more....much more. so a 20 percent rise in making the widget is easily reduced to small single digit percent rise in price when all of the other inputs are included
 
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gnome

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#69
tariff or continue to get bled out by the open border free trade globalists. those vipers have spent decades plying us with their venom.

the results speak for themselves.
We now have the worst trade deficit in history, thanks to Trump.
 

gnome

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#70
I don't know what the solution is, but I sure know Trump isn't winning.

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Scorpio

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#72
many here are well versed in the cause and effect relationship to tariffs,

and with that understanding are quite willing to accept the cost to achieve the result desired,

make no mistake, this is not about what is best for the avg slave, this is about corporatism and wall street,

using historical examples to try to cement a point is actually quite silly, as the prior systems vs todays are infinitely different

we have talked of the exportation of inflation, the importing of deflation, the exportation of environmental damage, and the importation of lessened liability along with other factors contributing to this.

we haven't even explored the out of sight out of mind mentality of the wage slaves, wherein Lake Erie used to be a corporate wasteland, now returning to normal. But, that environmental raping continues to this day, just not here.

for persons that truly believe the chins are doing this on their own, they are not paying attention.

those who cry free trade free trade in their defense of the no tariffs position are sadly lacking in any real education and intelligence. They prefer to puppet the propaganda rather than doing the work to arrive at fair conclusions.

JMO of course