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Modern Commemorative Coins / Eric Jordan

lightcycler

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Well said....sad truth is that with ZERO ATTRITION and modern packaging, the vast percentage of this "Modern Garbage" will end up in the melt bucket in a future metals run-up.....its all hype, the plastics industry is getting rich supplying material to the slabbers...ms 69, ms 70... "Registry"

NGC + PCGS laff as they cart your money to the bank.

WHO can honestly tell the difference when these mint spewed "collectables" are pumped out near flawless to begin with?

The mint throws you a bone once in awhile on a money making product (25th ann set, UHR) but overall, overtime, Most Modern Commems will be proven losers.
Some of my long term holds are boxes of modern silver commems bought at close to spot. As the price of PM's goes up more and more of them will find the melt bucket. I believe there will come a time when they are rare. My kids will thank me someday :)
 

MrLucky

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WhyKnow

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I will be ordering. I did watch the youtube video from the MCM email link that I was sent. Most of the video was informative and made me want to go out and purchase. The last portion was disappointing. It unveils a new NGC label that will denote any coin in the book as a 'top 50' coin. That way collectors can try to complete a set and compete on the NGC registry. This strikes me as a bit overly contrived and self serving. You get a few people in a room who decide to write a book, pick some coins out, and basically attempt to try to create a modern coin set by dint of some labels and a registry set and, presto, you have just created a genre. Of course, if you happen to be part of a large company that buys and sells these coins to begin with you could conveniently stock pile a bunch of them before the book comes out, so that when the demand that you have created thanks to some smooth marketing comes to fruition, you just happen to have a ready supply at hand.
Similar scam in the medical field and maybe others: one gets a letter in the mail saying they "have been voted one of America's Top Doctors." The voting was done by "an independent group of peers." No outside influence was allowed through membership dues or other; the doctor was picked by merit only. To celebrate, the chosen individual may purchase one of a variety of plaques from a "separate" company for the low price of $150 or more. While it's a scam, others are swayed by it and prices/fees reflect that bogus claim.
 

hernancortes

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I will be ordering. I did watch the youtube video from the MCM email link that I was sent. Most of the video was informative and made me want to go out and purchase. The last portion was disappointing. It unveils a new NGC label that will denote any coin in the book as a 'top 50' coin. That way collectors can try to complete a set and compete on the NGC registry. This strikes me as a bit overly contrived and self serving. You get a few people in a room who decide to write a book, pick some coins out, and basically attempt to try to create a modern coin set by dint of some labels and a registry set and, presto, you have just created a genre. Of course, if you happen to be part of a large company that buys and sells these coins to begin with you could conveniently stock pile a bunch of them before the book comes out, so that when the demand that you have created thanks to some smooth marketing comes to fruition, you just happen to have a ready supply at hand.
I hear you about the slabbing thing, they are forever dreaming of novel ways to hype plastic. Jordan recommends buying good-looking 69's or raw coins and I've always done the same.
The 2nd part of your post I would not be too concerned with as many of the coins in the top 50 list have been dispersed into collectors hands already and MCM cannot get enough of them in inventory to stockpile and promote. I can think of a few exceptions though.... UHR underwent a massive promotion in the last year and now cooling off.
 

hernancortes

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Well said....sad truth is that with ZERO ATTRITION and modern packaging, the vast percentage of this "Modern Garbage" will end up in the melt bucket in a future metals run-up.....its all hype, the plastics industry is getting rich supplying material to the slabbers...ms 69, ms 70... "Registry"

NGC + PCGS laff as they cart your money to the bank.

WHO can honestly tell the difference when these mint spewed "collectables" are pumped out near flawless to begin with?

The mint throws you a bone once in awhile on a money making product (25th ann set, UHR) but overall, overtime, Most Modern Commems will be proven losers.
Coins finding the melt bucket is by definition, attrition. Some series see massive attrition (silver $1 commems), others significant attrition (plat Eagles, early spouses, gold commems), and others virtually none (UHR, collector gold buffs). Collectors/speculators should be hoping for any event which thins the pop. that much more.
 

savvydon

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Similar scam in the medical field and maybe others: one gets a letter in the mail saying they "have been voted one of America's Top Doctors." The voting was done by "an independent group of peers." No outside influence was allowed through membership dues or other; the doctor was picked by merit only. To celebrate, the chosen individual may purchase one of a variety of plaques from a "separate" company for the low price of $150 or more. While it's a scam, others are swayed by it and prices/fees reflect that bogus claim.
That is pretty funny - I have been getting those letters for years and promptly depositing them in the round file. They basically want you to pay them so they can tell you how special you are - now there is one hell of an investment!
 

savvydon

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I hear you about the slabbing thing, they are forever dreaming of novel ways to hype plastic. Jordan recommends buying good-looking 69's or raw coins and I've always done the same.
The 2nd part of your post I would not be too concerned with as many of the coins in the top 50 list have been dispersed into collectors hands already and MCM cannot get enough of them in inventory to stockpile and promote. I can think of a few exceptions though.... UHR underwent a massive promotion in the last year and now cooling off.
I hear ya... its no big deal. In fact it seems to me that Marc Salzberg, John Maben, and Eric Jordan are all pretty good at what they do, and the basic thrust of this thing is something that naturally appeals to the collecting side of me. I guess the transparency of the marketing momentarily gave me the creeps... i got that feeling best described by Woody Allen when he says he would never want to join a club that would have him as one of its members. :p
 

MrLucky

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I'm not a gold guy, but that's interesting. Are these limited to being sold in 2012 only?
 

ChoiceBU

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Star spangled Banner $5 unc gold has sold 3836 after 16 wks. of availability.
In 2011, Army $5 unc. had sold 5896 and Medal of Honor $5 unc. 5430 at the same point.
I have one of each coin - IMO, the silver design is better but the gold unc (potential) is a bonus. Wonder how many 2012 AGE W Unc sold today at $1828 with gold at $1555? I would not be surprised if it turns out to be lower mintage than 2011 the way Mint sales are going this year.
 

HistoryStudent

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I have one of each coin - IMO, the silver design is better but the gold unc (potential) is a bonus. Wonder how many 2012 AGE W Unc sold today at $1828 with gold at $1555? I would not be surprised if it turns out to be lower mintage than 2011 the way Mint sales are going this year.
If gold EXPLODES with the QE to infinity for Mr. "O"s re-election I think you'll be right on!

We're talking about a few coins anyway.

However for you riverboat gamblers...


Do your research

BE right.

Take a huge position,

and sit damn tight.
 
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Solo

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Star spangled Banner $5 unc gold has sold 3836 after 16 wks. of availability.
In 2011, Army $5 unc. had sold 5896 and Medal of Honor $5 unc. 5430 at the same point.
It's been 6 weeks since the update above and the ssb unc has continued to decline in sales. This past week only 22 sold bringing the total to:

Uncirculated Gold 4,091 -- 22

I don't think the coin necessarily has a shot at the MS Jackie Robinson coin (though it's nice to dream about it), BUT it's really starting to look like it has a chance of being the number two or three modern gold commen. Just like the next spouse coins and 2012W age it all depends on how many they struck this year. There's just no way to know of course, but it seems like this coin should come in under the $1800ish 2001 Visitor center gold coin with a mintage of 6,761.

Unfortunately for me I can't buy a half dozen and sit on them, but for those of you who have plenty of money I would suggest that you keep a watch on this coin and be prepared to buy if we're still under 6,000 sold towards the end of the year. It really is the coin to watch at this point...
 

hernancortes

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Inexplicable but Capitol Visitor's center actually has a higher CDN bid/ask than Jackie Robinson for the last year or so, $2600/$2750 vs. $2400/$2550
 

tesskansas

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Re: Future rarity of modern commems...

Got the BOOK and think it is the absolutely BEST book on what to BUY across the WHOLE coin sector: from the VERY first ones - made in America.

Gives tremendous financial and LOGICAL background into BUYING right too.

sadly, ole HS knows....

Which book are you all referring to? Thanks.
 

HistoryStudent

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Modern Commemorative Coins - Eric Jordan's book.

The second one top 50 coins gives you skills to find the NEXT top 50 as the FUBAR Mint
opens their mouth to change feet.
 

Solo

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It's interesting to note that prices have softened on the Army and Moh uncs. I've seen raw coins sell for less than the current mint offering (the Star Spangled Banner) lately. PCGS 70s still command a premium, but I would have been pi$$ed if I were the seller of this eBay Army NGC ER MS70 that probably netted the seller $525 after fees and shipping. I still think they will be great long term plays for those who bought last year based on melt, but with the lack of interest in the SSB coin I don't see demand picking up for the Army or MoH coin anytime soon. If you missed them last year it may be worth your while to start watching for them on eBay and set low snipes in case the auction(s) end way too low.

I just read the law regarding the SSB coin and I could not find any limitation when it came to selling the coin past 12/31/12. The law clearly states they are to be issued during the calendar year, but when it comes to selling the only restriction I could find is that they couldn't continue selling the SSB coin if it would mean more than two commen's were available at the same time. Therefore theoretically they could sell the SSB into 2013. I hope I'm wrong about that though as sales this past week were awful (which is what we want!):

Uncirculated Gold 4,269 ---- 21

Even if the SSB averages 40 coins a week for the last 17 weeks of the year that still puts it in exciting territory if the mint stops selling them on 12/31. That's probably a dream too good to come true though so unless you see the coin on the "Going soon" list that they put up at the end of the year I wouldn't fill-up your credit card on 12/31. Stay tuned...

:bear_thumb:
 

jogslvr

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I totally agree with your assessment of the SSB and in my mind is currently the safest speculative bet in the Mint's inventory. I would like to buy one already slabbed MS70 but the few I've seen are rather expensive. However, expensive is a relative term. I thought I paid to much for my MS69 1999w $10 AGE but it has appreciated greatly since my purchase in 2010.

I believe its safe to pull the trigger on the raw SSB at this time. Just look at the prices of the 2nd, 3rd and 4th keys in the $5 commems! :thumbs_up:
 

hernancortes

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Bust out the latest greysheet and be amazed: These are BULLION coins folks. At least they used to be!

$25 MS gold eagles (bid/ask) based on $1660.70 spot gold

1988 - $1435/$1500
1989 - $1485/1550
1990 - $1725/$1800
1991 - $2450/$2575
1992 - $1035/$1075
1995 - $1150/$1215
1996 - $1260/$1340
2001 - $1050/$1090


also, the '86, '87, '93, '94, '98 '00, and '02 are bidding at least $100 over spot
 
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I got Jordon's Top 50 book at the FUN Show for free and just ordered this book from Amazon. Sorry I missed his lecture at the FUN show but we were too busy looking at tables full of coins!

Having collected modern commems myself, accumulating most before gold crossed the $400 mark, I already figured out that the secret to increasing premiums was ugly coins and coins which were the less popular among a group of offerings within the same year. Sadly, a few of my coins that used to have a decent premium now have no premium at all thanks to subsequent issues having lower mintages. Oh well. At least they've gone up just from their gold value but it's still disappointing.

My belated revelation is that I should have skipped accumulating a complete set of commems and concentrated on the better dates. I would have been better off getting multiples of the better coins, especially the MS coins, which were often already so much higher than the PF versions that I passed on them. The best examples of that are the Unc Library of Congress and some of the Olympic coins that I talked myself out of and just got the proofs. I did splurge on a MS $5 Capitol Visitor Center which has done very well, so I hope if newer issues end up with very low mintages I don't lose the current premium on that coin.
 

hernancortes

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The 2012-W unc. silver eagle just went backorder. Last sales reported were just under 200K, but they are still available as part of the annual uncirc. dollar set. When all is said and done did the mint really strike that many fewer than the prior year? I know I've been saying it for years now but this series, the w-unc, is in trouble as an annual offering. The mint does not have to offer these. Anyway this coin would be more appealing if it weren't $51.
 

HistoryStudent

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That'll make the 2012 W ASE mint state, I think, believe, and top of the head thingie...

Number 3 : these truly are the new CC Morgan type coins as we are in living history.

after NUMBER 1 ; the 2007/2008 mint mistake coin (47,000)

after NUMBER 2 ; the 2011 "S" 25th Annie coin (99,000 ish)


Even the ATBs are now way under 20,000 - wow. If they ever really catch on
- maybe if the mint pulls the rug on them soon?

Silver the RESTLESS Precious Metal end of the year prices:

2001 – $4.53

2002 – $4.67

2003 – $5.97

2004 – $6.57

2005 – $8.77

2006 – $12.59

2007 – $14.76

2008 – $10.57

2009 – $17.00

2010 – $30.52

2011 – $ 28.00

2012 – $ 30.00
 

Chester-Copperpot

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Anyone see any long term gains in buying up graded 70 2012 Silver Half Dollars. Not sure of the exact mintage, but they can be currently had for around $50.
 

HistoryStudent

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Sorry I jumped the gun on the whole idea. You may have a fun idea long term.

To me slabbed anything just might be the new basket you need in the future.

The metals of gold, silver, and platinum will do their thing.

Authentication to many will be easier to trade when they all go super high in price and everything is at melt.
 

hernancortes

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FINALLY the mint did it --- they have made their weekly numismatic sales report available to everyone, posted right on their site every Tuesday before 5:00 pm ET starting today. No more waiting for credentialed numismatic publications to get around to writing a report along with the data. Go to home page, then "About" tab at the top, then "Production & Sales Figures" at the right where you'll find they've reorganized everything including daily bullion totals and circ. coinage production.
 

SongSungAU

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FINALLY the mint did it --- they have made their weekly numismatic sales report available to everyone, posted right on their site every Tuesday before 5:00 pm ET starting today. No more waiting for credentialed numismatic publications to get around to writing a report along with the data. Go to home page, then "About" tab at the top, then "Production & Sales Figures" at the right where you'll find they've reorganized everything including daily bullion totals and circ. coinage production.
Thanks!

It is nice to have the data available. One option that would make it even nicer is if you could download it as a file (CSV, text, Excel, etc.). As it is, you have to click through each screen. I'd rather download it all then sort it to my pleasure.

Gee, I guess I should just be happy the data is there. LOL!
(some people are never satisfied) :cool:
 

savvydon

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It is nice to have the data available. One option that would make it even nicer is if you could download it as a file (CSV, text, Excel, etc.). As it is, you have to click through each screen. I'd rather download it all then sort it to my pleasure.
Agreed. It was a bit of a task getting through the Mint's presentation of the fires. I wound up going back to my usual site.
 

MrLucky

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^^ Also agreed. Too many clicks to get anywhere. Nice idea though. I went back to the old place also.

And putting it under the "About" tab seems strange. Who'd look for it there?
 
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Similar scam in the medical field and maybe others: one gets a letter in the mail saying they "have been voted one of America's Top Doctors." The voting was done by "an independent group of peers." No outside influence was allowed through membership dues or other; the doctor was picked by merit only. To celebrate, the chosen individual may purchase one of a variety of plaques from a "separate" company for the low price of $150 or more. While it's a scam, others are swayed by it and prices/fees reflect that bogus claim.
I get lawyer crap like every day......
 

hernancortes

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Harry Miller has a new piece in Numisamtic News on the rising premiums of back-dated ASE's. So I pulled out latest greysheet to verify:

Bid Price, spot basis $19.67, mint state ASE's, gem+ condition:

'86 - $35
'89 - $27
'90 - $29
'93 - $28
'94 - $36
'95 - $33
'96 - $55
 

HistoryStudent

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Harry Miller has a new piece in Numisamtic News on the rising premiums of back-dated ASE's. So I pulled out latest greysheet to verify:

Bid Price, spot basis $19.67, mint state ASE's, gem+ condition:

'86 - $35
'89 - $27
'90 - $29
'93 - $28
'94 - $36
'95 - $33
'96 - $55
Good INFORMATION. I remember back when silver was high'er priced that MONSTER boxes of the above had TREMENDOUS extra premiums attached. Even a few of the early 2000s had BIG BUCKS (read extra $5,000) attached to them from AP*MEX.
 
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hernancortes

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Though gold has been murdered over the last year, the key date modern gold eagle is keeping very strong. Last greysheet bid I saw on the '91 $25 in gem mint state was $2625. Meanwhile ebay shows completed recent sales of a pcgs ms69 for $3300, an ngc ms70 for $4000, a pcgs 67 for $2600, & an ngc ms69 for $2850. In four years of following this coin I've watched it do nothing but grind higher in price from $1650 at the start of 2010 to $2050 in 2011 to $2300 in 2012 to $2450 last year to easily $2600+ today. I cannot think of any other modern US coin that's done that. Sustained high demand and very few to hit the market.
 

hernancortes

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Good INFORMATION. I remember back when silver was high'er priced that MONSTER boxes of the above had TREMENDOUS extra premiums attached. Even a few of the early 2000s had BIG BUCKS (read extra $5,000) attached to them from AP*MEX.
By 2014 I've come to believe the '86 bullion ASE to be one of the most difficult to locate of all the MS issues and their premium is justified next to coins like the '96, '94 and '97, despite the '86's somewhat higher mintage.
 

savvydon

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By 2014 I've come to believe the '86 bullion ASE to be one of the most difficult to locate of all the MS issues and their premium is justified next to coins like the '96, '94 and '97, despite the '86's somewhat higher mintage.
I agree and I think you are taking the long view. When the design gets changed that may further catapult the value of the issue. In the meantime they can still be had in bulk for a small premium.
 

hernancortes

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At my local show today I looked at a dealer's greysheet for the latest in $25 'bullion' gold eagle pricing, so the following is going by memory:
$25 MS gold eagles bid prices

1988 - $1700
1989 - $1800
1990 - $2100
1991 - $3100(!!)
1992 - $1250?
1995- $1300?
1996 - $1500
2001 - $1200
 

hernancortes

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So yeah I would advise anyone who has a 1/2 oz. bullion gold eagle to check the date on it.
In other news the '95-W silver eagle is making a run at its record high which was just shy of $5000 in early '07. Greysheet bid is now $3800... incredibly an ICG PR70 sold on ebay for $14,600 recently.