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New Trucks are Hot, Prices Surge. But Cars Face Carmageddon

Scorpio

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#1
New Trucks are Hot, Prices Surge. But Cars Face Carmageddon. And Total Sales Fall
by Wolf Richter • Feb 5, 2019 • 89 Comments

Americans love paying big profit margins for big equipment, and automakers love them for it, but total sales are declining, and something doesn’t add up.
The average transaction price of the vehicles sold by Fiat Chrysler jumped 5% in January compared to a year ago; for vehicles sold by Ford Motor Company, they rose 3.4%; for GM 2.4%; for Subaru 5.4%; for Toyota 3.0%.
For the industry as a whole, the average transaction price in January, according to estimates by Kelley Blue Book, jumped by $1,481, or by 4.2% from a year earlier, to $37,149. These are based on prices paid by retail customers before factory incentives are applied. The average transaction price for full-size pickup trucks jumped by 5.3%, or by $2,500 from a year ago, to nearly $50,000. But Americans spurned the $16,000 small cars.
This has been the theme year after year: higher, and sometimes much higher dollar amounts for new vehicles, particularly trucks, even as the overall number of new vehicles sold has declined.
New vehicle sales in the US peaked in 2016. For the three US brands, for Toyota, and some other automakers, they’d peaked in 2015. In 2018, new-vehicle sales, at 17.3 million vehicles, where below where they’d been in 2015 and below where they’d been in 2000.

While this has caused a bunch of gray hairs because over the longer term, this is not the way to go, automakers have focused on what Wall Street wants to hear – particularly Ford, whose sales dropped back into the 2013 range: We’re selling fewer vehicles but we’re charging more money for each of them, and so we’re not worried.
There are two factors at play in these rising average transaction prices.
Americans shift to “trucks” & love paying extra
This shift by US consumers away from lower priced and lower margin cars to higher priced and higher margin “trucks,” meaning compact SUVs (crossovers, which are based on cars), pickups, and SUVs, is not new. This trend has been going on for years. But it has reached a critical mass to where automakers are now shutting down car production plants in the US, to focus on making what sells.
And American consumers, often assumed to be astute and price sensitive, are favoring and buying the vehicles with the fattest profit margins: full-size pickups, which include the top three US bestsellers in 2018 with combined sales of over 2 million:
  • #1 bestseller: Ford F-series, 909,300 trucks sold
  • #2 bestseller: Chevy Silverado, 585,600 trucks sold
  • #3 bestseller: Dodge Ram, 537,000 trucks sold.
The next three bestsellers are compact SUVs (“crossovers”):
  • #4 bestseller: Toyota Rav4 (427,200);
  • #5 bestseller: Nissan Rogue/Rogue Sport (412,100);
  • #6 bestseller: Honda CR-V (397,000).
You have to go down to seventh place to get a car, the Toyota Camry (343,400), followed by the Honda Civic (325,800); and by the Toyota Corolla (303,732). Note that Ford sold three times as many F-series pickups as Toyota sold Corollas.
The chart below shows how the dynamics between cars and “trucks” (crossovers, pickups, SUVs, and vans) have developed over the years – and Americans are just willing to pay a whole lot more for “trucks” than for cars, and hence higher average transaction prices.

Price increases in the hottest segments
Manufacturers raise prices on trucks because they can. The average transaction price has risen because automakers have raised prices within the hottest segments that already have the fattest profit margins, particularly full-size pickup trucks.
The average transaction price for full-size pickup trucks jumped 5.3% in January from a year earlier, to $49,562, according to Kelley Blue Book. This is over three times the average transaction price of a subcompact car ($16,273). And it matters, given the large number of trucks sold.
Even the average transaction price of compact crossovers — which are based on compact cars in terms of the chassis, powertrain, and many other components and don’t cost a lot more to manufacture than their equivalent cars – rose to $29,039.
High performance cars, such as Porsches, experienced 5.5% increase in the average transaction price ($113,800), but sales are tiny, compared to the overall market, and they really don’t matter that much.
Below is the list by segment of average transaction prices in January, and their changes from a year earlier. There are also four price decreases on that list, including two luxury car segments: high-end luxury car (-3.8%) and luxury car (-0.9%) (data via Kelley Blue Book):
Segment Jan. 2019: Avg. Transaction Price % change YOY Subcompact Car $16,273 0.3% Compact Car $20,504 1.0% Subcompact SUV/Crossover $23,969 -1.3% Mid-size Car $25,951 0.3% Hybrid/Alternative Energy Car $27,653 2.7% Compact SUV/Crossover $29,039 2.1% Van $32,939 0.0% Mid-size Pickup Truck $33,287 0.6% Sports Car $34,996 -1.7% Full-size Car $35,327 2.4% Minivan $35,549 3.4% Mid-size SUV/Crossover $38,926 1.1% Entry-level Luxury Car $42,419 0.5% Luxury Compact SUV/Crossover $44,979 0.0% Full-size Pickup Truck $49,562 5.3% Luxury Mid-size SUV/Crossover $56,892 0.2% Luxury Car $58,470 -0.9% Electric Vehicle $62,402 2.5% Full-size SUV/Crossover $63,466 3.0% Luxury Full-size SUV/Crossover $87,933 4.8% High-end Luxury Car $96,423 -3.8% High Performance Car $113,801 5.5%
For automakers, the conundrum is this: Compact and subcompact cars have paper-thin profit margins, and so they’re not pushing them very hard. The money is in trucks. And that’s where much of the marketing dollars go. But compact and subcompact cars are out there, and if Americans really wanted to buy small economical cars and save a ton of money on purchasing costs, interest, and fuel, they could. But not many do.
This conundrum can be further complicated by fuel prices, which can wreak havoc on production planning by automakers. In the past, surging gasoline prices have caused consumer preferences to shift to more economical vehicles. But when gasoline prices fell again, those preferences shifted back to trucks with a vengeance.
At the same time, even as the average transaction price has surged year after year, total new-vehicle sales have declined in what is a brutally mature market, with new-vehicle sales in 2018 just below where they’d been in 2000. This makes for 18 years of stagnation with a huge trough in the middle during the Financial Crisis. But price increases and the shift to more expensive higher-profit margin vehicles has kept the dollars rolling for automakers.
Somewhere there is a cause-and-effect relationship between declining unit sales and higher prices, but it is not clear where this relationship is because Americans most eagerly buy the highest-profit margin vehicles (pickups) while at the same time spurning subcompacts that sell for a third of the price.
Global auto sales: And This Isn’t Even a Global Recession Yet. ReadTHE WOLF STREET REPORT

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https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/05/n...t-cars-face-carmageddon-and-total-sales-fall/
 

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#3
It is hard to beat the practicality and comfort of an f150. Especially since they get car-like fuel economy nowadays.
 

Rollie Free

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#4
I know this.
Diamonds have a retail value that holds no correlation to their actual value. Once the new diamond is in your hands (or on your wifes) the retail value vanishes into thin air and you're left with a piece of rock no one wants to buy from you. Buying a diamond for a women is the deal, not that she has it. You've said I will work for several months to attain nothing but a symbol of our love. The jewelry industry is a scam but they do it well.

When my mom died our lawyer told us that when we dispense of her stuff to expect to get little to nothing for her furniture. She had this huge Thomasville bedroom set. Exceptional quality and in mint condition. It will last several lifetimes. I am sure it costs in the thousands of dollars. We can't give it away. The after market for furniture like this barely exists. Think about it. If someone has the money for this they'll buy new, buying used seems 'seedy'. Your better off trying to sell a cheap couch. There is a market for that albeit it isn't going to be a cash cow.

Isnt buying a high priced truck falliing nto the same category? There is this mystical retail 'value' that you buy into that goes away once you buy it. Not unsubstantial.
It's why I never bought new. Let someone else take that huge hit. But then again I am not one to buy something and go around puffing up my chest about it. I like to lay low about most things. I work with a person who bought a 60,000 dollar pickup out of lust and a year later realized the burden she has. There us no good way out. Sell it and she has nothing but a huge liability. Keep it and she has to keep paying for the foreseeable future more than its worth.
Everyone has their choices in life. I guess if you've got money to burn then spend away. I don't do debt well.
 

GOLDBRIX

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#5
Another up side to the Truck Boom - current truck owners will see slower depreciation in their current vehicle.

The $16,000.00 "go-carts" ? When I have an accident in my truck my chances of being on top of the accident is far better than the that driver of the go-cart.
I'd rather step out of a wreck than cut out. But that's just me. YMMV
 

Mr Paradise

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#6
My 2001 is still going strong. I love to brag about not having had a vehicle payment since 2004. I’m not paying $40,000 for 4 tires and a steering wheel so some underworked overcompensated UAW slug can retire at 53 with a $8,000 month pension.

Spot on about furniture. Give me $500 during garage/moving sale season and I’ll furnish a house better than someone can with 10k at Art Van.
 

BigJim#1-8

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Friends came to visit & the truck they arrived in was a Silverado 2500 HD, Duramax, Allison, leather,etc. This was his company provided vehicle. List price.....$72,000.00....My 2001 Duramax similar listed for $41,800.00 & my 2009 1500 Silverado,(I call them soccer mom trucks) listed for $42,000.00, no leather.
The dealers no longer quote prices, just ask how much per month can one afford. All they're selling is debt.
 

Joseph

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#8
The dealers no longer quote prices, just ask how much per month can one afford. All they're selling is debt.
A car dealer I know said exactly the same thing. Price is no longer a topic of conversation. Nor is the interest rate, or how many years to finance (7 yrs?) . If they can make $600+/mo payment, they buy.
 

BigJim#1-8

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I'm looking for an older pickup that's in good shape. The only thing I need a pickup for is hauling large items from Home Depot, etc. My 2009 Silverado, Crew, 4x4, has 65000 miles on it, figure I could get a pretty good price for it.
 

chomper

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#10
I wish we had a full size pickup in Australia like the F150. There are outfits that do conversions to RHD, but they are abominations and make your premium priced pickups look well, cheap.
 

Aurumag

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#11
Friends came to visit & the truck they arrived in was a Silverado 2500 HD, Duramax, Allison, leather,etc. This was his company provided vehicle. List price.....$72,000.00....My 2001 Duramax similar listed for $41,800.00 & my 2009 1500 Silverado,(I call them soccer mom trucks) listed for $42,000.00, no leather.
The dealers no longer quote prices, just ask how much per month can one afford. All they're selling is debt.
Re-hypothecated debt.

For the same reason that I once again receive 0% interest cc offers.

I recently paid my cc in full, and two days later I got a letter from my bank congratulating me that my credit limit had been increased by 25%.

Bottom line:

When your "currency" is debt based, debt = money.


As for the trucks:

I was going to sell my 1992 Chevy Scottsdale with the 5 speed manual V-6 and new tires for $1500 FRNs.
I cancelled the insurance and registered it PNO (Planned Non-Op).
Within 4 hours of listing, I got hammered by dozens of interested Craig's List buyers.
At that point I realized that my truck is worth more if I simply keep it parked in the driveway; for emergencies only.
Not selling.
I love my POS truck!
 
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ttazzman

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#12
my 01 chev gas truck went 350k miles no major issues....didnt quite have enough oooph to pull/stop some of my big trailers with out struggling....so found me a 06 diesel chev 3500 srw (last year before major emmisions crap) 8k # truck gets 20mph empty down highway.....would cost me north of 60k to replace it new (aint gona happen)
 

Scorpio

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#13
yep,

was looking at new fords last fall, and it was comical as heck,

they are putting 2.7L eco's in all the new ford 150's

mine has a 3.5 eco and it is ok, but it is a real heavy truck and it does fine putzing around at 50-60 mph,
but you put it on the highway at higher speeds all the time like I do, and the gas mileage is poor because you are working it so hard.

has 150k on it now and wondering just how long it lasts? It has avg'd 15.7 mpg for that period, which is way under posted. Mostly highway miles.

in other words, I wouldn't buy one of those fords with the 2.7 in it, as it is just too darn small for the size of the load you are moving, without weight or trailers.
 

Usury

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#14
I know this.
Diamonds have a retail value that holds no correlation to their actual value. Once the new diamond is in your hands (or on your wifes) the retail value vanishes into thin air and you're left with a piece of rock no one wants to buy from you. Buying a diamond for a women is the deal, not that she has it. You've said I will work for several months to attain nothing but a symbol of our love. The jewelry industry is a scam but they do it well.

When my mom died our lawyer told us that when we dispense of her stuff to expect to get little to nothing for her furniture. She had this huge Thomasville bedroom set. Exceptional quality and in mint condition. It will last several lifetimes. I am sure it costs in the thousands of dollars. We can't give it away. The after market for furniture like this barely exists. Think about it. If someone has the money for this they'll buy new, buying used seems 'seedy'. Your better off trying to sell a cheap couch. There is a market for that albeit it isn't going to be a cash cow.

Isnt buying a high priced truck falliing nto the same category? There is this mystical retail 'value' that you buy into that goes away once you buy it. Not unsubstantial.
It's why I never bought new. Let someone else take that huge hit. But then again I am not one to buy something and go around puffing up my chest about it. I like to lay low about most things. I work with a person who bought a 60,000 dollar pickup out of lust and a year later realized the burden she has. There us no good way out. Sell it and she has nothing but a huge liability. Keep it and she has to keep paying for the foreseeable future more than its worth.
Everyone has their choices in life. I guess if you've got money to burn then spend away. I don't do debt well.
Actually it’s tough to find a slightly used pickup at much off a discount. Cars and SUVs....HUGE depreciation. Trucks, not so much. In many cases you’d be better off buying new and driving it 10-15 yrs.
 

Usury

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#15
yep,

was looking at new fords last fall, and it was comical as heck,

they are putting 2.7L eco's in all the new ford 150's

mine has a 3.5 eco and it is ok, but it is a real heavy truck and it does fine putzing around at 50-60 mph,
but you put it on the highway at higher speeds all the time like I do, and the gas mileage is poor because you are working it so hard.

has 150k on it now and wondering just how long it lasts? It has avg'd 15.7 mpg for that period, which is way under posted. Mostly highway miles.

in other words, I wouldn't buy one of those fords with the 2.7 in it, as it is just too darn small for the size of the load you are moving, without weight or trailers.
No way I’d own a truck without a v8 gasser in it. All those Ford green-toy trucks will be Found On Road Dead when that crap breaks. and good luck getting any speed/torque when you need it consistently.
 

<SLV>

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#16
Turbo lifespan is about 100k miles. The ecoboost has two. Standard V8 for me.
 

GOLDBRIX

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#18
yep,

was looking at new fords last fall, and it was comical as heck,

they are putting 2.7L eco's in all the new ford 150's

mine has a 3.5 eco and it is ok, but it is a real heavy truck and it does fine putzing around at 50-60 mph,
but you put it on the highway at higher speeds all the time like I do, and the gas mileage is poor because you are working it so hard.

has 150k on it now and wondering just how long it lasts? It has avg'd 15.7 mpg for that period, which is way under posted. Mostly highway miles.

in other words, I wouldn't buy one of those fords with the 2.7 in it, as it is just too darn small for the size of the load you are moving, without weight or trailers.
Scorp. Have you considered installing a diesel tuner like a Bully Dog ?
"...it does fine putzing around at 50-60 mph" For diesel engines that is the sweet spot - Double Nickles.
 

GOLDBRIX

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#19
Actually it’s tough to find a slightly used pickup at much off a discount. Cars and SUVs....HUGE depreciation. Trucks, not so much. In many cases you’d be better off buying new and driving it 10-15 yrs.
I have to disagree with that last sentence. I buy used trucks and get 10-15 years, working an '08 Ram currently, and no big financial bite rolling off the lot. YMMV
 

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#20
Wait, V8 isn't even an option now?
Fazing em out for turbo'd 6's it seems. Personally my newest vehicle is an 01 and I'll never buy anything newer.

Scotty, the car mechanic Irons made a thread about has spent $7500 on his vehicles total spanning a 45 year time period. Older is better if you can get parts and don't mind wrenching on a few things. Nowadays there's way too many Chinese computer controlled parts. It's completely absurd. Then they are built in sequential order so if anything goes bad you gotta take the whole fargin thing apart.
 

engineear

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#21
Another up side to the Truck Boom - current truck owners will see slower depreciation in their current vehicle.

The $16,000.00 "go-carts" ? When I have an accident in my truck my chances of being on top of the accident is far better than the that driver of the go-cart.
I'd rather step out of a wreck than cut out. But that's just me. YMMV
I don't care what you're in when your number is up.
 

GOLDBRIX

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#22
I don't care what you're in when your number is up.
But WHEN my number is up it aint gonna be in NO DAMN Go-Cart !!
I see far more crushed Chic cars and Go-carts on TV when they report an auto accidents.

As far as I'm concerned when I die Drain my fluids along with the truck's, kick the seat back, back rest down, and roll that sum bitch into the 6 foot hole. Probably have to dig down to about 10 or 11 feet then throw on the dirt. Save the cost on a casket. DAMN. we've lost our grave digging smilie.
 
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newmisty

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#23
But WHEN my number is up it aint gonna be in NO DAMN Go-Cart !!
I see far more crushed Chic cars and Go-carts on TV when they report an auto accidents.
Vehicles with the highest rates of death
By PHIL NOBILEphil.nobile@newsday.comUpdated March 9, 2016 9:46 AM
PRINT SHARE
Although the chances of dying in a car crash has plunged in recent years, some vehicles from automakers such as Kia, Nissan and Chevrolet have significantly higher rates of death than others. In general, the smallest and lightest vehicles resulted in the highest rates of death, with most of them being entry-level models without advanced safety features.

Here is the full list of the deadliest vehicles from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, measured between the 2008-2011 model years.
19. Honda Civic
Photo Credit: AP
Here is the full list of the deadliest vehicles from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, measured between the 2008-2011 model years.
Honda Civic (4-door)
Overall driver deaths (per million): 49
Multiple-vehicle crashes: 28
Single-vehicle crashes: 21
Single-vehicle rollovers: 8
18. Dodge Nitro
Photo Credit: AP
Dodge Nitro 2WD
Overall driver deaths (per million): 51
Multiple-vehicle crashes: 7
Single-vehicle crashes: 50
Single-vehicle rollovers: 40
17. Mazda 6
Photo Credit: AP
Mazda 6
Overall driver deaths (per million): 54
Multiple-vehicle crashes: 34
Single-vehicle crashes: 17
Single-vehicle rollovers: 3
16. Jeep Patriot
Photo Credit: AP
Jeep Patriot 2WD
Overall driver deaths (per million): 57
Multiple-vehicle crashes: 44
Single-vehicle crashes: 9
Single-vehicle rollovers: 3

ADVERTISING

15. Mercury Grand Marquis
Photo Credit: AP
Mercury Grand Marquis
Overall driver deaths (per million): 57
Multiple-vehicle crashes: 33
Single-vehicle crashes: 25
Single-vehicle rollovers: 0
14. Chevrolet Aveo
Photo Credit: AP
Chevrolet Aveo station wagon
Overall driver deaths (per million): 58
Multiple-vehicle crashes: 58
Single-vehicle crashes: 0
Single-vehicle rollovers: 0
13. Chevrolet Suburban
Photo Credit: AP
Chevrolet Suburban 1500 2WD
Overall driver deaths (per million): 60
Multiple-vehicle crashes: 31
Single-vehicle crashes: 28
Single-vehicle rollovers: 9
12. Chevrolet HHR
Photo Credit: AP
Chevrolet HHR
Overall driver deaths (per million): 61
Multiple-vehicle crashes: 34
Single-vehicle crashes: 25
Single-vehicle rollovers: 9
11. Nissan Cube
Photo Credit: AP
Nissan Cube
Overall driver deaths (per million): 66
Multiple-vehicle crashes: 38
Single-vehicle crashes: 29
Single-vehicle rollovers: 6
10. Ford Focus
Photo Credit: AP
Ford Focus
Overall driver deaths (per million): 70
Multiple-vehicle crashes: 55
Single-vehicle crashes: 13
Single-vehicle rollovers: 5
9. Nissan Versa
Photo Credit: AP
Nissan Versa hatchback
Overall driver deaths (per million): 71
Multiple-vehicle crashes: 37
Single-vehicle crashes: 33
Single-vehicle rollovers: 20
8. Honda Civic
Photo Credit: AP
Honda Civic (2-door)
Overall driver deaths (per million): 76
Multiple-vehicle crashes: 46
Single-vehicle crashes: 29
Single-vehicle rollovers: 10
7. Chevrolet Silverado
Photo Credit: AP
Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Crew 4WD
Overall driver deaths (per million): 79
Multiple-vehicle crashes: 40
Single-vehicle crashes: 36
Single-vehicle rollovers: 17
6. Chevrolet Camaro
Photo Credit: AP
Chevrolet Camaro
Overall driver deaths (per million): 80
Multiple-vehicle crashes: 19
Single-vehicle crashes: 60
Single-vehicle rollovers: 25
5. Hyundai Accent
Photo Credit: AP
Hyundai Accent (2-door)
Overall driver deaths (per million): 86
Multiple-vehicle crashes: 43
Single-vehicle crashes: 48
Single-vehicle rollovers: 20
4. Chevrolet Aveo
Photo Credit: AP
Chevrolet Aveo
Overall driver deaths (per million): 99
Multiple-vehicle crashes: 65
Single-vehicle crashes: 31
Single-vehicle rollovers: 10
3. Hyundai Accent
Photo Credit: AP
Hyundai Accent (4-door)
Overall driver deaths (per million): 120
Multiple-vehicle crashes: 65
Single-vehicle crashes: 53
Single-vehicle rollovers: 16
2. Nissan Versa
Photo Credit: AP
Nissan Versa sedan
Overall driver deaths (per million): 130
Multiple-vehicle crashes: 44
Single-vehicle crashes: 87
Single-vehicle rollovers: 51
1. Kia Rio
Photo Credit: AP
Kia Rio
Overall driver deaths (per million): 149
Multiple-vehicle crashes: 96
Single-vehicle crashes: 54
Single-vehicle rollovers: 15
By PHIL NOBILEphil.nobile@newsday.com



https://www.newsday.com/classifieds...ludes-kia-nissan-and-chevrolet-cars-1.9890304
 

tigerwillow1

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#24
Overall driver deaths (per million): 49
Per million drivers??? Seems like a meaningless measure to me, ignoring how many miles are driven in each car model and a whole host of other factors that could affect the death rate that have nothing to do with the car model. I agree that in an accident the bigger/heavier vehicle usually wins. This is just a pretty naive way to make the measurement.
 

newmisty

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#25
Per million drivers??? Seems like a meaningless measure to me, ignoring how many miles are driven in each car model and a whole host of other factors that could affect the death rate that have nothing to do with the car model. I agree that in an accident the bigger/heavier vehicle usually wins. This is just a pretty naive way to make the measurement.
Easy Tiger, it's just one measurement that has real world value. You're welcome and encouraged to dig up the myriad of other stats and share with the group too.
 

Buck

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#26
yep,

was looking at new fords last fall, and it was comical as heck,

they are putting 2.7L eco's in all the new ford 150's

mine has a 3.5 eco and it is ok, but it is a real heavy truck and it does fine putzing around at 50-60 mph,
but you put it on the highway at higher speeds all the time like I do, and the gas mileage is poor because you are working it so hard.

has 150k on it now and wondering just how long it lasts? It has avg'd 15.7 mpg for that period, which is way under posted. Mostly highway miles.

in other words, I wouldn't buy one of those fords with the 2.7 in it, as it is just too darn small for the size of the load you are moving, without weight or trailers.
and with the electronic package these dogs contain, any glitch is going to cost a small fortune unless you own a real OBD II reader, programmer, etc, package

and I'm not talking about any hand held scanner, a $25 cheapo will read codes but a real tool will aid in the diagnosis of drive-ability, traction control, body sway, ABS control, or any of dozens of possible computers your new vehicle may have on it

New Stuff:
Think Blenders, toss 'em when they break

Old Stuff:
Think Obsolete,
they're working hard to make it so you buy a Blender

And on the new trucks, the power curve has been moved back and upon hard throttle response, there is a lag, a noticeable lag where you can quickly 'goose' the pedal and quickly return to where your foot was and it's possible to get the engine to not respond at all, it will continue at it's RPM as if nothing happened, brand new truck, great new throttle pedal, had trouble burning the tires until the brake pedal was applied and the drive-train load was wound up, patience LOL

Blender, Expensive Blender with a 7 year payback cycle
 

hoarder

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#27
and with the electronic package these dogs contain, any glitch is going to cost a small fortune unless you own a real OBD II reader, programmer, etc, package
Even with OBD reader etc, you're still at the mercy of the dealer and manufacturer. The wiring harnesses they make nowadays are made of the thinnest wires and poorest connectors that it's nearly impossible to pinpoint the many electrical and electronic problems these new vehicles have.
My 1998 Jeep has 145K miles and my 2006 Tundra has 186K miles. I would buy a new 2006 Tundra today if I could but have zero desire to nibble on the new offerings. All new vehicles have loads of electronic junk on them I don't want and stupid low profile tires. Let them cut their own throats. I'll drive my older vehicles another ten years.
 

GOLDBRIX

God,Donald Trump,most in GIM2 I Trust. OTHERS-meh
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#28
Per million drivers??? Seems like a meaningless measure to me, ignoring how many miles are driven in each car model and a whole host of other factors that could affect the death rate that have nothing to do with the car model. I agree that in an accident the bigger/heavier vehicle usually wins. This is just a pretty naive way to make the measurement.
That number is more like 1394 per million vehicles on the road. No telling How Many millions of these specific models are on the road.(I took out the Suburban numbers as I do consider it a big truck type vehicle).

1394 per million drivers of the TOP 14 is a little more credible than the 49 of just one model.

Yep, Be on top not the bottom. IMO
 

tigerwillow1

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#29
Easy Tiger, it's just one measurement that has real world value. You're welcome and encouraged to dig up the myriad of other stats and share with the group too.
I didn't make my point that I don't think using the raw vehicle population is a very good measurement tool. For instance, the Honda Civic is high on the "bad" list. The Civic is popular with young and inexperienced drivers, which would be a likely reason for it having a higher death rate, that has nothing whatsoever to do with the vehicle. Why is the 2 door Civic rated a lot more dangerous than the 4 door Civic? Are the cars themselves that different, safety-wise, or do they attract different kinds of drivers? And how the heck does the Silverado have a higher death rate than the Civic? Are they maybe used for jobsite work that's more hazardous than where Civics are used?

What the Newsday article doesn't mention is that a lot of the IIHS information it uses is omitted. For instance, IIHS does not rank cars and pickups together. It also has a "confidence limit" for each vehicle which can vary wildly. For instance, the posted death rate for one F150 model is 30, with a confidence limit of 0 to 59. Plus, IIHS admits "The death rates are adjusted for driver age and gender", so the data is manipulated in some unknown way.
 

newmisty

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#30
I didn't make my point that I don't think using the raw vehicle population is a very good measurement tool. For instance, the Honda Civic is high on the "bad" list. The Civic is popular with young and inexperienced drivers, which would be a likely reason for it having a higher death rate, that has nothing whatsoever to do with the vehicle. Why is the 2 door Civic rated a lot more dangerous than the 4 door Civic? Are the cars themselves that different, safety-wise, or do they attract different kinds of drivers? And how the heck does the Silverado have a higher death rate than the Civic? Are they maybe used for jobsite work that's more hazardous than where Civics are used?

What the Newsday article doesn't mention is that a lot of the IIHS information it uses is omitted. For instance, IIHS does not rank cars and pickups together. It also has a "confidence limit" for each vehicle which can vary wildly. For instance, the posted death rate for one F150 model is 30, with a confidence limit of 0 to 59. Plus, IIHS admits "The death rates are adjusted for driver age and gender", so the data is manipulated in some unknown way.
I wasn't intending to post a completely comprehensive statistical analysis, just to offer a glimpse. Again, feel free to compile a more comprehensive data stream to deepen our understanding. There's a lot more out there. I just grabbed the most convenient thing available at the time.
 

Usury

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#31
@newmist I was a little surprised to see Gran-ma’s on that list—they are safe cats IMO. But of course considering old folks are driving them with reduced vision and reaction time I guess it makes sense. More an indictment of the driver than the vehicle IMO
 

newmisty

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@newmist I was a little surprised to see Gran-ma’s on that list—they are safe cats IMO. But of course considering old folks are driving them with reduced vision and reaction time I guess it makes sense. More an indictment of the driver than the vehicle IMO
Good point. There's lots of metadata needed to carve a solid hypothesis but I think the original fact remains, physics is your friend.
 

ABC123

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#33
Ive been thinking about this for a while. New cars and trucks are a moneypit, although as the article suggests trucks will hold their value much better.

I bought a used 14 Tundra for less than it was appraised for and financed it for 6 years. Didnt have the cash at the time but if'n I did I would buy a rebuilt Chevy, years 70-mid 80's are still wrenchable. Ive seen em go for tops 15k, many much less in very good to mint condition. They will always be worth the money put in and perhaps become a real collectors item.

What do you guys think?
 

TAEZZAR

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#36
Screw new f>>>>g trucks/cars. I bought a new Ford Edge & it is a POS. It applies the parking brake, going down the road at 65 mph, It is far more distracting to navigate the screwed up electronics, than driving while using a cell phone. I was told it has 7 "brains" & I think they are all mentally deficient !
My 2007 Dodge Ram 2500, 6.7L Cummins diesel, bought new, has 93,000, gets 20 mpg at 75 mph ( I took off all the emissions shit) & blows doors on most cars.
I just got back from LA, 858 miles in 12 hours flat & got an average of 19.7 mpg.
I think I am done with new cars.
I'm wondering if I'm too old to build something like a '51 Chevy Club Coupe, with a hot 350 & modern suspension.
There would be no emissions shit, no computer & it would be fun to drive.
MY '51 CHEVY & FREE FLIGHT   - Copy.jpg
 

phoneman

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#39
Love my 2016 Toyota Tundra. Rides great on highway or dirt roads. And my 2002 Tacoma has given me great service and still works great.
 
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pitw

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#40
Well I suppose I've bought 25 trucks in the last 25 years[probably more] and I would have paid less than one new would cost me today. I've also sold some of these trucks and got what I paid or more for them. I owned one new truck in '93 and sold it cause I won it and even then I wanted older[plus cash] cause it made more cents. I ended up buying an 85 that I drove for 18 years and I know the '93 died way before it.