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Ongoing Archive of PM Premiums Started

solarion

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This idea, begun as a thread by foolsgold is way overdue, particularly as physical prices continue to diverge from futures contract derived "spot" prices. Along that vein, I've created a publicly available spreedsheet to begin to archive the data necessary to track and chart these premiums. The original thread where this was discussed is located here:

https://www.goldismoney2.com/thread...s-silvers-physical-price.437692/#post-2111219

A rudimentary spreadsheet intended as a starting point for this project is located here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rOE3xML-Uq2196Bli3s1Am6QskBJgxsxKQeIWuzbfEM/edit?usp=sharing

Please feel free to use the data as you see fit. Feel free also to suggest edits/alterations.

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solarion

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So far it's just an experiment, till I figure out exactly how I'd like data lain out. I'll likely work on writing JSON script minions to go retrieve the data automatically and update, but that's down the road. For now, I've manually entered the month of February month-to-date only.

Edit: No good reason not to add GSR and GPR(gold to platinum) ratios as there's no more data entry necessary to display it.

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savvydon

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Looking good

In addition to daily updates maybe at appropriate junctures you can lay out data on a weekly and monthly basis, or better yet chart those movements .

Thanks
 

solarion

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So here's a rough chart of February 2021 silver bullion premiums to date...18 data points with premiums ranging from 2.29(Feb 1) to 2.44(Feb 24). Interesting that they still seem to be rising.

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Platinum bullion premiums for Feb 2021(thus far). 18 data points with premiums ranging from 21.20(Feb 1) to 24.90(Feb 24). Also continuing to climb, though obviously much lower as a percentage of spot for Pt vs Ag.
.
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Uglytruth

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solarion

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With the compression in premiums of late, rounds don't make much sense, but certainly more data never hurts. I haven't bought any generics in some while.

This is essentially, just that though...premiums per ounce over spot. Since Monex seems to post historical premium bullion data, I'm able to kind of cobble this together.

Gold bullion premiums for Feb 2021(thus far). 18 data points with premiums ranging from 33.50(Feb 1) to ...well 33.50(Feb 24). Perhaps unsurprisingly gold premiums haven't changed much in February.

1614215310292.png

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Perhaps it'd have been preferable to chart premium changes as a percentage. Certainly the gold premium chart looks wild, when, in reality, it's the one that easily changed the least.
 

solarion

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I built a new chart of silver premiums. By taking the monex bullion chart adjustment, adjusting that by +2.75, referencing that to spot price, and charting it, I believe I've a relatively accurate representation of typical bullion premiums, as a percentage of total price one would experience in the vast majority of transactions with a vendor.

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Again this is just Feb 2021, with the final data point representing yesterday's close.

As an example, JMB has a pre-sale on Silvertowne 100oz bars for 3185.84(crypto), with a current spot listed there of 26.95. Premium = 4.91 / 26.95 = 18.22%. It seems clear that this is a breakdown of paper "spot" prices to accurately represent physical commodity prices. The premium on the largest bulk silver bar typically delivered to an individual used to be roughly 3 - 5% ...yet here's a 100oz bar, not even available to ship until March 18 and it's carrying a premium of > 18%. The situation is absurd. There's already a mechanism in place to adapt to supply/demand imbalances...it's called higher prices. That that's not happening makes it clear there's serious manipulation going on here, particularly in the silver markets.

https://www.jmbullion.com/100-oz-silvertowne-poured-silver-bar/
 
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Ragnarok

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Kudos and sincere thanks to you Solartion for doing this!

R.
 

solarion

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Paper silver price down 2.94% while physical prices barely move. I'm sure no one will be surprised to find that today's silver bullion premiums are the highest in recent history. Yet to see the beat down on the crimex, one would think the stuff must be the most useless crap ever.

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The cost of an ounce of physical silver bullion is now roughly 19.7% premium over spot. Not because vendors are gouging, but because they're having to pay higher and higher prices to replenish their inventories...even while the paper spot price falls.
 

nowon

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Just makes it more profitable for the mints to take delivery, produce bullion and then make an easy profit on the spread.... haha, squeeze those crooked basturds
 

solarion

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Yep, the crimex is going to get arbed into default if the banksters don't take their jackboots off and let paper metal prices find equilibrium.
 

nowon

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Yep, the crimex is going to get arbed into default if the banksters don't take their jackboots off and let paper metal prices find equilibrium.
As logical as day following night
 

solarion

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solarion

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As you can see premiums on silver bullion continue to expand, both in nominal dollar terms and as a percentage of total price. This even as the spot price continues to be beaten down in the face of continued strong demand and very limited inventory at vendors. Apparently with silver record demand = spot price + ever climbing premiums on physical.

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Note, the final data point used here was March 1 despite the chart descriptors.
 

solarion

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I've changed the way the premium data is lain out on the spreadsheet, added lots of ratios, and spruced up the charts a bit. Premiums on gold and platinum fell a bit with the recent smackdown, but premiums on silver again ticked up a bit. I recently went on another 1000oz bar quest and found none for sale online...at any price, but did note that even had any of the vendors had any good delivery bars to sell, they were charging roughly 2 bucks over spot. Easily the highest I've ever seen.

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solarion

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The paper silver smackdown this morning in the "pre-market"lol, would, if it holds, peg silver bullion premiums at $5.29. A whopping 20.15% with artificially lowered "prices". The powers that should not be, do not want you stacking physical, and they most certainly do not want you stacking shiny silver metal.

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solarion

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Premiums on both gold and silver are now at the highest point, as a percentage of bullion price, since I began this endeavor. Gold premiums are roughly 4.16% over spot, while silver premiums are 20.67% over. This while expected market premium on an ounce of gold declined .20 from yesterday and premium on an ounce of silver declined by .02.

These big paper price smack downs are dramatically lowering spot prices, but that doesn't do much for shoppers of physical looking to buy on the dips as it only lowers price a few cents, while expanding premiums as a percentage of total cost. This reflects a paper price that bears little resemblance to the bullion supply/demand equation.

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solarion

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solarion

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As you can see, silver premiums held steady for the 3rd trading day in a row @ 5.26, while the 1-2 punches to lower the spot price in London and NY have again resulted in higher premiums as a percentage. Gold premiums actually fell by .3 today, but the tag team smashdown led to another new high % premium there as well. Paper platinum did the best of the three carving out a gain today, so premiums there fell slightly as an overall percentage.

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solarion

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With the significant advance yesterday in all three metals I'm tracking here, silver bullion premiums spiked up to match the highest level recorded since I began this endeavor(5.30), yet this represents a slight decline as a percentage of total cost to purchase. Gold did similarly, though the premium increase was less pronounced. Platinum had the largest premium spike on a dollar basis, but also declined as a percentage of total cost.

This represents a best case scenario imo. A situation where spot long since ceased to represent real cost to purchase physical and the increase in spot going forward will, over time, allow the metals to "grow into" their new higher premiums. In retrospect, we may all one day "know" that in 2020 the physical monetary metals diverged from spot prices and never looked back. This means also, that all those experienced stackers waiting on the sidelines for premiums to "come down", may well be disappointed.

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I believe also, that this project has been well worth the effort in terms of providing information on the real state of supply in these three metals. Higher premiums = generally tighter supply, and imo it's only a matter of time before the metals with the most outsized premiums show the greatest advances vs the failing US dollar.
 

solarion

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While gold and platinum premiums held steady on Friday, silver premiums again advanced to a new high(5.32) since I've been charting them.

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solarion

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Silver premiums set another high today at 5.35 while both gold and platinum premiums both continued to tick up slightly from recent bottoms. Gold premiums bottomed on 3/8/21 and platinum on 3/4/21.
 

solarion

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Silver premiums remain at historically high levels, though as spot price rises it looks less disconnected from paper on a percentage basis. Gold and platinum premiums remain relatively steady at elevated, though not historically high levels.

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solarion

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Another all time high for silver bullion premiums both in nominal dollar terms(5.39) and as a percentage(21.44%). Gold and platinum premiums held steady.

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solarion

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Silver premiums remain at an all time high level(5.40), where they've been pegged since last Thursday. As the fake paper price has been manipulated lower every single day since, that has left premiums as a percentage of total cost at a fresh all time high of 21.84%.

Gold and platinum premiums both declined slightly in nominal dollar terms, though with the lower paper prices that has increased the premiums as a percentage of bullion prices.
 

Voodoo

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Today is the first day looking at APMEX that their prices have gone below $30 on some of the low premium items. They look to have more bars in stock then they've had in awhile as well. Still just 20-40 cents from where it was stuck for a long time.
 

solarion

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Yeah Apmex is pretty expensive. I've been strategically sniping krugs from SD Bullion for just under 30 bux a pop, but that's about all I've been stacking since most places seem to have burned through the cheap(ish) Austrian coins. Thing is, premiums of 5.40 / ounce are gobbling up a huge portion of the paper price drops.
 

solarion

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Tremendous jump in silver premiums today...the largest since I began this project in fact. Silver premiums jumped 1.66% today in nominal dollar terms. That's .09 just since yesterday! Checking the online vendors there's almost nothing to buy. ...I ordered more of what I could find, suggest you do the same. Gold and platinum premiums also advanced in nominal dollar terms, but nowhere near the same as silver did.

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This appears to be the best deal by a country mile on 1oz silver. I stacked moar the second I noticed this jump today.

 

Buck

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"Street Premium", 4-1-2021
42+%


$5 fave value, half of a roll, 90% washington quarters, $89.66 current spot price, - Final Sell Price $127.50
 

solarion

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Silver premiums continue to rise, as you can see in the chart. Gold and platinum premiums remain steady.

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nickndfl

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Sooner or later the silver producers will wise up and withhold or slow output to avoid giving away so much to the bankers.
 

solarion

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Seems sooner is more likely than later here. Endeavor silver withholds production...


The tweet is aimed at keith_neumeyer, btw because Keith is the CEO of AG(First Majestic) and shares the same mindset. He's been pushing the primary silver miners to do this for years. I say bravo to them! Hopefully more primary miners join in. PAAS, HL, CDE, etc...