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Optimist charts

Weatherman

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#1
I will use this thread to post a few metals charts that are interesting to me. These charts, and many more, are from my Optimist web site. I update the charts each weekend at the link below:

http://sitekreator.com/Optimist/charts.html

Gold looks to be targeting the Andrews pitchfork mid line around 1265:

GOLD_zoomw.jpg


Palladium may test the bullish channel lower line around 920:

PALLADIUM_zoomw.jpg


YMMV so DYODD!
 

Weatherman

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#2
Metals up and stocks down. The markets got it right today! I should have posted this monthly chart two days ago, but it looked too bullish for me then. A few more days like today will be a game changer!

GOLD_zoom.jpg


The monthly chart of palladium below does not include the further drop today. That puts palladium very close to the bottom of channel line on my chart, for what its worth. A turn to higher prices from here would not surprise me.

PALLADIUM_zoom.jpg
 

Strawboss

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#3
Metals up and stocks down. The markets got it right today! I should have posted this monthly chart two days ago, but it looked too bullish for me then. A few more days like today will be a game changer!

View attachment 101882
If your chart got you excited...you might not be able to handle this monthly view of silver...(courtesy of Searcher):

silver monthly - logarhythmic.jpg
 

Weatherman

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#4
My lower channel line in the weekly chart below is close to the chart above, but I am not yet ready to dream about a multi year bull run. If the banksters will avoid stepping on silver through summer, and it does not have a weekly close below my uptrend line, I can hope for a year end rally that rhymes with the first quarter of 2016. That would target the top of channel line to $25 by Christmas, and maybe to $30 by March.

SILVER_zoomw.jpg
 

Strawboss

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#5
Yup - we are on the same page with this...

Setups don't get much better than this...and the relative level of disinterest - even on a PM board - makes me even more bullish. The PM stocks are underperforming bullion - but when it turns...it will be quick and violent.
 

Weatherman

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#6
Here are charts you will not see anyplace else. They show, not the price in a currency, but the value of silver or gold in any currency. They are derived by multiplying the cost in US$ times the USDX exchange rate (more info at http://sitekreator.com/Optimist/charts.html). People who buy metal related investments to sell later are betting not only on the increase in the metal value, but also (and almost invisibly) on the currency exchange rate fluctuations. The charts below remove the currency component, and would look the same in any currency that is convertible to the US$.

Silver weekly:

MAG-W_zoom.jpg

http://sitekreator.com/Optimist/agxusd_w.html

Gold weekly:

MAU-W_zoom.jpg

http://sitekreator.com/Optimist/auxusd_w.html

The value of crude oil can also be tracked in the same way by multiplying the price in US$ times the USDX exchange rate. Here is the weekly chart:

MOREOIL_zoom.jpg

http://sitekreator.com/Optimist/oil_x_usd.html
 

Weatherman

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#7
If my channel lines in the charts below have value, then silver, gold, and palladium are in a good buy zone. Note that a spike down to flush out weak long stops would not be surprising, but I would hope for a return to near current levels soon. If my stack (or investments for resale later) was too low, I would add some around the current prices. Fortunately, I am not in a rush, so I plan to wait for a few weeks to add positions in hopes that metals will move more or less sideways through the typically weak summer doldrums period.

Palladium deserves a special note because the price structure has been, and continues to be, in backwardation with nearby futures priced higher than distant futures. That is an unusual situation that implies demand for physical palladium is greater now than the futures market expects it to be later. Backwardation often provides fuel for a sharp rally since available physical supply is not sufficient to meet demand. YMMV so DYODD!

PALLADIUM_zoomw.jpg


SILVER_zoomw.jpg


GOLD_zoomw.jpg


http://sitekreator.com/Optimist/charts.html
 
Last edited:

gnome

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#8
Nice charts! I'd be adding, were it not for seasonality. Agree on summer doldrums.
 

Weatherman

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#11
The monthly charts continue to show slow but steady price improvement. Note that the last bar on each chart is only the data from June 1. The risk to reward ratio looks very good for buying around the current prices.

SILVER_zoom.jpg


GOLD_zoom.jpg


PALLADIUM_zoom.jpg


Charts are update weekly at: http://sitekreator.com/Optimist/charts.html