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Options trading strategies for stacking mining shares and/or yield.

Voodoo

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I'm looking a little closer at SBSW. That is a nice dividend yield. But it really increased in 2021 and the stock price was not amused. That is a bit odd. What caused the significantly increased dividend into 2021? It looks pretty good on a weekly chart but need some more momentum on a breakout.

Edit: To add it looks like we are seeing Pt strength as compared to Pa. Generally some higher lows and higher highs and looks like a reversal pattern or at least forming a base.

1648920051550.png
 
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solarion

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What caused the significantly increased dividend into 2021?
They changed their dividend policy to 30-35% of net profits, though I do not know exactly when that change occurred.


The platinum vs palladium thing is interesting as SBSW mines huge quantities of both(as well as rhodium), but is generally associated with platinum prices. Like most dividend paying stocks, they see significant selling immediately following a dividend declaration period.

1648927118957.png


The company is young at 9 years old and also had a huge merger in 2017(forming Sibanye-Stillwater) and the consolidation that followed led to very small dividends for some while. Platinum is down 16.7% YoY and palladium is down 14.33% YoY. I personally believe both of these metals(especially platinum) are heading much higher and I believe SBSW will benefit immensely from that price action.
 

solarion

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Research, that I think is interesting with regard to yield curve inversions...here defined as negative readings on 10y - 2y goobermint debt.

1648941468903.png


A chart of ^XAUUSD vs the Dow Industrials going back to 1970. At each red arrow a yield curve inversion occurred...the last of which being yesterday.

1648941372903.png
 

Voodoo

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Gamestop, before anyone had heard of them had an "official" short position of like 145%. Completely impossible without so much fuckery. And they were so confident that they weren't even trying to hide the fact. Patrick Bryne has been an interesting presence around lately in many areas... Hmm..

Hmm, did someone mention Overstock and Mr Byrne? Let's see what this DD turned up. DRS your shares people. I dislike Readit inserting everything.

Superstonk/comments/tv9pm7

What happened with Overstock?

"Overstock issued digital shares. Because they are tied to a blockchain, they are unique and have intrinsic value that has no cash equivalent. DTCC wanted to get around this and told the brokers that a payment in lieu of a dividend was in order, and DTCC set the value. This was stopped by Overstock in court because DTCC was trying to be shady. That's why it looks like there were two squeezes at Overstock. The first one was stopped when DTCC said that payments in lieu of dividends were okay, and some brokers wanted to implement it that way first."

VERY Interesting.
 

solarion

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Funny stuff. Silver was up .18 overnight and as soon as the NY criminals get to their trading desks...it's mysteriously down .20. Palladium has gone from +70 overnight to +14 since the career criminals in NY took over. There's no fake price that's low enough for these crooks when it comes to commodities.

The problem is that one cannot eat their paper wheat "futures". Counterfeit paper corn does not feed livestock...it merely causes capital mal-investment by distorting pricing mechanisms. These bankster assholes are going to cause a worldwide famine with their idiotic financialization of everything. Higher prices are needed in these commodities to cause more capital investment. People don't build cars with futures contracts, they need actual metal for that.
 

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When it breaks apart, the manipulation will be unrepairable. Some say the collapse will take an hour. Food for thought:

Then the kings of the earth who committed sexual immorality and lived in luxury with her will weep and wail at the sight of the smoke rising from the fire that consumes her.e 10In fear of her torment, they will stand at a distance and cry out:

“Woe, woe to the great city,

the mighty city of Babylon!

For in a single hour

your judgment has come.”

11And the merchants of the earth will weep and mourn over her, because there is no one left to buy their cargo— 12cargo of gold, silver, precious stones, and pearls; of fine linen, purple, silk, and scarlet; of all kinds of citron wood and every article of ivory, precious wood, bronze, iron, and marble; 13of cinnamon, spice, incense, myrrh, and frankincense; of wine, olive oil, fine flour, and wheat; of cattle, sheep, horses, and chariots; of slaves and souls of men. 14And they will say:f

“The fruit of your soul’s desire

has departed from you;

all your luxury and splendor have vanished,

never to be seen again.”

15The merchants who sold these things and grew their wealth from her will stand at a distance, in fear of her torment. They will weep and mourn, 16saying:

“Woe, woe to the great city,

clothed in fine linen and purple and scarlet,

adorned with gold and precious stones and pearls!

17For in a single hour

such fabulous wealth has been destroyed!”

Every shipmaster, passenger, and sailor, and all who make their living from the sea, will stand at a distance 18and cry out at the sight of the smoke rising from the fire that consumes her. “What city was ever like this great city?” they will exclaim.

19Then they will throw dust on their heads as they weep and mourn and cry out:

“Woe, woe to the great city,

where all who had ships on the sea

were enriched by her wealth!

For in a single hour

she has been destroyed.”
 

Voodoo

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If you want to dip a toe, use BBBY. It's kinda where GME was 1+ year ago. Gamestop is gonna be a crazy place

Got my BBBY Bull Call Spread today for a Net Debit of $1.25 (total cost like $378). Got the Aug $34 calls and sold the highest strike Aug $45 calls. So the total width is $11 bucks and only paid about 11% but this is a low probability play.

The sold Put spread is expiring in 9 days and would like to close out but hasn't quite hit my bid. They do report earnings next week Wed.
 

solarion

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This morning just after 8am.

1649160764920.png


Yesterday just after 8am...

1649160838641.png



Some of the comments are a hoot. Some twatter posters actually seem to believe there's a shred of legitimacy to any of the US markets. lol

Q: What's the difference between truth and conspiracy theory?

A: ...about six months.

Definitely nothing to see here...

1649161757750.png
 

solarion

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Fascinating conversation between Chris Marcus and Tom Luongo. Lots of topics broached and while I don't necessarily agree with everything said, it's a fascinating take. Luongo believes the fed will aggressively raise rates in May.

Tom Luongo: Will gold-backed ruble end metals manipulation​

Arcadia Economics
 

Voodoo

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Let me guess.... the FED is now panicking trying to save their system and the FRN... Not gonna happen.
 

solarion

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I'd not have suggested something so mundane. Luongo covers a ton of ground, but what I found particularly interesting was his take on SOFR vs LIBOR and how it represents, according to him, the fed vs the ECB. It's a concept I've not heard elsewhere. The video is well worth the listen imo...and in fact I've saved it to go over it a second time.
 

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I'd not have suggested something so mundane. Luongo covers a ton of ground, but what I found particularly interesting was his take on SOFR vs LIBOR and how it represents, according to him, the fed vs the ECB. It's a concept I've not heard elsewhere. The video is well worth the listen imo...and in fact I've saved it to go over it a second time.

Yeah, that caught my attention. I had never even heard of SOFR really as it does not seem important. I don't know though, I don't think he was really seeing the bigger picture at times. Sure, there are some big fights between the ECB and the FED (because raising rates will destroy the ECB) but the bankers are in the end on the same side. They are just starting to turn on each other to try and survive.

Also, the meme stocks are pulling back a little stronger than I expected. Added MOAR BBBY shares and a deep ITM call and a couple like $23 calls. They have earnings next week so that will be interesting. Will have to reevaluate after that.
 

solarion

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SOFR has been around since 2017, but the asset transition from LIBOR to SOFR calculations was going very slowly for years...though it has largely supplanted LIBOR at this point.

As of Jan 1, 2022 all new loans issued in the United States are to be referenced to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate(SOFR) rather than LIBOR. These are titanic shifts, the effects of which we're only seeing now.
 

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SOFR has been around since 2017, but the asset transition from LIBOR to SOFR calculations was going very slowly for years...though it has largely supplanted LIBOR at this point.

As of Jan 1, 2022 all new loans issued in the United States are to be referenced to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate(SOFR) rather than LIBOR. These are titanic shifts, the effects of which we're only seeing now.

Yeah, I just did a little searching. That is a big shift going from London to NYC but as I see it they are just shifting chairs on the Titanic. Though its the banksters turn to sink with the ship.
 

solarion

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Though its the banksters turn to sink with the ship.
Sure, but those banksters are going to be throwing widows overboard to secure spots on the lifeboats. The ECB banksters appear to be the banksters that had better grow some gills double quick...because the changes to the reference rates appear to have been put in place to allow the fed more latitude with respect to rate hikes.

This is likely why we see the ECB scumbags back peddling already on "tapering" plans...they simply can't have rates rising...and that's the case because their banks are already zombies. While the fed can't raise rates nearly enough to arrest inflation, they may have enough latitude there to raise enough to at least appear to be fighting inflation. This will make the dixy appear very strong because it's majority comprised of the euro dollar.
 

Voodoo

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Sure, but those banksters are going to be throwing widows overboard to secure spots on the lifeboats. The ECB banksters appear to be the banksters that had better grow some gills double quick...because the changes to the reference rates appear to have been put in place to allow the fed more latitude with respect to rate hikes.

This is likely why we see the ECB scumbags back peddling already on "tapering" plans...they simply can't have rates rising...and that's the case because their banks are already zombies. While the fed can't raise rates nearly enough to arrest inflation, they may have enough latitude there to raise enough to at least appear to be fighting inflation. This will make the dixy appear very strong because it's majority comprised of the euro dollar.

I've been calling for a strong dollar still for some time. And so has Martin Armstrong, only because Europe will be falling apart with us raising rates. Throw in Ukraine sanctions and they are KAPUT. But gold and silver will be going up with the dollar and then really shine in the end.

The only real race I see is whether Europe or Japan implodes first.

:popcorn:
 

solarion

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PGM breakout?

1649422457395.png


Both the mainstream catalyst metals have been pushed to levels last seen before the Russian invasion of Ukraine...prompting me to increase my stake in PGM producers outside of the conflict zone. I expect them to rally sharply in the near future.
 

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PGM breakout?

View attachment 253787

Both the mainstream catalyst metals have been pushed to levels last seen before the Russian invasion of Ukraine...prompting me to increase my stake in PGM producers outside of the conflict zone. I expect them to rally sharply in the near future.
Let's see if the Friday Smackdown occurs.
 

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Let's see if the Friday Smackdown occurs.
It usually starts settling in around 2 or 3 pm followed by the Monday smackdown
 

solarion

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I've liquidated 4xSBSW July strike 20 calls for a gain of 0.41 apiece and used the proceeds to roll 2xLAC 2024 leaps UP from strike 42.5 to 37.5 for 1.28 each. The correction in LAC is getting overdone at this point...imo.

Let's see if the Friday Smackdown occurs.
I frankly think they're out of ammo to smack down palladium with any authority...and they're close to dry on platinum at these ridiculously low prices.

1649430854260.png

1649430911444.png
 

Voodoo

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Kinda odd timing. Palladium up big today and SBSW doing well. 5 waves up and ABC correction possibly complete now on that stock.

Retail and general middle class in general looks to be running out of cash. AMC is struggling. I think all the Apes in AMC should switch over to BBBY but that just really can't happen en masse.

On the other end of the spectrum it's pretty clear that institutional money is buying into the PM miners. Slow and steady up days with small pullbacks.
 
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solarion

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HYMC appears to be bouncing off support. Not stacking more, but it may be gearing up for another run. I'd find it more compelling if there was more volume on the way down...indicating more of a seller washout. There's a bunch of new inflation data coming out early next week too. It'll be interesting to see if HYMC begins...or perhaps continues to benefit from the normal drivers of commodity producers...despite being anything but normal.

1649442243357.png
 

Voodoo

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It does look good and boy does AMC need the good news. HYMC with a little Bull Flag if I remember some basic patterns. Bounced right off my 18 dMa with a nice bullish engulfing candle.
 
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Voodoo

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Ok, now I think I've figured out how they extended the Meme stock pullback. The Market Makers have recently (I did not notice exactly which day) added a bunch of Useless strike Option contracts. BBBY has new contracts on every $0.50. So does AMC. Gamestop has a Bunch of new contracts at EVERY DOLLAR. Seriously find me another $150 stock that has option contracts at $120, $121 ... all the way to $149 then by $2.50 above $150. This is HOW they are manipulating the market. Just not sure exactly how this part of the scam works. I think this indicates a Serious increase in Synthetic shorts (ie they sell ITM calls and bought just OTM puts).
 

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Maybe this is over-simplified but just take anything Russia has a large stake of the global market in, and buy its affiliated stock.
Anything “Russian” will be banned or sanctioned.
 

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Maybe this is over-simplified but just take anything Russia has a large stake of the global market in, and buy its affiliated stock.
Anything “Russian” will be banned or sanctioned.

They might try but they have already failed.
 

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They might try but they have already failed.
There were some profits to be made in the interim. When the markets are illogical, logical thought fails.
Our problem is that we try to understand illogical markets.
 

solarion

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Not just on an interim basis, but ongoing imo. Russian commodities will continue to be devalued due to being shunned by the West. That will raise the value of those same commodities produced outside of Russia and Ukraine.
 

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The PGMs picking up where they left off Friday...

1649629549891.png
 

solarion

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Endeavour Silver reports 25% rise in Q1 silver production​

Apr. 11, 2022 7:25 AM ETEndeavour Silver Corp. (EXK)By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Endeavour Silver (NYSE:EXK) +1.6% pre-market after reporting Q1 silver equivalent production rose 4% Y/Y to 2.01M oz, reflecting silver output of 1.31M oz, up 25% Y/Y, and gold production of 8,695 gold oz, down 22% from the year-earlier quarter.

Highlights during the quarter included a 23% increase in silver production at the Guanacevi mine and a 70% increase in silver production at the Bolañitos mine.

Total Q1 sales were 1.72M oz. of silver, up 176%, and 8,381 oz. of gold, down 21%.

Endeavour said the Guanacevi operation continued to outperform, driven by higher grades, and work continued on the Terronera project on final detailed engineering, early earth works, critical contracts and the procurement of long lead items.

Endeavour Silver previously reported breakeven Q4 adjusted earnings on $48.5M in revenues.

 

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I'll have to dig into my paperwork files to find my old E-trade sign-in & password... Haven't checked for over 10 years... I had shares in a/2 ? funds for "junior miners"...
Wonder what they've done in a decade...

I've been out of the "gambling business" for a while now...
 

solarion

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Guessing not very much...unfortunately.

1649681342606.png


The fake uber-financialized economy doesn't tolerate producers of raw materials appreciating to any significant degree. That said, I think we're about to see that change...at least for a time and the producers should make up a lot of ground quickly.
 

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That's what I was guessing...
 

solarion

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Looks like silver is FINALLY ready to rumble after that golden cross three weeks ago and a whopping SIX successful tests of its apparently bulletproof 50 day moving average. My god this thing has required patience as the banksters incessantly hammer it lower with their fake silver derivatives.

1649682515378.png
 

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Looks like silver is FINALLY ready to rumble after that golden cross three weeks ago and a whopping SIX successful tests of its apparently bulletproof 50 day moving average. My god this thing has required patience as the banksters incessantly hammer it lower with their fake silver derivatives.

View attachment 254095
The big question is, how much ammo do they have left and for how long will they use it? Metal prices falling as I type this...
 

Voodoo

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The big question is, how much ammo do they have left and for how long will they use it? Metal prices falling as I type this...

Don't worry about it. We know where this market will be in the "future". Just build a position and stop trying to time it. Timing is more for the option traders. I guarantee that every option trader also has another account that they do just that in, just build a LT position and not pay too much attention.
 

solarion

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Metal prices falling as I type this...
They lower metal prices every morning shortly after 8am and 9:30...then again around 1:30 pm. Guessing they won't be able to continue the overall commodity suppression scam much longer as the fake commodity markets in the West are being drained of physical metal which they need to continue the charade.

"That's right everyone...we've got transitory inflation, but uh...it's transitory for a decade." ~Michael Cowan

Central bankers are sacks of shit that should be publicly hanged. They're going to be directly responsible for millions of deaths worldwide. They could easily have told the truth and encouraged people to prepare for what they knew was coming...because they caused it. Instead they've been playing fucking word games which are going to get a whole lot of people dead by starvation and violence.

1649688618611.png


The benchmark rate is up 1.083%(+64.89%) YoY which coincidentally is EXACTLY equal to price inflation growth over the same period. There's nothing "transitory" about it, and there's NOTHING the fed can do about it...so they keep front running it with their own portfolios to personally benefit, while perpetually lying about the problem and their own ability to correct it. Now they're making like it's all Putin's fault and trying to get the masses of sheeple to blame him...but that's just more bs propagated by professional liars. Vladamir Putin did NOT increase US M2 by 6,334 billion(+40.9%) in less than two years...Jerome Powell did.

1649689159910.png


Next these career criminals will lie some more about what they're going to do to "fix it", while continuing to do the opposite...until they eventually publicly admit that they're going to abandon their doomed to fail FAKE fight against inflation at which time monetary metals will go parabolic.
 
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solarion

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So there was supposed to be new 1yr and 3yr price inflation expectation data coming from FRBNY...and for some reason marketwatch neglected to provide it. ...so I went looking.

1649702084208.png


I'm happy to report that there's nothing to worry about folks...YoY inflation "only" increased by another 10% from February to March...plus the NY fed "expects" inflation to fall by a whole 2.9% to settle at "only" 3.7% within three years.


Nothing to see here folks...and definitely no reason to panic buy gold and silver. ::sarc::

Edit: Took a small short position on the XLF(financial sector). 4xApril22'22 puts with a strike of 37. I could be way off here, but I think there's some bad news floating around in the banking sector and we're going to hear about it later this week when earnings for the big banks begins.

A sharp drop in a bank or two will push the XLF into a death cross, but frankly this thing is not acting right if higher rates are leading to a whole bunch of windfall profits for banksters.

1649704633899.png
 
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Voodoo

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5.25% 30 year mortgage rates. I've been in the real estate business for 10+ years and this would be higher than I've seen.


1649713149268.png


"Actuarial accountant Rachel Linehan told Bussiness Insider that soaring rates slashed their homebuying budget by $100k and has forced them to look at houses in undesirable areas. " -- See. This means in short order home values just LOST $100k of value. They don't need to look elsewhere just wait for the market to realize the change.

So MOAR trading and GIM time for me. Hurray... maybe?