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Options trading strategies for stacking mining shares and/or yield.

Voodoo

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Tried to stack another Put on the Play options but running low on margin. Carnival is definitely rolling over and a little weaker than Play. Everything is choppy and volatile in here.
 

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My HGEN put that I sold a couple weeks ago (Mar 21 $15) is losing value quickly. Had an order in to close at $0.40 a couple days ago but did not fill. Only a week left now and I'll let it go, looks likely to expire worthless.

It seems to me that selling options about 3-4 weeks out is about ideal. And that makes buying options only 3-4 weeks out the worst idea / time frame. The Theta decays faster and faster.
 

Voodoo

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Closed the HGEN put out at $0.15 today. Yes, could have let it ride this week but frees up $1,500 of margin and not worth letting $15 ride. Did add another Put on the play spread at $1. Bought a couple longer term leap options on a Spac or two. One of them I sold the shares as they did nothing and bought the option instead. Also, tried to buy a call spread (a very wide one) on HGEN today Nov call spread $22.5 to $35 for only $2 but they did expire. I will play on that some more in the next few days. 6.25:1 is a pretty good risk/reward. Could also just do a buy write or calendar spread for less margin tied up.

Ok, I got the Nov $25 - Nov $35 call spread for $1.62.
 
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Voodoo

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This is one heck of a pretty looking chart, at least for a stock that is rolling over and getting ready to have a really bad time.
A third lower high in a row, outside reversal to the downside today, declining RSI on each peak, and we just retested the break of the 54 dMA. I might short some shares of this as well.
1621377287595.png
 

Voodoo

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It's been a good day today. My stocks are running and AZO and PLAY are down. I love it when a plan comes together.
 

Voodoo

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Tbonz

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Not an options deal, but one to consider taking a look at PIRS, they signed an agreement, potentially worthy over $1.4 billion.

Went up hugely today, guessing a pullback in the morning.

DYODD just throwing it out there for you guys. Yes I have a small (less than 1k shares) position in this company
 

Voodoo

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That is a STUPID volume number today. I assume you bought in today? Seems like it was kinda out of the blue but that's good revenue. Market cap is still well below that Revenue number although I didn't see a schedule of payments (to attempt a rough DCF). Interesting, probably a little late right at this time but may watch or research that drug a little bit more.
 

Mujahideen

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I’m still learning how to navigate this.

I purchased a 3130 call on Amazon, in the money, expires Friday, +0.04% to break even. Cost 13.4k 83.89% chance of success.

Sold the 3310 call for Friday for exactly $500.


Amazon is 3265.16..

I could have been making this kind of money the whole time?? lol
 
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Voodoo

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Careful, buying short-term call options on expensive stocks is very risky and leveraged. I'd much rather advise selling short term options rather than buying, but that requires either the underlying stock or a bunch of cash.
 

Voodoo

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I’m still learning how to navigate this.

I purchased a 3130 call on Amazon, in the money, expires Friday, +0.04% to break even. Cost 13.4k 83.89% chance of success.

Sold the 3310 call for Friday for exactly $500.


Amazon is 3265.16..

I could have been making this kind of money the whole time?? lol

Try watching this video for some entry level info. If you paid $13,400 for a call option you could lose that REALLY fast. I've never in my life come close to paying that much for an options trade. I did come close covering a GME covered call that I sold and I bought back at a terrible time, essentially losing like $8,000.

 

Mujahideen

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Try watching this video for some entry level info. If you paid $13,400 for a call option you could lose that REALLY fast. I've never in my life come close to paying that much for an options trade. I did come close covering a GME covered call that I sold and I bought back at a terrible time, essentially losing like $8,000.


Just want to clarify it was $134 per contract and only 1 contract.

how I see it, the deeper you go in the money the closer you are to mimicking the stock. You pay very little in premium for the option and just sell it back right before it expires. The call I purchased would barely have to move at all for me to profit off of that… then I see it as getting paid $500 total on top of that to hold Amazon for 2 days.

now that I really think about it I probably should have sold a closer to the money call than what I did just to protect more for the downside. An at the money call is $19.70. and just hope Amazon doesn’t drop half a percent in 2 days.
 
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Voodoo

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Just want to clarify it was $134 per contract and only 1 contract.

how I see it, the deeper you go in the money the closer you are to mimicking the stock. You pay very little in premium for the option and just sell it back right before it expires. The call I purchased would barely have to move at all for me to profit off of that… then I see it as getting paid $500 total on top of that to hold Amazon for 2 days.

now that I really think about it I probably should have sold a closer to the money call than what I did just to protect more for the downside. An at the money call is $19.70. and just hope Amazon doesn’t drop half a percent in 2 days.

Yeah, I've never come close to paying anything near $134 for a contract. Yes, that is similar to owning the underlying stock but you are doing so in a VERY leveraged position. A decline in the stock will have unacceptable risk unless you have a large portfolio. Like I said the most I ever paid was like $75 and that was a buy to close a call option that I had sold and kinda panicked. I really hate the options on the expensive stocks. Call spreads can work a lot better and limit the risk, but I really have little experience especially with the high priced stocks.
 

Voodoo

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Yeah, Solarian was trading at a very advanced level, but there is an awful lot of information there if you want to learn. I was going to go back and see if I can see how some of the trades are going. Closing them out after opening is more difficult in my opinion and that just requires experience.
 

savvydon

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Wow reading this is like trying to learn a foreign language. Its way over my head! !
Lot of hardcore folks crawling out of the wood work around here. Keep reading. eat the fruit. Spit out the seeds.
 

Mujahideen

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Wow reading this is like trying to learn a foreign language. Its way over my head! !

Lol at me trying to explain the general concept to others and then trying to explain the Greeks. It’s taken me months really just to learn the general idea and I’m sure I’m not moving in the most efficient way yet.
 

Goldbrix

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As the title adds STACKING.... I would suggest that maintain or add to stacking on DIPS from now until June 27th when NSFR kicks in outside of the US.
IDK if NSFR will start at the same time in the US as it does in the EU and Britain.
NSFR is the first step to an SDR Basket of prominent world currencies and gold.
DYODD,

OBTW: All these Market moves in equities are due to Central Bank BUYING. When BUYING stops, think of Musical Chairs you played as a kid. You do not want to be the one who misses the last chair.
And you already know WHO will be in the Last Chair (Cen. Banks)
 

Jodster

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As the title adds STACKING.... I would suggest that maintain or add to stacking on DIPS from now until June 27th when NSFR kicks in outside of the US.
IDK if NSFR will start at the same time in the US as it does in the EU and Britain.
NSFR is the first step to an SDR Basket of prominent world currencies and gold.
DYODD,

OBTW: All these Market moves in equities are due to Central Bank BUYING. When BUYING stops, think of Musical Chairs you played as a kid. You do not want to be the one who misses the last chair.
And you already know WHO will be in the Last Chair (Cen. Banks)
Brix, there are other threads discussing how the BASIL III has been delayed a year or two in various jurisdictions. I can’t remember the particular thread but I think Geneva converts over this year, and others to follow. maybe some of the more advanced members can chime in, or use the search feature.
 

Goldbrix

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Brix, there are other threads discussing how the BASIL III has been delayed a year or two in various jurisdictions. I can’t remember the particular thread but I think Geneva converts over this year, and others to follow. maybe some of the more advanced members can chime in, or use the search feature.
Yep, This was supposed to been done in 2018, butt given a reprieve by IMF.
I know the Brits are in with the US and dragging their feet too. The US has more to loose and will delay as long as possible using the WORLD Currency as the waning trump card.
Anyway from now through the end of June should be interesting for gold and "little sis" silver.
Silver is not mentioned by the IMF but silver in joined at the hip with gold as the only true money metals recognized worldwide.
 

Mujahideen

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I lost quite a few hundred dollars but I believe I learned about the same value in my lesson. Kinda glad it went left because I would have kept moving the wrong way.

I should have went and purchased a longer dated call. Now I’m not so deep in the money but I have more time working on my side and a higher number of contracts to collect more premium while the stock rises to my break even.
 

Voodoo

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Oh Really? Not so fast my friend.

Sometimes things are a little more complicated.

View attachment 211771

Next time I post one of these people, remind me to also hope on the train. Dang. Also, I hope Solarian didn't jump in front of this train.

1622655674619.png
 

Mujahideen

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I’ve been very successful with these credit spreads. Iron condors that are deep away from the money. I’ve almost made the money I’ve lost back.

I’m just trying to not be too greedy, that’s how you get burned.

I’m looking for things that aren’t really correlated. GLD/SLV, SPY and TLT. But it looks like when spy suddenly drops so does everything else.

I figure with deep iron condors, at most you can only be wrong on one half of your bet. But from my research it seems that this strategy works until the inevitable day it doesn’t. And that I should watch volatility and not sell puts when people start talking crash or correction.
 

Voodoo

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I’ve been very successful with these credit spreads. Iron condors that are deep away from the money. I’ve almost made the money I’ve lost back.

I’m just trying to not be too greedy, that’s how you get burned.

I’m looking for things that aren’t really correlated. GLD/SLV, SPY and TLT. But it looks like when spy suddenly drops so does everything else.

I figure with deep iron condors, at most you can only be wrong on one half of your bet. But from my research it seems that this strategy works until the inevitable day it doesn’t. And that I should watch volatility and not sell puts when people start talking crash or correction.

The TDAmeritrade TV show thing has live traders. They do a bunch of Iron Condor like trades. They seem to be high probability but low profit trades. Not really my style but I can get on board in a few cases.
 

Voodoo

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Just remember that those "official" numbers are highly suspect these days. That's the real issue driving GME and AMC. There are all kinds of fines and BS where the Hedge funds basically just make this shit up and report whatever they want.
 

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Lost a bit on GME calls this week. I bought in and immediately went up 20%. So I tried to sell and hit limit order instead of market. Took me by surprise at how fast that thing was moving.

Made some back on a LEDS trade. Low float and high short interest. Keeping that on my watchlist.
 

Voodoo

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GME has their earnings and annual meeting June 9th I believe. This may get very interesting.
 

dpong

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Have you ceased shorting PLAY? [On a knife's edge.]

[Weekly chart.]

[I haven't read the whole thread, so sorry if stupid question.]

[On a knife's edge explanation: The weekly chart may be showing a bullish flag pattern. The final green candlestick may be breaking out of the downtrend channel that contains the bullish flag. Going not very much higher from here would appear quite bullish.] [Maybe.]

9ngnDIQ8.png
 
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dpong

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Here is PLAY on daily chart. Same story basically. Check out that double or triple bottom.

XYvnPS7G.png
 

Voodoo

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Have you ceased shorting PLAY? [On a knife's edge.]

[Weekly chart.]

[I haven't read the whole thread, so sorry if stupid question.]

[On a knife's edge explanation: The weekly chart may be showing a bullish flag pattern. The final green candlestick may be breaking out of the downtrend channel that contains the bullish flag. Going not very much higher from here would appear quite bullish.] [Maybe.]

View attachment 213325

No but this was pure manipulation today. I highly suspect that Shitadel pumped this stock and others today (primarily CLOV today). They do show as owning over 1 million shares of Play as of Mar 31. They (Dave & Busters) also report earnings tomorrow so I will hold and see what happens. Some of the vol premium in the call that I sold $50 should disappear regardless.
 
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dpong

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While I cannot defend the channel lines I have drawn, they are mostly based on closing prices. But they do more or less show the idea that alarms me for your short positions. Bull flag, maybe.

It sounds like you are much deeper than me on the details, manipulations, Shitadel, etc. etc. But for myself if manipulation moved the price, then the price still moved. I look at price movement regardless of what caused it. I'm enjoying your perspective on this as well, so please continue to let me understand your thinking. I'm always learning. Thx.

tiF5dF9D.png
 

Voodoo

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We will see. I wrote down the $46 area as to where I would be wrong and look to close. But that move yesterday was full of crap. Highly suspect movement. I'm going to wait a few more days and see what happens. Could be more of a bull trap than anything else. Of course, it could also have been someone leaking good earnings news and buying before it's public knowledge.

It's already down back half of yesterday's move. This stock trades weird and very little volume is needed to move the stock.
 

Voodoo

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Well those were pretty good earnings so I think that trading was definitely some early news got out. But this thing has seen nothing but selling since then. Not really sure why. Perhaps that retail sales boom after the lockdowns and stimi money running out is slowing and people are trading on the real time CC data and such. I'm still holding my positions. May have to look at rolling one or two of my July Puts but still time on those.

Edit: I did try to sell my $55 call option (half of the $50 / $55 spread) just to save some value on that side. However, Etrade didn't allow me to close that side only because, I believe, it would leave me with a naked short call and I don't have the highest Level 4 trading. It wouldn't have hit my 50 cent price anyway.
 
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Voodoo

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While I cannot defend the channel lines I have drawn, they are mostly based on closing prices. But they do more or less show the idea that alarms me for your short positions. Bull flag, maybe.

It sounds like you are much deeper than me on the details, manipulations, Shitadel, etc. etc. But for myself if manipulation moved the price, then the price still moved. I look at price movement regardless of what caused it. I'm enjoying your perspective on this as well, so please continue to let me understand your thinking. I'm always learning. Thx.

View attachment 213363

I assume the plus signs are where the trading system sell point is location. I believe you said that's on a weekly close. Is that like a 25% pull back? What was the system sell limit set to again? Thanks
 

dpong

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You are correct that the + plus signs are how I mark the stop loss level. BTW, congratulations on holding PLAY, it looks like you made the right move so far. PLAY doesn't owe me anything, I will make money whenever I sell it, so you go ahead and take some for yourself!. :)

First, I've included a weekly chart of S&P 500. You should ignore the buy signals and stop losses (+) on this chart.

I've included the 10 week moving average along with the SPX weekly chart. So my stop losses act like this (which I really like.):

If the SPX closes the week above the 10 week MA, we are in condition green and place the stop losses at 40% off of the highest high since we have owned the stock. If the SPX closes the week below the 10 week MA, we are in condition red and place our stop losses at 10% off of this weeks high. We only raise the stops and never lower them.

You can see the green/red in the ribbon control at the bottom of the chart. That shows clearly which state we are in.

Although we never actually use stop losses on the SPX index itself, you can still see on this chart that when we move to condition red the stop losses tend to jump up higher. The SPX and the 10 week MA are a proxy for "generally favorable or unfavorable market conditions."

[When market conditions are favorable, we use wide stops. When unfavorable, we use tight stops.]

10aQ8ahH.png
 
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dpong

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The green/red ribbon that I show on all of my charts is always derived from the SPX and 10 week ma.

Here is a chart of ESNT with the ribbon control. You can see that when the ribbon turns red, the stop losses jump up to 10% off that weekly high.

This stop loss action does a pretty good job of letting us ride winners higher.

4CAH08ls.png
 

dpong

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Here is a final example.

I really like these adaptive stop loss levels.

s1P5zaqG.png
 

Voodoo

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So if the SPX had closed below the 10 week MA say last week then you would suddenly get a bunch of tight stops and sell a bunch on Monday? Or the next Monday. Play would probably also trigger as a sell based on the S&P 500, correct? Hmm.. interesting system.
 

dpong

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PLAY's current stop loss is 37.87. If SPX had closed below 10 week MA last week, then stop loss would have been 10% off of last weeks high. Last weeks's high was 47.95 so 10% off of that high would give us a stop loss of 43.16. We are currently below 43.16, but we would have to close this week (Friday) below 43.16. If that occurred we would sell at the market open on Monday.

It is selling the losers and holding the winners that produces this system's edge.

[And I never have to sweat the decision, it is always cut and dried.]

iCcNw3T1.png