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Options trading strategies for stacking mining shares and/or yield.

Voodoo

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Well I closed out the short $50 call on PLAY just now for 0.43 cents. That was about 85% of the original premium, which I think Solarian had said was around his target. I don't think it makes a lot of sense to worry about the last month on it. Play has hit this like $40.50 level of support four times now. It really looks like it wants to break down but this is a support level. I think I'll just let the $55 call run though I could sell for like 23 cents. More of a potential bounce hedge since I still have like 25 shares short and 2 $35 put options.

1623855604069.png
 

Voodoo

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Just found something that might be interesting to some of you. Sling seems to offer a bunch of Free channels to watch and that includes this TD Ameritrade show. They are always doing examples of some more complicated options trades over lunch hour.

 

Mujahid

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I made 5.4K trading iron condors on nvda, I was going to hold until expiration and make 8k, but it shot up pretty damn fast this opening right to the sweet spot of where both sides of my trade got cheap and I feared that it would keep going and I’d lose on the call side.

Time to buy some bullion in celebration and put money to the side for taxes.

ive read that it’s not a good idea to just have one huge iron condor to trade and to instead make many small trades. 30 to 45 days seems to be optimal. I’m still learning.

Nvda: 731.62 USD +19.21 (2.70%) today.

Gold is down :)
 
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Voodoo

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I made 5.4K trading iron condors on nvda, I was going to hold until expiration and make 8k, but it shot up pretty damn fast this opening right to the sweet spot of where both sides of my trade got cheap and I feared that it would keep going and I’d lose on the call side.

Time to buy some bullion in celebration and put money to the side for taxes.

ive read that it’s not a good idea to just have one huge iron condor to trade and to instead make many small trades. 30 to 45 days seems to be optimal. I’m still learning.

Nvda: 731.62 USD +19.21 (2.70%) today.

Gold is down :)

Would you like to recap the trade? IE which option strikes and the premiums? Just wondering what the leverage was and how much margin that may have required. The high priced stocks have high priced options and I would think that selling premium strategies like the iron condor work fairly well on those stocks.
 

Mujahid

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It’s easier for me to take pictures.

5482FD8F-91AA-4F6E-BE3A-28C5AA5C1962.pngD2DF216E-ECC3-4C9D-980A-16258EB4E493.pngB3EDD1F8-38F7-4584-8BE0-21B2E1C0C72C.png

this stock had some wild swings, it’s 743 now. I’m glad I actually did close it and that I was paying attention at that particular time. It was pushing my put side yesterday and now it’s on the call side.

I should have closed the call side yesterday, I need to work on management.
 
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Voodoo

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That's a lot of money for 3 days. It is pushing right up to those $750 calls. Not sure I'd start with trading that many contracts but I like to start small. So the total trade was for a Net Credit of 2.84 and then bought to close for around $0.98. Nice trade.

I also like to figure out the risk/reward of a trade. I think the max loss on the iron condors would be the spread on One side of the trade (because it can't go both ways). So here that could have been $10 and you were paid $2.84. Seems like a very good risk / reward given the probabilities. Also good that you closed that yesterday cause it's trying to run to $250 and above here today or tomorrow.
 
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Mujahid

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I closed today shortly after opening

A0644B61-43C2-4658-97F1-A1DC277B6A72.png

Jesus I’m lucky.
 

Voodoo

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Yeah, if I did my math correctly the whole thing would be -$3.40 on the last trade. So you'd have a loss right now of $1,600 or so.
 

Voodoo

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Well I closed out the short $50 call on PLAY just now for 0.43 cents. That was about 85% of the original premium, which I think Solarian had said was around his target. I don't think it makes a lot of sense to worry about the last month on it. Play has hit this like $40.50 level of support four times now. It really looks like it wants to break down but this is a support level. I think I'll just let the $55 call run though I could sell for like 23 cents. More of a potential bounce hedge since I still have like 25 shares short and 2 $35 put options.

View attachment 214360

Just closed my $55 call for $0.20. Somehow still got that price even with it down like $2 today and touching below $40 again.
 

Mujahid

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Anyone know a good forum or group for options discussion?
 

solarion

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You tube has a whole lot of great videos on options strategies ranging from the basics to relatively advanced options strategies. Without some idea of your beginning knowledge base, I would recommend learning first about the effects of "the greeks" on contracts...particularly delta, theta, and gamma. A basic fundamental understanding of the forces working for/against you will pay dividends later if/when you wish to construct more complex options strategies.
 

Mujahid

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I understand the Greeks, mostly.

I’m looking for hot picks discussion. I’m willing to get past a pay wall if it’s worth it.

(yeah I’m lazy)
 

Voodoo

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Good to see you back Solarion. Play is going the right direction but stubbornly so my Puts are melting. Gores Holding / Matterport is doing well today, I like that one Long-Term. Anyone see NewEgg today? I like the company did they also go public via a SPAC?
 

solarion

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I understand the Greeks, mostly.

I’m looking for hot picks discussion. I’m willing to get past a pay wall if it’s worth it.

(yeah I’m lazy)
Options move so quickly that "hot picks" seem mostly redundant. One really can just guess basic trends correctly and make a bundle. Calls on the SILJ & GDXJ when the scumbags are done beating on them and they bottom should be easy money. My best performing long asset over time has been a little known primary silver producer called Gatos silver.

If you're conservative minded...then credit spreads are a no-brainer. If you're into moderate risk, then I'd get comfortable with how zebra strategies function and aim them at index based ETFs...particular ones based on commodities. Gold, silver, uranium, copper, etc. It's not so much if, but when these things break free imo.
Play is going the right direction but stubbornly so my Puts are melting.
That's where selling a near term call short to offset the high theta comes in handy. PLAY is fascinating as the earnings calls are filled with misleading comments with regard to the company's financial condition. Taken at face value, one could come away thinking the company has secured nearly $1.5b in revolving credit, but that's not the case. It's more like $900m at nearly 8%. Their financial condition is as ugly as their future prospects in a world of fear porn about a new "variant" of a plandemic.
 

Voodoo

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Voodoo

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Play is starting to tank today with some very odd stories out over the weekend. They seem desperate for having the price mostly above $40, until today of course. I had looked at selling another call but won't do that today. Hopefully we can get this under $35.


Shares in the sports bar-cum-video arcade restaurant chain were a very hot topic on Reddit boards Monday, with mentions of the ticker symbol PLAY soaring 26,700% according to HypeEquity, and trading volume had already exceeded its daily average two hours before the closing bell.

But even with that action, Dave & Buster’s stock ended 0.7% lower. This comes as Reddit arguments touting the chain as a cheap re-opening trade target were met with skepticism by users who saw the sudden burst of interest as evidence of a possible pump-and-dump scheme, rather than a bona fide meme-inspired gambit.
 

Voodoo

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Looks like it did go public with a reverse merger deal on May 20th.


View attachment 216250

DAMN it. I did it again. People when I post one of these things tell me to BUY. New Egg is now at $72. WTF. Efficient markets are broke ass POS.
 

dpong

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DAMN it. I did it again. People when I post one of these things tell me to BUY. New Egg is now at $72. WTF. Efficient markets are broke ass POS.
Wow!
 

Voodoo

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Covered the pair of MAY '21 INTC 65 strike puts I'd sold short...for a realized profit of 3.10 combined. I left two each puts in place at 57.5 & 60 as I still don't like their market positioning going into their earnings.

The bear call isn't bad. Not much upside, but not much downside either, and credit spreads are groovy. Still, I like my ratio spreads for volatility. If you straddle the moneyness line with a bear put...uh currently 28.5/28 and then go long another put at a lower strike then you'll end up with very little invested and near unlimited gains if CCL tanks on earnings. Say you lined up puts on the APR 16 expiry like this +28.5/-28/+26 then your downside is capped and your upside is limited only by expiry. A relatively low probability strategy, but one with a massively outsized reward/risk potential. Call it a ratio spread or a bear put with an extra long put whatever you wish, but it's a good strategy when one has a directional bias and expected spike in volatility.

View attachment 206769

Again...do not blame me if you do this and get clipped please. It's merely a suggestion. I've long puts scattered all over that APR 16 chain paid for with bear calls and a net credit overall, so I'm not going to be following my own advice here. I think CCL is garbage and the run up is completely unjustified, but that doesn't mean it's going to tank...just that I like my odds here.

Remember, you want to be a net buyer on whichever side of the order book is being whacked. The put side ratio spread makes sense here because the puts are on sale today.

Really wish I had gotten on this play as we knew it had problems. The cruise line stocks finally wised up to the problems. The last earnings represented a top about $31.

1626391816793.png
 

Voodoo

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I have realized that these higher probability-lower risk option trades are not really my style but they are still very good to understand. This was a good in-depth video on one particular strategy. Credit Spreads.

Basically to sum up in one sentience. The best back-tested strategy to look for... 45 days to expiration. Sell ATM calls/puts with a Delta close to 50 and Buy OTM options with a Delta close to 25. Finally collect at Least 33% of the width in credit and aim for 40% of the width. This is around 29 min mark of the video.


When to Exit.
Credit Spread Exit's.jpg
 
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Voodoo

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He also sums up Hedge Funds and these bad short trades like AMC and GME pretty well at 40 mins. They got WAYYY too deep and cannot afford to lose now.
 

Voodoo

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I'm gonna post this here as well mostly as a reminder to myself. They pretty much recommend All option sales to be 45 days out (this works out to a Tuesday for Friday expiration). This is a pretty good summery of Covered Calls which almost any investor can look to utilize. They like to look at selling the strike that has about a 10 to 20 Delta (low odds). If you do want to buy it back look at around 20% of original premium.

 
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Voodoo

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So I thought I'd update this thread as I added a couple little more option trades today. Looking for a potential significant downdraft.

Bought a DIA Bear Put Spread for a net debit of $1.55.
Buy Nov $315 Puts and Sold Nov $290 Puts. $25 spread paying 6.2% of the width but this is low probability (says 9% chance)

1631654342846.png


And I used a reversal trade similar to the Play spread that we did earlier in the year.
Used a Credit Call Spread and bought further out Puts
Sold Oct $85 Calls
Bought Oct $90 Calls for Net Credit of ~$1.72 (34% of $5 spread)
Bought Jan22 $65 Puts for a total Net Debit (inc above) for $1.1.

1631654203738.png
 

Mujahid

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1ED006F2-3D84-4395-BB1E-8ABE5DF04BE5.png


I am eyeing this trade. Just trying to figure out how deep I want to dive into it.

I believe ANET is splitting soon.
 

Mujahid

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Facebook and Tesla options are paying well. Call debit spreads are looking good. You can make some in the money plays for a nice penny.
 
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Voodoo

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So I thought I'd update this thread as I added a couple little more option trades today. Looking for a potential significant downdraft.

Bought a DIA Bear Put Spread for a net debit of $1.55.
Buy Nov $315 Puts and Sold Nov $290 Puts. $25 spread paying 6.2% of the width but this is low probability (says 9% chance)

View attachment 224908

And I used a reversal trade similar to the Play spread that we did earlier in the year.
Used a Credit Call Spread and bought further out Puts
Sold Oct $85 Calls
Bought Oct $90 Calls for Net Credit of ~$1.72 (34% of $5 spread)
Bought Jan22 $65 Puts for a total Net Debit (inc above) for $1.1.

View attachment 224907

Also, I think I forgot the stock name, lol. Kinda important but that was on Royal Caribbean Cruise Line.

Well I'm going to give this trade a B-, but it's finally paying off today. I had to roll the RCL Oct's to Nov and they were pretty much a wash to small loss. The Jan Puts were also pretty good losers, until today.
 

Voodoo

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Trying another RCL complex option trade today. Just 1 leg and I got a whopping $20 credit or something. But it does take like $1,000 of margin. They announced an "announcement" on Friday for a corporate update. This can't be good news but we will see. The market makers own this stock. They ramp it in the morning and then it slowly fades. I am also short like 20 shares.

About $81 bucks a share today
Sold a March Call Spread $80 and bought the $85. Used that to buy a $70 Put. We'll see if i can make it work any better this time.
 

dacrunch

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On options futures... I never could get a handle on "hedging my bets" - but NEVER used "margin" (I'm not suicidal...)

Was back in the day of the dot-coms... I had a simple "guesswork strategy"... based on "charting technical analysis" (cup & handle etc...)

I didn't even know ANY details on the companies at all... P/E etc...

I'd place 5 "out-of-the-money" calls or puts for $1k each on those that looked like they "might move" according to "chart action" - often just before "earnings release"...

I'd lose 100% on 3 out of 5, in general (but NO MARGIN to get KILLED!!!) - but the 2 "winners" would sometimes give me 300% or 500% gains - more than covering the losses.

My best "gamble" (because it's "Casino Gambling" the way I did it) - was turning $1k into $15k in a week with Dell... (checking every 15mn over the phone with the automated broker... from a payphone at Disney World, haha! no "cell phone"...)

Since then, I can't "chart technically" ANY stock, because the Banksters' Algorithm Trading has completely overturned "technicals" (and "fundamentals" as well)... So I don't "gamble" any more...

I "cut & pasted" the online charts into "paint" - then would "draw trend lines"... looking for "break-outs" and "resistance" (up or down) among other factors... also tried "stochastics"... and a few other factors... Forgot all that by now...

(I'm one of those old farts referred to as "he's forgotten more than you'll ever know", haha!)
 
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solarion

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I've moved back into SILJ with a 4:1 ratio calendar zebra.

Long 4 x Jan 20 '23 calls with a strike price of 5.
Short 1 x Aug 19 '22 call with a strike price of 11.

This results in 3.328 deltas and a +0.0008 theta...so decay should not be a problem. SILJ is sitting right on it's 200 day MA on a weekly chart, so this is essentially a bet that it won't see much further breakdown. I'll probably be stacking several of these constructs and sitting on them for a few months. I can't imagine silver is much above production cost here, and with energy prices climbing and price inflation increasing...well it certainly should be turning around.

Top SILJ holdings are:

First Majestic 12.62%
Pan American 10.68%
MAG silver 8.68%
Yamana Gold 7.71%
SSR Mining 5.02%
Turquoise Hill 4.50%
Silvercrest Metals 4.11%
Hecla 3.37%
 

savvydon

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The timing is the tough part. Sometimes takes longer than you think. Good luck out there.
 

solarion

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I'm counting on the Fed doing what the fed does to cover the timing. Lying. Short of jacking up fed funds 50 basis points in March and several more 50 basis point increases this year...even the dumbest sheep will figure out they're not serious about slowing price inflation.

These assholes haven't yet lifted a finger to slow inflation and I'm betting they cannot fight inflation without blowing everything up, so their nonsense about a bunch of tightening this year to dial down price inflation is bs. Yeah they may jack up fed funds a few times...probably a piddly 0.25% each time, but that'll be like pissing on an inferno...particularly with energy prices climbing.
 

savvydon

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Agree, but there are lots of moving parts. I thought 2021 was the year we were going to see silver move. Maybe 2022... we c.
 

solarion

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Absolutely. These crooks are really good at rigging everything, so they're holding down commodities...as usual. Can they do it for another year? I doubt it...not with oil surging toward $100 a barrel. This is going to get ugly. I suspect many of these mines aren't far above the cost of production at this point. Paper silver is down roughly 7 bux(23%) in the past year...pushing SILJ down to just North of 11 bucks a pop. Ridiculous in a world of double digit price inflation.

Zero extrinsic back ratios(zebras) can be used to chop another 35% off the cost of simulated shares of an already cheap junior silver miner index. One can get nearly a year of price exposure to SILJ for a bit over $7 per delta...it's a ridiculously efficient way to play this and the deep in the money calls are well insulated from the market riggers. Lots of time and lots of intrinsic value...bring on the fake market action. ;)
 

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There's NO F'N WAY that the FED isn't putting money in hand over fist to prop this market up. From my initial look at things we are seeing a slow walk down of the markets: big drop, slow walk back up close down half of the morning drop. Wash, rinse, repeat and guess what, the common man investor gets cooked just like the frog.
 

Voodoo

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There's NO F'N WAY that the FED isn't putting money in hand over fist to prop this market up. From my initial look at things we are seeing a slow walk down of the markets: big drop, slow walk back up close down half of the morning drop. Wash, rinse, repeat and guess what, the common man investor gets cooked just like the frog.

I agree but that means we hyper-inflate. Will look to get mostly out of the dollar by March. No more shorts even for the crap stuff.

Edit: The ECB did talk up rates but they did nothing to actually raise them. I think they are in serious trouble. But we've been told the US is best of the rest but look at all the banks that have actually already raised rates. Canada, UK, and many smaller countries.
 
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solarion

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Official federal debt just passed $30t. Now we'll start to see a consistent increase in wages that won't keep up with price inflation, but they'll continue to feed one another in a vicious circle. The exploding energy prices will backstop it all. Crude oil is up 61.18% YoY...and we've scarcely begun to see the effect that will have yet...same as the effect that a tripling of fertilizer prices will be having. I suspect sugar is about to get a whole bunch more expensive, because a whole lot of farmers are planting soybeans instead of corn.

The inflation cake is baked imo.
 

Voodoo

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Farmers will plant just as much corn as usual. The real problems may come from that volcano affecting S. America and Australian production.
 

solarion

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I think we see a repeat of 2008. Soybean needs far less fertilizer than corn...it's going to be very compelling. Particularly so if fertilizer prices continue to climb...after doubling just since May of last year.


 

Voodoo

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I talk to a lot of farmers here in the midwest, I think fertilizer prices are overblown. Many farmers don't even use the ammonia fertilizers. Many tell me they aren't going to change much. The crop rotation is more important and many don't want to change it up. Growing corn on corn (subsequent years) can really effect yields. So the cheap way is to just grow soybeans one year and corn on that area the next.
 

Voodoo

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Trying another RCL complex option trade today. Just 1 leg and I got a whopping $20 credit or something. But it does take like $1,000 of margin. They announced an "announcement" on Friday for a corporate update. This can't be good news but we will see. The market makers own this stock. They ramp it in the morning and then it slowly fades. I am also short like 20 shares.

About $81 bucks a share today
Sold a March Call Spread $80 and bought the $85. Used that to buy a $70 Put. We'll see if i can make it work any better this time.

As I expected their earnings were bad, probably worse than I thought. Going to let the trade run a bit though so theta decay on the call helps as well.


Total revenues982,24734,139
Operating Loss(1,031,745)(1,016,545)

That's all you really need to know. Revenue did bounce back almost $1 Billion dollars. AND they LOST more money. Ouch.

Also this: I doubt you can ever make money with this either.

Occupancy59.3%