Options trading strategies for stacking mining shares and/or yield.

[solarion]

Nice write up on GORO's latest earnings call as well as a look at their forward guidance.

Gold Resource: Back Forty Is Beginning To Take Shape (NYSE:GORO)

Gold Resource indicated a GEO production of an estimated 11,149 GEOs. I recommend buying GORO below $1.90.

seekingalpha.com

From a technical standpoint, there's clear evidence of a share price breakout and a re-test of long term support well under way. That spells...accumulate at these levels in my book...so I've been adding to my stack of June17'22 2.5 strike calls whenever I can get them for under 0.15 each.

Also on seeking alpha is an in depth analysis of the goings on with EXK. While I was somewhat bearish on Endeavor's prospects in the short term, I'm closer to neutral at these lower prices. The Pitarilla mine acquisition from SSR isn't exactly a stunning win for the company, but the majority of the cost...$70m is already paid up. Going forward the risk there is the necessary capex required to get the thing up and running...which is several years into the future, but does give the company ownership of more confirmed silver, lead, and zinc. Trying to give management the benefit of the doubt here and assume they've not bitten off more than they can chew.

Endeavour Silver Stock: Bold Acquisition To Help Development (NYSE:EXK)

Endeavour Silver announced that it's acquiring the Pitarilla Project from SSR Mining this week, a massive silver project in Mexico. See more on EXK stock here.

seekingalpha.com

Anyway, from a technical standpoint, the damage could have been far worse had the share price not rebounded throughout the day. The big washout seller volume on the way to re-testing long term support may ultimately prove to be a positive going forward. That said, I still see EXK as a short term flip opportunity on overdone selling. There are better opportunities elsewhere longer term imo.

 

[solarion]

Back into CCJ calls on weakness this morning...and they're hopping. May calls.

Also doubled up on KWEB after the huge bounce and inevitable pullback. Also May calls.

...and again added to the stack of SBSW July 20 strike calls to lower my cost basis. Now my single largest company specific holding. The thing is set up to go to the moon with PGM prices rebounding.

Nice to see EXK rebounding and now back over 5 bux.

Added significantly to my TGB(Taseko mines). The thing just isn't seeing much love even with higher copper and gold prices. I tacked on 2 more May 2 strike calls and 8 12xMay 2.5 strike calls...the latter at a silly cheap price of 0.08 each.

Sure, economic slowdown = bad for doctor copper...I get it, but it's not like the stuff is suddenly going to get useless...and Cu prices are soaring.

 

[Voodoo]

Yeah, it is a bit confusing as the bond market yesterday is clearly signaling a Fed error and a recession coming. But Dr. Copper is still near or making new highs... Stagflation or worse (hyper-inflation IMO) is on the horizon. This is the market calling all the fakery out and testing prices to see just what is really out there.

 

[solarion]

I think a lot of investors are confused about what to do. They're well trained to buy the dips in overpriced dow diamonds, QQQs, SPYs, etc...and that strategy isn't likely to work all that well this time imo.

Tacked on a couple calls on AEM(Agnico Eagle Mines) on the pullback. 2xJune17'22 strike 65 calls. This thing is way undervalued relative to its peers, imo, for a major player in the space.

Also stacked another LAC May20'22 27.5 call on weakness.

Rolled 4xFSM Jan20'23 strike 3 calls out to Jan19'24 strike 5 calls while picking up a credit of 0.23 each. Fortuna has been slow and steady...something I'd like to hold onto long term.

 

[solarion]

Added some OR(Osisko gold royalties) on weakness. 4xJUL15'22 strike 15 calls. The company had less than a year's worth of cash on hand, so you just had to know it was coming. This morning they announced a share placement deal(dilution) and the shares naturally sold off. ...down roughly 7% when I stacked calls for 0.60 each.

Added a bit of SILV(Silvercrest) 4xJune17'22 strike 10 calls for 0.85. This thing has good growth and is significantly undervalued...as in 75% undervalued. It should go into catch up mode at some point.

Backed into a couple calls on URA(Global X uranium ETF) with a lowball bid someone filled for me...thank you someone. 2xJune17'22 strike 26 calls for 2.85 each.

Added SAND(Sandstorm gold) 4xJune17'22 strike 8 calls for 0.75 each.

Added GATO 4xAUG19'22 strike 7.5 calls for 0.50 each during the daily NY bankster lunchtime metals takedown.

 

[solarion]

Added some Barrick gold at close on Friday. When I added it I was thinking short term flip, but the more I think on it, the more I think it could do very well in the mid term...even relative to some juniors. Obviously Barrick is a huge company, and as a result grows slowly. However, they are a major in the sector and unlike the other gorilla they've not experienced the same share price love that has Newmont. While Newmont is near all time highs, Barrick is at just 42% of its all time high. Valuation wise both are undervalued imo, though GOLD is significantly more so.

I also think the low share price will appeal to more retail investors as people with small amounts to invest will be drawn to $24 shares over $75 shares in NEM. Anyway, I stacked 6xApril14'22 24 strike calls for 0.84 on Friday looking for a quick pop back into the money...and it looks like I'll get it here, but after I flip these, I may just begin accumulating a position in longer term Barrick calls.

I've also added NSR(Nomad royalty) and AUMN(Golden minerals) to the watch list and will look to accumulate on weakness.

 

[Goldbrix]

I like GOLD, but I am a long term BUY & HOLD guy w/ Div. Reinvestment. GOLD should have an interesting year if production remains steady or improves as the company has modified their dividend structure.

 

[solarion]

They also announced this morning that they've concluded a deal with the Pakistani authorities to restart operations at their Reko Diq gold/copper mine(I didn't know this was coming). This and the dividend structure changes have resulted in those options I bought on Friday going up by 38% so far today. So I've put a trailing stop on them.

I'll look to take profits here and re-buy at a more favorable point in their options chain. Lots of good stuff going on over there, and I think they'll benefit enormously from the rise in gold prices...particularly if management stops shooting themselves in the foot.

Stopped out of Barrick 24 strike calls @ 1.10 and picked up some strike 25 calls near the lows of the day.

Here's an interesting writeup today on how Barrick management is trying to kiss and make up with investors.

Barrick Gold: Shareholder-Friendly Blue-Chip Miner Remains Top Mining Stock (NYSE:GOLD)

Barrick Gold was one of our Top Picks heading into 2022 and it has richly rewarded us thus far. Read what to know about GOLD stock here.

seekingalpha.com

Here's an excerpt:

The company currently trades at 6x on an EV to forward EBITDA basis, 22x on a price to normalized earnings basis, and 18.9x on a price to free cash flow basis. In contrast, close peer NEM trades at 9.2x on an EV to forward EBITDA basis, 24.5x on a price to normalized earnings basis, and 18.9x on a price to free cash flow basis. Another close peer, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) trades at 9.1x on an EV to forward EBITDA basis, 25.6x on a price to normalized earnings basis, and 27.7x on a price to free cash flow basis.

GOLD is clearly the valuation leader relative to both of these peers even though its assets are arguably just as strong, its CEO is arguably the best in the business, and its shareholder return policy is - in our view - the most prudent of the three.

I have to say, I like very much the recent actions by the company. After years of questionable decisions, they seem to finally be getting it.

 

[Voodoo]

Alright, made a bunch of trades again today. Help me Rhonda. Actually played some bearish protection on GME. Don't like it breaking what was good support at $87 with next support a giant air gap to the $40's. Perhaps some help in $66 range. Bought a Put spread for April and just some short term $55 puts in my IRA to help protect those shares after selling 1 $95 call for some cash to do that.

Stacked 350 more POYYF cause its under $1.75. Call me crazy
Picked up a little HYMC (are you crazy the miners and meme stocks are merging !!!)
And i just added 2 AG Oct $11 calls (look at that sweet, sweet bullish engulfing candle).

Well these secondary trades look fine. However, of course when I buy a little GME protection it was a bear trap. And I fell for it and it may cost me a bunch. The puts are gonna expire and only out like $300 bucks, no big deal. However, GME just took off today and that sold covered call expiring Friday is killing me. We just hit $145 after hours so that CC is "down" $5,000 (really just prevents my stock gain). I see resistance at $130 and $160 and I really wouldn't mind selling some of these shares at these prices so I can balance a little more into BBBY, miners, etc. I did try a couple small credit orders earlier today to roll and had no luck and not enough cash to hit the bid. I don't know what I will do but may have to roll out in time significantly for these shares, or bring some cash to the table. I am lucky this was on only 100 of my 300 shares in the IRA.

Thoughts on the best way to maximize a gain here Sol?

 

[solarion]

You really landed yourself in a sling selling that call so close to the current price, at the bottom of a volatility channel, below resistance, with such a tight expiration. You probably know the way the stock moves better than I...what do you suppose the odds are of it pulling back to at or below its 50 DMA within the next two regular sessions?

The daily candle already has a healthy wick as it spiked up to 147.50 at one point. It should be a down day in the broader markets after the big...unjustifiable rally we just saw. Futures are down a bit...as are cryptos. My advice would be to hope for profit taking apes to beat it down under that average and pick that call up. It's unlikely to expire OTM at this point, but perhaps you can use a pullback on a technical basis to minimize the damage. Failing that, perhaps you could shop for an offsetting call slightly further OTM with the same expiry to turn it into a vertical spread, in case it gets away from you.

Going over their(GME's) last surprisingly large quarterly loss, I noticed that they had a bit of a surge in software sales. While the thing is horrendously overpriced, it has remained that way since forever...so it seems likely to continue being so. Any positive details that can be extrapolated from their earnings is probably going to continue to fuel short squeezes for some while.

 

[solarion]

Russian stocks to start trading for the first time since Ukraine invasion

The Central Bank of Russia said stock market trading will resume on Thursday for the first time since the country invaded Ukraine, triggering crippling economic sanctions from the West. Trading in 33 companies in the Moscow Exchange Index will be permitted from 9:50 to 14:00 Moscow time. There...

www.marketwatch.com

Russian stocks to start trading for the first time since Ukraine invasion​

Published: March 23, 2022 at 7:52 a.m. ET
By

Steve Goldstein​

The Central Bank of Russia said stock market trading will resume on Thursday for the first time since the country invaded Russia, triggering crippling economic sanctions from the West. Trading in 33 companies in the Moscow Exchange Index will be permitted from 9:50 to 14:00 Moscow time. There will be a ban on short sales for these securities. Overseas listings of Russian securities plummeted in value after the invasion.

 

[Voodoo]

You really landed yourself in a sling selling that call so close to the current price, at the bottom of a volatility channel, below resistance, with such a tight expiration. You probably know the way the stock moves better than I...what do you suppose the odds are of it pulling back to at or below its 50 DMA within the next two regular sessions?

The daily candle already has a healthy wick as it spiked up to 147.50 at one point. It should be a down day in the broader markets after the big...unjustifiable rally we just saw. Futures are down a bit...as are cryptos. My advice would be to hope for profit taking apes to beat it down under that average and pick that call up. It's unlikely to expire OTM at this point, but perhaps you can use a pullback on a technical basis to minimize the damage. Failing that, perhaps you could shop for an offsetting call slightly further OTM with the same expiry to turn it into a vertical spread, in case it gets away from you.

Going over their(GME's) last surprisingly large quarterly loss, I noticed that they had a bit of a surge in software sales. While the thing is horrendously overpriced, it has remained that way since forever...so it seems likely to continue being so. Any positive details that can be extrapolated from their earnings is probably going to continue to fuel short squeezes for some while.

View attachment 251602

Yeah, I think that was a high Gamma call and so now I know what gamma feels like. I think I'm just going to roll it up slowly a couple weeks or month at a time and go up $10-15 strikes at a time. Their earnings were not good as I sort of expected (hence the bearish protection) but clearly the market did not care. They are spending more with all the new tech hires and a couple warehouses. You have to admit that chart was looking pretty bearish and there was a huge air gap from $87 to like $40. That was a little frightening, even to me. So putting <1/5 of my shares on the line was worth it.

The CEO himself is the one who just trapped the bear's. He bought 100,000 shares at MARKET yesterday and put the SEC filing after the close. He bought everything from $96 to $108.

So I still want to ratio trade between the meme stocks I think until the squeeze. With GME having a huge day it makes me want to sell some and buy BBBY or some other meme stocks like AMC or even HYMC.

Edit: In fact, as I form this idea GME will be like gold and AMC or BBBY is the silver.

 

[Voodoo]

Russian stocks to start trading for the first time since Ukraine invasion

The Central Bank of Russia said stock market trading will resume on Thursday for the first time since the country invaded Ukraine, triggering crippling economic sanctions from the West. Trading in 33 companies in the Moscow Exchange Index will be permitted from 9:50 to 14:00 Moscow time. There...

www.marketwatch.com

Russian stocks to start trading for the first time since Ukraine invasion​

Published: March 23, 2022 at 7:52 a.m. ET
By

Steve Goldstein​

The Central Bank of Russia said stock market trading will resume on Thursday for the first time since the country invaded Russia, triggering crippling economic sanctions from the West. Trading in 33 companies in the Moscow Exchange Index will be permitted from 9:50 to 14:00 Moscow time. There will be a ban on short sales for these securities. Overseas listings of Russian securities plummeted in value after the invasion.

Good news, anything from the ETF providers on RSX or some of the other OTC stocks. If the Russian market is open I imagine they have to start trading those again as well.

 

[solarion]

Good luck. Hopefully GME pulls back a bit and gives you some space to cover at lower prices.

As to the lot of em, I see BBBY and AMC as pure zombie companies and stay away...particularly in a rising rate environment. GME is a bit different as their business has a theoretical future...though again the current valuation is ridiculous. The move into HYMC though is right in my wheelhouse. Even though it's a bit of a longshot to really produce much in the way of recurring earnings...it's certainly possible. Obviously they're in the right business at this point in time.

Also, something that went largely unnoticed given the carnage in the miner space last fall was this tidbit:

"Recent exploration drilling in the Vortex Zone has encountered significant intercepts including 51.8 meters (170 feet) grading 2.47 grams per tonne ("g/t") (0.072 ounces per ton ("opt")) gold and 25.5 g/t (0.744 opt) silver (H21R-5592) and an additional intercept of 30.5 meters (100 feet) grading 0.71 g/t (0.021 opt) gold and 17.5 g/t (0.528 opt) silver in drill hole H21R-5591 (see Table 1 below for additional information). This drilling has identified gold grades that are five times higher than the average mineral reserve grades at Hycroft of 0.34 g/t (0.011 opt). In addition, pre-collar drilling of the metallurgical holes has identified oxide material in various areas of the ore body which could enhance the run-of-mine ("ROM") plan. The results of drilling and metallurgical work from this drill campaign will be included in our next mineral resource update and planned feasibility study, expected by the end of the first quarter 2022."

Hycroft Drills Higher Grades in Vortex Zone Highlighted by 51.8 Meters of 2.47 g/t Gold and 25.5 g/t Silver

/PRNewswire/ -- Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (Nasdaq: HYMC) ("Hycroft" or the "Company"), is pleased to report on recent drill results from its wholly...

www.prnewswire.com

So basically, not long after those cores were drilled, they were forced into a round of layoffs due to dwindling liquidity which seemed to bring the vultures circling over head. I imagine Garrett viewed this as a "hail mary" to attract some much needed capital investment. Seemingly this worked because those are far higher grades than typical on Hycroft's property and I would guess this is why Sprott and Aron were willing to pony up $28m apiece at share prices around $1.08 to keep this thing running. If you do the maths on it, Sprott and Aron(AMC) also collectively have just enough shares to override Muddrick's shares if they work together. Very interesting indeed.

Good news, anything from the ETF providers on RSX or some of the other OTC stocks.

Van Eck properly marked their RSX holdings to market(pennies on the dollar) giving some a real scare with regard to their percentage of cash on hand, but there is no evidence that they ever sold those shares as holdings are quite similar to where they were when trading was halted and NAV was just under $6 per RSX share.

GORO has been on a tear...just about to push my decent sized el-cheapo stack of June 2.5 strike calls ITM. I can't say that I'm sad about it. I like to get a 3 or 4x out of it.

 

[Voodoo]

Goro has been doing well. Broke above that previous 2.30 level so back to 3 or 4 looks good.

This guy used to be a professional trader and he is doing a trade right now to do what I was considering. Selling some GME to buy AMC and reducing his risk. A little hard to understand but he does very good TA.

 

[solarion]

I'll take a look, though I'm fascinated and a bit surprised that people want to play this stuff with PM miners so ridiculously cheap and so obviously about to soar. It smacks of gambling against house odds rather than investing. lol

Dozens of commodity producers with dirt cheap valuations at a time when high inflation is so obviously going higher. It seems clear where capital should be flowing.

 

[Voodoo]

I'll take a look, though I'm fascinated and a bit surprised that people want to play this stuff with PM miners so ridiculously cheap and so obviously about to soar. It smacks of gambling against house odds rather than investing. lol

Dozens of commodity producers with dirt cheap valuations at a time when high inflation is so obviously going higher. It seems clear where capital should be flowing.

These meme stocks are all about how broken the markets are. They will go first and I hope to roll into the commodity producers. Though I imagine I will always own a little GME.

 

[Voodoo]

Ok, I'm gonna try a 1x2 trade to back out of this.

TD is not letting me do this as a combined order so I'm selling a Apr 29 highest strike price of $205 to bring in $7.5. Then I'll try to roll to the April 29 around $120-130. Ideally the $130 as I see the resistance at that level. May have to go to May to get the better price.

Edit: cancelled before this last run. Bid - ask spreads are just stupid right now.

 

[solarion]

Looks like GME is in a healthy pullback(-9%)...perhaps now is your chance to get out of this with less damage?

I just stacked moar FSM calls. 4xJune'22 strike 4 calls @ 0.40 each. The market doesn't like their earnings much, though revenue growth was very nice. They're experiencing declining ore grades and higher operating costs at two mines...but are working to bring another more promising mine up to full capacity to compensate. I believe we'll see a lot of this in the space for awhile...with higher than expected cost of revenue.

Miners are not immune to price inflation short term, they're just set up to excel in a high inflationary environment as they're mining money from the Earth.

 

[Voodoo]

Looks like GME is in a healthy pullback(-9%)...perhaps now is your chance to get out of this with less damage?

I just stacked moar FSM calls. 4xJune'22 strike 4 calls @ 0.40 each. The market doesn't like their earnings much, though revenue growth was very nice. They're experiencing declining ore grades and higher operating costs at two mines...but are working to bring another more promising mine up to full capacity to compensate. I believe we'll see a lot of this in the space for awhile...with higher than expected cost of revenue.

Miners are not immune to price inflation short term, they're just set up to excel in a high inflationary environment as they're mining money from the Earth.

Yeah, so I thought. Had an order in but they cancelled it because I got assigned.

I'm going to redeploy into other meme stocks and miners.

Might buy back into another GME deep ITM call if if goes down some more. Will definitely buy some BBBY. The fact is that my account was swinging far too much on this one stock alone which means it was too big of a position for the size of my account anyway. Just wish I had done a $120 or $140 range.

Or maybe.... a better idea is to use all that cash now and sell some Puts due to it's still crazy high Volatility... Yeah, I like this idea.

 

[solarion]

Ugh...sorry. That sucks.

 

[Goldbrix]

I'll take a look, though I'm fascinated and a bit surprised that people want to play this stuff with PM miners so ridiculously cheap and so obviously about to soar. It smacks of gambling against house odds rather than investing. lol

Dozens of commodity producers with dirt cheap valuations at a time when high inflation is so obviously going higher. It seems clear where capital should be flowing.

And the right one pay rent while you hold usually QU but some Canadian Trusts MO.

 

[Voodoo]

Ugh...sorry. That sucks.

Shit happens, that is the risk you take especially with a volatile stock like GME. It may turn into a good thing for me though. Already bought 100 shares BBBY to replace them (probably better % upside than GME now anyway). Tried to sell another put on BBBY. Puts on GME just take too damn much cash for me to sell.

Need me some calls on miners and possibly some Uranium. Some short Treasury bonds. Some Food. Shorting more RCL, etc.

Is anything happening on the Russian stocks with the reopening? I see Polymetal is having a good day.

Found this... nice for Russians I guess.

‘This is not a real market.’ How Russian stocks surged in first trading after crippling economic sanctions

Russian stocks surged upon their reopening for the first time in a month, demonstrating the impact of new restrictions that effectively isolate international investors from participating in setting prices.

www.marketwatch.com

The valuations are incredibly different than assigned in the West. Lukoil’s local shares were roughly 100 times the value of Lukoil’s London-listed shares, which last traded on March 4, and Gazprom’s were ten times as high.

I don't understand the foreigners not being allowed to sell. Because if they can't sell then they will not buy...

 

[solarion]

Right...I posted about it this morning in the lunatic thread after looking up Lukoy shares traded today.

They want us to believe this stuff is worthless...but it's far from. Incredible values over there for these Russian producers.

Stacked more FSM with the lunchtime smackdown. This time it's 6xJune 5 strike calls for 0.24 apiece.

 

[Voodoo]

The FSM chart looks pretty weak compared to most miners... I'll have to take a look.

Got a bunch of bids in for longer term options on mines. Mostly around 0.7 deltas. Are you always running a trailing stop or just keeping them in mind?

 

[solarion]

The FSM chart looks pretty weak compared to most miners... I'll have to take a look.

Yep, that's the idea. In late April of 2021 Fortuna SILVER mines announced a merger/acquisition of Roxgold in Canada. The market HATED the idea and hasn't really stopped puking on the shares since. Though if you go over the numbers, there's a case to be made for management having paid a bit too much for Roxgold's assets, but the thing has drifted from 8 all the way down to 3 since the announcement...all while revenue has been strong. Much of it is merely due to the premium assigned to pure silver miners being withdrawn. I'll take the cheap GEOs thanks. The shares trade at 0.9 price to book...which is absurd.

Insiders have been buying all the way down from 6.36 a share down to 3.26 since.

Are you always running a trailing stop or just keeping them in mind?

I run trailing stops to take profits only. I do not like stops otherwise and rarely use them. Usually when I want to play with house money(which is always), I will liquidate 50% of a position when it's up 50% or more to protect profits, and then slap a 1% trailing stop on the remaining position in case I'm leaving some profits on the table. I don't like doing that, but I really dislike turning a gain into a loss...I find this method to be effective at mitigating both.

 

[Voodoo]

Yeah, I just looked over the FSM results and they don't look bad at all. They produce a LOT of Silver but as expected it's pretty high cost. They still make money though. The market may have been a little disappointed in the lower Net Income even with that new mine/revenue. They also lost like $4.2 million on hedging it appears, not real exciting, but seems reasonable considering the environment we've been in.

Just did some leveraging in my wife's account Sold 100 PSLV and picked up 6 FSM $4 calls. half for Sep and half Jan 23's. Also bid on some EXK similar options. Her account was too light on miners.

 

[solarion]

Yeah their ore grades have been declining at San Jose and Lindero for a while and they've been trying to cover for it with a new mine coming online at Seguela and with increased output from Yaramoko. There's nothing fundamentally wrong here imo, it's just a bit of uncertainty as they transition from largely played out assets to new mostly unknown ones. Without the acquisition of Roxgold they'd have rightly fallen off a cliff in GEOs.

Like many producers, they need higher silver spot prices. The paper price is way too low.

 

[Voodoo]

Yeah their ore grades have been declining at San Jose and Lindero for a while and they've been trying to cover for it with a new mine coming online at Seguela and with increased output from Yaramoko. There's nothing fundamentally wrong here imo, it's just a bit of uncertainty as they transition from largely played out assets to new mostly unknown ones. Without the acquisition of Roxgold they'd have rightly fallen off a cliff in GEOs.

View attachment 251819

Like many producers, they need higher silver spot prices. The paper price is way too low.

Of course, which is why all I really looked at was how much silver they are actually producing. Double that price and they print money. More than that and we see pictures of a moon. As they say, the cure for low prices is low prices.

 

[solarion]

Well silver is acting pretty muscular today...hopefully it's the beginning of a trend. It has A LOT of ground to make up. The overnight low was 24.85 and now it's 25.62 so that's a nice start.

Rolled LAC 2024 leaps from a strike of 32.5 to 35 for a credit of .85 per contract. Damn thing has to slow down at some point. lol

 

[solarion]

Stupid algorithmic trading is stupid. Apparently Stockwatch translated FSM's $51m gain into a $59m loss and printed that headline this morning before correcting it in early trading today.

Here's a conversation between Marcus, Kranzler, and Ganoza(CEO) discussing this issue as well as several others. Needless to say I feel a bunch better about stacking a dozen June calls to go with my leaps on unjustifiable weakness today.

3.3 million ounces of gold and 26 million ounces of silver in reserve according to the man himself.

 

[Voodoo]

It is really confusing sometimes. I mean here is the press release and they have at least three different Net Income numbers.

Fortuna Reports Results for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021

(All amounts expressed in US dollars, tabular amounts in millions, unless otherwise stated)VANCOUVER, British Columbia, March 23, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (NYSE: FSM) (TSX: FVI) (“Fortuna” or the “Company”) today reported its consolidated financial and operating results...

finance.yahoo.com

Net income of $16.6 million or $0.05 per share

Adjusted net income1 of $29.1 million

Then these, which I see are full year numbers. So I have no idea where the +$51 million even comes from. They made 5 cents a shares this past quarter.

• Net income of $59.4 million, compared to $21.6 million in 2020
• Adjusted net income1 of $100.6 million,

 

[solarion]

Yeah, they throw all kinds of numbers around and some are more important than others, but still there's no negative there. Revenue was positive, earnings were positive, cash flow was positive, etc...no clue how stock watch could possibly have gotten a negative number out of any of it. When I looked I saw SA's article first early this morning showing Q4 EPS of $.05 per share and YoY revenue of $198.9m, which is respectable. Net cash from operations was listed as $57.1m and the only thing I found odd was the drop in FCF at $30.9m vs $34.5m in Q4 of 2020.

I was rather surprised when the market took all that to mean they should sell immediately...so I went in the opposite direction.

Here's an interesting and somewhat contentious exchange between two very smart SA contributors on the subject of FSM earnings.

 

[Jodster]

Interesting exchange. Kranzler admitted he bought around $3.90.
That’s the level it closed at yesterday.
I have stink bids in at $3.25, but I think it’s upwards from here.

 

[solarion]

Yeah, 3.87 was the daily low and it closed pretty close to that what with the late session takedown of paper metals. I was stacking calls pretty much throughout the day so currently I've 16 total, 12 of which I stacked yesterday. From a technical standpoint, the shares remain above a gently rising mid average and have been peeking up above a rapidly falling long term average, so failing yesterday's seemingly unwarranted selloff, one would have expected it to break above resistance very soon. Now that's probably further out, but there's also likely not much downside risk here...as a lot of sellers were likely washed out yesterday. Note the highest selling pressure in terms of volume since mid November.

Trailing PE is 18.7 with a price to book now around 0.8. Overall, I have the shares at roughly 46% below fair value and with significant upside potential going forward. Specifically Séguéla is right on schedule and 42% complete as per management yesterday. This mine, the company's fifth, is expected to begin production in mid 2023 and should rapidly become their greatest producing asset with expected AISC of roughly 1k/GEO. I like the thing and intend to hold it long term as I expect it to do well at these gold prices and to benefit significantly if/when gold and silver prices rise going forward.

Edit: It looks like Silvercrest exceeded their earnings estimate(a loss) by $0.03 per share, so I'd expect SILV to have a decent day.

Download SEDAR Filings - Code Verification and Accept Terms of Use

I've not gone over their filing in its entirety as yet, but I don't see any ugly "gotchas".

 

[solarion]

Bought 4x GATO May 5 strike calls and 4x FSM May strike 4 calls on weakness. The metals are going the wrong direction, but I don't see that continuing with bonds falling out of bed. Were there even a trace of logic in the markets...the broader markets would be getting crushed and commodity producers would be soaring.

 

[Voodoo]

It's going to take time to get rid of the old habits. But yea interest rates are getting hammered. My business is going to slow down as I am in Real Estate but that's fine.

I am off my game today. Tried to sell a Put on BBBY and bought it instead. GD cost me like $70 bucks. Trying to make up for my GME bad trading. I see resistance at $160 so I have another sell in for a April 29th like $220 covered call for over $11 bucks. If it hits I'm just going to roll that money into ITM BBBY or AMC calls.

 

[solarion]

You slay me with these meme stock plays. Meanwhile gold and silver were literally monkey hammered because bond yields spiked allegedly because some stupid dummy over at CITI apparently realized just today that price inflation exists and is a problem...uh DUH!

So now the metals will turn around and head higher, as they'd have done at market open if we didn't live in bizarro world with rigged fake markets. Repeat after me... "buy commodity producers". lol

GORO, SAND, OR, NSR, AUY, and EQX just turned positive. More to follow.

Bitcoin gains are rapidly dissolving with the melting nascrap.

 

[Voodoo]

You slay me with these meme stock plays. Meanwhile gold and silver were literally monkey hammered because bond yields spiked allegedly because some stupid dummy over at CITI apparently realized just today that price inflation exists and is a problem...uh DUH!

So now the metals will turn around and head higher, as they'd have done at market open if we didn't live in bizarro world with rigged fake markets. Repeat after me... "buy commodity producers". lol

GORO, SAND, OR, NSR, AUY, and EQX just turned positive. More to follow.

They are pretty much the ultimate negative Beta play here. Everything down today, 3 meme stocks up. Coincidence? I don't think so. Plus I'm just ratio trading these, kinda like you do with Pt, Au, and Ag. GME soars, sell a call and use that to buy more of the cheaper ones.

 

[Voodoo]

I can't seem to find it here but somewhere we were looking for more short plays. I think Real Estate is a great place for me to hedge and short as it also helps hedge my business a little. I am going to focus on one of the major players, Blackstone. Partly because of this more recent article and soaring interest rates.

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They look to be taking at least a $300 million loss here. Plus the stock has gone bonkers after changing from an MLP or something to a C-corp.

The stock is clearly showing weakness recently. I am probably a bit early but that is where I like to get started. Might look at some Leap Put options if not real expensive. Or do the selling the call spread to buy some puts.