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Palladium

Au-myn

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#1
Hello Friends,

Palladium has been on a great run since 2016 so I wanted to post a P & F chart for people investing in the PM and or
the stocks. The scale is $15/square, 3 square reversal. That scale works very well as the formations are clearly defined
and the trend channels work within this scale.

Should see Palladium stretch across the ascending trend channel as it digests January's explosive Double Top buy signal ($1215)
that followed an Ascending Triple Top formation buy signal.
 

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Au-myn

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#2
Palladium is cutting into the current bullish resistance line at the 1500 as it continues to power higher on the latest buy signal at 1410 on a #1 Double Top formation.
Pall 15x3.png
 

ttazzman

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#3
thx for the charting.....i am a fundamentals guy.........need to see the upper side of the chart IE where that top assending line is price wise :)
 
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savvydon

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thx for the charting.....i am a fundamentals guy.........need to see the upper side of the chart IE where that top assending line is price wise :)
Looks like somewhere near 2k. About what it would take to pry my hands loose from my shiny 2017 Palladium Eagle :)
 

Au-myn

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#5
Hey guys,
I whipped this up to get an estimate. Should be in the neighborhood of 1725+ as my lines are a bit large but, that's the best I could
come up with.
pall 1725.png
 

Au-myn

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#7
Another update after a #1 Double Top formation buy signal at 1545. The chart did pull-back today to 1530 and I will wait for the next pattern now forming to complete and update again.

Still moving up...

P1a.png
 

ttazzman

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Another update after a #1 Double Top formation buy signal at 1545. The chart did pull-back today to 1530 and I will wait for the next pattern now forming to complete and update again.

Still moving up...

View attachment 126790
Thank you....looks like to me even a pull back to the 1240 range would still be in the up trend channel?
 

Voodoo

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#9
Anyone have more thoughts on Palladium. I've been thinking about it and come back over here. Looks like we are nearing all time highs but I feel like the rally is getting long in the tooth. Considering selling my little bit of Palladium and converting to some Platnium and cashing out some profits. There is not a lot of difference between the two metals and I don't see a lot of justification for such a large premium to Palladium. Bought a little of the physical back when it was $400 or 500 an ounce.
 

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#10
Anyone have more thoughts on Palladium. I've been thinking about it and come back over here. Looks like we are nearing all time highs but I feel like the rally is getting long in the tooth. Considering selling my little bit of Palladium and converting to some Platnium and cashing out some profits. There is not a lot of difference between the two metals and I don't see a lot of justification for such a large premium to Palladium. Bought a little of the physical back when it was $400 or 500 an ounce.
Grab some of those premiums, for sure. Although Platinum is cheaperer, I don't think it's a good investment, yet.

Could give ya more insight if you buy my news letter.
 

ttazzman

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#11
i haven't seen a industrial usage trend conversion yet back to platinum........while the "rally" seems long in the tooth ...and a big part of me really want to convert the PL at 1 to 2 PTs .... this trend is based in supply issues as much as demand and that also hasnt significantly reversed..... i am glad i have a small holding...demand could also drop if fossil fuel new car/truck sales start to decline in favor of electrics...i would note it seems to me that both metals seem to have established themsleves at these levels

not sure exactly what premium your talking about specificly.....but coin purchase premium is driven by the replacement costs of inventory high premium means when they sell you a coin it is difficult for them to replace it ......if your calling the metal trading spread a premium it is just a fact of the market and lack of trade volume
 
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Voodoo

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#12
I was just referring to the premium that Palladium is commanding as compared to Platinum right now. They are very similar metals and can be used almost interchangeable in things like cat converters. In fact, I think that Platinum is superior in most applications. This was the longest term chart I could find. It looks like there was a similar but brief period in 2000/2001 with this similar situation. That saw Palladium down 55% over the next 7 years while Platinum was up 255%. I think I've convinced myself to swap. https://www.kitco.com/charts/interactive-charts/

amCharts.jpg
 

ttazzman

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#13
I was just referring to the premium that Palladium is commanding as compared to Platinum right now. They are very similar metals and can be used almost interchangeable in things like cat converters. In fact, I think that Platinum is superior in most applications. This was the longest term chart I could find. It looks like there was a similar but brief period in 2000/2001 with this similar situation. That saw Palladium down 55% over the next 7 years while Platinum was up 255%. I think I've convinced myself to swap. https://www.kitco.com/charts/interactive-charts/

View attachment 147349
At 2 to 1 I'd dont see you getting hurt doing a swap and taking some $ off the table....but i dont see this rally as being "long in the tooth" but what do i know i am out of the stock market right now LOL
 
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Au-myn

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#14
Been a while since I up dated this chart.

Currently, PALL is residing in the middle of its ascending trend channel. The High Pole warning that has occurred in a Bull market indicated near-term weakness and a possible correction.

Pall2.png
 

ttazzman

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I was just referring to the premium that Palladium is commanding as compared to Platinum right now. They are very similar metals and can be used almost interchangeable in things like cat converters. In fact, I think that Platinum is superior in most applications. This was the longest term chart I could find. It looks like there was a similar but brief period in 2000/2001 with this similar situation. That saw Palladium down 55% over the next 7 years while Platinum was up 255%. I think I've convinced myself to swap. https://www.kitco.com/charts/interactive-charts/

View attachment 147349
looks like its continuing its upward trend .........
 

Voodoo

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#17
Looking good but next time I head to the city and Coin shop I'm going to swap the Palladium for some Platinum and maybe some other goodies.:2 thumbs up::mining:
 

ttazzman

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#18
Looking good but next time I head to the city and Coin shop I'm going to swap the Palladium for some Platinum and maybe some other goodies.:2 thumbs up::mining:
looks like you can catch a short term high here.....great time to get out if that is your mindset...sure beats trying to catch it as it slides
 

ttazzman

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#19
Looking good but next time I head to the city and Coin shop I'm going to swap the Palladium for some Platinum and maybe some other goodies.:2 thumbs up::mining:
looks like today would have been a good day for that sir......
 

Voodoo

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#20
They are both going up. It's a little tough as the shop I know would buy is 1.5 hours away. Not so bad because in my waiting its gone up $300. :thumbs up 2:
 

ttazzman

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#21
They are both going up. It's a little tough as the shop I know would buy is 1.5 hours away. Not so bad because in my waiting its gone up $300. :thumbs up 2:
very true....but if your trading as long as the ratio stays the same all is good....ratio took a negative turn for you/me today....... this is a good chart to keep a eye on for the trade your thinking about.... not pushing advice but i am watching this myself closely

https://www.denvergold.org/precious-metal-prices-charts/platinum-to-palladium-ratio/
 

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#22
Being that this is physical if I get anywhere near the top in the ratio I will consider that a great trade and move on.
 

Voodoo

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#25
Had a strong rally today what, $45 and another $17 so far tonight while Pt is down. Heading to the shop in two weeks. Probably be a little late but still by far my best performer. Had a bit of anxiety today as, let's say, having some trouble recovering the treasure from the bottom of the pond.
 

ttazzman

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Had a strong rally today what, $45 and another $17 so far tonight while Pt is down. Heading to the shop in two weeks. Probably be a little late but still by far my best performer. Had a bit of anxiety today as, let's say, having some trouble recovering the treasure from the bottom of the pond.
i have had those anxieties myself........sometimes i forget exact locations of what .... senior moments ....really thinking of letting some go myself at these levels.....looks like a exceptional time for a swap.....be nice to hit a home run once in a while but a triple so far isnt bad :)
 
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Au-myn

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#27
Here is a 3 x 25 scale P & F chart. This gives us a longer term look verses the 15 point/square prior charts.

Ripped through the bullish resistance line that has been in effect since late 2011.

Now we open up the ascending channel from the large wall of O's in 2001. Current bullish resistance is 2175.

P3.png
 

ttazzman

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#28
currently this latest rush is fueled by supply issues in south africa the 2nd largest producer of Pd .....on top of strong demand and anticipated shortages .....the weaker move up in Pt is also fueled by supply concerns but the supply/demand matrix is much weaker for for Pt overall and there are no shortage issues forecasted currently
 

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#29
Yep, a little too late. Still will follow through unless this crashes quickly.

1576860742603.png
 

ttazzman

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will be intresting to see who brought some product to market to sell........possibly the russians....possibly shorters.....possibly South Africa got back to producing..... kinda feels like a friday shorter pre-holiday week raid but we will see
 

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#31
Well it had a decent bounce back and made the sale today. Got a pretty good price but picked up 2 0.5 oz. Pt Amercan Eagles and a check to further ponder. Would have preferred a 1 oz coin but didn't have any. Looks like I wasnt the only one
They had another bar and some Pd coins. Very little platinum. Not sure how a LCD would hedge the price risk.
 

ttazzman

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#32
Well it had a decent bounce back and made the sale today. Got a pretty good price but picked up 2 0.5 oz. Pt Amercan Eagles and a check to further ponder. Would have preferred a 1 oz coin but didn't have any. Looks like I wasnt the only one
They had another bar and some Pd coins. Very little platinum. Not sure how a LCD would hedge the price risk.
you did well sir....its never the wrong time to take profits.... if you dont mind me asking how much off of spot did they take off on PD ....i rarely can deal with my LCDs i think last time i checked they were $100 off spot on PD which isnt to bad i dont mind giving up 5% ....online dealers do much better but its a pain...
 

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#33
It was hard to tell exactly as the price went up during the day. As best as I can tell it was about $50. Still pretty good considering that was the price before that big downdraft on the chart I posted. Looks like I bought the Eagles at about the same price as APMEX. So I've always had pretty good luck with this store.

Although perhaps one of the experts can help me out. One of the coins had a more attractive polished finish but not like a proof coin as it was the high relief that was polished (like the eagle on the back or the crown). The others were an all matte finish so I took one of those as well.
 

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#34
Wanted to possibly buy some Mexican Libertads (metal not important but likely silver). They didn't have any though.
 

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#37
I own a couple maples I bought for around 500 apiece, wondering if you guys think I should sell/swap for gold. I don't need the money but am worried about palladium in an economic downturn.
 

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#38
I own a couple maples I bought for around 500 apiece, wondering if you guys think I should sell/swap for gold. I don't need the money but am worried about palladium in an economic downturn.
I might consider swapping one for gold and the other for a couple ounces of Platinum.
 

ttazzman

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#39
I own a couple maples I bought for around 500 apiece, wondering if you guys think I should sell/swap for gold. I don't need the money but am worried about palladium in an economic downturn.
I own several...who knows where its going....but based on the past it seems the current market would be good to sell into.....its never wrong to take profits...reinvestment is a separate issue....palladium is certainly tied to the auto industry...and would be a hard sell in a declining market