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Palladium

Voodoo

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#41
Double Top buy signal at 1980. Up up up we go.....

View attachment 151004
I'm going to need to brush up on my P & F charts. Is this only on a close? Palladium certainly looks like it is in a parabolic top. Interesting comparison, very same chart but first on linear scale and then the log scale second. This could get really interesting if it breaks above that long-term log-scale channel. That would truly be parabolic.

1578423733808.png

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And Rhodium is really going nuts but you can't even find that in investment form.
 

ttazzman

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#42
I tend to look at the 200dma ....and it is starting to show parabolic signs
 

Au-myn

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#46
Resistance coming at 2160 on this 3 x 30 scale P & F.
But, I had to pencil in the next bullish resistance line. U just never know how far it will go...

p2.png
 

Voodoo

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#47
Well, as we suspected but this thing is in true bubble mode. Broke out above that trend line on the Log Scale. Up another $50 bucks today and $200-250 in what 2 weeks? Interesting though that Platinum is outperforming up over 3% today. I wonder if Russia has had enough and are not selling ANY PGM's, likely to hurt potential weapon production in the US.
 

ttazzman

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#48
Well, as we suspected but this thing is in true bubble mode. Broke out above that trend line on the Log Scale. Up another $50 bucks today and $200-250 in what 2 weeks? Interesting though that Platinum is outperforming up over 3% today. I wonder if Russia has had enough and are not selling ANY PGM's, likely to hurt potential weapon production in the US.
knowing what russia will release is a real crap shoot even for those in the know.........but South Africa is having ongoing problems producing and that is mainly driving this run.......if Russia withdraws or cuts off supply i think were talking 10k .........basicly its a supply issue and no KNOWN stockpiles...all my opinion of course......the flip side is Russia could up production and tank the market ....sure is good to see PT break above 1k ...
 
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Voodoo

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#49
Regardless of the cause the effects on price are what we can see. Clearly someone is A.) panicking to buy Palladium and Rhodium to use in a product and/or B.) panicking to Buy these metals for fear of missing big profits. In the short run I see big downside after most price bubbles.

However, it would also make sense that we are starting to see real supply problems of any commodity. These metals are EXTREMELY RARE. More rare than any other commodity of which I can think. So maybe we are seeing a point where its just very difficult to find more supplies. Not probable but they would like be some of the first commodities that we have that "run out". Until we pull in an asteroid or two of course but that is probably decades away.
 
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Voodoo

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#50
I was able to find this chart but I'll have to keep looking for the Pd natural occurrence.

https://articles.royalmintbullion.com/how-rare-are-precious-metals/

Gold 4 parts per billion
Silver 75 parts per billion
Platinum 5 parts per billion
Osmium 1.5 parts per billion
Other Platinum group metals 1 part per billion or less

(apparently this source is the CRC which says 15 parts per billion for Palladium) but two other sources say either half as abundant as gold or twice as abundant)

1579124572401.png
 

plata_oro

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#51
I might consider swapping one for gold and the other for a couple ounces of Platinum.
Totally concur IMO, especially the part about platinum. I own 3 1/2 ounces of platinum eagles (due to state tax laws) all purchased in 2018 & 2019 as it was undervalued relative to gold. Nothing wrong with profit taking and down forget the world's most undervalued monetary metal silver if you have the space to store it! RCM 100's are fun to hold, low premium and issued by a sovereign mint.
 

Voodoo

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#53
Think we are finding the top in here. Some weird flash crashes today. Over $200 at one point. up $100 to down $100 in the same day.

1579189921499.png
 

Voodoo

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#55
Or not. Geez. Tested ~$2450 today up $200. Oh well,l just left a few hundred on the table but selling the day of a top is nearly impossible. This is most certainly a bubble and going nearly vertical.

Time to go recycle a few cat converters.
 

hernancortes

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#56
Depending on which ticker you're using, I'm seeing it trade at 2526 this moment. The US is selling a PD coin that gets repriced weekly and at this rate it cannot keep up.
 

Voodoo

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#57
Clearly this is a very thin market and the spread alone is $100. Hard to even pin down a price at these levels. I find it very interesting that this might be peaking with the ECM change today/tomorrow.
 

savvydon

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#58
Depending on which ticker you're using, I'm seeing it trade at 2526 this moment. The US is selling a PD coin that gets repriced weekly and at this rate it cannot keep up.
Wild riding indeed. The US Mint's price is currently between bid and ask. If this thing runs a bid before Wednesday and the Mint asking price comes in under bid it is worth considering purchasing.
 

ttazzman

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#59
LOL....looks like the same guys who put in a sell order yesterday...put in a buy order today (unlike silver they might have realized they might actually have to deliver).......sure looks like a very thin market....and we know supply and delivery on supply is a issue.....i wish there was more information about what is specificly happening out there...us normal people of course are the last to know.....:popcorn:.....if someone sees current info post a link i havent had much luck....intresting that it peaked about Au-myn's next resistance line
 
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hernancortes

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#61
Wild riding indeed. The US Mint's price is currently between bid and ask. If this thing runs a bid before Wednesday and the Mint asking price comes in under bid it is worth considering purchasing.
It's also well to remember that you can always return the coin (within a week) if the price tanks.
 

hernancortes

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#62
All sorts of anecdotes out there that phys Pd is scarce in the real world.
My state coin show hasn't had an ounce of PD in years -other than the new semi-numi Pd Eagle
No more than 700,000 Pd coins minted worldwide to-date.
In the '08 crash, Pd was by far the hardest PM to obtain, with by far the highest premiums.
 
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Voodoo

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#63
A couple tidbits in the Reuters article... I had not seen the new standards for China

On the demand side, emissions standards coming into force in number one car market China require 30% more palladium per vehicle, more than offsetting recent falls in numbers of vehicles sold, said Standard Chartered's Cooper.

"To me it looks like a bubble," said Fritsch, predicting prices would return to around $1,500 by the end of the year.
 

Voodoo

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#65
What's gonna happen when the same is said for Au??
That's never going to happen. Gold is mostly stored not consumed. I'm not saying that it can't go up and be a bubble but the supply is also around.
 

Joe King

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#66
In the '08 crash, Pd was by far the hardest PM to obtain, with by far the highest premiums.
Back around that time I was in a jewelry store with a friend and noticed they had some some Pm's. Standard stuff, but they also had a couple one ounce Palladiam bars. I wanna say that spot was somewhere South of $200, but they were asking well over $300 each. Almost double spot. It's the only time I've ever even seen Palladiam being sold retail and still kick myself in the butt for not having bought one.
I just couldn't get past the nearly 100% premium.
 

ttazzman

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#68
Back around that time I was in a jewelry store with a friend and noticed they had some some Pm's. Standard stuff, but they also had a couple one ounce Palladiam bars. I wanna say that spot was somewhere South of $200, but they were asking well over $300 each. Almost double spot. It's the only time I've ever even seen Palladiam being sold retail and still kick myself in the butt for not having bought one.
I just couldn't get past the nearly 100% premium.
If i had a nickle for every time i wanted to kick myself in the butt....i would be a wealthy person......LOL...........it happens :rage 1

Heck the only reason i picked up some back when it was cheap was just because i was Bored with Au and Ag ........so i thought why not pickup some PT and PD purely as a distraction ...dumb ass luck is a good thing :dancing guy
 

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#69
I went looking for some when it was 450ish but nobody had none.....
 

plata_oro

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#72
I have never seen any at a coin shop or coin show......extremely rare here to see platinum
I mistakenly bought a half ounce random year platinum eagle last year. I miscalculated the premium. Provident sent me a 1999 and the finish is quite spectacular compared to 2018 & 2019 full ounce. I'm glad I have it now. It reminds me of the enhanced ASE from a few years ago. I don't know if there was a design change of what but it's more brilliant than the recent years. I will dig out of safe and post if a platinum thread.

Palladium is not done yet. It takes years to change catalytic converters from platinum to palladium and vica versa. But when they do platinum will pop off even higher as South Africa controls even more of the supply than palladium. They ain't to happy with whitey and the sh!t working conditions will likely trigger a shortage in the future.
 

plata_oro

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#73
That's never going to happen. Gold is mostly stored not consumed. I'm not saying that it can't go up and be a bubble but the supply is also around.
Nope but silver is and if there is ever a monetary need for it, silver will go bonkers. It is 43 times more abundant in the earth's crust than gold but most silver consumed does not get recycled. The people in the east may be shifting from gold to silver for wealth preservation as it's dirt cheap relative to the all the other PM's.

This silver bug is definitely cheering on the palladium bull!
 

BigJim#1-8

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#74
That's never going to happen. Gold is mostly stored not consumed. I'm not saying that it can't go up and be a bubble but the supply is also around.
Why not? Everyone has been saying for years that when people insist on delivery from comex TSWHTF because there's not enough physical metal to cover the paper.
 

Voodoo

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#75
Why not? Everyone has been saying for years that when people insist on delivery from comex TSWHTF because there's not enough physical metal to cover the paper.
Because I've come to see those people are mostly full of shite. Yes, the physical market gets leveraged with paper contracts but so does every market on earth. And leverage can certainly get out of hand at times. Gold gets stored as a safe haven for those rare events where everything paper starts to evaporate. And it is that storage that is just sitting around and never really gets smaller, ie the total inventory is always increasing.
 

plata_oro

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#76
Why not? Everyone has been saying for years that when people insist on delivery from comex TSWHTF because there's not enough physical metal to cover the paper.
Yeah man and central banks are insisting on physical delivery from the BOE and FEDERAL RESERVE. Investors will do the same from the comex when their FRN's significantly loose purchasing power.

I think there's more going on with Palladium, yes it's scarce but the BRICS control 80% of mined supply so they have the western bankers by the balls when they over short the market. I bet you anything when the price is right they (the BRICS producers) will budge and then use the over bidded FRN's to purchase gold. Remember, the world is not dependent upon the FRN any longer for banking reserves. The US can't afford multiple conflicts without the deficit rising to levels foreign currency market would accept.

If you were a palladium or platinum producing country and are seeing what is taking place with these overnight repurchase agreements, would you have your people work long shifts in very difficult conditions in return for bullsh!t paper money?
 

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#77
plata,

that is one of the things I wonder about,
how much supply has been mothballed, keeping physical off the market by producers?

those brics do not have quarterly reports, nor do they have to continue feeding shareholders a line of bs,
they can do many things which the market would never know of.
sure they can speculate the condition of the market, and what is in reserve, but do they really 'know'?
 

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#78
As of 3:45PM, New York time, today, Palladium hit above $2,401.

Can anyone with more expertise in the subject care to provide a little insight for the curious layman?
 

ttazzman

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#79
As of 3:45PM, New York time, today, Palladium hit above $2,401.

Can anyone with more expertise in the subject care to provide a little insight for the curious layman?
pretty simple fundamentals...... Palladium is primary catalist used in gasoline fueled engine catalytic converters (demand).......... Russia and South Africa control the (supply) market........ for several years now demand has exceeded supply and known stockpiles are used up or are minimal.... Russia supply is political and eratic....South Africa is having all kinds of infrastructure problems producing PD.......Demand is going up.....already Inadequate supply is having issues.......... Catalytic converters can be redesigned to use platinum but that takes time ..effort ...and re-certification.....

when a buyer comes to market they expect metal to be delivered so there are little to no speculators driving the market ....

thats the market in a snapshot.......big moves like today are common...it only takes a big buy order...or supply news snippits....

Edit to add.......the other major supply chain "recycling" has not stepped up to fill supply gaps also
 

Voodoo

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#80
Most other commodities are signaling deflation. Palladium seems to be following Tesla in some sort of liquidity trap and soar. Yes, South Africa is a mess and getting worse. Not sure that's where I want to try and make a buck but good luck to ya.