• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

Palladium

Strawboss

Apocaloptimist
Site Mgr
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
8,614
Likes
17,296
#81
I would imagine that any palladium from recycling is being fed into the market as fast as it can be recovered....
I can see Russia throttling supply to gain an economic advantage. If any of us had a supply of X and we knew our reserves were limited...but the demand for X was strong and growing - it would only make sense to limit supply and force prices to continually rise.

Anyone know how long it takes to convert from palladium to platinum for catalytic converter manufacturers?

It would make sense that platinum is going to be used instead as quickly as they can make the conversions...probably already working on it.
 

Voodoo

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
2,207
Likes
2,936
Location
Deep Underground Bunker
#82
There are no cars being made now with China shut down. Who cares about supply, they don't need any right now.

As with many other changes for these parts it probably depends on how much red tape it takes. If you have people like the EPA and California regulators wanting your data on the efficiency of the catalyst then it could take a long time.
 

ttazzman

Midas Member
Midas Member
Midas Supporter
Joined
Apr 2, 2010
Messages
6,232
Likes
7,254
Location
mid-usa
#83
There are no cars being made now with China shut down. Who cares about supply, they don't need any right now.

As with many other changes for these parts it probably depends on how much red tape it takes. If you have people like the EPA and California regulators wanting your data on the efficiency of the catalyst then it could take a long time.
Yep....China is the thing to watch now...
 

ttazzman

Midas Member
Midas Member
Midas Supporter
Joined
Apr 2, 2010
Messages
6,232
Likes
7,254
Location
mid-usa
#84
Nothing really new here just reaffirmation of market status with current opinions


https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-02-...-at-new-record-highs-on-deficit-concerns.html

Kitco News) The precious metals sector is rallying across the board, but palladium’s surge is blowing gold, silver, and platinum out of the water.


March palladium futures were up nearly 8.1% on the day, last trading at $2,504.70 an ounce as the supply-demand outlook continued to boost prices to new highs. Spot prices hit record highs of 2,590 an ounce earlier in the session.


Palladium’s record levels continue to surprise many analysts, surpassing most price projections last year and ignoring 2020’s calls for a price correction.




“At the start of the year, we were looking for upside risk for the palladium market, but prices have rallied further than we thought they would. Given how tight the market is, it is likely that we are going to continue to see further upside risk,” Standard Chartered precious metals analyst Suki Cooper told Kitco News on Tuesday.


Prices are likely to continue to climb with any price dips looking to be short-lived, Cooper added.


The critical factor to watch going forward, especially with the coronavirus economic fallout on everyone’s mind, is whether there is a slowdown in auto production-led palladium buying, the analyst noted. The precious metal is widely used in catalytic converters by the car industry.


“Palladium rally has been led by industrial demand rather than investment demand,” Cooper pointed out.


The supply-demand fundamentals still point to a supply deficit this year. “Even though there are concerns that factories have been closed and there is a drop in auto production, it still doesn’t look like the potential decline of palladium demand will be enough to swing the market deficit. The market is still likely to be undersupplied for this year,” she said.


Johnson Matthey's report released last week also underscored that the palladium deficit is likely to widen in 2020.


“The palladium market deficit widened to over 1 million ounces in 2019, as combined primary and secondary supplies grew only modestly, while auto-catalyst demand surged higher on the back of new [emissions] legislation in China and more stringent testing regimes in Europe,” Johnson Matthey said. “The palladium deficit is likely to deepen in 2020, as an increasing number of Chinese and European vehicles meet China 6 and Euro 6d legislation, respectively.”


This will lead to even higher prices in 2020, following a 72% rise in the last 12 months.


A lot depends on how the auto industry does this year, noted ING head of commodity strategy Warren Patterson and the bank’s senior commodity strategist Wenyu Yao.


“[Widening deficit] will depend on how the auto industry performs this year, and at the moment, it is not looking that constructive. Last week China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) estimated that car sales could drop by more than 30% MoM in February, after posting its biggest decline of 22% MoM in January,” the analysts wrote on Tuesday.


Some analysts are still projecting a move lower in palladium. Commerzbank head of commodity research Eugen Weinberg said he expects a correction soon.


“[Higher prices] can be only partly explained by the ongoing production problems in South Africa due to power supply disruptions and this year’s renewed high supply deficit,” Weinberg said. “As we see it, the fact that market participants are focusing on the problems on the supply side means that they are ignoring the risks to demand, which are at least equally as important.”


It all comes down to car output for 2020, he added. “Increased risk aversion on the financial markets, a strong U.S. dollar and significantly lower new-car registration figures in China and Europa point to a price correction,” Weinberg said.


On the supply side, things are not looking to improve significantly until 2023, Cooper said.


“We did an analysis looking at supply outlook was in South Africa. In the near term, it doesn’t look like there is much room for growth opportunities in terms of palladium output. Many of the projects are more likely to yield increase in output around 2023,” she said.


In Russia, which is the world’s largest producer, the situation is similar. “We are looking at a timeframe of at least three years,” Cooper noted. “It is more likely that we are going to see output stabilizing at best but more likely declining this year.”
 

Au-myn

GOLDBUG
Founding Member
Site Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Jul 2, 2010
Messages
940
Likes
1,669
Location
California
#85
The latest buy signal rocketing Palladium to new heights is a Formations in Combination - a Triple Top and Bullish Signal combined. The buy signal occurred at 2430. This up move took out another long term bullish resistance line at 2670. Current resistance is at 2820.

Hey, 3K is just around the corner...tick..tick..tick...

p.png
 

Voodoo

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
2,207
Likes
2,936
Location
Deep Underground Bunker
#87
Finally seeing some breakdown in these bubblicious areas like Palladium. Went a little longer and higher than expected (although that always occurs) but now below my sale price. Down $255 today so far.
 

oldgaranddad

Platinum Bling
Platinum Bling
Midas Supporter ++
Joined
Feb 21, 2012
Messages
5,723
Likes
10,796
Location
On the top shelf.
#88
Finally seeing some breakdown in these bubblicious areas like Palladium. Went a little longer and higher than expected (although that always occurs) but now below my sale price. Down $255 today so far.
Then again, almost anything worth a buck that is not nailed down is being sold to cover margin calls. We'll have to wait for the dust to settle on this latest calamity to see if Pd restarts its trudge northward in price.