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Picking a bottom vs. trending

dpong

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#1
I have recently been learning about trading vs. investing. As a long-time lurker/member of GIM, I have been tied especially to gold, silver, and precious metals in particular. Have always traded from a particular point of view, of what is right and wrong, of what is "REAL" value.

In a down market we are always trying to understand what is the current state of affairs. Is THIS the bottom for gold? Is THIS the absolute bottom for silver? What I am realizing is that is like a bunch of old men standing around pointing to a hole in the ground saying "THAT's the bottom", and then the next guy goes "NO, THAT's the bottom." Meanwhile the thing they are pointing at is not moving at all, at least not much. For me, speaking for myself, it is very easy to get caught up in a game where you think maybe you can pick the bottom better than the next guy. It becomes a competition or at the very least it takes up too much of your time, your thinking, your 'brain space'. That other guy missed the bottom by $5, but I NAILED the bottom. The same thing could be said for tops. "I'm the absolute best TOP picker! I beat that guy by 10 points. Why look I nailed it back in January." BUT, while a bottom may or may not be forming, there is no MOVEMENT at all. It is like a dead possum. We can guess if he is really dead or not, but he damn sure ain't moving. To make money, there must be movement.

I am realizing that for making money, that is all a bunch of BULL****!

If you wish to win EGO points it is a lofty field. Many EGO points can be gained in the tit for tat.

If INSTEAD you wish to make money trading, I have recently begun to understand what many wise traders have told me many times in the past. Find something that is trending and get in the trend. Abandon your 'pull' to a particular sector.

Here are two examples, where while we were all standing around pointing at the ground, real money was to be made. I didn't make this money, and most likely neither did you.

Here is the play. We should have gotten in this trend, and kept pulling up our stop orders as the trends went higher. Once stopped out, we should have bought anytime the price went anywhere near the green clouds. That's it. I didn't do it. You didn't do it. But given the money printing that has occurred, we should have. If the goal is to make money, for your family, etc. or whatever, then finding the trend and getting in it should have been our top priority. Not a stand on principle. Not on 'knowing' that the trend was fake, etc. The best thing I could have done for my wife and family would have been to find these trends and participate.

Watching a bottom form is fun. Knowing when it has formed and is ready to run is useful. But being in a trend and staying in a trend is money-making.

This is my new understanding. Bouquets and/or Brickbats are encouraged.

[PS. Buying in the green cloud is not the actual trading technique. That I will explain below. It was rhetorical.]
 

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dpong

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#2
No, I'm not advocating buying these stocks now. I'm simply saying that whatever is going on at any given time, there are trends. Get in them. Anything else is splitting hairs. Splitting hairs is fun and entertaining. Being in a trend is making money. Silver and gold may be starting new trends. Or they may not be. But either way, why stand around pointing at the ground? We can go find the actual trend, use trailing stops, move them up with the trend, and make money. I need to do that, and likely so do you.
 

Silver Buck

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#3
Much wisdom here. It has cost me some opportunities trying to time a top, opportunities that are not coming back. Fortunately, I was smart enough to take some profits off of the table when Silver was on its way down. Unfortunately I didn't take as much as I should and then roll the money into something else (like my own business). Now I'm stuck with a bunch of the stuff and looking at a hole. At least I'm not upside down in my 'investment'.
 

917601

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#4
Fact is, since 07/08 all conventional " investment" strategies have been turned upside down. Intervention, manipulation, and theft has defeated age old financial wisdom. Those looking to make a lot of money will lose a lot of money, the winners after the upcoming " event" will be those that simply did not lose their money. Shemitah is absolution of debt, absolution of debt also means absolution of credit, ( as what happened the last Shemitah cycle), investment in any debt or credit instruments is a very bad move. So, just what does that leave?
 

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Goldhedge

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#5
I'm no expert investor, but I play one on the inet...


From what I garnered over the last 20 years... The market is rigged...so stay out!


When Hillary turned $1,000 into $100,000 in cattle futures without any experience...I figured it out...
 

dpong

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#6
Here's another tasty look at those trends we could have been in. They were delicious. Enough nostalgia. Let's go find trends we like and get in them.
 

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dpong

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#7
Now, in this thread I'm not just whining. I'm preparing to try and win. The awesome SAGI of the URANIUM & ALTERNATIVE ENERGY thread shared with me a very interesting TA system that I had not heard of. It is called Ichimoku clouds. SAGI shared with me this video. This gentleman, Rob Booker, is using a modified version of an Ichimoku trading system. I also recommend this second video from chaostrader where he takes you through the traditional Ichimoku system and explains all of the Ichimoku elements in detail. The second video is called Ichimoku Basics for Beginners and it is a little more complicated than the first one.

I haven't used the system much yet, but I intend to start. Why am I so taken with Ichimoku clouds? The reason I am very interested in this way of looking at TA is that the whole system is focused on TRENDING. It attempts to help you avoid stocks that are merely RANGING in favor of stocks that are TRENDING. This way of looking at trading says that we don't want to waste our time on things that are ranging. The TREND is your friend, the range is a good place to feed cattle.


 
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dpong

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#8
If you watch one or both of those videos you will have a much better idea of what I'm trying to do here than I could myself explain. SAGI showed me those videos. The rest of this is all me, and SAGI may or may not agree with what I'm showing here. I don't know.

Here's what I'm trying today. I went to stockcharts.com and ran a Predefined Scan on P&F Bearish Signal Reversal pattern. I figured if I'm trying to catch the early stages of a trend this is not a bad pattern. I then sorted the charts by volume. I'm looking for larger companies or at least stocks with relatively high volume.

Next I looked at each P&F chart and if I liked it - for example it is in its long term bullish channel, then I went and looked at it using a slow ICHI chart.

Here is one example. I don't know anything about this company yet, but it is in its LT bullish channel. It has moved closer to the bullish support line so it doesn't look like Wells Fargo currently does. And it has given a buy signal and broken it's intermediate downtrend line.

Looking at the ICHI chart, the On Balance Volume (OBV) has reversed from a downtrend into an uptrend. The slow MACD indicates a change from bearish to bullish trend. And the price is poised just below the red cloud.

From a technical standpoint, this looks like an excellent candidate to try this system on. As the Rob Booker video explains the trade works like this: Initiate the buy when the price first enters that red cloud from below. When the price exits the top of the cloud you pull up your stop loss to your break even point. At that point it becomes a 'risk-less' trade. Then you watch and hope the price continues to trend upwards as we are predicting. You continue to pull up your stop loss to whatever you are comfortable with and try to capture as much of the trend as you can.

See, this is the opposite of bottom calling and top calling. Being able to successfully call a top would certainly improve your odds using this system. But here really what we are trying to do is to capture the middle of the trend. We don't range at the bottom. We don't range at the top. We wish to capture the trend and then exit.

As stated, this particular stock is just an example. Will it work? I don't know. But I like the philosophy of the thing. Beats standing around pointing to a hole in the ground. Maybe.
 

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SAGI

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#9
Fact is, since 07/08 all conventional " investment" strategies have been turned upside down. Intervention, manipulation, and theft has defeated age old financial wisdom. Those looking to make a lot of money will lose a lot of money, the winners after the upcoming " event" will be those that simply did not lose their money. Shemitah is absolution of debt, absolution of debt also means absolution of credit, ( as what happened the last Shemitah cycle), investment in any debt or credit instruments is a very bad move. So, just what does that leave?
I understand; and.....how do we profit from this?
 

SAGI

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#10
Dear Dpong,

This is a good thread, it is time that we did have an independent thread as many of us are either not aware or are settled in with our own strategies. Perhaps many may work and this is a good place to write down and show various methodologies and in what circumstances they work. Congratulations!

SAGI
 

dpong

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#11
Here is another example, using the same methodology as above.

I have no idea what XON does. The P&F chart is on a Bearish Signal Reversed from June 2nd. This one seems less clear to me than the other one, primarily because XON is still technically in its Bearish Trend channel but it is currently challenging its Bearish Resistance line. Normally this area can give some resistance. In fact we do see signs of resistance on the ICHI candlestick chart around 26, but it appears possible that XON has overcome it.

In any case, this one is already in the cloud. It appears to have entered the cloud somewhere in the neighborhood of $25. Again, the trade would call for you to move your stops up to 'break-even' when XON price exits the cloud on the upside. (Should it manage to do so!) After that we are presumably in a 'risk-free' trade. It is too late for us to do that, I suppose, as XON has already entered the cloud. But this one could be fun to watch and see how this is going to work for us on future trades, or not.

To reiterate the criteria we want to see. 1) OBV has reversed from downtrend -- I would like to see more confirmation on that, but hey..it did turn. 2) Slow MACD has signaled uptrend. 3) Price has entered the bottom of the cloud.

We think we are TRENDING so we wish to ride it up. If it does not go up and out we wish to exit the trade with as little damage to our cash supply as possible and move on to the next one. What I like about this system so far is that there is almost ALWAYS something that could be found TRENDING. Up or Down. It can work the same both ways. I will watch this one to see what happens. More fun than watching paint dry.
 

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dpong

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#13
Here's another example, this time the setup is for a bearish trade. I didn't find this one using P&F. Instead it was recommended to me by a subscription service that I subscribe to as a BUY! The story is compelling, agricultural futures (coffee, sugar, etc.) should do well as inflation ticks up. Blah blah blah. I liked the idea, but I kept looking at the charts, and didn't see anything positive. Then I found Ichimoku Clouds and guess what I saw. Yes, the setup for a bearish trade. I hate to bet against what I believe are fundamentals (inflation rising), but I decided to take the trade anyway. If this is trending, then I'm in it.

The P&F Chart is below its most recent Bearish Resistance line. The last signal was a sell signal at $25 (marked with a 6). So that looks not exactly bullish.

The slow Ichimoku Cloud chart shows that the OBV broke from an uptrend to a downtrend. The slow MACD signaled bearish trend in early May. I saw this chart only AFTER it had originally penetrated and then bounced off the cloud, so I'm late to this one. However, now it has clearly entered the cloud at approximately $27.50.

I bought puts for Strike 27 that expire in October. I'm afraid that might not be enough time for this to play out, and besides I think I overpaid slightly for the puts. I would be much interested in hearing from other experienced traders (which I am not, yet), about strategies for pricing your orders when entering an options trade. I tend to pay up more than I should. Well, at least I'm near the money here.

Oh, the bonus on the slow ICHI chart is a fairly good sized H&S formation that I have drawn an approximate neckline on. Couldn't hurt (except that the neckline acts as support until broken).

Again, the trade is to go short on the entry to the cloud. Pull up stop loss orders on exit of the cloud to the downside to 'break-even'. And try to ride as much of the trend down as you can.

Please wish me quick passage through the cloud here.
 

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GOLDZILLA

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#14
I guess if I gotta pick a bottom, I'll choose this one :

NiceAss.jpg
 

dpong

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#15
Aye! I think I feel a trend coming on!
 

dpong

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dpong

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#18
Now, as we await further trends to develop, take a break and listen to this cover of an old Blind Boy Fuller song played and sung by yours truly. Or don't.

:23_28_100s:
:withstupid:


 
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dpong

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#19
Oh yeah. Not to leave anybody out. SLV has broken through the cloud. P&F does not yet show any positives that I can see. I probably should have removed the exclamation point from my annotation. It has simply broken through the cloud though.

Break-even stop loss would still be placed very tightly here, under this system, as SAGI pointed out.

PS. Don't get too excited here. Notice it also broke 'through the cloud' back in February.

PPS. This could develop into a trend, but so far it looks more like a 'spike' than a 'trend'.
 

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Hystckndle

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#20
You aint joking r u..?
Dats ur licks and cover ?
:bowdown::beer::thumbs_up:
Hah !, pretty cool....made my forth....thanks.
 

dpong

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#21
I wouldn't joke about a thing like that. Thx!
You aint joking r u..?
Dats ur licks and cover ?
:bowdown::beer::thumbs_up:
Hah !, pretty cool....made my forth....thanks.
 

917601

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#22
I understand; and.....how do we profit from this?
You do not understand if you are asking how do I profit. You should be asking " how do I not lose my money"? ... The last 6 years all conventional investing wisdom has flown out the window. Savings account? Bonds? Stock market? Real estate? Forex? Commodities? All have had the rug pulled out at the most illogical time. Right now, dig in, keep your head down, stay behind cover, and accumulate these two items . When an actual recovery occurs, gold and cash will be King, just why do you think Tier One assets have just been defined by the Fed Reserve and the IMF as gold and cash? Not stocks, not bonds, not derivatives, not real estate. Do not be caught " out of ammo" when the dust settles, TPTB are accumulating " ammo" for a reason, you should to.
 

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#23
Next topic: a trend vs. a spike.
 

SAGI

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#24
You do not understand if you are asking how do I profit. You should be asking " how do I not lose my money"? ... The last 6 years all conventional investing wisdom has flown out the window. Savings account? Bonds? Stock market? Real estate? Forex? Commodities? All have had the rug pulled out at the most illogical time. Right now, dig in, keep your head down, stay behind cover, and accumulate these two items . When an actual recovery occurs, gold and cash will be King, just why do you think Tier One assets have just been defined by the Fed Reserve and the IMF as gold and cash? Not stocks, not bonds, not derivatives, not real estate. Do not be caught " out of ammo" when the dust settles, TPTB are accumulating " ammo" for a reason, you should to.
I understand and accept I know nothing. Perhaps another thread should be started where we can put our thoughts there where we can analyse and find a method that can be shown to all of us on how we avoid the situation you state. Perhaps some articles, and information would aid us. I personally would welcome that as I am always willing to listen and learn from all contributors here.

Thank you.

SAGI
 

Scorpio

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#25
IMO,

trendlines, clouds, p&f, rsi, elliot, etc all boil down to one thing

pick one, get really good with it, know the ins and outs along with when it typically works, and where the failures happen. Don't clog the mind with new techniques except for fun, and curiosity.

trading for profit is #1 about money management than it is technicals. Technicals are just another way of keeping score. OP is absolutely correct that the trend is your friend, no matter what. Up or down.

Had a friend years ago give me a example trading program built in spreadsheet format. You would input daily close prices, and it would either give you blank, or a buy, or a sell. That was it. It accounted for a few different things, ie rolling average looking back, standard deviants, etc. The beauty was, you could choose different base values and go from there. For instance, I found the 20 dma to be more conducive to what I was doing than any other at x standard deviants. The real work to it was inputting closing values across however many items you were watching daily. Then as contracts turned, as I was working in futures, you had to rebuild all the data to the nearest month and go again. The same circumstances would not be present on some of the stuff OP mentioned. Don't even know how the system would work on straight stock plays.

Then if you want to get really good at something, try hand plotting and building your own charts. There is a big difference on creating hand charts on large graph paper compared to just pulling one up on the screen. You actually 'live' the action as your hand and brain are working together to create the 'ohh ****' moment or the 'time to get on getting on'.

Scorp
 

917601

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#26
IMO,

trendlines, clouds, p&f, rsi, elliot, etc all boil down to one thing

pick one, get really good with it, know the ins and outs along with when it typically works, and where the failures happen. Don't clog the mind with new techniques except for fun, and curiosity.

trading for profit is #1 about money management than it is technicals. Technicals are just another way of keeping score. OP is absolutely correct that the trend is your friend, no matter what. Up or down.

Had a friend years ago give me a example trading program built in spreadsheet format. You would input daily close prices, and it would either give you blank, or a buy, or a sell. That was it. It accounted for a few different things, ie rolling average looking back, standard deviants, etc. The beauty was, you could choose different base values and go from there. For instance, I found the 20 dma to be more conducive to what I was doing than any other at x standard deviants. The real work to it was inputting closing values across however many items you were watching daily. Then as contracts turned, as I was working in futures, you had to rebuild all the data to the nearest month and go again. The same circumstances would not be present on some of the stuff OP mentioned. Don't even know how the system would work on straight stock plays.

Then if you want to get really good at something, try hand plotting and building your own charts. There is a big difference on creating hand charts on large graph paper compared to just pulling one up on the screen. You actually 'live' the action as your hand and brain are working together to create the 'ohh ****' moment or the 'time to get on getting on'.

Scorp
I bought a copy of Sinclair's charting method years ago, pencil, Fib curves, and graph paper. I am no expert, but it helped calling the low in Gold, $1174. ( .618 of the high). However, the more manipulated the markets, the less it will accurately forecast. Years prior, Sinclair first called the top in Gold, $1650, ( it went past $1800) and if you notice he can no longer forecast accurately because of all the unnatural price swings, ......violation of Fib rules, ETF drawdowns, massive Central Bank, Russia, China buying, futures manipulations....same for equity markets and real estate.Fact is, even the real estate market is dead if you removed the inflation factor,( and property taxes have skyrocketed).... and that is with record low financing rates. To many minefields and booby traps in every sector.
 

dpong

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#27
In my conception of TA, I try to 'predict' as little as possible. Predicting is difficult, especially about the future. Instead I am mostly watching to SEE what is actually happening right now. What recently happened, and what is happening right now. We have to predict a little, like for instance I see a trend and I think it is more likely than not going to continue for now, but I would prefer not even to predict that. As you see I can't even predict what my own next topic is going to be.

Instead of predicting very much at all, I want to find a trend. I want to expose myself to as much of the potential upside of that trend as possible. Simultaneously, I will try to protect myself from as much of the potential downside as possible. I'm exposed to potential gains. I'm protected from potential losses. To me, TA is not about telling or predicting what the market will do so much as understanding what I should do, and when.

Yes, along the way we do have intuitions about what the market may do next... sometimes..
 
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dpong

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#28
Dear SAGI,

I had said that my next topic would be trends vs. spikes. I posted that so I would not forget. Just for fun, here are some definitions that I made up. A 'trend' is a movement or tendency that takes place over time. A spike is a movement or tendency that takes place all at once. The 'over time' vs. 'all at once' criteria are absolutely a manifestation of the time frame that one is using to view the event. For example, a spike on the daily may very well look like a trend on the hourly or 15 min timeframe chart.

I may have stumbled upon an insight that would help us decide which Ichimoku charts may be more valid, or more likely to be an actual TREND than the others. I will need to verify this insight over time. But the insight revolves around the idea that what we are trying to find is a TREND, and that a TREND takes place over TIME.

It wasn't brought out in the Rob Booker video, but it seems to me that in the successful trades that he showed there were a sequence of events that took place OVER TIME. I don't remember if Rob used slow MACD in his analysis or simply kept it simple. Either way, what you and I are doing is 1) OBV turns, 2) slow MACD turns, 3) Enter the cloud. Yes, we have examples where 1 & 2 are switched in order. But what I'm noticing is that of the 4 charts I posted so far -- in some of them the 3 events were bunched up very tightly together in time. The two most bunched up in time of 1, 2 & 3 are SLV and also MPEL. The signals didn't happen 'in time' as much as they sort of all happened very close together in time.

I'm thinking of using a shorthand and calling this, where the events are close together in time, 'spikes'. The ones where the 3 events occurred further apart in time I'm thinking of using a shorthand and calling them 'trends'.

I don't know if this is a valid insight, but we think trends should develop in time, not all at once. This Ichimoku system, especially the traditional full system, has all sorts of tools to prevent early entry - to prevent from entering unless it is a valid trend. This is the point. We want a trend. We don't want a spike.

The difference between a spike and a trend is really a spectrum. A chart can display more or less 'spikiness' or 'trendiness'.

At any rate, below I have listed the 4 charts I posted in order from what I'm calling a 'spike' to what I'm calling a 'trend' based upon the time between the sequence of various events. Yes, some haven't entered the cloud yet. If my 'insight' has any merit, one would expect the charts further down the list to be more likely to be valid trends. The ones at the top of the list, more likely to be 'spikes'. We'll see.

Anyway, I am looking at this as food for thought.

Cheers,
dpong

SLV - spike
MPEL - bunched up
XON - medium
DBA - trend

PS. Any thoughts?
PPS. I am reviewing Rob's video, and see he was taking trades even when these 'events' occurred close together. Well, at least I'm thinking. I will watch for these phenomena anyway.
 
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Goldhedge

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#29
I appreciate dpong's efforts. Not sure these folks do...

after each 'bold' say to yourself "Ya think!??"

British MPs urge watchdog to probe price-rigging in gold market
By Sam Fleming and Daniel Schäfer in London
July 2, 2014 6:48 pm

British MPs have called on the UK’s financial watchdog to investigate allegations of price-rigging in the London gold market after a senior regulatory executive said that there may have been co-ordinated attempts to manipulate a crucial benchmark.

Members of the influential parliamentary Treasury select committee pressed the Financial Conduct Authority to act after hearing evidence on Wednesday from gold market analysts who believe there is scope to rig the daily price-setting process and that it has probably been exploited frequently.

“If this evidence is even half true, the regulators need to find a way of acting much more quickly,”
Andrew Tyrie, chairman of the committee said. “Were they to conclude that their powers are inadequate, they should tell parliament.”

The London gold fix is a twice-daily auction process, controlled by four banks, that is used by everyone from central banks to jewellers and gold miners to set a reference price for bullion. It came under renewed scrutiny this May when the FCA fined Barclays £26m for price rigging by an options trader.

The watchdog so far has not launched a broader probe into the gold fix’s panel members – which includeBarclays, HSBC, Scotiabank and Société Générale and formerly Deutsche Bank.

http://www.ft.com/home/us

and formerly the Rothschild banking family... who read the chicken entrails and got out while the getting was good!
 

dpong

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#30
Goldhedge,

That is another reason to try not to 'predict' too much. But if you watch you can SEE what is going on. Anyway, that is what I try to do with TA. LOOK and SEE.

Regards,
dpong
 

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Scorpio

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#31
just for reference,

any trading is taking a position or having a opinion on direction,

anyone not believing so is just being close minded about the whole casino,

there is no such thing as strictly mechanical as some claim, as when you make the decision to follow your system or whatever, you have then injected non-mechanical emotion into the equation. The only difference may be the program traders where it totally executes without human input.

what you are trying to do is minimize your emotional ties and develop a system that is reliable should you follow the rules created. Even then though, don't kid yourself, as trading is a very curious thing. It can become almost like a drug, and this is the downfall of many, much like alcohol.

For those that can remain smooth and cool over time, they have it figured out. There are those that can trade for awhile, then take extended breaks to purge their being. While others will become addicted to the process and continue to get their asses handed to them as it has become about the process rather than the proper way to proceed. Where it becomes a game of winning or losing, and the next big hit is just around the corner. Lastly, there are those that just plain explode/implode like a super nova, and never to be seen or heard from again.

Yep, there are many different types of traders. Don't kid yourself, it is a game, albeit a rigged game. It can be played, and it can be won. You have to know your positives and your limitations. You do have to know when to hold them and when to fold them, and when to gtfo of the game before it gets you.

It is intense, of that you can be sure. It takes a great deal of time and effort to get good at and be successful at it. All that rubbish put out by the next soothsayer up to bat is just that, rubbish. It isn't a get rich scheme, it is a profession, and it demands obedience.
 

dpong

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#32
First we must realize that Technical Analysis (TA) and trading are not the same thing. We must not conflate the two. TA is LOOKING and SEEING what is going on right now. TRADING on the other hand is in fact taking a position in regards to that. They are related, one is helpful to the other. But they are not the same thing. To me this differentiation is essential.
 

Scorpio

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#33
sure they are different, but the argument is nonsense. A trader mentality is totally different from a theologian style.

I am not interested in playing around with it for no purpose.
 
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dpong

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#34
When initiating a limit buy order on options, what strategies do you use to try and get the best fill price? For example do you always bid under the bid price, or at the bid price, or between the bid and offer price?

I imagine it varies according to circumstances, such as the underlying item's price is making a quick move, or the volume on the options are low or high, or the spread is wide or narrow, etc.

I'd love to hear all about that from experienced traders.
 

Scorpio

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#35
I don't care about buying bottoms or selling tops, trying to squeeze a nickel out of something,

I buy value, and am doing so currently. That means unless taking a flyer, just tight limits below last close to allow for market fluctuations. If it opens higher and keeps on going, I wait. I use mental stops only so they don't know where my stops are.

Charts tell me where value is, then close up techs will tell me what is going on with existing positions.

Too funny as most people throw up stops to protect themselves, bared for all the market makers to see, and get dutifully hosed on fills because of it. Not to mention the players will gun for groups of stops, clear your ass out, then the market many times will turn back up, leaving you off the train.

It is of no consequence if you coulda woulda shoulda, only what is

As you stated, you have to 'see', and if your eyes are foggy, so be it, as it becomes part of trading

your question re options, I'll leave that to someone else as that is not my game. Don't like 'em, and won't use them. Doesn't fit my style except to donate to the casino.
 

917601

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#36
Much like the gardener said, I observed and planted, my first planting was around 9/11, it took no ' understanding" of highs,lows,retracements,triple bottoms….. and I was amazed how well it grew all by itself. $260-480-570-1000-1650-1900…..this past year and a half has been another planting season,I prefer to plant then sit back and watch the garden grow the next 7 years…….others like to go to the casino. Call me a lazy gardener.
 

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#37
Yep, there are many different types of traders. Don't kid yourself, it is a game, albeit a rigged game. It can be played, and it can be won. You have to know your positives and your limitations. You do have to know when to hold them and when to fold them, and when to gtfo of the game before it gets you.

It is intense, of that you can be sure. It takes a great deal of time and effort to get good at and be successful at it. All that rubbish put out by the next soothsayer up to bat is just that, rubbish. It isn't a get rich scheme, it is a profession, and it demands obedience.
Well said, Scorp!
 

dpong

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#38
I see at least a ST trend change in the US Long Treasury Bond price. 20+ year interest rates just ticked a little higher. This could be the turn.

Red horizontal lines represent Strike Prices on my Puts. 106 looks like a struggler. 111 is slightly in the money as of Friday.

But the implications of rising long interest rates dwarfs any puts I may have.
 

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#39
dpong, if slow growth is what you like check out BYDDF. Chinese electric bus/car/battery manufacturer. Warren Buffet owns 10% of it. I have close to 10% of my portfolio parked in it. Fairly liquid. Some analysts expect it to go to $11. Currently under $6.
 

dpong

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#40