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Portillo's

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For anyone that's been to downtown Chicago, you've most certainly dined at or at least heard of Portillo's (PTLO) $23.62. Branded as Chicago street food. Portillo's 34 units, at the time, were purchased in 2014 by Berkshire Partners for $1 billion, according to restaurantbusinessonline.com. Portillo's went public last October with an IPO of $26. About a month later shares topped out at about $54. This Summer, June 13th, it bottomed at $15.42. Portillo's has been described as "Fun" and "a nice place to eat" from out-of-towners that have eaten there on my recommendation. A family of 4 can drop $40 to $50 for lunch/dinner easy, however, it is seen as recession proof fast food dining. Hot dogs, burgers, Italian beefs, Decent ribs, good fries and now even a "Garden hot dog".

  • There are currently 67 Portillo's restaurants across 9 states.

  • Portillo's is focusing their expansion on out-of-state locations that treat businesses better. For new locations, CEO Michael Osanloo said Arizona, Florida and Texas will make up “at least the majority – if not the vast majority.”Aug 29, 2022

  • Portillo's has aggressive plans to grow to 600 stores by 2046. Management claim they are positioned for global growth.

  • Each Portillo's grossed approx. $4.4 million per store, before Covid. Estimated at twice as much income as Chipotle, per store. Chipotle price per share: $1707/share compared to Portillo's $23/share.

  • In the 12-month period that ended June 27, 2021, locations welcomed 825,000 guests. Drive-thru sales alone were $4.9 million per unit—more than double McDonald's 2019 figures. Dine-in sales came in at $1.9 million and delivery $850,000. Before COVID, Portillo's raked in $4.4 million per store.

  • The 9 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Portillos Inc have a median target of 27.00, with a high estimate of 40.00 and a low estimate of 23.00. The median estimate represents a +23.63% increase from the last price of 21.84.


Some improvement opportunities, IMO:
  • It seems that a lot of fast food restaurant employees are still moving slower than before COVID and that includes Portillo's.

  • Drive-through needs more modern technology, McDonald's style double lines, and ordering stations. Chick-fillet is also improving their drive-through configuration to process orders faster. Having said that, If you want to see a drive-through crew that's got it down; it's the crew at Portillo's downtown Chicago on Ontario. They kick a$$.

  • The Portillo's near me still hasn't ramped up their pasta/salad stations. Their mastacholi with family marinara recipe was pretty good. It wasn't like a fast food pasta joint, Good and consistent.

  • Some organizational changes are needed, IMO to streamline their process and get more dogs out the door. Missing items, etc.


**Please comment on your dining experience at Portillos and/or investment aspect.
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Dick Portillo, on the right, First Marine Division.

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Yahoo Finance Video

Portillo’s CEO on expanding in the Sun Belt: ‘We’re following the growth’​


May 17, 2022




Portillo's CEO Michael Osanloo joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the chain's expansion in Texas, Florida, and other Sun Belt states, hiring, and rolling out a new plant-based hot dog offering.

Video Transcript​

BRIAN CHEUNG: Well, if you're craving a Chicago style red hot, you don't need to look any further than Windy City staple Portillo's. It's a fast casual restaurant chain continuing its nationwide expansion, with new locations in Florida and plans to open as well in Texas. So a lot in going on in this space.
Let's bring in Michael Osanloo, Portillo's CEO, for more on this. Michael, great to have you on the program. Your company is young in its life as a publicly traded company, but obviously, a lot of expansion that you're planning going forward. Tell us a little bit about the type of environment that you're trying to expand, and obviously, inflationary pressures, I'm sure, making it more expensive across the board, how you're operating in this uncertain environment.
MICHAEL OSANLOO: Yeah, well, first, thanks for having me on, Brian. Really, really great to see you. Look, our expansion-- we are, as you said, we're six months into our public journey. But we're a 59-year-old brand that really has stood the test of time. And we're very proud of that. And our expansion plans are pretty deliberate. We really want to expand along the Sun Belt, places like Florida and Texas and Arizona. We have found, as we've gone into Arizona and to Florida, where we now have some scale, that our food works great.
The experience is something that delights our guests. And we think our brand resonates in those markets. And as you said, we're excited to go into Texas in the fourth quarter. We're following growth, Brian. We're going to places where the population is growing, where the economies are healthy, where there's a great environment for companies, and where maybe the labor situation is not quite as challenging in some other markets. So that's what we're doing. We're following the growth.
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Is Portillo's Inc.'s (NASDAQ:pTLO) Shareholder Ownership Skewed Towards Insiders?​



Simply Wall St
June 5, 2022·4 min read






A look at the shareholders of Portillo's Inc. (NASDAQ:pTLO) can tell us which group is most powerful. Insiders often own a large chunk of younger, smaller, companies while huge companies tend to have institutions as shareholders. I quite like to see at least a little bit of insider ownership. As Charlie Munger said 'Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.
Portillo's is not a large company by global standards. It has a market capitalization of US$637m, which means it wouldn't have the attention of many institutional investors. Our analysis of the ownership of the company, below, shows that institutional investors have bought into the company. Let's delve deeper into each type of owner, to discover more about Portillo's.
View our latest analysis for Portillo's
ownership-breakdown
ownership-breakdown

What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Portillo's?​

Institutions typically measure themselves against a benchmark when reporting to their own investors, so they often become more enthusiastic about a stock once it's included in a major index. We would expect most companies to have some institutions on the register, especially if they are growing.
- ADVERTISEMENT -

As you can see, institutional investors have a fair amount of stake in Portillo's. This can indicate that the company has a certain degree of credibility in the investment community. However, it is best to be wary of relying on the supposed validation that comes with institutional investors. They too, get it wrong sometimes. If multiple institutions change their view on a stock at the same time, you could see the share price drop fast. It's therefore worth looking at Portillo's' earnings history below. Of course, the future is what really matters.
earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth
Our data indicates that hedge funds own 5.4% of Portillo's. That catches my attention because hedge funds sometimes try to influence management, or bring about changes that will create near term value for shareholders. Berkshire Partners LLC is currently the largest shareholder, with 34% of shares outstanding. Meanwhile, the second and third largest shareholders, hold 5.4% and 5.1%, of the shares outstanding, respectively. Additionally, the company's CEO Michael Osanloo directly holds 3.4% of the total shares outstanding.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________



Portillo's brings Beef Bus tour to DFW, ahead of grand opening in the fall​

7e0a1d74e2ded21fbd86f575c7ed615f

Portillo's brings Beef Bus tour to DFW, ahead of grand opening in the fall
DBJ staff
June 29, 2022





The 32-foot Beef Bus will offer North Texas residents a taste of Portillo’s Chicago-style street food ahead of its first restaurant opening at Grandscape in The Colony this fall.
 

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Cigarlover

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Well done. I like when there's tons of info posted on a stock. Good starting point before diving into the financials.
 

Uglytruth

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I like Maxwells better.


Maxwell's Beef
2003 63rd St (Woodward Ave)
Downers Grove, IL 60516
United States

1662725015082.png
 

BigJim#1-8

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When I was a kid i remember the original Portillo's. It was a small trailer that looked like a hut in a parking lot on North Ave west of Lombard IL. The hut didn't even have running water.
Amazing success story.
 

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Son of Gloin

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Isn’t Portillo’s the one that has the chocolate cake shake? I think that was the place Fluffy (“Hey! It’s fluffy!”), Gabriel Iglesias, mentioned in one of his shows. It looked like an instant diabetes Kickstarter, but it looked really good.
 

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I met Dick Portillo many years ago. One Saturday night, just before he sold the business for nearly a billion dollars, I ran into him at one of his restaurants. It was 7pm, Saturday evening, and he was on the line filling orders and he blended in with the workers. I went over to say hi and ask how he was, he told me he was in town and heard the crew was short handed, so he jumped in to help. BTW, he was 73 at the time.
He's one of the most down to earth, hard working men I've ever met.
 

Son of Gloin

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1490 calories! Wooo doggies! (Channeling Jed Clampett there)
BA1F0271-92A0-424E-B441-DCF98A27E0B1.jpeg
 

Goldbuds

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When I was a kid i remember the original Portillo's. It was a small trailer that looked like a hut in a parking lot on North Ave west of Lombard IL. The hut didn't even have running water.
Amazing success story.

That’s hilarious! Worlds first billion Dollar mobile hot dog shack. I wonder how many parking lots he rolled up to before finding the sweet spot on North Ave.

 

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Goldbuds

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I like Maxwells better.


Maxwell's Beef
2003 63rd St (Woodward Ave)
Downers Grove, IL 60516
United States

View attachment 272725

UG,
why did you show me this now I have to go there. That’s the thing about downtown Chicago, the awesome restaurants, hidden pizza gems and fast food joints are 20 minutes away. If you’re from out of town, you have to park, get a room and take a 20 minute taxi ride. Or you can go to Portillos, Gino’s East pizza or Carson’s ribs downtown.
 

ToBeSelfEvident

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Looks like they aren't expanding to North Florida yet. We did get some Culver's restaurants from Wisconsin (Home of the Butter Burger). They have a good Atlantic cod fish sandwich and the malted shakes are awesome. I have not tried their burgers yet, but the restaurants are always packed.
 

Uglytruth

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UG,
why did you show me this now I have to go there. That’s the thing about downtown Chicago, the awesome restaurants, hidden pizza gems and fast food joints are 20 minutes away. If you’re from out of town, you have to park, get a room and take a 20 minute taxi ride. Or you can go to Portillos, Gino’s East pizza or Carson’s ribs downtown.
You won't regret it. Make sure to get the Italian Ice for desert!
 

Goldbuds

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Looks like they aren't expanding to North Florida yet. We did get some Culver's restaurants from Wisconsin (Home of the Butter Burger). They have a good Atlantic cod fish sandwich and the malted shakes are awesome. I have not tried their burgers yet, but the restaurants are always packed.


If I were a betting man, I'd say Jacksonville and suburbs would be a no brainer in the near future. Also Panama city for the Spring breakers. But for now it appears they're targetting the super markets: Orlando and Tampa.


1662751068106.png
 

Goldbuds

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Well done. I like when there's tons of info posted on a stock. Good starting point before diving into the financials.


CL, thank you and especially thanks for bringing up the most important ingredient at PTLO or any business. Sounds like everyone agrees that their food is decent and should sell across the nation as it has been selling in Chicagoland. Going forward, it'll depend on the discipline of management, choice of location and speed of growth, amongst other things. However, they can have the best food in the world but if they don't make money for us investors/speculators, they're no good to us.

I'm a big fan of the Chipotle model. They took the nation by storm. I took a stab at Noodles and Co NDLS, because it was a project of the Chipotle founder. All you have to do is look in their parking lots. They're not popular with mainstream customers. Their stock price went from the $40's, in 2013, to $5 currently.

If you want to see pandemonium, especially during the Holidays, check out Portillo's. Their drive-through had lines wrapped around the mall parking. I thought it was the emission testing facility at first, LOL. BUT they still have to make us money.

Looking at PTLO stats on yahoo finance, I see more debt than cash on hand. And the following article that brought the price down about $3 when it came out.

I'd love the hear the opinions of CL and other members to make sure I don't miss anything, as I'm sure I have, LOL. I'm here to learn, I'm not a financial or TA guru.





Portillo’s Inc. Announces Pricing of Public Follow-on Offering of 8,000,000 Shares of Class A Common Stock in “Synthetic Secondary” Transaction​







Portillo’s Inc.

Portillo’s Inc.
CHICAGO, Aug. 11, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Portillo’s Inc. (“Portillo’s”) (Nasdaq: PTLO), the fast-casual restaurant concept known for its menu of Chicago-style favorites, today announced the pricing of an underwritten public offering of 8,000,000 shares of its Class A common stock at a price to the public of $23.75 per share. The underwriters have a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 1,200,000 shares of its Class A common stock at the public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions.
The pre- and post-offering share counts for Portillo’s Class A common stock and Class B common stock are listed below:
Pre-OfferingPost-Offering (No Option Exercise)Post-Offering (Full Option Exercise)
Class AClass BClass AClass BClass AClass B
36,218,35535,673,32142,111,95529,779,72142,995,99628,895,680
TotalTotalTotal
71,891,67671,891,67671,891,676

The offering is expected to close on August 16, 2022, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

Portillo’s expects to use the net proceeds from the proposed offering to (a) purchase LLC Units of PHD Group Holdings LLC held by existing holders, and (b) purchase shares of Class A common stock from certain existing holders, each in a “synthetic secondary” transaction. As a result, Portillo’s will not receive any proceeds from this offering. Upon close of the transaction, the total number of shares of Class A common stock and Class B common stock will remain the same; however, the amount of shares of Class A common stock will increase by the same amount of the decrease in the number of shares of Class B common stock.
Jefferies, Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities and Piper Sandler are acting as lead joint book-running managers and representatives for the proposed offering. Baird, UBS Investment Bank and William Blair are also acting as lead book-running managers for the proposed offering. Guggenheim Securities, Stifel, Loop Capital Markets and Ramirez & Co., Inc. are acting as co-managers for the proposed offering.




Valuation Measures4​



Annual
Quarterly


Monthly



Current
6/30/20223/31/202212/31/2021
Market Cap (intraday)1.01B592.17M879.42M1.34B
Enterprise Value1.28B878.93M1.16B1.76B
Trailing P/EN/AN/AN/A415.33
Forward P/E64.52106.38156.25117.65
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)N/AN/AN/AN/A
Price/Sales (ttm)1.481.061.642.45
Price/Book (mrq)5.553.425.139.26
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.285.848.6212.71
Enterprise Value/EBITDA37.0935.8796.46-71.47
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Trading Information​

Stock Price History​

Beta (5Y Monthly)N/A
52-Week Change 3-18.04%
S&P500 52-Week Change 3-8.98%
52 Week High 357.72
52 Week Low 314.84
50-Day Moving Average 321.81
200-Day Moving Average 324.54

Share Statistics​

Avg Vol (3 month) 3700.46k
Avg Vol (10 day) 3508.34k
Shares Outstanding 544.22M
Implied Shares Outstanding 6N/A
Float 824.87M
% Held by Insiders 110.40%
% Held by Institutions 168.35%
Shares Short (Aug 15, 2022) 45.09M
Short Ratio (Aug 15, 2022) 45.39
Short % of Float (Aug 15, 2022) 425.38%
Short % of Shares Outstanding (Aug 15, 2022) 414.06%
Shares Short (prior month Jul 15, 2022) 44.85M

Dividends & Splits​

Forward Annual Dividend Rate 4N/A
Forward Annual Dividend Yield 4N/A
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 30.00
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 30.00%
5 Year Average Dividend Yield 4N/A
Payout Ratio 40.00%
Dividend Date 3N/A
Ex-Dividend Date 4N/A
Last Split Factor 2N/A
Last Split Date 3N/A

Financial Highlights​

Fiscal Year​

Fiscal Year EndsDec 26, 2021
Most Recent Quarter (mrq)Jun 26, 2022

Profitability​

Profit Margin-7.36%
Operating Margin (ttm)3.27%

Management Effectiveness​

Return on Assets (ttm)1.19%
Return on Equity (ttm)-4.00%

Income Statement​

Revenue (ttm)562.02M
Revenue Per Share (ttm)19.96
Quarterly Revenue Growth (yoy)7.00%
Gross Profit (ttm)142.08M
EBITDA39.48M
Net Income Avi to Common (ttm)-51.48M
Diluted EPS (ttm)-1.51
Quarterly Earnings Growth (yoy)-62.80%

Balance Sheet​

Total Cash (mrq)49.73M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq)1.37
Total Debt (mrq)318.73M
Total Debt/Equity (mrq)71.82
Current Ratio (mrq)1.30
Book Value Per Share (mrq)5.04

Cash Flow Statement​

Operating Cash Flow (ttm)35.42M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm)3.02M
 

Stop Making Cents

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good luck with it.

We have one near where I live and I've never had any interest in going. Hot dogs disgust me. Their sandwiches might be good? I don't know. Might be worth a try sometime but doubt I go. When they first opened, they were crazy busy, but I'm not sure they still are anymore.

How much do they charge for a sandwich? Do their ingredients cost a lot more to procure than Chipotle's? I just get the impression i'm going to spend a huge amount of money to eat there (like Five Guys) even though i have no idea what they cost. I'd rather go to a sit down restaurant.

I still can't believe chipotle, facebook, google, etc. became such huge companies and stocks so what do I know? Maybe this one will too.
 

Uglytruth

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Strange timing....... before a much hyped recesion............. Raising cash or don't believe the news?
 

Cigarlover

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I've never had their food but sounds like it must be good.
Quarterly revenue up 7% YOY, will this translate into 30% annually?
Unfortunately it looks like that's the highlight of the balance sheet. The rest doesn't look so good.
Quarterly earning growth down 62%
Debt seems pretty high but I don't know what the industry average is.
Negative earnings right now as well.
I don't know how many new stores are in the works and what that will do to earnings and revenue and of course debt. Looks like they have nice places, maybe to nice for what they are serving? I've never been to one so I have no idea really.
It does seem like a tough time to expand. Inflation is high, interest rates are rising, labor costs as well as food costs are going up and way up.
I was out to dinner last week with some friends. Place was packed which tells me the recession hasn't kicked in fully and I don't think it will until next year Q1.

They been in business since 1963 so 59 years. They did something right to last that long. Looks like they been public for a year or less..

Powell says it's going to be painful going forward (For us little people anyway)If that's true then I expect dining out to become a luxury, even at fast food joints.

I've already added them to the watch list. Lets see how they do in the coming months. Holiday season is always good for everyone. It's the quarter afterwards that should be the hard one.
 

Uglytruth

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Neighbor has the Lee's chicken place. He said costs are up, labor is up, utilities are up. Sales are making it hard to raise prices.

I've been to Portillos but there is better Italian Beef in Chicago in my opinion.
 

Goldbuds

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good luck with it.

We have one near where I live and I've never had any interest in going. Hot dogs disgust me. Their sandwiches might be good? I don't know. Might be worth a try sometime but doubt I go. When they first opened, they were crazy busy, but I'm not sure they still are anymore.

How much do they charge for a sandwich? Do their ingredients cost a lot more to procure than Chipotle's? I just get the impression i'm going to spend a huge amount of money to eat there (like Five Guys) even though i have no idea what they cost. I'd rather go to a sit down restaurant.

I still can't believe chipotle, facebook, google, etc. became such huge companies and stocks so what do I know? Maybe this one will


SMC, when you see this guy's mug endorsing a restaurant, it usually means its pretty ok. I personally don't like Chipotle but their share price did a moon shot. Its what the majority think that counts.

Is it me or does Guy Fierri have some great picks on his show. Or should I ask, has anyone been to one of his restaurant picks that you didn't like?


1662870229076.png
 
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Goldbuds

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Strange timing....... before a much hyped recesion............. Raising cash or don't believe the news?

Hind-sight is a mo-fo. I don't know how long those things take but $57 would have been the time to do it. For some reason, hot dog/beef sandwich joints do OK during tough financial times. And liquor stores, LOL.

Also, their expansion isn't a new thing. They've been expanding for a long time.
 
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Goldbuds

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I've never had their food but sounds like it must be good.
Quarterly revenue up 7% YOY, will this translate into 30% annually?
Unfortunately it looks like that's the highlight of the balance sheet. The rest doesn't look so good.
Quarterly earning growth down 62%
Debt seems pretty high but I don't know what the industry average is.
Negative earnings right now as well.
I don't know how many new stores are in the works and what that will do to earnings and revenue and of course debt. Looks like they have nice places, maybe to nice for what they are serving? I've never been to one so I have no idea really.
It does seem like a tough time to expand. Inflation is high, interest rates are rising, labor costs as well as food costs are going up and way up.
I was out to dinner last week with some friends. Place was packed which tells me the recession hasn't kicked in fully and I don't think it will until next year Q1.

They been in business since 1963 so 59 years. They did something right to last that long. Looks like they been public for a year or less..

Powell says it's going to be painful going forward (For us little people anyway)If that's true then I expect dining out to become a luxury, even at fast food joints.

I've already added them to the watch list. Lets see how they do in the coming months. Holiday season is always good for everyone. It's the quarter afterwards that should be the hard one.

It does look a little too fancy for street food, but it's not really. When you go in you'll know what I mean. Small wooden tables and decent sized wooden bench booths. Each restaurant has Chicago street jazz playing. Designed more for a charter bus to pull up with 60 people with no problem.

Just like people turn to the Dollar for safety during challenging times, people also turn to comfort street food type of joints, IMO. I remember during 2008/2009 eating at one near my job. There was no shortage of customers.

Full disclosure: I currently own only 50 shares of PTLO. I'm basically watching it also. I'm hoping for a double-bottom or better this Spring to load up. I decided to create the thread now to get PTLO on the radar for some members that may be interested.
 

Goldbuds

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Neighbor has the Lee's chicken place. He said costs are up, labor is up, utilities are up. Sales are making it hard to raise prices.

I've been to Portillos but there is better Italian Beef in Chicago in my opinion.

Thanks UG,
if they're close to downtown please share the best places you've been to. If they're publicly trading, even better.
 

BigJim#1-8

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gringott

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When I was a kid i remember the original Portillo's. It was a small trailer that looked like a hut in a parking lot on North Ave west of Lombard IL. The hut didn't even have running water.
Amazing success story.
That was in Villa Park in the parking lot of Big R I believe. We used to buy there all the time. Worst weather in winter, you went up the metal steps to a metal mesh platform and gave your order. Freezing your ass off. But they were fast.

I have a Portillo's hat, a snowglobe with the first trailer in it, and one share of stock.

I have zero insider information but his sudden expansion I suspected was funded with outfit money. He built a bunch and they were very fancy for the time, each one had a theme, like Addison had a 50s thing with tile etc. Who knows?
 

BigJim#1-8

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That was in Villa Park in the parking lot of Big R I believe. We used to buy there all the time. Worst weather in winter, you went up the metal steps to a metal mesh platform and gave your order. Freezing your ass off. But they were fast.

I have a Portillo's hat, a snowglobe with the first trailer in it, and one share of stock.

I have zero insider information but his sudden expansion I suspected was funded with outfit money. He built a bunch and they were very fancy for the time, each one had a theme, like Addison had a 50s thing with tile etc. Who knows?
Yep, & the other store across North Ave was Topps. Long time ago.
 

BigJim#1-8

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ToBeSelfEvident

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There's a hot dog place near us that hasn't changed in many years. Established in 1972. Dogs, burgers, onion rings, the best steak-in-a-sack ever. They also do a full breakfast menu. Cherry limeade, camel riders. Prices have always been reasonable. Maybe I should try their hot dogs, many people say theirs are the best. I always get the steak in a sack.
 

Uglytruth

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What's a camel rider?
 

Goldbuds

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Can you share a photo? Or lines are too long already, LOL.
 

Son of Gloin

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Pics online: They look good. The one with the salami looking meat is called a camel rider and that makes the other one a steak in a sack.
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