• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

R.T.M. ~ Frontrunning ~ 10th Ed., Vol.2 ~ Mar 7th - 11th

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#1

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#2
Gold Breaks Out! Silver to Follow? | David Morgan
Reluctant Preppers


Published on Mar 5, 2016
Renowned precious metals guru David Morgan returns to Reluctant Preppers to weigh in on whether gold's recent breakout from its trading bottom signals a coming breakout for silver.

Morgan also updates us on his #1 priority preparedness item to stockpile (hint: it's not gold or silver!)

Don't miss this briefing from the recognized authority on silver investments!

Subscribe (it's FREE!) to Reluctant Preppers for more ► http://bit.ly/Subscribe-Free

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#5
Weekly Forex Review - 7th to the 11th of March
Forex Reviews


Published on Mar 5, 2016

Lot's of potential zones and areas of interest covered this week in the review to look for potential evidence and opportunities in the upcoming market ahead. Some zones being tested right now while others to set alarms for when the price gets to the zone.

Zones and areas of interest covered this week include trend based zones as well as some high probability counter trend based zones.

Overall, another week full of potential opportunities.

Thanks for watching and Happy Trading, if you watched this bio do not forget to comment, like and subscribe. Also comment "Happy Trading" below to let me know you read the bio as well.

I appreciate you all.
 

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#7
Catherine Austin Fitts-Criminals Running US Government
Greg Hunter


Published on Mar 6, 2016
Are criminals running the U.S. government? Catherine Austin Fitts, who is a former Assistant HUD Secretary, says, “Yes. . . . The American government . . . is running the central banking warfare model globally, and it depends heavily on criminal profits. If you look at the general population, the general population supports that. . . . The general population supports that as long as they can pretend they don’t have responsibility for that. If you look at the drug trafficking, the mortgage fraud, stuffing innocent people into prison, that is being implemented one county at a time in 3,100 counties. There are millions of Americans getting paid to put a pretty face to it. . . . The party with the debt growth model is over, and that means the party is over for a lot of people who are unproductive.”

Fitts goes on to say, “I agree with Winston Churchill, and he said, ‘Tell the people.’ If you tell the people what the real problems are and give them the tools . . . the wealth potential with new technologies and where you have rule of law where people believe in an economy where winners are allowed to happen. . . . Wow, it could be incredible.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with the founder and creator of The Solari Report Catherine Austin Fitts.
All links can be found on USAWatchdog.com: http://usawatchdog.com/pyramid-of-lie...
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#8
The Shadow World Of The Economic Hitman | John Perkins
FinanceAndLiberty.com


Published on Mar 6, 2016
If you're hoping to have a 'feel good' day today, we're about to owe you an apology.

John Perkins, author of The New Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, is someone we've been trying to get on the program for some time. He tells a dark story of an elite cabal working in the shadows to subjugate governments as it pursues ever-greater control of the planet's resources.

What's most frightening about this story is how credible it is. Anybody paying attention to world developments will have a hard time dismissing Perkins' claims out-of-hand; and a harder time not being sickened at how on the mark his claims may likely prove to be.

This video was posted with permission from http://PeakProsperity.com

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#9
Take this fwiw and dyodd..............

2016 Crash Will be Worse than 2008, History Will Remember This - Gerald Celente Interview
VisionVictory


Published on Mar 7, 2016

GUEST: http://X22Report.com

TOPICS IN THIS INTERVIEW:
01:50 2016 Election, Any Hope for America?
07:20 the US Economy in 2016, Retail Collapse
12:30 Real Estate Market is Flatlining
16:40 How to Prepare for Big Depression
20:30 Digital Currency, Bitcoin
 

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#10
Frontrunning: March 7


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/07/2016 07:29 -0500

  • Trump or Cruz? Republicans face tough choices as primary race churns forward (Reuters)
  • The Week the Republican Party Melted Down (BBG)
  • Rust Belt Could Be Donald Trump’s Best Route to White House (WSJ)
  • China’s Leaders Put the Economy on Bubble Watch (WSJ)
  • Top Chinese Official Rebutts Soros Prediction for Hard Landing (BBG)
  • China Plans Income-Tax Overhaul to Bolster Consumption (BBG)
  • Oil jumps as sentiment boosted; analysts warn of glut (Reuters)
  • The Odd Couple: Merkel, Tsipras Fate Tied Over EU Refugees Deal (BBG)
  • As covered here last week: The Treasury Market's Big Short Is in 10-Year Notes, Repos Show (BBG)
  • China angered by planned U.S. export restrictions on ZTE (Reuters)
  • Europe Faces Pension Predicament (WSJ)
  • The ETF Files: How the U.S. government inadvertently launched a $3 trillion industry (BBG)
  • Draghi Aims ECB's Killer Blow in 11th Round Versus Deflation (BBG)
  • European Central Bank Faces Questions Over Which Bonds to Buy (WSJ)
  • Russia offers access to its Syria bases to help deliver aid (Reuters)
  • In JPMorgan Fintech Bunker, Coders Are Too Focused for Foosball (BBG)
  • BASF shares fall after report it is weighing DuPont bid (Reuters)
  • Wall Street vets battle BP in fallout over Canada refinery (Reuters)


Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

- Donald Trump's success in attracting white, working-class voters is raising the prospect that the Republican Party could attempt to take an unexpected path to the White House that would run through the largely white and slow-to-diversify upper Midwest. (http://on.wsj.com/1TCNAfn)

- Nancy Reagan, the former actress who brought grace and style to her role as first lady in the Ronald Reagan White House, has died in her home in Los Angeles due to congestive heart failure at age 94. (http://on.wsj.com/1U5OShm)

- The Democratic presidential contenders clashed sharply over economic policy in a debate Sunday, with front-runner Hillary Clinton attacking rival Bernie Sanders for his opposition to a federal auto bailout and Sanders charging that Clinton-backed trade deals had helped destroy American cities like Detroit. (http://on.wsj.com/21R94d1)

- Record vehicle leasing could pinch new auto margins by creating a glut of good-condition used cars and adding pressure on new-vehicle margins after years of pricing gains. (http://on.wsj.com/1W1dd7b)

- The European Central Bank's expected move to further reduce a key interest rate is likely to drive down government-bond yields, further reducing borrowing costs that are already near record lows in many nations, according to analysts and investors. (http://on.wsj.com/1npS7U1)

- China's leaders made clear they are emphasizing growth over restructuring this year, but suggested they are trying to avoid inflating debt or asset bubbles as they send massive amounts of money coursing through the economy. (http://on.wsj.com/1QA51uf)

- United Continental Holdings Inc said President and Chief Executive Oscar Munoz plans to return to the carrier on a full-time basis on March 14. (http://on.wsj.com/1QEBtZ1)



FT

French utility EDF's chief financial officer, Thomas Piquemal, has resigned over the company's plan to build nuclear reactors in Britain.

The Pension Protection Fund is in talks with Philip Green and British Home Stores that could see the agency take on responsibility for 20,000 pensioners of the lossmaking department store chain.

The British Chambers of Commerce said on Sunday its director general, John Longworth, had resigned after calling for Britain to leave the European Union despite the business lobby group taking a neutral stance on an upcoming referendum.

The Bank of England is going to lay its focus on reviewing operations of the market risk managers as average daily trading payments held at the utilities topped 8 billion pounds ($11.37 billion) last year.



NYT

- The Obama administration, responding to consumer complaints, says it will begin rating health insurance plans based on how many doctors and hospitals they include in their networks. (nyti.ms/1TkOkW1)

- The Philippines will become the first country to enforce tough new United Nations sanctions on North Korea when it begins formal procedures on Monday to impound a cargo vessel linked to the reclusive nation, a government spokesman said on Sunday. (nyti.ms/1TkP8KA)

- For the first time, a law school will stand trial on charges that it inflated the employment data for its graduates to lure prospective students. On Monday, Anna Alaburda will tell a story that has become all too familiar among law students in the United States: Since graduating from the Thomas Jefferson School of Law in 2008, she has yet to find a full-time salaried job as a lawyer. (nyti.ms/1TkQ55B)

- As some tech sectors show signs of slowing, cloud services have created remarkable demand for highly educated engineers and mathematicians. And they are being compensated very well. (nyti.ms/1TkROrM)

- In an interview, Margrethe Vestager, the European Union's competition commissioner, discusses the issues underpinning her current investigations and whether she unfairly targets U.S. companies. (nyti.ms/1TkSfCi)



Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's official visit to the White House this week should result in a new border pact that will remove a series of barriers hindering the flow of travellers and trade while improving security, says Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale.(bit.ly/1X6kWkp)

** In a new paper called Augur: Mining Human Behaviors from Fiction to Power Interactive Systems, a group of Stanford University computer science researchers revealed that they used the Wattpad "corpus" - a collection of almost two billion words (or 600,000 chapters) written by regular people - to help a computer understand the world around it. The team intends to make the program they built, Augur, into an open-source tool that other researchers can build on.(bit.ly/1ROFfla)

NATIONAL POST

** Nancy Reagan, the helpmate, backstage adviser and fierce protector of Ronald Reagan in his journey from actor to president - and finally during his 10-year battle with Alzheimer's disease - has died. She was 94. (bit.ly/1QFn5zM)

** The son of a former Ottawa cleric who encouraged Libyans to "take part in jihad" was reportedly killed in an armed clash with government forces in Benghazi over the weekend. The death of Owais Egwilla, described as a former Ottawa university student, was announced on social media accounts affiliated with Libyan fighters.(bit.ly/1W2HlPn)





Britain

The Times

* Npower's German owner to cut 2,500 UK workers

(http://thetim.es/1Qw0pE9)

The owner of npower, RWE AG plans to cut more than a fifth of its British workers as it braces itself for a fresh attack by the consumer watchdog.

* Business leader quits in Brexit row

(http://thetim.es/1U5whC7)

John Longworth was suspended on Friday after making a speech in favour of leaving the EU despite the British Chambers of Commerce's decision to remain neutral in the referendum campaign.

The Guardian

* EU referendum: British exit would be 'poison', says German finance minister (http://bit.ly/1Yi2xCE)

A British decision to leave the European Union would be "poison" for the UK, European and global economies that would last for years, the German finance minister has said.

* Grexit back on the agenda again as Greek economy unravels

(http://bit.ly/21fRvxA)

European finance ministers will once again deliberate over how to treat Greece's ongoing debt crisis this week despite the country desperately grappling with refugees pouring across its borders.

The Telegraph

* England's water market poised for M&A wave

(http://bit.ly/1X5sUKE)

Water utilities in England are braced for a market shake- up, with analysts expecting a wave of mergers, acquisitions and new entrants within the next three months to tap the increasingly competitive business supply market.

* UK manufacturing has hit bottom, says EEF

(http://bit.ly/1Qw1nAg)

Industry trade group EEF said that "rays of light" have begun to cut through the gloom which in 2015 caused the UK's manufactured output and orders to hit their lowest point in six years.

Sky News

* FTSE-100 giant Old Mutual plots 9 billion pounds break-up

(http://bit.ly/1ULqPVE)

The FTSE-100 financial services group Old Mutual Plc is plotting an audacious nine billion pounds ($12.79 billion) break-up which could spark a takeover battle for some of the City's most prominent wealth management operations.

The Independent

* Local employers take fight to Gatwick over second runway plan (http://ind.pn/1OX2kgY)

Gatwick airport's claims that a 7.8 billion pounds second runway would boost business and create 120,000 jobs have been challenged by owners of local companies who fear expansion could damage them badly.

* Female retail bosses fall out of fashion

(http://ind.pn/1X5u3BW)

The number of female chief executives appointed at UK retailers fell by 40 percent last year despite pressure to improve the number of women in senior positions, according to a new report.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-07/frontrunning-march-7
 

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#11
Futures Lower On Lack Of China Stimulus; Oil Squeeze Continues; Gold Spikes Ahead Of ECB


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/07/2016 06:44 -0500


In the aftermath of last week's disappointing G-20 Shanghai summit, there was much riding on this weekend's start of the China's People's Congress, and specifically what if any stimulus announcement Beijing will make; sadly for stimulus addicts China disappointed and after the unimaginative scope of growth proposals none of which it will come remotely close to hitting, it is hardly surprising that European stocks and US equity futures have taken a leg lower, even if Chinese stocks rose and certain commodities such as Iron Ore soared overnight on hopes China will either "rationalize" capacity or at least build some more roads to nowhere. Others, such copper were less lucky.

While few will admit, what is happening is that China has effectively confirmed the current reform cycle has been a failure and is going back to square one: as Nicola Marinelli, a fund manager at Pentalpha Capital In London told Bloomberg, “China is serving more of the same solution, more stimulus, but it just makes things worse later and it’s becoming apparent that it cannot sustain the official growth rate.

Elsewhere, European banks are starting to slide now that attention turns to Thursday's ECB meeting when Mario Draghi is expected to further cut the European deposit rate by 10 to 20 bps, in the process further impairing bank profits. On this Marinelli said, “the ECB might also disappoint, GDP growth remains sub-par and we don’t know what to do about it, while a higher oil price means higher inflation soon and hence less headroom for central banks.”

Aside from equities, the oil ramp has shown some further strength overnight as "weak hand" shorts continue to be squeezed, while gold's levitation continues on concerns how other central banks will respond in the global currency war in retaliation to the ECB's further monetary easing this week.





WTI extends gains to 2 month highs after the U.S. rig count fell to lowest since Dec. 2009. Brent touches highest since Dec. amid speculation ECB will increase stimulus when it meets Thursday. "On the supply-side we are continuing to see a freefall in the rig count, which confirms what has been the U.S. supply outlook for some time that we’d see production stop gaining and decline this yr,” says Danske Bank senior analyst Jens Pedersen. “The rate the rig count has fallen means output may decline harder than what was expected."

As of this moment, according to Bloomberg, European shares fell with metals, while the dollar and German bonds climbed, as investors assessed the impact of China’s growth plans and the potential for European Central Bank stimulus measures this week. Miners led declines in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, with Glencore Plc and Anglo American Plc among the biggest losers, a turnaround from last week’s rally. Copper fell from a four-month high, while investors continued adding to gold holdings. French bonds led gains in euro-area government securities, while the euro sank on speculation the ECB will lower the deposit rate and boost bond purchases. Crude extended last week’s gains.

The Stoxx 600 was down 0.8 percent as of 11:06 a.m. London time, while copper sank 0.8 percent. The euro fell 0.5 percent to $1.0956 and yields on German 10-year bonds fell three basis points to 0.2 percent.

Where the markets stand now:

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 1986
  • Stoxx 600 down 0.9% to 339
  • FTSE 100 down 0.9% to 6145
  • DAX down 1.3% to 9695
  • German 10Yr yield down 4bps to 0.2%
  • Italian 10Yr yield down 2bps to 1.44%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield up 2bps to 1.58%
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.2% to 126
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.2% to 126
  • Nikkei 225 down 0.6% to 16911
  • Hang Seng down less than 0.1% to 20160
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 2897
  • US 10-yr yield up 3bps to 1.9%
  • Dollar Index up 0.25% to 97.59
  • WTI Crude futures up 1.1% to $36.32
  • Brent Futures up 1% to $39.10
  • Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,268
  • Silver spot up 1.2% to $15.70
Top Global News:

  • Jefferies Said to Reorganize Leveraged Finance, Promoting Walsh: Unit chief Lockhart, sponsors head Sokoloff said to leave bank. Firm looks to boost coordination between unit, joint venture
  • Wells Fargo Said to Seek Dealmaking Chief to Succeed Laughlin: Seeking a new head of mergers and acquisitions to succeed John Laughlin, who will serve as vice chairman of the business
  • United’s Munoz Returns as CEO Next Week After Heart Transplant: Chief had undergone transplant surgery in early January. ‘I’m ready to join you,’ he tells airline workers in a video
  • Apple Software Chief Warns One Phone Break-in Can Wreak Havoc: Federighi argues government order seeks to weaken security. Criminals could exploit IPhone backdoor once created
Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia where stocks traded mostly higher following last Friday's positive close on Wall St. where firm Non-Farm Payrolls figures and a resurgence in the commodities-complex boosted sentiment. ASX 200 (+0.93%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.65%) was led higher by commodities after WTI broke above the USD 36/bbl level and iron ore extended on gains to hit limit up in Shanghai. Elsewhere, Nikkei 225 (-0.44%) underperformed as large exporter names were pressured by JPY strength.

Chinese Premier Li announced a GDP growth target range of between 6.5%-7.0% for this year vs. about 7.0% target last year, which is the first time China has opted to target a growth range in 20 years. Premier Li also announced details of China's 5 year plan in which it aims for minimum growth of 6.5% annually through to 2020 and will also introduce a range of tax cuts this year. (Nikkei)

Top Asian News

  • CLOs Revived in Japan for First Time Since 2011 Amid Yield Hunt: Japan Finance Corp is set to sell 7.5b yen ($66m) of bonds backed by loans of regional banks
  • Australia Sees Resources Price Rebound as Supply Gluts Ease: Commodity demand will rebound on Asia’s urbanization, population to spur demand, Resources and Energy Minister says
  • China Said to Plan Crackdown on Loans for Home Down- Payments: Chinese regulators plan to impose new rules, as they step up scrutiny of financing risk in property markets
  • China’s Growth Addiction Leaves Deleveraging in Back Seat: Baseline of 6.5% GDP growth through 2020 curbs policy scope, more fiscal, monetary support on its way, as is more debt
  • Malaysia Palm Reserves Seen at 11-Month Low as Output Falls: Feb. production seen at lowest since 2011
Despite the apparent risk on sentiment observed over during the Asian trading session, partly in reaction to supportive comments by Chinese Premier Li, positioning ahead of key risk event meant that stocks traded lower since the get-to in Europe. At the same time, combination of profit taking and healthy scepticism by some IB names in relation to the recent upside in base metals, meant that material names underperformed on the sector breakdown. The cautious sentiment also translated into upside bias by Bunds, though Gilts have underperformed amid the ongoing Brexit concerns. Though peripheral bond yield spreads traded mixed, with GR/GE 10y wider by 5bps, while FR/GE 10y spread tightened by 1bps.

Top European News

  • EDF Finance Chief Resigns as U.K. Hinkley Point Decision Nears: Piquemal said to be worried that final decision being rushed. Executive expressed concern over financial impact of project
  • BASF Said Working With Banks to Weigh Counter-Bid for DuPont: German chemicals company said undecided whether to proceed. BASF said to have spoken to DuPont last year before Dow merger
  • Old Mutual Rises Most in Three Months on Speculation of Breakup: climbed in Johannesburg trading after the company said it’s considering all options for the business as part of a strategic review. Co. also traded in London
In FX, there are few discernible themes to note today. We would have expected some adjustment lower in the EUR pairs, but the lead spot rate dropped back from 1.1000+ highs to find fresh support in the mid 1.0900's. All eyes and ears are on the ECB meeting this week, and despite fears that policy action will not be 'enough' to appease the market, the disappointment factor is prompting EUR support already. Cable is suffering a little as EUR/GBP grinds higher — this despite the latest YouGov poll showing the 'stay in' camp maintaining a lead for 4 consecutive weeks. Pressure on USD/JPY and the respective cross rates as BoJ Kuroda continues to warn against fresh policy expectations. Spot now back in the mid 113.00's, but no real momentum on the downside to note as yet. Oil prices holding up, but the CAD off better levels along with the AUD and NZD.

The energy complex largely shrugged off downbeat sentiment that dominated the price action over the Europe, with both WTI and Brent crude futures trading higher, as the focus remained on the better than expected US data and the ongoing reduction in US rig count. Elsewhere, copper prices declined marginally from 4-month highs on profit taking, while iron ore continued to surge alongside steel rebar gains with both hitting limit up in early Shanghai trade which in turn saw Singapore iron ore futures advance over 16% amid expectations steel mills will be ramping up production.

Iranian oil official stated that Iran's oil and gas condensate exports are to hit 2mln bpd by month-end. (SHANA) Also of note, it was reported citing UAE minister stating that the state has not received an invitation for oil producers meeting.

Looking at today's event calendar, the only data of note in the US this afternoon is the January consumer credit reading.

Bulletin Headline Summary

  • Cautious sentiment dominated the price action as market participants position for the upcoming ECB policy meeting
  • EUR/USD failed to benefit from the un-wind of carry-related flow and instead the price action was dominated by pre-positioning ahead of the eagerly awaited ECB policy meeting
  • Going forward, there is little in terms of tier-1 economic releases and the price action is widely expected to remain a by-product of ECB based policy expectations
  • Treasuries lower in overnight trading with global equities dropping, WTI crude oil rises above $36/barrel ahead of this week’s ECB meeting and $56b in U.S. auctions beginning tomorrow.
  • ECB has unleashed stimulus at 10 of the 47 monetary-policy meetings since Draghi took the helm; for this week’s decision, economists in a Bloomberg survey are nearly unanimous in predicting action; For banks operating in the country to have endured negative interest rates longer than any other place on earth, last year was actually pretty good
  • German factory orders dropped 0.1% in January from the prior month, when they slid 0.2%, in a sign that a global slowdown and weak domestic pricing power may be hurting Europe’s largest economy
  • In meetings with Iranian leaders Greek Prime Minister Tsipras pressed for measures to encourage Afghan refugees currently in Iran to stay there
  • Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Monday that the impact of a sales tax increase scheduled for April 2017 would be much less than the hike in 2014 -- which sent Japan into a recession
  • China’s foreign-exchange reserves dropped by $28.6 billion to $3.2 trillion in February, its smallest decline since June, as the nation’s financial markets stabilized and policy makers took more steps toward shoring up growth
  • Persistent capital outflows from China since mid-2014 were probably driven more by local companies paying down their dollar-denominated debt -- in anticipation of a stronger U.S. currency -- than investors ditching assets, according to the BIS
  • Demand is so great for benchmark 10-year Treasuries in the $1.6 trillion market for borrowing and lending U.S. government debt, and supply so short, that the overnight repo rate on the newest 10-year note was negative 2.7% at the end of last week
  • Bill Gross said Treasuries will draw support from investors seeking alternatives to near-zero yields abroad, aiding the market as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates
  • $350m IG corporates priced Friday; week $59.225b, YTD $336.075b
  • $475m HY priced Friday, $3.65b on the week, $16.33b YTD
  • BofAML Corporate Master Index OAS 4bp lower Friday at +195, -11bp MTD, +21bp YTD; T1Y range 221/129
  • BofAML High Yield Master II OAS 20bp lower Friday at +708, -27bp MTD, +13bp YTD; T1Y range 887/438
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mostly steady; European, Asian markets lower; U.S. equity-index futures rise. WTI crude oil, gold rally, copper falls
US Event Calendaar

  • 10:00am: Labor Market Conditions Index Change, Feb., est. 1 (prior 0.4)
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $37b 3M bills, $30b 6M bills
  • 12:00pm: Fed’s Brainard speaks in Washington
  • 1:00pm: Fed’s Fischer speaks in Washington
  • 3:00pm: Consumer Credit, Jan., est $16.5b (prior $21.267b)
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

No doubt about what the big event of the week is.... Liverpool vs. Man U in the Europa League. As a warm up act we have the eagerly anticipated ECB meeting on the same day. I'm not sure if one is ever meant to feel sorry for central bankers, but this Thursday's meeting is an incredibly hard one to calibrate for a variety of reasons. Firstly the market which was in panic mode 3-4 weeks ago is slowly regaining poise partly on expectations of action from the ECB and partly on higher oil and better recent US data. So expectations had been building up in weaker markets than we're seeing now. However European data has been disappointing over this period relative to the US and inflation expectations are going lower again with lingering worries about what the recent sell-off in bank equities might mean for lending and thus growth going forward.

Like with the December meeting, expectations are high but 3 months further on the market is going to not only be sensitive to the scale of action but also the nuances. Simple standard cuts further into negative deposit rate territory could easily be seen as negative for banks and in turn the economy and markets if it's perceived to impact their profitability and thus the transmission mechanism. As Mark Wall pointed out to me even front loading/increasing QE is a risk if it flattens curves further and erodes net interest margins. On the other hand being kind to banks might be seen as counter-productive medium-term as the ECB is keen for banks to adjust to the new world and find a more sustainable business model. So although policy aimed at increasing bank profits might be good for the economy in the short-term it's hard to imagine the ECB sanctioning this without being in a deep crisis.

So where are DB's expectations given all this? Mark Wall thinks we'll see a two-tier system producing a cumulative fall in the Eonia rate of about 10bps. Note that this implies a much larger cut on the rate attached to the lowest tier. Second, his expectation is for new TLTRO auctions until the end of 2017. To further incentivise lending the ECB could decide to introduce a dedicated negative refi rate only for the TLTROs but there remains the risk that the Governing Council sees a negative refi rate as an unwarranted relief for banks. Third, the Governing Council could compromise by agreeing upon a temporary EUR 10bn acceleration in the pace of its monthly QE purchases. Mark feels his team is at the lower end of market expectations, and overall the risks are skewed towards less action. To sum up in a sentence, for the market to be happy it probably wants to see some way of prioritising credit easing over QE/simple deposit cuts.

All that to look forward to on Thursday but in the meantime the bulk of weekend’s newsflow has been focused on China and specifically the important snippets of information which have come out of the NPC. As widely expected we’ve had confirmation from the Premier Li Keqiang that the government is targeting GDP growth of between 6.5% to 7.0% this year (remember this had already been mentioned by the head of the NDRC back in January), with 6.5% also being set as the baseline rate through to 2020. In order to achieve this, the Premier is also proposing for a budgetary fiscal deficit of 3.0% of GDP this year, up from the 2.3% target last year (and 2.4% actual number). As well as this, the M2 growth target has been raised to 13% from 12% and the CPI increase is to be kept around 3%. Commenting on the announcements, DB’s Zhiwei Zhang thinks that the actual fiscal deficit and M2 growth may well exceed their targets again in 2016. Zhiwei highlights that Premier Li reiterated the government will try to avoid a massive general fiscal stimulus, but the recent policy actions seem to suggest a quite significant policy easing, including record high new loans in January, a rapid rise of bond issuance, a RRR cut and lower down payments required. This is suggesting that the overall fiscal policy stance may loosen more than the central government fiscal deficit suggests and Zhiwei is forecasting for the deficit to reach 4%, while on the monetary side he expects M2 growth to reach 14%.

Meanwhile, two announcements that have surprised Zhiwei from the work plan are the growth rates of budgetary fiscal revenue (cut to 3.0% from 5.8%) and expenditure (cut to 6.7% from 8.0%) being lower than they were in 2015, and secondly the work plan being less ambitious relative to 2015, on capital account liberalization and RMB internationalization. Zhiwei and his team maintain their growth forecast of 6.7% this year, with Q3 and Q4 in particular showing slowdown. They expect two more interest rate cuts in H2 and 3 more RRR cuts, one in each quarter beyond Q1.

Bourses in China have kick-started the week on the front foot post the weekend newsflow with the Shanghai Comp and CSI 300 up +0.78% and +0.59% respectively at the midday break, while the tech heavy Shenzhen has rallied for a +2% gain. Markets are also waiting on China’s latest FX reserves data which is due out at any stage now, while headlines this morning on Bloomberg suggesting that Chinese regulators are to stamp down on loans for house down-payments is also attracting some focus.

Elsewhere it’s a bit more mixed across the Asia region this morning. The Nikkei is down -0.47%, the Hang Seng is flat but has been volatile on the back of the news that Hong Kong residential home sales were said to have fallen 70% yoy in February, while there’s been gains for the Kospi (+0.26%) and ASX (+1.17%). Credit markets in Asia and Australia are flat to modestly tighter.

Meanwhile the US Presidential race - and specifically the Republican battle - has seen Ted Cruz pick up two victories in Kansas and Maine, with Trump taking Louisiana and Kentucky. Importantly, the victories for Cruz have seen him solidify his role as the main challenger to Trump in the Republican race in what’s looking now like a two-horse race.

Moving on. So after the whisper number had been leaning lower heading into Friday’s employment report, February nonfarm payrolls proved to be a big surprise to the upside with a robust and consensus beating +242k (vs. +195k expected) of job gains including 30k of upward revisions to prior months. In fact the number was higher than 91 of the 92 Bloomberg economist forecasts with retail and healthcare sectors leading the charge and defying that weaker ISM services employment print which had people nervous. The other good news was the U-3 unemployment rate holding steady at 4.9% as expected, the broader U-6 measure edging down two-tenths to 9.7% and the lowest since May 2008, while the labour force participation rate ticked up two-tenths to 62.9% (vs. 62.8% expected) and the highest since July 2014. It wasn’t all good news however. Notably, average hourly earnings unexpectedly declined last month by -0.1% mom (vs. +0.2% expected) which had the effect of dragging down the YoY rate by three-tenths to 2.2%. As well as this, average weekly hours worked fell from 34.6 hours to 34.4 hours. While some of the chatter blamed the softer earnings data in particular on the timing of the survey, much of the debate switched towards the slowdown in hours rather than employment being an obvious response to weak productivity.

The initial reaction in markets was for the US Dollar to rally and equities to wipe out the bulk of the day’s gains. That was until the energy markets had their daily say. WTI (+3.91%) rallied to finish up close to $36/bbl (with the latest rig count decline boosting sentiment) to cap a near 10% rally over the week, while base metals also continued their strong run on Friday with Copper (+3.55%), Nickel (+3.78%) and Iron Ore (+4.98%) all up strongly. That saw European equities bounce back into the close (Stoxx 600 +0.70%) while the S&P 500, after initially opening in the red, finished +0.33% and a whisper below the 2000 level (closed at 1999.99) for its fourth consecutive daily gain and the longest such run since October. The USD index closed -0.38% with EM currencies the big winners yet again, while 10y yields edged up 4bps to 1.874%

Meanwhile the rally in credit continued with CDX IG another 2.5bps tighter on Friday, the eight day the index has finished stronger. European credit rallied too (Main -3bps, Crossover -15bps) while in a sign of how quickly sentiment can turn, BNP Paribas issued a subordinated bond deal on Friday, the first such deal by a European financial since the volatility which swept over the sector towards the end of January. The bonds ultimately pricing at the tight end of guidance.

Away from this the only other data of note was a confirmation of a widening in the US trade deficit to $45.7bn from an upwardly revised $44.7bn in December. The Fed’s Kaplan also spoke again, saying that while he was pleased with last month’s employment report he still wants to see more evidence that the Fed will meet its inflation objective and that the Fed doesn’t have many tools left should the US fall into another recession.

Onto this week’s calendar now. Kicking off proceedings this morning in Europe is Germany where we’ll receive the January factory orders, followed closely by the latest Euro area investor confidence reading. The only data of note in the US this afternoon is the January consumer credit reading. It’s a busy morning for data in Asia tomorrow with the final revision to Q4 GDP in Japan, as well as the all important February trade numbers out of China. In Europe Germany industrial production and French trade data is due out prior to the preliminary reading for Euro area Q4 GDP (+0.3% qoq expected). It’s another quiet afternoon in the US on Tuesday with just the NFIB small business optimism print due. Wednesday is a light day for data all round with just French business sentiment and UK industrial production due in the morning, followed by the January wholesale inventories and trade sales data for the US in the afternoon. The focus of Thursday morning is in China again where we’ll get the February CPI and PPI prints, along with Japan PPI data. In Europe we’ll see German trade data and French industrial production prior to the main event of the week in the ECB monetary policy meeting in the early afternoon, with Draghi scheduled to speak after. In the US on Thursday we’ll see the latest initial jobless claims data along with February Monthly Budget Statement. We close the week on Friday in Europe with the final revision for Germany CPI in February and UK trade data. The final data of the week in the US is the February import price index.

Away from the data the only Fedspeak of note comes today when we’ll hear both Vice-Chair Fischer and Governor Brainard speak at 6pm tonight. Away from this the Euro area Finance Minister’s meeting in Brussels today may be worth keeping an eye on along with the emergency meeting between EU leaders on the refugee crisis this afternoon. We’ll also be keeping up to date with any further interesting information from the National People’s Congress in China.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...s-oil-squeeze-continues-gold-spikes-ahead-ecb
 

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Asian Metals Market Update
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
Once again there is speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in April. The higher US jobs number has increased the April probability. Global uncertainty will result in the Federal Reserve to waiting till June meeting for an interest rate hike. Next week’s FOMC statement will be hawkish. There will be a fight between bulls and bears in gold and silver.
 

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#17
Gold Running Out & EuroZone Breakup | Alasdair Macleod
Reluctant Preppers


Published on Mar 7, 2016
• What is about to happen to the supply and price of physical gold in the end-game of record global demand and dwindling liquidity?

• Where should you store your physical gold and why?

• What's the looming fate of the Eurozone, why are the risks of breakup being under-reported, and what can the average person do to prepare?

Head of Research at GoldMoney.com, Alasdair Macleod returns to Reluctant Preppers to spell out from an international perspective what's really going on with: global and regional demand for physical gold, bullion inventory, liquidity and price.

Macleod then weighs in on responsible storage options for precious metals and the major trade-offs you need to consider.

Finally, Macleod exposes the looming breakup of the EuroZone and what it means to you. You'll be glad you acquired this European insight on the global gold market now!

Subscribe (it's FREE!) to Reluctant Preppers for more ► http://bit.ly/Subscribe-Free

Channel graphics by http://JosiahJohnsonStudios.com
Promotion by http://FinanceAndLiberty.com
 

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#18
Frontrunning: March 8


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/08/2016 07:33 -0500

  • Global Stocks Drop on Renewed Concerns About China (WSJ)
  • Iron Ore's Rally Stalls as Goldman to Citigroup Forecast Retreat (BBG)
  • EU and Turkey close to groundbreaking migrant deal (FT)
  • Carney's `Brexit' Stance Under Fire as BOE Accused of Bias (BBG)
  • Oil edges lower after Kuwait dents hopes for output freeze (Reuters)
  • OECD Leading Indicators Point to Slowing Global Growth (WSJ)
  • Treasuries Rally as Japan Yields Extend Record Low on Safety Bid (BBG)
  • Germany’s Schäuble Sees No Need For Immediate Decision on Greece Payments (WSJ)
  • Justin Trudeau: The Canadian Coming for Dinner (BBG)
  • The Problem With the World’s Most Obvious Trade (WSJ)
  • Millennials Spending Power Has Hilton Weighing a 'Hostel-Like' Brand (BBG)
  • Sharapova fails drug test, Nike suspends ties (Reuters)
  • U.S. Restricts Sales to ZTE, Saying It Breached Sanctions (NYT)
  • Americans Really Don't Like Immigration, New Survey Finds (BBG)
  • Shake Shack Drops as Slowing Growth Threatens Brand Cachet (BBG)
  • German Industrial Production Surges by Most Since 2009 (BBG)


Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

- Tennis star Maria Sharapova announced on Monday that she failed a drug test at this year's Australian Open for a medication she had been taking for 10 years, that was recently banned by the World Anti-Doping Agency. (http://on.wsj.com/1puVydR)

- Donald Trump's march toward the Republican presidential nomination faces new tests on Tuesday in Michigan and Mississippi, states where rivals John Kasich and Ted Cruz are betting their regional appeal will serve as an antidote to Trump's outsider campaign. (http://on.wsj.com/1puSYVa)

- The Obama administration announced Monday that it will release casualty totals of people killed in U.S. counter-terrorism strikes abroad, in an effort to bring greater transparency to one of the most controversial aspects of the 'war on terrorism'. (http://on.wsj.com/1puT4Mi)

- Seven families in Flint, Michigan, sued Michigan Governor Rick Snyder and other state officials on Monday, alleging that they failed to take measures to protect the city's drinking water and then downplayed the severity of the lead contamination. (http://on.wsj.com/1puUx5t)

- Verizon Communications Inc will pay $1.35 million to settle an investigation with federal regulators over the wireless carrier's use of so-called supercookies, pieces of software that tracked its customers' online usage. (http://on.wsj.com/1puUMxg)

- The Justice Department on Monday asked a federal judge to reverse an earlier ruling and order Apple Inc to help extract data from an iPhone - part of a hotly contested legal dispute between Washington and Silicon Valley over issues of privacy and security. (http://on.wsj.com/1puUOVY)

- The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday reinstated a lesbian woman's adoption of her former partner's biological children, rebuking the Alabama Supreme Court for invalidating the woman's parental rights. (http://on.wsj.com/1puUqXr)

- Outstanding consumer credit, a measure of non-real estate debt, rose by a seasonally adjusted $10.54 billion in January from the prior month, the U.S. Federal Reserve said Monday. The 3.58 percent seasonally adjusted annual growth rate was the slowest growth pace since March 2013; in dollar terms, it was the smallest increase since November 2013. (http://on.wsj.com/1puUXIX)



FT

* A poll conducted by the Electoral Reform Society has found that only one-in-six people felt well-informed about the upcoming Brexit referendum. The British voters don't feel well informed and are asking for more businesses to talk on the issue.

* The Bank of England will offer an additional three indexed long-term repo (ILTR) operations in the weeks around Britain's June 23 referendum on membership of the European Union, it said on Monday.

* A unknown investor has built up about five percent stake in fashion company Burberry which has prompted the brand to ask for help from its financial advisers for defence against any potential takeover bid.

* Mapletree Investments, the property arm of Singapore's state investment fund Temasek, has acquired a portfolio of UK student accommodation for 417 million pounds ($594.43 million), fending off competition of bidders from the US, Russia and the Middle East.



NYT

- Chinese phone maker ZTE Corp will be blocked from buying any technology from U.S. companies without a special license as the company was found to have violated American sanctions against Iran by selling U.S-made goods to the country. (http://nyti.ms/21UOIPS)

- Wall Street bonuses are down for the second straight year, and recent market volatility and cutbacks suggest that 2016 is shaping up to be a difficult year, according to the New York State comptroller. (http://nyti.ms/21UPlsI)

- Hedge fund Visium Asset Management told investors on Monday that it is being investigated by the U.S. Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission. (http://nyti.ms/21UPmwS)

- New rules from British regulators can act as a guide for how to hold senior managers accountable when their companies violate regulatory requirements. (http://nyti.ms/21UR1mi)



Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** The Canadian government's plans to address rail safety in the upcoming federal budget are coming under heightened scrutiny amid new revelations about the Lac-Mégantic rail disaster, which killed 47 people in 2013, but could have been prevented by a simple 10-second safety procedure.(http://bit.ly/1QzJAID)

** Surging crude prices pushed Canadian oil and gas stocks to three-month highs on Monday, but investors bitten for more than a year by short-lived gains are wary of calling an end to the downturn.(http://bit.ly/1p4n3tW)

** A senior United Nations official is calling on Canada to reach out to the Nigerian government and offer logistical and intelligence services to help find more than 200 Nigerian schoolgirls abducted by Boko Haram nearly two years ago.(http://bit.ly/1RPIMzI)

NATIONAL POST

** Malaysia's Petronas is frustrated that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's climate-change priorities are introducing new uncertainty for its proposed C$36 billion ($27 billion) Pacific NorthWest LNG project in northern British Columbia and has threatened to walk away if it doesn't get federal approval by March 31, according to a source close to the project.(http://bit.ly/1QzKcOg)

** Companies are wiggling out of money-losing contracts to buy electricity from coal-fired power plants in Alberta as a result of the province's new climate change policies, leaving a provincial agency to honor the agreements. TransCanada Corp , a company best known for building pipelines but that also has a power business, cited a recent change in Alberta's climate laws in order to terminate contracts to buy coal-fired electric power from Atco Ltd and TransAlta Corp .(http://bit.ly/1UPjc0n)



Britain

The Times

EDF finance chief resigns over Hinkley Point

The financial director of Électricité de France has resigned over a disagreement about the French utility's plans to build the Hinkley Point nuclear power plant in Britain. (http://thetim.es/1LaNsRf)

Search for the mystery investor in Burberry

Burberry Group Plc is trying to find out the identity of a mystery investor who has built up a stake of about 5 per cent in the luxury retail group. The British brand, known for its check scarves and trenchcoats, is understood to have asked HSBC, which is listed as the custodian for the position, to disclose the identity of the investor. (http://thetim.es/1TFTGvF)

The Guardian

Stagecoach loses court case over 11 mln stg tax avoidance scheme

A complex tax avoidance scheme being used by transport group Stagecoach Group Plc to wipe 11 mln pounds off its tax bill has been defeated in the tax courts. In a 56-page ruling, a judge, Gordon Reid QC, found that the scheme, devised with the help of tax experts at KPMG, fell foul of tax avoidance legislation. The scheme involved shifting money between companies within the Stagecoach group to create a large loss in one of them without a corresponding gain in any other. (http://bit.ly/1X6Ohvi)

The Telegraph

BHS sends shockwaves through high street with warning it could collapse owing 1.3 bln stg

BHS has warned its creditors that they stand to lose as much as 1.3 bln pounds if they do not agree to a drastic turnaround plan this month. (http://bit.ly/1X8bT2E)

Microsoft plans to close UK games studio Lionhead

Microsoft Corp is planning to close the UK video games developer that helped establish its Xbox console as a major player in the gaming world, putting almost 100 jobs at risk. (http://bit.ly/21TYbXZ)

Barclays hires nine M&A executives to bolster investment bank

Barclays Plc has hired top mergers and acquisitions banker Carlo Calabria and eight of his colleagues from CMC Capital to bolster its investment bank. Calabria will become chairman of M&A in Europe, the Middle East and Africa at the bank. (http://bit.ly/1puHTTY)

Sky News

Heathrow Lands Ex-Treasury Minister Deighton

The owner of Britain's biggest airport will seek to bolster its chances of adding new runway capacity on Tuesday when it names the former Treasury minister Lord Deighton as its new chairman. (http://bit.ly/1pbNlLI)

Bank Of England's Cash Plan For EU Referendum

The Bank of England is putting in place precautions to ensure sterling markets keep working smoothly around the time of the EU referendum by giving lenders access to extra cash. (http://bit.ly/1TFSSqr)


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-08/frontrunning-march-8
 

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#19
Bears Exit Hibernation As Rally Fizzles On Dismal Chinese Trade Data; Commodities Slide; Gold Higher


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/08/2016 06:49 -0500

Those algos who scrambled to paint yesterday's closing tape with that last second VIX slam sending the S&P back over 2,000, forgot one thing - the same thing that China also ignored - central bankers can not print trade, something we have repeated since 2011. The world got a harsh reminder of this last night when China reported the third largest drop in exports in history, which crashed by over 25%, the third biggest drop on record, and no, it was not just the base effect from last February's spike, as otherwise the combined January-February data would offset each other, instead it was a joint disaster, meaning one can't blame the Lunar New Year either. In short, one can't really blame anything aside from the real culprit: despite all the lipstick that has been put on it, global trade is grinding to a halt.

This, together with fresh record low (and mostly negative) yields along Japan's JGB curve, brought the risk off sentiment out of hibernation, and have sent the USDJPY sliding in overnight trading, and dragging European stocks and U.S. equity futures down with it.

Furthermore, after Goldman doubled-down on its bearish call on commodities, the sector has taken a deep breather after yesterday's surge, and while crude oil has dipped by about 1%,iIron-ore futures on the Singapore Exchange fell 8.8% after yesterday's record 19% jump on Monday. Citigroup Inc. said it’s still bearish as supply and demand fundamentals remain weak, while Axiom Capital Management Inc. said the price surge was probably just a “blip.”

Promptly bearish commentators came out of the woodwork, first in Asia...



"If they can’t get stocks right, how are they going to get the trickier puzzle of SOE reform right?” Michael Every, the head of financial markets research at Rabobank Group in Hong Kong, who correctly predicted the tumble in Chinese equities told Bloomberg. "The government’s attempts have been a total failure, leading to a huge drop in confidence among investors.”

... and then in Europe:



"We are still in the process where we’re trying to find the bottom and I don’t think we are there yet,” said Ralf Zimmermann, a strategist at Bankhaus Lampe in Dusseldorf, Germany. “There had been, with the recent rebound, some optimism that we were out of the woods. The Chinese trade data is a reminder that the path for the business cycle ahead is pretty rocky and bumpy."

As a result, global equities’ five-day winning streak has, as of this moment, come to a halt. Japanese government bonds surged in a haven-asset rally that also lifted the yen, gold and Treasuries.

In summary, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index extended its decline from a five-week high as investors sold equities that had led the recent rebound, while Brent crude slid after closing on Monday above $40 a barrel for the first time this year. Industrial metals sank and iron ore fell as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted gains in commodities would falter. A jump in Japanese bonds that sent yields to record lows helped boost Treasuries and European debt. The yen strengthened against all of its 31 major peers and gold climbed to a 13-month high.

However one bearish commodity which never went into hibernation and which has been rising even alongside stocks, has been gold, and as the following Bloomberg chart shows, "gold rally belies confidence in stocks" having outperformed global equities.



Perhaps "gold vigilantes" are the new bond vigilantes?

* * *

Where global markets stand now:

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.8% to 1985
  • Stoxx 600 down 1.4% to 336
  • FTSE 100 down 0.8% to 6130
  • DAX down 1.4% to 9642
  • German 10Yr yield down 6bps to 0.17%
  • Italian 10Yr yield down 3bps to 1.43%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield down 2bps to 1.57%
  • S&P GSCI Index up less than 0.1% to 324.4
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.7% to 125
  • Nikkei 225 down 0.8% to 16783
  • Hang Seng down 0.7% to 20012
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 2901
  • S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 5108
  • US 10-yr yield down 7bps to 1.84%
  • Dollar Index down 0.04% to 97.03
  • WTI Crude futures down 0.8% to $37.60
  • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $40.60
  • Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,276
  • Silver spot up 0.1% to $15.66
Top Globa News

  • Michael Bloomberg Says He Won’t Run for President in 2016: Decided against running out of concern that his entry could benefit Republican front-runner Donald Trump
  • Wells Fargo Said to Join Swaps Revival as Funds Clamor to Hedge: Bank plans to trade derivatives known as single-name credit default swaps with clients as soon as next quarter.
  • Vale, Fortescue Game-Changing Deal to Shake Up Big Iron Ore: Pact includes plans to develop joint ventures to create about ~80mt-100mt per year of blended product.
  • Pimco Says Time to Buy Riskier Debt as U.S. to Avoid Recession: Pimco says high-quality company debt, junk bonds, bank loans offer a better risk-adjusted alternative.
  • Goldman Says Commodity Rally a False Start, Will Fizzle: rally in commodities from iron ore to gold will falter; forecasts copper, aluminum prices will slide as much as 20% over next year.
  • Nike Suspends Ties With Sharapova After She Fails Drug Test: Co. suspended ties with after she failed a drug test at the Australian Open.
Looking at regional equity markets, we start in Asia where stocks traded negative with sentiment dampened following a contraction in Japanese GDP figures (Japanese GDP SA (Q4 F) Q/Q -0.30% vs. Exp. -0.40% vs Prey. -0.40%) and weak Chinese Trade data. Nikkei 225 (-0.76%) was pressured following soft Japanese GDP which showed the economy contracted by an annualised 1.1 %, while JPY strength also added to the downbeat tone.ASX 200 (-0.53%) failed to sustain the commodity-led gains amid profit-taking in the sector and weakness in financials. The Shanghai Comp (+0.1%) initially traded lower after weak Chinese trade data in which exports declined wider than expected, while some analysts also noted disappointment regarding a lack of significant measures announced at the NPC so far. However, losses were pared heading into the European open. 10yr JGBs rose as the risk-averse tone underpinned demand while today also saw a strong 30yr JGB auction where the b/c printed at its highest since May 2014 as participants hunt for positive yields. Recapping China's trade data, the February Trade Balance came in at CNY M/M 209.50B vs. Exp. 341.00B (Prey. 406.20B)

  • Exports (CNY) (Feb) Y/Y -20.60% vs. Exp. -11.30% (Prey. -6.60%)
  • Imports (CNY) (Feb) Y/Y -8.00% vs. Exp. -11.70% (Prey. -14.40%)
In Europe, sentiment this morning has been guided lower by downbeat data from overnight, with Japanese GDP and Chinese trade balance readings failing to inspire confidence in financial markets . As such, European equities trade firmly in negative territory (Euro Stoxx: -1.3%), with the materials sector the most significantly impacted by China concerns. As such, the usual culprits of Anglo American, BHP Billiton, Glencore are among the worst performers, while Burberry are among the best performers after the FT reported that the Co. are looking for help to defend against a potential takeover. In line with the softness seen in equities, Bunds have seen strength so far today, with the June'16 contract strengthening by over 50 ticks to rise back above 163.00. Analysts at IFR suggest model driven accounts are lifting both Bunds and Gilts, while Japanese buying of core/mid-tier markets is evident in 10Y OATs.

Top European News

  • Burberry Surges on Speculation Trenchcoat Maker May Attract Bid: Co. asked advisers at Robey Warshaw to help prepare for bid after mystery investor built up ~5% stake: FT.
  • German Industrial Production Surges by Most Since 2009: Production, adjusted for seasonal swings, climbed 3.3% m/m.
  • RWE Posts Loss at U.K. Business After Customer Defections: U.K. unit is to cut 2,400 jobs as it reported FY loss after billing system failures, departure of >350,000 utility customers.
  • Apple’s Clash With FBI Risks Piercing Trust in EU Privacy Shield: EU privacy regulators promised to give their verdict next month on so-called privacy shield deal.
  • EU Nears Migrant Cap Deal as Turkey Raises Its Asking Price: Turkish PM called on EU to double its financial aid to Turkey to EU6b.
In FX, after some volatile moves in NY and Tokyo, the early European session has been much more contained in FX, though notable is the heavy tone in spot and cross JPY, while the AUD now looks to be on the back foot after some decent data led strength of late. USD/JPY lows have so far reached just shy of 112.70, but so far, all recovery attempts have come up against decent offers through 113.00. AUD/USD stopped shy of .7500 yesterday, and now looks under threat of testing the lows from yesterday to dent a potential move to recent .7700+ projections. The USD index is pretty stable as a result, with EUR looking buoyant against the greenback, with further potential seen on the upside despite anticipated policy action from the ECB; the crosses also recovering off recent lows. GBP is looking heavy also, with the upper 1.4200's well offered in Cable. WTI/Oil gains capped, turning USD/CAD back onto the 1.3300's.

China’s yuan climbed 0.17 percent as the central bank raised its daily reference rate for the currency following Monday data that showed a slide in the nation’s foreign-exchange reserves moderated in February. The currencies of raw-material producing nations slumped, led by South Africa’s rand dropping more than 1 percent. New Zealand’s dollar fell 0.7 percent, while Australia’s slid 0.5 percent.

The yen gained for a second day. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told parliament on Monday he doesn’t think additional stimulus is needed at the present time. “The yen is gaining partly because Kuroda is denying imminent further easing,” said Shinichiro Kadota, a foreign-exchange strategist at Barclays Plc in Tokyo. “That’s effectively telling speculative players to go ahead and buy the yen.”

In commodities, oil prices pulled back from yesterday's best levels with WTI back below USD 38/bbl level amid weak Chinese trade data. Gold retreated from near 13-month highs to trade flat and copper prices were also pressured from weak China data, while Dalian iron ore futures continued its upward trend to hit limit up at the open following yesterday's largest gain in spot iron ore prices on record.

In commodities, Iron-ore futures on the Singapore Exchange fell 8.8 percent, after a record 19 percent jump on Monday. Citigroup Inc. said it’s still bearish as supply and demand fundamentals remain weak, while Axiom Capital Management Inc. said the price surge was probably just a “blip.” Copper fell 1 percent in London, trimming this month’s advance to 5.4 percent. Nickel slid 2.8 percent, retreating from its highest close since November. Goldman Sachs reiterated its view that the drivers for last year’s slump in industrial metals prices remain intact, predicting drops of as much as 20 percent for copper and aluminum over the next 12 months.

Gold last week entered a bull market -- commonly defined as a 20 percent advance from the most recent low -- and platinum and palladium followed suit on Monday. Platinum rose 0.2 percent on Tuesday, while palladium dropped 1.8 percent. Brent crude slipped 0.5 percent in London to 40.65 a barrel, after surging 5.5 percent on Monday. It has advanced more than 40 percent since slumping to a 12-year low in January amid speculation a proposal by major producers to freeze production will trim a global glut. Data on Wednesday is forecast to show U.S. stockpiles increased last week to the highest level since 1930.

On today's thin US calendar we have last month’s NFIB small business optimism survey reading as only release of note, which moments ago printed at 92.9, below January's 93.9 and below the expected rebound to 94.0.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • European bourses take the lead from their Asian counterparts as soft Japanese GDP and Chinese trade data dictates the state of play
  • In FX, JPY has been a beneficiary of the risk-averse tone with USD/JPY breaking back below 113.00 while commodity currencies face selling pressure
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US API data, BoE's Weale and US 3yr Note Auction
  • Treasuries higher in overnight trading, global equities sell off after China’s exports tumbled 25.4%, the biggest decline since May 2009; week’s auctions begin with $24b 3Y notes, WI 1.065% vs 0.844% in Feb., was lowest 3Y auction stop since 0.802% in March 2014.
    Mark Carney was accused of jeopardizing the Bank of England’s credibility in the EU debate as pro-“Brexit” lawmaker Jacob Rees-Mogg said the central bank’s report on the topic supported the government’s position of remaining part of the bloc
  • An increase in investment and higher domestic spending helped propel the euro-area to its 11th successive quarter of growth as overall the economy grew 0.3% in the fourth quarter
  • German industrial production in January climbed 3.3% from the prior month, the most in more than six years, in a sign that strong domestic demand may be helping to underpin output even as external trade cools
  • European Union leaders edged toward an agreement with Turkey to halt the inflow of migrants, with the Turkish government jacking up the price for serving as the EU’s defensive barrier
  • Cyprus FM Georgiades said he’s confident in his country’s ability to access the bond market, after the government won the blessing of its European partners and the IMF to exit a three-year-old aid program with no safety net
  • Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire former three-term mayor of New York, said he’s decided against entering the 2016 presidential race. Bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP
  • $11.52b IG corporates priced yesterday; MTD volume $53.345b, YTD $347.595b
  • No HY priced yesterday, $3.65b priced last week, $16.33b YTD
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mostly lower led by Greece (-39bp); European, Asian markets lower; U.S. equity-index futures drop. WTI crude oil, copper fall, gold rallies
US Event Calendar

  • 6:00am: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Falls to 92.9; Est. 94, Last 93.9
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $60b 4W bills
  • 1:00pm: U.S. to sell $24b 3Y notes
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I was a bit confused about yesterday. Markets were seemingly weak early on due to perceived disappointment about the scale of China's fiscal impetus discussed over the weekend at the NPC even though our own Zhiwei Zhang thought it was in line with expectations. However in parallel Iron Ore was catapulted 18.59% higher (the largest single day gain with daily data going back to 2009) on hopes that the weekend showed China's willingness to boost economic growth. Go figure.

In fact, Iron Ore has been one of the most impressive performing commodities this year and with yesterday’s move is now up 46% YTD so far as well as a massive 66% from the record lows made back on December 11th last year. Much of the commentary suggested yesterday’s move reflected to some degree a replenishing of Chinese steel mills supplies ahead of the ramping up of the summer construction season, as well as aggressive moves in Steel prices in expectation of demand recovery triggered by property policies and also abundant liquidity in the system. While similar commentary still remains cautious on the sustainability of such gains for now, further news overnight of a possible joint-venture of sorts between two of the biggest four producers, Fortescue and Vale, is keeping the market squarely in the spotlight for now.

Not to be outdone, Oil markets also continued their strong surge of late yesterday. WTI and Brent rallied +5.51% and +5.48% respectively with the former closing back in on $38/bbl and the latter ending the day back above $40/bbl for first time since December 9th. Sentiment was boosted after the news of another drop in the number of operating rigs last month while expectations continue to build ahead of a potential meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC producers later this month. In fact, the latest move has now seen WTI move into positive YTD territory (+2.21%) for the first time this year with Brent (+9.55%) already well through that level.

In fact, it’s now proving harder to find a commodity which isn’t posting positive YTD returns. Copper (+6.27%), Aluminium (+6.14%), Nickel (+6.41%) and Zinc (+12.52%) are all up for the year helped by the big rally this month, while even more impressive have been moves in precious metals with the well documented move for Gold (+19.50%) this year in particular eye-catching. Silver (+13.00%) is also up strongly while Platinum (+11.85%) and Palladium (+2.38%) have now entered bull markets. The laggards to the rally have come in agriculture with the likes of Corn, Wheat, Sugar and Cotton down single digits still. In any case, some staggering moves considering the extent of the selloff earlier this year.

So, despite that bumper day across commodity markets yesterday, declines across tech and consumer names tempered any hope for a material equity market rally. That said, the S&P 500 (+0.09%) did manage to nudge into positive territory by the close of play, bringing its run of consecutive daily gains to five now and matching the run made in October last year. Prior to this, a rough day for Italian Banks saw European equities edge lower however, with the Stoxx 600 closing -0.25% and Italian equity market down -1.20%, while credit markets on both sides of the pond enjoyed a marginally better day.
Glancing at our screens this morning, despite the commodity rally yesterday it’s been a rough start across most bourses in Asia with some softer than expected trade numbers out of China having their say. With regards to the data, China’s exports (in US Dollar terms) declined a much greater than expected -25.4% yoy (vs. -14.5% expected) in February, down from -11.2% in January and only slightly less than the record contraction back in May 2009 (of -26.4%). Imports also tumbled more than expected (-13.8% yoy vs. -12.0% expected) although that contraction was less than that seen in January. All told the data has seen the trade surplus shrink to $32.6bn from $63.3bn. The data in CNY terms shows a similar pattern with exports down -20.6% yoy (vs. -11.3% expected) and to a record low.

Bourses in China were already trading with a soft tone with the Shanghai Comp tumbling as low as -3.37% prior to the data, although it has rebounded into the midday break, albeit still down -1.55% on the day. The CSI 300 is -1.69%, while the Hang Seng is -0.74%, Kospi -0.68% and ASX -0.68%. In Japan the Nikkei is down -0.51% despite the second read of Japan’s Q4 GDP print being revised up unexpectedly by one-tenth to -0.3% qoq. Oil markets have receded a percent or so, while US equity futures are down half a percent.

Moving on. Yesterday’s Fedspeak offered two very differing opinions ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Fed Vice-Chair Fischer played down the suggestion that the link between strong employment and inflation was broken, saying that although the link has never been very strong, ‘it exists and we may well at present be seeing the first stirrings of an increase in the inflation rate’. Meanwhile, speaking at a separate conference in Washington, Fed Governor Brainard opined that ‘I am heartened by the continued strong progress on employment and the resilience of American consumers, which stand against a considerably more challenging global backdrop’. That said, she also warned that ‘we should not take the strength in the US labour market and consumption for granted’ and that ‘sources of robust demand around the globe are few, and sources of weakness relatively greater’. Brainard also cautioned that ‘tighter financial conditions and softer inflation expectations may pose risks to the downside for inflation and domestic activity’ and that ‘from a risk-management perspective, this argues for patience as the outlook becomes clearer’.

Away from the Fedspeak, yesterday’s economic dataflow was fairly quiet. In the US we saw the February labour market conditions index fall 1.6pts last month to a below market -2.4 (vs. +1.0 expected) which is in stark contrast to Friday’s employment report. In fact the reading was the lowest since June 2009 and the first back-to-back monthly drop since 2012. Post the closing bell we learned that US consumer credit in January rose by the least since May 2012 ($10.54bn vs. $17bn expected), with revolving credit (which includes credit cards) recording the first decline since February 2015. In Europe the main data of note was out of Germany where factory orders declined by less than expected in January (-0.1% mom vs. -0.3% expected). The Euro area Sentix investor confidence reading printed down 0.5pts this month at 5.5 and nearly 3pts below expectations.

Just before we look at the day ahead, a quick update on the migrant crisis talks in Brussels where a proposal is being debated between Turkey and the EU in which Turkey will accept the re-admission of migrants in exchange for further financial aid, visa-liberalisation for Turkish citizens and also a recommencing of EU accession talks. As per the BBC, the EU is demanding that Turkey take back migrants who fail to qualify for asylum and in return Turkey is demanding the EU to accept one Syrian refugee for every migrant taken back. Talks are set to resume ahead of the migration summit on 17th-18th March.

Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we’ll be kicking off in Germany where the January industrial production data is due, shortly followed by French trade data. Later this morning we’ll receive the second reading on Q4 GDP for the Euro area (no change expected to the initial +0.3% qoq estimate) along with a breakdown of the components. The calendar is fairly thin again in the US this afternoon with last month’s NFIB small business optimism survey reading the only release of note. The BoE’s Carney and Cunliffe testifying to UK lawmakers (at 9.15am GMT) on Britain’s referendum on EU membership is worth keeping an eye on too.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...smal-chinese-trade-data-commodities-slide-gol
 

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#21

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#22
Gold and Silver Market Morning: March-7-2016 - Gold building with solid, small rises!
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch
Gold closed in New York at $1,268.00 up from $1,260.80 in New York on Monday. In Asia on Tuesday, it moved higher to $1,274 and then in London until the LBMA price setting was set at $1,274.10 up from $1,267.60 yesterday. The dollar index is slightly lower at 97.17 down from 97.61 on Monday.
 

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#23

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#24
Shipping & Energy 03/08:

Peak Oil Review - Mar 7
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2016-03-07/peak-oil-review-mar-7

Peak oil in the South China Sea (part 1)
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2016-03-08/peak-oil-in-the-south-china-sea-part-1

China says South China Sea among world's freest shipping lanes
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-southchinasea-idUSKCN0WA0ER

South Korea Bans Ships Calling at Northern Ports Under New Sanctions
http://gcaptain.com/south-korea-bans-ships-calling-at-north-ports-under-new-sanctions/

Transocean’s Five High-Spec Jackups Delayed at Keppel
http://gcaptain.com/transocean-and-keppel-agree-to-delay-delivery-of-four-high-spec-jackups/

After Chevron's Mega-Project, Smaller Is Better in Energy
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ega-project-smaller-is-better-in-energy-realm

CMA CGM Expects Market-beating Container Volumes Again This Year
http://www.marinelink.com/news/marketbeating-container406258.aspx

Seadrill Surges as Short Wagers Squeezed Amid Bailout Talk
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-as-short-positions-squeezed-by-bailout-talk

$4.3B: Daewoo Shipbuilding has Record Loss
http://www.marinelink.com/news/shipbuilding-daewoo406274.aspx

Finland’s Wärtsilä admits manipulation of ship engine fuel tests
http://www.themeditelegraph.com/en/...-fuel-tests-1yfnecPlgWjI2dlts0kcmM/index.html

Iran Oil Lands in Europe for First Time Since Sanctions End
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...n-europe-for-first-time-since-sanctions-ended

Oil Prices Fall As U.S. Inventory Build Seems Inevitable
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...l-As-US-Inventory-Build-Seems-Inevitable.html

[Photos] Huge Weapons Seizure from Boat Heading to Somalia
http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/huge-weapons-seizure-from-boat-heading-to-somalia
 

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#26
Will Gold Go Parabolic | Nick Santiago
FinanceAndLiberty.com


Published on Mar 8, 2016
Nick Santiago has been an astute market observer and trader for many years. Now he's guardedly optimistic about precious metals. He'd like to see gold trade sideways for a while, which he believes will set up the next advance. He's thinking that $1400 by the year's end isn't unrealistic. But either way, Nick will be trading a downward trending stock market and he doesn't see much good in the offing for oil either.

This video was posted with permission from http://FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com

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#28
For Trump, Gold Is Better Than Cash
By: Randy Desoto
Is gold better than cash? Donald Trump accepted three bars of it as a security deposit when a new tenant moved into his 40 Wall Street property in New York’s financial district. Michael Haynes, chief executive of APMEX, the tenant, convinced the real estate mogul that accepting gold offered the greatest security for him. “I figured, Trump is a smart guy, and he’ll realize that taking gold is a better idea than taking cash.”


Peddling Fiction, Ignoring Fact
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital
In his seventh, and final, State of the Union address this January, President Obama, clearly looking to bolster his legacy as the president who vanquished the Great Recession, boldly asserted that "Anyone claiming that America's economy is in decline is peddling fiction." Unfortunately for the President, more and more Americans seem to believe (with an adequate basis in proof) that the fiction is emanating from the White House.


Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall With Stocks and Oil
By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com
Gold gained $10.84 to $1278.04 in London, but it then chopped back lower in New York and ended near its late session low of $1260.28 with a loss of 0.46%. Silver slipped to as low as $15.331 and ended with a loss of 1.79%.
 

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#29
Gregory Mannarino-System Already Failed & Coming Apart
Greg Hunter


Published on Mar 8, 2016
Financial analyst and trader Gregory Mannarino thinks the coming market crash will be especially bad for people not awake or prepared. Mannarino says, “This is going to get a lot worse. On an individual level, we have to understand what we have to do for ourselves and our families to get through this. No matter what is happening on the political front, there is no stopping what is coming. . . . We’re going back to a two-tier society. We are seeing it happen. The middle class is being systematically destroyed. We are going to have a feudal system of the haves and the have nots. People walking around blindly thinking it’s going to be okay are going to suffer the worst.”

Mannarino’s advice is to “Bet against this debt, and that means hold hard assets; also, become your own central bank. Their system has already failed and it’s coming apart.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Gregory Mannarino of TradersChoice.net.
 

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#30
Frontrunning: March 9


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/09/2016 07:34 -0500


  • Angry White Males Propel Donald Trump—and Bernie Sanders (WSJ)
  • Trump Beats Back Attacks and Tightens Hold on Primary Race (BBG)
  • Fed Likely to Stand Pat on Rates, Keep Options Open for April or June (Hilsenrath)
  • Draghi Stimulus Fails in Stock Market as Swings Match 2008 (BBG)
  • Sabine Oil wins pipeline ruling in a blow to pipeline operators (Reuters)
  • U.S. Officials Propose Test Program Aimed at Lowering Medicare Drug Costs (WSJ)
  • Death of a Shale Man: The Final Days of Aubrey McClendon (BBG)
  • North Korea's Kim says country has miniaturised nuclear warheads (Reuters)
  • China May Face Japan-Like Slump Unless Yuan Weakens, KKR Says (BBG)
  • Saudi Arabia seeks $6-8 billion bank loan to shore up state coffers (Reuters)
  • Manipulation or Brilliant Trade? The Curious Case of Don Wilson (BBG)
  • Biden says his family was near scene of Tel Aviv attack (Reuters)
  • Russia running out of time for Rio, says Pound (Reuters)
  • UBS, Deutsche Bank Escaped Bonus Taxes Like Houdini, Judges Say (BBG)
  • Police shot Oregon protester in back but act was 'justified': prosecutor (Reuters)
  • U.S. Airlines Review Capacity Plans as Average Fares Drop (WSJ)
  • Norway Wealth Fund Isn't Joining Global Stock Selloff, CEO Says (BBG)
  • French soccer body's office searched in Blatter investigation (Reuters)
  • Experts perplexed over why Sharapova was taking banned heart drug (Reuters)
  • United CEO Survives Heart Transplant to Find Board Fight Waiting (BBG)


Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

- The Obama administration is proposing a test program to see if lowering reimbursements for drugs administered by some Medicare doctors would prompt them to choose lower-cost, but equally effective medications. (http://on.wsj.com/1LQiUV0)

- U.S. airlines are starting to review their capacity plans in the wake of a continuing drop in average fares, with the decline in ticket prices outpacing the slide in fuel costs. (http://on.wsj.com/1LQkkis)

- Federal officials Tuesday released a draft plan to expand a $9.25-a-month phone subsidy for low-income people to include broadband Internet service. The plan, tentatively announced in mid-2015, is aimed at helping bridge a potentially worrisome divide between higher-income and lower-income households when it comes to Internet access. (http://on.wsj.com/1LQjB0D)

- The possibility of a New Jersey Transit strike next week has forced some New York City businesses to draw up contingency plans - from car pooling to telecommuting - for employees who rely on the railroad to get to work. (http://on.wsj.com/1LQjWjX)

- Federal Reserve officials are likely to hold short-term interest rates steady at their policy meeting next week and leave open ended, when they will next raise rates given their uncertainties about markets and global growth. (http://on.wsj.com/1LQkyGb)

- Gordon Bethune - former boss of one of the airlines that merged to form United Continental Holdings Inc - says he wants to be the chairman of the struggling carrier's board, joining two hedge funds waging a battle for control of the board. (http://on.wsj.com/1LQnGSz)

- China is poised to overtake the U.S. as the biggest movie market in the world while regulators probe whether distributors are buying tickets in bulk to boost box-office totals. (http://on.wsj.com/1LQotTo)

- The Canadian unit of Exxon Mobil Corp said Tuesday it has agreed to sell its remaining company-owned retail gas stations in Canada to five fuel distributors. Imperial Oil Ltd said the deal for 497 Esso-branded outlets across Canada is worth C$2.8 billion ($2.08 billion). (http://on.wsj.com/1LQoFC9)

- Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc is in discussions to add as many as three new directors to its board as the drugmaker seeks to reassure investors, according to people familiar with the matter. (http://on.wsj.com/1LQoHKp)



FT

* German bank Berlin Hyp on Tuesday issued 500 million euros of covered bonds with no coupon and priced to yield minus 0.162 percent, becoming the first non-state borrower to issue euro- denominated debt at a negative yield.

* Lagardere's chief financial officer, Dominique D' Hinnin, is to depart the French media group, a move that could spark a power tussle among its remaining executives.

* France has opened a formal investigation into suspected "aggravated fraud" by Volkswagen following revelations the German carmaker rigged vehicle diesel emissions tests, the Paris prosecutor's office said on Tuesday.



NYT

- German prosecutors said on Tuesday that they had expanded their investigation into the illegal manipulation of tailpipe emissions by Volkswagen AG, raising the number of suspects to 17, from six. (http://nyti.ms/21YcudQ)

- An appeals court on Tuesday denied a request by Tom Hayes, a former trader at Citigroup Inc and UBS Group AG , to ask Britain's highest court to review his conviction in August for conspiring to manipulate a global benchmark interest rate known as Libor. (http://nyti.ms/21YczOG)

- After years of seeing United Continental Holdings struggle, two hedge funds have begun an insurrection against the airline's board - and have turned to Gordon Bethune, former chief executive of Continental Airlines, to lead the charge. (http://nyti.ms/21YcOt9)

- An unregistered investment adviser with a criminal past and an interest in the wine business is facing fraud charges by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has accused him of going to extraordinary lengths to hide his past from investors and make his firm appear legitimate. (http://nyti.ms/21Yfozh)

- Marcelo Odebrecht, the former chief executive of Brazil's largest construction company Odebrecht SA, was convicted of corruption and money laundering on Tuesday. He was sentenced to more than 19 years in prison by the Brazilian judge who is leading the wide-ranging investigation into corruption at the state-owned oil company, Petrobras. (http://nyti.ms/21YfK92)



Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Imperial Oil Ltd has reached a deal to sell 497 Esso-brand retail gas stations to five fuel distributors for $2.8 billion, as the company seeks to focus on its expanding oil sands and refining businesses.(http://bit.ly/1p7h5sg)

** The Liberal Canadian government has placed Transport Canada under special oversight for repeatedly missing internal financial targets - a highly unusual move targeting a federal department. (http://bit.ly/1QCO9Sz)

** Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President Barack Obama are expected to commit their two countries to slash methane emissions from the oil and gas industry by at least 40 per cent as part of a bilateral approach to curb climate change.(http://bit.ly/1RQXPZV)

NATIONAL POST

** United Airlines has ordered another 25 aircraft from Boeing Co, virtually killing Bombardier Inc's hopes of selling the CSeries to the big U.S. carrier. United said Tuesday that it will supplement its previously announced order for 40 narrow-body 737-700 jets with 25 more.(http://bit.ly/1QLb5wR)

** The federal consumer agency is sounding warning bells about the growing debt Canadians are taking on through auto loans. Consumers have been taking advantage of stretched amortization periods in recent years to take on more debt without increasing their monthly payments, the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada revealed Tuesday in a research report tracking market trends. (http://bit.ly/1Lcz8Yz)



Britain

The Times

Deutsche Boerse races to seal London Stock Exchange deal before US rivals bid

Deutsche Boerse AG is closing in on a deal to merge with the London Stock Exchange Group Plc within days, unless there is a counterbid from America. The "merger of equals" could be agreed as soon as the end of next week. (http://thetim.es/1Rz3C3y)

The Guardian

Volkswagen may cut jobs to pay for emissions scandal

Volkswagen AG may have to cut jobs in the United States and Europe, depending on how much it is fined for manipulating diesel emissions tests, a company official has told workers at its German headquarters. (http://bit.ly/1QJppFZ)

Bank of England in row as governor denies pro-EU bias

The Bank of England has become embroiled in the increasingly bitter EU referendum debate after its governor was forced to fend off accusations that Threadneedle Street was being too supportive of the government's pro-EU line. (http://bit.ly/24NR6XS)

The Telegraph

Tesco seeks deal to buy O2 out of joint venture for mobile push

Tesco Plc is planning to take advantage of the fallout from Hutchison's 10.25 billion pounds ($14.55 billion)takeover of O2 with a big push in the UK mobile market, seeking to expand sales outside the tough groceries market. (http://bit.ly/1Xbb3SK)

BT's boss turns to fibre in effort to rule out spectre of separation from Openreach

Gavin Patterson, BT Group Plc's chief executive, has promised to plough millions of pounds into connecting homes and businesses with fibre-optic cables, suggesting a strategic shift from copper-based technologies. It move comes as the telecoms giant attempts to secure its hold on Openreach, a BT subsidiary which runs the UK's broadband infrastructure, after industry watchdog Ofcom proposed a radical overhaul to BT's governance and finances, in a once-in-a-decade review of the market. (http://bit.ly/1Tr0KMi)

Sky News

KPMG Partners Quit After A&M Bid Snubbed

A trio of senior partners at KPMG have quit after the firm snubbed a surprise takeover offer from rival professional services firm Alvarez & Marsal (A&M) for part of its advisory business. (http://bit.ly/1nuOc8j)

Thomas Cook Scraps Summer Holidays To Sharm

Thomas Cook Group Plc has extended its cancellation of trips to the Egyptian resort of Sharm el Sheikh until the end of October because of security fears. The travel operator had previously stopped flights following the downing of a Russian passenger jet last year - covering holidays up to and including 25 May - following Foreign Office advice. (http://bit.ly/1Xb9W5s)

Npower Confirms 2,400 UK Job Losses

'Big six' energy firm npower has confirmed 2,400 jobs are to go in the UK after it racked up an operating loss of 106 million pounds in 2015 - a year in which it lost 7 percent of its domestic customers. (http://bit.ly/21iInIy)


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-09/frontrunning-march-9
 

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#31
S&P Futures Jump As Rebound In Commodities Helps Defense Of Key Support Trendline


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/09/2016 06:49 -0500


After yesterday's last hour selloff sent the S&P to the very edge of the critical support trendline which, as shown yesterday, meant 1980 had to be defended at all costs...





... so far the support has held, and in overnight trading European stocks have managed to rebound on the back of more levitation in oil, while US equity futures have ignored a drop in the USDJPY which touched 112.20 in morning trading, and have jumped by 0.5% as of this moment, up 10 points to 1,990.

It is worth noting that China opened on the wrong foot, with the Yuan feeling the pain of the recent abysmal trade data, however, after dropping as much as 3%, Chinese stocks managed to crawl back to the highs of the day following another dramatic intervention by the Chinese government's "National Team":

#China | "ICBC rallies in late trade on suspected buying by State Funds" Ya think?! Got to keep mkt up during NPC pic.twitter.com/CLukVq0QDK

— Ioan Smith (@moved_average) March 9, 2016

With China's Plunge Protection Team having intervened and set a positive spin on another poor session, traders put declines in Asia behind them as European markets rose along with U.S. index futures and commodities. European shares advanced for the first time in three days on speculation the region’s central bank will ramp up monetary stimulus on Thursday. A gauge of raw materials rebounded from its biggest selloff in a month, buoyed by gains in oil and copper. Furthermore, the previously noted selloff in Japanese government bonds - one which triggered circuit breakers and which some speculated may have been precipitated by the BOJ itself - dragged Treasuries and German bunds lower, gold fell a second day and the euro dropped versus most of its major peers.

Because the last thing the market needs is negative follow through the day after Jeff Gundlach says that the rally is ending and the the risk/return profile of the S&P is currently 2/20.

To be sure, everyone's attention will be focused on tomorrow's ECB, where Draghi will either provide a major upside surprise, or will disappoint massively to the downside: just like in December, there is no middle ground. "We think a 10bp cut and a EU10b top-up in QE purchases won’t do much to extend the equity rally, namely because it’s already priced in. A very generous macro add-on to the two-tiered system would possibly help lenders in the very short term, but realistically, it’s only the threat of credit purchases, corporate and/or financial, that can get the market excited at this point. Even if Draghi pulls another rabbit, the fundamental picture for European banks will remain extremely challenging given the grim outlook for back-end yields,” Ben Camara, head of European strategy at Vanda Securities, writes in note.

Others are just as skeptical: “There’s talk of rates cuts, increasing the size of the asset-purchase program, and expanding the range of products that the ECB will buy,” said Daniel Murray, the London-based head of research at EFG Asset Management. “Let’s see tomorrow how good Draghi is at playing the market: he has built up expectations before and found them hard to meet.”

So while we await the week's key event, here is where we stand currently.

Market Wrap

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 1990
  • Stoxx 600 up 1.0% to 341
  • FTSE 100 up less than 0.5% to 6155
  • DAX up 0.5% to 9744
  • German 10Yr yield up 2bps to 0.2%
  • Italian 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 1.42%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 1.57%
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.3% to 125
  • Nikkei 225 down 0.8% to 16642
  • Hang Seng down less than 0.1% to 19996
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.3% to 2863
  • S&P/ASX 200 up 1% to 5157
  • US 10-yr yield up 5bps to 1.88%
  • Dollar Index up 0.13% to 97.34
  • WTI Crude futures up 1.5% to $37.04
  • Brent Futures up 1.7% to $40.33
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,253
  • Silver spot up 0.1% to $15.37
Top Global News

  • Sanders Stuns Clinton with Michigan Upset: Even with loss, Clinton was able to go to sleep Tuesday with a bigger overall lead than she had when she woke up; Trump Sweeps Republican Primaries in Mississippi, Michigan
  • Swiss Re Said to Be in Talks to Buy Prime Reinsurance From Citi: Deal may value the subsidiary at ~$500m.
  • SunEdison Faces Lawsuits, Cash Crunch After Vivint Cancels Deal: Now that deal has fallen apart, fallout may be significant.
  • Carmike’s Biggest Holder Opposes AMC Buyout Terms as Too Low: Co. responded that it’s pressing ahead with proposed deal.
  • Berkshire Said to Market Euro Bonds Following Biggest Debt Sale: Co. offering 4, 8, 12-yr maturities, partly to help pay off loans used in acquisition of Precision Castparts.
  • IBM Snips Potential Share Buyback Benefits for CEO Compensation: Co. to strip out effects of “unplanned” repurchases from oper. EPS when it assesses CEO’s performance.
  • India Startup Cut Off From Facebook After U.S. Rival’s Protest: FB pulled plug on Houzify page after Sequoia Capital-backed Houzz Inc. complained of trademark infringements.
  • Copper Demand to Overtake Supply in 2017: Freeport Official: Demand will increase slightly over 2%/year on average through 2020.
  • Chipotle Closes Mass. Restaurant After Workers Get Sick: Location in Billerica, outside Boston, was closed for a full cleaning.
  • Google AI Wins First Match Against Korean Go Game Champion:
Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • European bourses are trading mildly higher despites risk events being in focus, most notably ECB's Draghi speaking tomorrow after the ECB rate announcement.
  • Brent crude oil has once again reached USD 40/bbl today with WTI following slightly below at USD 37/bbl respectively despite a build in API inventories, with DOE Crude Oil Inventories expected to come in at 2000k.
  • Looking ahead: Bank of Canada Rate Decision, DOE Crude Oil Inventories and RBNZ Official Cash Rate.
  • Treasuries lower in overnight trading; equity markets mostly lower in Asia, rise in Europe before tomorrow’s ECB meeting; week’s auctions continue with $20b 10Y notes, WI 1.87% vs 1.73% in Feb., was lowest 10Y auction stop since 1.652% in Dec. 2012.
  • Current 10Y trading special in the repo market, -3.25% yesterday, a reflection of an increasing short base and shortage of the security, which the Fed cannot alleviate because it doesn’t hold much of the issue
  • Mario Draghi is having no success convincing stock investors that the ECB has the firepower to reignite growth. In the first year of quantitative easing, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell 17%, and volatility reached levels not seen since 2008
  • Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s biggest, hasn’t been part of a global selloff in stocks this quarter, according to its CEO, Yngve Slyngstad. The comments follow evidence that wealth funds across the Middle East and central Asia have sold assets to plug deficits amid plunging oil prices
  • U.K. industrial production posted a modest rebound in January, climbed 0.3% from December, when it declined 1.1%, as manufacturing and energy production jumped, the Office for National Statistics said in London on Wednesday
  • The Chinese stock market has once again turned into a battleground for bearish investors and state-directed funds determined to spark a rally
  • China National Petroleum won’t cut frontline oil and gas workers as it seeks to reduce costs to cope with low energy prices, according to Chairman Wang Yilin. “We are not like international oil companies where layoffs are the most convenient way to cut cost in the capitalist world”
  • Thousands of refugees piled up at the border between Greece and the Republic of Macedonia, unable to continue northward as regional authorities tightened controls before European Union leaders finalize an agreement to stem the flow of migrants
  • Donald Trump beat back a barrage of attacks led by the last Republican presidential nominee and scored major victories over his leading rival in two primaries on Tuesday, strengthening his bid to win the party’s nomination
  • Hillary Clinton was expected to sail to an easy victory in Michigan on Tuesday. Instead, she suffered a narrow yet stunning loss that has the potential to further slow her progress to the Democratic nomination
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mixed, mostly steady; European, Asian markets mixed; U.S. equity-index futures rise. WTI crude oil, copper rise, gold falls
US Event Calendar

  • 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, March 4 (prior -4.8%)
  • 10:00am: Wholesale Inventories m/m, Jan., est. -0.2% (prior -0.1%); Wholesale Trade Sales m/m, Jan., est. -0.3% (prior -0.3%)
  • 10:00am: Bank of Canada overnight rate, est. 0.5% (prior 0.5%)
  • 1:00pm: U.S. to sell $20b 10Y notes (reopen)
  • 3:00pm: Reserve Bank of New Zealand overnight rate, est. 2.5% (prior 2.5%)
  • 3:05pm: RBNZ’s Wheeler holds news conference, attends 6:10pm parliamentary hearing
Looking at regional markets, stocks in Asia traded mostly lower following the losses on Wall St. after weakness in crude and China concerns continued to dampen sentiment. Nikkei 225 (-1.17%) and ASX 200 (+0.78%) were initially pressured by declines in the commodity-complex, although the latter recovered losses, supported by defensive stocks. Chinese markets continued to underperform with the Shanghai Comp (-1.34%) lower following yesterdays poor trade data, while today's PBoC operation was a relatively paltry injection. 10yr JGBs declined on profit-taking following yesterdays advances with demand also subdued as participants searched elsewhere for positive yields. Further selling was also observed on resumption from the break due to disappointment from the BoJ's buying operations which saw 10yr JGBs decline by around 1 point and caused the OSE to issue a circuit breaker. PBoC set the CNY mid-point at 6.5106 vs. last close. 6.5046 (Prey. mid-point 6.5041); 1st time PBoC weakened the fix in 5 days. (RTRS) PBoC injected CNY 15bIn via 7-day reverse repos.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Plans to Uncloak Investors With New See-Through System: Watchdog plans to assign identity record to each investor trading in market.
  • The China Intervention Trade Is Back as State Funds Battle Bears: Pattern of late-day rallies returns as Shanghai Composite Index heavyweights jump.
  • China May Face Japan-Like Slump Unless Yuan Weakens, KKR Says: KKR sees currency’s ‘fair value’ at about 7 per U.S. dollar.
  • PBOC Using Stealth Intervention as Reserves Decline, Daiwa Says: Central bank may have asked wealth fund to sell foreign assets, analysts say.
  • Noble Group Said to Plan Biggest Loan Backed by Inventories: Commodities trader is seeking $2.5b in so-called borrowing base facility guaranteed by oil.
  • Aramco Mulls Indian Refinery in Plan to Boost Asia Footprint: Saudi producer also looking at China, Indonesia, Malaysia.
  • Cathay Pacific Profit Nearly Doubles as Fuel Costs Fall: Full-year net income jumps 90.5 percent from a year earlier
In Europe, participants appear somewhat on edge so far today ahead of the key ECB meeting tomorrow, however with some indications that risk on sentiment has not completely dissipated. Equities trade higher this morning (Euro Stoxx: +0.6%), with the defensive healthcare sector the session's laggard so far and financials & materials leading the way higher. This comes as materials pare back some of the heavy losses seen yesterday. Bunds remain heavy heading into the north American cross over although off their worst levels, partly in tandem with the downside observed in USTs, which fell following somewhat lacklustre buying op by the BoJ, with profit taking and positioning ahead of supply also noted as factors behind the move.

Top European News

  • Banks Face Billions in Collateral Needs Under EU Swap Rules: May require EU buyers, sellers of swaps to set aside EU200m- EU420m once they are fully effective in 2020.
  • Draghi Stimulus Fails in Stock Market as Volatility Matches 2008: In first year of quantitative easing, Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell 17%, with volatility reaching levels not seen since 2008.
  • Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund Has Worst Year Since 2011: The $830b Government Pension Fund Global returned 2.7% in 2015, after rising 7.6% in 2014.
  • Credit Agricole Seeks EU4.2b Annual Profit in 2019: Co. to seek EU900m in annual gross cost savings as it streamlines some businesses, invests in others.
  • Prudential’s Pretax Profit Rises 19% as Asia Life Sales Grow: Co. will also pay special dividend of 10p.
  • Altice Defends Cablevision Purchase as in NYC’s Interest: Subscribers could sign up for broadband service as fast as 300mbps, while low-income New Yorkers can get 30mbps plan for $14.99/month.
  • Bank of France Cuts Growth Forecast as Business Confidence Falls: Sentiment among factory executives dropped to 98 in Feb. from 101 in Jan.
  • Zara Owner Cuts Store Expansion Goal in Favor of Online Growth: Co., which has over 7,000 outlets, aims to increase retail space 6-8% in coming years, vs previous target of 8-10%.
  • U.K. Industrial Output Rises on Manufacturing, Utilities: Output climbed 0.3% from Dec., vs forecasted gain of 0.4%.
In FX, there have been no big moves this morning, but notable was the fresh downturn in USD/JPY, testing the low 112.00's to hit fresh session lows and a return into the nervy 111.00 zone. Little behind the move apart from some cross JPY flow (EUR selling contributing), with the risk mood relatively positive after yesterdays losses. Elsewhere, UK industrial and manufacturing production data was mixed, but GBP has recovered a little, with EUR/GBP dipping below .7700 to give the Cable rate a lift back into the 1.4200's. Ahead of the ECB, we saw some early selling of EUR/USD, but this petered out pretty quickly, as the inverse correlation with USD/JPY took hold. AUD/USD is digging in to uphold the risk correlation, while the CAD is pushing higher again also as Oil resumes higher levels — WTI back through $37.0, Brent $40.0+.

In commodities, Brent crude oil has once again reached USD 40/bbl today with WTI following, slightly below at USD 37/bbl respectively with traders looking forward to the possibility of an oil producers meeting on the 20th March. Crude oil rose 1.4 percent to $37.00 a barrel in New York, after a 3.7 percent slide on Tuesday that marked its biggest loss in almost four weeks. The Energy Information Administration cut its U.S. output forecast through 2017 as drillers idle rigs to conserve cash. That helped counter an increase in inventories, which rose by 4.4 million barrels last week, the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute was said to report. Government data Wednesday is forecast to show supplies increased.

Nickel rebounded 2.6 percent after tumbling 8.5 percent on Tuesday, while copper gained 1 percent. Copper demand won’t catch up with supply until 2017, according to a senior official at Freeport-McMoRan Inc., the largest publicly traded producer of the metal. Gold fell 0.4 percent, extending Tuesday’s retreat from a one-year high. The Bloomberg Commodity Index’s rebound comes after a 1.1 percent loss in the last session. It’s dropped 21 percent in the past year.

“The IMF’s latest reading of the global economy shows once again a weakening baseline,” IMF First Deputy Managing Director David Lipton said Tuesday in Washington. “Moreover, risks have increased further, with volatile financial markets and low commodity prices creating fresh concerns about the health of the global economy.”

On today's US calendar, the only releases of note are the January wholesale inventories and trade sales data with modest declines expected for both

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The weaker sentiment has continued during the Asia session this morning where risk assets continue to remain under pressure. It’s China which is leading the way with the Shanghai Comp -2.04%, tumbling into the midday break (although we note that this time yesterday saw the index rally back post the break) while the Hang Seng (-0.34%) and Nikkei (-0.74%) are also struggling. Only the ASX (+0.66%) is up while credit markets are 2 to 4bps wider generally. With little in the way of data, some of the focus has also been on the latest in the US Presidential race where Trump has been victorious in both the Mississippi and Michigan Republican primaries, and thus cementing further his control in the race, while Clinton has defeated Sanders in the Mississippi race with the outcome from the Michigan primary much closer. US equity futures are little changed this morning.

Back to Oil briefly, yesterday our commodities and US fixed income colleagues published an interesting note looking at the impact of the Oil price decline not just in HY credit (where they go into further detail on current and projected default rates and recovery values) but across much of the wider credit spectrum. The note touches on the extent to which CLO’s and CMBS have been affected as an asset class, while also looking at how energy price declines have had a positive impact for consumer ABS and aviation debt.

In truth, aside from the China numbers and focus on moves in commodity markets there wasn’t a whole lot of new news in yesterday’s session. That said some of the more interesting moves were in rates markets where global bond yields moved materially lower. It was Japan where the rally was most evident, helped to a large degree by a record low yield set at the 30y JGB auction yesterday with demand for the bonds the highest since May 2014. That resulted in 30y JGB’s rallying 22bps to a record low 0.468%, an unprecedented rally considering we started the year at 1.265%. Meanwhile 10y JGB’s dived deeper into negative territory at -0.108% (-5.3bps) with the curve now negative up until the 12.5y maturity mark. Yields in Europe followed suit with 10y Bunds in particular down 4.2bps to 0.181% (although still off the low print of last Monday) while similar maturity Treasuries closed down 7.7bps at 1.830%.

With regards to the economic dataflow yesterday, in the US the only release of note was the NFIB small business optimism print for February which was down a disappointing 1pt relative to the prior month to 92.9 (vs. 94.0 expected) and a two-year low. The most significant surprise was reserved for Germany however where industrial production in January was up a much greater than expected +3.3% mom (vs. +0.5% expected) with the December reading revised up nine-tenths also. Our European Economics colleagues cautioned that the data was likely overstated by mild winter weather and one-offs, but that being said it should help put concerns that Germany is at the brink of recession at bay. Away from this there was no change in the second revision of Q4 GDP for the Euro area at +0.3% qoq.

Before the day ahead and anniversary performance review, the latest HY monthly is now out. In the note we highlight the recent outperformance of USD HY vs. EUR HY. This has largely been driven by the improvement in oil/commodity prices, with the Oil & Gas and Basic Materials sectors seeing strong returns. We also take a look at issuance trends and pose the question of whether the lack of supply in European HY is acting as a positive technical support or actually more of a headwind for the market. It seems clear to us that the lack of issuance has probably meant growing investor cash balances, however we argue that performance might actually be supported by a more active primary market at the moment. The lack of new deals and sometimes lack of success in bringing new deals to market may actually be weighing on sentiment. We’ve also provided an update of our table looking at the YTD performance of the largest issuers in the EUR HY market. Email Nick for a copy.

Looking at the day ahead, the calendar is fairly thin on the ground data-wise again today. This morning in the European session the main data of note will be the industrial and manufacturing production reports out of the UK covering the January month (expected at +0.4% mom and +0.2% mom respectively), while the French business sentiment survey is also expected. Over in the US this afternoon the only releases of note are the January wholesale inventories and trade sales data with modest declines expected for both. Away from this the BoE’s Bailey is expected to speak this morning, while central bank wise we’ll get the Bank of Canada decision this afternoon (no change expected).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...rebound-commodities-helps-defense-key-support
 

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#32
The Financial System Is A Larger Threat Than Terrorism


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/08/2016 22:10 -0500



Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

In the 21st century Americans have been distracted by the hyper-expensive “war on terror.” Trillions of dollars have been added to the taxpayers’ burden and many billions of dollars in profits to the military/security complex in order to combat insignificant foreign “threats,” such as the Taliban, that remain undefeated after 15 years. All this time the financial system, working hand-in-hand with policymakers, has done more damage to Americans than terrorists could possibly inflict.

The purpose of the Federal Reserve and US Treasury’s policy of zero interest rates is to support the prices of the over-leveraged and fraudulent financial instruments that unregulated financial systems always create. If inflation was properly measured, these zero rates would be negative rates, which means not only that retirees have no income from their retirement savings but also that saving is a losing proposition. Instead of earning interest on your savings, you pay interest that shrinks the real value of your saving.

Central banks, neoliberal economists, and the presstitute financial media advocate negative interest rates in order to force people to spend instead of save. The notion is that the economy’s poor economic performance is not due to the failure of economic policy but to people hoarding their money. The Federal Reserve and its coterie of economists and presstitutes maintain the fiction of too much savings despite the publication of the Federal Reserve’s own report that 52% of Americans cannot raise $400 without selling personal possessions or borrowing the money.

Negative interest rates, which have been introduced in some countries such as Switzerland and threatened in other countries, have caused people to avoid the tax on bank deposits by withdrawing their savings from banks in large denomination bills. In Switzerland, for example, demand for the 1,000 franc bill (about $1,000) has increased sharply. These large denomination bills now account for 60% of the Swiss currency in circulation.

The response of depositors to negative interest rates has resulted in neoliberal economists, such as Larry Summers, calling for the elimination of large denomination bank notes in order to make it difficult for people to keep their cash balances outside of banks.

Other neoliberal economists, such as Kenneth Rogoff want to eliminate cash altogether and have only electronic money. Electronic money cannot be removed from bank deposits except by spending it. With electronic money as the only money, financial institutions can use negative interest rates in order to steal the savings of their depositors.

People would attempt to resort to gold, silver, and forms of private money, but other methods of payment and saving would be banned, and government would conduct sting operations in order to suppress evasions of electronic money with stiff penalties.

What this picture shows is that government, economists, and presstitutes are allied against citizens achieving any financial independence from personal saving. Policymakers have a crackpot economic policy and those with control over your life value their scheme more than they value your welfare.

This is the fate of people in the so-called democracies. Any remaining control that they have over their lives is being taken away. Governments serve a few powerful interest groups whose agendas result in the destruction of the host economies. The offshoring of middle class jobs transfers income and wealth from the middle class to the executives and owners of the corporation, but it also kills the domestic consumer market for the offshored goods and services. As Michael Hudson writes, it kills the host. The financialization of the economy also kills the host and the owners of corporations as well. When corporate executives borrow from banks in order to boost share prices and their performance bonuses by buying back the publicly held stock of the corporations, future profits are converted into interest payments to banks. The future income streams of the corporations are financialized. If the future income streams fail, the companies can be foreclosed, like homeowners, and the banks become the owners of the corporations.

Between the offshoring of jobs and the conversion of more and more income streams into payments to banks, less and less is available to be spent on goods and services. Thus, the economy fails to grow and falls into long-term decline. Today many Americans can only pay the minimum payment on their credit card balance. The result is massive growth in a balance that can never be paid off. It is these people who are the least able to service debt who are hit with draconian charges. The way the credit card companies have it now, if you make one late payment or your payment is returned by your bank, you are hit for the next six months with a Penalty Annual Percentage Rate of 29.49%.

In Europe entire countries are being foreclosed. Greece and Portugal have been forced into liquidation of national assets and the social security systems. So many women have been forced into poverty and prostitution that the hourly price of a prostitute has been driven down to $4.12.

Throughout the Western world the financial system has become an exploiter of the people and a deadweight loss on economies. There are only two possible solutions. One is to break the large banks up into smaller and local entities such as existed prior to the concentration that deregulation fostered. The other is to nationalize them and operate them solely in the interest of the general welfare of the population.

The banks are too powerful currently for either solution to occur. But the greed, fraud, and self-serving behavior of Western financial systems, aided and abeted by governments, could be leading to such a breakdown of economic life that the idea of a private financial system will become as abhorent in the future as Nazism is today.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-08/financial-system-larger-threat-terrorism
 

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#33
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#34
John Rubino BIS Negative Interest Rates Are Working Just Fine So Far #3005 YouTube 360p
FinanceAndLiberty.com


Published on Mar 9, 2016
John writes, "The Bank For International Settlements just released a report stating that the spread of negative interest rates hasn’t caused the world to end. From this morning’s Bloomberg: 'Negative interest-rate policies currently in use by central banks around the world have worked through their respective systems in much the same way as positive rates, though it’s not known how far below zero that would continue to be the case, the Bank for International Settlements said. In its quarterly report published Sunday, the Basel-based “central bank for central banks” said that “so far, zero has not proved to be a technically binding lower limit for central bank policy rates.” The BIS’s verdict on negative rates gives backing to the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and others at a time when such unconventional methods are facing increasing criticism for their potential impact on the financial industry and currency markets. A sell-off in European bank stocks this year was partly driven by fears that further rate cuts by the ECB would damage profitability in a sector still recovering from the debt crisis.'"

This video was posted with permission from http://FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com

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#35

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#38
Frontrunning: March 10


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/10/2016 07:28 -0500


  • Pressure Is on Mario Draghi to Show ECB Has Tools to Boost Low Inflation (WSJ)
  • Euro dips as ECB sets sights on deeper negative rates (Reuters)
  • Ohio's 'dirty little secret': blue-collar Democrats for Trump (Reuters)
  • Irish Economy Expanded 7.8% in 2015, Fastest Pace Since 2000 (BBG)
  • Too Many Boats for Too Little Cargo Leaves Shippers High and Dry (BBG)
  • Abe pledges to boost tourism in tsunami-ravaged region, maintains nuclear policy stance (Xinhua)
  • Amazon Finds Air Freight Partner (WSJ)
  • Obama committed to Pacific trade deal, even as opposition spreads (Reuters)
  • Dividend Cuts Show Pain of Cheap Oil in Emerging Markets (BBG)
  • Norway's Big Bet on London Property (BBG)
  • At least five killed, several hurt in shooting near Pittsburgh (Reuters)
  • Men’s Wearhouse Owner to Close Hundreds of Stores as Sales Slide (BBG)
  • The corrosive dangers lurking in America's private wells (Reuters)
  • Goldman Sachs Hire Came as Bank Pitched 1MDB (WSJ)
  • UK energy suppliers face price freeze for some customers (Reuters)


Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

- Saudi Arabia is looking to borrow up to $8 billion from international banks and could also issue foreign bonds, said people familiar with the matter, to plug the kingdom's widening fiscal deficit from cheap oil. (http://on.wsj.com/1RAYGeC)

- Moody's Investors Service has agreed to pay $130 million to Calpers to end a prominent lawsuit alleging crisis-era misconduct, a record settlement for the world's second-largest ratings firm. (http://on.wsj.com/1RB2M6n)

- Amazon.com Inc is taking to the air with a fleet of planes, as part of a broader effort to reduce its inflated shipping costs. The Seattle retailer plans to shuttle merchandise around the U.S. using as many as 20 Boeing Co 767 aircraft it will lease from Air Transport Services Group Inc . (http://on.wsj.com/1TuNtlD)

- Shared-office-space startup WeWork Cos has raised about $430 million in a new round of financing led by Chinese investors, making it one of the world's most valuable startups and clearing the way for a push into Asia. (http://on.wsj.com/1TuNDtl)

- After decades in which successive Republican and Democratic presidents have pushed to open U.S. and global markets, resentment toward free trade now appears to have an upper hand in both parties, making passage this year of a sweeping Pacific trade deal far less likely, and clouding the longer-term outlook for international economic exchange. (http://on.wsj.com/1TuCetA)

- A Senate committee Wednesday approved a slate of bills that would relax requirements for approval of medical devices by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, part of a larger effort aimed at speeding up the regulatory process and boosting medical research. (http://on.wsj.com/1TuDixx)

- New Jersey officials shut off water fountains at 30 Newark Public Schools in the state's largest school district Wednesday after tests showed elevated levels of lead. (http://on.wsj.com/1TuDqgH)



FT

* Amazon.com Inc is opening its first large warehouse in the northwest of England which will generate 1,000 jobs in over three years.

* Exchange operator Nasdaq Inc said on Wednesday it would buy International Securities Exchange from Deutsche Boerse AG for $1.1 billion. The deal with Nasdaq excludes ownership interests in BATS Global Markets and Digital Asset Holdings, which will continue to be owned by Deutsche Boerse, Deutsche Borse said.

* UBS and Deutsche Bank AG lost a legal challenge brought on by HM Revenue & Customs regarding two offshore schemes which were conceived to avoid paying tax on bankers' bonuses.

* Moody's Investors Service has decided to withdraw all national scale ratings for Russian issuers for the rest of the year in light of recent legislative changes in Russia, the rating agency said in a press release on Wednesday.



NYT

- The head of Volkswagen AG's American operations, a central figure in the carmaker's effort to repair relations with dealers and customers after an emissions scandal, unexpectedly stepped down on Wednesday. (http://nyti.ms/1RB6xsE)

- The European Central Bank is expected on Thursday to increase the penalty it charges banks to store money in its virtual vaults, hoping to force lenders to pump that money into the eurozone economy instead. (http://nyti.ms/1RB6BIU)

- David Grim, who leads the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's asset management division, is pushing to increase funds' liquidity cushions so investors can sell out quickly. (http://nyti.ms/1RB6QUn)

- Nasdaq Inc agreed to buy the International Securities Exchange for $1.1 billion from Deutsche Boerse AG of Germany, in yet another deal among exchange operators as even bigger takeovers loom. (http://nyti.ms/1RB6WLy)

- John Gutfreund, whose aggressive leadership of Salomon Brothers and extravagant lifestyle personified the meteoric rise and fall of Wall Street moguls in the heady 1980s, died on Wednesday in Manhattan. He was 86. (http://nyti.ms/1RB7kd5)



Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Crescent Point Energy Corp slashed its dividend by 70 percent and said it would defer some spending to later this year, underscoring wariness in the industry that a hoped-for price recovery is at hand. (http://bit.ly/1UULo1W)

** Transport Minister Marc Garneau says he's "not happy" with the financial situation of his department and is vowing to fix the problem without sacrificing the department's key role in protecting the safety of Canadians. (http://bit.ly/1UhaFmv)

** The economic pieces are starting to fall into place for the Bank of Canada and its Governor Stephen Poloz, giving the central bank latitude to keep its key interest rate unchanged.(http://bit.ly/1M8utld)

NATIONAL POST

** Toronto Mayor John Tory's signature $7-billion SmartTrack plan edged somewhat closer to reality on Wednesday - or what remains of it, anyway. The Executive Committee approved a staff recommendation to focus on two possible options that fall well short of what Tory stumped for during his election campaign. The plan will go next to city council. (http://bit.ly/1XewVg0)

** Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne has taken an important stand on the issue of unnamed donors paying thousands of dollars for private meetings with her and her staff. She's in favor of it. "It's part of the democratic process," she says, of the $6,000-a-head cocktail reception and three-course dinner at Toronto's Four Seasons Hotel scheduled for Thursday. (http://bit.ly/1RSv2Eh)



Britain

The Times

Deutsche Boerse raises $1.1 bln in Nasdaq deal

Deutsche Boerse AG is to sell one of its businesses for more than $1 billion days before it is expected to announce a deal with the London Stock Exchange Group Plc . Nasdaq Inc, America's technology-heavy exchange, announced in New York last night that it had agreed to buy International Securities Exchange, an operator of three exchanges, from Deutsche Börse, for $1.1 billion. The deal, could be completed by the end of the year. (http://thetim.es/1ph82pr)

Former MPC member warns of Brexit upset

A former member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee has said that leaving the European Union would cause significant disruption to the British economy. Andrew Sentance told a conference in Edinburgh that "leaving the EU would disrupt the trade and investment that has underpinned the UK and our economy for over 40 years. I believe that quite a big shock would flow through." (http://thetim.es/1TMQApz)

The Guardian

Michael Horn, VW's US president, resigns 'effective immediately'

The head of Volkswagen AG in the United States resigned 'effective immediately' on Wednesday night as the company struggles to agree on a settlement with the U.S. government over its emissions cheating scandal. (http://bit.ly/1QMUyIL)

The Telegraph

Google's Eric Schmidt says driverless cars could hit UK streets

Google Inc is considering trialling its driverless cars in the UK, the chairman of its parent company has revealed. Eric Schmidt said that officials had proposed bringing self-driving cars to a city in Britain and that "eventually we will all be in self-driving cars". (http://bit.ly/1QN4MJc)

Sky turns to Vice to draw in millennials

Sky Plc has agreed a deal with the youth media company Vice to launch Viceland, its first European television channel, later this year. (http://bit.ly/1R8mUTh)

Sky News

Warburg Pincus In Talks To Try On 250 mln stg Reiss

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-10/frontrunning-march-10
 

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#39
All Eyes On Draghi: Markets Unchanged, Poised To Pounce Or Plunge


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/10/2016 06:52 -0500


Global stocks and U.S. equity futures are fractionally higher (unchanged really) this morning (despite China's historic NPL debt-for-equity proposal) as traders await the main event of the day: the ECB's 1:45pm CET announcement, more importantly what Mario Draghi will announce during the 2:30pm CET press conference, and most importantly, whether he will disappoint as he did in December or finally unleash the bazooka that the market has been desperately demanding.

Recall that for the past month, it has been a case of deferred expectations when first the Shanghai G-20 meeting let traders down, then it was the Chinese Congress last weekend, and now it is all up to the ECB: it is all downhill from here, as next week we get the BOJ, which after the NIRP fiasco won't do anything, and the Fed which if anything, may be unexpectedly hawkish.

All economists in a Bloomberg survey expect a rate cut, and 73 percent forecast the ECB will boost the amount of money put into the financial system through bond purchases. “We are waiting in anticipation of what Draghi will say-- there is a good chance that the market could rally a bit on that,” said Allan von Mehren, chief analyst at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen. “There has been some positioning ahead of the ECB meeting but there are also investors waiting on the side-lines. So there will be more cash ready to put to work if the ECB actually delivers on both a the rate cut and an increase of QE.”

Below, courtesy of @bondvigilantes, is a summary of what the major investment banks expect today from the European Central Bank:





As Bloomberg notes, stocks have become more and more responsive to ECB updates, with the moves in the Euro Stoxx 50 Index on rate-decision days exceeding the monthly average since last July. In December, when investors were disappointed by the extent of additional stimulus, the gauge swung 4.9 percent intraday, the most since at least 2012.





In other words, Draghi better not disappoint or a replay of the December market reaction is almost assured.

Aside from US futures which are modestly up, Europe trades little changed ahead of ECB meeting, Asian equities gain for first day in four. Oil, copper, gold, most food commodities fall.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is up 0.1% as of this moment. It earlier erased a gain of as much as 0.4 percent to fall 0.2 percent. The benchmark has rebounded 12 percent from a 2013 low reached last month, helped by a rally in miners and speculation of further ECB stimulus, a possibility signaled by Draghi in January.

Below is a snapshot of where key markets stood before the ECB:

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 1985
  • Stoxx 600 down less than 0.1% to 339
  • FTSE 100 down 0.4% to 6122
  • DAX up less than 0.1% to 9725
  • German 10Yr yield down 3bps to 0.22%
  • Italian 10Yr yield down 2bps to 1.39%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield down 2bps to 1.54
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.5% to 126
  • Nikkei 225 up 1.3% to 16852
  • Hang Seng down less than 0.1% to 19984
  • Shanghai Composite down 2% to 2805
  • S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5150
  • US 10-yr yield down 2bps to 1.86%
  • Dollar Index up 0.19% to 97.35
  • WTI Crude futures down 0.9% to $37.94
  • Brent Futures down 1% to $40.64
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,249
  • Silver spot up less than 0.1% to $15.30
Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia where the Nikkei 225 (+1.2%) outperformed as exporter names benefitted from JPY weakness, while ASX 200 (-0.1%) failed to hold onto its early energy-led advances amid profit-taking in defensive stocks. Chinese markets traded mixed following the latest inflation data where CPI rose to its highest in 19 months but PPI declined for the 48th consecutive month, with the Shanghai Comp (-2.0%) pressured after the PBoC kept its inter¬bank liquidity injections reserved and reports that China is seeking to rein in on property prices. 10yr JGBs initially traded with mild gains amid short-covering following yesterday's significant declines and ahead of the 5yr auction. However, prices then returned flat on resumed selling following a relatively in-line auction.
Chinese CPI (Feb) Y/Y 2.30% vs. Exp. 1.80% (Prey. 1.80%); highest in 19-months. - PPI (Feb) Y/Y -4.90% vs. Exp. -4.90% (Prey. -5.30%); 48th consecutive monthly decline.

Top Asian News

  • Shanghai Authorities Said to Discuss Ways to Cool Housing Market: Possible steps weighed incl. tightening mortgage policies for 2nd-home buyers
  • How Global Investors Turn Negative Japan Yields Into Big Returns: Discount offered to yen borrowers reaches record 102.5 basis points this week
  • Abe Aide Honda Says BOJ Will Add Easing Soon, But Not Next Week: Etsuro Honda says BOJ should use negative rate, asset purchase “combination”
  • Swire Properties Sees Weaker Demand for Retail Space, Housing: Drop in tourist spending, falling retail sales at Hong Kong malls hurt developer
  • Lenders Seek to Claw Back $1 Billion From India Beer Tycoon: Court case to bar flamboyant former billionaire’s travel abroad comes days too late
  • Daewoo Shipbuilding Says Worst Is Over, Sees Profit This Quarter: World’s second-largest shipbuilder is aiming to win $10.8b in orders this year
European trading has seen a slow start, as many would have expected given the heavy focus on the ECB rate decision later today with European equities trading relatively mixed/flat. In terms of a sector specific basis, materials and energy names lead the way lower with Asian equity markets failing to inspire sentiment overnight. Fixed income markets illustrate the tentative sentiment felt today, as Bunds trade around 162.50 after drifting higher throughout the morning amid particularly light newsflow. In a similar fashion, with many remaining on the sidelines for now.

Top European News

  • Draghi Marks a Year of QE With Suspense of ‘No Limits’ Stimulus: Investors expect at least a 10 basis-point cut in deposit rate to minus 0.4 percent, as indicated by swaps on the euro overnight index average.
  • Merkel Threat Lurks in Baden-Wuerttemberg From AfD Party: Having made her case for open borders in Europe, Merkel faces test of her stance Sunday when 3 states vote.
  • Carrefour Maintains Plan for IPO of Property Unit Carmila: Unit still plans an IPO, CFO Pierre-Jean Sivignon said on a call to reporters.
  • Apple’s Privacy Fight Could Be Even Worse in Europe: Law enforcement has generally counted on cooperation from the private sector in obtaining data for police investigations.
In FX, ahead of the key ECB meeting today, few were expecting any fireworks in the market, with the EUR pairs notably quiet as pre decision positioning extremely light. EUR/USD continues to hold the upper 1.0900's, with 1.1000+ levels clearly too rich under the circumstances, The is market ready for some disappointment, and will be looking for more than the 10bp cut in the deposit rate, though changes to the APP are unquantifiable. EUR/GBP has also been resisting .7700 on the downside, which in turn is limiting Cable upside, though not for the want of trying. NZD/USD has recovered some ground after the surprise RBNZ rate cut, though topping out around .6680-85 for now. AUD/USD is holding off .7500 in the meantime. The JPY pairs have all eased off better levels, though the lead USD rate still looking comfortable on a 113.00 handle. Oil steady, so CAD ranges kept tight accordingly.

In commodities, price action in Oil has been choppy this morning but Brent crude has managed to stay above the pivotal USD 40/bbl level with WTI staying above USD 37/bbl respectively. Gold has moved lower by USD 3.00/oz but many traders will be looking ahead to the ECB rate announcement and meeting later today. Iron ore is still extending its gains after a minor reprieve yesterday with many analyst citing profit taking as for that brief decline.

In addition to the ECB announcement, today on the US calendar we have the latest US initial jobless claims data along with the February Monthly Budget Statement.

Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • European markets have seen a tentative start to the session with all eyes firmly fixated on the ECB
  • Overnight saw mixed inflation data from China with CPI rising to its highest level in 19 months but PPI declining for the 48th consecutive month
  • Looking ahead today's highlights include ECB Rate Decision, ECB's Draghi's (Dove) press conference and US Initial Jobless Claims
  • Treasuries higher in overnight trading; global equity markets mostly lower ahead of ECB rate announcement; week’s auctions conclude with $12b 30Y bonds, WI 2.65% vs 2.50% in Feb., was lowest 30Y auction stop since record low 2.430% in Jan. 2015.
  • Given the pressure on current 10Y, 30Y in repo, it’s likely “both issues will trade special even after their auction settlements on March 15,” according to Stone & McCarthy
  • The ECB is forecast to ease policy via measures including an interest-rate cut and an expansion of its quantitative easing, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would add to a wave of global monetary stimulus this year
  • The euro weakened, cementing its position as the world’s worst-performing major currency over the past month, as traders braced for the European Central Bank’s decision on whether to expand stimulus
  • China’s central bank is preparing new regulations to allow commercial banks to directly swap non-performing loans with firms for shares in their cos, Reuters reports, citing 2 unidentified people with direct knowledge of the new policy
  • New Zealand’s central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates to a fresh record low and said further easing may be needed, joining global counterparts in adding stimulus to an economy struggling to generate inflation
  • Foreign banks including HSBC and Deutsche Bank are pushing back against the Federal Reserve’s proposals on implementing rules designed to end too-big-to-fail, saying they are burdensome and unfair to the U.S. units of the world’s biggest lenders
  • Goldman Sachs hired the daughter of an ally to Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak around the time the firm’s bankers were pitching business to the country’s government investment fund, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people
  • The Sao Paulo state prosecutor’s office on Wednesday charged Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on allegations of hiding assets, delivering a second blow to the former president in less than a week
  • John Gutfreund, who was proclaimed the “King of Wall Street” in 1985 for harnessing the egos and fiefdoms of Salomon Brothers into one of the most profitable investment- banking firms, has died. He was 86
  • $8b IG corporates priced yesterday; WTD $40.895b, 4th straight week to top $40b; MTD $82.72b, YTD $376.97b
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mixed; European, Asian markets mixed; U.S. equity-index futures rise. WTI crude oil, copper drop, gold rises
US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, March 5, est. 275k (prior 278k)
  • Continuing Claims, Feb. 27, est. 2.250m (prior 2.257m)
  • 8:45am: Bloomberg March U.S. Economic Survey
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, March 6 (prior 43.6)
  • 12:00pm: Household Change in Net Worth, 4Q (prior - $1.232t)
  • 2:00pm: Monthly Budget Statement, Feb., est. -$196.3b (prior -$192.4b)
Central Banks

  • 7:45am: European Central Bank refinancing rate, est. 0.05% (prior 0.05%)
  • ECB deposit facility rate, est. -0.4% (prior -0.3%)
  • 8:30am: ECB’s Draghi holds news conference
  • 4:15pm: Bank of Canada’s Poloz speaks in Ottawa
Supply

  • 11:00am: U.S. to announce plans for auction of 3M/6M bills, 10Y TIPS
  • 1:00pm: U.S. to sell $12b 30Y bonds in reopening
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight event wrap

As we head into the big event, the last 24 hours or so have proven to be relatively constructive for risk, with price action yesterday a bit of a mirror image relative to that risk-off move which had swept over Tuesday's session. In line with the recent trend, much of the focus was on the resumption of gains across the energy space after we saw WTI (+4.90%) more than wipe out the prior day losses to surge above $38/bbl and in the process settle at the highest level since December 4th. A greater than expected decline in gasoline stockpiles last week was attributed to the move. It was a positive day across much of the metals space too with Copper (+1.38%), Zinc (+2.10%) and Nickel (+3.49%) all in rebound mode. Iron ore (-8.82%) did however manage to give up some of those huge gains from Monday while the FT ran an interesting/amusing story suggesting that a horticultural show in the Chinese industrial city of Tangshan was the major cause of that rally as steel mills rushed to buy before being forced to close in order to keep skies blue for the show!

By the closing bell last night the S&P 500 had edged up +0.51% meaning this month the index has closed higher on six of the seven trading days so far. European equity markets closed up similar amounts with the Stoxx 600 announcing the 1y anniversary of the start of ECB QE with a +0.49% gain. Unsurprisingly some of the more volatile moves came in the form of the Euro which was at one stage down 0.6% versus the Dollar, before paring all of that move into the close to finish more or less unchanged around 1.10 (although it is a touch softer this morning). Rates markets were weaker on the whole, although that appeared to reflect a reversal in the price action for JGB’s after that big rally the day prior. 10y Bund yields in particular closed nearly 6bps higher yesterday and are hovering around 0.239%.

Flipping our focus over to the latest in Asia now where the attention this morning is on China with the latest inflation numbers having been released. Last month saw an uptick in prices with CPI printing at +1.6% mom. That’s helped nudge the YoY rate up to +2.3% (vs. +1.8% expected) and by fivetenths relative to January, with the print now the highest since July 2014. The move higher does however appear to be driven by a big surge in food prices (+7.3% yoy vs. +4.1% in January) with much of the commentary attributing this to the timing of Chinese New Year. Services inflation on the other hand slowed last month. Encouragingly PPI also saw an uptick to -4.9% yoy (as expected) from -5.3% in the prior month.

Bourses in China have seemingly reacted negatively to the data with the Shanghai Comp (-0.48%) and CSI 300 (-0.39%) both down just after the break, although we warn that markets there have been especially volatile again recently post the midday break that occurs as we go to print. Elsewhere markets are largely following the lead from the US last night and trading with a positive tone. The Nikkei (+1.42%), Hang Seng (+0.57%) and Kospi (+1.18%) in particular all up, while Oil markets are little changed.

There’s also been some focus on New Zealand after a surprising rate cut out of the RBNZ late last night (25bps cut to 2.25%). That caught the vast majority of commentators by surprise with only 2 of 17 economist estimates on Bloomberg forecasting a cut. The Kiwi Dollar is down 2% (vs. the Dollar) from the moments prior to the cut, with the bond curve rallying in tune. This comes after the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged yesterday (as expected). In terms of yesterday’s data, the January wholesale inventories report for the US saw an unexpected +0.3% mom rise, after expectations had been for a - 0.2% decline. That said, trade sales were much weaker than expected during the month (-1.3% mom vs. -0.3% expected) which has pushed the inventoryto- sales ratio to the highest since April 2009. Meanwhile, during the European session yesterday we saw the January industrial production data from the UK modestly undershoot expectations with a +0.3% mom rise (vs. +0.4% expected), although manufacturing production (+0.7% mom vs. +0.2% expected) was markedly better than consensus.

Taking a look at today’s calendar, this morning in Europe we’ll be kick off in Germany where we’ll get the January trade numbers including the export and import data. Swiftly following this will be the January industrial production data out of France before market attention turns towards the ECB meeting at 12.45pm GMT. As a reminder we’ll also hear from ECB President Draghi shortly after. Away from that the latest US initial jobless claims data is due along with the February Monthly Budget Statement.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-10/all-eyes-draghi-markets-unchanged-poised-pounce-or-plunge
 

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