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R.T.M. ~ Frontrunning ~ 13th Ed., Vol.2 ~ Mar 28th - Apr 1st

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#1
Frontrunning: March 28


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2016 07:40 -0400


  • Terror Network’s Web Sprawls Beyond Brussels and Paris (WSJ)
  • Dollar firms, Asia stocks slip as U.S. data, Fed comments awaited (Reuters)
  • Pakistanis hunt militants behind blast that killed at least 70 (Reuters)
  • Biden-Clinton Friction Hangs Over Campaign (WSJ)
  • Japan opens radar station close to disputed isles, drawing angry China response (Reuters)
  • Google Search Technique Aided N.Y. Dam Hacker in Iran (WSJ)
  • Brazilians Scrimp and Save in Unwelcome Surprise for Investors (BBG)
  • Cruz, Trump Trade Blame for Latest Personal Attacks (WSJ)
  • California lawmakers, unions reach $15 minimum wage deal (Reuters)
  • Energy Companies Pay Up to Raise Cash (WSJ)
  • More than 35,000 sign petition to allow guns at RNC (NBC)
  • Japan's NTT Data agrees to buy Dell's IT services unit for $3 billion (Reuters)
  • Belgium Charges More Terror Suspects as Attacks Death Toll Rises (BBG)
  • Belgian police break up street protests as attack investigation widens (Reuters)
  • Red Meat, It's What's for Dinner Again as Beef Prices Tumble (BBG)
  • How a Venezuelan Opposition Leader Secretly Communicates From Solitary Confinement (BBG)


Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

- An Iranian charged with hacking the computer system that controlled a New York dam used a readily available Google search process to identify the vulnerable system, according to people familiar with the federal investigation. (http://on.wsj.com/1RmUiny)

- Avon Products Inc is nearing the settlement of a skirmish with activist investors that would enable the embattled beauty-products retailer to sidestep a proxy fight. The company plans to announce as early as Monday that it has reached an agreement with Barington Capital Group LP and NuOrion Partners AG, which will allow them to approve a new independent director for the company's board, according to people familiar with the matter. (http://on.wsj.com/1qa6M7C)

- At least 65 people were killed and hundreds more injured in an apparent suicide bombing at a park in Pakistan, that an Islamic militant group said was aimed at Christians celebrating Easter. (http://on.wsj.com/1RmMh1V)

- The Syrian regime regained control of the city of Palmyra from ISIS, its first significant victory over the extremist group and one that was aided by heavy Russian air strikes. (http://on.wsj.com/1Uopkh4)

- California appears poised to raise its minimum wage to $15 an hour. Governor Jerry Brown's administration told leaders in the Democratic-controlled state Legislature that he supports boosting the state's minimum wage to $15 by 2022, a person familiar with the matter said. The approach would give the governor some control over an issue that looked set to be decided directly by voters in November. (http://on.wsj.com/1ZFIsXz)



FT

The British Bankers' Association said a survey of its members found that 55 percent believe that the UK remaining in the EU would be in their best interests and 57 percent predicted Brexit would have a negative impact.

Banco Popolare Sc and Banca Popolare di Milano outlined on Thursday their merger plan to create Italy's third biggest bank with a strong foothold in the country's wealthiest northern regions.

UK government is weighing plans that could lead to the privatisation of Land Registry, the agency that records all land and property information in England and Wales.



Britain

The Times

- The British aerospace industry is stuck in a holding pattern as Boeing Co and Airbus Group SE, the world's biggest aircraft manufacturers, signal a slowdown in deliveries this year. (http://thetim.es/1SfvbiF)

- GlaxoSmithKline Plc is working on a plan to give poor countries access to its cancer drugs by allowing competitors access to its intellectual property. (http://thetim.es/1Sfu2Yz)

The Guardian

- George Osborne's budget is handing a tax cut averaging 3,000 pounds ($4,238.40) to some of the wealthiest people in the country who make up just 0.3 percent of the population, the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, has said. (http://bit.ly/1SfuplQ)

- The value of Scottish commercial property transactions in the first quarter of this year is on course to rise by 33 percent to more than 662 million pounds ($935.27 million). (http://thetim.es/1SfuC8C)

The Telegraph

- The UK's largest energy suppliers are under renewed pressure to double their recent tariff cuts as fresh data shows the latest round of reductions has done little to reduce fuel poverty. (http://bit.ly/1SfuSo6)

Sky News

- The embattled FTSE-100 mining group Anglo American Plc is drawing up plans to replace its veteran finance chief as it pursues a radical restructuring triggered by the rout in global commodity prices. (http://bit.ly/1SfvolZ)

The Independent

- Leaving the EU could cut the cost of Easter eggs, pro-Brexit campaigners claimed. Unilateral trade deals with chocolate-producing countries Indonesia, Nigeria and Brazil could remove "punitive tariffs" imposed by Brussels on imports of cocoa-based sweet treats, Vote Leave said. (http://ind.pn/1Sfv2vE)


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-28/frontrunning-march-28
 

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#2
Futures Rise In Thin Trading On Back Of Yen Weakness; Europe Closed


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2016 06:50 -0400


With European markets closed across the continent on Monday as the Easter holiday continues, overnight Asia was busy with the Shanghai Composite letting off some steam, and closing down 0.7% at session lows on concerns the Shanghai and Shenzhen home bubble have been popped prematurely by the politburo.

Japan was a different story with the Yen sliding following a report by the Sankei newspaper that Abe will announce in May his intention to delay the planned April 2017 sales tax hike from 8% to 10%, coupled with additional reports that Japan will unveil a major fiscal stimulus (and just on Friday Abe said he is "not thinking at all about supplemental budget" at this time).

This turned out to be nothing but the latest Japanese market trial balloon, because hours after the report, Abe reiterated that Japan’s sales tax will indeed be raised as scheduled in April 2017 "barring a crisis like the one caused by the collapse of Lehman Brothers", while cabinet secretary Suga said there is no truth in the report that the government has decided to delay the sales tax hike. By the time these denials hit, however, the FX momentum algos were engaged, and the USDJPY jumped, leading to seven straight days of Yen losses, the longest losing streak since October 23 and in the process sending the Nikkei higher by 0.8%.

And thanks to the low volume, illiquid futures market, U.S. equity index futures followed the Japanese rebound, with the E-Mini rising 0.3% to 2034.5 in the thin premarket trade. Dollar falls slightly, reversing earlier gains, while gold also declines. Oil rises for first day in 3. Traders are pricing in a 6% chance of a U.S. rate increase in April, and about 38% probability of a boost in June, according to Fed funds futures. Increasingly many strategists are concerned that the market is underplaying the risk of a June rate cut and as a result odds will have to rise substantially in the coming weeks so the Fed will avoid a "surprise."

Markets Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2035
  • Stoxx 600 closed
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up less than 0.1% to 128
  • Nikkei 225 up 0.8% to 17134
  • Hang Seng closed
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 2958
  • S&P/ASX 200 closed
  • US 10-yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.91%
  • Dollar Index down 0.06% to 96.22
  • WTI Crude futures up 1.1% to $39.88
  • Brent Futures up 0.8% to $40.78
  • Gold spot down less than 0.1% to $1,216
  • Silver spot up 0.3% to $15.23
Top Global News

  • Japan’s NTT to Acquire Dell Units for $3.055b: NTT Data to acquire Dell Systems Corp. and other units related to IT services.
  • Sanders Says He’s Seized Momentum After Crushing Caucus Wins: Sanders received 73% in Washington state, day’s biggest delegate prize, 70% in Hawaii, 82% in Alaska.
  • Bull Market in U.S. Stocks Goes AWOL as History Rewards Patience: S&P 500 Index hasn’t seen a new high in 10 months, longest streak outside a bear market since 1995.
  • Avon Activists Near Deal to Call Off Proxy Fight: WSJ: Deal would allow Barington Capital, NuOrion Partners to approve new independent director.
  • Third Point Warns Seven & I Against Nepotism Deciding CEO: Seven & i CEO Toshifumi Suzuki, 83, is having chronic health problems; investors fear he may try to name his son, Yasuhiro Suzuki, to lead Seven?Eleven Japan, eventually become president of Seven & i, Loeb wrote.
  • Microsoft Said to Meet With Possible Yahoo Bidders Seeking Funds: MSFT met with possible bidders for Yahoo! such as Verizon, private equity firms, who may seek backing from the software maker for their offers.
  • Fed’s Williams Sees ’Huge Impact’ on U.S. From China, Brazil: “The real issue is the global financial and economic developments. There’s uncertainty about what’s happening around the world and how that feeds back to the dollar and the U.S. economy,” Williams, who doesn’t vote on monetary policy this year, told CNBC.
  • ‘Batman v Superman’ Soars in Boost to Warner’s DC Franchise: Film opened with weekend sales of $170.1m in North American theaters, meeting estimates, giving studio a new foundation to build on.
  • Qlik Tech Said to Hire Morgan Stanley for Possible Sale: Reuters: Co. has begun exploring strategic alternatives.
  • Oil Halts Two-Day Slide After U.S. Rig Count Resumes Decline: Rigs targeting oil in the U.S. fell by 15 to 372, according to Baker Hughes.
Looking quickly at regional markets, we start in Asia where equities traded mixed with Topix, Nikkei 400 outperforming and CSI 300, Sensex 30 underperforming. As noted earlier the Chinese weakness was led by concerned about the potential bursting of the housing bubble: "developers are facing some headwinds as these measures are likely to cause immediate negative impact on the demand side,” said Wu Kan, fund manager at JK Life Insurance in Shanghai. “The market is in the stage of building a bottom so we’ll see lots of ups and downs." 8 out of 10 sectors rise with health care, utilities outperforming and finance, energy underperforming.

Over the weekend, we got the latest China Jan.-Feb. Industrial Profit data, which rose 4.8% Y/y while China Feb. Diesel Stocks Increased 38.26% M/m; Shanghai New Home Sales Rise 48% on Week, Uwin Says.

Asian Top News

  • Online Property Companies Soar on China’s Real Estate Recovery: Leju’s ADRs jump most on Bloomberg China-US Equity Index
  • Woes Descend on Japanese IPOs as Stocks Tank on First Day: 6 of 21 cos. this year opened below their offer price
  • Amazon to Flipkart Clash in India’s Nascent E-Commerce Market: Battlefield challenges accelerate pace of innovation
  • Indian Paradox: As Economy Soars Modi Reforms Face Big Headwinds: IMF warns prosperity at risk without structural reforms
  • Pakistan Vows to Hunt Terrorists After Easter Sunday Carnage: At least 65 people killed, death toll may rise further
European markets are closed today due to the Easter holiday.

European Top News

  • Belgium Conducts More Raids in Aftermath of Terror Attacks: Authorities conducted 13 raids in Belgium on Sunday, detaining nine people as part of their efforts to prevent further terrorist attacks.
  • Abengoa Wins Support of Creditors for Extension: Europa Press: Co. lined up enough support from creditors to ask court in Seville for an extension of several months in process of negotiation of financial restructuring; Abengoa Presents Standstill Request, Has 75% Creditor Support
FX markets are in consolidation mode for the most part, with the run up to US payrolls on Friday a usually quiet affair. This should keep many specs on the side-lines for now, but there looks to be some respite for GBP despite the uncertainty over the Brexit vote overwhelmingly restrictive. Nevertheless, Cable has recovered towards 1.4200, but any move through the figure should find plenty of sellers from 1.4225-50. EUR/GBP should find some support from the mid .7800's also, though larger support not until the mid-.7700's.

USD/JPY has made some decent gains from the mid 111.00's, but will start to find better offers ahead of 114.00, with 113.65¬70 capping the Asian session today. The commodity currencies are still looking heavy, but with Oil up off the lows, USD/CAD is threatening a return through 1.3200. All very tight so far, with much of Europe away, but North American players may take advantage of thin markets.

In Commodities, the energy complex was in a consolidation mode amid holiday thinned trading volumes and ahead of the eagerly awaited meeting by oil producing countries on April 17th to discuss the output freeze plan.

Bulletin Headline Summary from Bloomberg

  • Treasuries fall in overnight trading while European markets closed for holiday and Asian equity markets mixed; week’s U.S. auctions begin today with $26b 2Y notes, WI yield 0.87%, compares with 0.752% awarded in Feb., was 21st straight 2Y auction to stop through or even with WI yield at bidding deadline.
  • Hedge funds are crowding into U.S. Treasuries, and that has bond traders bracing for more turbulence. While the Federal Reserve doesn’t break out hedge-fund ownership, a group seen as a proxy increased its holdings to a record $1.27 trillion
  • Japanese primary dealers say negative bond yields are here to stay in 2016; bond investors are still trying to adjust to the conditions that have turned yields on 70% of the market negative; Japanese banks are sitting on profits made last year and can withstand the impact of negative rates, according to the Bank of Japan
  • Gold has been thrown onto the defensive by a resurgent dollar, sinking to the lowest in more than a month as the U.S. currency’s rally hurts the allure of the metal that’s been the best-performing commodity of 2016
  • Oil’s rebound to about $40 a barrel means some investors are nursing losses after betting that Saudi Arabia would abandon its three-decade-old currency peg
  • It’s been barely a month since investors first started betting on a copper rally, and they’re already on the retreat. Money managers cut their wagers on price gains for a second week, pulling back just before futures capped the worst slump in a month
  • Terrorism probes advanced across Europe in the wake of last week’s deadly bombings in Brussels, with suspects arrested in Italy and the Netherlands, and Belgium carrying out police raids in several areas
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mostly unchanged; European equity markets closed, Asian mixed; U.S. equity-index futures rise. WTI crude oil higher; gold and copper fall
US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, Feb., est. -$62.2b (prior -$62.228b)
  • 8:30am: Personal Income, Feb., est. 0.1% (prior 0.5%)
    • Personal Spending, Feb., est. 0.1% (prior 0.5%)
    • Real Personal Spending, Feb., est. 0.1% (prior 0.4%)
    • PCE Deflator m/m, Feb., est. -0.1% (prior 0.1%)
    • PCE Deflator y/y, Feb., est. 1% (prior 1.3%)
    • PCE Core m/m, Feb., est. 0.2% (prior 0.3%)
    • PCE Core y/y, Feb., est. 1.8% (prior 1.7%)
  • 10:00am Pending Home Sales m/m, Feb., est. 1.1% (prior -2.5%)
    • Pending Home Sales y/y, Feb., est. -0.5% (prior -0.9%)
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Mfg Activity, March, est. -26 (prior -31.8)
  • 11:00am: U.S. to announce plans for auction of 4W bills
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $31b 3M bills, $26b 6M bills
  • 1:00pm: U.S. to sell $26b 2Y bills

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-28/futures-rise-thin-trading-back-yen-weakness-europe-closed
 

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#5
Paul Craig Roberts-Neoconservatives Driving World to War
Greg Hunter


Published on Mar 27, 2016
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts has a new book out titled “The Neoconservative Threat To World Order.” In it, he talks about the dreadful shape of the global economy and how war might be forced on the world. Dr. Roberts, who is also a former Assistant Treasury Secretary, says, “The Neoconservative ideology is American world hegemony . . . this means you have to subdue the others, and this includes Russia and China. These are two nuclear powers with massive military capabilities, and they are in the way of the Neoconservative agenda of World Empire . . . . So, the Neoconservatives are driving the United States and Western Europe into conflict with Russia and China. Russia and China are not going to give up and be American vassals. . . . Our economy is a house of cards. It’s held up by the Federal Reserve. The question is how long can they hold it up? . . . There is no way around the coming war unless the American empire begins unraveling, which it could do.”

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, author of the new book “The Neoconservative Threat To World Order.”

All links can be found on USAWatchdog.com: http://usawatchdog.com/criminal-banke...

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#10
Gold, the Misery Index, and Insanity
By: Gary Christenson
Suppose the U.S. national debt in 2032 exceeds $80 trillion and the system has not yet imploded … what will be a fair price for an ounce of gold or an average house? What will that 30 year T-bond you bought in 2016 be worth in purchasing power in 2032? What will be the purchasing power of your saving account or retirement account or Social Security check? Debt, desperation and delusional thinking do not buy groceries, shelter, and health, or create a vibrant economy.

Open Letter to the Next President, Part 3
By: John Mauldin
Today we continue my series of open letters to the presidential candidates. In the meantime, we’ve drawn a little closer to knowing whom the two major parties will nominate. A few people are vowing to consider minor parties, too. In any case, whoever replaces Barack Obama will face a world of challenges. The good news is that most (not all) of the challenges are manageable – given the willingness to make very difficult choices.

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Slightly Higher
By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com
Gold gained $5.63 to $1222.83 by a little before 10AM EST before it chopped back lower in the next few hours of trade, but it still ended with a gain of 0.23%. Silver rose to as high as $15.348 and ended with a gain of 0.13%.
 

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#11
Frontrunning: March 29


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2016 07:34 -0400

  • Headline of the day: Oil prices fall as investors' faith in rally wanes (Reuters)
  • Europe shares, dollar gain as investors look to Yellen (Reuters)
  • Chinese Bidder for Starwood Has Mysterious Ownership Structure (WSJ)
  • Germany wants refugees to integrate or lose residency rights (Reuters)
  • BlackRock Joins Pimco Warning Investors to Seek Inflation Hedge (BBG)
  • Goldman Sachs and Bear Stearns: A Financial-Crisis Mystery Is Solved (WSJ)
  • Contract Workforce Outpaces Growth in Silicon-Valley Style ‘Gig’ Jobs (WSJ)
  • Hugh Hendry has a friend: China Bull Who Beat 99% of All Bond Funds Says Yuan Drop Is Over (BBG)
  • Obama says journalists partly to blame for tone of presidential race (Reuters)
  • Newt Gingrich: Wives spat is Trump's 'wake-up call' (Politico)
  • Europe's Higher-Yielding Bonds Benefit as ECB Prepares QE Boost (BBG)
  • Brazil party set to abandon Rousseff, making impeachment more likely (Reuters)
  • Under the Hood of Japan’s Jobs Data: Part-Timers on Low Pay (BBG)
  • Filed Your Taxes? Good. (Or Is It?) (BBG)
  • For banks, ECB policy experiment opens north-south divide (Reuters)
  • Once-Secret Pentagon Agency Asks Industry to Help Find New Ideas (BBG)
  • Lenders ‘Freaking Out’ Over London Luxury Home Woes (BBG)
  • Japan public divided as laws easing limits on military take effect (Reuters)
  • Banker Accused of $25 Million Fraud Arose From a Gilded Legacy (BBG)
  • Fed's Williams Sees Gradual Hikes as U.S. Economy Stays on Track (BBG)


Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

- The U.S. government said Monday it had cracked a terrorist's iPhone without Apple Inc's help and is seeking to drop its legal case to force the tech giant to unlock the device. (http://on.wsj.com/1RCcaK2)

- Prosecutors charged former Blackstone Group LP executive Andrew Caspersen, most recently an executive at Park Hill, with stealing $25 million from investors and scheming to defraud investors of $70 million more.(http://on.wsj.com/1UqsfGc)

- Low-fare startup Virgin America Inc may soon have a new owner. Takeover offers from two other U.S. airlines - JetBlue Airways Corp and Alaska Air Group Inc - are due by the end of the week, according to a person familiar with the matter, in what could signal the latest wave of consolidation in the industry. (http://on.wsj.com/1UrgAqw)

- A study by researchers at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai showed that results for cholesterol tests done by Theranos Inc differed enough from the two largest laboratory companies in the U.S. that they could throw off doctors' medical decisions. (http://on.wsj.com/1UxKrxU)

- Yahoo Inc has given potential suitors two weeks to submit preliminary bids for its core Web business and Asian assets, according to people familiar with the matter. (http://on.wsj.com/1VQGCDh)



FT

*I Squared Capital is buying Irish energy firm Viridian Group Plc in a transaction worth 1 billion euros ($1.12 billion), to gain entry as a contender into the dynamic UK energy market.(http://bit.ly/1XZerQZ)

*Education Secretary Nicky Morgan, a supporter of the campaign for Britain to remain in the EU, will say in a speech that young people should speak out in favour of the EU and convince their elders against Britain's exit. (http://bit.ly/1VQDg2R)

*The FBI has abandoned its bid to force access Apple Inc's to help it break into the San Bernardino shooter's iPhone after it found a way to access the device's data without the company's help. (http://bit.ly/1XZdvvU)

*The Ministry of Defence on Monday awarded contracts of service to BAE Systems Plc, Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc and Babcock International Group Plc worth 372 million pounds to maintain and upgrade the Hawk jets used by the Royal Air Force and Royal Navy. (http://bit.ly/1VQDoPV)



NYT

- The Justice Department said on Monday that it had found a way to unlock an iPhone without help from Apple, allowing the agency to withdraw its legal effort to compel the tech company to assist in a mass-shooting investigation. (http://nyti.ms/25t5IvW)

- A federal judge in San Juan on Monday threw out a new tax that Puerto Rico had tried to impose on the American retailing giant Walmart, calling it unlawful. (http://nyti.ms/1UytSBU)

- On Monday, federal prosecutors charged Andrew Caspersen, a Wall Street executive, in a criminal complaint with securities and wire fraud in what they called a "brazen" scheme to defraud investors - including a foundation affiliated with a major New York hedge fund - of up to $95 million. (http://nyti.ms/1LVPyot)

- Pandora Media replaced Chief Executive Brian McAndrews with Tim Westergren, a co-founder of Pandora and its former chief strategy officer. (http://nyti.ms/25tvmkp)

- Dell has agreed to sell its Perot Systems subsidiary, which provides information technology services to hospitals and governments, to the Japanese technology company NTT Data for almost $3.1 billion. (http://nyti.ms/1qcJVIQ)



Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Gareth Joyce, president of Mercedes-Benz Canada Inc, has resigned after less than three months on the job. (http://bit.ly/1pHazsM)

** Canadian Craigslist rival VarageSale's Chief executive, Carl Mercier, said on Monday that he was promoting Andrew Sider to CEO, while he would take on the job of chief product officer. (http://bit.ly/1pHb4CY)

** Sick days are costing Ontario school boards C$1 billion ($758.90 million) a year, according to a report by School Boards' Co-operative Inc. (http://bit.ly/1pHbjho)

NATIONAL POST

** Canadian miner Columbus Gold Corp launched a proxy fight against Eastmain Resources Inc on Monday. (http://bit.ly/1pHbNEn)

** In his zeal to investigate reports of rampant harassment in the workplace, RCMP Commissioner Bob Paulson was formally accused of being a bully. The 2012 allegation prompted the then public safety minister Steven Blaney to probe Paulson's conduct and force the commissioner to apologize for exercising "bad judgment." (http://bit.ly/1UStrlq)



Britain

The Times

- ConocoPhillips is drawing up plans to shut down one of the North Sea's biggest gas pipeline systems in a move that threatens to knock out 10 percent of the UK's gas capacity and a string of active fields. (http://thetim.es/1Si9DlE)

- A multimillion-pound Revenue & Customs publicity campaign to stamp out tax evasion and avoidance used an advertising agency ultimately controlled in an offshore haven. HMRC spent more than 6 million pounds($8.55 million)on the campaigns, including 300,000 pounds specifically on offshore evasion. (http://thetim.es/1SiaSRG)

The Guardian

- The cost of a first class stamp will rise to 64p this week, taking the price increase to 100 percent over the past decade. First class stamp prices are rising by 1p, while a second class stamp will rise by the same amount to 55p. (http://bit.ly/1Si9wX9)

- Britain's manufacturers are struggling to recruit skilled workers and keep pace with global technology, according to business group EEF's report that criticises the government for lack of support. (http://bit.ly/1SiaIdg)

The Telegraph

- CEO of the takeover target Premier Foods Plc, Gavin Darby, has claimed a rival bidder could challenge its American suitor McCormick, as he defended the company's heavily criticised decision to reject a 60p per share offer. (http://bit.ly/1Si9Mpd)

- More than 9000 jobs in Port Talbot hang in the balance as crunch talks begin at Tata Steel Ltd in India over the Welsh site's future. Fears are rife among workers that the Indian multinational may pull the plug on the loss-making plant. (http://bit.ly/1Siai6x)

Sky News

- Notonthehighstreet, an online marketplace, has been approached by a number of new investors about injecting funds into the business to allow it to accelerate its expansion. (http://bit.ly/1Si9m22)

The Independent

- UK think tank Smith Institute, found that two-thirds of employees say they are working longer than two years ago, but only 10 percent believe they are more productive. A quarter of staff believed their productivity had declined over the period. (http://ind.pn/1Si9QW3)


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-29/frontrunning-march-29
 

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#12
Futures, Oil Dip On Stronger Dollar Ahead Of "Hawkish" Yellen Speech


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2016 06:47 -0400


With Europe back from Easter break, we are seeing a modest continuation of the dollar strength witnessed every day last week, which in turn is pressuring oil and the commodity complex, and leading to some selling in US equity futures (down 0.2% to 2024) ahead of today's main event which is Janet Yellen's speech as the Economic Club of New York at 12:20pm, an event which judging by risk assets so far is expected to be far more hawkish than dovish: after all the S&P 500 is north of 2,000 for now.

Crude slid below $39 a barrel in New York in a fourth day of losses while commodity currencies such as Russia’s ruble and the Norwegian krone weakened. Euro-area sovereign securities climbed as lower energy prices dimmed the outlook for inflation and the European Central Bank prepared to increase its asset-purchase plan by 20 billion euros ($22 billion) a month in April. Treasuries advanced and U.S. equity-index futures dropped before a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and several key pieces of economic data this week culminating in payrolls figures.

The shaky sentiment was summarized by Pedro Ricardo Santos, a broker at X-Trade Brokers DM SA in Lisbon. who told Bloomberg that "the correction in oil prices is outweighing any optimism about the economy in the markets. Investors will also expect a little more hawkishness from Yellen’s speech today. Although the likelihood of a rate increase in April is practically zero, many are looking for two more hikes by the end of the year."

Market Snapshot:

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2024
  • Stoxx 600 up 0.3% to 336
  • FTSE 100 up 0.3% to 6126
  • DAX up 0.7% to 9920
  • German 10Yr yield down 3bps to 0.15%
  • Italian 10Yr yield down 6bps to 1.24%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield down 7bps to 1.45%
  • S&P GSCI Index down 0.9% to 325
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.5% to 127
  • Nikkei 225 down 0.2% to 17104
  • Hang Seng up 0.1% to 20366
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.3% to 2920
  • S&P/ASX 200 down 1.6% to 5005
  • US 10-yr yield down 1bp to 1.87%
  • Dollar Index up 0.13% to 96.07
  • WTI Crude futures down 1.4% to $38.83
  • Brent Futures down 1.8% to $39.70
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,218
  • Silver spot down 0.8% to $15.12
Global Top News:

  • Most Passengers on Hijacked EgyptAir Flight Are Released
  • U.S. Drops Apple Case After Getting Into Terrorist’s IPhone
  • BlackRock Joins Pimco Warning Investors to Seek Inflation Hedge
  • Yahoo Said to Set April 11 Deadline for Preliminary Bids: WSJ
  • Marriott Faces Prospect of Losing Starwood After Months of Work
  • Biotech Trovagene Fires, Sues Its CEO, CFO; Shares Tumble
  • Macquarie’s Wins $3.4b Cleco Deal Approval With 2 Promises
Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia stocks traded mostly negative following a subdued lead from Wall St. where discouraging data and a lack of EU participants kept risk-sentiment in check. ASX 200 (-0.77%) returned from its prolonged weekend to extend on last week's financials weakness, while Nikkei 225 (-0.25%) was heavily pressured from the open following the largest decline in retail sales since 2014 and mass ex. dividends in Japan which totalled over 75% of Topix shares. Chinese markets (Shanghai Comp. -1.3%) conformed to the downbeat tone in the region and continued its recent declining trend with participants cautious ahead of several large named earnings reports and key PM! releases this week. 10yr JGBs traded lower with participants side-lined ahead of fiscal year-end, while the BoJ also refrained from entering the market with its bond purchase program.

Asia Top News

  • China Bull Who Beat 99% of All Bond Funds Says Yuan Drop Is Over: Seaman sees yuan rising on average 2-3% each year over decades
  • Offshore Yuan Gains as PBOC Raises Fixing, Fed Rate Bets Recede: Central bank boosts reference rate by most since March 18
  • RBA Rate Cut in Response to Stronger Aussie Seen by Bond Bull: Monetary easing more likely in 2H, Gor says
  • India Open to Importing U.S. Oil in Effort to Diversify Sources: India purchasing Iranian crude and engaging in other projects
  • Malaysia Building Society Becoming Islamic After Failed Mergers: Lender has stopped offering conventional loans, CEO says
European participants return from their long weekends today to see equities firmly in the green (Eurostoxx: +0.3%). Stocks have benefitted from upside in financials, with this the best performing sector in Europe. Material names underperform amid downside in the commodity complex, with a bid in USD weighing on the likes of WTI, which resides around the USD 39/bbl level, and base metals which are broadly in the red.

European Top News

  • ECB’s Gloomy Price Outlook to Be Confirmed Just as QE Grows
  • EasyJet Leads Britain’s Stock Advances After Week of Declines
  • Volkswagen May Suspend Dividend on Emissions Probe, DPA-AFX Says
  • Stocks Gain in Europe as Crude Extends Declines; Dollar Rebounds
In FX, markets are back to full strength today, but with USD sentiment hanging on the word(s) of Fed chair Yellen — due to speak in NY just after the London close - trading has been mixed, with very little sense of direction as yet. We saw some early selling in Cable and EUR/USD, but this proved short lived, though the highs seen in thin trade Monday have yet to be matched. That said, a softer tone in EUR/GBP is giving Cable better support than that seen last week.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major peers, rose less than 0.1 percent. While it pared its monthly drop to 2.5 percent, that’s still biggest since April. "The dollar is really not your best bet right now,” Vassili Serebriakov, a foreign-exchange strategist at BNP Paribas SA in New York, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “Every time you have the dollar rising, concerns about China devaluation, concerns about emerging-market growth, concerns about commodity markets - those start to resurface."

Odds of the Fed raising rates at its June meeting have fallen to 38 percent, from 42 percent a week ago, according to Fed funds futures data compiled by Bloomberg. The Japanese yen weakened 0.1 percent at 113.56 per dollar, falling for an eighth day. Norway’s krone and Australia’s dollar were the worst performing major currencies.

In commodities, amid the continued appreciation in the USD-index, the energy complex has subsequently been pressured with WTI crude futures residing near session lows having broken below yesterday's low at USD 38.86 and is now eyeing last week's low at USD 38.33. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped further after sliding 5 percent over the past three sessions amid ongoing concern over a global glut in the commodity. Weekly U.S. government data is forecast to show another increase in crude stockpiles. Brent futures in London lost 2.1 percent to $39.42. Indonesia will attend a meeting of major oil exporters in Doha next month to consider an output freeze, according to Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Sudirman Said.

Spot gold fell 0.2 percent to $1,218.90 an ounce, pressured by the aforementioned recovery in the greenback, with the precious metal relatively range bound for much of the European morning.

In the base metals complex, copper and iron ore prices were also pressured amid the widespread cautious tone, with the latter falling by as much as 5% to a 3-week low alongside weakness in steel. Zinc and tin also declined, while aluminum rose as the London Metal Exchange reopened after two days of public holidays.

On today's calendar we get the January Case-Shiller, the latest Consumer Confidence print and the API weekly inventory number, but the key highlight will be Janet Yellen's speech at 12:20pm at the Economic Club of New York, while former Goldmanite and current Dallas Fed president Steven Kaplan will speak in Austun at 4pm.



Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • European bourses kick off the week in positive fashion as participants return from their elongated break with notable outperformance in financials.
  • USD-index stages a slight recovery as investors look towards comments from Fed Chair Yellen to subsequently shed light on the path of the Fed's tightening cycle.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US API Crude Oil Inventories, Fed's Yellen (Voter, Soft Dove), Williams (Non Voter, Neutral), Kaplan (Non-Voter, Soft Dove)
  • Treasuries rally in overnight trading, global equity markets mostly higher and oil drops; Fed’s Yellen will speak this morning and U.S. housing prices will be released.
  • U.S. auctions continue today with $34b 5Y notes, WI yield 1.355%, compares with 1.169% awarded in Feb., lowest 5Y auction stop since 1.045% in May 2013
  • Central bankers have managed to steer the world economy clear of a recession while leaving it stuck in the same rut that led to its troubles in the first place
  • The Bank of England said banks should begin building up capital earmarked to support lending when the economy turns down, as the outlook for U.K. financial stability worsens
  • BlackRock joined Pimco in recommending inflation-linked bonds and warning costs are poised to pick up. “Stabilizing oil prices and a tighter labor market could contribute to rising actual, and expected, U.S. inflation,” Richard Turnill, BlackRock’s global chief investment strategist, wrote Monday
  • Commodities including oil and copper are at risk of steep declines as recent advances aren’t fully grounded in improved fundamentals, according to Barclays Plc, which warned that prices may tumble as investors rush for the exits; With energy stocks enjoying the biggest rebound since the beginning of the oil rout, short sellers have shifted their sights to regional banks that do business with the industry
  • While Japan’s labor market is tight with a jobless rate of just 3.3%, almost 38% of workers are now part-timers who are generally on lower pay and have less job security.
  • $4.65 IG credit priced yesterday, MTD $149.455b, YTD $443.705b; $1.4b HY priced yesterday, MTD 24 deals for $15.365b, YTD 49 deals for $30.22b
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mixed; European and Asian equity markets mixed; U.S. equity-index futures drop. WTI crude oil, gold and copper fall


US Event Calendar

  • 8:55am: Redbook weekly sales
  • 9am: S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 y/y NSA, Jan., est. 5.75% (prior 5.74%)
  • 10am: Consumer Confidence Index, March, est. 94 (prior 92.2)
  • 12:20pm: Fed’s Yellen speaks at Economic Club of New York
  • 1pm: Fed’s Kaplan speaks in Austin; 4pm at University of Texas
  • 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories


DB's Jim Reid completes the overnight wrap

So as we approach the final few days of what’s been one of the more volatile Q1’s in memory, the month of March has certainly been far kinder to risk assets relative to what we saw in January and February. A big rally across commodity markets and notably Oil has more than played its part, as has improving US economic data, a more dovish than expected Fed and of course the ECB bazooka. Over the holiday break newsflow has been fairly light and instead we’re looking ahead to a couple of events this week which will see the focus switch back once again to the Fed. The first of those will come this afternoon when we are due to hear from Fed Chair Yellen, speaking at the Economic Club of New York (scheduled for 4.20pm GMT). The speech looks set to take on slightly more importance than normal in light of what’s been a chorus of relatively hawkish Fedspeak over the past ten days or so. In that time we’ve heard Bullard, Lacker, Lockhart and Williams all hint at the possibility of a hike as soon as April or June, with Bullard the latest to suggest that ‘the Fed forecasts suggest that the next hike may not be far off’. This contrasts to the overall dovish view that we got from the Fed at the FOMC meeting earlier this month. Despite the comments in recent days, our US economists are still of the view that they doubt Yellen will sound overtly hawkish this afternoon and while she may reiterate that April remains a ‘live meeting’, they doubt that she will send a strong hike signal for next month. Markets are still yet to be convinced that the Fed will move next quarter, with the odds of an April hike a lowly 6% and a June hike just 38%, which is more or less where it has been since the FOMC meeting.

The other big event this week and another hurdle for the Fed is the March employment report which we’ll get this Friday. We’ll give a preview of this later in the week but the early market expectations are for a 210k print (after the 242k February number), a modest tick up in earnings and no change in the unemployment rate. As usual we’ve got the full run down of the week ahead at the end.

Taking a look at the latest in Asia this morning, it’s been a softer start on the whole with the bulk of bourses currently in the red. In China the Shanghai Comp is currently down -1.14%, while the tech-heavy Shenzhen is down a sharper -2.01%. The Nikkei (-0.49%) and Hang Seng (-0.26%) have seen more modest losses and are off their lows, although in Australia the ASX has tumbled -1.49% (with financials weighing the index down). Only the Kospi (+0.37%) is trading in positive territory as we go to print. Oil markets are reflecting the slightly damper tone this morning with WTI down close to half a percent, while credit markets are close to unchanged. Some mixed employment and retail sales data out of Japan this morning has seen the Yen trade in a fairly choppy manner meanwhile.

Moving on. In the period we’ve been off much of the newsflow has centered around a number of economic releases out of the US. Recapping the prints from yesterday firstly, on the inflation front we saw the core PCE print for February rise a less than expected +0.1% mom (vs. +0.2% expected) which has had the result of keeping the YoY rate unchanged at +1.7% (and a tenth above the Fed’s forecast for this year). The deflator was down -0.1% and in line with the consensus estimate. Away from this we saw personal spending rise +0.1% mom as expected last month, but more telling was the four-tenths of a percent downward revision to the January print. Personal income was a modest beat at +0.2% mom (vs. +0.1% expected). It’s worth noting that post yesterday’s PCE data the Atlanta Fed has now significantly downgraded their Q1 GDP forecast to 0.6% from 1.4% previously after revising down their real consumer spending growth forecasts.

Elsewhere yesterday, housing market data was reserved for the latest pending home sales data which revealed a bumper +3.5% mom rise for the month of February (vs. +1.2% expected) which was the biggest monthly gain in 12 months. Meanwhile the advance goods trade balance last month revealed a slightly wider than expected deficit ($62.9bn vs. $62.2bn expected) which is the widest in six months. The other notable release yesterday was further evidence of improvement in the manufacturing sector in the US. The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey bounced 18.2pts this month and although at a still lowly -13.6, is now at the highest level since November.

There was some notable data for us to highlight on Friday too, with an unexpected upward revision to the third estimate of Q4 GDP in the US to 1.4% qoq (from 1.0%). An upward revision to final sales boosted the number, as did a less negative contribution from inventories. Concerning in the details however was the first estimate of corporate profits in the quarter, with the data revealing a -7.8% qoq decline which is the biggest fall since Q1 2011. The -11.5% yoy decline for profits is now the worst since Q4 2008.

Quickly recapping the price action yesterday, with the bulk of markets shut in Europe for holidays it was an unsurprisingly quiet session in the US (with one eye on the events this week too) although both the S&P 500 (+0.05%) and Dow (+0.11%) did manage to eke out small gains with the former bringing to an end three consecutive days of (albeit modest) losses. The rally in the US Dollar, which had coincided with that run of hawkish rhetoric sputtered however with the Dollar index closing -0.34% for its first loss since the 17th of March.

Commodity markets were fairly subdued also with WTI closing out the day with a -0.18% loss and just below $40/bbl. Credit markets were near enough unchanged. Away from the US there was no negative reaction in Sterling (in fact closed up +0.86%) after Reuters ran a story on the weekend suggesting of some notable support for the pro-Brexit camp. According to the article, the report highlighted that 250 business leaders have backed the pro-Brexit campaign according to the Vote Leave group, although the Sunday Times did suggest that there were some notable omissions from the list which had some questioning the overall reliability of the headlines.

Over in the US this afternoon the notable release will be the March consumer confidence reading (where expectations are for a 1.8pt rise to 94.0), while the January S&P/Case-Shiller house price index for January is also due out. We’ll also hear from Fed Chair Yellen this afternoon when she is due to speak at the economic club of New York, while we’ll also hear from Williams and Kaplan today, Evans on Wednesday, Dudley on Thursday and finally Mester on Friday.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-29/futures-oil-dip-stronger-dollar-ahead-hawkish-yellen-speech
 

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#15
HORRIFIC ECONOMIC DATA & GOLD CARTEL LOSING CONTROL | Andy Hoffman
FinanceAndLiberty.com


Published on Mar 29, 2016
IN THIS INTERVIEW:
- The Dollar Index has nothing to do with the price of gold ►0:51
- How manipulated is the gold price? ►5:53
- Why isn't the stock market crashing amid horrific economic data? ►8:30
- Money printing created the migrancy crisis in Europe ►11:17
- Will the UK leave the EU? ►14:04
- Trump wants to audit the Fed and likes the idea of a gold standard...but he wouldn't actually produce change ►16:17

FINANCE AND LIBERTY:
SUBSCRIBE (it's FREE!) to "Finance and Liberty" for more interviews and financial insight ►http://bit.ly/Subscription-Link
Website ► http://FinanceAndLiberty.com
Like us on Facebook ►http://fb.com/FinanceAndLiberty
Follow us on Twitter ►http://twitter.com/Finance_Liberty
Google Plus ►http://Gplus.to/FinanceLiberty
Title and video graphics by Josiah Johnson Studios ►http://JosiahJohnsonStudios.com

DISCLAIMER: The financial and political opinions expressed in this interview are those of the guest and not necessarily of "Finance and Liberty" or its staff. Opinions expressed in this video do not constitute personalized investment advice and should not be relied on for making investment decisions.
 

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#17
Shipping & Energy 03/29:

Peak Oil Review - Mar 28
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2016-03-28/peak-oil-review-mar-28

Norwegian shipowners see tighter capital access as weak markets continue
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL5N1712LW

Cosco Pacific Profit Beats Estimate on Write-Back of Provisions
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...it-beats-estimate-on-write-back-of-provisions

Firmer vessel demand pushes Baltic sea freight index up
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL3N1713PS

Arch Coal paid execs $8M in bonuses on eve of bankruptcy
http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060034093

ILWU endorses Senator Bernie Sanders for President
http://www.ilwu.org/ilwu-endorses-senator-bernie-sanders-for-president/

Oil Companies, Vancouver Port At Standoff Over August Deadline
http://www.opb.org/news/article/vancouver-oil-terminal-energy-project-august-deadline/

Port of L.A. helped pay for cleaner China Shipping vessels--which later stopped docking in L.A.
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-china-shipping-20160324-story.html

Port Of Tacoma Commissioners Say They Need More Answers About Proposed Methanol Plant
http://www.kplu.org/post/port-tacom...ed-more-answers-about-proposed-methanol-plant

Panama Canal Workforce Receive Training to Operate New Locks
https://www.ajot.com/news/panama-canal-workforce-receive-training-to-operate-new-locks

West Coast Port Volumes Growing, Thanks to the Strong Dollar
http://www.thestreet.com/video/1350...umes-growing-thanks-to-the-strong-dollar.html

Box rate bounce on Asia-Europe ocean trade may bode well for this week's GRIs
http://theloadstar.co.uk/container-...e-asia-europe-trade-may-bode-well-weeks-gris/

Oil Rally Unwinds Ahead Of Inventory Data
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Rally-Unwinds-Ahead-Of-Inventory-Data.html

Which Energy Companies Are Most At Risk From The Spring Redetermination?
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...-At-Risk-From-The-Spring-Redetermination.html

US prosecutors want max of 1 year in prison for ex-Massey Energy CEO
http://www.mining.com/us-prosecutors-want-max-1-year-prison-ex-massey-energy-ceo/

Two Tankers in a Race for First U.S. Oil to Japan
http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/two-tankers-in-a-race-for-first-us-oil-to-japan

Iran's Oil Output Promises May Be Hard to Achieve
http://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/irans-oil-output-promises-may-be-hard-to-achieve
 

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#19
Just whom is gold really so 'dangerous' to?
By: Chris Powell, GATA
And yet Kaminska concludes her parody of financial journalism by declaring that "gold is most valuable to society when it becomes a currency" -- as if gold isn't already a currency and as if governments and central banks aren't doing their damnedest to prevent the monetary metal from becoming even more of a currency competing with their own currencies.

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain Almost 2% and 1% on Yellen’s Caution
By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com
Gold saw slight losses in Asia before it climbed up to $1228.69 by midmorning in New York and then chopped back lower at times, but it then jumped to new session highs after fed chair Yellen began her speech and the yellow metal ended with a gain of 1.75%. Silver rose to as high as $15.351 and ended with a gain of 0.92%.
 

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#20
Frontrunning: March 30


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2016 07:40 -0400


  • Bad News Is Great News: Cautious Yellen drives world stocks near 2016 peaks (Reuters)
  • Yellen Spurs Global Stock Rally as Oil Rebounds, Dollar Tumbles (BBG)
  • Trump drops pledge to back Republican presidential nominee other than himself (Reuters)
  • Second judge says Clinton email setup may have been in 'bad faith' (Reuters)
  • Brussels Airport Remains Shut as Police Hunt Third Attacker (BBG)
  • Europe Traders Aren't Waiting Around to See If Rebound Holds (BBG)
  • Western Digital Bond Sale Is Test for Junk Market (WSJ)
  • Owe Back Taxes? Lose Your Passport (BBG)
  • Most Americans support torture against terror suspects (Reuters)
  • Europe's Bond Shortage Means Draghi Is About to Shock the Market (BBG)
  • Tata confirms plan to sell UK steel businesses (FT)
  • Corporate Bond Yields Touch Record Lows in Europe's Periphery (WSJ)
  • Zuma's Friends the Guptas Face Probe by South African Police (BBG)
  • Another Condo Bust Looms in Miami (WSJ)
  • Obama Announces New Measures to Combat Heroin, Painkiller Abuse (WSJ)
  • Foxconn agrees to buy Sharp after slashing original offer (Reuters)
  • Hackers Breach Law Firms, Including Cravath Swaine and Weil Gotshal (WSJ)


Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

- Tata Steel of India, one of the world's largest steelmakers, said Tuesday that it would explore a sale of its struggling UK holdings, including its Port Talbot plant in Wales, a move that could threaten thousands of local jobs. (http://on.wsj.com/1qgPy8W)

- Western Digital Corp is offering investors higher yields on $5.6 billion in junk bonds backing its takeover of SanDisk Corp, the latest sign that demand for low-rated debt remains mixed despite a market rally over the past six weeks. (http://on.wsj.com/1q0tEa9)

- Egyptian authorities said the EgyptAir hijacker arrested in Cyprus with fake explosives had no known links to any terrorist groups, and a Cypriot official described him as being in a 'fragile mental state'. (http://on.wsj.com/1SsZODV)

- Audio-sharing platform SoundCloud on Tuesday began selling paid subscriptions to one of the biggest music catalogs online, a move that will test the willingness of consumers to pay for tunes from a service they are accustomed to using free of charge. (http://on.wsj.com/22XC4Ni)

- U.S. President Barack Obama announced new steps Tuesday to combat a deadly epidemic of heroin and painkiller abuse in the U.S., including improving access to drug-treatment programs and expanding distribution of a drug that can reverse overdoses. (http://on.wsj.com/1UBlXEb)



FT

*The British steel industry suffered a severe blow as Tata Steel Ltd, the Indian steel giant, confirmed it was about to put its entire UK business up for sale. (http://bit.ly/1VSjtAn)

*Senior engineers at French utility EDF SA have estimated a two-year delay for Hinkley Point nuclear project in the UK and suggested reassembling its reactor technology. (http://bit.ly/1VS8W8d)

*UniCredit SpA, Italy's largest bank by assets, is in talks with the Roman government to seek support for capital raising targeted at 2 billion euros ($2.26 billion) at mutual bank Popolare di Vicenza, according to five people with direct knowledge of the matter. (http://bit.ly/1VSkl80)

*Bank of America Corp is extending caution to its senior staff not to use the word "Brexit" while talking to clients as it tries to keep its distance from the debate over the UK's membership in the European Union. (http://bit.ly/1VSkata)



NYT

- Spotify is about to close on a $1 billion deal that would double the amount of financing the music-streaming company has raised since its founding a decade ago.(http://nyti.ms/1Y0e4FW)

- With an eye to President Obama's legacy and his own, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew on Wednesday will hail the success of economic sanctions against Iran and other global offenders, but warn that their overuse could threaten the primacy of the United States and the dollar in the world economy. (http://nyti.ms/1RxQI6v)

- Attorneys general from Massachusetts and the Virgin Islands announced Tuesday that they would join Eric T. Schneiderman, New York's attorney general, in his investigation into whether Exxon Mobil lied in decades past to investors and the public about the threat of climate change. (http://nyti.ms/25vu6x0)

- Hedge fund billionaire Louis M. Bacon's charitable foundation was a victim of a fraudulent scheme by Wall Street executive Andrew Caspersen, the foundation said on Tuesday. (http://nyti.ms/1q0sRG8)

- Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chairwoman, said on Tuesday that the United States economy remained on track despite a rough start to the year because the drag from weak growth in other countries was being offset by lower borrowing costs. (http://nyti.ms/1WWD0Oi)



Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** As overall complaints to Canada's telecom ombudsman remain steady, Rogers Communications Inc has posted a significant drop in the number of times its customers take their gripes to the industry complaint body. The Federal Commissioner for Complaints for Telecommunications Services said in a midyear report that complaints relating to Rogers Communications was down 65 percent to 437 from the same period last year. (http://bit.ly/1Y0njpn)

** Prices for copper and oil are poised to fall, according to a report by Kevin Norrish, a widely followed analyst with Barclays PLC. (http://bit.ly/1WXkPYL)

** Credit rating agency DBRS Ltd delivered an upbeat assessment of Canada's big banks, arguing that the geographic diversity of their operations will help them navigate a weak Canadian economy and a struggling energy sector. (http://bit.ly/1qhSzWo)

NATIONAL POST

** Equifax Canada and land registry company Teranet Enterprises Inc have signed a five-year agreement to create a service for clients that will use the analytical expertise and the credit and property data assets that each company possesses to assess homeowners' credit-worthiness. (http://bit.ly/1RIO64S)

** Uber Technologies Inc may have suspended its operations in Edmonton this month, but it's still calling on Toronto city council to emulate the Alberta capital when it votes on new ride-sharing regulations this spring. (http://bit.ly/1PF8Fy3)



Britain

The Times

- The Federal Trade Commission has accused Volkswagen AG of deceptively advertising "clean diesel" vehicles and promoting ones fitted with illegal pollution-cheating devices. (http://thetim.es/1VSkJ6y)

The Guardian

- Sports Direct has upped its stake in Findel Plc to nearly 30 percent, in the latest stage of its battle to wrest control of the online specialist. (http://bit.ly/1VSkKqQ)

- A.G.Barr Plc, the Scottish soft drinks maker best known for Irn-Bru, has reiterated its annoyance at George Osborne's sugar tax but says it expects little financial impact because it will change its recipes to adapt to the measure. (http://bit.ly/1okJ3An)

The Telegraph

- Aviva Plc Chief Executive Mark Wilson saw his pay more than double last year on the back of the company's acquisition of rival Friends Life. According to the company's annual report, which was published today, Wilson received 5.67 million euros ($6.40 million) last year, up from 2.6 million euros in 2014. (http://bit.ly/1okJgTU)

Sky News

- Energy Secretary Amber Rudd has risked igniting a fresh Brexit row after it emerged that her department had urged electricity suppliers to echo her warning that leaving the European Union could cost consumers 500 million pounds a year. (http://bit.ly/21ShF9X)

The Independent

- Tata Steel Ltd is reportedly preparing to announce the sale of its entire UK operation, putting thousands of UK jobs at risk. The company held a board meeting in Mumbai on Tuesday to discuss the fate of the Port Talbot plant. (http://ind.pn/21SitM7)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-30/frontrunning-march-30
 

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#21
"Bad News Is Great Again" - Global Stocks Soar After Yellen Admits Global Economy Is Much Weaker


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2016 06:48 -0400


At the end of the day, it was all about the dollar.

Starting March 18, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot had risen as much as 1.9% as Fed officials including Lacker, Williams and Bullard noted upside risks on rate-hike projection and suggested a rate hike may be imminent as soon as April. And then Yellen unleashed the latest round of dovishness, when she made it very clear that the Fed is no longer just the U.S. central bank, but that of the world (but mostly China) and as such its prerogative is to not only keep stocks high, but to also assure there is no currency crisis in Beijing (where a month ago she met other G-20 central bankers to decide precisely this).

The result of Yellen's much discussed speech, was an immediate plunge in the Dollar spot index of 1.2% to 8 month lows, its worst month in 5 years, a drop which has continued this morning, and is on par to equal the dollar's tumble from the first week of March when Bill Dudley likewise came out very dovish, and when the index dropped 1.7% within a week.





What is notable about these two crying doves is that both have roundly ignored the simmering "mutiny" by the Fed's hawks (remember Hilsenrath's humorous "The Decline of Dissent at the Fed" last week) advice of central banker incubator Goldman Sachs, that it is in the US interest to push the dollar higher (it had a report just last week titled "Inflation Finally Begins to Firm"). It will be very interesting to see how this particular conflict is resolved.

For now, however, the die has been cast, and the result is a surge in risk assets around the globe: stocks jumped in Asia (except in Japan where the Yen strength pushed the Nikkei lower by 1.3%, however the Shanghai's 2.3% jump just over 3000 should more than make up for that) and Europe, with US equity futures 0.6% higher at this moment. Commodities climbed as the dollar extended its worst month in more than five years.

The reason for this stock surge, as we noted last night, is absurdly delightful: Yellen signaled "weakening world growth" and "less confidence in the renormalization process." In other words, the "bad news is good news" mantra is back front and center. As such, calls for a slow approach to tightening policy ignited gains for shares from Shanghai to Frankfurt after U.S. equities erased their losses for the year. Diminishing prospects for a first-half Fed rate increase sent the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index toward the lowest since June and drove emerging-market currencies toward their best month since 1998. Credit markets rallied and U.S. oil gained for the first time in five days.

"We have seen European markets broadly head higher on Yellen’s dovish
note last night,
" said Michael Hewson, the London-based market analyst
at CMC Markets Plc. “It’s the only factor driving them up today."

Indeed, the worse the global economy gets from this point on, the better for risk assets, even if it means that the S&P's GAAP P/E is north of 23x as of this morning.

As Bloomberg adds, futures show traders now see no chance of Yellen changing policy next month, a roughly 20% chance of a June hike as of this moment, and only a 54% likelihood of an increase by November after she dialed back some of the commentary made by other officials the past two weeks. The Fed chair emphasized during her appearance at the Economic Club of New York that the central bank remains wary of raising rates amid threats to American growth from a slowing global economy.

The MSCI All-Country World Index added 0.8 percent as of 10:29 a.m. London time for a fourth-straight advance. The Shanghai Composite Index gained 2.8 percent and Germany’s DAX Index added 1.6 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2 percent.

Global Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 2057
  • Stoxx 600 up 1.2% to 341
  • FTSE 100 up 1.5% to 6199
  • DAX up 1.5% to 10034
  • German 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 0.14%
  • Italian 10Yr yield down 1bp to 1.23%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 1.44%
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.9% to 129
  • Nikkei 225 down 1.3% to 16879
  • Hang Seng up 2.1% to 20803
  • Shanghai Composite up 2.8% to 3001
  • S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 5010
  • US 10-yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.81%
  • Dollar Index down 0.26% to 94.91
  • WTI Crude futures up 1.7% to $38.94
  • Brent Futures up 1.4% to $39.69
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,239
  • Silver spot up 0.2% to $15.39
Top Global News

  • Boeing to Trim 4,000 Jobs Amid Makeover of Commercial Jet Unit: part of a broader effort to reduce costs amid fierce competition from Airbus Group SE
  • Amazon Assembly, Installation Services Bolster Big-Product Sales: retailer has put together an army of workers who can handle everything from mounting flat TVs on walls to assembling treadmills
  • Exxon Climate Science Probe Expands as New York Gains Allies: Massachusetts joins New York in investigating Exxon Mobil
  • Yellen Spurs Global Stock Rally as Dollar Tumbles for Second Day: Stocks jumped around the world after Yellen reasserted the central bank’s gradual approach to raising interest rates
  • Earnings Optimism Drawing Short Seller Wrath in U.S. Equities: Short interest in ETF tracking industry highest in 20 months
Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia, where in the aftermath of yesterday's dovish deluge stocks traded mostly positive as the region cheered Fed Chair Yellen's dovish remarks, which had already underpinned the S&P 500 to its highest close YTD. However Nikkei 225 (-1.3%) underperformed, weighed by a stronger JPY and poor Industrial Production figures which declined the most since 2011, while Shanghai Comp (+2.8%) outperforms amid upbeat earnings results and prospects China's pension fund could start investment in the nation's stock markets this year. 10yr JGBs tracked T-notes higher following the aforementioned dovish Yellen and amid weakness in Japanese stocks, while the BoJ were also in the market for JPY 1.2trl of government debt.

Top Asian News

  • China Said to Accelerate Financial Regulatory Overhaul Plans: Proposals for new system of oversight could come in summer
  • China’s Large Banks Wary on Li Keqiang’s Plan for Bad Loans: Higher risk weights for equity stakes would weaken banks
  • Fortunes Reverse for Hedge Funds That Won in Past Selloffs: Hao’s China hedge fund lost 6.1% after last year’s 149% gain
  • Takata Said to Put Worst-Case Recall Costs at $24 Billion: Supplier said to peg total recall at 287.5m inflators
  • Antibiotic Apocalypse Fear Stoked by India’s Drugged Chickens: Feeding chickens antibiotics may speed diseases costing $100t
In Europe, risk on sentiment dominated the price action this morning as dovish comments by Fed's Yellen on Tuesday prompted market participants to reassess their expectations of further rate hikes by the Fed. Consequently, USD index remained under pressure for the much of the first half of the EU session. Looking elsewhere, despite the upside in stocks and supply related positioning, Bunds traded little changed, though prices moved off the best levels after it was reported that inflation in German states edged back into positive territory. Also of note, peripheral bond yield spreads continued to tighten, supported by large quarter-end negative supply in April.

Top European News

  • Metro Plans to Split in Two in Move to Boost Company’s Value: Shares jump as much as 10% in Frankfurt on demerger plan. Split should take place by middle of next year, company says
  • Swedbank Chairman Fails to Win Re-Election After CEO Scandal: development follows the dismissal earlier this year of Chief Executive Officer Michael Wolf
  • Tata Steel Will Study Sale of Its U.K. Unit as Market Worsens: Producer says its holding talks with British government. Slump in global prices has forced it to consider selling its U.K. business
  • Europe’s Bond Shortage Means Draghi Is About to Shock the Market: ECB’s monthly debt purchases rise by 20 billion euros in April. Ten-year bunds headed for biggest quarterly gain since 2011
In FX, the early European session continued to the North American sell off in the wake of Fed Chair Yellen's speech in NY yesterday, where the level of dovish rhetoric took the market by surprise. All the majors saw significant moves against the greenback, and these have all been extended, after a relatively quiet Asian session which was largely consolidative. EUR/USD has now pushed up to 1.1333 while USD/JPY printed a 112.00 low to push the USD index down towards key mid-March support.

The commodity currencies have also made some gains, but giving back some of this more recently, with USD/CAD meeting strong demand at 1.3000. NZD/USD took out key resistance around .6900 to suggest some much stronger gains ahead, though AUD/USD through the recent .7680 highs has only generated modest momentum since, with .7700 still intact.

Bloomberg’s dollar index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, has lost 3.7 percent in March, set for a second straight monthly drop and the biggest decline since September 2010. The U.S. currency slipped 0.3 percent to $1.1321 per euro and weakened 0.4 percent to 112.27 yen as it dropped against all of its major counterparts.

The Fed would act “cautiously” as it looks to raise rates against a backdrop of deteriorating global growth, Yellen said. Policy makers including St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and San Francisco Fed boss John Williams said last week that higher borrowing costs were possible as soon as next month.

"Yellen indicated that core Fed members take into account the global context more than regional officials," said Etsuko Yamashita, chief economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. in New York. “A June rate hike would be difficult as global financial turmoil earlier this year affects the real economy with a time lag.”

In commodities, WTI and Brent have both traded positively with WTI currently trading higher by USD 0.72/bbl just above the USD 39.00/ bbl level. Gold has also seen moves higher during European trade but has now started consolidating after reaching highs of 1244.27/oz. Meanwhile in base metals copper and iron ore price action was subdued with the red metal remaining at its lowest level since early March. Nickel for three-month delivery advanced 0.8 percent to $8,520 a metric
ton on the London Metal Exchange. Gold declined 0.3 percent to $1,238.22
an ounce in the spot market following a 1.7 percent jump last session.

West Texas Intermediate crude snapped a four-day, 7.7% tumble to rise 1.7 percent Wednesday, to $38.94 a barrel. Brent crude gained 1.2 percent to $39.59. The weaker dollar makes crude and other commodities cheaper in other currencies.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • European equities remain elevated on the back of dovish commentary from Fed Chair Yellen who stresses need to hike rates slowly.
  • USD index remained under pressure consequently supporting flows into higher yielding currencies such as AUD and NZD.
  • Going forward will see the latest US ADP report, weekly DoE inventories data, comments Fed's Evans and also the US Treasury will sell USD 28b1n in 7y notes.
  • Treasuries little changed in overnight trading, global equity markets rally on post-Yellen euphoria; this week’s auctions conclude with $28b 7Y notes, WI yield 1.59%, compares with 1.568% awarded in Feb., lowest 7Y auction stop since 1.496% in May 2013.
  • U.S. Treasuries are poised for their best quarter in almost four years as bond traders cut the probability of a rate boost at the April meeting to zero after Yellen’s warning Tuesday about global economic risks; The dollar headed for its worst month in more than five years, the yen strengthened
  • Boeing plans to cut about 4,000 jobs from its commercial airplanes division by mid-year as part of a broader effort to reduce costs amid fierce competition from Airbus Group SE. The U.S. planemaker doesn’t plan any involuntary layoffs, for now
  • ECB Governor Draghi prepares to increase and broaden his bond-buying program, leaving investors to face even higher demand for government bonds with supply unable to keep up and some of Europe’s biggest banks are predicting yields are headed for even more record lows
  • The European Central Bank isn’t discussing directly financing government stimulus, or “helicopter money,” Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said
  • Euro-area economic confidence fell to the lowest level in more than a year just as the European Central Bank deployed fresh stimulus to spur growth and quash the threat of deflation
  • Japan’s industrial production dropped 6.2% in February, the most since the March 2011 earthquake as falling exports sapped demand and a steel-mill explosion halted domestic car production at Toyota Motor Corp
  • $6.45b IG credit priced yesterday, WTD $11.1b, MTD $155.905b, YTD $450.155b; $1.07b HY priced yesterday, WTD 4 deals $2.57b, MTD 26 deals for $16.435b, YTD 51 deals for $31.29b
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mixed; European and Asian equity markets higher; U.S. equity-index futures rise. WTI crude oil rallies, gold and copper fall
US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, March 25 (prior -3.3%)
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, March, est. 195k (prior 214k)
  • 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories
  • 1pm: Fed’s Evans speaks in New York
DB's Jim Ried concludes the overnight wrap

Well after ten days or so of some surprisingly hawkish chatter from a handful of the regional Fed Presidents, it was back to the cautious FOMC script of two weeks ago for Fed Chair Yellen following her comments yesterday at the Economic Club of New York. In stark contrast to much of the rhetoric in the interim period since the last FOMC meeting to twenty-four hours ago from her colleagues, a dovish Yellen provided a firm and effective reminder that the Fed is clearly not going to be rushed into prematurely tightening further, while at the same time surely putting to bed any possibility that the Fed could move next month, as some of the previous Fedspeak comments had alluded to.

In terms of what Yellen said exactly, the main focus was on her comment that ‘given the risks to the outlook, I consider it appropriate for the committee to proceed cautiously in adjusting policy’. This was quickly followed up by the Fed Chair also making mention to the fact that ‘this caution is especially warranted because, with the federal funds rate so low, the FOMC’s ability to use conventional monetary policy to respond to economic disturbances is asymmetric’. Yellen also highlighted that the outlook for US inflation had become ‘somewhat more uncertain’ and that recent readings on the US economy are ‘somewhat mixed’. The Fed Chair even went as far as to say that the committee has ‘considerable scope’ to ease policy if necessary and that ‘while these tools may entail some risks and costs that do not apply to the federal funds rate, we used them effectively to strengthen the recovery from the Great Recession, and we would do so again if needed’. Both China and volatility in Oil prices were also made mention to several times as risks to the US outlook.

In the lead up another rough day for Oil markets, which we’ll touch on shortly, had seen US equity markets trend lower initially, but risk markets latched onto the dovish tone with sentiment swinging as Yellen spoke, culminating with the S&P 500 eventually finishing with a +0.88% gain and in turn reaching a fresh high for the year. Credit indices also took comfort in the comments with CDX IG (1bp tighter on the day) nearly 2.5bps tighter from the earlier intraday wides. Unsurprisingly the US Dollar was hit hard with the Dollar index (-0.82%) eventually concluding a second consecutive down day. Gold finished +1.62%, while elsewhere Treasury yields were already marching lower with the moves for Oil before the Fed Chair’s comments added an extra kick, the benchmark 10y eventually finishing the day over 8bps lower at 1.804%. The probability of a hike in June fell to a fresh post-FOMC low of 28% (around 10% lower than Monday’s close), although it’s worth reminding that we still have three employment reports to come before that meeting starting with the March report this Friday.

Refreshing our screens this morning, with the exception of Japan bourses in Asia are following much of the post-Yellen gains made in the US yesterday evening. The Shanghai Comp (+1.24%), Hang Seng (+1.38%), Kospi (+0.36%) and ASX (+0.26%) are all up while iTraxx credit indices in Asia and Australia are both tighter. US equity market futures are posting modest gains. The sell-off for the US Dollar has seen the Yen benefit the most and that’s weighing on Japanese equity markets with the Nikkei currently down -0.33%. A softer than expected industrial production report out of Japan (-6.2% mom vs. -5.9% expected) is also not helping sentiment there. Meanwhile there’s better news to come out of the latest Westpac consumer sentiment reading for March in China, with the index up nearly 7pts to 118.1 and the highest level since September.

Back to yesterday and specifically those moves for Oil. WTI closed down -2.82% yesterday and a shade above $38/bbl for its fifth consecutive daily decline. In fact prices are now $4 lower than the intraday highs of less than two weeks ago with much of this being attributed to the rising skepticism building for hopes of any material outcome from the upcoming April 17th meeting between major producers in Doha. The latest dent yesterday came out of Kuwait with the acting oil minister announcing that production is to restart in the Kharfi oil field, a 300k barrel-a-day joint operation by state owned Kuwait and Saudi Arabian oil producers which had been closed since October 2014. Oil had been rallying on hopes that the upcoming Doha meeting may bring about a production freeze but questions are being asked about the seriousness of such an outcome in light of news such as this.

With regards to the economic data yesterday, the main takeaway of note was a decent rise in the March consumer confidence index to 96.2 (vs. 94.0 expected) from an upwardly revised 94.0 last month. While the details showed the present situation index declining for the second consecutive month, the expectations index did retrace nearly its entire February decline. The only other data of note in the US was the S&P/Case-Shiller house price index which showed that house prices increased +0.8% mom during January (vs. +0.7% expected) in the 20 major cities. Prior to this in Europe we saw the ECB report its money and credit aggregates for February. The M3 money supply growth rate was unchanged at 5.0% yoy as expected, however there was a reported increase in loans to both households and non-financial corporates.

Staying in Europe, European equity markets reopened from the long weekend with broad-based gains yesterday, the Stoxx 600 (+0.50%) in particular snapping the four days of consecutive losses which had made up last week. Meanwhile sovereign bond yields in Europe continue to close in on their February lows. 10y Bund yields were over 4bps lower yesterday and at 0.136% are only just above the 0.107% we reached at the end of last month. It was noted that Spanish 5y yields struck a new record low yesterday at 0.318%.
Before we take a look at today’s calendar, there was actually some other Fedspeak away from Yellen yesterday although this was clearly overshadowed by the comments from the Fed Chair. San Francisco Fed President Williams said that the future pace of rate hikes will be gradual and thoughtful while offering a slightly more positive outlook for global growth relative to that of Yellen. Meanwhile Dallas Fed President Kaplan said that although he considers all eight Fed meetings to be ‘live’, the Fed President stressed the need for the Central Bank to move in a ‘cautious, deliberate and patient’ manner.

Looking at the day ahead now then, the early data out of Europe this morning will see the release of the March confidence indicators for the Euro area (where little change is expected in the economic confidence index) before we get the first read of the March CPI reading for Germany (expected at +0.6% mom). This afternoon in the US the focus will be on the ADP employment change reading for March as a prelude for the Friday employment report, with market expectations currently sitting at 195k. Away from this it’s fairly quiet although we are due to hear from Chicago Fed President Evans (at 6.00pm BST) where he is expected to speak in NY on the economy and monetary policy, with Q&A scheduled for after.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...-after-yellen-admits-global-economy-much-weak
 

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#22

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#24
A Collapse In Government Is Incoming, Markets Are Going To Start Responding!
By: Gordon T. Long and Martin Armstrong
The Chinese are trying to maintain a controlled economy but they are losing the grip of it. Many people misunderstood the economic statistics because they do not understand what is happening. You had many companies in Hong Kong borrowing in dollars, converting it back in and paying 1% then funneling it into China and collecting 5%-8%. People perceived this as the Chinese getting lots of capital inflow, and the economy doing good, but it had nothing to do with the economy. Following this, shadow banking was shut down and then it was perceived that the economy was going down, but it’s been going down since 2007.


Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Give up Much of Yesterday’s Gains
By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com
Gold fell $16.78 to $1224.52 by late morning in New York before it bounced back higher in afternoon trade, but it still ended with a loss of 1.26%. Silver slipped to as low as $15.187 and ended with a loss of 0.78%.
 

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#25
Frontrunning: March 31


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/31/2016 07:40 -0400


  • Roller-coaster first quarter ends with shares, dollar under pressure (Reuters)
  • Oil prices slide as U.S. crude stocks hit record (Reuters)
  • GE Files to End Fed Oversight After Shrinking GE Capital (WSJ)
  • FDA Eases Rules for Abortion Pill, Making Access Simpler (BBG)
  • Kremlin denies report of Russia-U.S. deal on Assad's future (Reuters)
  • Thirst for Gasoline Fuels Oil Rally (WSJ)
  • Landlords in last-minute rush to beat stamp duty rises (BBG)
  • CEO of SunEdison’s Spinoffs Leaves (WSJ)
  • Zuma Counts on ANC Protection After Court Says He Violated Law (BBG)
  • Hong Kong Retail Sales Plunge the Most in 17 Years (BBG)
  • U.K. Economy Shows More Momentum; Current-Account Gap Widens (BBG)
  • Hong Kong Appeal Tribunal Fines Moody's $1.4 Million for Report (BBG)
  • Bank of Japan runs groupthink risk as board dissenters depart (Reuters)
  • Distorted Markets: Why Banks Are Better Off Than You Think, And Real Estate Isn’t (WSJ)
  • Twitter Insiders Pitched Standalone Messaging App Idea (ReCode)
  • Why a Chatbot Creeped Out Microsoft's AI-Focused CEO (BBG)
  • Students clash with police at protests against French labour reform (AFP)
  • U.S. May Let Govts, Banks Use USD for Business With Iran (AFP)
  • German Unemployment Unchanged as Refugees Bolster Labor Force (BBG)
  • China set to deploy world’s longest-range nuclear missile (FT)
  • BlackRock Is Said to Plan About 400 Job Cuts as Growth Slows (BBG)
  • The Investor Who's Betting on Brazil's Corruption Scandal (BBG)
  • Wage Surge in Hot U.S. Labor Markets Sending Hopeful Sign to Fed (BBG)
  • Deutsche Bank Says CIB Head Urwin May Be Worth More Than Cryan (BBG)


Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

- Argentina's Senate early Thursday approved a plan to end a long-running legal dispute with U.S. hedge funds, handing President Mauricio Macri his first big victory in a Congress dominated by the opposition.(http://goo.gl/1iXUTa)

- Google has been repeatedly ordered to help federal agents open cellphones, according to court records in seven states that show Apple Inc isn't the only company facing government demands at the center of a fierce debate over privacy and security. (http://goo.gl/DWQDCN)

- Cara Operations Ltd is in the final stages of negotiations to acquire Quebec-based restaurant chain Groupe St-Hubert for about 500 million Canadian dollars ($384.59 million), according to a person familiar with the deal. (http://goo.gl/TXtRil)

- A jury found a General Motors Co ignition switch installed in a car "unreasonably dangerous" but stopped short of awarding damages in a case arising from litigation consolidated in a New York federal court. (http://goo.gl/07Dsu6)

- Telecom Italia SpA said Wednesday it has appointed Flavio Cattaneo, currently chief executive of train operator NTV SpA-Nuovo Trasporto Viaggiatori, as the new CEO of Italy's largest telecommunications operator. (http://goo.gl/TKW9tj)



FT

* Britain's biggest lenders are set to replace passwords, pin numbers and lengthy branch visits by new technology in the manner of video meetings and voice-recognition to meet demand for faster banking services. (http://bit.ly/1Rz04PB)

* David Cameron has flown home from the Canary Islands after his Easter holiday to find himself in the midst of the critical steel industrial crisis that threatens up to 40,000 British workers' livelihoods. (http://bit.ly/1Rz0BB9)

*Tata Steel Ltd's board signalled that after nine years, several billion pounds of investment and consistent heavy losses, it was putting up its British steel operations for sale.(http://bit.ly/1Rz0Tru)

*In the past decade, burial costs have risen sharply while state subsidies have failed to keep up - making Britain risk a fall back into a system of "miserable pauper's funerals". (http://bit.ly/1RyZGka)



NYT

- Opponents of the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul won an important battle on Wednesday as a federal judge here stripped the "too big to fail" label from the insurance company MetLife Ltd. (http://nyti.ms/1onsjrY)

- General Motors Co won a second consecutive case in litigation over its defective ignition switches, when a New York jury found that a faulty switch was not responsible for a 2014 accident that injured two people. (http://nyti.ms/22QBJ2g)

- Foxconn Technology Co Ltd said it had struck a deal to acquire control of the Japanese screen maker Sharp Corp for $3.5 billion, after weeks of negotiations. (http://nyti.ms/1MCTdaQ)

- Prime Minister David Cameron faced a new economic and political challenge on Wednesday after Tata Steel Ltd said it could no longer swallow the large losses being generated by its plants and would try to sell them. (http://nyti.ms/1ont1Wo)

- Offering a billion-dollar tax cut and assurances that New York City would not be stuck with a $250 million Medicaid bill, Governor Andrew Cuomo inched closer on Wednesday to presenting an on-time budget with one major issue seemingly standing in his way - an increase in the minimum wage. (http://nyti.ms/1MCTP0i)



Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** The aftershocks of the commodities price collapse, already plucking C$1,800 a year out of Canadians' pockets, could persist for more than two years and permanently impair the economy, according to the Bank of Canada. (http://bit.ly/1PHh6J2)

** As Dollarama Inc prepares to raise its top prices to C$4 from C$3 amid steeper purchasing costs, the retailer has found new meaning in the lowly toothpick. (http://bit.ly/1SAGYL8)

NATIONAL POST

** Five oil-producing economies are on the verge of collapse if oil prices do not stabilize soon, according to RBC Capital Markets. (http://bit.ly/1RLZd0h)

** Kinross Gold Corp finally has a workable development plan for its long-troubled Tasiast mine. The Toronto-based miner greenlighted the first phase of a two-step expansion plan at Tasiast on Wednesday. (http://bit.ly/1ZMMv4c)

** Jeff Melanson, CEO of the Toronto Symphony Orchestra, has resigned - mired in a messy courtroom battle with his estranged wife, Eleanor McCain, that involves sordid allegations of deception and sexual improprieties. (http://bit.ly/1UV8573)



Britain

The Times

- The failure of HSBC Holdings Plc to clean up its act after an anti-money-laundering deal with America's Justice Department has raised the possibility that U.S. authorities may continue to monitor Britain's biggest bank. (http://thetim.es/1MUcpvw)

- The Dutch headquarters of Royal Dutch Shell Plc have been raided as part of a corruption investigation into the company's acquisition of a vast oilfield in Nigeria. (http://thetim.es/1MUcCis)

The Guardian

- Prime Minister David Cameron has flown back to Britain for emergency talks with ministers over the financial crisis engulfing Tata Steel Ltd's British operation amid warnings that the firm has just weeks to secure a rescue deal on which up to 40,000 jobs could depend. (http://bit.ly/1MUcO12)

- The number of London city financiers who took home more than 1 million euros ($1.13 million) per year jumped to nearly 3,000 in 2014, with one earning up to 25 million euros. The European Banking Authority said the UK, with London home to Europe's biggest financial centre, had more than three times as many high-earning bankers as the rest of the EU combined. (http://bit.ly/1MUcQ9p)

The Telegraph

- The backers of an independent proposal to lengthen one of Heathrow's existing runways have become the latest group to warn that the government risks a legal challenge if it backs rival plans to build a third landing strip. (http://bit.ly/1MUd8wR)

- An alliance of taxi drivers in London have abandoned a bid to have Uber's licence in London declared illegal, in a blow for the black cab industry's attempts to stamp out the ride-hailing app. (http://bit.ly/1MUdl3c)

Sky News

- Stephen Jones, who stepped down as Santander UK's chief financial officer several months ago, has been tapped by the Co-operative Bank Plc's board as a potential successor to Niall Booker. (http://bit.ly/1MUeiIK)

- Ofcom says there were 32 complaints about Vodafone Group Plc made per 100,000 customers in the last three months of 2015 - an increase from the 20 in the previous three months. (http://bit.ly/1MUenfD)

The Independent

- U.S. spice company McCormick & Company Inc raised its takeover proposal for Premier Foods Plc on Wednesday for the second time, calling on the British company's board to engage in talks that could lead to a deal. (http://ind.pn/1MUeFTx)

- Aldi biscuits, including cheese thins, ginger nuts and Oddbites, are being recalled by the manufacturer after they were found to have been made in dirty factories. (http://ind.pn/1MUeRSX)


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-31/frontrunning-march-31
 

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#26
On Final Day Of Extremely Volatile Quarter, Futures Trade Modestly Lower


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/31/2016 06:52 -0400



On the last day of an extremely volatile first quarter, following the latest torrid push higher in risk assets over the past two days following Yellen's dovish Tuesday comments, today has seen a modest pull back in risk, whether because the market is massively overbought, because someone finally looked at what record multiple expansion that has taken place in Q1 as earnings are set to collapse by nearly 10%, or simply due to fears that tomorrow's payrolls number will show an abnormal amount of minimum wage waiters and bartenders added.

Whatever the reason, stocks slipped and have unwound some of the March rebound that had the MSCI All-Country World Index on the brink of erasing its losses for 2016. Crude oil retreated with base metals. As Bloomberg notes, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell for the first time in three days, declining with shares in Tokyo and Hong Kong. Crude slid back to $38 a barrel after OPEC reported that March output rose to 32.52MM b/d from 32.44MM b/d in February, making a mockery of any "production freeze."



As a reminder, this is where we stood as of last night: by the close of play yesterday the S&P 500 (+0.44%) had extended its winning streak to three consecutive sessions and in the process reached the highest level since December 29th. In fact yesterday’s move means the index has rallied over 14% off the intraday low midway through last month and is just 3% off the 2015 high set back in May.

S&P 500 futures fell 0.1 percent, suggesting US stocks could snap a three-day winning streak that pushed the measure to its highest level this year. Among the key events today, investors will look to today's initial jobless claims report for indications of the health of the labor market before Friday’s key non-farm payroll data.

After beating U.S. equities last year by the most in a decade, European stocks are now trailing them by the most since 2003. This quarter, analysts have slashed profit estimates, now forecasting declines for the year. Fund managers have withdrawn money for seven straight weeks, the longest streak since 2014, according to a Bank of America Corp. note last week.

The strong EUR and Europe's NIRP have also meant that while the broader market has not suffered too much, European banking stocks are a different matter entirely.

European bank stocks this quarter pic.twitter.com/Vz1oqCE231

— Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) March 31, 2016

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pared gains to 0.1 percent, and is poised for an 8.2 percent jump in March. The Topix index fell 0.7 percent in Tokyo.

As reported before, we close off the quarter with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for its worst month since 2010 and Treasury yields were on course for their largest quarterly drop since 2012 after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated that weaker global growth called for a gradual approach to raising rates. Copper and zinc pared their first quarterly increases since 2014, while gold headed for its biggest three-month gain since 1986.

European stocks are heading for their first monthly gain since November, although progress hasn’t been sufficient to avoid a third quarterly drop in four. Global equities are up more than 7 percent in March, their first increase since October, but are still down 0.3 percent for the first three months of 2016.

“A lot of the recent rebound has been down to the Fed back-tracking on rate hikes,” Mark Lister, head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners in Wellington, which manages about $7.2 billion, said by phone. “We’ve seen a big rally but there are still some genuine worries out there. Markets had been overpricing some of the risks, whereas now they’re probably underpricing them.”

Futures now show no chance of the U.S. central bank altering monetary policy at its April meeting and only 20 percent odds of a rate increase in June.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2054
  • Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.8% to 338.3
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.2% to 129.02
  • US 10Yr yield down 2 bps to 1.81%
  • Dollar index down 0.2% to 94.67
  • WTI oil futures down 1.2% to $37.87/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.7% to $1233.37/oz
Top Global News:

  • Google Objects to Oracle’s $8.8 Billion Claim for Java Trial
  • BlackRock Is Said to Plan About 400 Job Cuts as Growth Slows
  • Mallinckrodt Said to Work With Bank to Seek Nuclear Unit Bidders
  • Oil Declines as Rising U.S. Crude Stockpiles Expand Global Glut
  • Chinese Stocks in Hong Kong Enter Bull Market; Shanghai Rebounds
  • IBM Said to Buy Cloud Consulting Co. for About $200m: Re/code
  • U.K. GDP Grows More Than Estimated; Current-Account Gap Widens
  • German Unemployment Unchanged as Refugees Bolster Labor Force
  • Bidder for Mideast KFC Operator Said to Get $1.5 Billion Funding
  • Buffett’s Energy Unit Sees Tax Benefits Double to $1.8 Billion
  • World’s Biggest Shipping Company Pours Billions Into Market Rout
  • Twitter Insiders Pitched Standalone Messaging App Idea: Re/code
  • FDA Eases Rules for Abortion Pill, Making Access Simpler
  • Westinghouse Sees India Reactor Deal Signed in June: Reuters
  • U.S. May Let Govts, Banks Use USD for Business With Iran: AP
  • Eurazeo to Buy Brands From Mondelez for EU250m, Les Echos Says
  • Tesla to unveil Model 3 at 8:30pm PT in Calif; Tesla Model 3 Electric Car Seen Getting 225 Miles Per Charge
  • Medivation Said to Work With Advisers to Defend Against Takeover
Looking at regional markets, Asia stocks traded indecisive amid fiscal year-end and as the recent dovish-Fed euphoria began to wane. ASX 200 (+1.29%) took the impetus from Wall St.'s gains as commodity names outperformed led by strength in blue chips BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, while Nikkei 225 (-0.7%) saw choppy trade with price-action subdued by a firmer JPY and fiscal-end rebalancing. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp (+0.1 %) also fluctuated between gains and losses following several large named earnings including big-4 banks ICBC and Bank of China which both surpassed estimates but announced a reduction in dividend pay-outs amid sluggish profit growth, while the PBoC also upped their liquidity injection. S&P revised China sovereign rating outlook to AA- negative from AA- stable.

Asia Top News

  • A $2 Billion Fund Says Good Riddance as ‘Dumb Money’ Flees Japan
  • Barclays’s Japan Chief Nakai to Resign Later in Year, Memos Say
  • Chief of Malaysia’s Embattled 1MDB Says My Job Is Done Here
  • Najib’s Brother Disbursed Funds Before Malaysian Polls, WSJ Says
  • Guosen Securities Unit Said in Default Event on Dim Sum Debt
  • The Giant of Southeast Asian Markets Is Getting Trounced in IPOs
In Europe, Yellen inspired sentiment entered a pause mode today as market participants took an opportunity to book profits ahead of the release of the latest US jobs report due out on Friday. As a result, the more defensive sectors outperformed, with energy and materials names under pressure amid lower energy prices. S&P's move to revise Chinese sovereign rating outlook to negative from stable and firmer than expected EU CPI data only underpinned the cautious sentiment, while an upward revision to UK GDP report also failed to result in any meaningful upside in EU based equity indices.

In FX, much to Draghi's embarrassment, the stand-out performer this morning has been the EUR, with the lead spot rate pushing up towards the highs to suggest a move on the Feb highs at 1.1375. This is pushing the USD index back to the lows, after some early weakness in the commodity currencies suggested a modest turnaround was in the making — perhaps justified ahead of US payrolls Friday. EUR/GBP buying month end saw the cross rate through .7900, pushing Cable lows around 1.4325, but after some steady support at the lows, an upward revision in Q4 GDP gave the Pound a fresh bid. Strong offers ahead of 1.4400, while a resilient EUR (vs GBP) will always win out these days.

Any JPY strength on Japanese fiscal year end has yet to materialise, but yesterday's highs remain intact, with USD/JPY holding steady above 112.00. EUR/JPY buoyant, and looking to better the 127.81 high from Tuesday. Limited impact from the S&P outlook change on China from stable to negative. CNH and CNY both at lows on the week.

Bloomberg’s dollar gauge, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, slipped 0.1 percent, for a fourth day of declines. The index has lost 3.9 percent this month, its steepest drop since September 2010.

“The dollar is overvalued, particularly against the major currencies, euro and yen,” said Steven Saywell, BNP Paribas SA’s global head of foreign-exchange strategy in London, in an interview on Bloomberg TV.

In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude declined 1.3 percent to $37.83 a barrel, dropping for the fifth time in six days as the increase in U.S. stockpiles reinforced concern over a global glut in the commodity. Brent lost 0.5 percent to $39.07. Both are still heading for their first quarterly increases since 2015.Inventories expanded for a seventh week to 534.8 million barrels, according to a report from the Energy Information Administration Wednesday, while imports and production dropped. Ecuador and Venezuela will support a cut to output at a meeting between major exporters in Doha next month, Ecuador’s Oil Minister Carlos Pareja said in a post on the ministry’s Twitter account.

Gold for immediate delivery added 0.7 percent to $1,233.73 an ounce, after sliding 1.4 percent last session. Silver has managed to stay above the upward trendline on the daily chart maintaining its higher lows, currently above USD 15.24 with the next support level down at USD 15.06, while gold is still on course for its best quarter in 25 years due to safe-haven demand. Elsewhere, copper declined for a 5th consecutive day while iron ore prices fell over 1.5% alongside broad-based weakness across the commodities complex.

On the calendar today we get the Chicago PMI print for March (expected to improve over 3pts to 50.7) given the improvement in several regional PMI series, and of course ahead of tomorrow’s ISM manufacturing print. Away from this there’s more employment market data with last week’s initial jobless claims data. As well as the data, the latest Fedspeak is due to come from NY Fed President Dudley (due at 10pm BST), while Chicago Fed President Evans will speak again this afternoon (2.45pm BST).



Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • Caution prevailed ahead of NFP release due on Friday, with defensive sectors outperforming in early European trade
  • Brexit concerns and month-end EUR/GBP demand failed to weigh on GBP, with GBP/USD advancing to 1.4400 level following better than expected UK GDP report
  • Going forward, the focus will be on the release of the latest US Challenger Jobs and Chicago PM! reports ahead of NFP tomorrow
  • Treasuries little changed, global equities drop and commodities mixed in overnight trading; today’s economic data includes jobless claims, ISM Milwaukee and Chicago PMI.
  • Standard & Poor’s has cut the outlook for China’s credit rating to negative from stable, saying the nation’s economic rebalancing is likely to proceed more slowly than the ratings firm had expected. The nation’s credit rating is AA-
  • The nation’s largest state-controlled lenders cut their dividend payouts for last year amid rising bad loans, underscoring what Bank of China Ltd.’s president described as a “new normal” of low profit growth for the lenders
  • Euro-area inflation fell 0.1% from a year earlier after a 0.2% drop in February, in data released on the eve of the European Central Bank’s first day of expanded debt purchasing to fight deflation
  • German joblessness was unchanged in March, snapping a run of five consecutive declines, in a sign that Europe’s largest economy may be struggling to absorb a wave of refugees
  • Wall Street is used to getting the opportunity to influence bank rules before they are unveiled. Now financial firms are getting the chance to argue that a key capital requirement should be softened even after it was supposed to be finished
  • Recession worries and central-bank stimulus in Europe and Japan have given fresh life to a three-decade-long rally in global debt. Bonds worldwide are off to the best annual start since at least 1996. They’ve earned about 3.2% this quarter and added $2.1 trillion of market value
  • $4.7b IG credit priced yesterday, weekly volume to $15.8b, March $160.605b, YTD $454.855b; $5.225b HY priced yesterday, WTD 6 deals $7.8b, MTD 28 deals for $21.66b, YTD 53 deals for $36.52b
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mixed; European and Asian equity markets lower; U.S. equity-index futures drop. WTI crude oil and copper drop, gold moves higher
US Event Calendar

  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts y/y, March (prior 21.8%)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 265k March 26 (prior 265k); Continuing Claims, March 19, est. 2.2m (prior 2.179m)
  • 9:00am: ISM Milwaukee, March (prior 55.22)
  • 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, March, est, 50.7 (prior 47.6)
  • 9:45am: Fed’s Evans speaks in New York
  • 10:00am: Wholesale Trade, benchmark revisions
  • 5:00pm: Fed’s Dudley speaks in Lexington, Virginia
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

For the most part the past 24 hours or so markets have seen a continuation of the decent performance for risk assets ignited in the wake of Yellen’s cautious comments. Yesterday, despite the usually dovish Chicago Fed President Evans offering his view that he still expects two rate hikes this year, futures markets continued to push the probability of a tightening lower and we’re now down to just a 20% probability of a hike in June based on pricing this morning (from 38% pre-Yellen) and 54% by December (from 73%). With one eye on the other big event of the week - that being tomorrow’s payrolls number - yesterday’s ADP employment change reading was fairly supportive after printing a tad ahead of expectations at 200k (vs. 195k expected) which has the early chatter looking for a similar 2-handle NFP number.

By the close of play yesterday the S&P 500 (+0.44%) had extended its winning streak to three consecutive sessions and in the process reached the highest level since December 29th. In fact yesterday’s move means the index has rallied over 14% off the intraday low midway through last month and is in fact just 3% off the 2015 high set back in May. It was US credit indices which were the relative outperformer yesterday though with CDX IG eventually finishing 4bps tighter on the day with the index closing back in again on the YTD tights made earlier this month. Cash markets had a decent day too with US HY spreads finishing 8bps tighter. The US Dollar continues to struggle post Yellen and despite attempting to rebound on yesterday’s employment data (and Evans’ comments to some degree), the Dollar index still closed with a -0.34% loss to take its post-Yellen move lower to -1.14%. Emerging market currencies were the main beneficiary of that move while in rates markets 2y Treasury yields dipped another 3bps lower yesterday to 0.759% which means the bonds are now nearly 21bps lower in yield since the FOMC meeting of two weeks or so ago. The curve did however steepen with 10y and 30y yields up 2bps and 5bps respectively.

This morning, while trading has been a bit choppy the bulk of bourses have followed Wall Street’s lead and are posting gains. The CSI 300 (+0.32%), Shanghai Comp (+0.36%), Nikkei (+0.44%) and ASX (+1.35%) in particular are all currently up, while the Hang Seng (-0.17%) and Kospi (-0.55%) are lagging a bit. A leg lower for WTI (-1.23%) perhaps contributing to some of that. Asia credit is flat but the Aus iTraxx has rallied to the tune of nearly 4bps. Meanwhile, reports of further corporate bond defaults in China are also gaining some attention. On Tuesday Dongbei Special Steel announced that it had missed a principal and interest repayment, notable given its status as state-owned. This follows the news of a creditor committee being set up to help restructure Bohai Steel’s debt load, while this morning the FT is reporting that a unit of Guosen Securities (China’s 8th largest IB) is said to have technically defaulted on a HK traded-RMB bond. All this a reminder that default risk and idiosyncratic stories in China seems to be on the rise this year and the broader economic slowdown is certainly not helping what has been generally viewed as an overleveraged corporate sector in China.

Back to those comments from the Fed’s Evans yesterday. Despite mentioning that he expects the US economy to be strong enough to justify raising rates twice this year, Evans did come across as a little more cautious with regards to his views on inflation saying specifically that he was a ‘bit uneasy’ on hitting the 2% target. The Fed President also said that ‘it is too early to tell whether the recent firmer readings in the inflation data will last or prove to be temporary volatility and reverse in coming months’, while also signaling that is important for the Fed to take the recent decline in inflation expectations, as perceived by the market, seriously.

Playing catch up, European equities had a strong session yesterday with the Stoxx 600 in particular gaining +1.30% to trim further its YTD loss (which has now dipped under 7% although at one stage was as much as -17% on the year at the February lows). It was actually energy sensitive names which had driven much of that performance after Oil at one stage rallied close to 4% and to a shade under $40/bbl (boosted seemingly by the weaker USD). That move was completely eliminated come the close of play in the US however as the market digested more bearish US crude inventory numbers and its proving hard to ignore the fact that inventories are still near record highs. Interestingly Gold was in reversal mode yesterday after tumbling -1.38% which in turn has taken it into negative territory for the month. That said the precious metal is still on course to close out the quarter with a gain of 15% or so as things stand.

European credit indices had a decent session also with the iTraxx Crossover and Main closing 12bps and 4bps tighter respectively. The primary market in Europe is still yet to get going post the holiday break but one deal which caught the eye earlier this week was that of French corporate Sanofi who managed to get a 3-year bond deal away at a yield of just 5bps and a coupon of 0%. It’s clearly not the first zero-coupon bond we’ve seen but what’s telling is that in the past such zero-coupon bonds have typically priced with a large discount and so offering a more tempting yield. Clearly this is not the case here and perhaps won’t be the last such is the influence of the latest ECB measures (including of course buying corporate bonds). An incredible stat that stood out is Bloomberg reporting that about €14bn of corporate bonds are now trading with a negative yield.

Before we take a look at the day ahead, wrapping up the data yesterday in Europe the main release of note was a better than expected inflation report out of Germany. The March CPI number came in at +0.8% mom (vs. +0.6% expected) which had the effect of lifting the YoY rate up three-tenths to +0.3%. Much of the commentary suggesting that this helps support upside risks to today’s wider Euro area inflation report. With regards to the remainder of the data, the Euro area confidence indicators for this month were a bit of a mixed bag. The headline economic confidence reading fell 0.9pts to 103.0 (vs. 103.8 expected) which is the lowest print since February last year. Industrial confidence was little changed, services confidence dipped but the business climate indicator was a smidgen higher.

Taking a look at today’s calendar, this morning in Europe the early data comes from Germany where we will see the February retail sales numbers. This is quickly followed by the first print for the March CPI report in France, along with consumer spending numbers while Italy and Spain will also report their latest inflation numbers. The Euro area CPI report for March follows this where current expectations are for a modest one-tenth improvement in the headline rate to -0.1% yoy. In the UK we’ll get the final reading of Q4 GDP (expected to stay unchanged at +0.5% qoq) along with the February money and credit aggregate data. Turning to the US, expect there to be a fair bit of attention paid to the Chicago PMI print for March (expected to improve over 3pts to 50.7) given the improvement in several regional PMI series, and of course ahead of tomorrow’s ISM manufacturing print. Away from this there’s more employment market data with last week’s initial jobless claims data. As well as the data, the latest Fedspeak is due to come from NY Fed President Dudley

(due at 10pm BST), while Chicago Fed President Evans will speak again this afternoon (2.45pm BST).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...volatile-quarter-futures-trade-modestly-lower
 

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#28
Gold and Silver Market Morning: March-31-2016 -- Gold and Silver consolidating at the end of the Dollar Bull Market!
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster
This view is now spreading with Janet Yellen’s comments of concern on the global economy and the strong dollar confirming the ‘official’ view. The U.S. Treasury is silent, even though it is in their department, because we believe, that with the audience the Fed has in the media, the message was given full force when she gave it. It’s the end of the dollar’s bull market, because the Fed and the Treasury want that to be so.
 

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#32
People Are Fed Up With the Status Quo, But is it Too Late?
By: Nathan McDonald
Perhaps it is not too late and real change can be achieved in the system. If Trump sticks to what he says and is able to survive long enough in office to make radical changes, then there may yet be hope for the United States. Regardless of what is to come, real change is on the horizon for better or for worse. Pain will be had no matter which avenue the world travels down. The only difference is, one path leads to light, and one to darkness. Only time will tell if we are smart enough to pick the right one – let’s hope we are.


Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain Before Jobs Day
By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com
Gold gained $14.60 to $1240.20 at about 9AM EST before it chopped back lower into the close, but it still ended with a gain of 0.46%. Silver rose to as high as $15.521 and ended with a gain of 1.38%.
 

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#34
RANsquawk preview: Non farm payrolls March 2016
RAN squawk


Published on Apr 1, 2016
 

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#35
Frontrunning: April 1


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/01/2016 07:32 -0400

  • Saudi Arabia Will Only Freeze Oil Production If Iran Joins (BBG)
  • Japanese gloom ensures slow start to quarter for world stocks (Reuters)
  • Saudi Arabia Plans $2 Trillion Megafund for Post-Oil Era (BBG)
  • Prices Sag in Warning to ECB Even as Manufacturing Picks Up (BBG)
  • China factories scent hint of spring, Europe still chilly (Reuters)
  • Theranos Devices Often Failed Accuracy Requirements (WSJ)
  • Macau Casino Sales Drop More Than Estimates After Festival (BBG)
  • NY state in tentative deal to raise minimum wage toward $15 an hour (Reuters)
  • Reddit deletes surveillance 'warrant canary' in transparency report (Reuters)
  • China’s Fosun to Pull Back on Foreign Buying Spree, Chairman Says (WSJ)
  • World's Largest Coal Miner Posts Record Haul as Oversupply Looms (BBG)
  • Drug shortages prompt question: are some medicines too cheap? (Reuters)
  • Egypt blocked Facebook Internet service over surveillance (Reuters)
  • Counter-Terrorism Center Says About 1,200 Foreign Fighters in EU (BBG)
  • The Credit Collapse Opened the Door for Trump and Sanders (BBG)
  • Kremlin hopes Syrian government delegation will show flexibility at peace talks (Reuters)
  • World Bank official says political crisis threatens Ukraine reform drive (Reuters)
  • Tesla unveils $35,000-Model 3 with range of 215 miles (Reuters)
  • Indian police file homicide case after overpass collapse kills 23 (Reuters)
  • Walker Sees Cruz Victory Over Trump in Wisconsin Resetting Republican Race (BBG)


Bulletin Headline Summary

WSJ

- China's Anbang has informed Starwood Hotels that it is walking away from a $14-billion bid for the hotelier, in a surprise move capping off a three-week bidding war with Marriott . (http://on.wsj.com/1q6FnE7)

- The Obama administration is preparing to help Iran get limited access to U.S. dollars as part of its relief from U.S. sanctions, officials say. (http://on.wsj.com/1ROjqze)

- The blood-testing devices that Theranos Inc touted as revolutionary often failed to meet the company's own accuracy requirements for a range of tests, including one to help detect cancer, according to a federal inspection report. (http://on.wsj.com/1RsGO9F)

- Tesla Motors Inc Chief Executive Elon Musk said the new "mass market" Model 3 vehicle has received more than 115,000 orders in 24 hours, outpacing expectations. (http://on.wsj.com/1VdFp8e)

- California and New York are moving to become the first states to lift the minimum wage to $15 an hour, propelling a wage target once focused on major urban areas into every corner of the economy from farm communities to industrial towns. (http://on.wsj.com/1PI9QfT)



FT

*A pan-African investment firm, Helios Investment Partners, is set to secure a deal for key divisions of Crown Agents - a company which was once a pillar of the British empire. (http://bit.ly/1RAG0wg)

*Tui AG, the world's largest tour operator, is gaining from British holidaymakers travelling to Spain and the Canary Islands following a series of terror attacks in Turkey. (http://bit.ly/1RAG2UO)

*China's Anbang Insurance lost the bidding war for Starwood Hotels & Resorts as its investor consortium failed to demonstrate that it had the financing in place to back up its $14 billion offer. (http://bit.ly/1RAGlPz)

*PizzaExpress, one of Britain's oldest pizza chains, is adding nationwide delivery to its service as restaurants strive to compete with online food-service options and private equity-backed rivals in the UK. (http://bit.ly/1RAGBhj)



NYT

- Governor Andrew Cuomo and state legislative leaders announced on Thursday that they had reached a budget agreement that would raise the minimum wage in New York City to $15 by the end of 2018.(http://nyti.ms/1SqEGf6)

- Anbang and its partners have formally withdrawn their $14 billion takeover offer for Starwood, ceding the operator of the Westin and Sheraton chains to Marriott in a puzzling turn of events. (http://nyti.ms/1ZPjwwR)

- Medical testing done by the closely watched start-up Theranos was riddled with inaccuracies, and the company failed to follow proper procedures for quality control, according to a report released by federal regulators late on Thursday.(http://nyti.ms/1Y374Ip)

- General Electric has asked regulators to lift the "too big to fail" label on GE Capital, saying in a filing on Thursday that its finance arm had shrunk to the point where it no longer met the definition. (http://nyti.ms/25zHwYX)

- John Doerr, one of Silicon Valley's most prominent venture capitalists, is stepping back from the day-to-day management of his firm, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, in a changing of the guard. (http://nyti.ms/1UwrknC)



Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** A deal that would combine Essar Steel Algoma Inc and U.S. Steel Canada into a single steel maker is emerging as a potential path out of creditor protection for the two companies. (http://bit.ly/22Usm1B)

** Brian Porter, Chief Executive of Bank of Nova Scotia said that the bank's C$2 billion($1.53 billion) annual investment for technology was used for a wide array of things, including defense from cyber attacks. (http://bit.ly/1M5CY6p)

** Rogers Communications Inc will offer Sportsnet Now - an app that streams the live feeds from Sportsnet's main regional TV stations, plus its One and 360 networks - as a separate online subscription costing C$24.99 a month, starting April 1. (http://bit.ly/1MZ0sVv)

NATIONAL POST

** The sale of Quebec restaurant chain Groupe St-Hubert Inc is a good news story for the province, Chief Executive Jean-Pierre Léger said Thursday. (http://bit.ly/1RQyRKD)

** The phase-out of coal-fired power generation in Alberta will begin in 2018, not the mandated 2030 deadline, the president of the Coal Association of Canada said Thursday. (http://bit.ly/1SrifGM)

** An overwhelming majority of Canadians believes psychological suffering on its own should never be grounds for granting a doctor-assisted death, according to a survey by Angus Reid Institute survey. (http://bit.ly/1RQB2xH)



Britain

The Times

- The UK's current account deficit, ballooned to a record 32.7 billion pounds in the final three months of last year, the biggest deficit as a share of GDP since records began. (http://bit.ly/1RsKl83)

- The size of Britain's economy grew by an unexpected 0.6 percent in the final three months of last year, leading economists to argue that UK growth is doing better than feared. (http://bit.ly/1RsKnwA)

The Guardian

- Retailers will take the biggest financial hit from the rise in the "national living wage" as more than 300,000 workers get a pay rise from Friday 1 April. (http://bit.ly/1RsLht2)

The Telegraph

- Broadcasting giant Sky Plc is to sell its headquarters and studios in west London for 545 million euros ($620.32 million). The company has instructed agents at BNP Paribas Real Estate to find a buyer for its buildings in Osterley, which it will then rent back in an expected 30-year deal. (http://bit.ly/1RsLNHp)

Sky News

- GlaxoSmithKline Plc will change its approach to patenting to make its medicines more affordable in developing countries. The company says the move will cover about 85 countries and a combined population of more than 2 billion people. (http://bit.ly/1RsLQmM)

The Independent

- Summer bookings from British sun-seekers were up 9 percent year-on-year with Spain, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands witnessing the most significant growth, according to Tui AG. (http://ind.pn/1RsMW1P)


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-01/frontrunning-april-1
 

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#36
Japan Stocks Plunge; Europe, U.S. Futures, Oil Lower Ahead Of Payrolls


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/01/2016 06:56 -0400

For Japan, the post "Shanghai Summit" world is turning ugly, fast, because as a result of the sliding dollar, a key demand of China which has been delighted by the recent dovish words and actions of Janet Yellen, both Japan's and Europe's stock markets have been sacrificed at the whims of their suddenly soaring currencies. Which is why when Japanese stocks tumbled the most in 7 weeks, sinking 3.5%, to a one month low of 16,164 (after the Yen continued strengthening and the Tankan confidence index plunged to a 3 year low) it was anything but an April fool's joke to both local traders.

It wasn't just Japan: as Bloomberg put it beautifully, "Europe’s equity benchmark was set to erase all of its gains for March in a single day", while crude oil plunged after Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince said the kingdom will only freeze its oil output if Iran and other major producers do so. Copper rose after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing unexpectedly expanded, while shares in Shanghai were little changed.

And speaking of April fools jokes, the Chinese stock market was a tale of two halves: one public selling in the morning session which took the index as much as 2% lower, and central bank buying in the afternoon which closed the SHCOMP modestly in the green. Curiously, it was China's unexpectedly strong PMI manufacturing surveys which may have led to the early selloff, because if China is finally getting better (it isn't, it is merely enjoy the effects of the massive January $500+ billion credit impulse; the hangover comes later) then there will be no need for either more stimulus, or more accommodation by the Fed, which as everyone now knows is mostly concerned with China's economy.

A quick look at global markets this morning reveals that much of the late March euphoria may be over: the MSCI All-Country World Index dropped 0.8 percent at 6:07 a.m. in New York. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 1.7 percent after wrapping up its third quarterly decline in four on Thursday with a 1.1 percent drop as banks weighed heaviest on the index. Japan’s Topix index tumbled 3.4 percent as the country’s Tankan surveys of business conditions indicated sentiment among large manufacturers was the weakest since mid-2013. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures fell 0.4 percent, after U.S. equities ended the first quarter near where they began following a whipsaw ride that saw them rally from the worst-ever start to a year.

But all of that can change in a heartbeat after today's main event, the March payrolls hits, expected at 205K, but with a well higher whisper number. The question there, as Goldman posited last night, is whether the good news will be good, and a beat will lead to a rally, or it will be "bad" again, and a big beat results in a selloff - the answer will set the mood for market trading and reactions to economic news over the next month.

For now, this is where we stand:

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2044
  • Stoxx 600 down 1.6% to 334
  • FTSE 100 down 0.9% to 6119
  • DAX down 1.3% to 9839
  • German 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 0.16%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.23%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield up 1bp to 1.45%
  • S&P GSCI Index down less than 0.1% to 323.3
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 2.3% to 126
  • Nikkei 225 down 3.5% to 16164
  • Hang Seng down 1.3% to 20499
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3010
  • S&P/ASX 200 down 1.6% to 4999
  • 10-yr yield up 3bps to 1.8%
  • Dollar Index up 0.02% to 94.6
  • WTI Crude futures down 2.3% to $37.60
  • Brent Futures down 0.1% to $40.28
  • Gold spot up less than 0.1% to $1,233
  • Silver spot down 0.2% to $15.40
Top Global News

  • Asian markets fall. Japan’s stocks sink most in 7 weeks; Tankan index of confidence among manufacturers at 3-year low
  • China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index rose unexpectedly in March; highest level since Nov. 2014
  • Oil trades lower after Saudis announce they will freeze production only if Iran joins
  • Musk Unveils Tesla’s $35,000 Model 3 in Push for Mass Market: Battery-powered Model 3 will be rated about 215 miles range. Tesla collects more than 115,000 orders within 24 hours
  • Einhorn’s Greenlight Fund Flat in March, Halting ’16 Rebound: Firm is seeking to bounce back from 2015 loss of more than 20%. Average hedge fund is down this year amid stock-market swings
  • Anbang Abruptly Pulls Starwood Offer, Clearing Marriott Path: Group cites ‘various market considerations’ for withdrawal. Shareholder vote on Marriott takeover set for April 8
  • Yahoo Losing Another Senior Manager Amid Turnaround Effort: Sandy Gould departing after joining Web portal three years ago. Exit follows resignations of several other executives in 2015
  • JPMorgan, Wells Fargo Asked by U.S. to Save Records Tied to 1MDB: Requests add to ranks of banks cooperating in global probes. Banks, which include Deutsche Bank, aren’t seen as targets
Looking at regional markets, we find Asia stocks traded lower as participants remained tentative ahead of today's key NFP jobs data, while Chinese PMI figures also failed to inspire. Nikkei 225 (-3.4%) underperformed following a discouraging BoJ Tankan survey in which Large Manufacturing Index fell to its lowest since Q2 2013, with Panasonic leading the declines after a weak profit outlook. Shanghai Comp (-0.8%) is also negative despite better than expected official and Caixin Manufacturing PMI figures, which lessens the need for further stimulus measures, while the PBoC's net weekly injection dropped significantly. 10yr JGBs reversed early weakness amid the widespread cautious tone as some analysts noting participants shifting funds into the long-end, while the BoJ's were also in the market under its massive bond purchase program.

Asian Top News

  • China Factory Gauge Unexpectedly Jumps as Stimulus Kicks In: March manufacturing PMI 50.2 vs est. 49.4
  • Corporate Sentiment in Japan Slumps to Near Three-Year Low: March large manufacturer Tankan falls to 6 vs est. 8
  • Ratan Tata, Unbridled at 78, Meets His Young Self in Startups: Former Tata Group chairman has invested in >25 ventures
  • Indonesia to Deploy F-16s to Guard South China Sea Territory: Defense minister Ryacudu comments after incident with China
European equities kick-start the new quarter with losses following the overnight slump in Japanese equities in which the latest Tankan Survey fell to a 3-year low. On a stock specific basis, Zurich Insurance (-8.2%) underperforms this morning after going ex-div, while the iTraxx sub financial index has been showing signs of distress amid weakness in Italian banks throughout much of the week. Gilts have underperformed this morning with participants noting yesterday's record high deficit the UK could be vulnerable to certain external shocks, such as a Brexit. Elsewhere, bunds have held steady following quarter-end balance sheet adjustments and ahead of the US NFP report, with peripheral yields wider.

European Top News

  • BHP Facing Billions in Disaster Payouts Boosts Brazil Staffing: Senior executives deployed to speed settlement, restart mine. Staff increased to 30 from 8, and moved closer to dam site
  • Hollande in Search of a Strategy as Plans to Fix France Unravel: President dumps two key policies in a month as party rebels. Polls close to record low as Socialist base deserts Hollande
  • Rajoy Struggles for Credibility as Spanish Deficit Misses Target: Shortfall hit 5.2% in 2015 against EU-set target of 4.2%. Commission reiterates concerns about Spanish fiscal record
  • Javid to Meet Welsh Steel Workers as U.K. Seeks to Save Plant: UK business secretary cuts short Australia trip due to crisis. About 6,500 jobs threatened in Wales with votes looming
In commodities, oil headed for the first weekly decline since February as OPEC output rose and expanding U.S. stockpiles kept inventories at the highest level in more than eight decades. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased supply by 64,000 barrels to 33.09 million a day in March as Iraqi output gained and Iran pumped at the highest level in almost four years, according to a Bloomberg survey of oil companies, producers and analysts.

The warning by Mohammed bin Salman, 30, who’s emerged as Saudi Arabia’s leading political force, leaves the outcome of a meeting between OPEC and other big oil producers this month in question. Iran has already said it plans to boost its production after the lifting of sanctions following a deal to curb the country’s nuclear program.

Crude futures dropped 1.8 percent to $37.66 a barrel in New York on Friday. Copper for three-month delivery in London rebounded from the lowest in almost a month, gaining 0.6 percent, while aluminum and lead rose more than 1 percent. Nickel and tin declined.

In FX, the yen, which typically moves at odds with Japanese shares, gained 0.2 percent to 112.40 per dollar. The currency was the second-best performer in Asia in the first quarter, climbing 6.8 percent. The euro gained 0.2 percent $1.1400. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the greenback versus 10 major peers, was little changed near its lowest level since the end of June.

A Bloomberg gauge tracking 20 developing-nation currencies fell less than 0.1 percent after surging more than 6 percent last month in a record gain.

South Korea’s won led declines on Friday after reaching the strongest in four months on Thursday, when it completed its biggest monthly advance since 2009. The Mexican peso, Turkish lira and Russian ruble slipped at least 0.2 percent. Indonesia’s rupiah and South Africa’s rand bucked the trend, rising 0.6 percent and 0.3 percent.

It's a busy day in the US where the March employment report will be the headline news, but there is also other important data in the form of the ISM manufacturing for last month which, given the improvement in recent regional readings, is expected to nudge up 1.5pts to 51.5. As well as this we’ll also see construction spending data, the final manufacturing March PMI and the last revision to the March University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. Finally the latest US vehicles sales numbers get released tonight.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • Overnight slump in Japanese equities following lacklustre Tankan data provides the impetus for weakness across EU bourses.
  • WTI and Brent crude futures slipped following comments from Saudi Arabia's Deputy Crown Prince who stated that they will only freeze oil output if Iran joins
  • Looking ahead, Highlights include US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Manufacturing PMI, U. of Mich. Sentiment and Fed's Mester (Voter, Soft Hawk)
  • Treasuries sell off, global equity markets lower, oil drops in overnight trading; today brings nonfarm payrolls report (est. 205k) and unemployment rate est. 4.9%).
  • China’s official factory gauge showed improving conditions for the first time in eight months, suggesting the government’s fiscal and monetary stimulus is kicking in
  • Negative interest rates will make next year a difficult one for Japanese lenders and the central bank should examine the impact of the policy before pushing them further below zero, the new head of the country’s banking lobby said
  • Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman laid out his vision for the Public Investment Fund, which will eventually control more than $2 trillion and help wean the kingdom off oil; Saudi Arabia will only freeze its oil output if Iran and other major producers do so
  • The $3.7 trillion U.S. municipal market earned about 0.3% in March, building on gains of 1.1% and 0.1% in January and February. It’s just the second time since 2002 that the debt has posted three straight positive months to start the year
  • U.K. manufacturing grew less than forecast in March, underscoring the uneven nature of the economy as the global slowdown takes its toll on exports
  • U.K. house prices increased for a ninth month in March as rental investors rushed to purchase property before a tax increase, Nationwide Building Society said
  • Italy’s unemployment rate rose in February as a discount on social contributions for businesses hiring more workers was being phased out, stripping job creation of a key boost with economic growth failing to accelerate
  • The Republican National Committee’s biggest challenge is beginning to take shape: how to navigate a scenario in which Trump leads his challengers in votes and delegates heading into the convention, but loses the nomination
  • $3.45b IG credit priced yesterday, weekly volume to $19.25b, March $164.055b, YTD $458.305b; $550m HY priced yesterday, WTD 7 deals $8.35b, MTD 29 deals for $22.21b, YTD 54 deals for $37.07b
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mixed; European and Asian equity markets lower; U.S. equity-index futures drop. WTI crude oil and copper drop, gold moves higher
US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Change in Non-farm Payrolls, March, est. 205k (prior 242k)
    • Two-Month Payroll Net Revision, March (prior 30k)
    • Change in Private Payrolls, March, est. 190k (prior 230k)
    • Change in Mfg Payrolls, March, est. 2k (prior -16k)
    • Unemployment Rate, March, est. 4.9% (prior 4.9%)
    • Average Hourly Earnings m/m, March, est. 0.2% (prior -0.1%)
    • Average Hourly Earnings y/y, March, est. 2.2% (prior 2.2%)
    • Average Weekly Hours All Employees, March, est. 34.5 (prior 34.4)
    • Change in Household Employment, March, est. 180k (prior 530k)
    • Labor Force Participation Rate, March, est. 62.9% (prior 62.9%)
    • Underemployment Rate, March (prior 9.7%)
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, March F, est. 51.5 (prior 51.4)
  • 10:00am: ISM Manufacturing, March, est. 51 (prior 49.5)
    • ISM Prices Paid, March, est. 44 (prior 38.5)
    • ISM New Orders, March (prior 51.5)
  • 10:00am: Construction Spending, Feb., est. 0.1% (prior 1.5%)
  • 10:00am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, Mar F, est. 90.5 (prior 90)
    • Current Conditions, March F (prior 105.6)
    • Expectations, March F (prior 80)
    • 1 Yr Inflation, March F (prior 2.7%)
    • 5-10 Yr Inflation, March F (prior 2.7%)
  • 12:00pm: Industrial Production, benchmark revisions
  • TBA: Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales, March, est. 13.8m (prior 13.74m)
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales, March, est. 17.5m (prior 17.43m)
  • 1:00pm: Fed’s Mester speaks in New York
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to April and the first day of the new quarter. The last three months will be hard to beat for the sheer turbulence, volatility and huge swings in asset prices which swept through markets. The good news is that the positive momentum which started around midway through February continued through much of March and as you’ll see in our performance review at the end, there was a big rebound for the vast majority of risk assets. As usual see the PDF for all the associated charts and tables.

The first day of this month is also a big one for markets with the US employment report for March the highlight this afternoon. Current market expectations for nonfarm payrolls are sitting at 205k which compares to the 242k number we got back in February. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.9% and average hourly earnings are expected to rise +0.2% mom during the month. With all the chatter from recent Fed speakers and also Yellen on the importance of evidence of further signs in wage inflation it will be the key to keep an eye on the latter in particular. Our US economists are a little more cautious ahead of today’s release and despite the trend like ADP reading, have a below consensus 175k forecast for payrolls. They note that this would have the effect of lifting the unemployment rate back to 5.0%, while they are also slightly less optimistic with regards to the earnings data (expect average hourly earnings growth of +0.1% mom). They note that their forecast for below-trend employment is consistent with their meagre Q1 real GDP growth projection of 0.5%. Another interesting point they make is that they have noticed a recent tendency for the median consensus forecast for March to overestimate the initially-reported March payroll gain. In fact, they highlight that the median forecast for March has over-predicted the initial payroll figure in five out of the last six years. All this to look forward to this afternoon.

Before we get there though, glancing at our screens this morning bourses in Asia have kicked off April and the second quarter on a down note with Japanese equity markets in particular tumbling sharply lower following a disappointing Q1 Tankan Survey. The Nikkei and Topix are currently -3.06% and -2.94% respectively. Losses have come after the Tankan survey of large manufacturers fell 6pts to 6 last quarter (vs. 8 expected). The outlook index was similarly disappointing (-4pts to 3; 7 expected) while there were softer than expected results for small manufacturers also. The latest figures reflect the difficulty for the industry following the recent strengthening in the Yen and underscore the challenges the BoJ faces.

Bourses are also lower in China this morning with the Shanghai Comp currently -1.42%. That’s despite better news from the latest PMI numbers there. The manufacturing PMI rebounded 1.2pts last month to a better than expected 50.2 (vs. 49.4 expected) which is the first reading above 50 since July last year. The non-manufacturing PMI also improved in March, rising 1.1pts to 53.8. The data has helped boost metals and emerging market currencies in Asia this morning. Elsewhere in Asia we’re also seeing legs lower for the Hang Seng (-1.32%), Kospi (-0.80%) and ASX (-1.64%). Asia and Australia credit indices have generally outperformed this morning.

It was hard to get too excited about much of the price action in markets yesterday with pre-payrolls lethargy and some quarter end positioning seemingly dominating much of the activity. The strong run for US equities this week stumbled into last night’s close with the S&P 500 eventually finishing the day -0.20%. Prior to this European equities posted bigger losses (Stoxx 600 -1.07%) with much of the commentary attributing this to a poor day for Italian banks. An early tumble for WTI also seemingly didn’t help price action there although by the close of play Oil was back to pretty much unchanged on the day and hovering just north of $38/bbl. The USD continues to weaken in the wake of Yellen after closing another -0.27% yesterday meaning it has fallen every day this week. Some of the sharper moves yesterday came in the rates space and specifically for Treasuries where we saw the curve flatten. Much of the reports suggested that this was month/quarter end rebalancing more than anything else but we did however see 10y yields fall over 5bps to 1.770% which means they are back at the lowest level since the end of February.

In terms of yesterday’s economic data, the main takeaway was yet more evidence for further improvement in the US manufacturing data. The March Chicago PMI reading was reported as increasing 6pts last month to a better than expected 53.6 (vs. 50.7 expected) and the second highest reading since last July. Also supportive was the lesser followed ISM Milwaukee which rose 2.5pts to 57.8 in March, meaning it has trended higher for four consecutive months now. Both data points supportive ahead of today’s ISM manufacturing print. Also out yesterday was the latest initial jobless claims data which showed claims rising 11k last week to 276k (vs. 265k expected). Claims have now risen for four consecutive weeks although have now been below 300k for more than a year, the best run since 1973.

Datawise in Europe yesterday, the main focus was on the Euro area CPI data which saw the headline rise one-tenth as expected to -0.1% yoy in March. The core print nudged up two-tenths to +1.0% (vs. +0.9% expected). Away from this and in the UK we got final confirmation of the Q4 GDP reading which was actually revised up one-tenth at the final read to +0.6% qoq. This had the effect of lifting the YoY rate to +2.1% from +1.9%. UK mortgage approvals were also reported as beating (73.9k vs. 73.5k expected) while net lending and consumer credit numbers met market expectations. The only other data to note was some surprisingly soft retail sales numbers out of Germany in February (-0.4% mom vs. +0.4% expected).

Elsewhere, there was yet more Fedspeak for us to digest yesterday with the latest comments coming from NY Fed President Dudley after the closing bell in the US last night. The Fed official echoed Yellen’s comments in so far as the Fed should look to proceed cautiously, while also speaking positively about the progress the US economy has made on employment and inflation objectives. Dudley made few comments with regards to his outlook for further tightening but did note that, should the US economy stay on the current trajectory, then ‘gradual normalization’ is most likely. Prior to this we also heard from Atlanta Fed President Lockhart and Chicago Fed President Evans again. Lockhart said that there is scope for three rate increases this year, but that he doesn’t see a lot of risk of a policy error from a patient and deliberate approach. Meanwhile Evans reiterated his call for two rate hikes this year.

Taking a look at the day ahead now. Kicking off the proceedings this morning in Europe will be the final revisions to the manufacturing PMI’s in Europe (no change expected for the Euro area at 51.4) as well as the first reads for the likes of Spain and Italy. We’ll also get some house price data out of the UK and the latest unemployment rate figure for the Euro area (expected at 10.3%). In the US this afternoon the primary focus will of course be on the aforementioned March employment report however there’s also more important data in the form of the ISM manufacturing for last month which, given the improvement in recent regional readings, is expected to nudge up 1.5pts to 51.5. As well as this we’ll also see construction spending data, the final manufacturing March PMI and the last revision to the March University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. Finally the latest US vehicles sales numbers get released tonight. Away from the data the latest Fedspeak comes in the form of Mester (due 5.00pm BST) who is due to provide her economic outlook in NY.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...ge-europe-us-futures-oil-lower-ahead-payrolls
 

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#37
Visualizing The Automation Potential Of U.S. Jobs (Fast-Food Workers & Truckers Beware)


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/31/2016 22:29 -0400


We noted last week that 1.3 million industrial robots would be installed between 2015 and 2018, and this would more than double the stock of active robots around the world.

While many of those robots will be used in the automotive and electronics sectors, VisualCapitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes that there are many other roles that robots will be filling in the future. Surprisingly, according to global consultant McKinsey & Co, not all of these jobs are low-skill, low-wage jobs, either.

Mckinsey ran a comprehensive study of nearly 800 different jobs in the United States, ranging from CEOs to fast food workers. Between these roles, they found 2,000 individual work activities, and assessed them against 18 different capabilities that could potentially be automated. In their analysis, they found that 45% of work activities representing $2 trillion in wages can already by automated based on proven technology that currently exists. A further 13% of work activities in the U.S. economy could be automated if the technologies used to understand and process human language were brought up to the median human level of competence.

(click image for fully interactive version)





WHO’S IN, WHO’S OUT?

The interactive visualization above charts specific careers on their automation potential (out of 100%) along with the hourly average wage of the job.

What is most interesting about the analysis is that automation potential doesn’t correlate with low-skill, low-wage jobs as much as one may think. While it’s true that the three million fast food workers across the country have an automation potential of 74%, and that heavy truck driving activities can be 69% automated, there are also great counter-examples: for example, only 7% of manual labor and 22% of janitorial activities could be automated.

Likewise, high-paying jobs are not necessarily robot-proof.

Doctors (23%), nurses (29%), and even CEOs (25%) all have significant amounts of their jobs that can be automated with current technology. Almost half (47%) of what pharmacists do can be done by a robo-pharmacist, and 72% of commercial pilot activities can be done through computers.

Not interested in having a robot fill your shoes? Mckinsey notes at the end of their analysis that both creativity and sensing emotion are extremely difficult to automate. Focus on building skills and competencies in these categories, and you’ll be just fine (for now, at least).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...ial-us-jobs-fast-food-workers-truckers-beware
 

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#39
Gold Prices Rise 16% In Q1 – Best Quarter In 30 Years
By: Mark O'Byrne, GoldCore
– Gold prices gained 16% in Q1 – best quarterly performance since 1986
– Gains due to increasing global financial, macroeconomic and monetary risk
– Stocks come under pressure – Flat in U.S.; Falls in Europe and Asia
– Sterling fell 20% on BREXIT concerns and the euro fell 11% against gold
– Canadian dollar fell 10%, Aussie dollar fell 9% & Swiss franc fell 12% against gold
– Outlook positive as gold and silver remain undervalued
– Reasserted role as safe haven in Q1
 

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#40
Deprogram Yourself
By: Gary Tanashian
The title of this article is not an assumption that you, astute reader, are little more than a robot following the direct and implied commands of other robots when trying to make logical sense of the state of modern financial markets. Personally, I have found that I need to stay on a path of post-deprogramming maintenance in order to stay right with a complex market backdrop.