• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding metals, finance, politics, government and many other topics"

R.T.M. ~ Frontrunning ~ 14th Ed., Vol.2 ~ Apr 4th - 8th

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#3
Architects Part 2 - Balance of Payments
belangp


Published on Apr 2, 2016
When the honesty of gold exceeds the capacity of mankind to deal with each other in honest trade, the only option is to become your own sovereign.
 

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#4
The New Case for Gold | Jim Rickards
FinanceAndLiberty.com


Published on Apr 2, 2016
Christian economist Jerry Robinson discusses "The New Case for Gold" and other issues with popular economist and NYT best-selling author, Jim Rickards.

They say gold is a “barbarous relic.”
They say there isn’t enough gold to support finance and commerce.
They say the gold supply can’t increase fast enough to support world growth.

According to Jim Rickards, they’re wrong. In his new (not-even-released yet) book, The New Case for Gold shows why.

In this interview, Rickards asserts that:

- The next financial collapse will be exponentially bigger than the panic of 2008.

- The time will come, sooner rather than later, when there will be panic buying of gold, and only central banks, hedge funds, and other big players will be able to buy any gold at all.

- It’s not too late to prepare ourselves as a nation: there’s always enough gold for a gold standard if we specify a stable, nondeflationary price.

This video was posted with permission from http://FTMDaily.com

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#5
FWIW (DYODD):

Weekly Forex Review - 4th to the 8th of April
Forex Reviews


Published on Apr 2, 2016

Weekly Forex Outlook and Review for the 4th to the 8th of April 2016.

Lot's of potential zones and areas of interest covered this week in the review to look for potential evidence and opportunities in the upcoming market ahead.

Zones and areas of interest highlighted this week in the review include trend based zones as well as some high probability counter trend zones.

Thanks for watching and Happy Trading, if you watched this bio do not forget to comment, like and subscribe. Also comment "Happy Trading" below to let me know you read the bio as well.

I appreciate you all. Have a great trading week!
 

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#6
FWIW:

Gold & Silver Manipulation Steadily Approaching the End - Andy Hoffman Interview
VisionVictory


Published on Apr 3, 2016


Meet with Andy & Miles Franklin, email ahoffman@milesfranklin.com
Fort Lauderdale, FL on April 21
Houston, TX on May 20
Chicago, IL on June 24

TOPICS IN THIS INTERVIEW:
01:40 Meetups with Miles Franklin & Andy Hoffman
03:50 Federal Reserve Confused on Rate Hikes for 2016
08:30 Gold/Silver/Mining Looking Very Bullish
10:00 Gold/Silver Price Manipulation About to Fail?
14:30 FED will have to Lower Rates & Do QE
16:10 Stock Manipulation Getting Desperate
18:45 2016 Election Rigging Risky
20:45 US Worst Economy Since Great Depression

Andy is a frequent guest and also one of our most popular. See our other interviews with him and related content:
http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/tag/...
 

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#7
Bo Polny-Biblically Bad Economic Crash Coming
Greg Hunter


Published on Apr 3, 2016
Cycle analyst Bo Polny says the time it takes the stock market to hit bottom from its prior top is getting shorter. The 2007 top to the 2009 bottom in the stock market took a little less than two years. The latest top happened in July of 2015, and Polny says this top to bottom crash will take half the time of the last crash. Polny predicts, “The next bottom will happen between now and this coming August. . . . This is going to be Biblically bad . . . . You are going to have a day where the Dow might drop 4,000 points . . . the next turn is going to be a crash low, and that’s supposed to come in the next few months. Being long in the market is crazy. We keep having lower highs. . . . Being long in the market is extremely dangerous.”

Polny closed by pointing out, “The reason for the crash will be because gold and silver will be exploding higher. That is going to create a huge derivative issue. That, then in turn, triggers the collapse and the meltdown of the stock market.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with cycle analyst Bo Polny of Gold2020Forecast.com.

All Links can be found on USAWatchdog.com: http://usawatchdog.com/crash-of-bibli...

http://usawatchdog.com/donations/
 

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#9
UnderTheLens - 02 24 16 - MARCH - Central Bank Intervention Coming
GordonTLong


Published on Apr 3, 2016
Released to Subscribers February 24th, 2016
 

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#10
RANsquawk Week Ahead - 4th April 2016
RAN squawk


Published on Apr 4, 2016
 

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#11
Frontrunning: April 4


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/04/2016 07:39 -0400


  • Ties between Germany and Russia enter new chill (Reuters)
  • Tax authorities begin probes into some people named in Panama Papers leak (Reuters)
  • SEC investigates ex-JPMorgan debt traders (FT)
  • Who Will Win Wisconsin? Here Are Six Credible Predictions (BBG)
  • Victim in Wall St. Scheme Was a Classmate of Its Accused Architect (NYT)
  • Makers took big price increases on widely used U.S. drugs (Reuters)
  • Fed’s New Bank Critic Keeps Heat On (WSJ)
  • Biggest Ever Saudi Overhaul Targets $100 Billion of Revenue (BBG)
  • Behind Anbang’s Curious Starwood Courtship (WSJ)
  • Migrants sent back from Greece arrive in Turkey under EU deal (Reuters)
  • Tesla Model 3 orders point to potential $10bn sales (FT)
  • Euro-Area Unemployment Declines to Lowest Since 2011 (BBG)
  • Saudi Arabia Enters Homebuilding Business to Tackle Shortage (BBG)
  • Bernie Sanders' ghost tweeter keeps his Brooklyn accent (Reuters)
  • Alaska Air to buy Virgin America for $2.6 billion (Reuters)
  • ECB to Keep Up Forceful Action on Price Risks, Praet Says (BBG)


Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

- Alaska Air Group Inc is expected to announce on Monday that it won the auction for Virgin America Inc, beating rival JetBlue Airways Corp in a frenzied bidding process that culminated in a cash price of about $2.5 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. (http://on.wsj.com/239acWy)

- Reservations for Tesla Motors Inc's Model 3 electric car have now topped 276,000 since the company began taking deposits on March 31. Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave an update on reservations through Twitter late Saturday evening, after updating the figure several times since Thursday evening's unveiling of the prototype Model 3, due to be out in late 2017. (http://on.wsj.com/224gRin)

- Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Sunday that the Federal Bureau of Investigation hasn't yet contacted her about her use of a private email server and some of her most sensitive emails. (http://on.wsj.com/239Qf1J)

- Hain Celestial Group, maker of natural shampoos and soaps, said it was reformulating dozens of products and dropping claims that they don't contain sodium lauryl sulfate, a cleaning agent often used in mainstream products. (http://on.wsj.com/1SLTTdq)



FT

Five former traders from Barclays are set to stand trial this week on charges of fraud related to Libor. (http://on.ft.com/1N4pK4u)

The U.S. Securities Exchange Commission has launched an investigation into government debt trades made by two former JPMorgan Chase and Co employees. (http://on.ft.com/1N4pRgC)

A catalogue of failings led to the collapse of an NHS contract seven months after it began, an official report concluded. (http://on.ft.com/1N4q0Rf)

Pre-orders for Tesla Model 3 continued over the weekend, raising questions about the carmaker's ability to meet demand. (http://on.ft.com/1N4q1Vk)



NYT

- One of Wall Street's top deal makers Scott Barshay is moving to Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison after a 25-year career at the white-shoe law firm Cravath, Swaine and Moore. (nyti.ms/239Q3Qd)

- In an article, the International Consortium of investigative Journalists said leaked documents from a Panama law firm Mossack Fonseca revealed the offshore accounts of 140 politicians and public officials, including a dozen current and former world leaders and several individuals with close ties to President Vladimir Putin of Russia.(nyti.ms/1RyTU5p)

- When Andrew Caspersen sought money for an investment that federal authorities said duped investors out of tens of millions of dollars, one of the people he turned to was a college classmate at Princeton University, James McIntyre. McIntyre managing director at the hedge fund Moore Capital Management, is the previously unidentified individual who federal prosecutors said last week invested - and lost - $400,000 in Caspersen's scheme. (nyti.ms/1ZY7p0A)



Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wants to transform the Liberal Party from a members-only club into a more inclusive - and free - political movement. A proposal, adopted at a meeting of the party's national board over the weekend, would do away with the long-standing policy that only dues-paying, card-carrying Liberals can get involved in party activities. (http://bit.ly/1W4XxSo)

** A massive leak of millions of confidential documents from a Panamanian law firm has drawn back the curtain on the world of offshore tax evasion and money laundering, and allegedly includes a $2-billion money trail linked to associates of Russian President Vladimir Putin. (http://bit.ly/1RIdHfm)

NATIONAL POST

** Starbucks Canada to start selling wine, craft beer and cider in Toronto as it hones in on customer base (http://bit.ly/1V3GOPW)



Britain

The Times

Tens of thousands of steelworkers in the UK could have their pensions cut under plans by Tata Steel to wash its hands of the 15 billion pounds British Steel retirement scheme.(http://bit.ly/1RW1SYv)

In order to give its staff in the UK "a balanced view", JP Morgan has drafted in former EU commissioner Peter Mandelson and two pro-Brussels business leaders to warn staff against Brexit.(http://bit.ly/1Y98NMk)

The Guardian

Police have warned people in Lancashire and Wilmslow, Cheshire, not to use Santander cash machines, following reports of suspicious devices being found on the bank's machines across Lancashire last week. (http://bit.ly/1RGv00f)

Though Beijing is optimistic about its plans to help build new reactors at Hinkley in Somerset and Bradwell in Essex, an agreement between Chinese nuclear firm CGN and its partner EDF of France to develop the first new reactors in Britain for 20 years has still not been signed.(http://bit.ly/25EjhJ0)

The Telegraph

Britain's exit from the European Union would lead to the "implosion" of the continental bloc and force the United States to intervene to put "Humpty Dumpty back together again", Xavier Rolet, head of the London Stock Exchange said. (http://bit.ly/1RW39P6)

Britain's steel industry is set to be saved from collapse by two little-known financiers who hope to revive the "British Steel" name. (http://bit.ly/1qhju51)

Sky News

Millions of documents leaked to a number of media organisations across Europe apparently show the ways the rich and famous leaders, politicians including three former Tory MPs and six peers, can exploit secretive offshore tax regimes. (http://bit.ly/1RVOvYe)

Billionaire Investor Wilbur Ross is among a pack of possible buyers who are likely to be contacted in the coming days, to rescue Tata Steel's UK operations.(http://bit.ly/1W3x0Vy)

The Independent

A multibillion pound move to save Britain's steel industry from collapse by underwriting some of its pension liabilities, cutting its energy bills and modernising its largest plant is being prepared by the British Government.(http://ind.pn/1RZKV98)



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-04/frontrunning-april-4
 

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#12
Global Stocks Rise, Europe Rebounds As Oil Halts Decline


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/04/2016 06:39 -0400


In a quiet start to the week following last week's surprisingly strong rebound which followed a stronger than expected jobs report (perhaps to demonstrate that good news is once again good news), Japan stocks continued to sink as the USDJPY dropped to fresh lows, while commodities declined for a fifth day as the supply glut from crude to copper weighed on prices, dragging down commodity currencies. European equities rose, rebounding from a one-month low.

Crude fell in early trading after Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince said last week the kingdom will only arrest production if Iran does, although it has since posted a modest rebound, while copper dropped to a one-month low. European stocks advanced after trading at their lowest valuations in more than a year relative to U.S. equities, even as France’s phone companies tumbled after a deal to consolidate the nation’s telecommunications industry fell apart.

“Three of the major commodities oil, gold and copper have all retraced in recent days,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S told Bloomberg. “Saudi Arabia caused a major upset on Friday by saying that a freeze deal was conditional of Iran joining which will not happen at this stage.” Copper and industrial metals have been hurt on concern China’s investment-led economic boom won’t be enough to avoid more cutbacks, he said.

In key macro news, Euro-area unemployment dropped to 10.3% in February down from an upwardly revised 10.4%, and the lowest level since 2011, in line with estimates. “I see this number as a movement sideways,” said Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. “This is a reflection of what is happening in the economy. Growth has clearly weakened in the second half of last year and the first quarter of this year will also probably be a bit weaker.”



Youth unemployment remained disturbingly high, with 21.6% of Europeans under 25 unemployed, just modestly lower than the 22.7% a year ago.

In other news, Eurozone producer price inflation also dropped, this time by -0.7%, and down -4.2%, to the most negative annual increase since the financial crisis.





The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.8%, after being in the red earlier, while futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.2% despite the GAAP PE multiple on the S&P hitting approaching 24, the highest level since the dot com era. While U.S. stocks erased annual losses and closed at their highest level of the year on Friday, the rebound in European shares has stalled for more than two weeks. With a valuation of about 14.7 times estimated earnings, the Stoxx 600 traded at its lowest level since January 2015 relative to the S&P 500 on Friday.

This is where markets stood as of this moment:

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2068
  • Stoxx 600 up 0.8% to 336
  • FTSE 100 up 0.3% to 6165
  • DAX up 0.3% to 9829
  • German 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 0.13%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.23%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield up 1bp to 1.45%
  • S&P GSCI Index down 0.3% to 315.5
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.3% to 126
  • Nikkei 225 down 0.3% to 16123
  • S&P/ASX 200 down less than 0.1% to 4995
  • US 10-yr yield down 1bp to 1.76%
  • Dollar Index up 0.13% to 94.74
  • WTI Crude futures down 0.7% to $36.53
  • Brent Futures down 0.3% to $38.55
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,217
  • Silver spot down 0.6% to $14.96
Top News:

  • Orange-Bouygues Deal Collapse Ends Months of Tense Diplomacy: Deal to consolidate French telecom industry proved too complex; government demands on price, governance were late obstacle
  • Alaska Air Said Near Accord to Buy Branson’s Virgin America: Negotiations are advanced, deal could face regulatory scrutiny after wave of combinations; JetBlue Airways was said to be other competitor in bidding; Alaska Air Seen Winning Virgin America for ~$2.5b Cash: WSJ
  • World Leaders Hid Wealth Via Shell Companies, Report Alleges: Leaked files from Panama law firm show web of hidden wealth, International Consortium of Investigative Journalists says
  • Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Mulls U.S. Regional Banks in Growth Bid: U.S. banking market remains aa focus because of size and steady growth as lender wants to be among top 10 U.S. banks by deposits
  • Biggest Ever Saudi Overhaul Targets $100 Billion of New Revenue: Levies on expats, energy, luxury goods, sugary drinks seen; plan is to boost non-oil revenue to balance budget by 2020
  • Amtrak Resumes Service After Fatal Crash Slows Northeast Trains: To restore regular train service today in Northeast after crash that killed 2 railroad workers near Philadelphia
  • Blackstone to Buy HPE’s Stake in Mphasis for $825m: To buy at least 84% of HPE’s stake for 430 rupees/share, remaining 16% will be bought through mandatory tender offer
  • SoftBank’s Arora Said in ‘Active’ Talks With Yahoo: N.Y. Post: SoftBank President Arora said to be in talks with Yahoo’s board, including CEO Marissa Mayer
  • Trump Back on Attack Demanding Kasich Exit, Predicting Recession: Trump demanded competitor John Kasich drop out of the Republican presidential race and asserted U.S. is headed for a “very massive recession”
  • Top JPMorgan Treasuries Trader’s Exit Said to Draw SEC Inquiry: Regulators examining alleged policy breaches that prompted JPMorgan’s U.S. head of government-bond trading and another employee to leave firm this year, according to person briefed on the matter
  • ‘Batman v Superman’ Rules Box Office for Second Weekend: movie registered hefty sales amid light competition from new releases
Looking at regional markets, we find that Asian stocks trade mostly positive following last Friday's gains on Wall St. where stronger than expected NFP and Average Hourly Earnings data lifted sentiment, despite weakness across the commodities complex. This saw the ASX 200 (+0.05%) underpinned from the open with participants also short-covering following last week's declines. Nikkei 225 (-0.25%) saw indecisive price action as a firmer JPY weighed on sentiment, while trade in the region was also thin with China, Hong Kong and Taiwan markets closed for Ching Ming festival. 10 year JGBs traded higher amid indecisiveness in riskier assets while the BoJ also entered the market to purchase about JPY 1.2trl of government debt.

Top Asian News

  • Goldman Says Sell Asia Currencies After Best Rally Since ’08: Predicts yen plunge to 130/dollar, yuan at 7 in 12 mos.
  • BOJ Negative Rates Risk Destroying Loan Market as Freeze Deepens: Call market activity at record low 2 mos. after shift
  • Japan Inc. Inflation Expectations Decline as Confidence Wanes: Cos. cut forecasts for inflation for next 5 yrs from now
  • Honda Fit Fires, Collisions Prompt at Least Sixth Major Recall: Co. recalls more than 283,000 Fits, Vezels in Japan
  • SunEdison Said to Seek Buyers for 1GW of India Solar Projects: Developer has 1,060MW of unbuilt solar projects in India, BNEF says
European equities have seen a downbeat start to the week in terms of newsflow, despite modest upside in Euro Stoxx (+0.2%), with significant underperformance seen in French telecom names after collapse of the potential deal between Orange (-5.5%) and Bouygues (-14.6%), with the likes of Iliad (-14.3%) and Numericable (-14.1%) also suffering as a consequence.

The German curve has reversed some of the initial flattening bias, with Bunds consequently moving off the best levels to trade near unchanged levels even as peripheral bond yield spreads remained broadly wider. GR/GE lOy spread widened by over 10bps even as the head of the IMF dismissed reports that the body is trying to push Greece towards default as "simply nonsense". At the same time, market participants had to contend with a large slate of EUR denominated corporate supply, with the likes of Fedex and Credit Suisse due to price.

Dovish rhetoric from ECB's Praet who said that the central bank will act forcefully to low inflation if conditions warrant did little to drive Bunds, with GE/UK spread widening amid the release of better than expected UK construction PMI data

Top European News

  • Praet Says ECB Will React ‘Forcefully’ to Low Inflation If Needed: Says “prolonged period of low inflation we are in today has increased the risks that inflation misses might become persistent”
  • SocGen Plans to Cut About 125 Jobs in France, Mostly in Trading: Plans cuts in France, mostly at trading operations as harsher capital rules put profitability under pressure
  • Melrose Said to Drop Out of Race for Philips Lighting Unit: Likelihood of IPO increases even as sale process continues
  • Greece’s Euro Future May Be Back in Play If Rescue Talks Drag On: Creditors resume talks in Athens on bailout program; pensions, tax policy remain obstacles, EU officials say
  • Lagarde Says IMF Greek Deal Far Off as Talks Roiled by Leaks: Rebuffed Greek calls to replace top officials overseeing country’s bailout, said IMF is “a good distance away” from agreement that would allow for additional loans
  • Banks, Investors Push EU to Fix Flaws in ABS Market Revival Plan: 32 Banks, asset managers and groups issue joint note on plan; signatories to letter include HSBC, BlackRock, UniCredit, BBVA
In currencies, the USD has seen modest gains today, notably against the commodity currencies and the JPY. The Aussie weakened 0.8 percent to 76.17 U.S. cents, after climbing 2.3 percent last week. Retail sales were little changed in February from a month earlier, a report showed, missing economists’ forecast for a 0.4 percent gain. The nation’s central bank reviews monetary policy on Tuesday, when it’s expected to hold borrowing costs at a record low.

The yen added 0.1 percent to 111.54 per dollar after jumping 0.8 percent on Friday amid the greenback’s retreat. The won strengthened 0.7 percent. The ruble sank 1.5 percent, falling for a second day and South Africa’s rand slid 0.5 percent, leading declines in developing-nation currencies. India’s rupee climbed to the highest this year before foreign investors bid for quotas on the country’s bonds.

In commodities, WTI and Brent have both seen positive trade in mid European trade with WTI finding support at USD 38.20/bbl with the next level in focus on the upside being USD 37.00/bbl. Gold has also seen an uptick in prices after falling earlier in the session and gapping down at the open. Silver also has recovered slightly after falling in the Asian and Early Eu session but there is a key resistance level higher a USD 15.2020/oz. Meanwhile Copper prices were subdued and remained near a monthly low with a lack buyers due to holidays in the Asia including largest consumer China on a technical note there is a key support level for Copper at around the 214.90 level which also coincides with an upward trendline on the daily chart where prices first made its lower highs. In base metals Zinc, Tin and Lead are all following in the same direction with prices edging lower.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • French telecom names lead the way lower for European equities, while Bunds fail to gain from risk off sentiment.
  • Commodity linked currencies experiencing modest weakness amid downside in the energy and metals complexes, with AUD continuing to underperform after the downbeat data from overnight.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Factory Orders and Durables Goods with speakers including Fed's Rosengren (Voter, Dove) and Kashkari (Non-Voter, N/A)
  • Treasuries little changed, European equity markets rise and Asian markets fall (China closed), oil higher in overnight trading. Today’s economic data includes factory orders, Labor Market Conditions Index.
  • Societe Generale SA said it plans to cut about 125 jobs in France, mostly at its trading operations, as stricter market regulations squeeze profitability
  • Euro-area unemployment retreated in February to 10.3%, the lowest since 2011, continuing its slow decline as the economy grows at a modest pace
  • EU efforts to revive the asset-backed securities market and boost financing for small businesses could falter if repairs aren’t made to its plan for a new class of “simple, transparent and standardized” products, some of the biggest financial firms in the 28-nation bloc said
  • Copper is heading for its longest losing streak in two years amid concern a glut will persist as miners press on with cost cuts and banks such as Barclays Plc see more losses
  • Gold’s biggest quarterly surge since 1986 has all but erased losses the Bank of Russia suffered by mounting a rescue of the ruble more than a year ago.
  • The freeze in Tokyo’s market for overnight loans looks set to extend into a third month as the Bank of Japan’s negative rate policy makes it harder for brokers to price and process transactions
  • Leaked files from a Panama law firm that creates shell companies show that politicians, criminals and celebrities worldwide have used banks and shadow companies to hide their finances
  • Iceland PM Gunnlaugsson faces a no confidence vote in parliament amid revelations he had an investment account in the British Virgin Islands created with the aid of the Panama-based law firm at the center of a global tax evasion leak.
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mostly steady; European and Asian equity markets mixed (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan closed); U.S. equity-index futures rise. WTI crude oil rises; gold and copper move lower
US Event Calendar

  • 9:45am: ISM New York, March, est. 54.1(prior 53.6)
  • 10:00am: Labor Market Conditions Index Change, March (prior -2.4)
  • 10:00am: Factory Orders, Feb., est. -1.8% (prior 1.6%)
    • Factory Orders Ex Trans, Feb., est. -0.5% (prior -0.2%)
    • Durable Goods Orders, Feb. F, est. -2.8% (prior -2.8%)
    • Durables Ex Transportation, Feb. F, est. -1.0% (prior -1%)
    • Cap Goods Orders Non-def Ex Air, Feb F (prior -1.8%)
    • Cap Goods Ship Non-def Ex Air, Feb F (prior -1.1%)
Central Banks

  • 9:30am: Fed’s Rosengren speaks in Boston
  • 7:00pm: Fed’s Kashkari speaks
DB's Jim Reid completes the overnight wrap

This week we’ve got the usual post-payrolls lull in the data but there are still a couple of events which will have some bearing on the near-term direction for markets. The first is on Wednesday evening where we’ll get the March FOMC minutes to comb through. Given the range of dovish (mainly Yellen) and hawkish (Bullard, Lacker, Lockhart, Williams) Fedspeak of late it’ll be interesting to see what clues the minutes throw up. Also potentially interesting this week is a panel interview on Thursday evening which will see current Fed Chair Yellen participate along with former Chairs Bernanke, Volcker and Greenspan.

With that to look forward to, this morning in Asia, with China and Hong Kong closed for holidays it’s been a bit of slow start with most of the price action relatively benign. In Japan we’ve seen the Nikkei (-0.18%) and Topix (+0.10%) trade between gains and losses for the most part, while elsewhere the Kospi is +0.14% and the ASX +0.19%. Credit markets are a touch tighter generally. In the FX space the Aussie Dollar is slightly weaker post some softer than expected retail sales numbers in Australia.

Moving on. News flow over the weekend and this morning has been fairly light but one story which has attracted some attention is coming out of the talks between Greece and its Creditors. Greek PM Tsipras is said to have questioned the credibility of the negotiations following the release of a leaked transcript in which negotiations were said to be 'difficult'. In an FT article this morning IMF Chief Lagarde is said to have responded to claims that the Fund was looking to push Greece towards default as a negotiating tactic as being false. Lagarde did however say that in her view a coherent program for Greece was ‘still a good distance away’ and the weekend’s incident ‘has made me concerned as to whether we can indeed achieve progress in a climate of extreme sensitivity to statements of either side’.

Reversing gear now and quickly recapping that data from Friday. In terms of the March employment report in the US, headline non-farm payrolls printed at a slightly higher than expected 215k (vs. 205k expected). That follows a 245k reading in February which was revised marginally higher on Friday. That takes the Q1 average to 209k which compares to the average monthly reading of 229k in 2015. There was good news also in the average hourly earnings numbers which rose a greater than expected +0.3% mom (vs. +0.2% expected) last month, which has had the effect of lifting the YoY rate one-tenth to +2.3%. Meanwhile, the labour force participation rate edged up one-tenth to 63.0% (highest in two years) which was seen as causing the U-3 unemployment rate to nudge up one-tenth to 5.0%. There was also no change in average weekly hours worked at 34.4hrs after expectations had been for a slight increase.

Away from the employment numbers, the March ISM manufacturing print rose a better than expected 2.3pts last month to 51.8 (vs. 51.0 expected) which is the first reading greater than 50 since August last year. New orders (+6.8pts to 58.3) were a big standout in the data with that index alone at the highest level since November 2014. That said there was a slightly softer employment component in the data which was also evident in the payrolls data for the sector. It’s worth noting that tomorrow will see the confirmation of the March non-manufacturing index reading which is expected to rise to 54.1. Should that be the case, then the spread between the two last month of 2.3pts would be the least since December 2014 (when the spread was 2pts). Meanwhile, also of note on Friday was an upward revision to the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment print last month by 1pt to 91.0. The manufacturing PMI was also nudged up 0.1pts in the final read to 51.5, however there was less good news in the construction spending numbers in February when spending was said to have decreased -0.5% mom (vs. +0.1% expected). Finally, towards to the end of Friday we also saw some disappointment in the latest US vehicle sales numbers where sales were said to have fallen back to 16.5m saar in March from 17.4m in the prior month (expectations had been for little change). While the early Easter holiday period played a part, vehicle sales have now been in a downward trend since the recent high in October last year.

In terms of the price action, risk markets had initially weakened post the flow of economic data on Friday but that was quickly reversed and markets traded firmer right up until the closing the bell. The S&P 500 eventually finished with a +0.63% gain to kick off the new month which means the index gained +1.81% over the past week. Credit markets also had a strong session on Friday with CDX IG closing 3bps tighter. The Dollar was volatile but ultimately ended up flat on Friday which means the Dollar index was down a steep 1.72% last week, the second worst week this year. US Treasuries also chopped around but the end result being little change with the benchmark 10y currently sitting at 1.765% this morning. Comments from the Fed’s Mester added little to the recent debate with the Cleveland Fed President suggesting that she sees the US economy as evolving in a way that would mean rate hikes are appropriate this year, but refusing to comment on her thoughts on potential timing.

Interestingly, the moves for risk assets in the US on Friday came despite the backdrop of a steep leg lower for Oil markets. WTI ended the week with a -4.04% loss on Friday to close at $36.79/bbl (and is down further this morning) which is the lowest closing price since March 3rd. In fact prices are now down close to 15% from their highs of last month and ahead of the upcoming meeting between producers in Doha on the 17th of April, for which expectations of a positive outcome appear to diminishing quickly. Friday’s move seemingly came about on the back of comments from Saudi Arabia’s deputy Crown Prince who said that the nation will only freeze output should Iran follow suit. This of course comes following the remarks from Iran’s oil minister who downplayed the possibility of the nation freezing current production levels.

Those declines for Oil on Friday weighed most heavily on European equity markets where we saw the Stoxx 600 tumble -1.30%, despite a late effort to bounceback into the close. That concluded a third consecutive weekly decline for the index. Prior to that we had seen some supportive manufacturing PMI numbers in the region with the Euro area print in particular revised up 0.2pts at the final read to 51.6.

As usual we’ll also be keeping a close eye on the latest chatter out of Fed officials. Kashkari and Evans are due to speak on Tuesday with Mester on Wednesday. We then hear from Kaplan early on Thursday before Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to speak in a discussion with Bernanke, Greenspan and Volcker on Thursday evening. The Fed’s George will speak on Friday. Over at the ECB we’ll hear from Praet and Constancio during the week, as well as ECB President Draghi on Thursday at a presentation in Lisbon.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-04/global-stocks-rise-europe-rebounds-oil-halts-decline
 

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#16
This one is a bit long but there is nothing to see so if you're interested in listening you can do so in one window and play around on GIM or surf the web in another window.

QE: DOLLAR'S DEATH SENTENCE | Jim Willie
FinanceAndLiberty.com


Published on Apr 4, 2016
IN THIS INTERVIEW:
- QE is a death sentence ►0:56
- Recent money velocity proven that QE and ZIRP have been failures ►7:04
- "The Great Quickening" ►15:55
- Precious metal market update ►32:12
- Iran joining Eurasian Trade Zone ►40:35
- BRICS nations falling apart ►49:37

FINANCE AND LIBERTY:
SUBSCRIBE (it's FREE!) to "Finance and Liberty" for more interviews and financial insight ►http://bit.ly/Subscription-Link
Website ► http://FinanceAndLiberty.com
Like us on Facebook ►http://fb.com/FinanceAndLiberty
Follow us on Twitter ►http://twitter.com/Finance_Liberty
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Title and video graphics by Josiah Johnson Studios ►http://JosiahJohnsonStudios.com

DISCLAIMER: The financial and political opinions expressed in this interview are those of the guest and not necessarily of "Finance and Liberty" or its staff. Opinions expressed in this video do not constitute personalized investment advice and should not be relied on for making investment decisions.
 

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#17

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#19
Shipping & Energy 04/04:

Peak Oil Review - April 4
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2016-04-04/peak-oil-review-april-4b

Port of Oakland terminal reopens after Monday closure
http://www.americanshipper.com/Main...s_after_Monday_clos_63489.aspx?source=ASDSide

ICTSI cuts 90% of Argentine workforce
http://www.aem.org/news/march-2016/ictsi-cuts-90-of-argentine-workforce/

TPP 'worst trade deal ever,' says Nobel-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/joseph-stiglitz-tpp-1.3515452

APM Terminals to operate new automated port in Morocco's Tangier
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL5N1725K4

Bankruptcy Rout Looms Despite Impressive Productivity Gains In U.S. Shale
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...mpressive-Productivity-Gains-In-US-Shale.html

Drewry Forecasts Worsening Container Shipping Market
http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/drewry-forecasts-worsening-container-rates

India Ramps Up Imports of Iranian Oil
http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/india-ramps-up-imports-of-iranian-oil

Surge in VLCC Charter Rates Expected
http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/surge-in-vlcc-charter-rates-expected

Even in Bankruptcy, Shale Drillers Keep Pumping Oil
http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/even-in-bankruptcy-shale-drillers-keep-pumping-oil
 

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#21
Jim Rickards: 2018 – SDR World Currency Backed with Gold
By: The Daily Coin
China has been promoting the ownership of Silver and Gold to it’s Citizens since September 2009. Silver is money and has been used as money longer gold. Why would China encourage their citizens to acquire physical silver and gold? What do the Chinese know that the U.S. does not? Well, both are money and the Chinese government understands the U.S. dollar will not be used outside the United States very much longer.


Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall With Stocks and Oil
By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com
Gold dropped $8.17 to $1215.23 in London before it rallied back to almost unchanged in early New York trade, but it then chopped back lower into the close and ended with a loss of 0.69%. Silver slipped to as low as $14.919 and ended with a loss of 1%.
 

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#22
Frontrunning: April 5


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/05/2016 07:38 -0400

  • Panama Papers: Biggest Banks Are Top Users of Offshore Services (WSJ)
  • Panama Papers probes opened, China limits access to news on leaks (Reuters)
  • Credit Suisse CEO Distances Bank From ‘Panama Papers’ (WSJ)
  • Fed's Evans says market more pessimistic on U.S. rate hikes (Reuters)
  • IMF's Lagarde Says Risks to Weak Global Recovery Are Increasing (BBG)
  • New U.S. inversion rules threaten Pfizer-Allergan deal (Reuters)
  • Time Is Running Out (Again) for Greece (BBG)
  • The World Has Started Spending More on Weapons (BBG)
  • Ted Cruz Is Confident of Wisconsin Win Over Donald Trump on Tuesday (WSJ)
  • Trump Faces Biggest Test Yet in Tuesday’s Wisconsin Primary (BBG)
  • Another Brazil State-Run Giant Readies Its Own Graft Writedowns (BBG)
  • Afghan Spy Agency Arms Villagers to Hold Off Islamic State (WSJ)
  • Disney expands search for new CEO, COO Staggs leaving (Reuters)
  • Economic models predict GOP White House, even with Trump (Hill)
  • Oil glut up close: How Cushing copes with full crude tanks (Reuters)
  • Goldman Profit Estimates Cut Again as Analysts Project 45% Drop (BBG)
  • Former U.S. tax judge charged with cheating on her tax returns (Reuters)
  • Russia to start deliveries of S-300 missiles to Iran in coming days (Reuters)


Bulletin Headline Summary

WSJ

- The Treasury Department imposed new tough curbs on corporate inversions Monday, shocking Wall Street and throwing into doubt the $150-billion merger between Pfizer Inc and Allergan PLC, which was on track to be the biggest deal of its kind. (http://on.wsj.com/1W7WOzY)

- Succession planning at the world's largest media company fell into disarray on Monday as Tom Staggs, Walt Disney Co's chief operating officer and the heir apparent to Chief Executive Robert Iger, unexpectedly said he would step down. (http://on.wsj.com/202jgKT)

- A battle for control of the nation's third largest home builder went public as PulteGroup Inc founder William Pulte and Chairman and Chief Executive Richard Dugas traded barbs and outlined competing visions for the company. (http://on.wsj.com/1Ty6p2x)

- TransCanada Corp said Monday that it had shut down parts of its Keystone oil pipeline for the rest of the week as the company continues to investigate a possible leak in South Dakota. (http://on.wsj.com/2289TJ7)

- United Continental Holdings Inc has reached tentative agreements with its nearly 30,000 ground workers. No details were released on the proposed labor pacts, which are subject to ratification by union members. (http://on.wsj.com/1ox3aLE)



FT

Airbus Group warned its UK employees that Brexit threatens the company's investment plans in the country. (http://on.ft.com/1Sx1Xfw)

Tesla Motors blamed its "hubris" for its production shortfalls, as the carmaker revealed glitches with the ramp up of its Model X. (http://on.ft.com/1Sx22Qo)

Pimco stepped up a legal war of words with Bill Gross, saying they could have fired him for abusing his colleagues in the months before his resignation. (http://on.ft.com/1Sx2HBn)

Walt Disney's chief operating officer, Tom Staggs, left the company. Staggs was seen as the favourite to succeed Chief Executive Bob Iger at Disney. (http://on.ft.com/1Sx2TQY)



NYT

- The U.S. Treasury Department took new steps on Monday to further curtail a popular type of merger in which an American company buys a foreign counterpart, then moves abroad to lower its tax bill. (http://nyti.ms/23clbP4)

- A group of hedge funds asked a federal court in San Juan to freeze the assets of Puerto Rico's powerful Government Development Bank, claiming it was insolvent and appeared to be spending what cash it had left to prop up other parts of the island's troubled government. (http://nyti.ms/1RB6sJm)

- Thomas Staggs, the favored contender to lead Walt Disney Co after Robert Iger's retirement, unexpectedly announced his departure on Monday, throwing succession at the world's largest entertainment company into disarray. (http://nyti.ms/1S4Bc1x)

- Governor Jerry Brown of California signed a bill on Monday that would raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2022, placing the state at the center of a closely watched economics experiment. (http://nyti.ms/1RKoXYy)



Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Canadian Labour Congress president Hassan Yussuff says Tom Mulcair does not deserve another term as NDP Leader and predicts he will win less than 60 per cent in Sunday's leadership review vote. (http://bit.ly/1N6gHQK)

** In a decision that the B.C. New Democratic Party shared only with federal regulators and its environmental supporters, the opposition has officially rejected the proposed Pacific NorthWest LNG plant near Prince Rupert, saying plans for an $11.4-billion terminal on Lelu Island would generate significant greenhouse gas emissions and threaten the important Skeena River salmon runs. (http://bit.ly/228OAao)

** The Saskatchewan Party, under the leadership of Brad Wall, won 51 seats in Monday's election. The NDP secured the remaining 10. The leader of the New Democratic Party lost his seat by 232 votes as the province's right-of-centre party waltzed to its third consecutive victory. (http://bit.ly/1RVQOY5)

NATIONAL POST

** Air Canada will firm up its CSeries order within "weeks", but some level of government funding will still be necessary to help Bombardier Inc succeed, the airline's chief executive said Monday. (http://bit.ly/1W8XKEh)

** Canada's largest commercial bank finds itself in the middle of a global uproar over leaked documents exposing activities in offshore tax havens. But the Royal Bank of Canada , which was among financial institutions named in the so-called "Panama Papers," has denied any wrongdoing, saying it has "established controls, policies and procedures in place" to detect and prevent tax evasion. (http://bit.ly/1VsWcV7)



Britain

The Times

Marathon Oil has submitted plans to shut down its giant Brae Field 168 miles northeast of Aberdeen after suffering a series of gas leaks on ageing production platforms.(http://bit.ly/1RYmWO1)

The chief executive of William Hill James Henderson has hailed a "game-changing deal" after it invested in NYX Gaming as part of the latter's 270 million pound acquisition of OpenBet. (http://bit.ly/1qqzvVV)

The Guardian

Airbus, which employs 15,000 people in the UK to design and manufacture aircraft wings, has told its staff that a vote to leave the EU could choke off future investment in the UK. (http://bit.ly/23b2M5c)

The new chief executive of Marks & Spencer, Steve Rowe, has signalled he is prepared to make changes to the way the retailer is run by retaining personal control of the troubled clothing division.(http://bit.ly/1Ma4qjn)

The Telegraph

The Government must step in to maintain production at Tata's loss-making UK plants or risk customers abandoning them, signing a death warrant for the British steel industry, unions have warned as the crisis engulfing the sector intensifies. (http://bit.ly/1UR1FX7)

Jitters over the health of the Chinese economy could trigger a bloodbath on financial markets if a hard landing materialises, the International Monetary Fund has warned. (http://bit.ly/1Vro8Zv)

Sky News

InterContinental Exchange has reached agreement with Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ to provide part of the debt that will be required to finance an offer for the LSE Group. (http://bit.ly/1V4Gnos)

The chief executive of BT Group Gavin Patterson has accused ministers of failing to acknowledge its efforts to overhaul Britain's broadband infrastructure as regulators mull tougher oversight of the former state monopoly.(http://bit.ly/23bFJr1)

The Independent

Chapel Down, a British leading wine producer based in Kent, has raised 1.7 million pound from new shares and a crowdfunding campaign to build a new beer and cider brewery. (http://ind.pn/1MOBLAk)

Alaska Air has reached a deal to buy Virgin America for $2.6 billion and the merger airline will become the fifth largest in the United States. (http://ind.pn/1PQoou7)


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-05/frontrunning-april-5
 

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#23
"Risk Off" - Global Stocks Slide As Yen Surges To 17 Month High; Bund Yields Plunge


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/05/2016 06:49 -0400


The market's slumberous levitation of the past month, in which yesterday's -0.3% drop was the second largest in 4 weeks and in which the market had gone for 15 consecutive days without a 1% S&P 500 move (in March 2015 the same streak ended at day 16) may be about to end, after an overnight session, the polar opposite of yesterday's smooth sailing, which has seen a sudden return of global risk off mood.

It all started in Japan, where the yen jumped to a 17-month high and government bonds climbed as increasing concern that global economic growth is faltering stoked demand for haven assets, catalyzed perhaps by yesterday's shocking US Treasury announcement that tax inversion deals are all but dead, in the process send Allergan stock lower by 20% and crushing countless M&A arbs. Additionally, the Yan overnight appreciated even after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he will keep monitoring foreign-exchange markets and reiterated the potential for additional monetary stimulus.

According to FX watchers the critical USDJPY carry pair may test a break of 110 as Suga’s FX remarks are unlikely to halt FX pair’s decline at this point as market players probably don’t believe Japan can intervene in market anytime soon, says FPG Securities CEO Koji Fukaya.

The surge in the Yen pushed Japan's closely correlated Nikkei another 2.4% lower to 15,732 as it rapidly approaches its February 12 lows of 14,952. We wonder how much longer Abe and Kuroda will be content to comply with the "Shanghai Accord" whose only purpose was to stem Yuan devaluation at the expense of a strong Yen and Euro. Another 5% drop in the Nikkei and suddenly rumors will reemerge that Abe's career-ending bout of diarrhea may be returning; and since Japan's QE is critical to maintaining global asset prices, the recent bout of USD weakness (and Yuan strength) may be very short-lived.

It wasn't just Japan and the Yen: in Germany bunds climbed after an unexpected drop in factory orders (down -1.2%, exp. 0.3%), with Bund yields sliding below 0.1% (0.07% to be precise) for the first time since April 2015, when the great Bund Tantrum struck which as even Goldman has admitted, was driven by ECB intervention. Will Draghi dare to sell European TSYs even as he is now actively buying Corporate IG bonds, in the process destabilizing the even more illiquid European bond market? We may find out soon.

European sentiment has also been dampened from the lackluster PMI readings from European nations with the French services reading slipping into contractionary territory, while the final PMI for Germany, Italy and the EU composite all missed: Europe may be rolling over again.

"There are worries about the global economy,” Christian Reicherter, an analyst at DZ Bank AG in Frankfurt told Bloomberg. “In this environment, bunds are still the place to go", and indeed, the chart below confirms just that.





Other were just as pessimistic: "Across Europe, the rally from Feb’16 lows is faltering and we expect
downside risks to dominate. Europe’s underperformance vs. the SPX (in
dollar terms) also shows no signs of abating”, JPMorgan analysts led by
Sunil Garg say.

As a result, stocks fell around the world, along with emerging-market currencies. All 30 stocks in Germany’s DAX Index fell after an unexpected drop in factory orders. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index sank to a five-week low and U.S. equity futures pointed to a second day of losses. South Africa’s rand and the South Korean won led declines for developing-nation currencies. Gold advanced the most in a week, and oil dropped for a third day before stockpiles data.

This is where markets are now:

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.9% to 2040
  • Stoxx 600 down 1.9% to 329
  • FTSE 100 down 1.4% to 6081
  • DAX down 2.4% to 9583
  • German 10Yr yield down 4bps to 0.09%
  • Italian 10Yr yield down 1bp to 1.23%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 1.46%
  • S&P GSCI Index down 0.2% to 310.8
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 1.6% to 124
  • Nikkei 225 down 2.4% to 15733
  • Hang Seng down 1.6% to 20177
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 3053
  • S&P/ASX 200 down 1.4% to 4924
  • US 10-yr yield down 4bps to 1.72%
  • Dollar Index up 0.11% to 94.62
  • WTI Crude futures down 0.3% to $35.59
  • Brent Futures down 0.3% to $37.59
  • Gold spot up 1.5% to $1,233
  • Silver spot up 1.6% to $15.16
Top Global News

  • Pfizer-Allergan Deal May Be Imperiled by U.S. Inversion Rules: new rules may put a planned $160 billion merger between Pfizer and Allergan in jeopardy; Allergan Falls After Treasury Rules Announced; Pfizer Gains
  • UBS, HSBC Offshore Dealings Thrust Into Panama Papers Spotlight: report describes UBS’s dealings with law firm Mossack Fonseca; both banks say they comply with laws for vetting customers; ‘Panama Papers’ Train New Spotlight on Global Elites’ Wealth
  • Tesla Deliveries Miss Forecast as ‘Hubris’ Hurts SUV Supply: automaker sold 14,820 Model S cars and Model X SUVs in 1Q, short of the 16,000 it had predicted in February; Tesla Motors CIO Vijayan Leaves to Launch Own Startup: WSJ
  • Valeant Creditors Said to Resist Proposal to Relax Loan Pact: co. facing push back from some of its lenders as it seeks to waive a default, loosen restrictions on its debt; Valeant Said to Cut Libido Pill Sales Force in Reorganization
  • Disney Says Staggs Stepping Down as Chief Operating Officer: departure complicates efforts to find heir to CEO Robert Iger; executive is said to have struggled to gain support of board
  • Pimco Says Bill Gross Was Told He’d Lose $200 Million Bonus: firm responds in suit saying CEO and counsel warned co- founder
  • Sumitomo Mitsui to Charge Fees on Accounts of Overseas Lenders: goal is to recover costs of the BOJ’s negative interest rates; Mitsubishi UFJ, Mizuho considering similar steps
  • Vale Seeking to Trim Debt Exits ThyssenKrupp Steel Venture: ThyssenKrupp to gain full control of embattled Brazilian mill; Vale free from plant’s debt obligations
  • Lagarde Cites ‘Brexit’ Among Geopolitical Risks to Global Growth: IMF Managing Director Lagarde cited the U.K.’s June referendum on exiting the EU among threats to the global economy; U.K. Growth Subdued as ‘Brexit’ Hurts Confidence, Markit Says
  • Trump Faces Biggest Test Yet in Tuesday’s Wisconsin Primary
  • Samsung Bioepis Sues AbbVie Over Humira Patent: Korea Economic Daily
Looking at regional markets, Asian stocks resided in negative territory following a similar lead from Wall St. as declines in oil weighed on risk-appetite. Nikkei 225 (-2.6%) was the underperformer and fell below 16000, pressured by a stronger JPY and losses in index giant Fast Retailing following a decline in Uniqlo sales. Weakness seen in the commodities complex dictated sentiment in the ASX 200 (-1.4%) with energy the laggard after WTI fell below USD 36/bbl, while the Shanghai Comp (+1.5%) shrugged off its initial losses amid gains in defensive stocks and after the PBoC conducted a respectable liquidity injection. 10yr JGBs traded lower despite the downbeat tone and a firm 10yr auction which drew the highest b/c since 2014, as early weakness persisted following comments
from BoJ officials including Governor Kuroda who stated they are not placing particular focus on NIRP.

BoJ Governor Kuroda said it is technically possible to cut rates further into negative territory if required, but also added they are not placing particular focus on NIRP as possible future measures. Elsewhere, BoJ is considering downgrading inflation outlook in its economic outlook report later this month amid lower expectations from households and businesses.

Top Asian News

  • Rajan Cuts India Rates to Five-Year Low, to Stay Accommodative: RBI narrows policy rate corridor to 50 bps from 100 bps
  • ‘Panama Papers’ Train New Spotlight on Global Elites’ Wealth: Leaked files draw outrage from leaders named in group’s report
  • Race Against a Weaker Yuan Spurs Chinese Overseas Acquisitions: Outbound deals top $97 billion this year, 80% of 2015’s total
  • Bond Market ‘Exhausted’ as Kuroda’s Stimulus Enters Fourth Year: Low yields accompanied by high volatility, money market stress
  • China Reserves Slide Seen Easing, Yet Dam-Bust Still a Risk: Test will come if Fed tightening expectations return
  • Yen Climbs to Strongest Since 2014 as Kuroda Monitors Market: Yen is best performer among Group of 10 currencies this year
  • China Said to Plan $155 Billion of Sour Loan-Equity Swaps: Swaps may lift banks’ net profits by 4% a year, Huatai says
In Europe, risk off sentiments dominates price action in Europe with the Eurostoxx (-2%) hit by the slump in mining and energy names. Separately, financials have also underperformed so far today in the wake of the Panama Papers scandal, with Credit Suisse lower by 3.5%. Allied to this, sentiment has also been dampened from the lacklustre PMI readings from European nations with the French services reading slipping into contractionary territory, while Germany also posted softer than expected factory orders. Subsequently, Bunds gained on the back of flight-to-quality flow to make a firm break above 164.00 with the yield curve continuing its bull-flattening bias. As such, yields broke below 0.10% having fallen to its lowest level in a year.

Top European News

  • German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Fall on Exports Slowdown: orders fall 1.2% on month vs estimate of 0.3% increase; Feb. decline led by sluggish growth in global trade; German Growth at Risk Amid Global Economic Slowdown: OECD
  • Euro Area Growth Stays ‘Sluggish’ as Markit Index Revised Lower: euro-area economy grew slower than initially anticipated at the end of 1Q, according to Markit Economics, which revised down a key index of activity
  • Thousands of Icelanders Protest as PM Ignores Calls to Quit: protests after leaked documents suggested PM Gunnlaugsson allegedly benefited from offshore investment accounts in tax havens
  • Credit Suisse CEO Says ‘Best Time’ to Grow in Asia as Rivals Cut: CEO said now is the “best time” to expand in Asia because retreats by some competitors make it easier to find top recruit
  • Peugeot Tumbles as Expansion Spending Weighs on Profit Margins: co. predicted that spending on new models and technology would weigh on profit in coming years
  • Gemalto to Propose Vallee as Successor to CEO Piou: COO Vallee to succeed CEO Olivier Piou who will retire at end of Aug.
  • Europe’s Central Banks Begin Boosting QE Price Transparency: Bank of France to follow Dutch in taking steps toward greater transparency, person familar with plan says
FX markets active this morning, but with the JPY stealing the limelight as the USD rate pushes below the March lows to take out 110.50. 110.00 holds for now, but the price action since suggests a test of this key level is imminent. Large stops reported below, but official warnings (chief government spokesman) that markets are being monitored also been fired out there, but to no effect as yet. The Yen appreciated even after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he will keep monitoring foreign-exchange markets and reiterated the potential for additional monetary stimulus.

AUD saw a brief relief rally post RBA, as the language remained very much the same, but as with the NZD and CAD, sellers have been back in since, and we have set fresh series lows in AUD and NZD, but CAD still holding off the Friday lows just ahead of 1.3150. UK services PMI came in as expected, but EUR/GBP continues to threaten .8000+ levels. Cable has held off 1.4200 for now, but no notable recovery to the likes of that seen in recent sessions. EUR/USD still poised for a breakout either way, holding inside Friday limits for now, but with a small bias to the downside after taking out the Monday base at 1.1355. The euro slid 0.2 percent to $1.1365, while the pound dropped 0.2 percent to $1.4229.

In commodities, a choppy session has seen WTI and Brent futures pare back losses seen in Asian and early European trade, with comments from the Kuwaiti OPEC governor suggesting a deal is still likely in Doha helping bolster WTI prices back above USD 35.50/bbl. Elsewhere, gold has been on the march overnight, climbing by over USD 15/oz to trade above USD 1230/oz in a flight to quality amid the USD/JPY softness. The metals complex was also underpinned on the return of Chinese participants which helped copper snap a 7-day losing streak, while iron ore underperformed on increasing supply from its main exporter nations.

Copper for delivery in three months was set to end the longest losing streak in two years, advancing for the first time in eight sessions. The metal was up 0.5 percent at $4,785 a metric ton. Aluminum was little changed, while zinc fell 1.5 percent.

On the US calendar today, we get the February trade balance reading where expectations are for a modest widening in the deficit. We’ll then get confirmation of those PMI numbers before the closely watched ISM non-manufacturing print for March is due to be released (expected to tick up to 54.2 from 53.4 the prior month) where there will be a close watch on the employment component in particular. The IBD/TIPP economic optimism reading for April and February JOLTS job openings data concludes the releases. Away from the data we’re due to hear from the Fed’s Evans shortly after we go to print.



Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • USD/JPY touches its lowest level for 18 months, with EUR/USD & GBP/USD heading into the North American crossover near their lows of the day
  • European equites trade firmly in the red, led lower by materials, financials and energy names
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US JOLTS, ISM Non-Manf and Services & Composite PM's
  • Treasuries higher in overnight trading as global equity markets sell-off and WTI oil drops towards $35/barrel; economic calendar includes trade balance, JOLTS job openings.
  • The yen jumped to a 17-month high and government bonds climbed as increasing concern that global economic growth is faltering stoked demand for haven assets
  • Three months after predicting Goldman Sachs Group Inc. would put the tumultuous end of 2015 behind it and stabilize profits, analysts are reversing course and cutting projections again
  • Panama and the U.S. have at least one thing in common: Neither has agreed to new international standards to make it harder for tax evaders and money launderers to hide their money
  • UBS and HSBC -- two of the banks hardest hit amid a U.S. crackdown on customers’ illicit funds in recent years -- are now starring in a torrent of leaked documents detailing how they once helped clients set up thousands of offshore shell companies
  • China may approve as soon as this month a plan to make it easier for banks to convert soured debt into equity. The government may allow conversions of as much as 1 trillion yuan ($155 billion) of bad loans under the plan
  • France is planning to join the Netherlands in taking steps toward greater transparency in the European Central Bank’s €80 billion-a-month ($91 billion) QE program, according to a person with direct knowledge of the plans
  • Christine Lagarde said the International Monetary Fund will negotiate “in good faith” with the Greek government as she signaled that recent animosity over the latest review of Greece’s aid program will blow over
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mostly lower; European and Asian equity markets drop; U.S. equity-index futures fall. WTI crude oil drops; gold and copper move higher
US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, Feb., est -$46.2b (prior - $45.7b)
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, March F, est. 51.2 (prior 51)
    • Markit US Composite PMI, March F (prior 51.1)
  • 10:00am: ISM Non-Mfg Composite, March, est. 54.2 (prior 53.4)
  • 10:00am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, April, est. 47 (prior 46.8)
  • 10:00am: JOLTS Job Openings, Feb., est. 5.49m (prior 5.541m)
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

So with expectations for an output freeze from Oil producers at the Doha meeting later this month plummeting lower, away from that and the Fed/Data watch, another factor which will likely provide some near term direction for markets is Q1 earnings season in the US which is due to unofficially kick off next week when Alcoa reports on Monday. Our US equity strategists are expecting a difficult quarter for earnings and have a bottom up Q1 EPS growth decline estimate of -8% yoy, with markets exposed to banks and energy stocks in particular expected to perform poorly. Something we’ll be keeping a close eye on in coming weeks.

Switching our attention over to the latest in Asia now where this morning we’re seeing most major bourses (aside from China) follow the lead from Wall Street last night and trade lower. Japanese equity markets in particular have seen the sharpest declines with the Nikkei currently -1.92%. A stronger Yen isn’t helping matters there while the latest numbers from the March Nikkei PMI data showed the composite falling below 50 last month for the first time in a year, tumbling 1.1pts to 49.9. The services data declined 1.2pts to 50.0 which was also the lowest in a year. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng (-1.40%) has also seen a steep fall after reopening from a public holiday yesterday, although bourses in China (Shanghai Comp +0.97%) are reversing course as we type from a softish start. We’re also seeing more Bloomberg headlines of another potential corporate default in Greater China this morning, with China Green Holdings the latest in the limelight after the company advised it has insufficient funds to make its upcoming bond repayment in a week. Elsewhere the Kospi is -0.80% and ASX -1.26%. The Aussie Dollar is a touch firmer after the RBA held rates steady as expected.

Moving on. Yesterday’s batch of economic data in the US was generally a tad weaker than expected. The main focus was on the soft factory orders data for February. Headline orders were said to have declined -1.7% mom as expected however orders excluding transportation were down a heavier than expected -0.8% mom (vs. -0.5% expected). Meanwhile, core capex orders were confirmed as falling -2.5% mom in February which was slightly more than the initial flash reading had alluded to. Headline and core durable goods orders were down -3.0% mom and -1.3% mom having also been revised lower. Elsewhere we saw the labour market conditions index fall -2.1pts in March after expectations had been for a +1.5pts gain. That means the index has now put in its third consecutive monthly decline which is in contrast to the more positive picture that the headline nonfarm payrolls data is painting.

Staying with the US, yesterday we heard from the usually dovish Boston Fed’s Rosengren who became the latest in a long line of regional Fed Presidents to speak with a more optimistic tone. Rosengren noted that in his opinion the current market expectations for one rate increase this year and next ‘could prove too pessimistic’. He highlighted that ‘the US economy is continuing to improve despite the headwinds from abroad’ and that ‘if my forecast is right, it may imply more increases in short-term interest rates than are currently priced into futures markets’ and that ‘it will likely be appropriate to resume the path of gradual tightening sooner’.

There was also some Central Bank speak to note from the ECB too following comments from board member, Praet. In a speech in Rome, Praet made mention to the fact that ‘allowing inflation to re-anchor downwards comes with a high risk of credibility losses for the central bank, and especially when the objective is not being met’. Praet also noted that ‘the need for a superior policy mix is no excuse for central banks to be passive when their mandates are under threat’, before going on to state that ‘the ECB has demonstrated through its actions that it does not wait for others to move first’.

The European data added little to the debate yesterday with the Euro area unemployment rate printing as expected at 10.3% in February, while the latest Sentix investor confidence reading showed a smaller than expected 0.2pt gain this month to 5.7 (vs. 7.0 expected). The Euro chopped around in small range yesterday before ultimately closing flat although we did see further moves lower for Bund yields, with the 10y at one stage trading as low as 0.115% which is only a smidgen away from the 0.101% intraday low this year made back in late February.

Taking a look at the day ahead, we’ve got a slightly busier calendar to look forward to. This morning in Europe the early data is out of Germany where the February factory orders data is due. Shortly following this we will get the final revisions for the services and composite PMI’s in Europe (no change to the Euro area reading expected) as well as a first look for the indicators in Spain, Italy and the UK. Euro area retail sales covering the February month (0.0% mom expected) rounds off the data this morning. Over in the US this afternoon we kickstart with the February trade balance reading where expectations are for a modest widening in the deficit. We’ll then get confirmation of those PMI numbers before the closely watched ISM non-manufacturing print for March is due to be released (expected to tick up to 54.2 from 53.4 the prior month) where there will be a close watch on the employment component in particular. The IBD/TIPP economic optimism reading for April and February JOLTS job openings data concludes the releases. Away from the data we’re due to hear from the Fed’s Evans shortly after we go to print.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...e-yen-surges-17-month-high-bund-yields-plunge
 

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#25

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#29
RANsquawk Preview Video: FOMC March 15th-16th meeting minutes
RAN squawk


Published on Apr 5, 2016
 

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#30
IMF Financial Terror Plot Revealed, Panama Papers & Trump
Fabian4Liberty


Published on Apr 5, 2016
IMF Financial Terror Plot Revealed

Wiki leaks recently published a transcript of a phone by IMF representatives talking about how Greece needed an "event" to come to more decisive measures to handle their ongoing debt problems.

Is the IMF plotting economic terror ahead of the brexit vote as well as pumping up markets in the U.S. to help Hilary Clinton get elected?
 

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#31
First victim of the Panama Papers: Iceland's prime minister QUITS two days after it emerged his family had hidden millions through tax haven – while his country's financial system collapsed
  • PM Sigmunder David Gunlaugsson had made a request for a snap election
  • But his President says he wants to consult with other party leaders first
  • Came after thousands protested outside Parliament calling for PM to resign
  • Opposition also presented motion of no-confidence against Gunnlaugsson


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3524568/Iceland-PM-calls-dissolution-parliament-tax-scandal.html#ixzz44z5jGjg2
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
 

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#33
Fort Knox Paradox
By: Gary Christenson
Question: If the Bullion Depository still contains over 147 million ounces of gold, why not audit it, prove the existence of the gold, and eliminate speculation? The US government spends over $70 billion on “food stamps” every year and nearly a $Trillion per year on “defense,” so cost is not the issue.


Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain Over 1% While Stocks Drop
By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com
Gold gained $21.72 to $1236.62 by a little after 8:30AM EST before it chopped back lower at times, but it still ended with a gain of 1.26%. Silver climbed to as high as $15.209 and ended with a gain of 1.41%.
 

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#34
‘Never give up hope’? Ukrainian govt promises new reforms as inflation hits record 45%
RT


Published on Apr 6, 2016
Ukraine's economy is in dire straits - people are poor and the social situation has deteriorated. With yearly inflation hitting a record 45%, Ukraine is the only European country to get aid from the World Food Programme.
 

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#35
This is one guy's opinion. Take it fwiw and dyodd.

James Rickards-Gold $10,000 to $50,000 per Ounce
Greg Hunter


Published on Apr 5, 2016
Financial Expert James Rickards says, “The Fed wants inflation . . . . They are not getting it, but they have to have it. What does that mean for policy? That means they are not going to give up . . . . They are going to keep trying until they get inflation, and when that happens, you are going to wish you had your gold.”

How much will gold be in the future? Richards calculates, “$10,000 per ounce with 40% backing . . . if you had 100% backing (of the dollar), that number would be $50,000 per ounce. The implied non-deflationary price of gold, depending on your assumptions, is between $10,000 and $50,000 per ounce. If you are going to have a gold standard and you want to avoid the blunder of the 1920’s, you are going to have gold at least at $10,000 per ounce and possibly much higher. I explain all this in my book.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with James Richards, the best-selling author of the brand new book called “The New Case for Gold.”

All links can be on USAWatchdog.com: http://usawatchdog.com/biggest-collap...

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#36
Frontrunning: April 6


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/06/2016 07:30 -0400


  • Cruz, Sanders score decisive victories in Wisconsin (Reuters)
  • Clinton Can’t Get to New York Fast Enough After New Sanders Win (BBG)
  • Trump, Clinton Have Single-Digit Leads in Pennsylvania (BBG)
  • Panama law firm says data hack was external, files complaint (Reuters)
  • ‘Panama Papers’ Puts Spotlight on Boom in Offshore Services (WSJ)
  • Barclays partners with Goldman-backed bitcoin payments app (FT)
  • China Inc. Scraps $7 Billion of Bond Offerings as Defaults Rise (BBG)
  • Activists Reap Olive Garden Bounty (WSJ)
  • Russia sees oil price of $45-$50 per barrel 'acceptable' as it prepares for freeze deal (Reuters)
  • Deposition ordered for woman in debunked Rolling Stone rape article (Reuters)
  • Some Asking If Disney CEO Will Extend Tenure (WSJ)
  • NYU Graduates Seeking $11 Billion of Gold in Ransacked Mine (BBG)
  • Oil glut up close: How Cushing copes with full crude tanks (Reuters)
  • PayPal pulls North Carolina plan after transgender bathroom law (Reuters)
  • Currency Traders Brace for Wild Ride as Volatility Curves Invert (BBG)
  • Zika mystery deepens with evidence of nerve cell infections (Reuters)
  • Rising U.S. inflation would take a bite out of the dollar (Reuters)


Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

- Pfizer Inc has decided to kill its planned $150 billion takeover of Allergan PLC, after the Obama administration took aim at a deal that would have moved the biggest drug company in the U.S. to Ireland to lower its taxes, according to people familiar with the matter. (http://on.wsj.com/1N7RRA3)

- Iceland Prime Minister Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson yielded his post Tuesday, becoming the first major casualty of renewed global scrutiny into offshore accounts sparked by millions of documents allegedly leaked from a Panamanian law firm. (http://on.wsj.com/1N7RVzF)

- Bank of America Corp named Andrei Magasiner new treasurer on Tuesday. Magasiner replaces Greg Hackworth who had been the treasurer since 2013. (http://on.wsj.com/23a5H1t)

- Twitter Inc obtained the rights to stream 10 of the National Football League's Thursday night games, a bid to move from the periphery to the center of live events by leveraging the most popular U.S. sport. (http://on.wsj.com/1N7SeKP)

- Johnson & Johnson is deepening its business in Africa, adding new research, development and distribution capabilities to boost sales of new medicines to fight HIV/AIDS and other major killer diseases. (http://on.wsj.com/23a6rnk)



FT

Iceland's prime minister stepped down on Tuesday, becoming the first casualty in the Panama papers tax scandal. (http://on.ft.com/1TAykPc)

The U.S. Justice Department is planning to sue to stop the Halliburton Co and Baker Hughes merger. (http://on.ft.com/1TAyw0Z)

WhatsApp said it has bolstered encryption protections that will prevent law enforcement agencies from obtaining access to its users. (http://on.ft.com/1TABeDL)

Glencore is close to selling a stake in its agricultural business to Canada's pension fund, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. (http://on.ft.com/1TABCBX)



NYT

- Pfizer Inc plans to abandon its $152-billion merger with Allergan Plc, the largest deal yet aimed at helping an American company shed its United States corporate citizenship for a lower tax bill. This comes just days after the Obama administration introduced new tax rules, a person briefed on the matter said late Tuesday. (http://nyti.ms/239ZEtE)

- Puerto Rico took steps on Tuesday toward a unilateral moratorium on all government debt payments, rejecting efforts in Washington to allow it to restructure only under close federal supervision. Puerto Rico took steps on Tuesday toward a unilateral moratorium on all government debt payments, rejecting efforts in Washington to allow it to restructure only under close federal supervision. (http://nyti.ms/23fuSMz)

- The leak of millions of private financial documents linking scores of the world's rich and powerful to a secretive Panamanian law firm peddling in shell companies and offshore bank accounts began more than a year ago with a cryptic message to a German newspaper from an anonymous whistleblower. (http://nyti.ms/1S9Whrj)

- On Tuesday, the FBI's top lawyer shed a bit more light on the question regarding what secrets did the iPhone used by San Bernardino shooter hold, a week after the Justice Department announced that it had gotten into the phone without Apple Inc's help. (http://nyti.ms/1VvuKGd)



Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** The federal agency responsible for monitoring money laundering across the country said that it has fined a Canadian bank more than C$1.1 million for failing to report a suspicious transaction, a hefty penalty that is designed to send a message of deterrence in the financial sector. (http://bit.ly/1RXzCSa)

** Canadians will be shut out from a landmark deal that the National Football League has struck to live-stream Thursday night games for free online through Twitter during the coming season. (http://bit.ly/25KCZmz)

** The privatization of Hydro One will most likely be completed before Premier Kathleen Wynne's Liberals face re-election in 2018, the man in charge of the sell-off said. (http://bit.ly/1UI0fhe)

** Hudson's Bay Co is racing to add robots to its Toronto distribution centre that handles e-commerce orders, betting that the investment will give it an edge in the retail digital wars. (http://bit.ly/1TBzk5E)

NATIONAL POST

** Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc stock saw a double-digit surge after the company's ad-hoc committee announced it had not identified any additional items that need restating following its review of the controversial Philidor specialty pharmacy. (http://bit.ly/1MR2oVr)

** An arbitration tribunal has ordered the Venezuelan government to pay $1.386 billion to Canadian miner Crystallex International Corp, saying the state caused all of Crystallex's investments "to become worthless". (http://bit.ly/1SPiEFs)



Britain

The Times

Tough new U.S. Treasury rules on corporate tax inversions that could scupper Pfizer's record $150 billion takeover of Allergan wiped nearly 17 per cent off the Botox maker's shares yesterday.(http://bit.ly/1RD4MiM)

Cerberus Capital Management confirmed it is on course to sell more than 6 billion pound of loans once owned by Northern Rock mortgages. (http://bit.ly/22aNawf)

The Guardian

Profits in investment banking arm will not be as high as last year, Barclays said, as it asked shareholders for permission to sell off its African operations. (http://bit.ly/1RMuLAK)

Stock markets across Europe have fallen following weaker than expected economic indicators, falling oil prices, and a warning from the International Monetary Fund stoked fears of a slowing global recovery.(http://bit.ly/22aIrdX)

The Telegraph

Prince Andrew from the Royal family has stepped into the crisis engulfing Britain's steel industry which has thrown into doubt the future of 40,000 UK jobs. (http://bit.ly/1S8ouyz)

Five former Barclays bankers rigged key interest rate benchmark Libor "for their own advantage" in a conspiracy "driven by money", a court has heard. (http://bit.ly/238tHC1)

Sky News

HSBC is to reinforce its commitment to the strategy it outlined last year by signing a deal to sponsor a high-speed rail-link between two cities in the Pearl River Delta, one of China's most important economic regions. (http://bit.ly/1MQEp8H)

The trade body, Investment Association, which represents fund managers overseeing 5.5 trillion pound in assets is to name Chris Cummings as its next chief executive as the industry undergoes unprecedented regulatory reform. (http://bit.ly/1RWR6xV)

The Independent

PayPal will not move forward with planned expansion in Charlotte, North Carolina following the passage of a widely condemned anti-LGBT law. (http://ind.pn/1VuDIDH)

The head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, has put Britain voting to leave the EU in June's referendum among what she says are immediate threats to the global economy. (http://ind.pn/1RVMsQH)


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-06/frontrunning-april-6
 

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#37
Stocks Rebound In Calm Trading On Back Of Stronger Crude, Dollar


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/06/2016 06:48 -0400


Unlike yesterday's overnight session, which saw some substantial carry FX volatility and tumbling European yields in the aftermath of the TSY's anti-inversion decree, leading to a return of fears that the next leg down in markets is upon us, the overnight session has been far calmer, assisted in no small part by the latest China Caixin Services PMI, which rose from 51.2 to 52.2 (even if the employment index dropped to a three year low, suggesting China's labor problems are only just starting).

Adding to the overnight rebound was crude, which saw a big bounce following yesterday's API inventory data, according to which crude had its biggest inventory draw in 2016, resulting in WTI rising as high as $37.15 overnight. The oil market is now looking at today’s more definitive EIA report, which is also expected to show an inventory build. "The API surprised the market at a time when it was looking to move higher after several days of losses; the API provided this trigger," says Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen. "Kuwait saying a deal is still a possibility at the Doha meeting has also helped."

Curiously, the rebound in oil took place even as the BBG Dollar index saw a sharp increase overnight.





But while the dollar rose, the Yen failed to drop, and as a result, the USDJPY has remained just barely above 110, leading to another session in the red for Japan's Nikkei: surely by now Abe and Kuroda must be asking themselves if complying with the Shanghai Accord was really worth it. A few more percent drop, which wipes out a few dozen trillion in local pensions, and the Japanese people may ask themselves too.

“It is still difficult to buy stocks because of the yen. There are hardly any positive factors for stocks,” Chihiro Ohta, general manager of investment information at SMBC Nikko, told Bloomberg. “Investors are concerned about the global economy again and are turning to risk-off as the IMF may downgrade its growth forecasts."

Meanwhile in China, good news was bad, as the better than expected Services PMI led to a 0.1% drop in the Composite after the benchmark index hit a three-month high on Tuesday. Data released on Wednesday by Caixin Media and Markit Economics showed their services purchasing managers’ index increased to 52.2 in March. An official factory gauge last week showed improving conditions for the first time in eight months, while industrial profits halted a seven-month losing streak.

E-mini futures on the S&P 500 Index rose 0.3 percent. The underlying U.S. equity benchmark index slipped 1 percent on Tuesday. The rally that lifted the S&P 500 as much as 13 percent from a 22-month low in February has started to lose momentum, with sentiment shifting as investors assess whether central banks can fend off weakness in the global economy. The U.S. central bank releases the minutes from its latest meeting on Wednesday.

E-mini futures on the S&P 500 Index rose 0.3 percent. The underlying U.S. equity benchmark index slipped 1 percent on Tuesday. The rally that lifted the S&P 500 as much as 13 percent from a 22-month low in February has started to lose momentum, with sentiment shifting as investors assess whether central banks can fend off weakness in the global economy. The U.S. central bank releases the minutes from its latest meeting on Wednesday.



This is where all key markets stood as of this moment.

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2042
  • Stoxx 600 up 0.4% to 329
  • FTSE 100 up 0.5% to 6122
  • DAX down less than 0.1% to 9563
  • German 10Yr yield up 3bps to 0.13%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.27%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.5%
  • S&P GSCI Index up 0.9% to 313.2
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down less than 0.1% to 124
  • Nikkei 225 down 0.1% to 15715
  • Hang Seng up 0.1% to 20207
  • Shanghai Composite down less than 0.1% to 3051
  • S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 4946
  • US 10-yr yield up 3bps to 1.75%
  • Dollar Index up 0.25% to 94.87
  • WTI Crude futures up 2.8% to $36.88
  • Brent Futures up 2% to $38.64
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,226
  • Silver spot down 0.1% to $15.12
Top Global News

  • Pfizer Said to Terminate $160 Billion Merger With Allergan: Pfizer decided to terminate largest-ever health-care acquisition as officials in Washington crack down on corporate inversions, according to a person familiar with the matter; Bankers Risk Losing Millions If Pfizer-Allergan Deal Falls Apart; Shire May Become Target If Pfizer-Allergan Deal Blows Up: BofAML; Shire/Baxalta Deal Risk Increased on U.S. Inversion Rules: HSBC
  • Glencore Sells $2.5b Agriculture Stake to Canadian Fund: Canada’s largest pension fund to acquire 40% in unit; Glencore selling assets to help curb $25.9b of debt
  • Cruz, Sanders Win Wisconsin Vote in Setback to Front- Runners: Trump’s loss makes delegate math for nomination more difficult; Clinton had downplayed contest as not affecting delegate math
  • Mitel Networks, Polycom Said to Be in Advanced Merger Talks: agreement is said to be possible as soon as next week; deal would value Polycom at about $1.7b
  • Staples Merger Hearing Ends With Skeptical Judge Urging Accord: office supply retailers ask judge to reject FTC injunction bid; government seeks to block merger, citing loss of competition
  • Puerto Rico’s House Approves Moratorium on Bond Payments: general obligations, Cofina debt would stop paying investors; measure would give governor authority to suspend payments
    Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square holds 1Q investor call; follow TOPLive for our blog coverage starting 10am
  • Pfizer Wins Dismissal in Zoloft Birth-Defect Warning Cases: a federal judge in Philadelphia granted co.’s request to dismiss more than 300 lawsuits attempting to link the antidepressant Zoloft to heart defects in newborns
Looking at regional markets, we start as usual in Asia, where equities shrugged off the negative lead from Wall St. with the region mostly positive as an improvement in Chinese PMI data provided some reprieve. Nikkei 225 (-0.1%) saw choppy price action driven by JPY movements, with the index extending on its recent losing streak. ASX 200 (+0.4%) was underpinned by gains in energy following an unexpected drawdown in API Inventories, which pushed WTI crude futures towards the USD 37/bbl level. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp (-0.1%) recovered off its worst levels following an improvement in Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMI's with the latter returning to expansionary territory and matching a 1-year high. Finally, 10 year JGBs were flat amid similar range-bound trade in riskier Japanese asset classes, while the result of the BoJ's JPY 1.24tr1 buying operation also provided no surprises.

Asian top news:

  • China Forex Losses Jump 13-Fold as Investors Brace for More: Air China, Agile Property to cut exposure to dollar debt
  • Yen at Strongest in 17 Months Probing Limit of Japan’s Tolerance: More jawboning would be “meaningless,” JPMorgan’s Sasaki says
  • Chinese Online Property Site Said Raising $1b in Funding: Beijing Homelink plans to expand its reach across China; Tencent, Baidu said to take part in Homelink fundraising
  • Rajan Supercharges India Rate Cut by Easing Bank Funding Squeeze: Central bank lowers benchmark, takes measures to boost cash
  • Samsung Rewrites Playbook to Juice S7 Sales Before IPhone: Estimates of S7 sales raised to 9m units from 7m
  • Amid 1MDB Probes, BSI Suffers Exits and Wrangling Over Liability: Departing Asia staff said to include trio vetting big clients
European equities trade mostly higher with the move to the upside propelled by energy names after WTI crude futures reclaimed USD 37.00/bbl to the upside. Bucking the trend however, is the DAX which trades relatively flat given the lack of energy names in the index, with newsflow otherwise relatively light from a European perspective. Alongside the modest upside in European stocks, fixed income markets have ebbed lower with Bunds breaking back below 164.00 to the downside. Furthermore, prices have also edged lower in tandem with USTs as market participants continued to keep a close eye on the price action of USD/JPY where the BoJ is yet to stem the recent sell-off.

European top news:

  • H&M Sees Dollar Sourcing Headwinds Easing by End of Year: headwinds from strong dollar will ease by end of year as co. reported 1Q profit that slightly beat analysts’ estimates
  • Panama Secrecy Leak Claims First Casualty as Iceland PM Quits: decision follows protests that drew thousands of Icelanders
  • Air France-KLM Shares Fall as De Juniac Steps Down: shares decline after surprise departure of CEO, who’s stepping down to take IATA job
  • BTG Pactual, Generali at Odds on Indemnity Linked to 1MDB Case: cos. in disagreement over which firm should bear potential losses tied to Swiss bank BSI’s dealings with a Malaysian fund
In FX, in the absence of any data or news, it is no surprise to see FX markets in range bound mode today. Commodities have seen a small recovery, while equities stabilise, but this has failed to spark any significant moves in the majors. The FOMC minutes this evening is the perfect excuse to stand pat on for now, and in that respect, USD/JPY is holding off any notable recovery, despite having held the key 110.00 level in Asia. More warnings from Japanese government spokesmen that markets are being monitored, but to little effect. Some signs that the market is primed for fresh GBP weakness, but EUR/GBP continues to hold off the top end of the .8030-65 resistance zone, with Cable defensive against the key support area at 1.4050-55. EUR/USD naturally tight in the mid 1.1300's, with the broader USD perspective key here today, but also likely to hold off committing to any major direction ahead of the ECB meeting account Thursday. DoE report later today could see a little Cad shakeout — API last night saw an unexpected drawdown.

In commodities, oil prices have extended on yesterday's advances following an unexpected drawdown in API Inventories which lifted WTI crude futures above the USD 37/bbl level with prices shrugging off upside seen in the USD-index this morning. Gold (-0.2%) trades modestly lower alongside broad strength in the USD with newsflow otherwise relatively light thus far. Elsewhere, copper prices benefited from the improvement in risk-sentiment while iron-ore remained pressured on rising stockpiles as Chinese port inventories are at its highest level in a year.

There’s no data out of the US expected but the main focus will of course be on the release of the March FOMC minutes which we’ll get at 2.00pm. Yellen’s dovish comments last week mean the minutes perhaps take on slightly less importance than usual, particularly with the Fed Chair due to speak tomorrow, but it’s still worth keeping a close eye on any interesting snippets. Away from this the Fed’s Mester is due to speak along with Bullard later on.

Bulletin Headline Summary from Ransquawk and Bloomberg

  • European equities trade modestly higher as upside in energy prices supported sentiment with newsflow otherwise relatively light
  • FX markets have been largely rangebound with USD/JPY holding off any notable recovery, despite having held the key 110.00 level in Asia
  • Looking ahead, today sees the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes and potential comments from Fed's Mester (Voter, Soft Hawk) and Bullard (Voter, Neutral)
  • Treasuries drop in overnight trading as global equity markets mostly higher along with crude oil after Kuwait claims producers can reach an agreement to arrest output even if Iran doesn’t join in.
  • Global regulators are considering how to raise capital requirements for the world’s biggest banks as they implement tougher debt-financing limits designed to rein in too-big-to fail lenders
  • Germany is on a collision course with the European Commission over enforcing bank-failure rules the EU introduced two years ago to end an era of taxpayer bailouts. The finance ministry in Berlin is warning against “watering down” the rules
  • Negative rates have become counter-productive, since they have produced uncertainty by signaling that something is wrong with the economy. Moreover, the Riksbank’s unprecedented government bond buying program has also sparked liquidity concerns
  • Puerto Rico’s Government Development Bank is on the verge of a collapse as the lender in recent years saw politicians turn it into a piggy-bank that lent to the government and its agencies
  • Puerto Rico’s House of Representatives approved a bill calling for a moratorium. The measure would give Governor Padilla authority to suspend payments on debt backed by the government
  • A funny thing has happened in the U.S. stock market, where rather than loosen their grip bears have grown ever-more impassioned. They’ve sent short interest to an eight-year high and above $1 trillion
  • When the next corporate default wave comes losses on bonds from defaulted companies are likely to be higher than in previous cycles because U.S. issuers have more debt relative to their assets
  • The Chinese central bank’s appetite for trade-weighted weakness in the yuan appears to be increasing, according to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., spurring warnings of increasing risks to emerging-market currencies
  • India’s central bank governor renewed his criticism of unorthodox monetary policy. “I don’t think this is a stable situation,” Governor Rajan said. “Either we need stronger growth or we need to recognize we’ve reached the limits of monetary policy”
  • Pfizer Inc. decided to terminate its $160 billion merger with Allergan Plc, a person familiar with the matter said, marking an end to the largest-ever health-care acquisition as officials in Washington crack down on corporate inversions
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mostly higher; European and Asian equity markets rise; U.S. equity-index futures rise. WTI crude oil rallies; gold and copper drop
US Event Calendara

7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, April 1 (prior -1%)

Central Banks

  • 12:20pm: Fed’s Mester speaks in Cleveland
  • 2:00pm: Fed Releases Minutes from March 15-16 FOMC Meeting
  • 6:30pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks in St. Louis
  • 8:00pm: Fed’s Kaplan speaks in Dallas
  • 8:30pm: Bank of Japan’s Kuroda speaks
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Notwithstanding the current weaker sentiment we'd conclude that a softer dollar is probably better for reducing global systemic risk (not least as it helps China), even it causes headaches for the likes of Europe and Japan. Much attention was yesterday focused on the fact that the Yen briefly strengthened below $110 for the first time since October 2014 and also that the Nikkei is now down -16.7% YTD. The chatter is increasingly that this is a strong signal Japanese policy isn't currently working in spite of seemingly aggressive action. Recent economic data out of Japan has been soft (Tankan and PMI’s in particular) and the question everyone is starting to ask is what the policy response from the BoJ may be. Further equity purchases have been mentioned while yesterday the former BoJ Governor Iwata suggested that the Central bank will hit its limit of government bond purchases in 2017 and suggested that further deeper negative rates would be more likely instead. The next BoJ meeting is the 28th of April and away from that another key decision is on the fiscal side and whether PM Abe will delay the upcoming hike in the consumption tax, a decision he has sounded ambivalent on so far.

Meanwhile the Stoxx 600, the DAX and European banks are now down -9.5%, -11.0% and -23.7% respectively YTD so there is a fear that Japan and Europe are becoming more resistant to central bank policies. Before getting too concerned, despite a -1.01% fall yesterday we should remember that the S&P 500 is +0.7% YTD and was at YTD highs only 2 days ago. So a softer dollar helps the US, leads to lower systemic risk but causes growth and asset return problems elsewhere.

Indeed the moves yesterday underscored what was a pretty rough day all round for risk assets with some soft European data, downbeat comments the IMF’s Lagarde and concerns emanating from the new US Treasury Department rules on corporate inversions. European DM bond markets were the biggest winners in the risk-off move with evidence no more obvious than the move across the Bund curve where 10y Bunds closed yesterday at 0.098% and the lowest in nearly 12 months. That all-time intraday low of 4.8bps this time last year is creeping closer.

Before we deep diver on some of the above, this morning in Asia we’re seeing a bit more of mixed performance relative to that of the past 24 hours. The Nikkei (+0.04%), Hang Seng (+0.35%), Kospi (+0.56%) and ASX (+0.37%) are all up modestly with just China currently unchanged. That’s despite some improvement in the March Caixin PMI’s for China where the services number has increased 1pt to 52.2, helping to take the composite up to 51.3 from 49.4 in February and to the highest level since April last year.

Meanwhile the other breaking news this morning is that, according to the WSJ, Pfizer has announced that it intends to walk away from the proposed $150bn mega-merger with Allergan. This comes after the news out of the Treasury yesterday regarding the proposed inversion rules. The overall feeling was that the new rules were stricter than previously assumed. Specifically the rules focus on two main parts, the first focusing on a three-year lookback period in calculating the size of the inversion and disregarding assets acquired in the previous 36 months, while the second action would be to limit earnings stripping. Those changes had investors concerned about the putting the aforementioned merger in jeopardy which appears to now to be confirmed. US equity index futures are modestly firmer this morning.
Back to yesterday and firstly those comments from Lagarde in the morning. The IMF Chief warned that global growth remains too slow, too fragile and risks to its durability are increasing. She also noted that downside risks have increased and that the Fund does not ‘see much by the way of upside’. Lagarde also made mention to threats of a geopolitical nature as also underlining the uncertainty globally at the moment. Specifically she referred to the uncertainty concerning Brexit which was something also mentioned by the Fed’s Evans too who highlighted this and also the US Presidential election race as complicating decisions for policymakers. While both events still have a way to run, the various headlines linking PM David Cameron with the Panama Papers have the potential to have an indirect bearing on the

Brexit debate, particularly from a credibility perspective.
Meanwhile, yesterday’s economic data in Europe saw some disappointment in the final March PMI revisions. The Euro area composite reading was revised down 0.6pts to 53.1 after the services number fell to its softest since January 2015, down 0.9pts from the flash reading to 53.1. Much of the weaker read-through in the services number was attributed to a big downward revision for France (-1.3pts to 49.9) and a 2.6pt monthly decline in Italy. Our European economists noted that the Euro area composite PMI points to GDP growth of around 0.4% qoq in Q1 which is in line with their projection. Also of note was a much softer than expected February factory orders print out of Germany where orders were unexpectedly down -1.2% mom in the month (vs. +0.3% expected).

The US data was a little bit more mixed. Notably and for the first time since September, we saw the ISM non-manufacturing reading strengthen after rising 1.1pts last month to a slightly higher than expected 54.5 (vs. 54.2 expected). The details also showed encouraging gains for the employment and new orders components and it means the spread between the two ISM series is now 2.7pts which is the least since December 2014 (albeit the overwhelming contributor to that being a move lower in the services component). In any case yesterday’s data was also backed up by a slight upward revision in the final March services PMI to 51.3 (from 51.0). Away from that the February trade balance reading revealed a slightly wider than expected deficit in the month ($47.1bn from $45.9bn), while the IBD/TIPP economic optimism reading for April was down 0.5pts from March to 46.3 (vs. 47.0 expected). Finally the February JOLTS job openings showed openings fell to 5.45m in the month from an upwardly revised 5.60m in the month prior. Also of note was the news that the Atlanta Fed had revised down their Q1 GDP growth forecast by three-tenths to 0.4% although this appeared to be more of a reflection of that softer US auto sales data from Friday.

Back to bonds, along with those moves for Bunds, we also saw similar moves lower in yield for the bulk of DM sovereign bond markets in Europe, while 10y Treasury yields closed over 4bps lower at 1.721% and the lowest since the end of February. Peripheral assets were the notable underperformer (Italy 10y +3bps, Portugal 10y +21bps) with Greece back in focus. The latest news there being that German Chancellor Merkel has reinforced her position that the IMF should remain a part of the Greek bailout program and that a debt haircut for Greece is not possible. These headlines are all starting to feel a bit 2015 again.

Credit markets were not immune to be the risk off move yesterday and it was European indices in particular which were under most pressure. The iTraxx Main and Crossover indices finished 4bps and 14bps wider respectively with senior and subs fins underperforming and closing 5bps and 17bps wider respectively.

Bucking the weaker trend for risk yesterday were the moves into the close for Oil. In fact, after trading lower for the bulk of the day and contributing to part of the selloff certainly in Europe, WTI has rallied back close to $37/bbl this morning after hovering in the low $35’s yesterday. As well as some supportive output numbers, again the move has come about on the back of more headlines concerning the upcoming Doha meeting, this time out of Kuwait where the OPEC Governor there suggested that a production freeze pact is still possible between producers even without the agreement from Iran.

Looking at the day ahead, the calendar is a lot lighter this morning with the only data of note out of Germany where the February industrial production data is due (-1.8% mom expected). There’s no data out of the US expected but the main focus will of course be on the release of the March FOMC minutes which we’ll get at 7.00pm BST. Yellen’s dovish comments last week mean the minutes perhaps take on slightly less importance than usual, particularly with the Fed Chair due to speak tomorrow, but it’s still worth keeping a close eye on any interesting snippets. Away from this the Fed’s Mester (5.20pm BST) is due to speak along with Bullard (11.30pm BST) later on.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-06/stocks-rebound-calm-trading-back-stronger-crude-dollar
 

searcher

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#38
Rothschild Humiliates Obama, Reveals That "America Is The Biggest Tax Haven In The World"


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/06/2016 07:45 -0400

In his speech yesterday, following the Treasury's crack down on corporate tax inversions, Obama blamed "poorly designed" laws for allowing illicit money transfers worldwide. Since the speech came at a time when the entire world is still abuzz with the disclosure from the Panama Papers, Obama touched on that as well: "Tax avoidance is a big, global problem" he said on Tuesday, "a lot of it is legal, but that’s exactly the problem" because a lot of it is also illegal.

There is one major problem with that: of all the countries in the world, it is none other than the country of which Obama is president, the United States, that has become the world's favorite offshore "tax haven" destination.

As Bloomberg, which first broke the story about Nevada's use as a prominent tax haven early this year, writes, "Panama and the U.S. have at least one thing in common: Neither has agreed to new international standards to make it harder for tax evaders and money launderers to hide their money."



Over the past several years, amid increased scrutiny by journalists, regulators and law enforcers, the global tax-haven landscape has shifted. In an effort to catch tax dodgers, almost 100 countries and other jurisdictions have agreed since 2014 to impose new disclosure requirements for bank accounts, trusts and some other investments held by international customers -- standards issued by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a government-funded international policy group.

In short: while Obama is complaining about corporate tax avoidance and slamming Panama, he is encouraging it in the U.S.



Places like Switzerland and Bermuda are agreeing, at least in principle, to share bank account information with tax authorities in other countries. Only a handful of nations have declined to sign on. The most prominent is the U.S. The other ona is, of course, Panama, and we just saw what happened there.



The latest reporting "underscores the secrecy in Panama," said Stefanie Ostfeld, the acting head of the U.S. office of the anti-corruption group Global Witness. "What’s lesser known, is the U.S. is just as big a secrecy jurisdiction as so many of these Caribbean countries and Panama. We should not want to be the playground for the world’s dirty money, which is what we are right now."

For Obama, however, it is important to not let facts get in the way of a good speech, or welcoming the dirty, laundered money of the world's uber wealthy, be they criminals or not, as they transfer their wealth from Panama to Nevada, Wyoming and other tax sheltering destinations in the U.S.

To be sure, the US has taken steps to keep track of US assets abroad, but not of foreign assets in the US.



In 2010, Congress passed the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, or Fatca, as the U.S. Justice Department began prosecuting Swiss banks for enabling tax evasion. Fatca forces certain financial firms to disclose to the Internal Revenue Service any foreign accounts held by U.S. citizens.



Fatca doesn’t, however, bind banks to provide information on foreigners with U.S. accounts to regulators abroad. The U.S. has entered into agreements with some other countries requiring such exchange with foreign regulators, but tax planners say they are considered relatively easy to avoid.



That’s where the OECD came in, with its own international take on Fatca that the U.S. declined to sign.

Panama has been one country which has done everything in its power to delay and dilute its compliance with OECD regulations.



In a January interview, an official at Trident Trust Co., a big provider of offshore vehicles, said it was seeing a large number of accounts moving into Panama because of its weak commitment to the OECD regulations. "The Panama office was extremely overworked, because a lot of people are re-domiciling to Panama from BVI and Cayman," said Alice Rokahr, a Trident official based in South Dakota. In late February, OECD officials said publicly that Panama had been "removed from the list of committed jurisdictions" that agreed to share information.



The latest coverage of shell companies created by a Panamanian law firm could give the OECD new ammunition to put pressure on the country to sign onto the information-sharing agreements, some tax experts said.

But while one can criticize Panama, and with cause, for enabling tax evasion, at least its leaders don't pretend to be saints, who do precisely what they condemn. Far less can be said about Obama.



"The U.S. doesn’t follow a lot of the international standards, and because of its political power, it’s able to continue," said Bruce Zagaris an attorney at Berliner Corcoran & Rowe LLP who specializes in international tax and money laundering regulations. "It’s basically the only country that can continue to do that. Others like Panama have tried, but Panama can’t punch as high as the U.S."

And confirming just that, in a statement issued Monday by OECD secretary general Angel Gurria, the OECD said "Panama is the last major holdout that continues to allow funds to be hidden offshore from tax and law-enforcement authorities."

The statement didn’t mention the U.S., which is the OECD’s largest funder.

And there it is: the US, simply because it is the biggest - and wealthiest - bully in the yard, can dispense morality all day long, but just don't ask it to practice what it preaches.

Meanwhile, advisers around the world are increasingly using the U.S. resistance to the OECD’s standards as a marketing tool - attracting overseas money to U.S. state-level tax and secrecy havens like Nevada and South Dakota, potentially keeping it hidden from their home governments.

Advisors such as Rothschild, profiled initially by Bloomberg's Jesse Drucker.



Rothschild, the centuries-old European financial institution, has opened a trust company in Reno, Nev., a few blocks from the Harrah’s and Eldorado casinos. It is now moving the fortunes of wealthy foreign clients out of offshore havens such as Bermuda, subject to the new international disclosure requirements, and into Rothschild-run trusts in Nevada, which are exempt.

* * *

For financial advisers, the current state of play is simply a good business opportunity. In a draft of his San Francisco presentation, Rothschild’s Penney wrote that the U.S. "is effectively the biggest tax haven in the world." The U.S., he added in language later excised from his prepared remarks, lacks “the resources to enforce foreign tax laws and has little appetite to do so.”

And that is all you need to know.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...ggest-tax-haven-world-obama-slams-tax-evasion
 

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#40
Asian Metals Market Update
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
I do not expect the bank of Japan to intervene to prevent sharp gains of the yen. Gold would have crashed but for gains in the Yen. A stronger Yen always increases gold investment demand from Japanese hedge funds. Gold managing to trade over $1200 is a positive sign. The next three days are very crucial for gold and silver.