• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

R.T.M. ~ Frontrunning ~ 6th Ed., Vol.2 ~ Feb 8th - 12th

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#2
Gregory Mannarino-Economic Data Shows Obama Peddling Fiction
Greg Hunter


Published on Feb 7, 2016
financial analyst Gregory Mannarino says, “This is going to make the 2008 event look like child’s play. We are going to drop lower than we did before. The Federal Reserve is out of ammo. The Fed can go negative interest rate. Maybe it will put a temporary bottom in this market, but it’s going to hurt the people. There is no doubt about it, the economy of the world is slowing. The U.S. economy is slowing. You can look at metric after metric, Baltic Dry Index, GDP numbers just missed the mark and manufacturing numbers also missed the mark. You can just go on and on and on. I don’t know what kind of proof people need to say Obama is peddling fiction. We are slowing down, and people are going to get hurt here, and I mean hurt badly. It will be way worse than the last meltdown, and this event will not bounce back like it did last time.”

In closing, Mannarino warns, “Bond yields are screaming, and the bond market is warning every single one of us that something is very ugly, and it’s right around the corner. Everybody is going into bonds because it’s the safety play, but the debt is worthless, and at some point, even the bond market is going to price to fair market value. It’s a situation of extreme danger across every single asset class.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Gregory Mannarino of TradersChoice.net.

All links can be found on USAWatchdog.com: http://usawatchdog.com/dow-6000-extre...
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#3
Repairing The Water Cycle | Sandra Postel
FinanceAndLiberty.com


Published on Feb 7, 2016
"Water, water, every where, And all the boards did shrink; Water, water, every where, Nor any drop to drink. The very deep did rot - Oh Christ! That ever this should be."

~ Samuel Taylor Coleridge

El Niño has been dropping much-needed rain this winter on a parched American West. But it's making little difference to the greater water scarcity issues the US as well as the rest of the world is increasingly facing.

Here to talk about the state of the world situation for fresh water -- arguably the single most important resource to humans on the planet, next to oxygen -- is Sandra Postel, Director of the Global Water Policy Project, author, lecturer, and former National Geographic Fellow. The punch-line to her message: as more and more demands are placed on our finite freshwater supply by human consumption and climate change, intelligent conservation is now an absolute must.

This video was posted with permission from http://PeakProsperity.com

FINANCE AND LIBERTY:
SUBSCRIBE (It's FREE!) for more ►http://bit.ly/Subscription-Link
Website ►http://FinanceAndLiberty.com
Like us on Facebook ►http://fb.com/FinanceAndLiberty
Follow us on Twitter ►http://twitter.com/Finance_Liberty
Google Plus ►http://Gplus.to/FinanceLiberty
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#4
Weekly Forex Review - 8th to the 12th of February
Forex Reviews


Published on Feb 6, 2016

Pairs and Markets Analysed this Week: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD ( 4 Hour ), NZDUSD ( 4 Hour ), USDJPY, USDCHF, Silver, Gold, AUDCAD, GBPAUD, AUDNZD, EURGBP ( weekly ) and CHFJPY.

Thanks for watching and Happy Trading, if you watched this bio do not forget to comment, like and subscribe. Also comment "Happy Trading" below to let me know you read the bio as well.

I appreciate you all.
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#5
Frontrunning: February 8


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/08/2016 07:25 -0500

  • European stocks plunge as Lunar New Year offers no cheer (Reuters)
  • European Stocks Fall, Credit Weakens as Signs of Distress Abound (BBG)
  • Management trouble at world's biggest hedge fund: Bridgewater succession plan in flux as heir Greg Jensen steps back (FT)
  • U.S. athletes should consider not attending Olympics if fear Zika - officials (Reuters)
  • Geithner Gets JPMorgan Credit Line to Invest With Warburg Pincus (BBG)
  • Top Clinton Donor Wants a Law Against $1 Million Gifts Like His (BBG)
  • Private equity groups under pressure to buy own stock (FT)
  • Before New Hampshire primary, Trump campaign shows mellower side (Reuters)
  • Big Companies Pull Back After Rough Quarter (WSJ)
  • A Dying Breed: Currency Traders Are Left Out of New Wall Street (BBG)
  • Bill Clinton Launches Attack on Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire (NBC)
  • Consumption Seen Dropping as Japan's Workers Eke Out 0.1% Rise (BBG)
  • Peyton Manning handed Budweiser $3.2 million in free ads after the Super Bowl (MarketWatch)
  • Guggenheim's $240 Billion Man Says Nasdaq to Tumble Below 3,800 (BBG)
  • Some Australian asylum seekers to be deported have cancer, terminal illnesses (Reuters)
  • High-Value Banknotes Should Be Binned to Fight Crime, Sands Says (BBG)
  • Job Site Hired Raises $40 Million and Forecasts Profit by 2017 (BBG)


Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

- Turkey's growing hostility towards Syrian Kurdish fighters on charges of professed smuggling of weapons to members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party in Syria, has strained U.S.-Turkish relations.(http://on.wsj.com/1mmyjAm)

- North Korea's launch of a long-range rocket triggered condemnation and prompted Washington and Seoul to formalize talks over deploying an advanced missile shield to South Korea, a move China strongly opposes.(http://on.wsj.com/1nQ4aKG)

- National Bank of Canada warned that its regulatory-capital level would take a hit after Germany's financial watchdog BaFin effectively shuttered one of its foreign investments, the German unit of Maple Financial Group.(http://on.wsj.com/1ojfxeV)

- After a tough end to 2015, big companies like Johnson & Johnson and Yahoo Inc are starting the new year with a tight rein on capital spending including layoffs, as they seek to cope with sluggish industrial demand and uncertainties about the continued resilience of the American consumer. (http://on.wsj.com/1SXLYL8)

- China's foreign-exchange reserves fell to the lowest level in more than three years in January, raising questions about how long Beijing can keep burning through the rainy-day funds to defend the yuan without triggering a huge flight of capital.(http://on.wsj.com/1L7fdEG)

- Hedge funds are betting the next bond sector to crack will be the $4.5 trillion market for the safest U.S. corporate debt and it won't be confined only to energy and junk bonds. (http://on.wsj.com/1Q2paVg)



FT

* French banks are now under increased investor pressure reduce branches and push customers to digital platforms to cut costs. "Shareholders are asking for a commitment to slim down branches and cut costs," David Benamou, head of investment at France's Axiom Alternative Investments said.

* Network Rail is urging ministers not to privatise the company and sell off large sections of Britain's rail infrastructure. Network Rail, which is publicly owned, says that breaking it up would make train travel more expensive, because it would undermine its ability to buy material in bulk at a lower price.

* UK government and regulators have initiated a push to change key aspects of the new Solvency II regime for insurers, citing concerns it is making some companies less competitive. The Treasury and the Bank of England highlighted areas that they would want to be altered as the government calls for wide and earlier review of the rules.

* PSA Peugeot Citroen is to give over 400 million euros ($445.60 million) worth of compensation to Iran's biggest carmaker for losses it incurred when the French carmaker left the country. Iran Khodro said that Peugeot had agreed to the arrangement to make up for problems caused in 2012, when it withdrew from Iran to comply with international sanctions against Tehran over its nuclear programme



NYT

- European officials knew that Volkswagen diesels fell short of pollution limits years before the company became engulfed in an emissions cheating scandal, records show. (http://nyti.ms/1Q4pqcI)

- Tidjane Thiam, chief executive of Credit Suisse, has asked the company's board to reduce his bonus, days after the Swiss bank reported a multi billion dollar loss in the fourth quarter. (http://nyti.ms/1Q4puZV)

- German banking regulator, known as Bafin, said on Sunday that it ordered a halt to financial transactions by Maple Bank, the German subsidiary of Maple Financial Group of Canada, that played a prominent role in attempts by the Porsche family to take over Volkswagen several years ago. (http://nyti.ms/1KAif9E)

- The infighting among lawyers for the plaintiffs suing General Motors over a flawed ignition switch intensified after one who helped uncover the defect, Lance Cooper, sharpened his attacks against another who is heading the case, Robert C Hilliard. (http://nyti.ms/1XcNysZ)



Britain

The Times

- The SFO accused Pinsent Masons yesterday of "deliberately" misinterpreting data showing that while the number of whistleblowing reports to the agency had risen last year by 324 to 2,832, only 16 new investigations had been opened. (http://thetim.es/1nRIT3q)

- A partial break-up and privatisation of Network Rail is back on the agenda under a plan being drawn up by Nicola Shaw, the boss of HS1. The chief executive of the high-speed route is considering proposals to spin off individual lines to investors and introduce an agency to oversee the industry at arm's length from government. (http://thetim.es/1nRIZrP)

The Guardian

- Next has been criticised by a group of heavyweight investors who say the company failed to act on a warning that could have prevented it from breaking company law, forcing the retail group to hold an expensive shareholder meeting this week. (http://bit.ly/1nRIJJr)

- Workers at Google Ireland, the search group's European sales hub, earn less than half the 160,000 pound average wage of colleagues in London despite the British sales team only providing a supporting role to their Irish counterparts. (http://bit.ly/1nRIQo4)

The Telegraph

- HSBC Holdings Plc's board is expected to come to a decision on the location of its headquarters in the coming days after an unexpectedly long-running review of the future of the British-based bank. A review was launched last year and initially was expected to reach a conclusion by the end of 2015. Investors are increasingly convinced that the bank will not quit the UK. (http://bit.ly/1nRIAph)

- Business Growth Fund, the nearly five year old equity fund, has reported a record month for investments, backing UK firms with 50 million pounds worth of capital in January alone. The fund, which has a 2.5 billion pound warchest of capital from Barclays Plc, HSBC Holdings, Lloyds Banking Group Plc , Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Standard Chartered Plc, has disclosed two of the investments made during that month. (http://bit.ly/1nRIFJI)

Sky News

- Ministers should sanction the construction of a new runway at Gatwick Airport and end dithering over the crucial issue of aviation capacity, billionaire hedge fund manager Crispin Odey and chief executive of Legal & General Nigel Wilson said. (http://bit.ly/1nRIduS)

- The long-serving finance director of BT Groupm Plc, Tony Chanmugam, is preparing to step down within months of the telecommunications regulator delivering its verdict on the company's structure. (http://bit.ly/1nRIePk)


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-08/frontrunning-february-8
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#6
Futures, Global Stocks Tumble As Europe Bank, Periphery Carnage Unfolds


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/08/2016 06:51 -0500


The biggest event of the weekend, if not the month, was China's FX reserve outflow update, which at $100BN was slightly better than the $120BN expected (it pushed China's reserves to the lowest in nearly 4 years) but it was in the "no man's land" between the BofA best case scenario ($37.5BN), and the GS worst case ($197BN). And while there was some hope this number, together with China being offline for the next week could lead to some stability across markets, this is what we said yesterday about this indecisive number: "for markets, what this means is that the next month will likely be market by more of the same sharp, illiquid volatility that has characterized 2016 so far."

So far this prediction has proven to be spot on, because while there was some initial risk on sentiment in the Asian ex-China session, where the Nikkei rose 1.1% on the back of an early ramp in the USDJPY (following the latest abysmal wage data out of Japan), everything went from bad to worse once Europe opened, and things started going "bump in the morning" across the European banking sector, where not only has it been more of the same with CDS spreads for major banks - most notably Deutsche Bank - continuing their surge wider, but also EM spreads to Bunds all following, with the Portugal-Germany Yield spread blowing out above 300 bps for the first time since 2014 and other peripheral nations following, such as Italy shown in the chart below:

Italy - Germany pic.twitter.com/XwQOsi2grT

— Guy Johnson (@GuyJohnsonTV) February 8, 2016

Here is a brief summary of the European carnage so far:

  • European banks decline, SX7P close to session low as of 11:52am CET (declines 2.6%, previously down as much as 3.3%).
  • Greek banks Eurobank Ergasias, Alpha Bank at record low; Monte Paschi follows as 3-worst performer today
    • Eurobank Ergasias sinks ~20% (as much as 21%)
    • Alpha Bank plummets 14% (as much as 18%)
    • Monte Paschi retreats 5.9% (as much as 8%)
  • AXIA Ventures notes first round of talks between Greek govt and heads of creditors’ representatives ended on Feb. 5; says all major issues still open, unclear when they’ll return to Athens to continue discussions
  • NOTE: Greek Bank Mgmt Review to Start End-Feb: Xenofos in Naftemporiki
  • Separately, Italian 10-yr spread with bunds widens for 3rd session; Currently at highest since July
Why the dramatic shift in European risk, where things were relatively stable for months on the heel of Europe's QE? Perhaps Morgan Stanley's note flagged last night had something to do with it. To wit:



One noteworthy aspect in the current risk-off environment is the lack of peripheral spread widening in Europe; this is unusual based on performance patterns during this cycle and most likely reflects the ECB’s substantial QE programme. While the region is often perceived as a relative consensus overweight among equity investors, we are more downbeat and prefer the US and Japan instead. Our European caution primarily reflects the prospect of further earnings disappointment across the region, but we are also wary of any resumption of geopolitical concerns.



Recent investor caution tends to focus on fears of excess USD strength, low oil prices and/or China, but we think it is quite plausible that Europe moves back up the pecking order (to its more usual place some would say!) as we move through 2016. The UK’s forthcoming referendum on EU membership, likely to take place in June, may appear the most plausible catalyst in the short term to raise regional risk premia, but the ongoing migrant issue risks eroding political cohesion over the medium term and political uncertainty is rising in the periphery. Greece has a daunting debt repayment due this summer, Spain is currently without a government, new European regulations are preventing Italy from adopting an effective ‘bad bank’ solution and the recently elected socialist government in Portugal is reversing course on prior austerity and competitiveness improvements. During a cyclical upswing, markets are prone to overlook such concerns, but the opposite would be true if growth starts to relapse.

Whatever the reason, one look at DB CDS which continue their relentless march into "something is very wrong with this counterparty" territory suggests that things are going from bad to worse for Europe's banking sector.





It is not just DB: as we have been warning for the past month, and especially last Friday, the blow out across the entire European bank sector is starting to resemble Lehman levels:

Can Draghi sell bank cds? Euro bank risk looks systemic. TBTF cds blowing out throughout EZ- most at 52wk wides. pic.twitter.com/dUZlhErIYO

— J Pierpont Morgan (@pierpont_morgan) February 8, 2016

To be sure, DB appealing to both the BOJ and ECB to stop their easing, as we noted over the weekend, will hardly help things, and if anything will prompt more questions just how bad DB truly is.

And with Germany's biggest bank once again on the ropes, and some even starting to casually throw out the "bailout" word, Germany's stocks fared no better:

  • DAX FALLS BELOW 200-WMA
  • DAX RSI FALLS INTO OVERSOLD TERRITORY BELOW 3O
Worst of all, there are no near-term catalysts that can help Europe: the slow-motion trainwreck will continue until somehow confidence in eurobank solvency is restored, and now that neither QE nor NIRP can prop up the financial system suddenly Mario Draghi and his Davos "peer-pressuring" company have their jobs cut out for them.

So while the markets stress about the future, and whether Janet Yellen's semi-annual congressional testimony mid week can achieve anything to shift risk sentiment, here is where we stand now.

Market Wrap:

  • S&P 500 futures down 1.1% to 1855
  • Stoxx 600 down 2.2% to 318.7
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.3% to 121
  • US 10-yr yield down 2bps to 1.82%
  • Dollar Index down 0.18% to 96.86
  • WTI Crude futures down 1.9% to $30.31
  • Brent Futures down 2.2% to $33.31
  • Gold spot up less than 0.1% to $1,174
  • Silver spot down 0.3% to $14.97
Top Global News

  • Negative Rates Seen as Option for Fed as BOJ, ECB Pave the Way: probability of negative Fed rate climbs to about 13%
  • Casino Says to Sell Big C Stake for EU3.1b to TCC Holding: comments in statement yday
  • Qube Group Makes Sweetened A$9b Offer for Asciano: target says revised offer is higher than Brookfield’s bid
  • INCJ Said to Argue Its $8.5 Billion Sharp Bid Tops Foxconn’s: Sharp has until Feb. 29 to decide on Foxconn bailout plan
  • VW Trucks Chief Open to IPO, Deals in Expansion Strategy: unit eyes growth options, may include acquisitions, IPO
  • World’s Largest Energy Trader Sees a Decade of Low Oil Prices: Vitol CEO says crude to stay $40-$60 for 10 years
A quick look at regional markets, we begin in Asian where equities started the week on the front-foot in holiday-thinned trade, despite the sell off on Wall Street after the latest mixed NFP release. As participants digested the US jobs report, the ASX 200 (-0.02%) and the Nikkei 225 (+1.1%) pared initial losses amid a turnaround in sentiment, while the latter had pulled off worst levels amid a softening JPY across the board. JGBs slipped amid spill over selling in USTs with yields rising across the curve, as such notable underperformance in the belly of the curve. As a reminder, markets in China are closed due to the Lunar New Year.

Asian Top News

  • Consumption Seen Dropping as Japan’s Workers Eke Out 0.1% Rise: Total wages haven’t risen more than 1% in any yr since 1997, labor ministry said
  • Gold Road Says Major Producers Interested in Gruyere Stake: AU gold explorer is prepared to discuss partnering on gold asset
  • Modi Budget Resolve Tested as Bonds Have Worst Start Since 2011: Investors confidence in PM Modi’s ability to meet budget targets dwindling as bonds and stocks posted steepest Jan. losses since 2011
  • China Venture Firm Raises $648 Million From Princeton, Duke: Qiming Venture Partners saw largest fund since it was founded in 2006, brings AUM to $2.5b
With much of Asia away from their desks this week for the Lunar New Year, European trade failed to find sentiment early on in the session, before equities began to selloff by mid-morning (Euro Stoxx: -2.4%). However, despite the weakness seen in equities, many of the 'usual suspects are among the best performers today, with the materials the best performing on a sector breakdown, while the worst performing major European index YTD, the FTSE MIB (-1.9%) the best performing index of the day.

European Top News

  • Assa Abloy Profit Meets Estimates Amid Growth in U.S., Europe: Says growth in U.S. offset China sales decline
  • Randgold’s 4Q Profit Falls 10% as Gold Prices Drop: Aims to mine 1.25m-1.3m ounces of gold in 2016
  • Anglo Platinum Sees More Price Pain as It Halts New Projects: Impairments of 14b rand represents 30% of book value
  • BT Confirms Search Process for CFO Successor; No Decision Taken: Co. responds to press speculation
  • Linde Says Reitzle Proposed as Chairman of Supervisory Board: Proposes to elect Wolfgang Reitzle as of May 21
  • Millicom to Sell its Democratic Republic of Congo Business: Sells 100% of Oasis for total cash of $160m to Orange
  • Amundi, Primonial in Talks to Buy EU1.3b Gecina Assets, Figaro says: In exclusive talks to buy 74 clinics, medicalized retirement homes from Gecina for EU1.3b
  • Areva CEO to Discuss Possible Gamesa Stake Sale With Govt Echos says: Newspaper cites interview with Areva CEO
  • Pimco Sees Biggest Flows in Europe From Yield-Hungry Insurers: Insurance asset management ‘one of the main opportunities’
In FX, a largely consolidative market in FX this morning, with this widely anticipated given the absence of China this week. However, in recent trade, USD/JPY has slipped back under 117.00 with stocks and Oil prices leading the way, and having the inverse impact on EUR/USD which is some 40-45 ticks higher to tip 1.1180. AUD saw some modest catch up play on the upside, but this has been tempered by the broader mood. CAD poised for fresh weakness also, and eyeing a return through 1.3900. EM currencies on the softer side, but only off better levels despite concerns over funding/investment levels highlighted by the BIS numbers. GBP on the soft side, as EU fears starting to bubble up once again — EUR/GBP through .7700.

WTI and Brent crude futures have sold off heading into the North American crossover, with Brent Apr'16 and WTI Mar'16 futures breaking below the USD 34.00 and USD 31.00 levels respectively. This comes in spite of news over the weekend that the Venezuelan and Saudi Oil Ministers had positive discussion in regards to OPEC/non-OPEC cooperation to stabilize oil markets. Such news may have moved oil markets previously, but now the level of scepticism around the chances of such a meeting happening seems to have increased significantly. Furthermore, speculators cut bullish bets on US crude oil in the week to, according to the CFTC.

Gold prices fell over USD 7 shortly after the reopen of the week's electronic trade amid touted profit taking having posted its best weekly gain since July'13 last week. However there has been strong inflows into gold ETF's and CFTC says COMEX gold speculators increased their bullish bets in the yellow metal to 3 month highs.

There is no macro news in the US today.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg:

  • A largely consolidative market in FX this morning - widely anticipated given the absence of China this week
  • WTI and Brent crude futures have sold off heading into the North American crossover, with Brent Apr'16 and WTI Mar'16 futures breaking below the USD 34.00 and USD 31.00 levels respectively
  • Today's calendar is very quiet in terms of data, however highlights include: Canadian housing starts and building permits as well as possible comments from BoC Deputy Governor Lane
  • Treasuries higher in overnight trading as European equities drop (China closed for holiday) ahead of this week’s Yellen testimony before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.
  • China’s foreign-exchange reserves shrank to $3.23 trillion, the smallest since 2012, indicating that the central bank sold dollars as the yuan’s retreat to a five-year low exacerbated depreciation pressure
  • Federal Reserve Chair Yellen is preparing to walk a tightrope when she addresses lawmakers in Washington; she will have to strike a balance between sounding confident on the domestic economy and acknowledging increased risks from abroad
  • Signs of distress in financial markets are gathering force as concern over the state of the global economy deepens. European stocks are down for a sixth day, the cost of protecting European banks’ and insurers’ senior debt is on its worst run since March 2013 and yields on Germany’s 10- year bunds are the lowest since April
  • Core EGBs bull flatten as credit-spreads widen and stocks selloff; peripherals underperform sharply, wider by 9bps-18bps vs 10Y bunds
  • Goldman Sachs is betting “Mr. Market” is wrong in its recession warnings. While sliding stocks, declining long- term bond rates and higher credit yields are sounding the alert, the bank’s economics team is more confident about the outlook for the developed world
  • Societe General has turned to the U.K.’s finance regulator as it tries to loosen rivals’ grip on European junk-bond issuance. A lack of competition is harming both issuers and investors by reducing market efficiency, according to the bank
  • The investment banking downsizing has been hard on foreign- exchange desks; there were 2,300 people working in currency- market front-office jobs at the world’s biggest banks in 2014, down 23% from 2010
  • While investors pulled funds from Pimco in the wake of co- founder Bill Gross’s departure, yield-hungry insurance companies kept faith with the company
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mixed with Greece +38bp, Portugal +14bp. European stocks lower, Asian stocks mixed (China closed for holiday); U.S. equity-index futures drop. Crude oil and copper lower, gold rises
US Event Calendar

  • 10:00am: Labor Market Conditions Index Change, Jan., est. 2.5 (prior 2.9)
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

So after what can only be described as a pretty noisy US employment report on Friday in which a disappointing headline payrolls number was shrugged off in favour of some unexpected improvement in the details, economists and investors will get another opportunity to sharpen (or blunt) Fed expectations this week when Fed Chair Yellen addresses the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and the Senate on Thursday at her semi-annual testimony (also formerly known as the ‘Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony’). While Friday’s data has seen futures markets since price in a slightly better than 50% chance of a hike this year (currently 53%), that put in the perspective of the four hikes implied by the dot plots and the huge gap still between the two means Yellen will have to choose her words wisely. The last couple of weeks have seen more evidence of a dovish leaning from Fed officials, including Fischer and Dudley and we’d expect Yellen to echo a similar acknowledgement of recent tightening in financial conditions and increased global growth concerns.

It’s likely that this will be somewhat balanced with upbeat commentary around the labour market in particular despite that below-market January payroll number (151k vs. 190k expected). In fairness this was about in line with the whisper number while much was made of the three-month moving average being at a still robust 231k. It was the details in the report which got most talking however. After expectations had been for no change, the unemployment rate declined one-tenth last month to 4.9% and a post-recession low. The broader U-6 measure held steady at 9.9%. Meanwhile average hourly earnings rose an impressive +0.5% mom (vs. +0.3% expected) meaning on a YoY rate earnings are +2.5%.

A short-lived sharp drop aside, the Dollar index closed up +0.58% on Friday following the data and helped to slightly dampen what was a rough week for the Greenback with the five-day fall for the index (-2.59%) the most since October 2011. Treasury yields initially jumped higher but then pared that entire move into the close. 10y Treasury yields were up as high as 1.894% (+5bps on the day) before falling back to 1.840% by the finish. The data was less kind to risk assets however although a weak day for tech stocks didn’t help (LinkedIn in particular tumbling 40% following some much softer than expected management guidance for Q1) with the S&P 500 eventually closing down -1.85% and the Nasdaq down a steep -3.25%. In credit markets CDX IG finished over 5bps wider. Oil resumed its downward march with WTI eventually finishing -2.62% and back below $31/bbl although Gold continued its strong run of late, closing up +1.54% for its sixth consecutive daily gain and at $1173/oz is now at the highest since the end of October.

Over the weekend the main news of note is out of China where the latest FX reserves data is in. Reserves declined $99.5bn in the month of January to $3.23tn (vs. $3.21tn) - the third consecutive month that reserves have fallen and the second most on record. With Chinese New Year kicking off today and markets there subsequently closed (as well as in a number of other Asia economies), markets are a bit more muted in Asia this morning. In Japan we’ve seen the Nikkei (+0.77%) pare some early steep losses to trade higher, while in Australia the ASX (-0.03%) is back to near unchanged. WTI is up 1% after a meeting between Oil Ministers from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela on the weekend was said to be ‘productive’ but seemingly yielded nothing more. US equity market futures are signaling some small gains.

Moving on. In the wake of Friday’s data, DB’s Chief US Economist Joe Lavorgna has revised down 2016 growth and inflation forecasts, while at the same time has altered his Fed rate call to just one hike this year which he expects to be in December. Highlighting tighter financials conditions, elevated inventories, weak global growth and depressed energy-related capital spending, Joe has reduced his estimates of Q1, Q2 and Q3 real GDP growth in 2016 to 0.5%, 1.0% and 1.2% from 1.5%, 2.2% and 2.1% respectively. Consequently, he expects full-year 2016 real GDP growth, as measured on a Q4-over-Q4 basis to now be 1.3% (from 2.0%). With regards to core CPI, Joe is forecasting 1.9% yoy in Q1, followed by 1.8% in Q2-Q4.

In terms of the rest of Friday’s data, the December US trade balance revealed a modest widening in the deficit by just over $1bn to $43.4bn (vs. $43.2bn expected). Post the market close we got the latest consumer credit data covering December which was much higher than expected at $21.3bn (vs. $16.0bn expected). Reflecting the latest forecast for real consumer spending growth post Friday’s employment report and also for real gross private domestic investment growth, the Atlanta Fed upgraded their Q1 2016 real GDP growth forecast to 2.2% from 1.2% on February 1st.

European risk assets succumbed to much of the post-payrolls weakness on Friday too with the likes of the Stoxx 600 (-0.87%) and DAX (-1.14%) closing lower following a fairly choppy session. It’s been the moves in credit however and specifically financials which are starting to take up more attention. Main closed +5.5bps on Friday, while Crossover finished +17bps, but it was the moves for senior (+13bps) and sub-financials (+28bps) which were more eye catching. In fact, YTD the sub-fins index is +122bps wider, which compares to Crossover which is +107bps wider. Senior financials are now +44bps wider while Main is +33bps wider. A lot of this reflects what’s been a particularly disappointing quarter for earnings in the sector which is adding to the energy and global growth related worries, but the concern is that it could be something more and is certainly something else for Draghi to consider ahead of next month. It’s noticeable also that there are a number of bank share prices now approaching or even slightly below 2008/09 levels.

That takes us to the latest in earnings season which in the US has now passed the half way mark. There wasn’t much to report from Friday’s reporters, but with 315 S&P 500 companies having now reported, we’ve seen 244 (77%) beat on earnings but just 146 (46%) beat at the sales line. A reminder of how that compares to previous quarters. From Q1 to Q3 last year we saw 73%, 75% and 74% beat at the earnings line, but just 48%, 49% and 44% report beats at the top line. So a fairly mixed bag this quarter. European earnings season is still to get going properly and so far we’ve seen 199 Stoxx 600 companies report with 50% beating earnings guidance and 64% sales guidance. It’s worth highlighting that the data for European earnings is a lot more inconsistent however.

Onto the week ahead now. It’s a fairly quiet start to proceedings this week with the only data of note in Europe being German industrial production for December and confidence indicators for the Euro area and France. The usual post-payrolls lull in the US means there’s no data due across the pond today. Tuesday’s highlights include trade reports covering the December month out of both Germany and the UK, while across the pond the January NFIB small business optimism reading is due out, along with the December JOLTS report and wholesale inventories and trade sales data for the same month. Turning to Wednesday we’re starting in Japan where the latest January PPI numbers are due out. In Europe we’ll get regional industrial production reports for Italy, France and the UK while the sole release in the US in the afternoon is the January Monthly Budget Statement. It’s a particularly quiet day for data on Thursday with nothing of note in Europe and just initial jobless claims data due in the US. It looks like we’ll have a busy end to the week on Friday with Euro area Q4 GDP and industrial production, French employment data and German Q4 GDP and CPI all due out. In the US the big focus will be on the January retail sales data along with the first reading for the University of Michigan consumer sentiment print for February and December business inventories data.

Arguably the focus of the week will be away from the data and instead reserved for the aforementioned Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual testimony to the House Financial Services on Wednesday and the Senate on Thursday. Also due to speak will be the Fed’s Williams on Wednesday and Dudley on Friday. Meanwhile we’ll also see the attention for the US presidential election move to New Hampshire which is due to hold the first-in-the-nation primary on Tuesday.

Elsewhere, earnings season rumbles on and we’ve got 64 S&P 500 companies set to report including Coca-Cola, Walt Disney and Cisco. In Europe we’ve got 80 Stoxx 600 companies reporting including Total, L’Oreal, Heineken and Nokia.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...-tumble-europe-bank-periphery-carnage-unfolds
 

Argent Dragon

Site Support
Midas Member
Site Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 29, 2010
Messages
8,298
Likes
3,040
Location
Lone Star State
#7

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#10
Frontrunning: February 9


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/09/2016 07:49 -0500

  • Investors dump stocks (Reuters)
  • Global Bond Rally Near `Panic' Level With Japan Yield Below Zero (BBG)
  • Global Growth Fears Hit Bank Stocks (WSJ)
  • GOP Race for Second in New Hampshire Intensifies (WSJ)
  • N.H. Primary: Where Each 2016 Candidate Needs to Place to Build Momentum (WSJ)
  • ‘Risk parity’ strategy shows strain (WSJ)
  • U.N. fears for hundreds of thousands if Syria troops encircle Aleppo (Reuters)
  • World's Negative-Yielding Bond Pile Tops $7 Trillion (BBG)
  • IEA Warns Oil Prices Could Fall Further as Oversupply Worsens (WSJ)
  • Nine dead, more than 100 hurt in train crash near Bavarian spa town (Reuters)
  • Central Banks Make Global Economy Vulnerable, OECD's White Says (BBG)
  • Rubio needs strong New Hampshire showing to rebut debate critics (Reuters)
  • Hong Kong Police Clash With Rioters in Shopping District (BBG)
  • Wagers on technology and banks are now costing some investors (WSJ)
  • Americans Can’t Help Themselves From Borrowing More on Credit Cards (BBG)


Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

- Market anxiety spilled over into Asia early Tuesday, sending investors scurrying for havens like Japanese government bonds, where 10-year yields fell to zero percent for the first time. (http://on.wsj.com/1TPdXxd)

- For investors in emerging markets, Venezuela has quickly turned from a source of opportunity to a cause for concern. Though the country vows it will make its Feb. 26 payment, markets remain skeptic. (http://on.wsj.com/1W92APu)

- In a blow to financial services giant Blackstone Group LP , Brixmor revealed that accounting personnel had manipulated financial results and said its chief executive and other top managers had stepped down. (http://on.wsj.com/1W98XCb)

- A loss by Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire would sting less if the former secretary of state trails only among independents in her party's primary. While a Donald Trump's victory would come with caution signs if the Republican doesn't expand his blue-collar base. (http://on.wsj.com/1W9cBMw)

- The Obama administration plans to boost the federal government's power to investigate and punish colleges accused of deceptive marketing tactics and other misconduct, part of a campaign to address years of student complaints about for-profit institutions. (http://on.wsj.com/1W9d7u3)



FT

* UK's class of nuclear-armed submarines is near completion with the release of 201 million pounds ($289.80 million)to BAE Systems to fund the last development stages before parliament votes on renewing Trident.

* The Open Banking Working Group, which took a review last year at the request of the Treasury, called for information on banks' products and customers to be more easily accessed by digital services, including comparison websites.

* An increasing squeeze on Britain's public finances will require Chancellor George Osborne to break several records if he is to balance the books by end of the decade, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

* HSBC Holdings Plc looks towards keeping its head office in London after months of agonising debate reflecting a reversal of the previous stance of Chief Executive Stuart Gulliver.



NYT

- After more than six years of negotiations, the global aviation industry agreed on Monday to the first binding limits on carbon dioxide emissions, tackling the fastest-growing source of greenhouse gas pollution. (http://nyti.ms/1UZJb35)

- Time may finally be running out on the Mixed Oxide Fuel Fabrication Facility, a multi-billion dollar, over-budget federal project that has been hard to kill. (http://nyti.ms/1UZJb35)

- Mark Zuckerberg's grand vision to connect the entire world, hit a major roadblock on Monday, when Indian regulators banned free mobile data programs that favor some Internet services over others. (http://nyti.ms/1PxATMl)

- Investment manager Allianz Global Investors said on Monday it had agreed to acquire Rogge Global Partners, a fixed income firm in London, for an undisclosed amount. (http://nyti.ms/1nUiYrP)



Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Bay Street lawyer Mitchell Finkelstein has launched an appeal of an Ontario Securities Commission ruling that he tipped a long-time friend about pending takeover deals, arguing the regulator made "impermissible inferences" in a ruling "based entirely on circumstantial evidence." (http://bit.ly/1SFzrOb)

** Goodwill Industries of Toronto, Eastern, Central and Northern Ontario, Goodwill's defunct Toronto-based chapter that suddenly closed last month and laid off 430 employees, is filing for bankruptcy in an attempt to restructure and even reopen some of its thrift stores. (http://bit.ly/20lDygY)

** Canadian investors are digging in their heels on both sides of the A$9 billion ($6.33 billion) tug-of-war for port and rail company Asciano Ltd - and the latest development shows neither side is backing down. On Monday, the months-long talks to acquire the Melbourne-based company took a turn as a revised offer from an Australian consortium became the new preference of the board of directors, putting previous board favorite Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP on unsteady ground.

NATIONAL POST

** Interest rates should not be the only tool to promote financial stability, the Bank of Canada's Timothy Lane said, amid worries of highly indebted consumers and frothy housing markets in Toronto and Vancouver. (http://bit.ly/20lGv12)

** Tahoe Resources Inc's friendly $945 million deal to buy Lake Shore Gold Corp is being viewed as a logical transaction that addresses challenges faced by both companies. Tahoe gets to diversify into Canada, increase its growth profile and reduce exposure to Guatemala, a very challenging jurisdiction. Lake Shore, meanwhile, can develop its projects quickly without worrying about diluting shareholders or taking on more debt. (http://bit.ly/1QoRVfj)



Britain

The Times

The Financial Conduct Authority has admitted that it must tighten its rules over trading by staff in shares of the banks and brokers it regulates after an internal inquiry found that sensitive information was being stored in places where any employee could find it. (http://thetim.es/1TP38Lv)

Britain's Supreme Court is to hear an urgent appeal on behalf of thousands of Lloyds bank retail bondholders against its attempts to buy back their assets at a reduced price, in a scheme that was due to start today. (http://thetim.es/1TP3emq)

The Guardian

Imagination Technologies, maker of Pure digital radios, has decided to sell the business and parted company with its longtime chief executive, Hossein Yassaie, after warning that it would suffer a loss this year. (http://bit.ly/1TP222p)

Britain's leading experts on public finances are warning that the turmoil of global stock markets threatens to leave a 2 billion pounds ($2.88 billion) black hole in George Osborne's deficit-reduction plans that could force the chancellor to raise taxes or make fresh cuts in spending to hit his budget targets. (http://bit.ly/1TP2bD1)

The Telegraph

Ascential, the magazine business jointly owned by Guardian Media Group and private equity group Apax, is expected to float for 820 million pounds ($1.18 billion) on Wednesday after eight years in private ownership. (http://bit.ly/1TP2DkC)

Royal London Asset Management, which manages more than 80 billion pounds ($115.36 billion) of assets, has told bosses that it will not tolerate mega bonus payouts at lenders which are failing. (http://bit.ly/1TP2Mof)

Sky News

The Rugeley plant in Staffordshire, a coal-fired power station that can provide enough energy to power one million homes, is to close this summer with the potential loss of 150 jobs. (http://bit.ly/1TP2QUW)

The major shareholders of easyGym - who do not include Stelios Haji-Ioannou, the high-profile easyGroup founder - have appointed Houlihan Lokey, an investment bank, to oversee a sale of the fitness club chain later this year, Sky News said. (http://bit.ly/1TP31j8)

The Independent

Charities in UK are calling on the government to introduce legislation to ban supermarkets from sending unsold food to landfills. On Wednesday, France introduced a law that bans supermarkets from throwing away waste food - instead forcing them to donate it to charities and food banks or face a fine of 3,750 euros ($4,200.38). (http://ind.pn/1W8D0Kk)


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-09/frontrunning-february-9
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#11
Global Markets Stunned By Biggest Japan Crash Since 2013; All Eyes On Deutsche Bank


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/09/2016 07:01 -0500


With China offline for the rest of the week, global markets have found a new Asian bogeyman in the face of Japan which as reported last night saw its markets crash, and the Yen soar, showing that less than 2 weeks after the BOJ unveiled NIRP, yet another central bank has lost control.





The Nikkei crashed 5.4%, the biggest drop since June 2013, plunging over 900 points to August 24 lows driven by collapsing bank stocks while the Yen soared to 114.50 overnight before the BoJ desperately tried to push the Yen lower, with London dealers reported the Japanese central bank was checking rates and levels to prompt short covering through 115.





But while the BOJ failed to push up equities, it certain managed to launch a panic buying spree in JGBs, which as also reported finally saw the 10 Year Japanese TSY slide into negative yield territory, thus boosting the global number of bonds with a negative yield to just shy 30% of total or roughly $7 trillion!

Aside from Japan, everyone is looking at the bank which we first asked if it was "the next Lehman" last June, namely Germany's Deutsche Bank, to see if yesterday's desperate scramble to publicly confirm it has sufficient liquidity will sufficient will stop the price from dropping and its CDS drom blowing out. For now, the stock is indeed up modestly, even if the CDS has refused to tighten suggesting that whatever management did, it is not enough and it is only a matter of time before the selling returns.

As a result of this temporary stabilization in financials, the Europe 600 Index was little changed after closing Monday at its lowest level since 2014, and U.S. equity-index futures were also steady. European indexes of credit-default swaps on corporate debt fell for the first time in more than a week, Germany’s 10-year bund yield climbed the most this year and crude in New York rose above $30 a barrel. Equities in Tokyo slumped earlier by the most since August and the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds turned negative for the first time.

"Volatility is getting very high,” Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at MPPM EK in Eppstein, Germany told BLoomberg. “Investors need to increase their cash and be careful in case they see any buying opportunities. A technical rally may easily get sold again, we won’t come back to calm waters soon.”

While oil took on secondary importance during yesterday's financial-led rout, expect algos and even human traders to pay more attention to crude today after the latest IEA monthly reported predicted supply will exceed demand by an avg of 1.75m b/d in 1H, compared w/ fcast of 1.5m last month. “With the market already awash in oil, it is very hard to see how oil prices can rise significantly in the short term. In these conditions the short term risk to the downside has increased,” IEA says. It added that the global oil demand fcast for 2016 100k b/d lower than previous mos. report at 95.6m b/d. Elsewhere, Goldman once again warned that oil may drop into the teens as land storage capacity is exhausted.

Looking at today's calendar, it’s another fairly quiet session for data in Europe this morning with the only releases of note being the December trade numbers out of the UK and Germany along with the latest industrial production data in the latter. Over in the US the early release is the NFIB small business optimism survey for January, followed by the December JOLTS job openings and wholesale trade sales and inventories data. As a reminder, JOLTS data is released with a one-month lag so the data will be reflecting what was a bumper month for hiring (payrolls +262k) in December and not reflective of the recent softer payrolls number. Earnings wise we’ve got 18 S&P 500 companies set to report including Walt Disney and Coca-Cola.

Market Wrap

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 1844
  • Stoxx 600 down 0.6% to 312
  • DAX down 0.5% to 8926
  • German 10Yr yield up 5bps to 0.27%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up 1bp to 1.69%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.76%
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 2.9% to 118
  • Nikkei 225 down 5.4% to 16085
  • S&P/ASX 200 down 2.9% to 4832
  • US 10-yr yield up 1bps to 1.76%
  • Dollar Index down 0.06% to 96.52
  • WTI Crude futures up 2.0% to $30.29
  • Brent Futures up 2% to $33.54
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,188
  • Silver spot up less than 0.1% to $15.32
Top Global News

  • Michael Bloomberg Tells FT He’s Considering Run for President: tells FT he’s “looking at all the options”
  • IEA Raises Estimate of Surplus Oil Supply on Higher OPEC Output: Excess seen at 1.75m barrels a day in 1H
  • Japan Joins German Bond Wonderland as Yields Below Zero the Norm: Lower borrowing costs come at expense of resurgent yen
  • Renzi Is Betting on Cameron, Sees Anti-‘Brexit’ Deal Soon: Italian premier says proposed changes ‘a good compromise’
  • Google, Apple Face Kremlin Tax Fire for ‘Milking’ Russia: Google’s reach considered national security threat to Russia
  • Deutsche Bank Says It Can Pay Coupons in Sign Jitters Mount: Lender is due to pay about EU350m in April
  • AIG Said to Plan Exit From at Least Half of Hedge Fund Positions: Insurer said to limit to 50 funds or fewer, from more than 100
  • Japan Fund Said to Pitch Sharp on Plan for Smart Appliance Giant: INCJ sets aside 100b yen as acquisition war chest
A quick look at regional markets, we start in Asia where stocks picked up where global equities left off as the newly added woes triggered by Deutsche Bank has seen the financial sector deflate the Asia-Pac region. In turn, the Nikkei 225 (-5.4%) bared the brunt of the risk-off sentiment, with banks in the region feeling the squeeze, whilst a firmer JPY saw the bourse fall over 900 points. Elsewhere, ASX 200 (-2.9%) could not escape the reach of the downbeat tone as the index was also pressured by financials, which accounts for nearly half of the total composition of the bourse. JGBs were bolstered by the dampened sentiment sparking flight-to-quality trade, with yields across the curve yet again falling to record lows, additionally Japanese 10yr yields are now the first among the G7 nations to go negative.

Asian Top News

  • Yen Jumps to 2014 High as Japan 10-Year Yield Drops Below Zero: Yen rose against all 31 major peers as Topix tumbled 5.5%, 10 yr yield fell unprecedented decline below zero
  • Credit Risk Soars From Japan to Australia on Global Bank Anxiety: Credit-default swap costs in Japan, AU soared amid markets across much of Asia Pacific closed for Lunar New Year
  • Beefing Up Down Under: Aussies Find New Boom in China Demand: Aussie beef sales to China surged six-fold in 3 yrs to a record A$917m in 2015; export boom signals AU is successfully transitioning away from mining
  • India State Firms’ Valuation Discount May Trigger Rebound: Chart; Shrs of India’s state-run cos are cheapest in more than two yrs relative to stocks on nation’s benchmark index
Fears over the European banking sector linger in markets this morning and European equity markets have seen choppy price action since the open. Initially led lower by the Nikkei 225 closing lower by over 5%, equities have since trended higher after in vogue Deutsche Bank stated that that their 2016 payment capacity is enough to finance their AT1 payment. As a result, the German heavyweight provided some reprieve for Europe, with the iTraxx Sub Financial index, an index tracking the value of CDS's, moving in sympathy with Deutsche and tightening by 19bps. The same cannot be said for Credit Suisse (-3.7%) however, the Swiss bank is continuing to suffer from its poor earnings reported last week and questions surrounding the banks' ability to a large fine.

European Top News

  • Primonial-Led Group Buys Gecina Health Assets for $1.51b: Deal to be completed mid-2016
  • Swedbank CEO Ousted by Board as Permanent Replacement Sought: Michael Wolf, 52, will be replaced by Birgitte Bonnesen as acting CEO
  • TUI Turkish Bookings Plunge as Vacationers Seek Safer Spain: Turkey summer reservations tumble 40% after January attack
  • Vestas Wind Raises Dividend Predicting Record Sales After Boom: sees EU9b of sales in 2016, 11% margin
  • Vestas CEO Says He Has ‘No Intention’ of Bidding for Gamesa
  • Pound Seen Tumbling Whether U.K. Stays in EU or Seeks ‘Brexit’: Biggest bears’ forecasts aren’t contingent on U.K. quitting
  • Sanofi Says Profit Won’t Grow as Bestseller Lantus Fades: Lantus sales drop amid biosimilar competition in Europe
  • Tesco Sales Drop Eases as U.K. Grocery Leader Begins Turnaround: Kantar data suggests customers may be returning
  • Pandora Forecasts Slower Sales Growth on Trimmed Expansion Plans: Sales this year will rise at least 14% to 19b kroner in 2016, vs growth rate of 40% last year
  • Securitas 4Q EPS Misses Ests.; Dividend Raised: 4Q EPS SEK1.83 vs est. SEK1.98
  • Handelsbanken Profit Rose Less Than Estimated in Fourth Quarter: Loan losses greater than expected, increased costs
In FX, Once again it was an early London session left to provide some stability in the markets, and in FX improved liquidity levels naturally help. USD/JPY lows in Asia bottomed out at 114.22, but dealers reported the BoJ checking rates and levels to prompt short covering through 115.00, though 115.50 has proved an obstacle since. EUR/USD continues to trade in the opposite direction, but it is a little too early to suggest the 1.1236 highs are the top of the move. The commodity currencies take a back seat as Oil stabilises and Gold now a safe haven. USD/CAD is still holding off 1.4000, while AUD is propped up ahead of .7000. GBP posted fresh 1 year lows against the EUR ahead of .7800, but has retraced in line with EUR/USD. Cable pivoting on 1.4400 for now. EUR/CHF now just under 1.1000 as CHF naturally benefitting in current climate.

Looking at commodities, oil took a back seat in yesterday's trade, however has quietly ticked higher in Europe, with WTI Mar'16 futures comfortably holding the USD 30.00 handle and as such the energy sector is one of the better performers in Europe. However a note from Goldman Sachs saying that oil could oil prices 'go into the teens', may cause oil bulls some anxiety.

As North American participants come to their desks the yellow metal has dipped below the USD 1900/oz level, finding a tight range following yesterday's stock-market rout inspired gains. Of note, Goldman Sachs have said they are not buying into the recent rally, as they still foresee three fed hikes this year, driving the price of gold down to around USD 1000/oz by year end

Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • In a choppy session, Deutsche Bank (+1.3%) trades higher in Europe after stating stated that that their 2016 payment capacity is enough to finance their AT1 payment
  • Once again it was an early London session left to provide some stability in the markets, and in FX improved liquidity levels naturally help
  • Today's highlights include: US JOLTS job openings and Wholesale inventories, as well as comments from ECB's Linde
  • Treasuries lower in overnight trading before week’s note auctions begin with $24b 3Y notes, WI 0.845% vs 1.174% in Jan., was first 3Y to stop through by more than 1bp since Aug. 2011.
  • Deutsche Bank, under pressure over its ability to pay coupons on the riskiest debt, reassured investors that it has sufficient funds after the shares plunged the most in almost seven years, eroding almost €2 billion ($2.2 billion) in market value
  • European banks have “ample liquidity,” with deposits flowing in and higher capital buffers, reducing the risk of repeating the financial crisis, according to Goldman Sachs
  • Central banks’ ultra-loose monetary policy is putting the world economy at risk, said William White, a senior adviser to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
  • The yield on Japan’s benchmark 10Y bond fell below zero for the first time, an unprecedented level for a G7 economy, as global financial turmoil and the Bank of Japan’s adoption of negative interest rates drive demand for the notes
  • The Federal Reserve may not have the legal authority to set negative interest rates in the U.S., according to a 2010 staff memo that was posted late last month on the central bank’s website
  • Oil could drop below $20 a barrel as the search for a level that brings supply and demand back into balance makes prices even more volatile, Goldman Sachs predicted
  • The global oil surplus will be bigger than previously estimated in the first half, increasing the risk of further price losses, as OPEC members Iran and Iraq bolster production while demand growth slows, according to the IEA
  • German industrial production unexpectedly fell for a second month in December, a sign that a slowdown in major export markets is holding back factory activity despite strong domestic demand
  • President Obama will send a fiscal 2017 budget of ~$4 trillion to the Republican-controlled Congress on Tuesday representing his aspirations for the future of the U.S. Little of it, as the Obama administration acknowledges, will become law anytime soon
  • No IG corporates (YTD volume $181.575b) and no HY (YTD volume $9.015b) priced Friday
  • BofAML Corporate Master Index OAS 4bp higher yesterday at +213 (highest since July 2012), +11bp MTD, +40bp YTD; T1Y range 213/129
  • BofAML High Yield Master II OAS 41bp higher yesterday at +851 (highest since Oct. 2011), +74bp MTD, +156bp YTD; T1Y range 851/438
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mixed with Greece +27bp, Portugal +13bp. European stocks mixed, Asian stocks lower (China closed for holiday); U.S. equity-index futures drop. Crude oil rises, copper, gold fall
US Event Calendar

  • 6:00am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, Jan., est. 94.5 (prior 95.2)
  • 10:00am: JOLTS Job Openings, Dec., est. 5.413m (prior 5.431m)
  • 10:00am: Wholesale Inventories, m/m, Dec., est. -0.2% (prior -0.3%)
  • Wholesale Trade Sales, m/m, Dec., est. -0.4% (prior -1%)
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $55b 4W bills
  • 1:00pm: U.S. to sell $24b 3Y notes
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Onto the latest in Asia this morning now where bourses in Japan and Australia are extending much of yesterday’s turmoil. It’s the moves in Japan which have been more eye-catching with the Topix and Nikkei currently -5.71% and - 5.58% and moving lower as we go to print. In Australia the ASX is -2.88%. Credit markets have taken a big hit in the region with iTraxx Japan and Australia indices both +10bps wider. Meanwhile 10y JGB’s have crossed into negative territory this morning and plummeted to fresh record lows. The benchmark maturity is down over 3bps in early trading and currently sitting at -0.022%. That’s despite another strong performance for the Yen, currently up over 1% and in the process reaching a 15-month high and extending the incredible run since the BoJ cut rates to negative. Oil is hovering around the $30/bbl mark while US equity futures are down around 1% as we refresh our screens.

Moving on. The latest DB TheHouseView titled “Still deep in the woods” came out overnight. The team notes that in addition to the initial concerns about China and energy, two new issues are further weighing on risk sentiment: the slowdown in US growth momentum and the tightening of financial conditions especially in European financial credit. Their macro outlook for 2016 is broadly unchanged so far, uninspiring but not a disaster, but they note that downside risks have risen both in the US and in Europe. Until US growth, European financial conditions, China and oil concerns are put aside, markets will remain volatile and a sustained change in risk appetite is difficult.

In truth yesterday was dominated by the moves for European financials with very little newsflow or data elsewhere to drive markets. The latter was largely secondary in nature. In Europe we saw the Sentix investor confidence reading for the Euro area decline 3.6pts this month to 6.0 (vs. 7.4 expected). Meanwhile in the US the labour market conditions index was softer than expected last month at 0.4 (vs. 2.0 expected), a fall of 1.9pts relative to December.

Unsurprisingly safe-havens dominated the few asset classes which actually saw gains yesterday. Of particular note was the move for Gold which finished up +1.35% for its fourth consecutive daily gain of at least 1%, with the metal at one stage trading up through $1200/oz for the first time since June last year. Meanwhile core sovereign bond yields marched lower. 10y Bunds finished just shy of 8bps lower at 0.216% and the lowest since April last year when the yield closed at a record low 7.4bps at one stage. Other core European bond markets saw similar moves while the peripherals sold off with Italy, Spain and Portugal +12.3bps, +10.7bps and +25.3bps wider respectively. 10y Treasury yields (-8.7bps) closed at the lowest in 12-months meanwhile at 1.749% (and have marched lower this morning, testing 1.7% to the downside) while the probability of the one Fed rate hike this year has quickly plummeted back towards 30%.

Before we move onto today’s calendar, one interesting highlight from the ECB’s Coeure yesterday was the reference to potential coordination on emerging market currencies. In an interview with French press, Coeure suggested that a further depreciation for EM currencies is possible and that ‘that’s an issue for global coordination’ which will be discussed at the G20 finance ministers meeting in Shanghai in 10 days time.

Looking at the day ahead now, it’s another fairly quiet session for data in Europe this morning with the only releases of note being the December trade numbers out of the UK and Germany along with the latest industrial production data in the latter. Over in the US the early release is the NFIB small business optimism survey for January, followed by the December JOLTS job openings and wholesale trade sales and inventories data. As a reminder, JOLTS data is released with a one-month lag so the data will be reflecting what was a bumper month for hiring (payrolls +262k) in December and not reflective of the recent softer payrolls number. Earnings wise we’ve got 18 S&P 500 companies set to report including Walt Disney and Coca-Cola.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...ggest-japan-crash-2013-all-eyes-deutsche-bank
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#13

Argent Dragon

Site Support
Midas Member
Site Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 29, 2010
Messages
8,298
Likes
3,040
Location
Lone Star State
#14

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#15
Shipping & Energy 02/09:

Nicaragua Sticks to $50 Billion Canal Plan as Setbacks Pile Up
http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-O1Q6L86S972C01-6S44MSRQ0LF5NLJ1DMFLKROSFJ

U.S. Navy is urged to slow littoral ship deployments until more testing
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...ttoral-ship-deployments-testing/#.Vrn_VpX2bIV

Edison Chouest’s New TopShip Shipyard to Create 1,000 Jobs
http://gcaptain.com/edison-chouest-...00-jobs-in-gulfport-mississippi/#.Vrn_rZX2bIU

Baltic Index Down Again on Muted Vessel Demand
http://gcaptain.com/baltic-index-down-again-on-muted-vessel-demand/#.VroAJJX2bIU

Iran Starts Sending Crude to Europe in Bid to Regain Lost Market
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-crude-to-europe-in-bid-to-regain-lost-market

Peak Oil Review - Feb 8
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2016-02-08/peak-oil-review-2016-Feb-8

Bankrupt Alpha Natural Resources lays off over 230 coal miners
http://www.mining.com/bankrupt-alpha-natural-resources-lays-off-over-230-coal-miners/

Who Would Be The Best Presidential Candidate For Energy Companies?
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...sidential-Candidate-For-Energy-Companies.html

Iran Signs Oil Deal With Total, Deal Done In Euros
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Iran-Signs-Oil-Deal-With-Total-Deal-Done-In-Euros.html

2 charged for faking IDs used for Port of Los Angeles access
http://www.dailynews.com/general-ne...aking-ids-used-for-port-of-los-angeles-access

Georgia to Build New Silk Road Port
http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/georgia-to-build-new-silk-road-port

Watch: International Fleet Review 2016
http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/watch-international-fleet-review-2016

Jump in Dangerous Goods Issues After Tianjin
http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/jump-in-dangerous-goods-issues-after-Tianjin
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#17
Entering the Belly of the Epocalypse
By: David Haggith
Only a couple of weeks ago, I said we were entering the jaws of the Epocalypse. Now we are sliding rapidly down the great beast’s throat toward its cavernous belly. The biggest economic collapse the world has ever seen is consuming everything — all commodities, all industries, all national economies, all monetary systems, and eventually all peace and stability. This is the mother of all recessions.


Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Slightly Lower
By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com
Gold edged down to $1185.75 in Asia before it chopped up to $1198.93 in early afternoon New York trade, but it then fell back off into the close and ended with a loss of 0.2%. Silver slipped to as low as $15.184 and ended with a loss of 0.52%.
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#18
COLLAPSE & NO 2016 ELECTION | Bix Weir
FinanceAndLiberty.com


Published on Feb 9, 2016
IN THIS INTERVIEW
- Why is it taking so long for the "Good Guys" to crash the system? ►2:07
- Who will be the losers during the crash? ►7:10
- The "Bad Guys" and their secret plans for 2016 ►12:17
- No presidential election in 2016? ►17:49
- War on United States soil? ►29:07
- What would be the "New World Order" ►30:29
- How much will silver be worth in the future? ►35:27

GUEST: http://RoadToRoota.com
SPONSOR: http://SDBullion.com

FINANCE AND LIBERTY:
SUBSCRIBE (it's FREE!) to "Finance and Liberty" for more interviews and financial insight ►http://bit.ly/Subscription-Link
Website ► http://FinanceAndLiberty.com
Like us on Facebook ►http://fb.com/FinanceAndLiberty
Follow us on Twitter ►http://twitter.com/Finance_Liberty
Google Plus ►http://Gplus.to/FinanceLiberty
Title and video graphics by Josiah Johnson Studios ►http://JosiahJohnsonStudios.com

DISCLAIMER: The financial and political opinions expressed in this interview are those of the guest and not necessarily of "Finance and Liberty" or its staff. Opinions expressed in this video do not constitute personalized investment advice and should not be relied on for making investment decisions.
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#19
Frontrunning: February 10


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/10/2016 07:37 -0500
  • Global Stocks Bounce Back After Market Selloff; Asia Stumbles (WSJ)
  • New Hampshire Bucks the Establishment to Back Trump and Sanders (BBG)
  • Trump shows his U.S. presidential bid is no mere publicity stunt (Reuters)
  • Clinton Is Outdone by a Competitor Once Considered a Fringe Candidate (WSJ)
  • Deutsche Bank Jumps as Lender Said to Consider Bond Buyback (BBG)
  • Bank Executives Leading Surge of Insider Buying Amid Stock Rout (BBG)
  • Morgan Stanley Trading Executive Provides Grim Picture for Wall Street (WSJ)
  • Carlyle starts $200m share buyback as quarterly profits drop (FT)
  • Deutsche Bank's Short-Term Fix (BBG)
  • Russia's Biggest Oil Producer Skeptical on Output Deal With OPEC (BBG)
  • Credit Suisse chief says bank sector sell-off ‘not justified' (FT)
  • Turkish soldiers clash with Kurdish militants crossing from Syria (Reuters)
  • Nomura head blames SWFs for Japan sell-off (FT)
  • Supreme Court blocks Obama carbon emissions plan (Reuters)
  • No easy way out for Deutsche Bank as investors 'lose faith' (Reuters)
  • Dollar Bulls Await Yellen as Citigroup Says Pessimism May Reign (BBG)
  • Spain's Abengoa asks for loan of up to 750 mln euros (Reuters)
  • U.S., Russia Make Syria Diplomacy Push as Assad Gains Ground (BBG)
  • Pimco Boosts Government Debt as Treasuries Rally to Top Place (BBG)
  • U.S. 10-Year Sale's Lowest Yield Since 2012 May Diminish Demand (BBG)


Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

- Donald Trump seized his first victory in 2016, winning the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary by a decisive margin, while the rest of the party's presidential field was left as murky as ever. (http://on.wsj.com/1Wd3zhE)

- U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday temporarily blocked the Obama administration's initiative to limit carbon emissions from power plants, dealing an early and potentially significant blow to Obama's efforts in fighting climate change. (http://on.wsj.com/1TRiY8z)



- U.S. Federal health officials sent more Zika virus kits to test to the state of Florida, while Delaware, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Tennessee reported their first cases of the mosquito-borne virus. (http://on.wsj.com/1Wd2fez)

- Sumner Redstone's lawyers say he cut his former companion Manuela Herzer out of his will, depriving her of a $70 million inheritance, on the same October day that he removed her as his healthcare agent, according to court documents filed Tuesday.(http://on.wsj.com/1Wd5WAW)

- U.S. Patent and Trademark Office is gearing up to rule nearly 13 years after Coke first tried to register "zero" in the U.S., triggering a challenge from Dr Pepper Snapple Group , which also has a diet drink named Zero. (http://on.wsj.com/1Wd68jG)



FT

* Deutsche Bank AG is looking to buy back several billion euros worth of its debt in an effort to reverse the falling value of its securities and is expected to focus its emergency buyback plan on senior bonds, of which it has about 50 billion euros ($56.44 billion) in issue, according to the bank.

* European Union antitrust regulators are investigating several banks for possible rigging of the $1.5 trillion government-sponsored bond market and have sent questionnaires focusing on the price of supra-national, sub-sovereign and agency (SSA) debt to a number of market participants as part of an early stage investigation.

* Ministers are looking at launching a review of tidal power, with talks leading nowhere over government support for a proposed tidal lagoon in Swansea. DECC Officials will examine the potential for tidal energy across the UK in the review, to be announced on Wednesday.

* Channel 4 is to spend an additional 10 million pounds a year on films, as the broadcaster seeks to define its public service credentials in the face of government moves to privatise it.



NYT

- The turmoil engulfing Viacom deepened on Tuesday as weak earnings and concern over the company's leadership sent shares down more than 21 percent, the lowest level in more than five years. (http://nyti.ms/1oqxkRp)

- Speeding past Wall Street's expectations, Disney on Tuesday reported a 28 percent increase in quarterly profit, with the "Star Wars" franchise as the primary engine. (http://nyti.ms/20KcJZt)

- US Foods disclosed on Tuesday that it intended to go public, less than a year after its planned merger with a rival, Sysco, collapsed because of opposition from government regulators. (http://nyti.ms/23W2hgH)

- Barclays said on Tuesday that Paul H. Compton, who most recently served as JPMorgan's chief administrative officer, would join Barclays in May as chief operating officer. (http://nyti.ms/1TRoh7O)



Britain

The Times

Shepherd and Wedderburn has reported a bumper year for deal activity, after the law firm worked on transactions worth a total of 5.4 billion pounds ($7.81 billion), including some of the biggest takeovers and fundraisings in Scotland. (http://thetim.es/1TR6Pk3)

Jes Staley, the new Barclays Plc boss, has further enhanced his power base with another recruitment from JPMorgan Chase, his former employer. Paul Compton, who worked with Staley at the Wall Street bank, will join Barclays in May as chief operating officer, replacing Jonathan Moulds. (http://thetim.es/1TR7odt)

The Guardian

London black-cab drivers have rejected an apparent olive branch from Uber Technologies Inc as a "PR stunt" after the taxi-hailing app company said it would extend its service free to the traditional trade. (http://bit.ly/1TR5w4G)

British Airways is to launch services from Stansted this summer, the first time the flag carrier has operated from the airport. The airline will launch flights at weekends from May 28 to four holiday destinations- Faro, Malaga, Palma and Ibiza. (http://bit.ly/1TR5Hgi)

The Telegraph

The founder of easyJet Plc has accused the budget airline of taking a "scattergun" approach to dividends that confuses investors, ratcheting up the pressure on the carrier just days before its annual general meeting. (http://bit.ly/1TR7NNe)

UK's communications watchdog is investigating how Vodafone Group Plc handles customer complaints amid fears the telecoms giant could have mishandles disputes. (http://bit.ly/1TR7ZvN)

Sky News

Age UK says it is suspending its fixed-price energy deal with Big Six gas and electricity provider E.ON. The charity said the two-year fixed tariff would no longer be available for new and renewing customers. (http://bit.ly/1TR5kCk)

U.S. Internet tycoon Barry Diller is in advanced talks to sell PriceRunner, one of the first price comparison websites to allow British shoppers to select online deals from leading high street retailers. (http://bit.ly/1TR5rhh)

The Independent

Scotland would see its budget "systematically" reduced by almost 3 billion pounds ($4.34 billion) within 10 years under UK government's proposed devolution funding settlement, Nicola Sturgeon has said, as she acknowledged that time was running out to reach a deal. (http://ind.pn/1TR89Dn)


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-10/frontrunning-february-10
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#20
European Banks Soar On Rumor ECB May Monetize Bank Stocks; Japan Crash Continues


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/10/2016 07:01 -0500

While algos patiently await the only thing that matters for US stocks today which is Janet Yellen's testimony before Congress. expected to be released at 8:30 am (and previewed here), the rest of the world this morning is a hot mess of schizophrenic highs and lows.

One look at Asia this morning and it was more of the same: another deja vu session for Japan where the relentless surge in the Yen pressured the Nikkei lower by another 2.3%, pushing it down to 15713, to the lowest close since October 2014. The MSCI Asia index was likewise down 1.4% with all 10 sectors falling.

Europe, however, was a different story entirely: following yesterday's late afternoon FT "trial balloon" that Deutsche Bank would part with much needed liquidity to repurchase bonds in the open market (perhaps to indicate how unconcerned it is about the future), the German bank was up already over 4% in the premarket, and then proceeded to absolutely explode, soaring as much as 15% higher, up 13.15% at last check in Frankfurt, on what is likely a combination of short covering and a rumor which hit about an hour ago, when a German newsletter reported that the ECB could buy bank stocks as part of its QE.

We would be very surprised if in a world in which central bankers are being openly called out by markets that their bags of tricks are empty, the ECB were to actually do that, but we doubt the ECB has any intention of actually buying bank stocks: if anything, intention is far simpler - to slow down the relentless selling in Europe's most systematically important bank, which between the FT trial balloon and today's rumor, it has achieved... for now.

Also as a result, following 8 brutal days of carnage which sent European stocks to the lowest level since October 2013,Europe is solidly in the green, with the Stoxx up 2.3% the same as the Dax, however nothing compares to the European banking sector which as shown in the chart from Mark Barton below, is quite literally all green: not a single bank in Europe is in the red this morning.





We expect that today's volatile European bank euphoria will be brief if not validated by concerte actions, because while central banks have the luxury of jawboning, commercial banks are actually burning through funds - rapidly at that - and don't have the luxury of hoping for the best while doing nothing.

Which brings us back to Yellen's testimony, which Jim Reid previews as follows: "Yellen can give the market hope today that the committee is acknowledging the worrying signs from both financial markets and the global economy and take a step closer to a cleaner dovish stance. That would certainly help if for no other reason than it would halt the dollar bull market (notwithstanding the recent sell-off) which has caused problems with commodities, EM, China and encouraged shrinking global dollar liquidity. However we won't get such a turnaround in one speech. If it happens it's likely to be a multi month story."

Alternatively, she can just as easily send stocks reeling with one word out of place.

We will find out shortly which word she picks. For the time being, here is where markets stand right now.

  • S&P 500 futures up 1.0% to 1867
  • Stoxx 600 up 2.3% to 316.4
  • FTSE 100 up 1.3% to 5708
  • DAX up 2.4% to 9091
  • German 10Yr yield up 3bps to 0.26%
  • Italian 10Yr yield down 8bps to 1.6%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield down 7bps to 1.69%
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 1.4% to 117
  • Nikkei 225 down 2.3% to 15713
  • S&P/ASX 200 down 1.2% to 4776
  • US 10-yr yield up 3bps to 1.76%
  • Dollar Index up 0.15% to 96.21
  • WTI Crude futures up 1.8% to $28.45
  • Brent Futures up 1.7% to $30.84
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,184
  • Silver spot down 0.7% to $15.14
Top Global News

  • New Hampshire Bucks the Establishment to Back Trump and Sanders: Biggest loser of the night was Hillary Clinton, who won the state in 2008; Clinton’s Loss to Sanders Exposes Weakness of Message—and Messenger; Christie Reevaluates Bid After Poor New Hampshire Showing
  • Deutsche Bank Said in Early Stages of Mulling Bond Buyback: Shares gain most in more than 4 years
  • U.S., Russia Make Syria Cease-Fire Push as Assad Regains Ground: Kerry, Lavrov among 17 diplomats to hold talks in Munich
  • Renzi Says EU Can Dodge Titanic Disaster Following Italy’s Lead: EU leaders like band playing as doomed liner sank, Renzi says in interview
  • How Low Can Central Banks Go? JPMorgan Reckons Way, Way Lower: Says ECB could cut to -4.5% and Fed to -1.3%
  • Oil Snaps 4-Day Losing Streak as Crude Producers Cut Spending: Rebounds from lowest close in almost three weeks
  • Goldman Sachs Abandons Five of Six ‘Top Trade’ Calls for 2016: Closes bet on dollar strength versus euro, yen
  • KKR-Backed US Foods Files for Initial Public Offering: co. filed initial prospectus Tuesday with offering size of $100m
  • BTG Said to Plan Granting Equity to Traders at Commodities Unit: Deal aimed at keeping staff as bank recovers from CEO arrest
  • Disney Shares Sink as Lower ESPN Profit Overshadows ‘Star Wars’: Programming costs, subscriber losses, dollar hit sports network
  • Google’s Self-Driving Car Software Seen as Driver by U.S. Agency: NHTSA interpretation contrasts with California’s push-back
  • FTSE 100 Profits Shrink by GBP29b in 2015, Seen Falling Further: U.K. profits set to drop further 5.3% in 2016, Bloomberg data shows
  • Kim Purges North Korea’s Military Chief of Staff, Yonhap Says: Ri Yong Gil executed early this month on corruption charges
Looking at regional markets reveals two different worlds: in Asia, the plummet equities saw no respite as they extended on yesterday's losses following the lacklustre close on Wall St, alongside concerns over the banking sector. As such, Nikkei 225 (-2.3%) continued to take a hammering, subsequently paring the entirety of its gains since the BoJ QQE expansion in Oct'14 amid the persistent JPY strength, coupled with weakness in Tech heavyweight KDDI (-7.4%) after their earnings. ASX 200 (-1.2%) showed no signs of a resurgence having entered into a bear market territory with pressure coming from energy names. Despite the risk off sentiment, JGBs slipped in Asian trade with touted profit taking after yesterday's stellar gains, whilst 20yr JGBs continued the recent record-breaking strike as yields fell to 0.075%.

Top Asian News:

  • Nissan Profit Beats Estimates as Rogue Paces U.S. Sales Rise: U.S. sales of the Rogue crossover surged 44% last year
  • Coal Trader Seeing Rebound Hunts for Bargains in Troubled Mines: Javelin Global Commodities Holdings, run by ex- Goldman traders sees recovery in 2017
  • Yen Gains Sideline Kuroda as Volatility Sweeps Rates Shock Aside: Options protecting against yen gains cost most in over 5 yrs
  • Behind China’s $720 Million Bet on British Tech Startups: Cocoon Networks plans London incubator for tech, biotech
In Europe, on the other hand, it has been a surge from the beginning on the back of the soaring banking sector were as noted earlier, not a single bank is red today following speculation the ECB may monetize bank shares in the next QE. Sure enough, after the heavy selling seen in yesterday's trade, this morning sees equities reside in positive territory to pare back some of the recent losses (Euro Stoxx: +2.8%). Banking names remain in focus, with Deutsche Bank (+12.7%) outperforming today after source reports suggesting the bank is considering a bond buyback. The latest Deutsche Bank news has seen a broad based recovery in credit metrics in Europe, with the exception of Credit Suisse CDS rates, which are actually higher this morning. Gains in equities have been capped by the energy sector, with energy names lagging as a result of the continued subdued oil prices, with WTI Mar'16 futures remaining firmly below USD 29.00/bbl despite a smaller than anticipated build.

European Top News:

  • Opera to Be Sold to Chinese Tech Companies for $1.2b: 71 kroner/shr cash tender offer at 46% premium to latest close
  • Maersk Profit Plunges as Oil, Container Units Both Suffer: reports 2015 net income $791m vs $5.02b in 2014; est. $3.7b
  • Heineken, Carlsberg Forecast Profit Gains as Asia Sales Rise: Vietnam, Southeast Asia growth offsetting weak China, Russia
  • Hermes Says 2016 Sales Growth May Fall Short of Mid-Term Target: Cites global economic, geopolitical, monetary uncertainties
  • James Bond, Star Wars Studio Pinewood Puts Itself Up for Sale: Rothschild hired to conduct a strategic review of company
  • Telenor Earnings Fall Short Amid Norway Wireless Competition: Margin forecast for 2016 also trails analysts’ estimates
  • Daimler Sees $384 Million Expense for Takata Air-Bag Recall: xpense cuts net income to EU8.7b for 2015
  • ARM 4Q Sales Beat Ests., Sees 2016 Revenue ‘Broadly In Line’: says enters 2016 with robust opportunity pipeline for licensing
In FX, a banking sector recovery has led to the near term relief in global stocks to lend a period of calm. The familiar FX correlations have followed through as a result, though USD/JPY looks to be lagging, but this is down to the dovish expectations of Fed Chair Yellen's semi-annual testimony due later today. 115.00+ is proving a struggle, so positive risk sentiment preferred through Ccy/USD elsewhere, with AUD and NZD notable gainers. GBP brushed off the weak Q4 manufacturing numbers, as the ONS stated this would have less than a 0.1 % impact on GDP. Cable struggling on a 1.4500 handle, but supported for now. EUR crosses have come right back down again — including GBP — and this has pulled EUR/USD back into the mid 1.1200's, which is also in line with the risk scenario at present. CAD well contained as Oil prices stabilise post API last night.

In commodities, WTI and Crude have steadily risen in the European session as a result of more comments from Iran about cooperating with Saudi Arabia regarding oil output. Furthermore, the latest API crude oil inventory report produced a build of 2.4mln which was below expectations of a 3.6mln build and below today's DoE expected build of 2.85m1n.

Overnight gold traded range bound failing to benefit from further risk off sentiment in Asia. The yellow metal has enjoyed its best start to the year since 1980, but could be set to drop according to some analysts, as Chinese purchases that ramped up prior to the Lunar New Year, slow down. This comes after a rather bearish note from Goldman Sachs yesterday, who said they see prices falling to USD 1,000 by year end, citing fed rate hikes. In the short term at least, prices will be dictated by the fed, given Chair Yeliens semi-annual testimony later on today. The market has priced in a dovish testimony, with some saying she will er on the side of 2 rate hikes this year. Should she surprise to the hawkish side we could see dovish USD bets unwinding and this will ultimately drive the price gold.

Elsewhere in the metals complex, copper, which also received a bearish note from Goldman yesterday, has declined an is one of the worst performers on the LME, following the news that Freepoort McMoRan have been granted new permits from Indonesia. The company's Grasberg mine in the country is the world second largest on terms of capacity, consequently the markets expect the glut to swell further. LME zinc outperforms, continuing to benefit from a bullish note by Goldman.

On today's US calendar, the only thing that will matter will be Yellen’s semi-annual testimony to the House Financial Services Panel delivered at 10:00 however her speech will be out at 8:30 am. We’ll also hear from the Fed’s Williams later this evening (due at 6.30pm GMT). Earnings wise we’ve got 18 S&P 500 companies set to report including Cisco and Time Warner.



Bulletin Headline Summary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk

  • Deutsche Bank (+12.7%) are outperforming today after source reports suggesting the bank is considering a bond buyback
  • The banking sector recovery has led to the near term relief in global stocks and consequently lent a period of calm to FX markets
  • Looking ahead, the standout event through the rest of the session will be any comments from Fed's Yellen at her semi-annual testimony to congress. Participants will also be looking out for the latest OPEC reports and DoE crude oil inventories as well as comments from ECB's Praet and Hansson
  • Treasuries lower in overnight trading as European equities rally, led by bank stocks, ahead of Yellen’s testimony before House Financial Services Committee at 10am ET, remarks to be released at 8:30am; Treasury to sell $23b U.S. 10Y notes, WI 1.765% vs 2.09% in Jan.
  • Deutsche Bank shares jumped the most in more than four years as Germany’s biggest bank is considering a bond buyback to help ease concerns about its funds, according to a person with knowledge of the matter
  • Financial firms will have an additional year to comply with MiFID II, the overhaul of European Union market rules covering everything from derivatives trading to bond pricing. The deadline has been moved forward to Jan. 3, 2018
  • 699 officers and directors of American companies purchased their own stock in the last 30 days compared with 828 who sold, the most bullish ratio in more than four years, according to data compiled by The Washington Service and Bloomberg
  • The cost of insuring the bonds of State Bank of India is surging before the nation’s largest lender reports quarterly earnings on Thursday amid concern over worsening asset quality
  • U.K. industrial production plunged 1.1% m/m in December, more than economists forecast, capping its worst quarterly performance in almost three years, the Office for National Statistics said in London on Wednesday
  • Italian industrial production unexpectedly plunged in December, down 0.7% m/m, signaling that the recovery in the euro region’s third-biggest economy probably slowed in the last quarter of 2015 and might struggle to continue in coming months
  • Recent U.S. labor-market data shows persistent hiring, near- record job openings, and growing confidence among workers that they can quit their jobs with the prospect of easily finding another one
  • No IG corporates (YTD volume $181.575b) and no HY (YTD volume $9.275b) priced yesterday
US Event Calendar

  • 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Feb. 5 (prior -2.6%)
  • 2:00pm: Monthly Budget Statement, Jan., est. $47.5b (prior -$17.5b)
  • 8:30am: Yellen’s prepared remarks to House committee released
  • 10:00am: Fed’s Yellen testifies to House committee
  • 1:00pm: U.S. to sell $23b 10Y notes
  • 1:30pm: Fed’s Williams speaks in Los Angeles
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Can Yellen help create peace today in a market in full battle mode? She is set to deliver her semi-annual testimony to the House Financial Services Committee today at 3.00pm GMT (although her prepared remarks may be released earlier) before answering questions from lawmakers. It’s likely that much of what she says today will be repeated in her speech tomorrow at the same time to the Senate, with only the Q&A sessions different.

We clearly have long thought that any rate rise in this cycle is a policy error given our growth and financial system concerns but the Fed are probably nowhere near to acknowledging that they are now on hold for an indefinite period. Yellen can however give the market hope today that the committee is acknowledging the worrying signs from both financial markets and the global economy and take a step closer to a cleaner dovish stance. That would certainly help if for no other reason than it would halt the dollar bull market (notwithstanding the recent sell-off) which has caused problems with commodities, EM, China and encouraged shrinking global dollar liquidity. However we won't get such a turnaround in one speech. If it happens it's likely to be a multi month story.

Meanwhile European banks continue to feel the full force of the latest leg of this sell-off with the Stoxx 600 closing down -1.58% yesterday and to the lowest level since October 2013. Peripheral banks were the hardest hit and that saw equity markets in Italy, Spain and Greece tumble -3.21%, -2.39% and -2.89% respectively. In fairness yet another sharp leg down for Oil (WTI closing -5.89% at $27.94/bbl) also more than played its part. Interestingly it was a much better day for European credit markets. With much of the commentary suggesting that Monday’s moves were overdone yesterday we saw the iTraxx senior and sub indices tighten 5bps and 7.5bps respectively. That helped Main close 2bps tighter and Crossover finish more or less unchanged.

Whilst the profitability outlook for European financials remains highly uncertain, a personal view is that the credit risk has been exaggerated in recent days. The ECB still has numerous facilities that banks can use to prevent liquidity concerns. Having said this even if the market is wrong on this, a mistaken sell-off can lead to self fulfilling problems in a sector like financials. If stress continues then as a minimum bank lending that has recently helped European growth could easily suffer which in turn would weaken the operating environment for banks - and all because of a sell-off that was sentiment driven. Banks are often a confidence play and there isn't much of it around at the moment. One wonders what the ECB could possibly do at their March 10th meeting to enhance such an elusive commodity. At some point soon the market will start discussing this as surely it's not in the ECB's interest to see such destabilising focus on what are transmitters of their policy through the economy.

Volatility was the name of the game again for US equity markets yesterday. After trading as much as 1% lower in early trading and then as high as +0.7% in late trading the index eventually finished more or less unchanged (-0.07%) although the tone for the most part felt distinctly negative with the VIX up again (+2%) and closing above 20 for the seventh consecutive session. US credit indices staged a similar roundabout performance while US Treasury yields extended their march lower. 10y Treasuries eventually closed 2.2bps lower at 1.727% but did in fact dip as low as 1.680% which was close to the testing the low print we made around this time last year (1.665%).

It’s a familiar start for markets in Asia (for those open) this morning. Equity bourses in Japan have extended yesterday’s steep losses with the Nikkei and Topix both down close to 3.5%. In Australia the ASX is currently -1.17% although it has pared earlier steep losses but still sits on the verge of dipping into bear market territory. US equity futures are down close to half a percent despite an early 2% bounce for WTI to back above $28/bbl. Much like European markets yesterday its credit markets which are outperforming. The iTraxx Australia is currently 2bps tighter and iTraxx Japan 3bps tighter.

Meanwhile, over in the US the New Hampshire primary results have started filtering through this morning. According to FT, in the Democrat race and with 60% of the ballots currently counted for Sanders has a 59%-39% lead over Clinton (who has since conceded victory in the state), while in the Republican race Trump has secured 34% of the overall vote and is leading with Ohio Governor, John Kasich, coming in second place with 16% with Cruz (12%), Rubio and Bush (both 11%) closely behind. Eyebrows may be raised at the success of these two extreme candidates yesterday but there is still a long way to go.

As expected the data out of the US JOLTS job opening report yesterday shone a positive light on the US labour market. Job openings rose a better than expected 261k in December to 5.61m (vs. 5.41m expected) and to the second highest level on record. In the details the quits rate nudged up one-tenth to 2.1% and to the highest since April 2008. The hiring rate was unchanged at 3.7%. Meanwhile the NFIB small business optimism print was down 1.3pts to 93.9 (vs. 94.5 expected) and wholesale inventories (-0.1% mom vs. -0.2% expected) and trade sales (-0.3% mom vs. -0.4% expected) were down a little less than expected in December. With markets getting smacked from all angles, just to confuse matters the Atlanta Fed upgraded their Q1 GDP forecast again yesterday following the wholesale trade report. They now forecast GDP growth of 2.5% (up from 2.2%).

The other notable dataflow yesterday was out of Germany where the most significant was an unexpected drop in industrial production in December (-1.2% mom vs. +0.5% expected and the biggest monthly decline since August 2014), which has helped to push the YoY rate now down to -2.2% from +0.1%. Also underperforming relative to expectations was the latest trade data where exports in particular slid -1.6% mom in December (relative to expectations for a +0.5% gain). A bigger than expected decline in imports however did see the trade surplus shrink. As our colleagues in Europe pointed out, the latest data clearly poses downside risks ahead for Friday’s Q4 GDP release. That said, turnover data, new orders and capacity utilization data does suggest that December data somewhat overstates the weakness and that the Q1 outlook for production is not threatened. Still, growth looks ever further tilted towards domestic demand.

In terms of the day ahead, this morning in Europe the main releases of note are the next slug of industrial production reports where we’ll get the readings for the UK, France and Italy. Datawise in the US this afternoon we’ll get the January Monthly Budget Statement but expect that to be secondary to Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual testimony to the House Financial Services Panel at 3.00pm GMT. We’ll also hear from the Fed’s Williams later this evening (due at 6.30pm GMT). Earnings wise we’ve got 18 S&P 500 companies set to report including Cisco and Time Warner.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...soar-speculation-ecb-may-monetize-bank-shares
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#21
Bob, I got a bad feeling on this one.


Submitted by hedgeless_horseman on 02/09/2016 11:40 -050

"Bob, I got a bad feeling on this one.
All right?
I mean I got a bad feeling!
I don't think I'm gonna make it outta here!
D'ya understand
what I'm sayin' to you?"


The global markets are clearly in turmoil...again. I thought I would start a quasi-open thread here on ZH, where we can ask questions and share concerns or strategies with one another.

So, like my asteroid article from last year, let's have a little more fun, and use this as a test of our financial-armageddon preparedness.

First, a definition or two...



The normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster and its possible effects. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare and, on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations.



The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred, it never will occur. It can result in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.



The opposite of normalcy bias would be overreaction, or "worst-case thinking" bias,in which small deviations from normality are dealt with as signaling an impending catastrophe.



Our "worst-case thinking" test scenario is that we have a repeat of 2008, only an order of magnitude worse, and this time it is truly global, with no markets or fiat currency unaffected. The trigger is that at 4:00 pm Eastern, today, a coordinated revolutionary attack destroys the FRBNY, BIS, BofJ, and the BofE. The banks and markets simply do not re-open.

Let's start by having everyone answer four questions:

1) Are you at all prepared to survive even one month without ANY financial intermediaries?
2) What is one immediate action you would take, NOW, to improve your chances?
3) Are you going to stay put, or likely need to go somewhere?
4) What is your single biggest knowledge gap?

As a reminder...



Acknowledge that nobody really knows if, what, when, or how anything in the future is going to happen...it is all just speculation. Finally, always remember that, "on a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero," so don't get too worked up, or go into debt, just because of this little exercise in paranoia.

BONUS: If you answered no to question one, have you considered that you may be betting your life on a bunch of bankers?


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-09/bob-i-got-bad-feeling-one
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#24
Peter Schiff: Gold Price is Going to Skyrocket - Going to Smell Blood
Greg Hunter


Published on Feb 10, 2016
Financial expert Peter Schiff gives a gold update and says, “The price of gold is going to skyrocket, and it’s going to go up so much more than this because we are just getting started. What is really going to power the rise is not only are we going into a recession in the U.S., but it’s going to be an inflationary recession. When the dollar tanks, because the Fed doesn’t raise rates, then consumer prices are going to take off, and they’re going to rise so rapidly there is going to be no way the government is going to be able to hide them. . . . We are going to start to see inflation rates, annual inflation rates well north of the Fed’s 2% target level. They are not going to do anything to rein in inflation because it’s impossible. Gold is going to sense this. It’s going to smell blood. You’ve got a lot of people who are shorting the gold market. They are going to get crushed.”

On CNBC and his guest appearances, Schiff says, “CNBC used to have me on all the time before the 2008 financial crisis. Even though they thought I was saying all kinds of things they thought were crazy, they had me on just to be balanced. No one knew who I was, and I was saying all these outrageous things, but ever since all the outrageous things came true, they barely have me on—ever. I make their other guests look like fools. I make the announcers look like fools, and that’s the problem. . . .
You would think they would care about their audience, but I think they care more about their advertisers and their other guests that want to shill Wall Street products.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Peter Schiff, President and Founder of both Euro Pacific Capital and Schiff Gold.

(There is much more in the video interview. There is a lip sync problem that was unavoidable during the recording process. Please watch and listen anyway because the content is illuminating.)




All links mentioned can be found on USAWatchdog.com: http://usawatchdog.com/gold-will-smel...
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#26

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#27
Frontrunning: February 11


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/11/2016 07:52 -0500

  • Gold Roars to One-Year High as Turmoil Drives Safe Haven Demand (BBG)
  • Banking Stocks Pummeled in Europe (WSJ)
  • Dollar, stocks plunge sparks scramble for safety (Reuters)
  • Nymex Crude Slips Below $27 a Barrel (WSJ)
  • No Respite for S&P 500 as U.S. Stock Futures Join Global Selloff (BBG)
  • Walgreens Threatens to End Theranos Agreement (WSJ)
  • Next Task for Clinton, Sanders: Securing the Minority Vote (WSJ)
  • Yen Advances to 15-Month High as Korean Tensions Stoke Haven Bid (BBG)
  • Meet the Man Who Helps Trump Be Trump (WSJ)
  • FBI tightens grip on final occupiers at Oregon wildlife refuge (Reuters)
  • SocGen Slumps as Quarterly Profit Hurt by Securities Drop (BBG)
  • HSBC CEO Gulliver Said to End Pay Freeze After Staff Revolt (BBG)
  • Donors urge Clinton to sharpen message ahead of debate with Sanders (Reuters)
  • Dark Pools' Market Share Drops for First Time in Europe: Chart (BBG)
  • Russia says U.S. planes bombed Syria's Aleppo on Wednesday (Reuters)
  • Benghazi Panel Nears Final Report Examining Clinton's Response (BBG)


Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

- Theranos' main retail partner Walgreens threatened to terminate its relationship with the blood-testing company unless it quickly fixes the problems found by federal inspectors at a laboratory in California, people familiar with the matter said. (http://on.wsj.com/1QsIXxI)

- Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen hinted to Congress Wednesday that the central bank had increased trepidation over the path of interest-rate increases, pointing to accumulating risks to the economy in recent weeks.(http://on.wsj.com/1QsJ1NK)

- Twitter for the first time failed to show any user growth in an earnings report, pushing its shares to new lows and fueling investor anxiety that the company doesn't have a turnaround plan.(http://on.wsj.com/1QsJ6kF)

- Bernie Sanders' resounding New Hampshire victory over Hillary Clinton, facing the twin questions of whether his appeal is broad enough to replicate his performance elsewhere, and whether her support is strong enough to reverse the tide.(http://on.wsj.com/1Si1XEY)

- A top North Korean general was executed this month after being charged with corruption, the latest in a series of purges by leader Kim Jong Un, according to South Korean intelligence officials. (http://on.wsj.com/1Si8LCs)



FT

* Worldpay Group Plc is launching into Canada partnering with Peoples Trust Company, which gives Worldpay a domestic licence for its customers to accept card payments in Canada. It looks to replicate this deal with other customers that it has previously been unable to serve in Canada.

* Four cases of Zika have been reported in the UK since January and the number is likely to rise as travellers return from endemic areas of Latin America. Public health officials said seven UK cases had been diagnosed in the past three years and most had occurred since the start of 2016 as the virus.

* BP Plc said oil producers in the United States will recover from the collapse in crude oil prices and pump millions of barrels a day more over the next two decades even though there is resilient growth in energy demand.

* According to official data, productivity in NHS hospitals has fallen for the third year now. This will now intensify the debate over whether the service can survive without more funding.



NYT

- The U.S. Supreme Court's surprise decision Tuesday to halt the carrying out of President Obama's climate change regulation could weaken or even imperil the international global warming accord reached with great ceremony in Paris less than two months ago, climate diplomats say. (http://nyti.ms/20WMGea)

- On Wednesday, after many quarters of slowing user growth, Twitter said its monthly visitors in the fourth quarter totaled 320 million - exactly the same as the company reported in the previous quarter. While the number was up 9 percent from a year ago, when monthly active users stood at 288 million, the figures showed that Jack Dorsey's recent moves have made little impact in attracting users. (http://nyti.ms/20WCX7I)

- The Fed chairwoman, Janet Yellen, testifying before Congress, reiterated the central bank's gradual approach to interest-rate increases. (http://nyti.ms/1ott9UW)

- The federal judge overseeing hundreds of claims against General Motors related to a defective ignition switch has rejected an effort to replace Robert C. Hilliard, one of the lead plaintiffs' lawyers on the case. (http://nyti.ms/1mtVbhu)

- HBO's stand-alone video streaming service has attracted about 800,000 paying subscribers since starting last April, the premium cable network said Wednesday, the first time it has disclosed numbers for the service. (http://nyti.ms/1PEfJvP)



Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Canada has competitive advantages when it comes to car manufacturing, but falls short in marketing itself and needs to change a key element of the incentive package offered to global auto makers, says Ray Tanguay, the special auto adviser to the federal and Ontario governments. (http://bit.ly/23YCCnw)

** Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd CEO Hunter Harrison has signalled he will abandon his four-month push to form North America's biggest railway if Norfolk Southern Corp shareholders reject his latest move. (http://bit.ly/1XkRl7C)

** Pacific NorthWest LNG's project in British Columbia would likely harm harbour porpoises and contribute to climate change, but the export terminal could be built and operated without causing major ecological damage, the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency has ruled. (http://bit.ly/1V5TD9i)

NATIONAL POST

** Hudson's Bay Co could be bulking up even further. The Toronto-based owner of Saks Fifth Ave. and Lord & Taylor is in the running to buy bankrupt department store chain V&D of the Netherlands, according to multiple Dutch media reports. (http://bit.ly/1SJXco5)

** Canada's second-largest dairy producer, the farmer-owned Agropur Cooperative, says it sees the company's growth not here in the country, where it has defended the protectionist supply-management system when threatened with free-trade deals, but in the U.S. where it can import to international markets including north of the border. (http://bit.ly/1PnEMoZ)

** Canada's Superintendent of Financial Institutions has taken temporary control of the assets of the Canadian branch of Maple Bank GmbH, which is headquartered in Germany. (http://bit.ly/1Ta1rYD)



Britain

The Times

The Bank of England and Paul Tucker have been drawn back into the Libor scandal amid claims that Barclays Plc used what it believed was a confidential instruction from a former deputy governor to lower rates to buy billions of pounds of debt in rival British lenders at the height of the financial crisis. (http://thetim.es/1QsvC8A)

HSBC Holdings Plc's directors will meet on Sunday to decide whether to continue to base the bank's headquarters in London or move abroad, with an announcement on the eagerly awaited question likely to be made that day. (http://thetim.es/1QsvE00)

The Guardian

BP Plc has predicted a bright future for the oil and gas industry with crude prices spiking at $100 a barrel again, huge increases in shale output and new production from Canadian tar sands. (http://bit.ly/1QsvLsC)

Mark Price, managing director of Waitrose, is to be made a Foreign Office trade minister as David Cameron continues to try and bring more businesspeople into his government. (http://bit.ly/1Qsw8Ds)

The Telegraph

Johnston Press is in advanced talks with the Lebedev family to buy the i newspaper in a deal that will raise questions over the future of its stable mate, The Independent. It is understood both sides are brokering the sale of the tabloid, with talks expected to run into the night. (http://bit.ly/1Qswqu5)

The Telegraph understands the Competition and Markets Authority, the consumer regulator, is finalising plans to take action against Britain's biggest supermarkets, which stand accused of using unlawful pricing and promotional practices, designed to encourage customers to spend more. (http://bit.ly/1QswxWG)

Sky News

Sky News understands that Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc is working with bankers at Lazard to examine options for its 3 billion pounds ($4.37 billion) shipping finance operation, which could be run off, sold or hived off in chunks to potential buyers (http://bit.ly/1QrWMMP)

The UK is blocking a European rule change that could help combat the flood of cheap Chinese imports that is crippling the steel industry, Business Secretary Sajid Javid has admitted. (http://bit.ly/1QswASe)

The Independent

The fashion giant Gap Inc is the latest U.S. household name to face major questions over its use of complex financial engineering that minimises its tax bill in Britain. The multinational retailer has paid almost no corporation tax - once rebates are taken into account - since 2011 despite sales of more than 1 billion pounds, according to a new analysis of its "opaque" accounts. (http://ind.pn/1QswSIK)


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-11/frontrunning-february-11
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#28
Markets Around The World Are Crashing; Gold Soars


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/11/2016 06:56 -0500


Yesterday morning, when musing on the day's key event namely Yellen's congressional testimony, we dismissed the most recent bout of European bank euphoria which we said "will be brief if not validated by concrete actions, because while central banks have the luxury of jawboning, commercial banks are actually burning through funds - rapidly at that - and don't have the luxury of hoping for the best while doing nothing." This morning DB has wiped out all of yesterday's gain.

As for Yellen's testimony, we said that "she can send stocks reeling with one word out of place" - the word in question being not what she said but what she didn't say, in this case not being dovish enough and thus supportive enough of risk. And the consequence is there for all to see as soon as their trading terminal boots up: everything is crashing (with the exception of China which is on holiday, and Japan which was mercifully closed yesterday). Here are the highlights:

  • S&P 500 futures down 1.8% to 1814
  • Stoxx 600 down 3.4% to 304
  • FTSE 100 down 2.6% to 5525
  • DAX down 2.9% to 8760
  • German 10Yr yield down 7bps to 0.18%
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.1% to 117
  • Hang Seng down 3.8% to 18546
  • S&P/ASX 200 up 1% to 4821
  • US 10-yr yield down 5bps to 1.62%
  • Dollar Index down 0.42% to 95.49
  • WTI Crude futures down 2.9% to $26.65
  • Brent Futures down 1.7% to $30.31
  • Gold spot up 1.9% to $1,220
  • Silver spot up 1.5% to $15.50
It all started in Hong Kong where as we reported last night, the Hang Seng Index plunged 3.9%, catching up with the week’s selloff as the market reopened from a holiday, and capping its worst Lunar New Year start since 1994.

Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average and China’s Shanghai Composite Index were both closed, but investors continued to pile into the yen, as virtually every carry trade has fallen apart in the past month. As a result, the dollar was down 1.8% against the yen at ¥111.28 after sliding below 111 briefly, a massive gain of nearly 300 pips in the past 24 hours, sending the Yen to the lowest level since October 2014 when Kuroda expanded QE.





In the first 9 days of this month, the Yen has risen 985 pips: That is biggest advance, in pip terms, since Oct. 1998; that month, the currency rose 1,563 pips from 130.03 to 114.40 over nine trading days ended Oct. 19. Elsewhere, the euro was up 0.4% against the dollar at $1.1325, its highest since October.

It wasn't just FX: European stocks slid toward their lowest since September 2013 and U.S. futures indicated equities will open nearly 2% and put the recent support level of 1812 in danger of being breached.

Among the key European movers was Societe Generale which tumbled 12% after reporting that quarterly profit missed estimates as earnings at the investment bank fell and it set aside provisions for potential legal costs. Elsewhere, Rio Tinto Group slipped 4.1% as it scrapped its progressive dividend policy and set out new spending cuts.

“Financial markets are repricing for a global growth slowdown,” said Tim Condon, head of Asian research at ING Groep NV in Singapore. "Expectations that monetary policy would be able to do much have diminished considerably.”

Just as troubling is that Swedish shares slid and the OMX Stockholm 30 Index dropped 3.% despite Sweden’s central bank going even deeper into NIRP, cutting its interest rate from -0.35% to -0.5%, lower than the expected -0.45%. The yen leaped to its highest in more than a year. Major sovereign bond markets rallied, pushing U.K. gilt yields to a record low. Gold rose beyond $1,200 an ounce, while U.S. oil traded below $27 a barrel.

This is troubling, because as Bloomberg notes, "signals by central banks from Europe to Japan that additional stimulus is at the ready are failing to ease investor concern that global growth will keep slowing." This means that it is no longer just a joke that central banks are losing credibility: judging by the markets' reaction it is all too real. To this point, yesterday we wondered if Yellen will make bad news good news again. She has failed:

“Over the last few years when we got bad news, equity markets would rally because they would interpret this as potential for central banks to go more dovish,” said Mohit Kumar, head of rates strategy at Credit Agricole SA’s corporate and investment bank unit in London. “Now that correlation is shifting to bad news is actually bad news. Investors are concerned over central banks’ policy options given the market is driven by factors over which they have little or no control over.”

Imagine that: investors investing without a central bank to hold their hand.

Among other things crashing: bond yields - the 10Year plunged to 1.62%, the lowest level since May 2013 as the entire treasury complex prepares for NIRP.

Not everything was crashing however: as central planners lost control, the dull, boring yellow metal known as gold was up about 4% overnight and was trading at $1240 moments ago, well above the level it hit when the Fed ended QE3, and outperforming every asset class in that time period.



Also surging are peripheral European yields, most notably in Portugal and Greece both overf 30 bps wider, as suddenly 7 years of financial dirt kicked under the rug thanks to central bank jawboning and futile actions, re-emerges for all to see, and to be reminded that nothing was ever fixed!

In short, the market is threatening Yellen with a crash ahead of her 2nd testimony today this time before the Senate. We doubt she will comply, so the market will just have to try harder.

Here are the top news from overnight:

  • Yellen Suggests Fed May Delay Rate Rises, Not Abandon Them: Fed chair non-committal on possible use of negative rates
  • Assessing Yellen’s Warning That Markets Pose a Threat to Economy: Bear markets usually come ~9 months before recessions
  • Mylan Slumps, Meda Soars on $7.2 Billion ‘Wealth Destroying’ Bid: Price represents a 92% premium to Meda’s close on Wednesday
  • Sanders Raises $7.1 Million After New Hampshire Win: comes after Tuesday’s victory speech declaration that he was “going to hold a fundraiser right here, right now, across America”
  • Clinton Reassesses Campaign With Thursday Debate Next Test: New Hampshire margin for Sanders puts Clinton on defensive
  • Twitter Troubles Deepen as Lack of User Growth Threatens Sales: Dorsey says making product easier to use is top priority
  • Amazon to Repurchase as Much as $5 Billion of Its Own Shares: co. commented in filing yday
  • U.K. Bond Yield Drops to Record-Low as Investors Seek Safety: U.K. plans to auction 30-year securities later Thursday
  • Swedish Central Bank Unleashes More Stimulus After Krona Warning: Sees scope to cut repo rate further
  • ‘Brexit’ Vote Is Clouding U.K.’s Growth Outlook, CBI Says: Business lobby downgrades 2016 growth forecast to 2.3%
  • Gold Soars Above $1,200 as Fed Chief Signals Go-Slow on Rates: set for 9th gain in 10 days on Fed chief’s remarks
  • Oil Above $55 Is a Long-Term Inevitability, Maersk CEO Says: sees global demand pushing oil price higher over time
  • Worst Still Ahead for Mining Industry After Losing $1.4 Trillion: This year looks even worse for an industry decimated by the commodities slump
  • SocGen Slumps as Quarterly Profit Hurt by Securities Drop: Bank says ROE target for this year of 10% is ‘unconfirmed’
  • As Zika Spreads, an Unexpected Winner in Brazil’s Mosquito War: Scandal-plagued leader Rousseff seeks unity to fight virus
In today's closer look at regional markets, we start in Asia, where equities traded broadly in negative territory amid the soft lead on Wall Street, coupled with the persistent credit risk fears adding to the risk-off sentiment. As such, the iTraxx Asia index ex Japan, an index tracking the value of CDS's in Asia, widened by 6bps to the highest level since Aug'13. The Hang Seng (-3.9%) returned from its elongated break to play catch up with the recent global equity and oil rout, consequently energy names were the notable laggard. While South Korea had also entered the fray as the Kospi (-2.5%) slipped amid the rising geopolitical tensions with North Korea after launching a satellite into space. ASX 200 (+1.0%) bucked the trend with stocks supported by a slew of strong earnings. As a reminder, Japanese markets were closed due to National Foundation Day.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Stocks Fall in Worst Start to Lunar New Year Since ’94: Global equity rout deepens during 3-day trading break
  • Bass Says China Bank Losses May Top 400% of Subprime Crisis: Hedge fund manager says 10% asset loss would cut equity by $3.5t
  • Rio Will Cut Dividend After Metals Rout Sees Profit Tumble: World’s 2nd-biggest mining co. to reduce spending by another $3b
  • Billionaire’s Fund Sees India Extending Bear-Market Losses: Hedge fund awaits further 10% drop in values to turn bullish
  • SBI’s Profit Growth Slows to Four-Year Low on Bad Loan Surge: Provisions for bad loans almost double in the December quarter
  • North Korea to Shut Industrial Park, Freeze South Korean Assets: To expel South Korean personnel from Gaeseong complex
In Europe we have so far seen the most volatile day of what has been a very rocky 2016. Risk off sentiment is extremely apparent across asset class, with equities seeing a significant sell off so far today. Euro Stoxx 50 is lower by around 3.0% this morning, with financials and energy names the most significant underperformers as has been the case throughout the last 6 weeks. Financials have been weighed on by SocGen (-12.4%) who have suffered significantly in the wake of their earnings, while Deutsche Bank's woes have not been forgotten (-5.7%), with the iTraxx Sub Financials index widening this morning by around 36bps, suggesting a rise in financials' CDS. The heightened fear has also seen significant gains in fixed income, with Bunds higher by around 100 ticks so far today, while UK 10-year Gilt yields dropped to a record low this morning.

European Top News

  • Glencore Copper Production Falls as Franco to Buy Metals Stream: 4Q zinc production fell 18%, coal declined 17%
  • Zurich Insurance Quarterly Loss Misses Estimates on Claims: Company expects to miss its return-on-equity target for year
  • Total’s Earnings Beat Estimates on Oil Production, Refining: Co. maintains dividend, offers payout in new stock
  • Adidas Sees Higher Profit After 2015 Earnings Beat Estimates: Raises sales, profit outlook for this year
  • BG Group Trades Final Time Before Merger: To delist from exchanges on Feb. 15 as Shell takes over; BG’s value has grown ninefold since company’s creation in 1997
  • Mediobanca Second-Quarter Profit Declines on One-Time Charges: Fiscal 2Q profit falls 24%
  • Nokia Earnings Increase on Cost Focus as Sales Fall Short: Projects 2016 “headwinds” as demand slows
  • Publicis Sales Rise on Digital, North American Business: CEO Maurice Levy forecasts ‘modest’ growth this year
  • Rio Will Cut Dividend After Metals Rout Sees Profit Tumble: To reduce spending by another $3 billion
  • Natixis Buys Stake in U.S. Boutique as CEO Seeks Advisory Growth: To acquire 51% of Peter J. Solomon
In FX, the dominant move as noted above was the USD/JPY sell off, which has impacted on all the major currency pairs. This has contributed to the risk off theme, with stock markets in Europe in the red again and US futures pointing to a 5th consecutive day of losses. From the mid 112.00's, the spot JPY rate was slammed through the 111.00's to print 110.99, with no sign of the MoF or BoJ. Cross/JPY rates were dragged lower, with EUR/JPY trading through the key 126.00 level, but with limited momentum through here as EUR/USD rallied to new recent highs just above 1.1350. No such tempering in GBP and AUD, though the former JPY rate held 160.00 despite a heavy turnaround in Cable. EUR/GBP posted new highs through .7850. AUD/USD losses through .7000 contributed to sub 80.00 (and 79.00) in AUD/JPY. USD/CAD has tested 1.4000, but holds off the figure as yet.

WTI and Brent crude futures have ticked lower in European trade with WTI Mar'16 futures notably breaking below the USD 27.00 level, near 12 year lows despite the headline figure released in yesterday's DoE inventories showing a surprise drawdown . However, some analysts have noted that Cushing OK crude inventories showed a surprise build, and the market is ready to pounce on any signs that the glut is expanding.

Gold has benefited from safe haven bids in Asian and European trade and is over USD 25.00/oz higher on the session, at its highest level since May 2015. The World Gold Council have noted that the upward trend in gold looks set to continue as buying by central banks and Chinese investors will bolster prices. Analysts have noted that the following year could see a surge of M&A activity, as gold miners have plenty of liquidity with surging gold prices and diversified miners look to offload assets, due to softness in industrial metals.

Turning to the day ahead, we get the latest weekly initial jobless claims data due in the US. The focus will again be on Fed Chair Yellen when she is due to speak in front of the Senate at 10am. Her prepared remarks will mirror what she said yesterday so the focus will be on the Q&A: for the sake of the market she better be much more dovish.

Bulletin Headline Summary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk

  • Today has seen the most volatile day of what has been a very rocky 2016, risk off sentiment is extremely apparent across asset class
  • The FX markets have been dominated by the USD/JPY sell off, which has impacted on all the major currency pairs
  • Looking ahead: highlights include: Fed's Yellen appear before Senate, weekly jobs data and earnings from PepsiCo
  • Treasuries higher in overnight trading as European equity markets plunge, WIT oil drops below $27 a barrel; Treasury to sell $15b U.S. 30Y notes, WI 2.465% vs 2.905% in January, lowest 30Y auction stop since 2.880% in August 2015.
  • Financial markets are signaling that investors have lost faith in policy makers’ ability to support the global economy. European stocks slid toward their lowest since September 2013 and U.S. futures indicated equities will open lower
  • Sweden’s central bank lowered its key interest rate even further below zero to -0.5% and said it’s prepared to use its full toolbox of measures as it battles to revive inflation and keep the krona from appreciating
  • European banks and insurers’ subordinated credit risk rose to the highest since March 2013 after disappointing earnings at Societe Generale and Zurich Insurance Group renewed concerns about financial companies’ profits; Societe Generale, France’s second-largest bank by market value, posted fourth-quarter profit that missed analysts’ estimates as earnings at the investment bank dropped and it set aside provisions for potential legal costs. The shares plunged
  • With populist and anti-EU forces surging across the region, should David Cameron leave next week’s European Union summit with a deal to overhaul the terms of Britain’s membership, many of his counterparts will dig out their own wishlists
  • Kyle Bass, the hedge fund manager who successfully bet against mortgages during the subprime crisis, said China’s banking system may see losses of more than four times those suffered by U.S. banks during the last crisis
  • The world is so awash with crude, the boss of BP Plc said people will be filling their “swimming pools” with it by the end of the year
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mostly lower, Greece (+31bp), Portugal (+31bp) higher; European stocks plunge, Asian markets mostly closed for holiday, Hang Seng drops; U.S. equity-index futures fall. Crude oil drops, copper, gold rise
US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Feb. 6., est. 280k (prior 285k); Continuing Claims, Jan. 30, est. 2.245m (prior 2.255m)
  • 8:45am: Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Feb. 7 (prior 44.2)
  • 1:00pm: U.S. to sell $15b 30Y bonds
  • Central Banks
  • 10:00am: Fed’s Yellen testifies to Senate committee
  • 5:30pm: Reserve Bank of Australia’s Stevens testifies in Parliament
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Looking at the latest in Asia this morning, markets in Korea and Hong Kong are open for the first time this week, although are largely playing catch up with the big falls that we’ve seen for risk assets in that time. The Hang Seng is currently down a steep -4.03% while the Kospi has dropped -2.97%. Mainland China exchanges are still closed although the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) is down nearly 5%. Markets in Japan are closed for a public holiday. There’s better news in Australia where the ASX is currently +0.95%, although the Aus iTraxx index is 4bps wider as we go to print. US equity market futures are weaker while Gold has surged above $1,200.

Moving on. As we highlighted at the top, yesterday saw the 2s10s Treasury yield curve go below 100bps for first time since December 2007. After spiking as high as 1.772% in early trading, the benchmark 10y yield tumbled into the close, eventually finishing over 5bps lower on the day at 1.668% and just off the 12-month lows. 2y yields finished unchanged at 0.686% meaning the spread of 98bps is the lowest since the 6th December 2007. This is one of our favourite lead indicators of the business and default cycle and the flattening that has occurred in recent years is one of the reasons we think credit conditions have been tightening for a few quarters now and why our default models have been showing a continued pick-up in defaults into 2017-2018. To be fair the last four recessions have not started until the yield curve (2s10s) has inverted. We're still some way off that but the fact that we're at the flattest for over 8 years is a warning sign.

There was finally some good news to report for European equity markets yesterday as the Stoxx 600 (+1.87%) benefited from a financials-led (Banks +4.42%) rebound to close up for the first time this month. Having been heavily hit in recent days the IBEX (+2.73%) and FTSE MIB (+5.03%) finally got some much needed relief. European credit indices also had a better day although did finish well off their tights. The iTraxx senior and sub-financials indices ended up 5bps and 13bps tighter respectively which helped Main in particular close nearly 2.5bps tighter, although the index had been closer to 8bps tighter pre-Yellen.

Staying with credit, our US credit strategists published their latest note earlier this week (Chickens Come Home to Roost, 8 Feb 2016) wherein they construct a proprietary dataset to forecast expected US default rates. The team uses index transition data to capture all forms of default – bankruptcies, out-of-court restructurings and distressed exchanges – to build a robust market-based dataset that is more detailed, precise and timely than that available from ratings agencies. The most striking revelation of the data is that DM HY commodity names appear to already be in a full cycle, with issuer-weighted default rates at 15.9% (14.9% par).

Assuming that commodity defaults rise to 20% for the year ahead and that ex-commodity defaults hold steady at 4% as they forecast, the overall default rate for DM USD HY (Commodity weight: ~20%) would hit 7.2% - magnitudes higher than the 1.85% default rate seen last year! Rising credit pressures across a spectrum of non-commodity industries and downward pressure on recovery rates in energy bonds should only serve to further compound already apparent risks.

Wrapping up, yesterday’s economic data was focused on what was a pretty soft set of industrial production reports in Europe. Data for France (-1.6% mom vs. +0.3% expected), Italy (-0.7% mom vs. +0.3% expected) and the UK (-1.1% mom vs. -0.1% expected) all missed relative to expectations, while manufacturing reports for France and the UK were also soft for the month of December.

Turning to the day ahead, there’s not alot for us to report with no economic data of note due out in Europe and just the latest weekly initial jobless claims data due in the US this afternoon. Instead the focus will again be on Fed Chair Yellen when she is due to speak in front of the Senate at 3pm GMT. Her prepared remarks could mirror what she said yesterday so the focus will be on the Q&A. Away from this we’ll also get the Riksbank’s latest monetary policy announcement where current economist expectations are for another cut in the main policy rate deeper into negative territory (10bps cut to -0.45%). Earnings wise today we have 20 S&P 500 companies set to report including AIG and PepsiCo.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-11/markets-around-world-are-crashing-gold-soars
 

Argent Dragon

Site Support
Midas Member
Site Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 29, 2010
Messages
8,298
Likes
3,040
Location
Lone Star State
#29

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#30
Social Justice, Prosperity, and Precious Metals


Submitted by Sprott Money on 02/11/2016 06:35 -0500


Social Justice, Prosperity, and Precious Metals
Written by Jeff Nielson (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)






A question may go through the minds of some readers as they read many of the articles written by this “precious metals commentator.” That question is one of relevance. Why should readers or investors who are interested in precious metals want to read about “politics,” geopolitical events, or even social justice issues?

We need to know about politics in order to be aware of the rapid and alarming deterioration of our personal and property security. As individuals, our “rights” have been gutted by new fascist laws. These laws attempt to supersede our constitutions and are thus null and void. The problem is that we are governed by corrupt regimes that no longer recognize the Rule of Law and or the supremacy of our constitutions.

In turn, this type of governance deprives us of our property security. A financial crime syndicate is now allowed to serially steal all wealth we have in paper form by deliberately manufacturing a double-digit rate of “inflation” while our governments deny this inflation exists. This rate of inflation is, literally, the rate at which this crime syndicate steals all our paper wealth via the corrupted power of the printing press.

Give me control of a nation’s money, and I care not who makes the laws.

- Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1744 – 1812)

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to prevent confiscation of savings through inflation.

- Alan Greenspan (1966)

Discontent with this serial rate of theft, some banksters have now gone well beyond this level of criminality. With “the bail-in,” some of these financial criminals now claim the right to steal any paper asset, of any type, from any kind of paper account . In turn, our puppet governments have meekly acknowledged their intent to rubber-stamp the lawless confiscation of private property by these so-called “banks.”

The “geopolitical events” occurring in the world, such as the shams and half-truths presented by corporate media, are the pretext used by our corrupt governments for devolving our societies and economies still further. Therefore, we need to learn about developments here in order to properly understand our level of economic peril and in turn our level of economic need for history’s ultimate safe havens.

But who cares about “social justice” or even economic justice? It’s the New Normal now and we can’t afford to become fixated on such concerns because we all have to focus on just taking care of ourselves.

No.

United we stand, divided we fall. These are much more than mere words. We are a communal species. Our own prosperity as individuals (and perhaps even our own survival) hinges upon the health of our communities. In our modern societies, this means the health of our nations, our provinces or states, and our municipalities.

For those who reject this mantra, try packing up, heading out into the wilderness, and “living off the land” for just one week. In Canada, there is no shortage of wilderness but you might want to wait until summer before asserting your “independence.” Except for a microscopic minority of hard-core survivalists, we need healthy societies and that means healthy governments as a framework for these societies.

In turn, the three levels of government are entirely dependent upon our tax dollars in order to provide even a minimum of necessary services. But the increasingly impoverished masses produce fewer and fewer tax dollars, while corrupted regimes refuse to tax the growing hoards of stolen wealth accumulated by the Oligarch Trillionaires, via their “banks.” The result is capitalist economies that are literally starved of capital.

An imbalance between rich and poor is the oldest and most fatal ailment of all republics.

- Plutarch (46 – 120 CE)

Two thousand years ago, it was already “old news” that wealth inequality destroys not merely communities but also nations. Yet few of the “modern thinkers” in the 21 st century can manage to grasp one of history’s oldest lessons.

There is an obvious alternative to our fatten-the-Rich and starve-the-Poor insanity: Iceland. In the Corrupt West, puppet governments sacrificed the System in order to “save the banks,” which means paying thetrillions of dollars in extortion demanded by the oligarchs’ crime syndicate, in perpetuity. In Iceland, an honest government sacrificed the banks and saved the System.

The results speak for themselves. By preserving its social safety net, and purging most elements of this financial crime syndicate from its economy, Iceland has the most prosperous economy in the Western world. Even the IMF was forced to acknowledge this in its economic “report” on Iceland, while simultaneously this tool of the bankers was ramming more ludicrous Austerity down the throat of twice-bankrupted Greece.

We must now face the consequences of allowing our corrupt governments to erase our constitutions, shred our social safety net and destroy our economies. Over the immediate term, meaning the permanent “crisis” which we have allowed our Overlords to impose upon us, (physical) precious metals represent our best and surest means of personal financial salvation.

However, this is not the point. As sane and responsible citizens (at least we used to be citizens), there are better uses for our time than learning the million-and-one reasons why we need precious metals in order to protect ourselves from our own puppet governments and the oligarchs pulling their strings. What sane and responsible citizens should be devoting their energies toward is eliminating our grave need to squirrel away large quantities of gold and silver in anticipation of a financial cataclysm that should never have been allowed to occur.

It is for all these reasons that we need to become educated about social justice, economic justice, and how and why we can never again have genuine prosperity unless and until we restore these concepts to our own lives and societies. It’s too late to salvage our debauched monetary system or our bankrupted economies. Debt Jubilee is now mathematically inevitable – and in the near future.

But what about after that? How do we end up with anything other than a repeat of what we have just experienced, unless people learn how we must rebuild our economies and societies out of the rubble being created by our Overlords?

Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

- George Santayana (1863 – 1952)

The only thing necessary for the triumph of Evil is for good men [and women] to do nothing.

- Edmund Burke (1729 – 1797)

Again, these are more than just words. But how can we “remember the past” if we do not correctly understand it? How can we prevent “the triumph of Evil” if we do not correctly understand how to do good?

Will our corrupt governments tell us how to correctly and properly rebuild our societies, so we can return to the prosperity that we took for granted for generations? Will the corporate media tell us? Will the bankers?

If the people reading these commentaries don’t take personal responsibility now for learning from the mistakes of the present and remembering our previous recipe for prosperity, the future is certain. We will be dooming our children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren to repeating the same cycle of corruptionthat we are living today.

If the Citizens of our societies do not take responsibility – today – for shaping our future, then by default the Oligarchs will do this themselves, through the army of paid lackeys they can fund with the wealth they have stolen from us over the last several decades.

Serfs or citizens? There is no middle ground. Prosperity always comes at a price and that price is vigilance. But such vigilance isn’t possible with populations who now have absolutely no idea as to how we restore our societies and economies. It’s impossible to detect when our leaders our doing something wrong and we wouldn’t even recognize it if our governments were doing something right.

The recipe for prosperity (like most good recipes) is a relatively simple one. What must be re-learned, since it has been long forgotten, is that most of the “ingredients” of prosperity fall squarely under the categories of social justice and economic justice:

1) Minimize poverty;

2) Restore high wages for the workers and moderate wages for management;

3) Eliminate structural unemployment;

4) Eliminate corporate subsidies;

5) Break-up the monopolies/oligopolies, and restore competition; and finally

6) Tax the hoards of (stolen) wealth of the very wealthy, via wealth taxation.

Each one of those subjects is much too complex to be explained in the form of some easily digestible, one-paragraph summary. However, every one of these subjects has been addressed before in one or more previous commentaries. For those readers who don’t have a sophisticated understanding of these issues (and their solutions), it is your responsibility to acquire such an understanding.

We collectively bear the responsibility for having allowed the devolution and financial degradation of our once-prosperous economies. We bear the responsibility for having allowed the devolution of our once free and just societies. Therefore, we bear the responsibility for fixing what we have broken and this requires taking the personal responsibility to educate ourselves.

The good news here is that, in most respects, such “education” comes in the form of simply re-learning and remembering how our governments, societies, and economies previously functioned – back when we enjoyed an abundance of both prosperity and liberty.

Do you remember the days of “powerful unions” and the wages they were able to command for all workers, both union and non-union? Two-car garages, low unemployment and one wage-earners could provide comfortably for an entire family. Weren’t those horrible times?

The function of a responsible precious metals commentator is not to preach only doom-and-gloom and to act as a cheerleader for higher precious metals prices. Rather, what all such commentators should strive for is the elimination of our need to accumulate gold and silver.

The best possible outcome for this writer, or any other person in this sector, is if there were no more need for “precious metals commentators.” This is because eliminating this niche implies two things: it implies that we would once again be living in societies with plenty of other employment and economic opportunities around us; and it also implies that we would not be living in a time of grave political and economic peril.


For questions on this article or precious metals, please contact HERE


Social Justice, Prosperity, and Precious Metals
Written by Jeff Nielson (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-10/social-justice-prosperity-and-precious-metals
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#34
Gold and Silver Market Morning - Fed helps Gold Vault Higher in an uncertain world: Feb-11-2016
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster
Now, nations are blatantly acting in their own interests, to the exclusion of other nations. A global monetary system cannot act in a stable manner in such a climate. With a decaying global economy adding to the pressures on currency exchange rates we foresee growing volatility and instability. We do expect central bank gold reserves to be harnessed in attempts to ease such instability, keeping many parts of the global economy liquid.
 

Argent Dragon

Site Support
Midas Member
Site Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 29, 2010
Messages
8,298
Likes
3,040
Location
Lone Star State
#35
DJIA


15,542.56


-372.18
NASDAQ

4,217.56

-66.04
TSX Gold

178.35

+11.23
RUSSELL

944.70

-18.79
GOX

18,299.60

0.00
NYSE

8,984.41

-192.32
TSX

12,008.70

-177.05
USD

95.25

-0.64
HUI

160.51

+11.73
NIKKEI

15,713.39

-372.05
JSE

1,887.32

+169.78
Crude Oil 26.58 -0.87
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#36

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#37
Silver & Gold: What Comes Down Must Go UP!
SalivateMetal


Published on Feb 11, 2016
Some commentary about the constant stream of rising gold and silver prices. Actually, I just wanted an excuse to do this video so you can see how high my kitty can jump!
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
72,187
Likes
34,590
#40
Dow Jones falls 400 points and closes down for the fifth day in a row as every industry slumps compared to last year's high
  • Dow Jones fell more than 400 points in trading to close 255 point down
  • Slump marks the fifth straight day of losses after a torrid start to 2016
  • Every industry has seen a fall in value since the high point of last year
  • Banking stocks and energy have been particularly hard-hit over fears of bad debt, worse-than-expected profits and the plunging value of crude oil


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3443213/Dow-Jones-falls-400-points-closes-fifth-day-row-industry-slumps-compared-year-s-high.html#ixzz3zubavMOs
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook