• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

R.T.M. ~ Frontrunning ~ 9th Ed., Vol.2 ~ Feb 29th - Mar 4th

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#1

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#2
China's Sketchy Numbers | John Rubino
FinanceAndLiberty.com


Published on Feb 27, 2016
China just released their GDP numbers and they were up 6.9% in 2015. This was the lowest growth rate in decades. But did it really happen? Ghost cities, credit busts and real estate troubles bring into question the reality of these numbers. All governments twist and distort statistics to their own uses and China is no different. So what will happen next? Cash is still king!

This video was posted with permission from http://FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com

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#3
Weekly Forex Review - 29th of February to the 4th of March
Forex Reviews


Published on Feb 27, 2016

Lot's of potential zones and areas of interest covered once again this week to look for potential evidence in the upcoming market ahead. Some zones being tested right now while others to set alarms for when the price gets to the zone. Overall another week full of opportunities expected in the upcoming market ahead.

Zones and areas of interest covered this week include trend based zones as well as some high probability counter trend based zones.

Thanks for watching and Happy Trading, if you watched this bio do not forget to comment, like and subscribe. Also comment "Happy Trading" below to let me know you read the bio as well.

I appreciate you all.
 

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#4
Architects Part 1 - The Gold Commission
belangp


Published on Feb 27, 2016
First video in a series that seeks to resolve the apparent contradiction created when a system that appears to want to trap capital offers an ideal wealth management asset that is affordable.
 

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#5
Is The Big One Happening Now? | Andy Hoffman
FinanceAndLiberty.com


Published on Feb 28, 2016
Wipe out Wednesdays with Andy Hoffman:

Andy's latest article, Is This the Big One should have hit your mailbox by now. Start getting ready if you haven't already. Currencies are collapsing all over the globe. Look at Canada and Australia if you don't believe it. The Dow is down is nearly 400 points as we speak, 2000 since the beginning of the year. Crazy politicians are cropping up all over. The crisis is either here or just a heartbeat away. Numerous banks are exposed to the plunging energy prices and collapsing oil producers. Everyone is levered to the hilts. There's no where to go and no way to save it. Don't mean to be alarmist, but the situation is grave!

This video was posted with permission from http://FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com

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#6
The Silver Manifesto Has Arrived! | David Morgan
FinanceAndLiberty.com


Published on Feb 28, 2016
Our good friend David Morgan appeared today. Fresh from the release of his new book, The Silver Manifesto, he's in a process of watchful waiting concerning the precious metals sector. Is this the moment when they ascend or are we in for more of the same? Will central bankers be able to regain control of markets again soon? Perhaps not, but we will know more very shortly.

This video was posted with permission from http://FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com

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#7
Bix Weir-Mass Awakening Followed By Chaos
Greg Hunter


Published on Feb 28, 2016
Gold and silver analyst Bix Weir says the next huge financial calamity all starts with “a mass awakening followed by chaos.” Weir contends, “People keep asking how will the people wake up? . . . . The moment that happens is when the banks fail, and they go to their ATM’s. . . . They are going to be very angry. . . . They will believe these banks will have stolen their life savings. That’s when people will wake up in mass amounts.”

When all this happens you should have physical gold and silver—especially silver. Weir explains, “Silver has been used as money for 5,000 years, even more than gold has been used as money. Above ground silver and above ground gold are about 6 billion ounces each—total. Why is there an 80 to 1 ratio in price of silver to gold? It’s the computers and the market rigging that has been going on since the 1970’s. . . .Silver will be the last released in manipulation because it is so important. It’s a national security issue. . . . The price of silver today in U.S. dollar terms should be one to one with the price of gold. After the shakeout it will be a 4 to one ratio.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Bix Weir of RoadtoRoota.com and author of the third book in his series called “The Road Awakens.”
 

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#10
Frontrunning: February 29


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/29/2016 07:27 -0500

  • Shares fall on G20 disappointment, Fed hike worries (Reuters)
  • China cuts reserve requirement ratio for fifth time since Feb. 2015 (Reuters)
  • China Stocks Tumble Toward 15-Month Low as Stimulus Bets Unwind (BBG)
  • S&P 500 Futures Signal 2nd Day of Stock Losses; Valeant Slides (BBG)
  • Valeant fundamental risks are too severe to suggest the stock is poised for a lasting rebound (WSJ)
  • Iran reformists cheer election gains, hardliners play down shift (Reuters)
  • ‘Spotlight’ Wins Oscar for Best Picture in Hollywood’s Biggest Night (WSJ)
  • His Job Is to Sell a $1,000 Pill for $10 Without Losing Money (BBG)
  • Former Malaysian Prime Minister Resigns From Ruling Party (WSJ)
  • Foxconn, Sharp Said to Weigh Revising Terms of Approved Deal (BBG)
  • It's Getting Harder for Currency Traders to Make Money, Market Veteran Says (BBG)
  • Citi to Sell 20% Stake in China Guangfa Bank for $3 Billion (WSJ)
  • Arab States Face $94 Billion Debt Crunch on Oil Slump, HSBC Says (BBG)
  • Bullish Oil Bets Rise as Hedge Funds See Crude Supply Tightening (BBG)
  • Manhattan Penthouse Gets Sliced in Two as Luxury Market Falters (BBG)
  • JPMorgan traders sacked over compliance (FT)
  • Citigroup Faces Fraud Suit Claiming $1.1 Billion in Losses (BBG)


Overnight Media Wrap

WSJ

- Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc said Michael Pearson has returned from medical leave to lead the company as chief executive officer, with the role of chairman split off. (http://on.wsj.com/1KWG3VN)

- "Spotlight", the film on the Boston Globe's investigative team, won the Academy Award for best picture, while "The Revenant" walked away with best director for Alejandro Inarritu and best actor for Leonardo DiCaprio. (http://on.wsj.com/1KWGajX)

- Helicopter manufacturers and operators from around the globe will gather this week to revamp safety initiatives after years of lackluster results marked by stubbornly high fatality rates. (http://on.wsj.com/1KWGsHB)

- Microsoft Corp's new Cyber Defense Operations Center is at the heart of the software giant's campaign to rebuild its reputation for security at a time when the number of potential cyberattack targets has exploded. (http://on.wsj.com/1KWGTld)

- The U.S. market is so oversupplied with oil that traders are experimenting with a new place for storing excess crude - Railcars. (http://on.wsj.com/1KWHhjN)

- The Federal Communications Commission is probing whether big cable firms use special contract provisions to discourage media companies - from Walt Disney Co to smaller firms - from running programming on the Internet. (http://on.wsj.com/1KWHnI1)



FT

GlaxoSmithKline Plc is set to start a formal search for its next chief executive. The company's chairman, Philip Hampton, already spoke to large shareholders about the succession on an informal basis.

The British Retail Consortium said that up to 1 million jobs in the retail sector, a third of today's total, will disappear by 2025 as factors like rising minimum wage impact the industry.

Senior directors at EDF SA are pushing the company to seek for new investors for the 18 billion stg Hinkley Point nuclear reactor project causing a delay in its final approval.



NYT

- J. Michael Pearson has returned as the chief executive of Valeant Pharmaceuticals after two months of medical leave, setting him up for the challenge of restoring investor confidence in the embattled company. (http://nyti.ms/1T3KfFz)

- In a push for transparency since the 2008 financial crisis, regulators asked banks to clearly disclose and explain the terms of just about every financial product, including credit cards and mortgages. But overdraft practices still come with hidden costs and confusing terms, bank customers, lawyers and consumer advocates say. (http://nyti.ms/21CySGa)

- With a series of wins in key Republican primary states, and with the billionaire's expected strong showing when 12 states hold primaries or caucuses on Tuesday, the European media, like its American counterpart, is adjusting to the prospect of a seemingly unstoppable Trump juggernaut. (http://nyti.ms/215gO5i)

- The discovery of perfluorooctanoic acid, a toxic chemical linked in some studies to an increased risk for cancer and thyroid disease, in the Hoosick Falls, N.Y. has alarmed residents, some of whom are critical of officials' response. (http://nyti.ms/1UtjTw9)



Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Enbridge Inc's Chief Executive Al Monaco says his company is aiming to invest $1 billion a year in natural gas and renewable energy projects, as it looks to rebalance its earnings away from oil over the longer term and take advantage of the global push to a lower-carbon economy. (bit.ly/1KXycHt)

** Wealth managers are bracing for a busy day even though fewer Canadians say they plan to drop cash into registered retirement savings plans this year in the wake of the market turmoil. A recent Bank of Montreal study found that 61 percent of Canadians intend to a make a contribution to their RRSP accounts by the deadline, down slightly from 64 percent last year. (bit.ly/1KXyUEu)

** British Columbia Premier Christy Clark has spent more than half-a-million dollars on private flights in the past five years, but her office is defending the expense as necessary, saying that it falls within the annual budget. More than $65,000 was spent on charter flights between Vancouver and Kelowna since July 2013, when Clark was elected the MLA for Westside-Kelowna in a by-election. (bit.ly/1KXAF4z)



Britain

The Times

The RSPCA, the country's largest private prosecutor, is to transform how it brings cruelty suspects to court by sparing huntsmen, farmers and animal sanctuaries but turning the spotlight on to pet owners. (http://thetim.es/1QehFOk)

A British exit from the European Union could raise the risk of blackouts and gas shortages, one of Britain's leading energy lawyers, head of energy at CMS Cameron McKenna Penelope Warne, has warned. (http://thetim.es/1KVWiSN)

The Guardian

The UK's biggest energy lobbying group, Energy UK, has shifted its position on green energy and will start campaigning for low-carbon alternatives for the first time, in what environmental campaigners are describing as a watershed moment. (http://bit.ly/1TKZW4K)

The Telegraph

Andrew Witty's reign as chief executive of GlaxoSmithKline Plc is approaching its final months, with headhunters drawing up a list of potential successors. Glaxo chairman Philip Hampton is understood to have instructed the City recruiters Egon Zehnder to identify candidates within and outside the company. (http://bit.ly/1Qm9pgu)

Google's rival to Apple Pay will make its British debut at the end of March, as the web giant attempts to muscle into the emerging mobile payments industry. (http://bit.ly/1TIWYfK)

Sky News

Barclays Plc's remuneration committee has determined that former chief executive Antony Jenkins should receive a payment of around 500,000 stg on top of millions of pounds of other contractual entitlements due to him until July. (http://bit.ly/1QdY9RX)

A vote for the UK to leave the European Union could jeopardise billions of pounds in infrastructure investment, the boss of one of Britain's biggest waste recycling groups, chief executive of Suez's UK recycling and recovery division David Palmer-Jones, warned this weekend. (http://bit.ly/1Tgn0Zn)

The Independent

Another financial crisis is certain unless banks and governments reform financial systems across the globe, according to the former governor of the Bank of England, Lord King. (http://ind.pn/24w0EXc)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-29/frontrunning-february-29
 

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#11
China's Panicked RRR Cut Leads To Feeble Stock Rebound; Gold Resumes Climb


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/29/2016 07:03 -0500

After the G-20 ended in a wave of global disappointment, leading to the biggest Yuan devaluation in 8 weeks, and sending Chinese stocks into a tailspin on concerns the PBOC has forsaken its stock market as well as speculation the housing bubble is now sucking up excess liquidity which in turn pushed global market deep in the red to start the week, it was the PBOC's turn to scramble in a panicked reaction to sliding risk exactly one month after Japan unveiled its own desperation NIRP, and as reported before unexpectedly cut its Reserve Requirement Ratio by 0.5% to 17.0%, the first such cut in 2016 and the 5th since the start of 2015.

Since this move is an implicit liquidity injection, it was immediate negative for the offshore Yuan which tumbled...



... forcing cynical observers to ask if the PBOC "told" the G-20 about this major intervention in its currency just hours after it "promised" it would refrain from precisely such an action.

And while desperate central banks are now the norm, what is more troubling is that just like in the case of Japan's negative rates announcement, so far China's latest RRR cut has failed to prompt a substantial bounce in either US equity futures or the all important USDJPY carry trade, which at last check was unchanged with the E-mini was barely up from overnight lows and still red.

And if the PBOC is indeed powerless to provoke a risk on move, as we said last night it will be all up to Draghi and the ECB on March 10.

One asset classes that did not ignore the latest risk disappointment was gold which has again rebounded from recent lows around $1,200 and is headed for the biggest monthly advance in four years as a darkening global outlook spurred demand for haven assets. Bullion for immediate delivery added 0.9 percent to $1,234.09 an ounce. It’s up more than 10 percent in February, set for the biggest gain since January 2012.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • PBoC's shock decision to lower the RRR sees European stocks pull off worst levels, while soft EU CPI figures increased speculation of more stimulus from the ECB.
  • AUD has been the main beneficiary from the latest PBoC action, while USD/JPY trades lower after a failed break above 114.00
  • Looking ahead, participants will be placing a keen eye on the latest US Chicago PMI data and Pending Home Sales.
Where we stand now:

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 1939
  • Stoxx 600 down 0.6% to 330
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.4% to 119
  • US 10-yr yield down 2bps to 1.74%
  • Dollar Index up 0.03% to 98.18
  • WTI Crude futures down 0.5% to $32.63
  • Brent Futures up 0.7% to $35.35
  • Gold spot up 0.9% to $1,233
  • Silver spot up 0.7% to $14.80
Top Global News

  • Valeant’s CEO to Return From Medical Leave; Guidance Withdrawn: CEO Pearson gives up board chairman role to Robert Ingram
  • Foxconn, Sharp Said to Weigh Revising Terms of Approved Deal: Bankers, lawyers are going through a list of Sharp liabilities that could exceed 300b yen
  • Boehringer Ingelheim, AbbVie Said in Cancer Partnership Talks: Multi-billion alliance could be announced as soon as this week
  • Buffett Seeks More Takeovers, Likens Precision’s CEO to Da Vinci: Investments offer source of funds for “elephant” deals
  • Nintendo Falls After Halving Profit Goal on Weak 3DS Sales: Sluggish handheld sales, yen cut earnings
  • China Cuts Reserve Requirement Ratio by 0.5 Percentage Point: Says it seeks to maintain reasonable, ample liquidity in financial system
  • SpaceX Scraps Another Attempt at Falcon 9 Rocket Launch: “Aborted on low thrust alarm,” according to Elon Musk tweet
  • Google Parent Could Gain $3.5b If Intel Wins Tax Dispute: WSJ Says: Alphabet would benefit if Intel wins international tax dispute with IRS
  • UTX Adds Goldman Sachs as Adviser Against Honeywell Bid, CNBC Says: UTX on Friday again spurned $90b Honeywell offer
  • Hillary Clinton Wins S.C. Democratic Primary, Defeating Sanders: Clinton won state with electorate similar to upcoming contests
  • Citigroup Faces Fraud Suit Claiming $1.1 Billion in Losses: Investors in Mexican oil services firm sue over loan schemes
  • Lattice Semiconductor Mulls Sale Amid Chinese Interest: Reuters: Co. is working with Morgan Stanley to review interests
  • Monsanto Next Logical Target for BASF, Baader-Helvea Says: Monsanto’s seed pipeline, weaker crop protection offering would fit very well with BASF portfolio
  • ‘Spotlight’ Wins Oscar Upset in Ceremony Dominated by Race: Favorite ‘Revenant’ gets wins for DiCaprio, director Iñárritu
  • ‘Gods of Egypt’ Is Year’s First Big Flop at U.S. Box Office: Lions Gate may not turn profit on $140 million movie
  • Starbucks to Open Its First Store in Italy Early Next Year: Percassi will be the licensee for SBUX in the country.
Looking at overnight global market highlights, we start with China were as reported previously, the PBoC cuts the RRR by 50bps to 17.00% in a surprise announcement, however refrains from lowering the lending and deposit rate. Overnight Asian equities traded mixed, following last Friday's lacklustre lead from Wall St., where US stocks finished in mild negative territory as firmer than expected US GDP data increased rate hike expectations. Nikkei 225 (-1.0%) was dictated by JPY, as the index reversed early firm advances as JPY strengthened during Asia trade. ASX 200 (+0.12%) finished with mild gains amid rising hopes for RBA easing later this year, while mainland China significantly underperformed with the Shanghai Comp (-2.8%) slumping after PBoC continued to weaken the currency. Shenzhen markets were also down nearly 5% on concerns that major reforms such as the Shenzhen-HK connect could be delayed. Prospects of liquidity outflows from the stock market into the recovering property sector and an expected 1.8MM job cuts in the coal and steel industries also weighed on sentiment. 10 year JGBs traded in minor positive territory with the BoJ in the market for JPY 1.26TN, although prices softened from highs in the second half of the session amid thin trade.

Top Asian News

  • Telkom Seeks to Slash Workforce by Two-Fifths to Cut Costs: Company identifies about 6,250 positions for elimination
  • ChemChina Seeks $35 Billion in Loans for Syngenta Takeover Deal: China Citic Bank to arrange a $15b loan facility; ChemChina to meet lenders this week on separate $20b loan
  • Australia Rate-Cut Bets Rise on Stimulus Outlook, Weak Pay Gains: AU wage rises are smallest on record, jobs growth evaporates and firms plan to cut investment
  • Yuan Fixings Enigma Returns as PBOC Reverts to Currency Basket: PBOC kept moves in its daily reference rates to a maximum 0.02% most days in the month up to Lunar New Year break
  • Zheshang Bank Said to Delay Testing $1 Billion IPO Interest: Stock buyers reported difficulty transferring money out of mainland China
  • Modi Budget Key to Breaking March Jinx for India Sovereign Bonds: Benchmark 10-yr yields have risen avg. 18 basis points in last 10 months of March
European equities pulled off worst levels on the back of the surprise action by the PBoC to cut the RRR by 50bps, coupled with the soft EU CPI readings which could force the hand of the ECB to act . Prior to this Eurostoxx had been treading water following the weakness in Chinese stocks amid prospects of liquidity outflows from the stock market. Additionally, financials have underperformed with large caps HSBC (-2.5%) and Standard Chartered (-4.2%) leading the losses, while the latter has been weighed on by concerns that the Shenzhen-HK connect could be delayed. Softness in EU bourses as well as rising ECB stimulus bets have seen bunds bid throughout the mornings to take out the earlier session highs and last Friday's high around 166.14. Subsequently, bunds printed a fresh all time high (166.46) with yields in the 10-yr falling to the lowest since April.

Top European News

  • Euro-Area Consumer Prices Fall Most in Year as ECB Mulls Easing: Inflation rate at minus 0.2% in February vs 0% forecast
  • Gameloft Rejects Vivendi’s Valuation of $562 Million as Too Low: Guillemot family to fight Vivendi’s Bollore for control
  • Manz Jumps After Deal to Sell 29.9% Stake to Shanghai Electric: Manz to sell new shares to investors to add Chinese partner
  • Amazon Steps Up U.K. Grocery Advance With Morrison Supply Deal: To sell hundreds of WM Morrison Supermarkets products
  • SNB Could Cut Exemption Limit If More Easing Needed, Jordan Says: Current threshold at 20 times minimum-reserve requirements
  • Barclays Africa Shares Plummet as U.K. Parent Said to Mull Sale: Barclays Africa says it still sees growth on the continent
  • Swiss Spared New EU Headache as Vote on Foreign Criminals Fails: Rejects initiative to deport foreigners convicted of crimes
In FX, it has been a tentative start to the week, though European trade was following on from an Asian session which saw USD/JPY turnaround sharply. After hitting a wall at 114.00, losses extended through 113.00, but found some support ahead of Friday's lows before subsequent consolidation received a fresh boost after the PBoC announced it was to cut the RRR by 0.5%. Spot jumped through 113.00, with AUD also turning higher sharply, but topping out around .7165-70 before heading back to pre-announcement levels. At the same time, we also had the release of the EU inflation data, where the Fec core rate fell from 1.0% previously to 0.7%. EUR/USD had already been threatening a retest of the 1.0900 level, and managed to do so after the data. GBP still looking weak vs the USD, but earlier lows intact as yet. CNH and CNY above 6.5500, creeping higher but nothing to concern markets as yet.

Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem said in Shanghai on Saturday that “there was some concern that we would get into a situation of competitive devaluations” with regards to Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told parliament Monday he is not trying to influence foreign-exchange rates, and that an excessively strong yen has been corrected under his economic reform program, dubbed Abenomics. The currency was trading around 85 per dollar when Abe took office in December 2012.

China’s yuan declined 0.2 percent, retreating for a seventh day, as the central bank lowered the currency’s reference rate and stepped up efforts to cushion the economic slowdown with the cut in banks’ required reserve ratio.

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures have seen somewhat of a turnaround in the wake of the PBoC's actions, consequently signalling rising global growth prospects in what has otherwise been a rather subdued start to the week in the energy complex. Oil headed for its fourth monthly decline in New York, the longest retreat in a year, as record U.S. crude stockpiles weighed on prices. West Texas Intermediate fell 0.3 percent to $32.67 a barrel, extending February’s decline to 2.9 percent. Brent crude added 0.5 percent to $35.28 for an increase of 1.6 percent this month.

Record-high stockpiles of U.S. natural gas for the time of year sent futures 4.8 percent lower to $1.706 per million British thermal units, extending a fourth weekly decline as mild winter limited the drawdown.

Copper erased a decline of as much as 1.3 percent after the China central bank stimulus, leaving it little changed at $4,706 a metric ton.


* * *

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

tomorrow we'll give a full performance review but with a day left the highlights are a US equity market that has just edged back into positive territory for February, leaving mainland Europe behind (generally down 2-7% still). US 10yr yields are nearly 20bp lower, with Bunds nearly 30bps lower in what is the standout move on the month! Meanwhile Oil is pretty much flat with Chinese equities wiping out monthly gains after a steep late month sell-off. Anyway, full review tomorrow.

The overall numbers mask a strong rebound in risk (and oil) since around Feb 11th, although bonds haven't sold off much since. Although the dates don't exactly coincide it's worth highlighting that US data surprises troughed in early February after a poor run but are now at around their highest level since early December. So this has helped risk and helped US out-performance. Meanwhile European data surprises continue to plummet and to their lowest since 2013 in the comparable indices to the US data. Our own DB SIREN-Surprise index hit 2012 lows on Friday. So although markets have stabilised in the last 2-3 weeks, it's clear that Europe seems to be losing momentum over a period where the banking industry is under pressure with the risks that this could spill over into the wider economy. As such the pressure is still on the ECB to deliver next week even if markets have stabilised. The question mark is whether a straight cut deeper into negative deposit rate territory would be counterproductive or not alongside amendments to QE. So they may need to be innovative as to how they ease policy further.

As we'll see in the week ahead we have the all important global manufacturing PMIs/ISM on Tuesday and non-manufacturing equivalents on Thursday. The keys things to watch out for are any stabilising in global manufacturing and whether services continue to trend down towards them but whether a notable (albeit narrowing) gap can be maintained. Obviously services typically make up 80-90% of DM economies and whether this part of economies can withstand the various shocks thrown at it of late will be key to asset prices going forward.

Over the weekend we saw the latest G20 meeting conclude with nice sound bites but without much obvious substance. The group agreed to use "fiscal policy flexibility to strengthen growth, job creation and confidence" and reiterated that "monetary policy alone cannot lead to balanced growth". However as an example of the issues, UK Chancellor Osbourne warned on Friday of imminent and renewed spending cuts in his budget in two weeks and there is no obvious sign of notable loosening of the fiscal spigots anywhere else. However it does seem the debate is slowly shifting back towards fiscal over monetary policy which in our opinion is healthy. It may take a recession to focus minds properly though.

The underwhelming G20 meeting is contributing to a soft start to the week in Asia with Chinese equities leading the way (Shanghai Comp -3.5%) with the Yuan edging lower for the 7th successive session. Comments on Friday from PBoC chief Zhou that there was room for more easing had led some to hope they would announce more stimulus over the weekend but this didn't materialise. Elsewhere the Hang Seng is -1.2% and the Nikkei is -0.2%.

Looking back to Friday, we saw European equity markets ignore weak numbers out of Europe (see below) and ride a rally in mining and oil shares on the back of a recovery in the commodities complex. The STOXX and the FTSE300 closed up +1.53% and +1.72% respectively while the FTSE100 stocks posted gains of +1.38%, as markets ended the week in positive territory despite Wednesday’s slump. In bond markets, European yields continued to be firm as weak inflation data out of Europe further raised expectations for next week's ECB meeting. German 10Y yields (+0.9bp) were largely flat on the day but yields were cumulatively tighter on the week. This signified the sixth consecutive weekly gain for 10yr bunds. iTraxx Senior (-9.1bp) and Sub (-25.1bp) spreads also tightened on Friday, ending the week -8bps and -25bps respectively. In the US the S&P 500 closed -0.19% after edging steadily lower all day from a bright open.

Staying with the US and adding to the recent positive surprises discussed above, economic data out of the US on Friday generally exceeded expectations, albeit with some caveats. Annualised Q4 GDP growth was revised up to +1.0% qoq (vs. +0.4% expected) from the previous estimate of +0.7% on the back of an upward adjustment to business inventories. Although positive, the growth mix encouraged the Atlanta Fed to lower its Q1 GDPNow forecast to 2.1% from 2.5% after the expected inventory component fell -0.6% offsetting a +0.2% increase in consumer spending. Back to Friday's data, while personal consumption growth for January missed expectations (+2.0% vs. +2.2% expected), personal spending rose by the most in eight months (+0.5% vs. +0.3% expected vs. 0.0% previous) and the PCE Deflator returned to inflationary territory (+0.1% mom actual vs. +0.0% expected; -0.1% previous). Consumer sentiment for February (as measured by the UMichigan Sentiment indicator) also improved more than projected, as the index hit 91.7 (vs. 91.0 expected; 90.7 prior). A negative mark amid the positive data was the US advance goods trade balance for January which saw the trade deficit widen to -U$62.2bn (vs. -U$61.2bn expected; -U$61.5bn previous) on the back of weaker global economic activity.

European data on the other hand largely disappointed across the board and continued setting the stage for further ECB easing. First, the relatively good news: French Q4 GDP grew at +0.3% qoq (vs. +0.2% expected) as household spending rebounded faster than expected. Now for the bad news – and there’s lots of it. Germany and France both saw deflation with HICP numbers clocking in at -0.2% YoY (vs. 0.0% expected) and -0.1% YoY (vs. +0.1% expected) respectively. Euro Area economic confidence slumped to its lowest level since June (103.8 actual vs. 104.3 expected; 105.0 previous) while the business climate indicator (0.07 actual vs. 0.27 expected; 0.29 previous), industrial confidence (-4.4 actual vs. -3.6 expected; -3.2 previous) and services confidence (10.6 actual vs. 11.4 expected; 11.6 previous) all declined more than expected.

Kicking off proceedings this morning is the UK where we’ll get the January net consumer credit and mortgage approvals data. Shortly following that will be the February estimate for Euro area CPI (+0.1% mom expected) along with the same data out of Italy. This afternoon in the US there will be a lot of focus on the February Chicago PMI number, while the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index and January pending home sales data will also be released.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...leads-feeble-stock-rebound-gold-resumes-climb
 

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#13

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#14
ZIRP and NIRP: Killing Retirement As We Know It
By: John Mauldin
The idea that people can stop working in their fifties or sixties and then enjoy 20+ years of relative leisure is actually quite new. For most of human history, the vast majority of people worked as long as they were physically able to – and died soon after. Retirement is possible now only because those other 20th-century innovations accelerated the division of labor and lifted us out of subsistence farming and living.


Gold and Silver Market Morning: Feb-29-2016 -- Real Currency Wars on the way?
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster
Indian demand remains on the sidelines until the Indian budget details are out, today. Demand was held back hoping for a cut in duties in the last week. If duties are cut then the demand will jump as buyers see up to a 10% cheaper price there. That brings prices down from [see below] nearly Rs.85,000 an ounce to Rs.76,500. That will draw out new Indian demand. It will also make it much more attractive for Indian investors as the ‘spread’ on prices will narrow significantly, making both trading and investment more attractive.
 

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#15
Shipping & Energy 02/29:

Peak Oil Review - Feb 29
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2016-02-29/peak-oil-review-2016-Feb-29

Singapore's Bourse Submits Bid for London's Baltic Exchange
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...e-in-preliminary-talks-to-buy-baltic-exchange

UPDATE 1-Mexico's first-ever deep water Gulf oil auction set for Dec 5
http://www.reuters.com/article/mexico-oil-idUSL2N1651BL

Death toll from Russia's mine disaster climbs to 36 as rescuers killed in new explosion
http://www.mining.com/death-toll-fr...bs-to-36-as-rescuers-killed-in-new-explosion/

L.A. Natural Gas Leak Worst GHG Disaster In U.S. History
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...as-Leak-Worst-GHG-Disaster-In-US-History.html

What Would Negative Interest Rates Mean for the Oil Market?
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...e-Interest-Rates-Mean-for-the-Oil-Market.html

Honolulu-based ocean cargo company profit jumps 46 percent
http://westhawaiitoday.com/news/sta...d-ocean-cargo-company-profit-jumps-46-percent
 

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#16
Bear Market Blues For The New Year | Danielle Park
FinanceAndLiberty.com


Published on Feb 29, 2016
Danielle Park has been warning you for years about the unsustainability of the stock market's upward trajectory. Sure enough, right after the new year the bear market officially started. You've got a consistent pattern of lower lows and lower highs, which is never a good sign. The only real question is how long will it last, which no one knows for sure, but Danielle believes that if you've taken your profits, you'll have enough cash on hand to be a bargain hunter when the time comes.

This video was posted with permission from http://FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com

FINANCE AND LIBERTY:
SUBSCRIBE (It's FREE!) for more ►http://bit.ly/Subscription-Link
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Google Plus ►http://Gplus.to/FinanceLiberty
 

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#17
RANsquawk Week ahead - 29th February
RAN squawk

 

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#20
Frontrunning: March 1


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/01/2016 07:33 -0500

  • Trump, Clinton poised for big wins on Super Tuesday (Reuters)
  • U.S. Index Futures Signal Equities to Rebound After Monthly Drop (BBG)
  • Barclays Plummets as Bank Slashes Dividend in Plan to Shrink (BBG)
  • Glencore Tumbles to Loss, Promises Accelerated Debt Reduction (WSJ)
  • The Angry Americans: Trump, Sanders and the Aftershocks of 2008 (BBG)
  • Euro sinks as weak data piles pressure on European Central Bank (Reuters)
  • China's PMI Reports Show Slowdown Deepening as Services Slip (BBG)
  • China Manufacturing Slows More Than Expected (WSJ)
  • China’s Central Bank Can’t Shed a Culture of Secrecy (WSJ)
  • Greece's Creditors Said to Face Impasse Over Terms of Bailout (BBG)
  • OPEC watching Iran, Russia, unlikely to cut output in June (Reuters)
  • Oil near two-month high on China demand hopes, easing supply glut (Reuters)
  • 1MDB Scandal: Deposits in Malaysian Leader Najib’s Accounts Said to Top $1 Billion (WSJ)
  • The Rise and Fall of Commodities Hedge Fund King Willem Kooyker (BBG)
  • NYSE Owner ICE, CME Group Mulling Bids for LSE (WSJ)
  • Fed's Dudley sees risks to U.S. economic outlook tilting to downside (Reuters)
  • Barclays Falls Under SEC Spotlight for Asian Hiring (WSJ)
  • New bin Laden documents show a suspicious, pressured al Qaeda (Reuters)
  • U.S. small business borrowing at lowest level since 2014: PayNet (Reuters)


Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

- A judge in New York sided with Apple Inc against the Justice Department, in a fight about whether the company can be forced to help unlock a phone - a ruling that could affect a similar case about an assailant's phone. (http://on.wsj.com/1ejfriJ)

- Valeant Pharmaceuticals said it is under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the latest issue to face the beleaguered drug company. (http://on.wsj.com/1L0SzDC)

- Deposits into personal accounts of Malaysia's prime minister totaled more than $1 billion - hundreds of millions more than previously identified - and global investigators believe much of it originated with a Malaysian state fund, people familiar with the matter say. (http://on.wsj.com/1L0Tcgz)

- Some of America's biggest shale producers are beginning to ratchet back oil and gas production for the first time in years, bending to the reality that a global glut will keep prices depressed. (http://on.wsj.com/1L0TzYr)



FT

The Bank of England and Financial Conduct Authority said on Monday that they do not agree with the EU rules forcing the bonus cap, applying to the big banks, on more than 1,000 smaller financial institutions across London.

AstraZeneca said on Monday it had sold the rights to two aging heart drugs to China Medical System Holdings for $500 million, marking the latest step in an ongoing programme of divestments for non-core assets.

French media group Vivendi raised its offer for mobile phone games company Gameloft SE on Monday after the latter rejected Vivendi's initial takeover bid hours earlier in the day.



NYT

- A federal magistrate judge on Monday denied the United States government's request that Apple extract data from an iPhone in a drug case in New York, giving the company's pro-privacy stance a boost as it battles law enforcement officials over opening up the device in other cases. (http://nyti.ms/1OJzctk)

- Valeant Pharmaceuticals International said on Monday it was being investigated by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the latest turn of events for the Canadian drug maker, which has come under recent scrutiny for its sky-high drug prices and a once-secret relationship with a mail-order pharmacy. (http://nyti.ms/1oKYFgQ)

- A non-profit watchdog group on Monday called for an investigation of David Stevens, chief executive of Mortgage Bankers Association, arguing that he may have violated ethics laws relating to his previous position as commissioner of the Federal Housing Administration. (http://nyti.ms/1XWNnT2)

- Argentina has agreed to pay $4.65 billion to four hedge funds in a deal that could put an end to more than a decade of mudslinging and legal attacks that had cut the country off from global financial markets. (http://nyti.ms/1LRyzye)



Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** The U.S Agriculture Department has given the Canadian Food Inspection Agency until mid-March to fix significant food safety and sanitation concerns found during an audit of Canada's meat, poultry and egg inspection systems. (http://bit.ly/1L1Bv0d)

** As Michael Pearson resumed CEO duties at Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc, his first day back included a backfired attempt to selectively address some analysts, a slew of negative research reports, a move by a rating agency to potentially downgrade the company and news that Valeant was under investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. (http://bit.ly/1L1ChdD)

NATIONAL POST

** Royal Bank of Canada's affordability calculator for the fourth quarter of 2015 found that households with median income must now pay 109 percent of pre-tax earnings to buy just an average home in the metro Vancouver area, leaving nothing for food, clothing or other essentials. (http://bit.ly/1L1D7ac)



Britain

The Times

* Households are borrowing more than 1 billion pound ($1.39 billion) each month to finance new cars, holidays and big-ticket consumer items in a spending splurge that economists warn could fuel another dangerous debt bubble, according to figures from the Bank of England. (http://thetim.es/1LR7D1o)

* The number of jobs being advertised online has fallen for the second month running in a sign that Britain's booming labour market may be running out of steam, according to Adzuna, a jobs search engine. (http://thetim.es/1LR8Ohj)

The Guardian

* More than 1,000 fund managers, hedge funds, brokers and smaller banks will be exempt from the EU's bonus cap after the Bank of England said it had concluded they did not fall within the scope of the rules. (http://bit.ly/1LR8kYA)

* China's central bank has stepped up action to bolster its cooling economy by loosening the rules on banks' cash reserves in the hope that they will offer cheaper loans. (http://bit.ly/1LR8mzQ)

The Telegraph

* Central banks must behave more like "pawnbrokers" to stamp out recklessness and put an end to taxpayer backed bailouts, according to the former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King. (http://bit.ly/1LR8q2y)

* Argentina's new market-friendly government has ended a bitter 15 year battle with creditors led by a US billionaire, opening the door for the South American country to escape financial pariah status. (http://bit.ly/1LR8wah)

Sky News

* A third of jobs in the retail sector will disappear by 2025 thanks to the rising minimum wage and new technology, the British Retail Consortium has said. (http://bit.ly/1LR8xet)

* Transferwise, UK-based fintech group, is close to finalising a new round of funding from prominent investors, according to Sky News. (http://bit.ly/1LR8y1L)

The Independent

* On Monday, Amazon revealed it has teamed up with WM Morrisons Supermarkets Plc to sell food through its Pantry site, even offering fresh food to its Prime Now delivery service customers in five English cities. (http://ind.pn/1LR8BuI)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-01/frontrunning-march-1
 

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#21
Stocks Squeeze Higher On "Super Tuesday" As Poor Macro Is Offset By Jack Lew's Soothing Words


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/01/2016 06:53 -0500

With markets happy to put February in the history books because it marked the fourth consecutive monthly decline in global stocks, we move on to March 1st, which doubles down as 'Super Tuesday' in the US when Trump's presidential candidacy will almost certainly be sealed and a day in which stocks decided to join the super fun by super surging overnight on nothing but bad global macro and economic which however was promptly ignored and instead the focus was on ongoing central bank intervention and even more jawboning.

As Bloomberg puts it "global stocks rallied, emerging-market currencies rose and crude oil climbed after investors across Asia responded favorably to stimulus in China" which is odd because the stimulus was announced over the weekend and stocks tumbled on Monday.

There were three key overnight news events:

1) the February plunge in China's PMI, which missed expectations and where the manufacturing index dropped to a 7 year low, while the service tumbled to the lowest level since 2008:





2) the collapse in Glencore's full year 2015 earnings, which just reported its worst year since going public, as net income plunged 69% to $1.34 billion, and the firm suffered an adjusted loss in its mining division, while announcing plans it will sell another $5 billion in assets.





3) the collapsing earnings and dividend cut by UK's Barclays, whose pretax earnings plunged 56%, sending the stock tumbling by 10%, the biggest crash since June 2012, on the bank's deteriorating outlook, the sale of its 62% stake in Barclays Africa, and cutting of the Barclays dividend.





On the surface, one would think that these are not exactly "good" developments and would not lead to a surge in overnight futures, and yet surge is precisely what global markets and US equity futures have done. What sparked the rebound? Well, the Shanghai Composite was largely unchanged for the day when shortly after midnight Eastern, US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew hit the tape when he spoke in briefing in Hong Kong after meeting Chinese officials in Beijing. And this is what unleashed the rally: Lew said that "China assured him it had no need or plans to devalue currency."

This of course, came one day after China engaged in the biggest currency devaluation in 8 weeks after the conclusion of the G-20 meeting.

The rest of the jawboning from Lew:

  • China’s policy makers gave commitment on reforms, rebalancing economy
  • Discussed need to improve communications
  • Says global economy faces headwinds, needs more demand
  • Lew said U.S. real economy continues to do pretty well
Was this the reason for the buying? Of course not, but it provided a handy cover for the BOJ's latest round of overnight USDJPY intervention which took the paid higher by 100 pips overnight, and since the markets make the news, why not ascribe the "buying catalyst" to Jack.

Elsewhere, European equities headed for a fourth day of gains for the first time since October as investors assessed earnings reports and deal activity. Russia’s ruble and South Africa’s rand led an advance among major currencies and the yuan strengthened for the first time in eight days after the People’s Bank of China cut lenders’ reserve requirements, freeing up funds to help spur lending. Germany’s bonds declined as nickel led gains in industrial metals prices and crude rose in New York. The cost of insuring corporate junk bonds in Europe fell for the fourth day, the longest run this year.

Where markets stand right now

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.8% to 1946
  • Stoxx 600 up 1% to 337
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.7% to 120
  • US 10-yr yield up 2bps to 1.75%
  • Dollar Index up 0.06% to 98.27
  • WTI Crude futures up 1.5% to $34.25
  • Brent Futures up 1% to $36.93
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,240
  • Silver spot down less than 0.1% to $14.90
Top Global News:

  • ICE Confirms It May Bid for LSE Group, Sending Shares to Record: Intercontinental Exchange said to work with Morgan Stanley, sees room to outbid German rival Deutsche Boerse despite risk.
  • Trump, Clinton Hope Super Tuesday Tightens Grip on Nomination: The two front-runners are expected to begin pulling away from their rivals when Tuesday’s results are tallied
  • Valeant Says It’s Under Investigation by SEC, Shares Plunge: Received a subpoena from the SEC in the fourth quarter and would have disclosed it in due course in its 10-K filing, which has been delayed
  • Peabody Energy Says It Has Held Talks With First Lien Lender: talks on its secured credit agreement regarding proposed bond exchanges and other issues, as plummeting coal prices spark an increase in debt defaults among U.S. coal companies
  • Apple Goes to Washington With Some Wind in Its Sails: Judge calls U.S. demand for help cracking iPhone ‘absurd’
  • Marathon Seeks $1.3 Billion in Stock Sale to Weather Rout: Sale would increase shares outstanding by about 20%. Morgan Stanley is acting as the book-running manager
  • BlackRock, Citi Say Buy Munis as Yields Climb From 50-Year Low: Increase in supply means a chance to lock-in higher yields. ‘Cheapness could be relatively short-lived,’ Citi’s Rai says
  • Exxon’s $12 Billion Bond Deal Doesn’t Make 2016 Any Sweeter: Signs that demand for U.S. corporate bonds is waning. Total issuance down about 3% from first 2 months of 2015
Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia where stocks initially traded mixed with choppy price action seen overnight as the region digested the surprise PBoC measures coupled with further weak Chinese data. Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) initially underperformed on JPY strength with declines to company profits and capital spending figures adding to the dampened tone. However, the index then recovered alongside a mild reversal in the currency. ASX 200 (+0.9%) was underpinned by commodity sector strength, while the Shanghai Comp (+1.7%) fluctuated between gains and losses as the PBoC 50bps RRR cut was counterbalanced by weak data in which Official and Caixin manufacturing PM's missed expectations to post a 7th month and 5th month in contraction territory respectively. 10yr JGBs traded flat despite weakness in Japanese equity markets and a weak 10yr JGB auction. As noted previously, Chinese Official Manufacturing PMI (Feb) M/M 49.0 vs. Exp. 49.4 (Prey. 49.4); 7th month of contraction & lowest since 2011.

Top Asian News

  • China’s PMI Reports Show Slowdown Deepening as Services Slip: Factory gauge hasn’t been at a weaker level for 7 yrs; services index slips to lowest since Dec. 2008
  • Japan Gets Paid to Borrow for 10 Years as Auction Yield Negative: ‘Ten-year yields have overheated,’ Barclays strategists say
  • Macau Casino Revenue Downturn Eases on Festive Fillip: Feb. decline smallest on record amid 21-month slump as operators turn more to mass market to offset VIPs
  • Templeton’s Man in China Predicts 20% Stock Rally as Panic Fades: Xu says worst is over after panicked investors caused the world’s deepest selloff
  • Sharp Faces Cash Squeeze as Foxconn Takeover Talks Drag On: Sharp has 510b yen ($4.5b) in credit lines and loans that are set to expire on March 31
European equities saw a move higher shortly after the open to see Euro Stoxx reside firmly in the green (+1.1%), with much of the strength coming in the wake of stock specific news. LSE (+7.5%) is among the best performers after news that ICE (ICE) are to rival Deutsche Boerse's bid, while BMW (+3.9%) are also among the best performers after some upbeat comments from the Co. at the Geneva motor show, which have helped support the DAX as the index future outperforms after breaking above the resistance level at 9600. Elsewhere, UK large cap Barclays (-11.0%) is among the worst performers after their pre-market earnings, with financials the softest sector in Europe.

In tandem with the upside in equities, fixed income has come under pressure so far today with Bunds back below 166.50, trading lower by around 50 ticks by the North American crossover. The downside in Bunds shortly after the European equity cash open was attributed by some desks to high volume, in the form of 5000 lots being traded in under a 1 minute period. However more generally, the pressure on the German benchmark also comes as a result of sovereign hedging amid deals from Finland and Belgium, combined with a reversal from yesterday's month end-inspired moves.

Top European News

  • Barclays to Reduce Africa Stake, Cut Dividend in Revamp Plan: Will sell down its 62% stake in Barclays Africa over the next 2 to 3 years to a level that allows it to deconsolidate the business; FY adj. pretax, including restructuring costs, fell 56% to GBP247m, missed GBP519m est.; cut its dividend to 3p/shr for 2016 and 2017, from 6.5p last year
  • Glencore Posts Biggest Profit Drop Since IPO on Metals Slump: 2015 net income ex- some items down 69% to $1.34b as prices for metals and oil collapsed, to sell as much as $5b in assets
  • Gameloft, Ubisoft Shares Jump on Vivendi’s Renewed Deal Push: Vivendi plans a tender offer for Gameloft shares at EU7.20 each, vs original EU6; also raised its stake in Ubisoft above 15%, said plans to keep buying shares, seek board representation
  • Euro-Area Unemployment Drops to 4-Year Low Amid Stimulus Debate: Region’s Jan. jobless rate declined to 10.3%, lowest since Aug. 2011, beat median forecast of 10.4%
  • U.K. Manufacturing Has Its Worst Month in Almost Three Years: Markit Economics said its factory index dropped to 50.8 from 52.9, marking the weakest reading since April 2013
  • Handelsbanken Falls After Regulator Raises Capital Requirements: Swedish regulator ordered lenders in the country to increase corporate risk weights by “at least a few percentage points”
  • Fiat Makes Biggest Europe Push in Decade to Rescue 2018 Strategy: Showing 10 new models at Geneva Motor Show this week
In currencies, the yen dropped against 31 major peers, falling from strongest level in almost three years against the euro. It declined 0.5 percent to 113.22 per dollar and slipped 0.4 percent to 122.96 per euro.

Russia’s ruble rose 2 percent versus the dollar and Malaysia’s ringgit strengthened 0.7 percent as the rebound in crude prices brightened prospects for the oil-exporting nations. South Africa’s rand jumped 1 percent as data showed foreign investors on Monday pumped the most money into the nation’s stock market since 2009. A Bloomberg gauge of 20 developing-nation currencies rose 0.5 percent, extending Monday’s advance. The measure increased 0.3 percent in February after falling 5.1 percent over the previous three months

In commodities, oil climbed from the highest close in more than seven weeks following the first monthly decline in production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries since November. West Texas Intermediate rose as much as 1.7 percent to $34.32 a barrel. Iraq’s production dropped by 125,000 barrels a day to 4.385 million after the pipeline exporting crude from the northern part of the country was halted, according to a Bloomberg survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. Saudi Arabian output was unchanged at 10.2 million barrels a day.

U.S. natural gas futures fell 0.3 percent to $1.706 per million British thermal units, extending the biggest monthly drop since 2014 on mild weather and record inventories of the heating fuel.

Nickel led gains in industrial metals, rising 0.9 percent to $8,600 a metric ton. Aluminum added 0.6 percent while copper climbed 0.4 percent.

In today's US calendar, all eyes will be on the US ISM manufacturing data while vehicle sales (expected: 17.70m), construction spending (expected: 0.3%), IBD/TIPP economic optimism data (expected: 47.9) and the manufacturing PMI (expected 51.2) are also due.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • European equities followed on from their Asian counterparts to trade in positive territory, despite underperformance in financials
  • JPY and GBP have been among the more notable FX movers this morning, with risk off sentiment sending USD/JPY higher, with GBP also heading upwards this morning towards 1.4000
  • Today's highlights include US ISM manufacturing, manufacturing PMI and construction spending, Canadian GDP, API Inventories, Fonterra GDT Auction and comments from ECB's Lautenschlaeger
  • Treasuries lower in overnight trading as global equity markets and commodities rally, spurred by China’s announced cut to banks’ required reserves; today’s economic data includes ISM and vehicle sales.
  • China’s benchmark money-market rate declined the most in more than three weeks after the central bank reduced the amount of deposits that lenders must set aside in reserve; will inject about 685 billion yuan ($105 billion) into the financial system
  • China’s factory gauge extended its stretch of deteriorating conditions to a record seven months while a measure of services fell to the weakest in seven years
  • The Japanese government got paid to borrow money for a decade for the first time, selling ¥2.2 trillion ($19.5 billion) of the debt at an average yield of negative 0.024% on Tuesday
  • Euro-area unemployment decreased to lowest in more than four years in January, giving European Central Bank policy makers some positive news a week before their monetary policy meeting
  • Euro-area factories cut prices at the fastest pace in almost three years in February as Markit Economics said the price gauge of its manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell further below the key 50 level, to the lowest since June 2013
  • Barclays Plc fell the most in more than three years in London trading amid investor concern that the bank’s profit outlook is weakening as the firm slashed its dividend
  • U.K. manufacturing grew the least in almost three years in February and new orders barely rose, highlighting the fragility of the economy as it heads into an uncertain year
  • Greece’s creditors hit a roadblock over the conditions for disbursing the next portion of emergency loans to Europe’s most indebted state, as PM Tsipras pointed the finger at the IMF for yet another delay in the review of the country’s bailout
  • Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton hope to use a pair of dominant Super Tuesday performances to all but cement a White House match-up this fall, as roughly a quarter of the nation votes in the biggest day so far in the 2016 campaign
  • $17.4b IG corporates priced yesterday, MTD volume $124.9b, YTD $294.25b
  • BofAML Corporate Master Index OAS 6bp lower yesterday at +205, +3bp MTD, +32bp YTD; T1Y range 221/129
  • BofAML High Yield Master II OAS 5bp lower yesterday at +775, -2bp MTD, +80bp YTD; T1Y range 887/438
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mostly steady; European, Asian markets rise; U.S. equity- index futures higher. Crude oil rallies, copper, gold higher
US Event Calendar

  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Feb F, est. 51.2 (prior 51)
  • 10:00am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, March, est. 47.9 (prior 47.8)
  • 10:00am: ISM Manufacturing, Feb., est. 48.5 (prior 48.2)
    • ISM Prices Paid, Feb., est. 35 (prior 33.5)
    • ISM New Orders, Feb. (prior 51.5)
  • 10:00am: Construction Spending m/m, Jan., est. 0.3% (prior 0.1%)
  • TBA: Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales, Feb., est. 13.83m (prior 13.79m)
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales, Feb., est. 17.7m (prior 17.46m)
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We'll dive straight into the Asian numbers starting with a disappointing PMI report from China overnight. The Manufacturing PMI series came in at 49.0 in February which is sequentially weaker than the 49.4 we saw in January and at 7 year lows. The market consensus was for an unchanged print of 49.4 in February. In terms of the details, new orders and the employment sub-series also slipped. There was some chatter that the Chinese New Year holidays helped keep the number weak but on the flip side this should have helped services. On this non-manufacturing PMI also came in sequentially weaker in February at 52.7 vs 53.5 (lowest since 2008) but at least it remains in expansionary territory even if new orders, selling prices, employment, backlog and inventories were worryingly below 50. The Caixin China PMI Manufacturing series also came out slightly below consensus overnight at 48.0 (est 48.4). Turning to Japan we saw the final Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing come in at 50.1 which is also a drop from January’s 52.3 reading.

Markets in Asia are mixed after the numbers. The Shanghai Comp is -0.68% as we go to print but many other EM equities are higher. The Hang Seng is broadly flat with the Nikkei -0.26%. One unprecedented move overnight has been that Japan has priced a 10yr government debt auction at a negative average yield for the first time. It drew an average yield of minus 0.024%. Also overnight FRB of NY President Dudley (whilst in China) has said his confidence in the Fed hitting its 2% inflation target over time has slipped and that he has edged down his growth expectations.

Back to the PMIs, the key release today will be the US manufacturing ISM. Although it's expected to edge up from 48.2 to 48.5, this will still mark the 5th successive sub-50 print. Whilst manufacturing makes up only around 10% of the US economy, Joe LaVorgna points out that it is highly cyclical and is normally predictive of wider economic trends. The correlation between this number and annual real US GDP is 0.7 since 1948. At the moment none of us truly know whether there can be decoupling. With low energy prices, if there was ever a time where there could be some decoupling then this would be it. Thursday's services ISM will give us a fuller picture though so it's an important week before we even get to Friday's payrolls.

Related to the PMIs, US data wasn't great yesterday after a good recent run. The ISM Milwaukee survey was the only bright spot, as it rose to 55.2 in February (vs. 50 expected; 50.36 prior). However, many of the more closely watched indicators definitely threw up some red flags. The recently very volatile Chicago Area PMI fell more than expected to 47.6 (vs. 52.5 expected; 55.6 prior), one again raising concerns regarding the US manufacturing sector. Adding to these concerns, the Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing outlook also disappointed (-31.8 vs. -30.0 expected; -34.6 prior) despite showcasing some improvement. Pending Home sales data was also a major red flag, as the index fell by -2.5% mom (vs. +0.5% expected; +0.1% prior) in January. This was the biggest drop since December 2013, with sales dropping in 3 out of 4 regions included in the index.

However China's latest easing overshadowed the data. Last week we saw PBoC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan state that China still had ‘monetary policy space and multiple policy instruments to address possible downside risks’ and whilst some were expecting action over the weekend, yesterday we saw the PBoC demonstrate one such instrument by cutting the required reserve ratio (RRR) by 50 bp. According to our Chief China Economist Zhiwei Zhang, this is a sign of further policy easing and strengthens the case for their baseline expectations of 3 more RRR cuts (one per quarter) and 2 interest rate cuts (Q3 and Q4) in 2016. While such policy easing benefits short term investment growth and increases upside risks to our economists’ Q2 GDP forecast of 6.8% YoY, it actually raises downside growth risks in H2 and 2017 by exacerbating industrial excess capacity problems and the inflating the property bubble.

European equity markets brushed off the soft start following the inconclusive G20 meeting, China's pre RRR cut equity sell-off and Monday's weak economic data to end the day in the green. European equities rallied late in the day as the STOXX erased early losses and closed up +0.72%. Basic Resources equities (+3.43%) shot up as China announced more easing measures for its economy, while oil and gas stocks (+1.51%) also gained as crude prices rallied a percent or so. US equities slumped after Europe closed though with the S&P 500 declining 26 points from these highs to close -0.81% and in the process wiping out February's hard earn recovery into positive return territory. Meanwhile Valeant (a top 5 largest US HY issuer in the index) fell 18% on the equity market as the company announced it was under investigation by the SEC. Spreads widened 75-100bps on the news.

Back to Europe, soft data and heightened expectations of ECB easing drove European government bond yields lower once again. German bond yields fell across all maturities from 1-10 years, with the 10Y yield 4bps lower at 0.106bp and close to getting back into single digits bps again. The impact of China' easing and the building expectation of ECB easing was also seen in credit markets, with iTraxx Senior spreads tightening by 4.2bps while iTraxx Sub spreads tightening by 3.4 bps, thus continuing their rally from last week.

The renewed ECB hope was based on further gloomy European data. Following deflationary numbers out of Germany and France last week, inflation numbers for Italy (-0.2% YoY vs. +0.1% expected; +0.4% prior) and the Euro Area (-0.2% YoY vs. 0.0% expected; +0.3% prior) also turned negative in February. The cynic would certainly argue that after nearly a year of QE and an additional EU587bn on their balance sheet, inflation back below zero shows that the ECB has failed. However one must take into account that they are fairly powerless to counteract the huge price drop in oil and other commodities and also one wonders where inflation might have been if they had not printed over half a trillion Euros! A scary thought.

Below we look at the data day ahead, US politics will be in the spotlight today as Super Tuesday will see 12 states and one territory cast their votes for the Republican and Democratic nominees. It is the biggest day of the 2016 primary: roughly half of the delegates needed for a Republican candidate and one-third of the number needed for a Democratic candidate will be awarded here. Most polls (NBC News/WSJ) indicate Trump and Clinton to be the leading candidates for their respective parties across a number of participating states. Key results to watch for would be whether Texas Senator Ted Cruz can post a strong performance in Texas and level the playing field with Trump, and whether Clinton can further extend her lead over Sanders. Polls close in most states by 7 pm or 8 pm ET, though results will still be coming in tomorrow.

Taking a look at the day ahead in Europe, we have some key indicators to watch with the ECB meeting next week. We get the final February manufacturing PMI data for the Euro Area (expected 51.0) as well as regional data for Germany, France, UK, Spain and Italy. The Euro Area January unemployment rate (expected 10.4%) is also due. Over in the US, all eyes should be on the US ISM manufacturing data (as discussed above) while vehicle sales (expected: 17.70m), construction spending (expected: 0.3%), IBD/TIPP economic optimism data (expected: 47.9) and the manufacturing PMI (expected 51.2) are also due.

Today is quieter in terms of Central Bank speak: We are only scheduled to hear from Williams (President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) and from Coeure from the ECB.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...ay-poor-macro-offset-jack-lews-soothing-words
 

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#25
It's Tax Scam Time Watch Out! | Sandy Botkin
FinanceAndLiberty.com


Published on Mar 1, 2016
Noted CPA and attorney reminds us yet again that it's IRS Scam time. We're not talking about what the IRS is doing but rather scammers pretending to be from the government and either demanding money from you or demanding data that they can use to steal your identity. The first rule to understand is that the IRS will never call you first, asking for money. Their primary collection tool is the US Mail. If someone calls you asking for money, hang up. That will eliminate many potential scams and keep you safe.

This video was posted with permission from http://FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com

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#26
Global Bankers Plan Global Stimulus
Fabian4Liberty


Published on Feb 29, 2016
 

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#29

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#30
DOLLAR WEAKNESS & GOLD RUSH 2016 | Alasdair MacLeod
FinanceAndLiberty.com


Published on Mar 1, 2016
IN THIS INTERVIEW: - New bull market starting in the precious metal markets ►0:48
- U.S. dollar has topped ►4:00
- Negative interest rates will cause stagflation ►7:57
- NIRP will cause a run for gold ►13:59
- Global stock market crash ►18:24
- How to be protected from crises ►20:41

GUEST: http://GoldMoney.com & http://FinanceAndEconomics.org
SPONSOR: http://SDBullion.com

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DISCLAIMER: The financial and political opinions expressed in this interview are those of the guest and not necessarily of "Finance and Liberty" or its staff. Opinions expressed in this video do not constitute personalized investment advice and should not be relied on for making investment decisions.
 

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#32

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#33
Autopsy of the Middle Class? Fight Back! | Wayne Allyn Root
Reluctant Preppers


Published on Mar 1, 2016
What's really happening to the middle class: careers and employment, liberty and privacy, health and well-being, opportunity to thrive and upward mobility? Two-years after appearing on ReluctantPreppers to unveil his best-selling book "Murder of the Middle Class", 2008 US Vice Presidential Libertarian candidate, serial entrepreneur and author Wayne Allyn Root returns to deliver a scathing critique of Obama's economy and the state of the real family. With rapid-fire facts and blistering stats, Root exposes the true antagonism of the government of both major parties against self-reliant individuals & families.
An energized optimist, Root, whose latest book, "The Power of Relentless" just made the New York Times best seller list, spells out in crystal clear terms what serious citizens can and must do now to protect our families and secure our future.

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#34
Andy Hoffman-Gold and Silver Shortages Coming This Year
Greg Hunter


Published on Mar 1, 2016
The U.S. Mint had a record month in February and sold a million ounces per week. Hoffman says, “This is with the mint allocating a million ounces a week, which is why they sold four million ounces. So, overall, they are at a pace to sell 50% more than they did in last year’s record level. That’s because it is foreigners that are buying it. The reason I know this is because I am getting emails from people from Japan telling me that we cannot buy silver. Can you get it for us? A customer from Australia told me the Perth Mint is sold out of almost all silver products. We haven’t seen this in many years. Why the demand from places like Australia? In Australia, the Australian dollar has gotten crushed, and Australian people are clamoring for precious metals. The price of gold in Australian dollars is almost at an all-time high. So, here in the United States, it’s a little less muted, but business is very brisk. In all the other parts of the world where currencies have crashed and prices are surging, either you cannot get product or you are going to have a very difficult time to get it. America is always the last to go on that ladder. So, when you start to see those shortages abroad, you know that something is afoot. . . . Given that it is untenable that we will survive without another major crisis in this country, I think we are going to see shortages in the U.S. later this year sometime.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Andy Hoffman, Marketing Director at Miles Franklin, precious metals experts.

All links for this post can be found on USAWatchdog.com
 

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#35
Frontrunning: March 2


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/02/2016 07:27 -0500

  • Trump, Clinton capture key wins on Super Tuesday (Reuters)
  • Hillary Clinton Triumphs in Delegate-Rich Super Tuesday States (WSJ)
  • S&P 500 Futures Follow Oil Lower, Erase Gain After Super Tuesday (BBG)
  • Oil below $37 as U.S. inventory rise counters output freeze plan (Reuters)
  • Wall Street's big short: President Donald J. Trump (Reuters)
  • Ex-Chesapeake CEO McClendon Indicted Over Lease Bid Rigging (BBG)
  • Port Sale Highlights Western Australia’s Sinking Fortunes (WSJ)
  • Texas abortion case goes before shorthanded U.S. Supreme Court (Reuters)
  • Valeant CEO Races to Repair Drug Maker’s Reputation (WSJ)
  • The Rise and Fall of Commodities Hedge Fund King Willem Kooyker (BBG)
  • U.S. Shoppers Heeding Loonie's Call Flock to Canada's Websites (BBG)
  • Chinese Hedge-Fund Firms Head for Hong Kong (WSJ)
  • Mexicans Are Disappearing From Texas in Latest Twist on Oil Bust (BBG)
  • Crime Wave Lashes Venezuela’s Already Battered Farms (WSJ)
  • Molotovs and Death Threats: Russian Debt Collectors Go Medieval (BBG)
  • Ranks of World's Wealthiest Thin Most Since the Financial Crisis (BBG)
  • Elections gains unlikely to shift Iran power balance fast (Reuters)
  • Alibaba Affiliate Ant Financial Seeks Stake in Caixin Media (WSJ)


Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

- Republican front-runner Donald Trump won seven Super Tuesday presidential contests, while Ted Cruz won two to ensure the GOP race will stretch into the spring. For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton took seven delegate-rich states and Bernie Sanders claimed four others in the biggest voting day of the primary season. (http://on.wsj.com/1LU4xd3)

- Aubrey McClendon, one of the pioneers of the U.S. shale boom, was indicted by a federal grand jury Tuesday on charges of conspiring with an unnamed company to rig the price of oil and gas leases in Oklahoma. (http://on.wsj.com/1LU5d24)

- FBI director James Comey conceded that a mistake was made in the early days of the investigation into the San Bernardino, California, attack, making it harder to get data from one of the shooters' phones. (http://on.wsj.com/1LU5e6c)

- Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd recently revived its efforts to buy CSX Corp in the latest sign of its eagerness to bring consolidation to the industry. (http://on.wsj.com/1LU5q5h)

- The Sports Authority plans to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and shut down in the coming weeks if the struggling retailer can't find a buyer for its business. (http://on.wsj.com/1LU5nXe)



FT

New York Stock Exchange owner ICE said it may make a rival bid for London Stock Exchange, raising the prospect of a takeover battle with Deutsche Boerse.

South African retailer Steinhoff International's unit, Conforama, is considering a possible cash offer for UK-listed white goods chain Darty Plc

Schroders Plc, Britain's biggest listed fund manager, is set to announce Chief Executive Michael Dobson will step down.



NYT

- The head of the FBI acknowledged on Tuesday that his agency lost a chance to capture data from the iPhone used by one of the San Bernardino attackers when it ordered that his password to the online storage service iCloud be reset shortly after the rampage.(http://nyti.ms/1REntkx)

- The Justice Department announced Tuesday night that it had charged Aubrey McClendon, an Oklahoma wildcatter who turbocharged the shale revolution by buying up gas fields across the United States, with conspiring to suppress prices paid for oil and natural gas leases.(http://nyti.ms/1XZBITD)

- Brazilian federal police arrested a Facebook executive on Tuesday after the company failed to turn over information from a WhatsApp messaging account that a judge had requested for a drug trafficking investigation. (http://nyti.ms/21Bph61)

- The Hachette Book Group has reached an agreement to buy Perseus Books Group's publishing business, 18 months after its previous attempt to acquire the company fell through. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. (http://nyti.ms/1T79hUf)



Britain

The Times

Shares in Barclays Plc slumped 8 per cent yesterday after the bank cut its dividend in half and pledged to speed up its restructuring as it struggles to boost growth. (thetim.es/24zOn4c)

Intercontinental Exchange Inc, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, confirmed in a statement yesterday that it was "considering making an offer" for the LSE, although no approach has been made and "no decision has yet been made as to whether to pursue such an offer". (thetim.es/1oNzQ3Y)

The Guardian

Sports Direct International Plc has been relegated from the FTSE 100 following a torrid three months in which 1.6 billion stg has been wiped from the retailer's value after a Guardian investigation into working conditions and a slump in trading at its stores. (bit.ly/24z4rD5)

The chairman of Barclays Plc has hit out against the 20 billion stg in fines and taxes imposed on the bank in recent years as it chopped its dividend and announced it was scaling back in Africa to focus on the UK and U.S. (bit.ly/1QIys9m)

The Telegraph

Europe's deep economic malaise is the result of "deliberate" policy choices made by EU elites, according to the former governor of the Bank of England. (bit.ly/1Tm4EpV)

Sky News

Britain's six lenders - including Barclays, HSBC Holdings Plc, and the state-backed Lloyds Banking Group Plc - are preparing to submit a proposal to the Treasury under which they would guarantee around 17 billion stg of financing to the purchasers of the B&B loans. (bit.ly/21AZYkh)

Greggs Plc is cutting up to 355 jobs as it shuts three of its bakery sites under a 100 million stg restructuring plan. (bit.ly/1ONxPKd)

The Independent

Britain's largest developers have been accused of profiteering on the back of the country's housing crisis by restricting the supply of new houses to keep prices unnecessarily high. Latest figures reveal that a record half a million homes in England now have planning permission granted but have yet to be built. (ind.pn/1TPXJnn)



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-02/frontrunning-march-2
 

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#36
Furious Rally Fizzles Overnight As Futures Follow Oil Lower


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/02/2016 06:47 -0500


Following yesterday's torrid 2.4% March opening rally, which resulted in the biggest S&P gain since January and the best first day of March in history on what was initially seen as very bad news, and then reinterpreted as great news, overnight futures have taken a breather, and erased a modest overnight continuation rally to track the price of oil lower.

Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in March fell 0.2 percent to 1974, erasing an earlier rise of as high as 0.3 percent as Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton solidified their positions in the race to their parties’ presidential nominations following yesterday's Super Tuesday primaries. As the chart below shows, the oil/equities correlation is once again dominant...



... which has meant an initial weakness for both the Emini and WTI following yesterday's gargantuan API build. However, with official DOE data on deck in a few hours, all that will take for oil to jump higher is for the announced inventory build to be just fractionally less than the 9.9 million barrels the API reported, and the HFT algos will be off to the races again, chasing Brent and WTI higher.

AS Bloomberg notes in its Super Tuesday recap, Clinton dominated Democratic Party primary contests held on Tuesday, beating rival Bernie Sanders, and Trump boosted his chances of securing the Republican Party nomination. The impact on trading was muddied as global equities rebounded on the U.S. economic data and amid stability in China markets that spurred risk-taking.



The eighth year of a presidency typically ranks last in terms of equity returns, and the first half of an election year is often even worse. Add everything else that has been weighing on markets in 2016, from China to oil and the Federal Reserve, and few money managers see a return to the calm that reigned from 2012 to 2015.

Among the other top overnight news, fracking pioneer McClendon accused of rigging Oklahoma bids, Pimco’s Jon Short leaving to join Zwirn’s Arena hedge fund, Starbucks former COO Alstead permanently resigns from company, and China's rating outlook was put on negative by Moody's.

Global market snapshot:

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 1974
  • Stoxx 600 up 0.4% to 340
  • FTSE 100 up 0.2% to 6167
  • DAX up 0.3% to 9742
  • German 10Yr yield up 5bps to 0.2%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up 2bps to 1.4%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield up 2bps to 1.51%
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 2.8% to 123
  • Nikkei 225 up 4.1% to 16747
  • Hang Seng up 3.1% to 20003
  • Shanghai Composite up 4.3% to 2850
  • S&P/ASX 200 up 2% to 5021
  • US 10-yr yield up 2bps to 1.84%
  • Dollar Index up 0.13% to 98.48
  • WTI Crude futures down 2% to $33.72
  • Brent Futures down 0.8% to $36.50
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,230
  • Silver spot down less than 0.1% to $14.82
Top News:

  • Fracking Pioneer McClendon Accused of Rigging Oklahoma Bids: Facing allegations he worked with an unidentified competitor to keep the price of leasing drilling rights artificially low.
  • Pimco’s Jon Short Leaving to Join Zwirn’s Arena Hedge Fund: Will be president at Arena, which specializes in lending to companies that are unable to get bank loans.
  • Starbucks’ Former COO Alstead Permanently Resigns From Company: Had been on unpaid sabbatical for a year to spend more time with his family. Before that was considered a contender to succeed Chief Executive Officer
  • Super Tuesday Wins Tighten Clinton, Trump Grasp on Nominations: Clinton takes seven states helped by women and black voters. Blue-collar anger fuels Trump’s victories over Cruz, Rubio


Looking at regional markets, as usual we start in Asia where equities took the impetus from the strong close on Wall St. where strong data and gains in the energy complex bolstered sentiment. Nikkei 225 (+4.1%) outperformed with exporters lifted by a weaker JPY and strong performances in automakers after encouraging US auto sales results, while the ASX 200 (+2.0%) was underpinned by the resurgence in the energy sector as well as better than expected domestic GDP data. Shanghai Comp (+4.3%) conformed to the upbeat tone as material names spurred the index after cement capacity reduction plans and several regional measures were announced to support the property industry. 10yr JGBs declined amid spill-over selling from USTs after firm US data bolstered risk sentiment and US economic confidence, to the detriment of safe-haven assets. As reported last night, Moody's affirmed China's Aa3 rating, but revised its outlook to negative from stable.

Top Asian News:

  • China Rating Outlook Cut as Moody’s Warns of Debt, Reform Risks: Cites surging debt burden, questions the government’s ability to enact reforms
  • Aussie Economy Exceeds Forecasts as Households Open Wallets: Showing increased signs of transition to services; GDP growth fastest since early 2014
  • China Resources to Buy Out Snow Beer Unit for $1.6 Billion: Shares jump as deal gives company full ownership of world’s best-selling beer
  • Hong Kong Bourse Net Rises 54 Percent to a Record $1 Billion: 4Q net income and revenue little changed y/y, at HK$1.5b and HK$2.8b, respectively
  • Jack Ma’s Ant Financial Said to Be in Talks for Caixin Stake: Caixin has been discussing stake sale w/ Ma’s Zhejiang Ant Small & Micro Financial
  • Philippine Gaming Regulator Probes Money-Laundering Allegations: Up to $100m of suspicious funds were remitted to 3 casinos’ bank accounts
  • Japan Pension Whale’s $41 Billion Gain Masks Hard Time Ahead: Govt Pension Investment Fund heading for losses at start of 2016, councilor says
In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.4 percent, with banks leading gains. The equity benchmark closed above its 50-day moving average on Tuesday, capping its longest winning streak since October. MorphoSys AG climbed 6.7 percent after reporting better-than-estimated 2015 earnings. Virgin Money Holdings (UK) Plc jumped 7.3 percent after posting a fourfold increase in pretax profit for last year. Luxottica Group SpA slid 3.4 percent as Exane BNP Paribas noted that the Ray-Ban maker lowered its “rule of thumb” outlook for net income growth. Despite the upside seen in equities, energy names underperform today to weigh in the index, in tandem with energy prices coming off their best levels in the wake of yesterday's API crude oil inventory build.

Top European News:

  • EU Alternatives Won’t Help U.K. Post-‘Brexit,’ Government Says: Alternative trading arrangements with the European Union in the event of a British departure from the bloc pose “serious risks” to the prosperity of Britain, Prime Minister David Cameron’s government said.
  • Rolls-Royce Names ValueAct’s Singer to Board Amid Overhaul: Chief Executive Officer Warren East tries to revive earnings growth at the troubled aircraft engine maker
  • Swiss Economy Grows Most in a Year on Domestic Demand: Fourth-quarter GDP rose 0.4% vs estimate for 0.1% increase. SNB expects growth to accelerate in 2016 versus last year
  • CaixaBank Said to Be in Talks With Dos Santos on BPI Stake: CaixaBank SA, Spain’s third-largest bank, is in talks with Angolan investor Isabel dos Santos to acquire her stake in Portugal’s Banco BPI SA
  • Billionaire Fredriksen Sells $510 Million Marine Harvest Stake: Geveran Trading Co., a company controlled by shipping and oil billionaire John Fredriksen, sold a 4.42 billion krone ($510 million) stake in Marine Harvest ASA after a surge in prices
In FX, the yen weakened against 13 of its 16 major counterparts, sliding the most against the currencies of South Korea and Australia. It weakened 0.4 percent to 114.42 per dollar. The Aussie strengthened for a third day, climbing 0.5 percent versus the greenback. Australia’s commodity-dependent economy expanded 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous period, faster than the 0.4 percent growth forecast in a Bloomberg survey. South Korea’s won rose 0.8 percent, making it the best performer among major currencies.

Another weak PMI from the UK, this time in construction (54.2 vs. Exp. 55.5), added to fresh pressure on GBP, this coming through EUR/GBP which now looks set for a short squeeze higher despite the impending actions from the ECB next week. EUR/USD has also garnered a bid in this respect, though we expect the 1.0800 near term target close in proximity is limiting the downside from here. AUD gains post strong GDP overnight have stalled, with resistance in the mid .7200's deterring for now. All eyes on US ADPs later today.

A Bloomberg gauge of 20 developing-nation currencies was little changed after climbing 1.3 percent in two days. The Russian ruble and South Africa’s rand lost at least 0.6 percent, while currencies in Asia advanced.

The yuan traded in Hong Kong fell 0.09 percent to 6.5541 per dollar. The People’s Bank of China lowered its reference rate by 0.16 percent. China’s credit-rating outlook was lowered to negative from stable at Moody’s Investors Service, citing concerns about rising government debt and falling currency reserves in its decision to reduce the outlook.

In commodities, WTI crude future pared some of yesterday's gains after a larger than expected build in API crude inventories (9900K vs. Exp. 3600K, Prey. 7100K) to fall back below the USD 34/bbl level . Elsewhere, gold has seen modest declines as the heightened risk appetite dampened safe-haven demand, while copper and iron prices advanced to 3-month and near 6-month highs respectively, on the upbeat sentiment with the latter back above the USD 50/ton level.

"Any rally that we see will be subdued because of the large crude inventory,” David Lennox, an analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney, said by phone. “We really need to see production cuts if we’re going to get any sustained gain in oil."

Copper climbed 1.5 percent in London. Codelco, the world’s biggest producer of the metal, expects a global surplus will persist through next year and that recent price gains are unlikely to be sustained, Chairman Oscar Landerretche said in an interview. Glencore Plc Chief Executive Officer Ivan Glasenberg said Tuesday that he now sees commodity prices bottoming.

On today's US calendar, we get the ADP employment change data for February due (expected: 188k), which should be watched closely ahead of the employment report on Friday. The Fed is also releasing the Beige book today. Aside from economic data, the release of the remaining results from Super Tuesday in the US should take centre stage.

Bulleting Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • Bunds fall today to reside firmly in the red as risk on sentiment remains, seeing equities trade higher for the 5th straight day
  • JPY is once again one of the most notable movers in FX markets, firmly back above 114.00 while AUD benefitted overnight from domestic GDP data
  • Today's highlights include US ADP, DoE Inventories, BoE's Cunliffe and Fed's Williams
  • Treasuries lower in overnight trading as world equity markets rally despite Moody’s downgrade of China’s outlook to negative from stable, citing the country’s rising debt burden. Today’s economic data includes Fed Beige Book and ISM New York.
  • China’s stocks rallied the most since November, led by property companies and commodity producers, on speculation the government will announce measures to boost growth at legislative meetings this week
  • The European Central Bank is monitoring the risk that negative rates will hurt bank profitability while sticking to its commitment to deliver price stability first, Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure said
  • French banks entered a tumultuous 2016 with the strongest earnings in almost a decade and pledged to reward shareholders with higher dividends
  • A drive to tighten rules over how much sovereign debt banks are allowed to own has led to Italy’s PM Matteo Renzi vowing to veto any attempt to cap holdings. Italian government securities account for 10.4% of the country’s bank assets
  • The Swiss economy returned to growth at the end of last year as gross domestic product rose 0.4% in the fourth quarter -- the most in a year -- after shrinking 0.1% in the previous three months
  • Australia’s gross domestic product advanced 0.6% in the fourth quarter from three months earlier, when it rose an upwardly revised 1.1% that was the biggest increase since early 2012
  • The pace at which earnings estimates are being cut is getting worse; analysts just reduced income estimates for the first quarter at a rate that more than doubled the average pace of deterioration in the last five years
  • Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump emerged from Super Tuesday as the odds-on favorites to capture their party’s presidential nominations, setting them up for a White House showdown
  • As Trump continued to gather sweeping victories from New England to the Deep South, the urgent calls from establishment Republicans to stop him only grew louder and more apocalyptic.
  • $16.8b IG corporates priced yesterday, brings YTD to $311.05b; $1.5b HY priced, YTD $16.355b
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mixed with Greece 23bp lower; European, Asian markets mostly higher; U.S. equity- index futures lower. Crude oil drops, copper up, gold down
US Data Highlights

  • 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Feb. 26 (prior -4.3%)
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, Feb., est. 190k (prior 205k)
  • 9:45am: ISM New York, Feb. (prior 54.6)
  • 11:00am: Fed’s Williams speaks in San Ramon, Calif.
  • 2:00pm: Fed releases Beige Book
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We're definitely in a period where good news equals good news with no immediate concern about what it might mean for say Fed expectations. Indeed yesterday there was a notable relief rally on the back of signs of US manufacturing slightly improving in February. The S&P 500 closed +2.4% and to 7-week highs and WTI closed 1.9% higher at $34.40 - also around 7-week highs. Much of the improved sentiment was based around the all important ISM manufacturing (49.5 vs. 48.5 expected; 48.2 prior) beating expectations and on a similar note, the Markit manufacturing PMI also marginally surprising to the upside (51.3 vs. 51.2 expected; 52.4 prior) even if it signalled a slower rate of expansion as compared to January. The ISM prices paid index posted at 38.5 (vs. 35.0 expected; 33.5 prior) which also helped. Away from manufacturing, Construction spending was another bright spot as it rose by 1.5% mom in January (vs. 0.3% expected; 0.6% prior). Auto Sales rebounded in February after a softer start to the year where seasonally adjusted sales reached 17.5million (16-year high for the month). On a more negative note however, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index for March fell below expectations (46.8 vs. 47.8 expected), with economic outlook falling to 41.2 (vs. 42.5 prior).

Turning to the Super Tuesday developments overnight, Bloomberg is reporting seven wins to Clinton and Trump who are dominating their respective fields. Senator Ted Cruz has claimed his home state Texas as well as Oklahoma which was key for him to stay in the race. Senator Rubio had a disappointing day where he was only able to win Minnesota and appears to already be focusing on his campaign in his home state Florida (does not vote until 15 March). Bernie Sanders managed to win in his home state of Vermont, Minnesota, Colorado, and Oklahoma.

In terms of key market development, Moody’s outlook change on China’s Aa3 rating to Negative was perhaps the main event. The outlook change was driven by concerns around weakening fiscal metrics, the ongoing fall in reserve buffers due to capital outflows and uncertainties around China’s capacity to implement key reforms.

Whilst China sovereign CDS is only 1bp wider at 134bp, it still marks a decent underperformance what has been a fairly positive tone for other risk assets overnight. Indeed the Asia and Australia iTraxx indices are around 8bp tighter, respectively. China IG benchmark cash spreads are around 2-3bps tighter. China equity markets are over 2% higher and the offshore RMB has been fairly stable anchored at around 6.553 against the Dollar. The Asian session this morning is definitely taking the lead from the positive US session overnight. The Nikkei (+4.4%) and the Hang Seng (+3.0%) indices are trading up strongly as we go to print.

Reviewing the European data yesterday. The Eurozone manufacturing February PMI clocked in marginally above expectations at 51.2 (vs. 51.0 expected/flash estimate) but still representing a 12 month low. While manufacturing PMI numbers signified growth in seven out of eight countries surveyed, all but two countries (Austria: 51.9; France: 50.2) saw PMIs slip from January’s numbers. The prints for Germany (50.5 vs. 50.2 expected) and France (50.2 vs. 50.3 expected) came in just above and below expectations respectively, but are hovering dangerously close to contractionary territory. Perhaps the most worrisome factor was the fact that purchase costs fell for the seventh straight month and posted their largest drop since July 2009. This data certainly adds to mounting deflationary fears following Monday's Eurozone inflation numbers, and all hopes will be pinned on ECB action next week. More positive news for the Euro Area was the unemployment rate for January dropping to 10.3% (vs. 10.4% expected) – the lowest level since August 2011.

The manufacturing PMI print out of the UK was a little alarming: the number clocked in at 50.8 (vs. 52.3 expected; 52.9 prior) and falling far more than expected to its lowest level since April 2013. Both input purchase costs and output charges saw further deflation off the back of lower commodity costs. While this certainly throws up some red flags, the reading for the larger services sector should be watched closely on Thursday before we get too concerned over a wider slowdown. European equity markets continued to shrug off soft/mixed regional economic data as the STOXX 600 (+1.44%) and the FTSE100 (+0.92%) posted gains for the fourth straight day.
As demand for safe haven assets fell, German government bond yields increased across all maturities with the 10yr yield increasing by +3.9bps (10Y: 0.146%). However, German yields continue to remain in negative territory up to the 8Y maturity. On the other hand, periphery yields dropped as Italian 10Y and Spanish 10Y yields were lower by -4.1bps and -4.2bps respectively. Credit markets benefited from the risk-on sentiment as iTraxx Senior and Sub spreads tightened by -4.9bps and -13.4bps respectively.

Finally before previewing the day ahead, DB's TheHouseView team published a special report yesterday titled “Searching for liquidity”, exploring the myth and reality about market trading liquidity. Their analysis shows that the overall level of liquidity does not appear low, with markets seeming to work reasonably well especially in periods of low stress. But they also find that seemingly ample liquidity has tended to evaporate during times of stress. The report includes a summary of liquidity conditions across markets as well as a look at the drivers behind the changes in liquidity conditions and at how markets are responding.

It’s a very quiet day ahead in Europe, with the only data of note being the Eurozone PPI number (expected: -2.9% YoY) for January and Spanish jobless claims (expected: 7.9k) for February. Data out of the US should spark more interest with ADP employment change data for February due (expected: 188k), which should be watched closely ahead of the employment report on Friday. The Fed is also releasing the Beige book today. Aside from economic data, the release of the remaining results from Super Tuesday in the US should take centre stage.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-02/furious-rally-fizzles-overnight-futures-follow-oil-lower
 

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Asian Metals Market Update
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
Gold will find sellers on rises as long as it does not break $1256. Silver needs to trade over $1466 to prevent another big sell off. Investors of gold and silver are now cautious. Physical buyers of gold and silver will delay their purchases. The next four days till Monday is very crucial for gold and silver. Either they break and trade over key resistances of $1272 and $1610 or else they will fall to $1110 and $1276.

Gold and Silver Market Morning: March-2-2016
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster
Dealers do not respond to physical buying as we explain below [ETFs], the Technical picture continues to describe a tightening of the trading range. We were premature in calling for a big price move either way coming, but the Technical picture continues to support our view that we are getting closer to that move.

Bail-In Regulation To Blame For “Bank Turmoil” In EU?
By: GoldCore
The Financial Times recently looked at how the new bail-in resolutions in the EU, U.S. and most of the western world and asked whether they may be leading to “bank turmoil” and increased concerns about banks and the banking sector in the EU. As is typically the case with coverage of the bail-in regime, the important article was little noticed.

Interest on Gold Is the New Tempest in a Teapot
By: Keith Weiner
Zero Hedge published an article on Canadian Bullion Services (CBS) last week. Other sites ran similar articles. The common thread through these articles, and in the user comments section, is that CBS is committing criminal fraud. Or, if not, then it’s a conspiracy by the Canadian government to confiscate gold. Terms like fractional reserve and re-hypothecation were dusted off for the occasion.
 

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