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Rafi Farber: Speculators Have Completely Fled Silver

Goldbrix

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Avalon

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I watched last night.. I'm giving up trying to predict anything at this point.
 

Goldbrix

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I watched last night.. I'm giving up trying to predict anything at this point.
I let folks like Rafi, Schiff, Zang, and others predict.
I just do my best to prepare, and keep others informed what may be happening.
As Rafi sez " Nobody has seen or lived through this type of market, even those who lived through WWII".
 

hoarder

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How have the fundamentals changed for the worse?
 

the_shootist

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Seriously, I don't give a rat's ass what they think. The only opinion that counts as far as I'm concerned, is my own and I know without a doubt that silver and gold is money and always will be, anything else used as currency is fleeting and temporary
 

Goldbrix

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How have the fundamentals changed for the worse?
The US economy has no room to grow. The Bidet Admin. has single handedly destroyed our energy market, Limiting leases, and restricting permits ( a two stage process for NO reason at all, but CONTROL). Very expensive fertilizer costs and planting expenses. Food storage mysteriously catches on fire. Baby formula is only at the borders for illegals in secured warehouses ONLY for the use of illegals. A simple clean up at a baby formula plant and review as been thrown in US Fed Court.....
Just off the top of my head.
There is much more.
Not to mention the 40 BILLION Dollars being sent to a war zone the WEST/ US will not win. Money created out of thin air by keystrokes on a computer.
"....In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy, ..."
. - Rudyard Kipling GODS OF THE COPYBOOK HEADINGS
( Written when Europe went thru this same shit in the early 1900s).

"YOU will OWN NOTHING and BE HAPPY". - KLAUS SCHWAB - Creator of the World Economic Forum
( Never had a real job or worked. Just talks other into his schemes). Oh, And goes to nude beaches wearing a Bridal Veil.
 
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Goldbrix

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I don’t see what that has to do with the fundamentals of silver.
There are no functioning fundamentals. It is all manipulation to false narratives. JPMorgan = US Treasury Proxy.
 

<SLV>

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Goldbrix

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Silver is an industrial metal. Gold is monetary reserves.
Silver was used as money long before it became industrial. At the worse I'd say silver is multi-functional, Money, Medical, Industrial.
 

Ebie

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Pessimism is good sometimes.
It may mean a bottom.
 

gnome

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How have the fundamentals changed for the worse?

Bit of an older article, but suggests demand for silver will continue to rise along with PV and electric vehicles.

I believe they significantly underestimate the exponential growth in adoption of EV's and PV. But if price spikes too high, industries will innovate.


https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/07...re-than-halved-by-2028-silver-institute-says/
Amount of silver needed in solar cells to be more than halved by 2028, Silver Institute says​

The US-based industry association finds the amount of silver loading may fall from 130 mg per cell in 2016 to approximately 65 mg by 2028. Alternative and cheaper raw materials, such as copper and aluminum, are not expected to replace silver in commercial cell production, at least in the next decade.
JULY 6, 2018 EMILIANO BELLINI

Silver_Bar_01-1200x788.jpg

Halving the amount of silver needed to make solar cells, combined with fewer, more efficient modules, will affect global demand for the commodity.
Image: Armin Kübelbeck/Wikimedia Commons

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The amount of silver needed to produce conductive silver paste for the front and back of most PV cells may be almost halved, from an average of 130 mg per cell in 2016 to approximately 65 mg by 2028, according to the Role of Silver in the Green Revolution report published by CRU Consulting – a division of CRU International Limited – on behalf of the Silver Institute.
The report's authors explain the amount of silver used in solar cell manufacturing has already decreased to a much larger extent, from 400 to 130 mg between 2007 and 2016. The authors also predict cell output will grow from 4.7 W now to 6 W by 2030, contributing to a 10.5 mg reduction in silver use per Watt, the report notes.
However CRU's analysts state silver's unmatched electroconductive qualities mean there is a “physical limit” on the possibility of further reducing silver loadings in cell production, as efficiency losses outweigh the benefits achieved from cheaper raw materials such as copper or aluminum.
CRU-Photo-768x504-600x394.png

During the next decade, non-silver based PV technologies are not expeccted to gain significant market share as they tend to have shorter lifespans and the global PV market, the report states, is moving toward more compact and efficient solar panels.
CRU predicts module efficiency may rise to around 25% by 2030, which would result in a 24% reduction in the number of panels needed to produce a given amount of electricity.

“These two factors – thrifting and efficiency increases – may decrease silver loadings enough that it would take a significant increase in solar capacity’s growth rate to keep silver demand from slipping – an increase that the industry as it currently stands will not be able to deliver in the long term,” the report states.
As a consequence, CRU experts forecast silver demand for the PV industry of around 70 to 80 million ounces per year until a decline to between 50 and 55 million ounces in the mid-2020s. Only by 2030 is demand expected to recover, to approximately 66 million ounces per year.
In a separate report published in May, the World Bank forecast a significant drop in the silver price, to $13.42/toz, by 2030. Up to 2021, however, the commodity price is not expected to change by a great margin, according to the analysts. Expected to close at $16.45/toz in 2021, the more significant decline in silver prices will come later, to a predicted $15.04/toz in 2025.
According to a report published by the Silver Institute in April, global industrial demand for silver grew around 4%, from 5,768 million ounces in 2016 to 5,990 million last year. This spurt was mainly due to the record growth of the PV industry, which pushed demand for silver as a component of silver pastes for solar cells, from 79.3 million ounces in 2016, to 94.1 million ounces in 2017 – year-on-year growth of around 19%.
 

gnome

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Silver is an industrial metal. Gold is monetary reserves.
And neither one is acting particularly effectively as an inflation hedge.
 

gnome

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https://resourceworld.com/how-much-silver-is-needed-for-the-solar-panel-industry/
In 2020, the world supply of silver was 976.2 million ounces and an estimated 1,056.3 million ounces in 2021, according to the Silver Institute. Global silver demand in 2020 was 896.1 million ounces with the 2021 estimate totalling 1,033.0 million ounces.

“We forecast a slow decline in silver demand from 2020 to 2023 as [photovoltaic, or PV] capacity added per year dips, while attempts at silver thrifting in PV panels continues at a diminished rate,” CRU Group analyst Alex Laugharne wrote in a June report.

In the early 2000s, silver demand from the solar sector barely registered, making up less than a percent of silver demand. In 2019, the photovoltaic sector accounted for 10% of total silver demand, comprising 98.7 million ounces within total demand of 991.8 million ounces, according to Metals Focus data.

According to the We Recycle Solar website, silver can use up to 6% of the total cost of building each unit of a solar panel and the average panel of approximately metres2 can use up to 20 grams of silver. As of 2018, the solar panel manufacturing industry used about 8% of the world’s annual physical silver supply.

London-based consultancy CRU explored the relationship between the demand for solar power and the market trend of silver. CRU’s study determined that as of 2018, the solar panel manufacturing industry used about 8% of the world’s annual physical silver supply

Florian Clement, group head of solar cell printing technology at Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, a major German research group, expects the industry to be able to halve its use of silver per cell over the coming decade. “A reduction down to 50 [milligrams] per cell is still expected to be possible within the next 10 years,” Clement said.
 

Cigarlover

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Up to 2021, however, the commodity price is not expected to change by a great margin, according to the analysts. Expected to close at $16.45/toz in 2021
hmm, I must have missed that drop last year.
The real demand for silver will be from EV's. They need almost 11 ounces each. If production really ramps up in EV's there is no way for current world production to keep up.
 

<SLV>

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Wonder why silver is in the Constitution then???
When was the last time the Constitution or Bill of Rights actually mattered?
 

gnome

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hmm, I must have missed that drop last year.
The real demand for silver will be from EV's. They need almost 11 ounces each. If production really ramps up in EV's there is no way for current world production to keep up.
PV is growing at about 25% CAGR.
EV's are grew at over 100% CAGR in 2021.

Higher prices will lead to substitution, for example as we've seen moving from cobalt chemistries to LFP - but these types of switches may take years to implement, even for Tesla, which is far more agile than any legacy automaker. Tesla has innovated hardware in machines within a single day and had cars with the new hardware rolling off the line within hours - that takes years for legacy auto. But anyway, a design switch is simple, a materials switch more complicated because the properties are all different.

I expect ramping of industrial silver demand from cleantech due to exponential growth in these industries.
What happens with supply? Will increased mining of copper for electrifying everything offset new demand for silver?
 

Buck

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But if price spikes too high, industries will innovate.
industries will innovate


that doesn't always work, it's a cute idea but oftentimes we're handed a 'change' that brings the quality of the overall product down

that's not innovation, that's being cheap to save some money...but surprisingly the item never really drops in price


it's a narrative handed out to the point, we believe it, but, generally, it's not true
 

gnome

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industries will innovate


that doesn't always work, it's a cute idea but oftentimes we're handed a 'change' that brings the quality of the overall product down

that's not innovation, that's being cheap to save some money...but surprisingly the item never really drops in price


it's a narrative handed out to the point, we believe it, but, generally, it's not true
Agree, but it's case by case. In the case of solar, they HAVE figured out how to use less silver and keep efficiency up. (Maybe there's a hidden cost?) With LFP batteries, the batteries themselves have improved and there are efficiency improvements in other parts of car (for example, Tesla's heat pumps) in some EV's that offset the heavier LFP batteries.

Anyway, solar industry is aiming for 50% reduction in silver per watt over a decade... while the industry is doubling volume about every 3 years. So less silver per panel, but WAY more panels. Exponential growth looks insignificant at first then it rockets. Of course, growth rate will level off at some point, but with energy costs up across the board, solar & electric vehicles will see continued demand.
 

Buck

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they HAVE figured out how to use less silver and keep efficiency up.
trust me, it's not you...

how old is solar? has there been anyone suing anyone because their panels haven't lasted 25 years yet?

we have zero way to know about anything long term

for instance:
that plastic coated drill you have from 10 years ago was designed to last, until you, the user broke it by abusing it, it was basically chemical resistant and was more than likely over-built to bring the customer the use from the tool they have come to expect from modern production, at that time

now, that plastic coated drill you have available today is made of a plastic where if you oil your tool, that plastic begins to deteriorate, of course, you won't know that for about 12 months, after you last oiled the moving parts and i find this to be very similar to that proposition they have us all believing: Corporations Will Fix It All

but when you think of the decrees these producers have received, over the years, from politicians...along with inflated money, etc

i don't have the faith in any of them, not like i used to

but, as if we haven't read these types of narratives before

Corporations Don't Fix Anything, they're 'for-profit' not 'for longevity' and lying serves them very well

2¢ rant over...
 

Goldbrix

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