There were rumors in mid January JPM was shorting the SP and long gold. That's when I figured this sad saga would start to unravel. Posted this somewhere here...
There were rumors in mid January JPM was shorting the SP and long gold. That's when I figured this sad saga would start to unravel. Posted this somewhere here...
I'm not expert at charts, but isn't this chart a little deceiving? It's using different proportions (I don't know how to explain this well) to chart.
If you look at the 1928-1929, it went from under 200 to about 375, almost a 100% gain. The current dow went from about 12,500 to 16,500. About a 33% gain.
So it seems they amplified the current Dow moves about 3X in order to match the 1928-1929 moves. Does this still make it relevant even though they did this?
thanks for the heads up, hadn't been paying attention to the cooked books,
January jobs report disappoints again
The U.S. economy created a disappointing 113,000 new jobs in January, the Labor Department reported Friday. Analysts expected nonfarm payrolls to increase by 185,000 jobs last month.
The unemployment rate fell again to 6.6 percent. the lowest level since October 2008 even as more Americans entered the labor force. Unemployment has fallen from a post-recession high of 10 percent, reached in October 2009. In December, it fell steeply to 6.7 percent from November's 7.2 percent.
January's disappointing results compounded a weak report in December when a much-lower-than-expected 74,000 jobs were created. It was revised upward by just 1,000 jobs Friday.
Agreed. The only thing bullish about a silver chart is a gold chart. LOL.
FWIW, I look for a good run in the broads from now until Aprilish. Hopefully PMS can run with it. After that I think the broads get killed, and I don't expect PMs to do well in that environment.
I think the graphs indicate it would be more like 12400, but like the 1929 crash the lack of confidence in markets / government is the larger issue. It would be hard to paint that as a necessary correction.
Of course in the craziness of today were the health care law that everyone screamed "was now the law of the land" only to be changed at will by order of BO, maybe anything goes.
that is why the correlation charts are cool, but not really representative,
as all the numbers and values have changed,
then the form fitting starts, shortened time frames, elongated time frames and so on to make it work,
whereas a more true version would be if it took a 47% haircut then,
a 47% haircut now would equate to dow 7997, and nowhere near the value as you stated
edit to add:
On October 29, William C. Durant joined with members of the Rockefeller family and other financial giants to buy large quantities of stocks in order to demonstrate to the public their confidence in the market, but their efforts failed to stop the large decline in prices. Due to the massive volume of stocks traded that day, the ticker did not stop running until about 7:45 p.m. that evening. The market had lost over $30 billion in the space of two days which included $14 billion on October 29 alone.[17]
Dow Jones Industrial Average on Black Monday and Black Tuesday[18]
Date Change % Change Close
October 28, 1929 −38.33 −12.82 260.64
October 29, 1929 −30.57 −11.73 230.07
After a one-day recovery on October 30, where the Dow regained an additional 28.40 points, or 12%, to close at 258.47, the market continued to fall, arriving at an interim bottom on November 13, 1929, with the Dow closing at 198.60. The market then recovered for several months, starting on November 14, with the Dow gaining 18.59 points to close at 217.28, and reaching a secondary closing peak (i.e., bear market rally) of 294.07 on April 17, 1930. After the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act was enacted in mid-June, the Dow dropped again, stabilizing above 200. The following year, the Dow embarked on another, much longer, steady slide from April 1931 to July 8, 1932 when it closed at 41.22—its lowest level of the 20th century, concluding an 89% loss rate for all of the market's stocks. For most of the 1930s, the Dow began slowly to regain the ground it lost during the 1929 crash and the three years following it, beginning on March 15, 1933, with the largest percentage increase of 15.34%, with the Dow Jones closing at 62.10, with a 8.26 point increase. The largest percentage increases of the Dow Jones occurred during the early and mid-1930s, but it would not return to the peak closing of September 3, 1929 until November 23, 1954
As usual you see what you want to see, and are misled by the chart. Which of course is the point, they want to fool the gullible.
The chart skews the data, the Cow hasn't had the run now that it had in 1929, they had to fool with the scaling to make it work. If the red line follows the blue line, it will end up in the 12-1400 area. The percentage is irrelevant, because the percentages are not equal on the chart.
As usual you see what you want to see, and are misled by the chart. Which of course is the point, they want to fool the gullible.
The chart skews the data, the Cow hasn't had the run now that it had in 1929, they had to fool with the scaling to make it work. If the red line follows the blue line, it will end up in the 12-1400 area. The percentage is irrelevant, because the percentages are not equal on the chart.
"One of the biggest objections I heard two months ago was that the chart is a shameless exercise in after-the-fact retrofitting of the recent data to some past price pattern. But that objection has lost much of its force. The chart was first publicized in late November of last year, and the correlation since then certainly appears to be just as close as it was before."
"Another objection I heard two months ago was that there are entirely different scales on the left and right axes of the chart. The scale on the right, corresponding to the Dow’s DJIA +1.22% movement in 1928 and 1929, extends from below 200 to more than 400—an increase of more than 100%. The left axis, in contrast, represents a percentage increase of less than 50%.
But there’s less to this objection than you might think. You can still have a high correlation coefficient between two data series even when their gyrations are of different magnitudes.
However, what is important, McClellan said, is that the time scales of the two data series need to be the same. And, he stresses, there has been no stretching of the time dimension to make them fit."
I can't speak for Tom DeMark but the analysis is a little more advanced and complicated than we are making it out to be. Also, DeMark isn't some schmuck who rambles and has no clue what he is doing.
So, 40% "hair cut" (decapitation) in a period of 5 weeks or so (at scale). This would be DOW 9600. Aren't there enough "circuit breakers" in the laws now to prevent that precipitous of a decline?
So, 40% "hair cut" (decapitation) in a period of 5 weeks or so (at scale). This would be DOW 9600. Aren't there enough "circuit breakers" in the laws now to prevent that precipitous of a decline?
Circuit breakers can actually exacerbate a sell-off.
If people and especially computer programs know that they will not be able to sell tomorrow, they will sell today. Once that cycle starts, it can be hard to stop.
But of course Fed Queen Janet will not hesitate to invoke her powers and step in and provide "liquidity" (free money to the banksters), if the Fed doesn't outright buy stocks or stock futures
And of course the PPT is still alive and well and standing by ready to "buy!buy!buy!"
But of course Fed Queen Janet will not hesitate to invoke her powers and step in and provide "liquidity" (free money to the banksters), if the Fed doesn't outright buy stocks or stock futures
Circuit breakers can actually exacerbate a sell-off.
If people and especially computer programs know that they will not be able to sell tomorrow, they will sell today. Once that cycle starts, it can be hard to stop.
But of course Fed Queen Janet will not hesitate to invoke her powers and step in and provide "liquidity" (free money to the banksters), if the Fed doesn't outright buy stocks or stock futures
And of course the PPT is still alive and well and standing by ready to "buy!buy!buy!"
Same old same old. But I thought we were on the mends. Market tanks, FED pumps, confidence erodes more and more. Oh well the real show isn't for a while anyways. Anybody buying stocks?
Same old same old. But I thought we were on the mends. Market tanks, FED pumps, confidence erodes more and more. Oh well the real show isn't for a while anyways. Anybody buying stocks?
Wait, aren't you the guy posting the chart that says the market is going to crash by April 1?
If I believed that chart 100%, I would definitely be buying stocks. Can't you see the runup coming immediately? You buy now, and use those proceeds to sell later. I can see the similarity, but I think we get more of a run lasting a longer time. It's hard for me to believe in a crash coming in February, but hey, maybe. After all, this chart guy is really smart and all that...:SLEEP:
Wait, aren't you the guy posting the chart that says the market is going to crash by April 1?
If I believed that chart 100%, I would definitely be buying stocks. Can't you see the runup coming immediately? You buy now, and use those proceeds to sell later. I can see the similarity, but I think we get more of a run lasting a longer time. It's hard for me to believe in a crash coming in February, but hey, maybe. After all, this chart guy is really smart and all that...:SLEEP: