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Scorpio

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Oil up and Gold up

This hasn't been happening in awhile,

while dollar and bonds are flat for right now,
 

Ahillock

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Re: Relative oddity this am

Only thing that won't be odd is that gold will go back into the $1240-1250 range.
 

southfork

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Re: Relative oddity this am

again today,

oil up and metals up,

we had stated long ago, that when the time comes, the big boys would be on the right side of the trade,

now we hear tales of JP being long both metals, and big long

back in the day, at that time, they were short, really really short

so we shall see

Getting the feeling the bottoms in. Will have to peruse the lcs inventory today.
 

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Re: Relative oddity this am

There were rumors in mid January JPM was shorting the SP and long gold. That's when I figured this sad saga would start to unravel. Posted this somewhere here...

20140113_1928.jpg


Freaky chart.
 

phideaux

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Re: Relative oddity this am

again today,

oil up and metals up,

Stocks up, too.

Dollar index getting whacked today. All is as it should be. :biggrin:

intraday.gif
 

RichG

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Re: Relative oddity this am

Bump for the graphs.... :smokin:
 

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Re: Relative oddity this am

There were rumors in mid January JPM was shorting the SP and long gold. That's when I figured this sad saga would start to unravel. Posted this somewhere here...

20140113_1928.jpg


Freaky chart.

I'm not expert at charts, but isn't this chart a little deceiving? It's using different proportions (I don't know how to explain this well) to chart.

If you look at the 1928-1929, it went from under 200 to about 375, almost a 100% gain. The current dow went from about 12,500 to 16,500. About a 33% gain.

So it seems they amplified the current Dow moves about 3X in order to match the 1928-1929 moves. Does this still make it relevant even though they did this?
 

Tinbox

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Re: Relative oddity this am

Anyone know when the current DJIA on that graph was last updated?

16,266.74, look at the top right hand corner of the chart.

(edit, unless you were referring to the date it was updated in which case I don't know)
 
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EO 11110

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Re: Relative oddity this am

no worries scorp, things are back to normal now

horrendous jobs report = stock market up big :thumbs_up:
 

Eat Beef

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Re: Relative oddity this am

Agreed. The only thing bullish about a silver chart is a gold chart. LOL.


FWIW, I look for a good run in the broads from now until Aprilish. Hopefully PMS can run with it. After that I think the broads get killed, and I don't expect PMs to do well in that environment.
 

phideaux

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Re: Relative oddity this am

The "oddity" I'm seeing is that crude is running up but retail gas is sinking. I paid $2.94 yesterday, the lowest in my area for at least 2 years.
 

Eat Beef

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I could see that pattern coming to pass, but make no mistake, it only puts us back to 13200 DOW, hardly a disaster.:boring:
 

itsamess

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I could see that pattern coming to pass, but make no mistake, it only puts us back to 13200 DOW, hardly a disaster.:boring:


I think the graphs indicate it would be more like 12400, but like the 1929 crash the lack of confidence in markets / government is the larger issue. It would be hard to paint that as a necessary correction.

Of course in the craziness of today were the health care law that everyone screamed "was now the law of the land" only to be changed at will by order of BO, maybe anything goes.
 

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I could see that pattern coming to pass, but make no mistake, it only puts us back to 13200 DOW, hardly a disaster.:boring:

It would actually correspond to ~8800 and not 13200.


375 to 200 vs 16400 to 8800. (~47% drop)
 

Eat Beef

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It would actually correspond to ~8800 and not 13200.


375 to 200 vs 16400 to 8800. (~47% drop)


As usual you see what you want to see, and are misled by the chart. Which of course is the point, they want to fool the gullible.

The chart skews the data, the Cow hasn't had the run now that it had in 1929, they had to fool with the scaling to make it work. If the red line follows the blue line, it will end up in the 12-1400 area. The percentage is irrelevant, because the percentages are not equal on the chart.
 

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Gentlemen, Allow me to cut to the chase as that be my style. Someone IS gunna eat a chit sandwich. ;)
 

Ahillock

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As usual you see what you want to see, and are misled by the chart. Which of course is the point, they want to fool the gullible.

The chart skews the data, the Cow hasn't had the run now that it had in 1929, they had to fool with the scaling to make it work. If the red line follows the blue line, it will end up in the 12-1400 area. The percentage is irrelevant, because the percentages are not equal on the chart.


"One of the biggest objections I heard two months ago was that the chart is a shameless exercise in after-the-fact retrofitting of the recent data to some past price pattern. But that objection has lost much of its force. The chart was first publicized in late November of last year, and the correlation since then certainly appears to be just as close as it was before."

"Another objection I heard two months ago was that there are entirely different scales on the left and right axes of the chart. The scale on the right, corresponding to the Dow’s DJIA +1.22% movement in 1928 and 1929, extends from below 200 to more than 400—an increase of more than 100%. The left axis, in contrast, represents a percentage increase of less than 50%.

But there’s less to this objection than you might think. You can still have a high correlation coefficient between two data series even when their gyrations are of different magnitudes.

However, what is important, McClellan said, is that the time scales of the two data series need to be the same. And, he stresses, there has been no stretching of the time dimension to make them fit."
 

Ahillock

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which gets right back to what Eat is talking about,

it is hardly a calamity as it was in 28-29, more like a nuisance to go back to 13200

to be a equivalent problem, then it does have to go back to 8000 as stated, using a percentage comparison

otherwise, it is nothing other than a inconvenience for the paper pushers,

I can't speak for Tom DeMark but the analysis is a little more advanced and complicated than we are making it out to be. Also, DeMark isn't some schmuck who rambles and has no clue what he is doing.



Time will make all things evident.
 
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<SLV>

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So, 40% "hair cut" (decapitation) in a period of 5 weeks or so (at scale). This would be DOW 9600. Aren't there enough "circuit breakers" in the laws now to prevent that precipitous of a decline?
 

phideaux

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So, 40% "hair cut" (decapitation) in a period of 5 weeks or so (at scale). This would be DOW 9600. Aren't there enough "circuit breakers" in the laws now to prevent that precipitous of a decline?


Circuit breakers can actually exacerbate a sell-off.

If people and especially computer programs know that they will not be able to sell tomorrow, they will sell today. Once that cycle starts, it can be hard to stop.

But of course Fed Queen Janet will not hesitate to invoke her powers and step in and provide "liquidity" (free money to the banksters), if the Fed doesn't outright buy stocks or stock futures

And of course the PPT is still alive and well and standing by ready to "buy! buy! buy!"
 

itsamess

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Circuit breakers can actually exacerbate a sell-off.

If people and especially computer programs know that they will not be able to sell tomorrow, they will sell today. Once that cycle starts, it can be hard to stop.

But of course Fed Queen Janet will not hesitate to invoke her powers and step in and provide "liquidity" (free money to the banksters), if the Fed doesn't outright buy stocks or stock futures

And of course the PPT is still alive and well and standing by ready to "buy! buy! buy!"

Same old same old. But I thought we were on the mends. Market tanks, FED pumps, confidence erodes more and more. Oh well the real show isn't for a while anyways. Anybody buying stocks?
 

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Same old same old. But I thought we were on the mends. Market tanks, FED pumps, confidence erodes more and more. Oh well the real show isn't for a while anyways. Anybody buying stocks?

Wait, aren't you the guy posting the chart that says the market is going to crash by April 1?

If I believed that chart 100%, I would definitely be buying stocks. Can't you see the runup coming immediately? You buy now, and use those proceeds to sell later. I can see the similarity, but I think we get more of a run lasting a longer time. It's hard for me to believe in a crash coming in February, but hey, maybe. After all, this chart guy is really smart and all that...:SLEEP:
 

itsamess

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Wait, aren't you the guy posting the chart that says the market is going to crash by April 1?

If I believed that chart 100%, I would definitely be buying stocks. Can't you see the runup coming immediately? You buy now, and use those proceeds to sell later. I can see the similarity, but I think we get more of a run lasting a longer time. It's hard for me to believe in a crash coming in February, but hey, maybe. After all, this chart guy is really smart and all that...:SLEEP:

I posted a link to a comparison to the 29 market. Please be precise. There is no exact match, but lets see what happens by April 15. Nuff said.
 

Eat Beef

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Why is it that people who can't express themselves must say "nuff said". If enough were said, why say it?
 

itsamess

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Why is it that people who can't express themselves must say "nuff said". If enough were said, why say it?

Some folks always have to have the last word. Well Beefie
April 15
 

Eat Beef

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Read your own chart, the bottom is before April 2! :banghead:
 

itsamess

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Read your own chart, the bottom is before April 2! :banghead:

Wasn't referring to the chart (again not my chart - please try to be accurate). Sad when folks can't be civilized, oh well have at it.
April 15, bring up the thread then we shall see.
 

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I found this at jsmineset. One of his followers sent it and JS found it worthy of posting.


Dear CIGAS,

...While at the Jim Sinclair conference I heard Jim say something that is so obvious, so common sense and so connected, and I have even written about it but stupid me didn’t break it down to reality. He answered a question and said "we do have bread lines, you just don’t see them… where do you think the 50 million Americans would be without food stamps?" I have written several times on this topic (and try to break things down to a common denominator) yet never got there on this one. Subliminally? Yes of course and I’m sure it is the same for you, but where would these people be? They would be standing in lines all over the country waiting for soup, bread, cheese or whatever and ON THE NEWS! Can you imagine the confidence this would instill? Might this spill over elsewhere?

Elsewhere like into the banking system? Might seeing bread lines cause some depositors to run to their bank and take out at least some balances? Well yes of course it would but technology plays a bigger role. A bigger role just as food stamps do in hiding hunger. Any run that occurs you and I will not see until after the fact. After the fact as in after the bank is closed or "bailed in" with part of your balances saving the bank. You see, any run will be electronic and unless you actually work close enough to the actual transfers (the run), you will never see it. There will be no lines cluing you that you need to be in it. Any bank run of an individual bank or of the system itself will happen obscured by technology’s veil, you will only see the truth after the fact.

In the 1930′s there was no way to hide what was happening. Banks were closing, people were out of work and standing in lines. Even though they didn’t have iPhones at the time, photos and film clips did exist. In today’s modern world where you can’t do anything that’s not filmed the truth is obscured everywhere that you look for it. The truth of our economic and financial numbers are made up. We could have a bank run today that takes all deposits from a bank yet the Fed could loan them everything that was lost and the bank will open Monday morning as if nothing happened!

My point is this: YOU need to dig for the truth for YOURSELF. There is information out there for you to do this. This process is made difficult because you have to sift through all sorts of disinformation from many sources that should (were at one time) be real and reliable. In a world where nothing is as it is portrayed, the obstacles to finding the truth are large and on a systemic scale. Gold is portrayed as bad or weak when in fact it is solid and will again be the foundation of finance and your financial survival. Gold is to the dollar like sunlight is to a vampire. There are many and various reasons that the Fed and other central banks want you to believe that gold is bad or weak or not even money at all. There are many and various reasons that they don’t even want gold at the edges of the radar. They have every reason to have done everything in their powers to turn you away from gold as money. You have only one job, dig for the truth and figure it out for yourself even as you are constantly being misdirected away from it..don’t be fooled and know this truth!

Regards,
CIGA Bill Holter
 

phideaux

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USD getting whacked today, down .40, a half percent. that's a big move in the FX world.

intraday.gif
 

phideaux

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PM should be rocketing higher today with the USD down.

Silver barely budging.

Yeah, I think gold breaking $1300 will get the talking heads talking about gold again. I can see Maria Buttaroma now: "Is the gold bear market over? Let's ask Dennis Gartman." :haha:
 

REO 54

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I find interesting that the moment gold is trying to go up while the other metals are going down. Don't know if that means anything at all, but this the "Ramblings" thread so........
 

JayDubya

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I find interesting that the moment gold is trying to go up while the other metals are going down. Don't know if that means anything at all, but this the "Ramblings" thread so........

It's funny you would mention it. I had a conversation this AM with someone and that's exactly what we were discussing. Gold is moving up but little sister (silver) is not tagging along this time. Gold is moving up but there's no plurality. So what does that say about this move in gold? Does it have to say anything?
 

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Finally went over $1300 today, even if brief. Gold is pressing the 200DMA for the first time in over a year.

20140213_gold2.png
 

Eat Beef

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Some folks always have to have the last word. Well Beefie
April 15

Hey, what's your prediction? I haven't seen anything but a chart and a statement that doesn't correlate with the chart.

My prediction is that we don't get a 47% haircut in the down by April 1, 2 or 15. I'll go further and say no Dow under, say 11k by then.

What's your concrete prediction?
 

Eat Beef

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Finally went over $1300 today, even if brief. Gold is pressing the 200DMA for the first time in over a year.

20140213_gold2.png



I thought your stance was that it was impossible to chart a manipulated market?
 

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What I think is that the Emperor has been shown to have no clothes.

As gold started up this time, I watched Blythe Masters whack it down several times...and it kept popping up, Whack-A-Mole style.

This budget deal the clowns in Washingtoon did, is undeniable proof: We're a nation led by a re-tard, with timid, spineless wannabees in the alleged opposition. They're watching with great interest, to see if he can pull it off - that they'll have some of that power, too, in turn!

And the Chinese, not infected by the lead in the Washingtoon water supply, are just nodding sage-like...Americans have gone Idiocracy. Time to move.

The dollar, in this environment, has NO future.

Gold is the fallback.
 

Unca Walt

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Hey, what's your prediction? I haven't seen anything but a chart and a statement that doesn't correlate with the chart.

My prediction is that we don't get a 47% haircut in the down by April 1, 2 or 15. I'll go further and say no Dow under, say 11k by then.

What's your concrete prediction?

Tip 'o the hat for a ballsy prediction. :s13: