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Silver Art

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No one should ever place wagers on my hunches but I predict a beat down Wednesday.
There was a brief beatdown of silver today around 7PM - 7:10 PM. It went from $16 (today's 5PM kitco close) to a low of $14.27 before bouncing back. It happened between 7pm - 7:10 PM EST, If you blinked, then you missed it. I thought my Kcast was not working right when I saw $14.82 spot but I checked the kitco site, I saw an intra-day low of $14.27 which I must have occurred after 7PM.
 
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Scorpio

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Fake Oil News? The Energy Report 07/06/17
Thursday, July 06, 2017

by Phil Flynn of The PRICE Futures Group



Oil prices sold off almost 5% on what many people attributed to a story that some unnamed Russian oil company source said that Russia was against a production cut. Today those sources are still unknown, but really the sell-off in oil probably had more to do with the fact that Saudi Arabia cut prices to Asia as the kingdom was losing market share to Iraq and Iran that has been raising output and taking away business from the Saudis. Reuters News reported that OPEC exports increased last month. OPEC exported 25.92 million barrels per day in June, up 450,000 bpd from May and 1.9 million bpd more than a year earlier and reports of rising production from Nigeria and Libya is giving the perception that the OPEC/non-OPEC accord is becoming strained and that might cause the whole production cut deal to fall apart.

Yet while the market speculates on reports from unnamed Russian sources and conflicting data on OPEC exports, an earlier report showed that OPEC exports fell and it seems that many are looking at data with bearish blinders on. The reality is that we are seeing US oil supply still decline at record pace. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil supply plunged by 5.8 million barrels last week. That drop comes as the rise in US rig counts paused and we saw a drop in US oil production. Where the trend of falling US oil supply is most evident is in the NYMEX delivery point of Cushing, Oklahoma where supplies fell again by a hefty 1.4 million barrels.

The API also reported a large 5.7 million barrel drop in gasoline supply as gas went up on the rack ahead of what may have been a record breaking demand weekend for gasoline as prices hung around a 12 year low for the holiday. While the market did see a 400,000 barrel build in distillates, the overall bullish nature of the data does not fit the bearish oil narrative. That makes today’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) report very big to see if oil can regain the nearly 5% loss it suffered yesterday.

Not only do we have to watch the total inventories but also the US oil production number. We saw a fall last week and many traders want to know if that was a fluke or is it a sign that US oil output has hit a short term peak. We know we are seeing an uptick in uncompleted wells and the wells that are being completed are seeing less production per well. Those are warning signs that the shale producers are struggling to deal with the ramifications of the recent oil price crash.

The oil market also took note of Volvo’s announcement that they are planning to phase out gas only car production by 2019, and only produce electric or electric hybrid cars. The company also said that it would launch three new fully electric Volvo’s between 2019 and 2021. They also plan to make two high performance electrics under the Polestar brand that is expected to challenge Tesla. Yet the move by Volvo may not be as devastating to future gasoline demand as many think as we will see the internal combustion engine satisfy most of the growth for new vehicles in the developing world but is still a glimpse into a future where we will need less gasoline per car but we will still see a lot more cars being built.

Lower temperature forecast and rising production forecasts sunk that natural gas. Fears of a storage squeeze has been cooled as the temperatures are not supposed to be as hot and dry in the US. Gas production is ahead of expectations.

Thanks,
Phil Flynn
Questions? Ask Phil Flynn today at 312-264-4364

http://insidefutures.com/article/1993905/Fake Oil News? The Energy Report 07/06/17.html
 

Scorpio

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Oil Plunge Run. The Energy Report 07/07/17
Friday, July 07, 2017

by Phil Flynn of The PRICE Futures Group



Rising yields and rising oil production is causing oil to plunge even as US oil stock piles drawdown at a record rate. The rebound in US oil production of 88,000 barrels a day according to the weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) and was the key data factor that is causing the selloff. The market believes that the 100,000 barrel drop in US oil production was just a storm related fluke and that US oil production will continue to rise even as many producers at this price level will struggle financially.

Forget about the 6.299 million barrels drop in crude supply and forget about the surge in gasoline demand because obviously the market is. Even another 1.33 million barrels drop in Cushing, Oklahoma supply is being ignored as bearish forces continue to control the market mindset. Perhaps concerns about the economy are also sinking in as rising bond yields seems to suggest that the easy money in the global market place may be drying up that may put a dent in oil demand going forward. That means that we must get ready for another round of shale bankruptcies as many producer hedges have already expired. While it is great for some to see lower prices, the shale oil producer may be a victim of their own success. While there is a lot of talk about how cheaply some producers can produce, the reality is that with the debt levels of many players and the falling yields per well and decline rate that may be put to the test.

Today’s US monthly jobs report looms large. As the European Central Bank is seen as being more hawkish, the jump in global yields is becoming a problem not only for the oil price but also for the cash strapped US shale producer that will be depending on borrowed money. If you must borrow more money at higher rates for a product whose demand may slow due to higher rates, this will be a significant challenge. At some point, something has got to give.

Yet there were some things in the EIA report that were supportive other than the headline numbers. US fuel demand surged by 3.62% in the last 4 weeks. Refinery runs were up 1.1 percent and crude imports use by 251,000 barrels per day. Yet the belief that no matter OPEC does, or even how prices fall apart on the shale producers, somehow it will not matter.

Yet perhaps what was more important than the day to day fluctuations in the oil market was the speech that President Donald Trump made in Warsaw Poland as he promised that the US would be a reliable supplier of energy in the world. Mr. Trump said to an enthusiastic polish crowd that, “America is eager to expand our partnership with you. We welcome stronger ties of trade and commerce as you grow your economies. And we are committed to securing your access to alternate sources of energy, so Poland and its neighbors are never again held hostage to a single supplier of energy.” This was an obvious reference to Russia that has used its former monopoly on natural gas to threaten and browbeat its neighbors. The President said, “Let me be clear about one crucial point. The United States will never use energy to coerce your nations, and we cannot allow others to do so,” Trump said at a press conference flanked by European leaders. “You don’t want to have a monopoly or a monopolistic situation.” Finally a President that gets it on energy.
Thanks,
Phil Flynn
Questions? Ask Phil Flynn today at 312-264-4364

http://insidefutures.com/article/1994453/Oil Plunge Run. The Energy Report 07/07/17.html
 

the_shootist

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Major investors can't make money unless the market goes down. They sell high then drive the market down, buy low and wait until the next sell high opportunity. All this manipulation is courtesy of your deep state banker friends
 

BarnacleBob

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Major investors can't make money unless the market goes down. They sell high then drive the market down, buy low and wait until the next sell high opportunity. All this manipulation is courtesy of your deep state banker friends
I would guestimate that $ denominated profit taking MAY explain the current $ weakness. $ outflows are back on the hunt for yield prolly in EM's before the Fed raises again and/or diminishes the liquidity thats being pumped into the system. Note the term "diminish", does not mean terminate.... Its the smart move, no conspiracy nonsense, just capital doing what capital does.
 

BarnacleBob

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Scorpio

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Hey BB,

How you and I were speaking to the usage of slave labor in NK, or the potential for it,

It is already happening. Saw a article headline this weekend that spoke to how the chins are running massive amounts of product out of NK, destined for chinland and points unknown.
 

savvydon

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Aug. U.S. non-farm payrolls up 156,000, which is a miss to the downside. Gold rallies and hits new 11-month high.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/01/nonfarm-payrolls-august-2017.html

Gold up to $1327
...And right back down again.

Not sure of the mechanism, but I'm guessing it goes something like Economy weaker, so fed won't raise rates, so dollar won't crump yet and the flood won't start soon, so there will be no short term metal moonshot. Therefore we consolidate for now.
 

BackwardsEngineeer

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Ok anybody have any thoughts on what the heck is going on with palladium? Day after day it slowly increases and starting to bite at platinums heals..... what am I missing here, someone knows something...
 

madhu

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Ok anybody have any thoughts on what the heck is going on with palladium? Day after day it slowly increases and starting to bite at platinums heals..... what am I missing here, someone knows something...
It might be doing the Rhodium trick. Wish I bought some when it dropped to 150
 

BarnacleBob

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@ Scorp.... reportedly there are 10k boomers retiring daily in the U.S..... Which essentially means they will be accessing, using & circulating their savings, retirement & pension funds.... IOW financial & monetary substitututes that have been "hoarded" are now entering the economy..... This could possibly explain current market conditions???
 

Uglytruth

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Insurance Co's keep money in market but will need to pull it out to pay claims....... tells me there is no reason for current market levels.
 

BarnacleBob

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TAEZZAR

LADY JUSTICE ISNT BLIND, SHES JUST AFRAID TO WATCH
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I clicked on the upper left corner "About the Fed" & got this:

FED.JPG


THEN I recalled having this:

FED RES NOT FEDERAL.JPG


All brought to you by the BANKSTERS (rothschilds, j p morgan, chase, etc) legitimizing their 104 year old LIE !!!
 

the_shootist

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Goldhedge

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madhu

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When the new guy gets in there, I wonder if he'll expose the fraud...
Yes the fraud was tolerated as long as it was profitable and the payout was less than the gain from gaming the farm. What is the use of brick and mortar retail when you have Amazon deliver to your door step.
I guess Carl is correct, no need for the federal reserve when you have cryptocurrency?
 

Scorpio

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dollar gets hammered today,
now threatening breaking 93 to the down after failing again at 94

broke 50 day, broke support, and closed weak

there is why oil and metals were up today

still metals haven't done much except flop around

2.png
 

solarion

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My issue as well Scorp.

The dollar index has been cratering all year...I believe it was comfortably over 100 in January, yet despite this, metals have only enjoyed a very slight upward bias vs the US dollar and silver has even spent a good portion of the year under water...even as the dollar continuously fell vs other fiat. The whole thing would seem horribly contrived even in the absence of a crypto market that just keeps surging forward.
 

Scorpio

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as Solarion and I were just discussing, decent move down in the dollar, under 93 to 92.70 and what do the metals do?

Nothing except down

Talk about past performance is not indicative of future results.............

Crude gets the picture, up big 2 consecutive days, heading for 60 per now
 

BarnacleBob

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TAEZZAR

LADY JUSTICE ISNT BLIND, SHES JUST AFRAID TO WATCH
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From BB's link:
According to Digiconomist’s Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index, as of Monday November 20th, 2017 Bitcoin’s current estimated annual electricity consumption stands at 29.05TWh

What a waste of time & energy, this guy sure has little to do.
How much electricity did he consume, researching, compiling & writing up this so very important statistic?
I truly wonder how anyone can come up with such an outlandish claim.
 

solarion

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What a waste of electricity.
Seems a small price to pay to illustrate the corruption encompassed within the fiat currency scam. That a single bitcoin now buys more than 500 ounces of silver is amazing, at least to me.
 

madhu

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