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BarnacleBob

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1 Bitcoin equals
9,260.00 US Dollar
 

BarnacleBob

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TAEZZAR

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BarnacleBob

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Simon Black at Sovereign Man says:

More than 20% of the companies which comprise the Russell 2000 index, and nearly 10% of companies in the S&P 500 index, burn through so much cash that they have to borrow money just to pay interest on their debts.

But under the new rules of capitalism, these losses don’t matter because there are countless investors, funds, and bankers delighted to have the opportunity to put more capital into the business.

Names named are Tesla, WeWork, Uber, Netflix, Dropbox, and Snapchat.

http://www.woodpilereport.com/index.htm
 

Scorpio

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More than 20% of the companies which comprise the Russell 2000 index, and nearly 10% of companies in the S&P 500 index, burn through so much cash that they have to borrow money just to pay interest on their debts.
Outstanding way to look at it,

Make magic great again,

You give us your fiat, and we make it disappear
 

Scorpio

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Oil holds its gains for now at 71.45 futures near term,

dollar flat to down slightly,

Gold and silver holding positive this am, but not getting much mileage out of the news from the ME.

10 yr T moved back under 3% yesterday, a number many have been watching closely

Lastly, article stated the chins can grow their own soybeans to replace imports from the US. The farmers there are hesitant to switch from corn to beans because of price. .Gov on high is supposedly looking at raising prices to encourage the switch. Yet, the farmers say the infrastructure doesn't exist for it. For corn production, everything is in place, whereas beans have been so cheap from the US, that the storage and processing facilities have never been put in place to encourage bean production.
 

Scorpio

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doesn't speak to the fact that if production is moved to beans, they are going to be short corn, and out in the markets looking for replacements. They do have a billion chins running around needing tacos and tortillas.............ooops, wrong country. Regardless, they still need their corn as it is so versatile, with eating only being one of the uses.
 

ErrosionOfAccord

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Investors who are bullish on gold have several options to potentially profit from that thesis. They can buy the physical metal or futures contracts, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that owns it or that owns mining stocks, or shares of the mining companies themselves. However, before an investor buys gold stocks, they need to know that some of these options don't always follow the price of gold. That has certainly been the case for producer Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY), whose stock has declined about 8% since the company's formation 15 years ago, during which time the price of gold has risen nearly 370% due in large part because the company piled on a mountain of debt to acquire more mineral reserves over the years.
While Yamana has destroyed shareholder value over its history, the company appears to be about to turn the corner. It has a new low-cost mine coming on line later this year that should significantly increase cash flow. That catalyst could transform this former money pit into a real gold mine for investors. Here's what you need to know about where the company's been, and where it's going.

View photos
A closeup of a thumb and forefinger holding a gold nugget over a rocky surface.
Image source: Getty Images.
What does Yamana Gold do?
Yamana Gold produces, you guessed it, gold. The company managed to dig out 823,264 ounces of the precious metal last year (along with an additional 273,063 ounces from its stake in Brio Gold and the Gualcamayo, which the company is in the process of selling). While that's a significant number, it wasn't enough to get it into the list of the world's top 10 miners, and it was well below leading gold producer Barrick Gold and its 5.32 million ounces.
Yamana also produces silver and copper, digging out 5 million ounces and 127.3 million pounds, respectively, in 2017. It's far from the leader in either category, however, and those metals don't supply more revenue to Yamana than gold, which is how it makes most of its money. In 2017, the company sold $1.8 billion in metals, with 79% of that total from gold sales, 16% from copper, and 5% from silver.
Operating mines
Yamana produces from several mines in the Americas, including in Canada, Brazil, Chile, and Argentina:
Mine Location Amount of Metal Mined (2017) AISC of Mine (2017) Chapada Brazil 119,852 ounces gold; 127.3 million pounds copper $385 per ounce El Penon Chile 160,509 ounces gold; 4.28 million ounces silver $928 per ounce of gold; $12.77 per ounce of silver Canadian Malartic Canada 316,731 ounces gold $742 per ounce Jacobina Brazil 135,806 ounces gold $867 per ounce Minera Florida Chile 90,366 ounces gold; 469,674 ounces silver $1,090 per ounce Cerro Moro Argentina None in 2017 N/A
Data source: Yamana Gold. AISC = all-in sustaining cost.
As you can see, the biggest contributor is the Canadian Malartic mine, which the company owns as part of a 50/50 joint venture (JV) with Agnico Eagle Mines. The open-pit mine is one of the largest in Canada and boasts a low all-in sustaining cost (AISC) that was below the companywide average of $820 an ounce in 2017.
Another notable mine in Yamana's portfolio is El Penon, because it supplies the bulk of the company's silver output. Chapada is also notable, because it is the lowest-cost mine in the company's portfolio and contributes all the company's copper production.
As mentioned earlier, Yamana received some production from assets it plans to sell. One of those is the Gualcamayo open-pit mine in Argentina, which produced 154,052 ounces of gold in 2017 at an elevated AISC of $990 an ounce. While the company is pursuing alternatives to maximize the value of this high-cost mine, the current plan is to sell it. The company also held a 53% stake in Brio Gold, which owned several mines in Brazil, entitling Yamana to 119,011 ounces of gold in 2017. Yamana created Brio and completed an initial public offering (IPO) of the company in 2016 before agreeing to sell the rest of the shares it owned to Leagold Mining Corporation in 2018.

Helping replace some of the output from those departing assets will be the Cerro Moro gold-silver mine in Argentina. Yamana started construction on this mine in 2015 and is expected to finish it in 2018. The company estimates that the mine will produce 85,000 ounces of gold and 3.75 million ounces of silver in 2018 at low costs of $650 and $9.15 an ounce, respectively. In the coming years, the company sees output ramping up to 130,000 ounces of gold and 7 million ounces of silver.
History and acquisitions
Former banker Peter Marrone founded Yamana Gold in 2003. While its headquarters were (and still are) in Canada, the company initially operated gold and copper mines in Brazil that it acquired in a reverse takeover of a struggling company called Yamana Resources in that country.
Marrone laid out his strategic vision for Yamana in 2005, aiming to increase production up to 750,000 ounces of gold by 2008. That goal led the company to acquire RNC Gold for 49 million Canadian dollars (US$39 million at today's exchange rate) toward the end of that year, adding mines in Nicaragua and Honduras as well as an advanced development property and other exploration targets in Central America. That deal bolstered the company's output to 400,000 ounces in 2006 and put it on pace for 650,000 ounces by 2008. The company followed that deal a few months later by paying CA$574 million in stock to buy Desert Sun Mining. That deal added a mine in Brazil near another of Yamana's locations as well as one under development. It also increased the company's output to 450,000 ounces in 2006 and put it on pace for 800,000 by 2008.
A few months later, the company acquired Viceroy Exploration to solidify its position as a leading intermediate gold producer. The draw was Viceroy's advanced-stage Gualcamayo gold project, which, along with Yamana's other development-stage projects at the time, would help hoist production to 1 million ounces by 2008, well past its initial strategic vision.
In 2007, the company made two more deals, combining with Northern Orion Resources and then Meridian Gold. The company paid CA$3.5 billion for Meridian, which would make it a 1.5 million-ounce producer by 2009.
Yamana finally made an acquisition in its home country of Canada in 2014, when it teamed up with Agnico Eagle to buy Osisko Mining for CA$3.9 billion. The companies formed a joint acquisition entity, with each owning 50%, to gain control of its Canadian Malartic mine.
Debt
Yamana Gold's steady stream of acquisitions grew the size of the company over the years. However, these deals haven't created any value for investors. In fact, Yamana's share price is currently below where it was in 2003. One factor is that the company took on a significant amount of debt in recent years to acquire the stake in Canadian Malartic as well as to build Cerro Moro. That debt started weighing on the stock as the price of gold came off its peak.

Gold Price in US Dollars Chart

Gold Price in U.S. Dollars data by YCharts.
The company has since started chipping away at this debt by selling more shares and parting with non-core assets like Brio Gold and the exploration properties it acquired along with the Canadian Malartic mine, which it sold to its partner, Agnico Eagle. These moves have given the company the liquidity it needs to finish building Cerro Moro, which is a key driver of its future growth.
Current business focus
Like many of its larger gold-producing peers, Yamana Gold has shifted its focus away from trying to build a gold mining empire and instead aims to grow shareholder value by increasing cash flow. Cerro Moro is a crucial step in that direction given the low-cost silver and gold it will provide the company. That mine will help expand the company's gold output at a 5.6% compound annual rate through 2020, pushing it up to 970,000 ounces. Silver production, meanwhile, should grow at an even faster 37% yearly pace, hitting 12.9 million ounces in 2020. This low-cost output will deliver a "step change in cash flow" in the second half of 2018, according to the company's projections. In Yamana's view, it will generate an amount of free cash flow through 2019 that is "disproportionate to market capitalization" (which was $2.8 billion in early 2018).

View photos
Gold nuggets on top of U.S. hundred-dollar bills.
Image source: Getty Images.
Is Yamana Gold stock a buy?
Yamana Gold is about to hit a turning point. The once financially strapped gold producer should transform into a free-cash-flow machine over the next three years if the price of gold cooperates. The company believes it could produce more than $500 million in free cash flow through the end of 2019. For a company with a market cap of less than $3 billion, that's a significant windfall.
It's upside that the company believes isn't reflected in its stock price since Yamana sells for around five times expected 2018 cash flow per share. For comparison's sake, most peers trade for about eight times, while the highest one fetches approximately 14 times anticipated 2018 cash flow per share. These numbers suggest that Yamana Gold is significantly undervalued compared to those rivals. That cheap price tag, when combined with its growth potential, gives investors plenty of reasons to love what they see ahead. While Yamana's stock likely doesn't have millionaire-maker potential, it seems to have significant upside in the near term as long as the price of gold cooperates, making it a compelling gold stock to consider buying on that turnaround potential alone.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-know-yamana-gold-stock-131500017.html
 

Scorpio

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Good Morning Traders,


As of this writing 4 AM EST, heres what we see:


US Dollar: Jun. USD is Up at 92.600.


Energies: Jun '18 Crude is Up at 71.03.


Financials: The June 30 year bond is Down 18 ticks and trading at 142.06.


Indices: The June S&P 500 emini ES contract is 21 ticks Lower and trading at 2725.75.


Gold: The June gold contract is trading Down at 1310.80. Gold is 76 ticks Lower than its close.

Initial Conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The dollar is Up+ and Crude is Up+ which is not normal and the 30 year Bond is trading Lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Higher which is correlated. Gold is trading Down- which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up+. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.


At this hour Asia is trading mainly Higher with the exception of the Sensex and Shanghai exchanges which is presently Lower. At this time all of Europe is trading Mixed.

Possible Challenges To Traders Today

  • Core Retail Sales are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
  • Retail Sales are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
  • Empire State Mfg Index is out at 8:30 AM. This is major.
  • Mortgage Delinquencies. This is not major.
  • Business Inventories is out at 10 AM. This is not major.
  • NAHB Housing Market Index is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
  • FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 12:45 PM. This is major.
  • TIC Long-Term Purchases is out at 4 PM. No Impact on session.

Treasuries


We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The YM futures contract. The YM contract is the DJIA and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.


Yesterday the ZB made it's move at around 9:30 AM EST. The ZB hit a Low at around that time and the YM hit a High. If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 9:30 AM EST and the YM was moving Lower at the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a Low at around 9:30 AM and the YM was trending Lower at the same time. These charts represent the newest version of MultiCharts and I've changed the timeframe to a 30 minute chart to display better. This represented a shorting opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $31.25.


Charts Courtesy of MultiCharts built on an AMP platform Click on an image to enlarge it.


https://www.insidefutures.com/article/2186217/No News is Still Good News.html
 

BarnacleBob

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FunnyMoney

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as we were speaking to,

dollar up over 93 this am, and resulting in big metals declines,

also stated, US is exporting oil like a mofo, and that would lead to dollar demand to pay for it,

and that kudlow was in the admin, who is a never ending strong dollar type

Export all our oil while prices are good they say.

Export it now because technology or some upstart in silicon valley will come up with a replacement for the torque of the internal combustion engine. Or we have plenty of water and topsoil to grow bio fuels one day.
LOL

All the while China only drills offshore or in foreign lands while they trade paper money for resources.

March this equation along for another 3 or 4 decades and what do you think is going to happen?
 

BarnacleBob

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Export all our oil while prices are good they say.

Export it now because technology or some upstart in silicon valley will come up with a replacement for the torque of the internal combustion engine. Or we have plenty of water and topsoil to grow bio fuels one day.
LOL

All the while China only drills offshore or in foreign lands while they trade paper money for resources.

March this equation along for another 3 or 4 decades and what do you think is going to happen?
Global warming & peak oil, etc. are just scams... Only a fool would believe the numbers. There are no shortages of energy, only excess bull sh*t. As for the MYTH of China being this great power & threat to the west, I call b.s. there too.... China is teaching their students english, the west isn't teaching its students mandarin, that ought to be proof enuff. The west BUILT the east, not the other way around. This isnt intellectually challenging to understand once the fear mongering propaghanda is recognized as a fraudulent misrepresentation.....
 

FunnyMoney

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Global warming & peak oil, etc. are just scams... Only a fool would believe the numbers. There are no shortages of energy, only excess bull sh*t. As for the MYTH of China being this great power & threat to the west, I call b.s. there too.... China is teaching their students english, the west isn't teaching its students mandarin, that ought to be proof enuff. The west BUILT the east, not the other way around. This isnt intellectually challenging to understand once the fear mongering propaghanda is recognized as a fraudulent misrepresentation.....
If you think another move or two ahead, the "proof enuff" falls apart or worse.

But I agree the numbers keep prices high. But I don't believe energy is infinite. I do believe energy is going to be much more expensive in the future. Solar requires a lot of maintenance and a lot of rare metals. Constructions of all types and agriculture work best using the internal combustion engine. Language learning may only be a short term move if you're right. But there's an outside the box take on that also.

Right now it appears the west is on top and way ahead although not when it comes to bullet trains but in everything else it's true. Fast forward a few decades and things get foggy.

If you're right, aok. But what if you're not?

What's wrong with spending money on our future instead of on destructive tactics around the globe? What's wrong with auditing our gold and stockpiling silver and rare metals? What's wrong with transparency? What's wrong with preparing for an uncertain future? I see no downside to preparing for the future and laying out the cards on the table for the American worker to see. I see no downside in spending 500 billion on our own people instead of those 500B on a war machine. We can't protect ourselves with the remaining MIC allocation?

Maybe you're right. But there's a lot of unknowns and what are our children supposed to do if it doesn't turn out like you say and the roth-kazars in China do win?

While I would relish it if you are right. From what I see on the ground, in our cities and the direction we and the world are going, it makes me think that your optimism about something that can't be proven, you're extrapolation into the future is not only imprudent, it scares me.

The master operates best when he knows the language of the slave. The slave doesn't need to know the language of the master.
 
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BarnacleBob

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If you think another move or two ahead, the "proof enuff" falls apart or worse.

But I agree the numbers keep prices high. But I don't believe energy is infinite. I do believe energy is going to be much more expensive in the future. Solar requires a lot of maintenance and a lot of rare metals. Constructions of all types and agriculture work best using the internal combustion engine. Language learning may only be a short term move if you're right. But there's an outside the box take on that also.

Right now it appears the west is on top and way ahead although not when it comes to bullet trains but in everything else it's true. Fast forward a few decades and things get foggy.

If you're right, aok. But what if you're not?

What's wrong with spending money on our future instead of on destructive tactics around the globe? What's wrong with auditing our gold and stockpiling silver and rare metals? What's wrong with transparency? What's wrong with preparing for an uncertain future? I see no downside to preparing for the future and laying out the cards on the table for the American worker to see. I see no downside in spending 500 billion on our own people instead of those 500B on a war machine. We can't protect ourselves with the remaining MIC allocation?

Maybe you're right. But there's a lot of unknowns and what are our children supposed to do if it doesn't turn out like you say and the roth-kazars in China do win?

While I would relish it if you are right. From what I see on the ground, in our cities and the direction we and the world are going, it makes me think that your optimism about something that can't be proven, you're extrapolation into the future is not only imprudent, it scares me.

The master operates best when he knows the language of the slave. The slave doesn't need to know the language of the master.
The Chins are the ones who are stealing blueprints, creating knock-offs and all kinds of fake look alikes, etc.. They require understanding the language to recreate the technology. Secondly, they are not innovating or even investing in discovery or the invention of new products... I have watched several documentaries on mainland China, they live in the moment and dont believe in the future. They dont maintain things....

Start naming off all of the new major products, discoveries & innovations that China has produced in the last 50 years...Well you cannot, because they havent. The ROW, especially the west is so far ahead of them they are forced into being copy-cats when they are not producing for corp. customers.

I'm not worried about China in least bit, they are what they are, they're not bringing a basket full of hopium to the world anytime in the next century.

The NATO Alliance IS the strongest most powerful military alliance the world has ever seen. As long as NATO remains strong, there are/is no other military power on Earth that can challenge its military superiority... which means nothing below that authority is challengable either, namely economics, finance & polity! These are facts.....
 

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The master operates best when he knows the language of the slave. The slave doesn't need to know the language of the master.
China now holds $3 tt U.S. Treasury bonds.... Sorry, $3 tt doesnt make them a master... I cannot understand why so many people remain ignorant of why countries seek U.S.T's! U.S. Treasury bonds are a replacement for gold... they sit as capital in a countries banking system. As that countries banking system grows & expands, the country purchases U.S. Treasuries as base collateral performing the role that an amount of gold once performed.

China can sell off all of their UST's but that would get them kicked out of the global dollar credit club. They would be barred & banished from world trade immediately. Those UST's sit as collateral for Chinas trade and their domestic banking system as previously stated.

I assure you that if a member of the club, say China dumped all of their $3 tt U.S. bonds in one day, the organized western central bank system would buy them up without it even disrupting the system with a hiccup.... After the 2007/08 GFC, the U.S. Fed created & lent $16 tt.... $3 tt is nothing nowadays!

Again, I fail to see how China is this grandiose threat, secondly the Chins are more reliant on the global dollar denominated credit system to accomadate trade then we are on the Chins.... We are not the slaves in this scenario... its an Anglo/American/French system and the Chins must play by the rules or they will be forced out of the system....

Nothing hard to understand about these facts...
 

savvydon

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China now holds $3 tt U.S. Treasury bonds.... Sorry, $3 tt doesnt make them a master... I cannot understand why so many people remain ignorant of why countries seek U.S.T's! U.S. Treasury bonds are a replacement for gold... they sit as capital in a countries banking system. As that countries banking system grows & expands, the country purchases U.S. Treasuries as base collateral performing the role that an amount of gold once performed.

China can sell off all of their UST's but that would get them kicked out of the global dollar credit club. They would be barred & banished from world trade immediately. Those UST's sit as collateral for Chinas trade and their domestic banking system as previously stated.

I assure you that if a member of the club, say China dumped all of their $3 tt U.S. bonds in one day, the organized western central bank system would buy them up without it even disrupting the system with a hiccup.... After the 2007/08 GFC, the U.S. Fed created & lent $16 tt.... $3 tt is nothing nowadays!

Again, I fail to see how China is this grandiose threat, secondly the Chins are more reliant on the global dollar denominated credit system to accomadate trade then we are on the Chins.... We are not the slaves in this scenario... its an Anglo/American/French system and the Chins must play by the rules or they will be forced out of the system....

Nothing hard to understand about these facts...
Interesting few posts. Certainly goes against the grain of what is constantly being pumped out for public consumption, at least at the troughs where I usually visit. Food for thought. Always good to see a fresh perspective.
 
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BarnacleBob

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Interesting few posts. Certainly goes against the grain of what is constantly being pumped out for public consumption, at least at the troughs where usually visit. Food for thought. Always good to see a fresh perspective.
Who is really responsible for all of the imported Chinese crap products flooding into the west? Its not the Chins, they are just producing to specs what they are told to produce by the western corps! The corporate controlled & owned media continue propaghandizing the evil Chins... when in fact it is their corporate overlords who are responsible for quality & price controls of imported & domestically produced goods & services .... the Chins are like the rest of us, we are all dependent "subjects" of the commercial credit & banking system..... the system is our master & enemy, not the Chins!

"We are completely dependent on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash, or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system. When one gets a complete grasp of the picture, the tragic absurdity of our hopeless position is almost incredible, but there it is. It [the banking problem] is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects are remedied very soon." -- Robert Hemphill, Credit Manager, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
 

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BB Is there a "simple, understandable" way to explain this to Joe Paycheck in a few minutes to help him understand when he has no financial education?
 

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BB Is there a "simple, understandable" way to explain this to Joe Paycheck in a few minutes to help him understand when he has no financial education?
I dont think so.... the MSM, etc. et al have done a good job of prejudicing the truth, shutting down the thought processes and creating new fears & insecurities. This, the constant programming seems to be THE major problem in getting people to take a rational look & analysis of geopolitics & geoeconomics.... Scorpio & I have spoken out for over a decade on these subjects, namely that most of the fear mongering whether its China, Russia, N. Korea, Iran, Cuba or Venezuela is pure nonsense... same can be said of some country dumping UST's or the UST bond market crashing... its pure nonsense. The entire global trade & economics system would implode in a day if such a crash occurred... the U.S.T. market will be supported and prevented from crashing at least until a new system can be erected in everyones self-interest. Consider that if the UST market were to crash, the crash would render almost every banking system in use around the world today insolvent.... Billions of people around the world would starve & die off, governments would collapse when world trade terminated. It amazes me that people read this fear mongering nonsense but wont consider that every .gov would work together to prevent their .govs from collapsing. Keep in mind that the Fed created & lent out $16 tt after the GFC of 2007/08, the U.S. .Gov also spent $4 tt in stimulus programs... That was $20 tt in emergency funding by just the U.S.... no doubt they'll do it again & again & again to prevent .govs & economies from crashing. There is a long history of this behavior in contemporary history, in fact its why gold was abandoned and fiat credit system was adopted.... The CB's can issue unlimited credit without any limits to save the system..... its just that simple.
 

Scorpio

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Scorpio & I have spoken out for over a decade on these subjects,
Thank you BB, and yes we have

time after time only to be shouted down by the most recent headlines or propaganda pushes to the contrary,

in these few posts, you have encapsulated much of what we have been braying about for some time.

and as you state, for any reasonable person, it is totally logical and accurate. We have tried to blow holes in it every time there is yet another push of disinformation, only to arrive back where we started.

I have yet to find quantifiable proof that our theories and assumptions are off the mark.

For instance, just to back up the commentary about the chins getting the capability from us. There is no reason to believe what is stated here. Just google the klinton years, and watch the players. I can still remember the chins being escorted through our top secret nuc facilities and sac air bases at the time, leaving with black suitcases stuffed with data. When pressure was applied, they tossed up a sacrificial lamb for 'theft of secrets', but the game did not end.

Or another, is anyone really that dense to believe these traitors of silicon valley can ship their manufacturing over there, and pretend to keep their processes and proprietary info secret? Seriously?

It is all so obvious that I have a hard time understanding how it is not commonly accepted. One only need to review the history of Japan post the war to see the blueprints. That is where the light bulb kicked on for me, your mileage may vary.

Go back again, as most of here are old enough to remember it well. All the rage was the incredible industriousness of the Japanese way and peoples. Amerikan companies rapidly flying over there and coming back with all manner of gimmicks to emulate their style of management. It was a 'miracle' of human achievement, until it wasn't. Flying high as they were coming here and buying up prized RE possessions in the US with the Yen strength.



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The Japanese were getting rich from exports to the United States and they wanted more. Armed with low-cost capital and swollen bank accounts, U.S. real estate seemed a good buy. Between 1985 and 1988, Japanese investments in U.S. real estate jumped from $1.5 billion to $43 billion.


The geographical concentration of their investment, California, Hawaii and New York, fueled fears. Estimates had the Japanese owning up to 30% of downtown Los Angeles office space.


High-profile acquisitions compounded fears that the Japanese were buying out America. The Arco Plaza in Los Angeles was purchased for $620 million, and three Manhattan office towers - the Exxon Building for $610 million, 666 Fifth Ave. for $301 million and the Mobil Building for $250 million - all were bought by Japanese investors. Japanese spending peaked with their $1.4 billion stake in Rockefeller Center. As it turned out, the Japanese were the only investors that played the 1980s real estate boom more poorly than U.S. investors.

http://www.nreionline.com/mag/1980s-too-easy-money-fuels-new-building-boom
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but, I digress, carry on, my bad

Ohh, and it is different this time with the chins

Uhhh Huh
 

Scorpio

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The Long View: Mitsubishi reloaded? Chinese NYC investment echoes the Japanese
in the 80s

Japan's boom and bust is a warning to firms like Anbang


By Konrad Putzier | March 29, 2017 08:45AM







With every billion-dollar check a Chinese institution writes for a Manhattan trophy property, similarities to the Japanese investment boom of the late 1980s become more apparent. That boom was followed by a crash in the early 90s. And there are early warning signs that history could repeat itself.

Last week, The Real Deal first reported that Chinese conglomerate HNA Group signed a deal to buy Brookfield’s 245 Park Avenue for $2.21 billion. If the deal for the office tower closes at that price, it would be one of the most expensive deals for a single Manhattan building ever recorded, behind the 2008 sale of the GM building, the 2015 sale of 11 Madison Avenue and the 2016 sale of 3 Bryant Park. Chinese insurer Anbang Insurance Group, which paid $1.95 billion for the Waldorf Astoria hotel in February 2015, isn’t too far behind. (Though it was in talks to dwarf both transactions if it had gone through with an audacious plan to convert 666 Fifth Avenue into condos with Kushner Companies, Anbang is now out of that deal.)


Chinese companies are now the dominant foreign investors in Manhattan’s real estate market. Back in the 80s, that title belonged to Japan, whose financial behemoths bought a dozen trophy skyscrapers, often at record prices. In 1987, Dai-Ichi Mutual Life Insurance Company bought 601 Lexington Avenue — at the time assessed as the city’s third-most valuable building — for $670 million. But by far the priciest deal of the era, the 666 Fifth of the 80s if you will, was Mitsubishi Estate’s acquisition of an 80-percent stake in Rockefeller Center in 1989 and 1990 for $1.4 billion (around $2.6 billion in today’s dollars).

Between the early 80s and mid-90s, Japanese firms invested a staggering $78 billion in U.S. real estate. The frenzy peaked in 1988 with $16.7 billion in deals signed that year, or around $34 billion in today’s dollars, according to a study by accounting firm E&Y Kenneth Leventhal. That’s more than double the record $14.3 billion Chinese investors spent on U.S. commercial and residential property in 2016. But the deals signed and reported in early 2017 suggest China is catching up.

It’s not just the scale of Chinese investment that recalls the Japanese fervor of the 80s. Both the countries’ buying sprees occurred under similar circumstances. In the 80s, Japan was a rapidly booming exporting economy with a massive trade surplus that caused anxiety in the U.S. It was also caught up in a property and credit bubble. All of the above arguably applies to China today.

Japanese investors in the 80s were highly leveraged, which contributed to their eventual bust. Though Chinese institutional investors today are said to be cash-rich and much less leveraged in comparison, their finances are murky. Anbang, for example, reportedly gets much of its capital from short-term investment products it sells to Chinese savers – a fickle and risky source of funding.

more here:
https://therealdeal.com/2017/03/29/...yc-investment-echoes-the-japanese-in-the-80s/
 

Uglytruth

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For those that don't know. One man was pretty much responsible for helping Japan get back on their feet. Funny but the US then ignored what he did there for decades only when their backs were against the wall to embrace his ideals under a new name & call it "new". Anyone in business should study his simple 14 points book and embrace his ideas.

Go back again, as most of here are old enough to remember it well. All the rage was the incredible industriousness of the Japanese way and peoples. Amerikan companies rapidly flying over there and coming back with all manner of gimmicks to emulate their style of management. It was a 'miracle' of human achievement, until it wasn't. Flying high as they were coming here and buying up prized RE possessions in the US with the Yen strength.
William Edwards Deming (October 14, 1900 – December 20, 1993) was an American engineer, statistician, professor, author, lecturer, and management consultant. Educated initially as an electrical engineer and later specializing in mathematical physics, he helped develop the sampling techniques still used by the U.S. Department of the Census and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In his book, The New Economics for Industry, Government, and Education,[1] Deming championed the work of Walter Shewhart, including statistical process control, operational definitions, and what Deming called the "Shewhart Cycle"[2] which had evolved into Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA). This was in response to the growing popularity of PDCA, which Deming viewed as tampering with the meaning of Shewhart's original work.[3] Deming is best known for his work in Japan after WWII, particularly his work with the leaders of Japanese industry. That work began in August 1950 at the Hakone Convention Center in Tokyo, when Deming delivered a speech on what he called "Statistical Product Quality Administration". Many in Japan credit Deming as one of the inspirations for what has become known as the Japanese post-war economic miracle of 1950 to 1960, when Japan rose from the ashes of war on the road to becoming the second-largest economy in the world through processes partially influenced by the ideas Deming taught:[4]


  1. Better design of products to improve service
  2. Higher level of uniform product quality
  3. Improvement of product testing in the workplace and in research centers
  4. Greater sales through side [global] markets

Deming is best known in the United States for his 14 Points (Out of the Crisis, by W. Edwards Deming, preface) and his system of thought he called the "System of Profound Knowledge". The system includes four components or "lenses" through which to view the world simultaneously:


  1. Appreciating a system
  2. Understanding variation
  3. Psychology
  4. Epistemology, the theory of knowledge[5]

Deming made a significant contribution to Japan's reputation for innovative, high-quality products, and for its economic power. He is regarded as having had more impact on Japanese manufacturing and business than any other individual not of Japanese heritage. Despite being honored in Japan in 1951 with the establishment of the Deming Prize, he was only just beginning to win widespread recognition in the U.S. at the time of his death in 1993.[6] President Ronald Reagan awarded him the National Medal of Technology in 1987. The following year, the National Academy of Sciences gave Deming the Distinguished Career in Science award.
 

TAEZZAR

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All that being said & PM's are dropping like a rock ! :totally steamed:
1526655815624.png
 

BarnacleBob

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Scorpio

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trade war put on hold for now,

dollar continues to rise, with metals heading for support at 1275 in gold

again though, oil continues to rise even with the dollar moving up,
this demonstrates real oil strength if it is overriding any dollar moves,

they have demand strong with the oil in storage overall continuing to drop along with the continued weakness in the Venezuela oil fields.

even with US oil production replacing Vene, the supposed opec cuts continue to tighten stocks from what they were.
 

Uglytruth

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Wash, rinse, repeat has been replaced..............
Manipulate, falsify, repeat
 

BarnacleBob

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The once mighty $140 share DB just cant seem to catch a bid with the boot on its throat.... call it a future fen???

sc-1.png
 

BarnacleBob

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Day two...

sc-2.png
 

BarnacleBob

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they are saying zero land has some problems yet again,

seems to me as though it might shelve our fed in June from going with a increase,

sounds like Italy is ground zero this time
Turkey also has a pending lire problem, they need $ but cant get any!