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Scorpio

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If sears does go to liquidation, I wonder what happens to all of those hometown sears stores, those that are small footprint and ran by local owners?

If they go down, where is their supply chain or are they also gone? Many of those are newly opened or converted businesses, ie the very recent past.

Not sure how they play with mamma corp?

--------------

A Sears liquidation could create some winners and over 100,000 losers

By Tonya Garcia

Published: Oct 11, 2018 5:00 p.m. ET


More malls will have a ‘dark anchor’ and retirees could feel a pinch

Sears Holdings Corp.’s seemingly imminent liquidation could create some winners and many losers, according to experts.


With major lenders now pressing for liquidation versus reorganization, Sears SHLD, -29.70% could soon be going out of business.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a...ome-winners-and-over-100000-losers-2018-10-11
 

ErrosionOfAccord

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The small Sears in my town finally went belly up a couple of years ago. It's still vacant. Kmart is having it's going out of biz sale here right now. Coal is on life support but oil is starting to see life again out here.
 

Scorpio

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EA,,.

I went into a sears that is closing somewhat near me. The prices weren't anything great. They were using full sticker price, then claiming 50% or 70% off, and even after discounts, the pricing wasn't that great.

Around here, they are stockpiling frac sand for winter and the piles are getting very large. Operating it seems 24x7
 

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Is tramp right about rates rising too far too fast?

While the fed is bound and determined to supposedly decrease their balance sheet as well as 'supposedly' normalizing interest rates, there are definite signs that the rate increases are having a effect.

Housing starts are down
Housing affordability is down
Sales are down
Refis are down

Yet, part of this is related to development costs, input costs, as well as land costs.

Prices are up significantly due to labor and input costs. The tariffs have impacted many items in the supply chain.

Talk is prices have to come down to effect affordability,

and that is just housing,
what about all the other levels of rate impacts in the economy?

then add in increasing rates should also put a tailwind on the dollar, driving it up and increasing our trade deficits across the board
 

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Is tramp right about rates rising too far too fast?
I believe so. The problem is that rates had been kept too low for too long during Obozo's admin. IMHO they should have already been at today's level 2-3 years ago.
 

Scorpio

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yeah, don't disagree with you at all,

just seems that the pace is now beyond what all can absorb in such a short time frame,

personal debt, corporate debt, .gov debt all getting slammed within a 12 mos period.

there is a mountain of corp debt coming due over the next year and 1/2 or so, couple of trillion or so, that will have to be repapered higher

and we all know where .gov debt is

that is just the stuff already on the books,

then we have to factor what this does to current econ activity
 

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I believe so. The problem is that rates had been kept too low for too long during Obozo's admin. IMHO they should have already been at today's level 2-3 years ago.
It bubble trouble, the Fed isnt managing either the economy or the banking system, they are managing the dollar & dollar denominated bonds, which both are in bubbles due to their global use. The stock market, domestic labor pool & economy have been artificially boosted by the Feds actions to keep these "targeted" bubbles inflated, now that these bubbles are stabilized, the bubblicous stock market, etc. will correct along with the economy & labor pool.... Its not like the Fed hasnt transmitted their intentions to investors, corporations, banks, politicians & the general public, for they have publicly & openly provided their intentions & long term stabilization policies regarding pegged rates for the previous 8 or more years... WTF do these people think they were kidding & they were not going to raise rates? And now that the rates are rising the exploiters, specs, & political classes are now crying because the punch bowl isnt being refilled to their liking?
 

Scorpio

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And now that the rates are rising the exploiters, specs, & political classes are now crying because the punch bowl isnt being refilled to their liking?
ohh, 'yer such a negative little billy goat aren't ya...........

the reality is, everything adapts to current conditions, including low rates,

and that includes prices also,

which goes back to one of the original discussions from years gone by, wages have to increase for persons to afford current prices of housing, vehicles, and so on.

with increased prices and rates, now those wage increases have to be even larger or there is no market for the goods.

as stated earlier, once prices are established, you will play hell trying to bring them back. You aren't getting a mschevy truck for 20 grand ever again unless it is used.

coffee went up a ton when futures surpassed $220, and now that they are back in the $130 or so range, prices haven't come down and they won't. The system eats the spread.

these companies went a long time without pushing thru price increases and they will fight like hell to maintain pricing even if inputs decrease.

don't have a problem at all with them raising rates to more normal levels, it is only the pace I disagree with. Now is the right time to get off the floor.

along with their timing of course, they wait until tramp is on top then start raising to beat the ban at full throttle,

that too is telling

while at this, we must not forget that the rest of the world is unable to keep the pace, with many at flat to nowhere. Meaning the dollar has to catch a bid comparatively. Which is all fine as then we can import deflation. yet that has its own set of risks.

it has already been shown where our trade deficits are climbing once again due to the disparities.
 

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Either prices come down or wages move up.... the Fed used interest rates to offset wages rising with the general price index, low cost credit was substituted for rising wages.... which essentially subsidised corporate profits! This lil scam has run its course...
 

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China economic growth slumps to weakest since 2009, demand ebbs as trade war bites


BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s economic growth cooled to its weakest pace since the global financial crisis in the third quarter, raising pressure on Beijing to step up policy support as a years-long campaign to tackle debt risks and the trade war with the United States began to bite.

much more here:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...gn=Feed:+reuters/businessNews+(Business+News)
 

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China economic growth slumps to weakest since 2009, demand ebbs as trade war bites


BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s economic growth cooled to its weakest pace since the global financial crisis in the third quarter, raising pressure on Beijing to step up policy support as a years-long campaign to tackle debt risks and the trade war with the United States began to bite.

much more here:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-gdp/china-economic-growth-slumps-to-weakest-since-2009-demand-ebbs-as-trade-war-bites-idUSKCN1MS3B1?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+reuters/businessNews+(Business+News)
I think the entire trade war is nonsense, contrived by TPTB to intentionally cool down both the Chin & US economies, it moves the target from the Fed & BoC raising rates and shifts the burden onto the political units....
 

Scorpio

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something we have talked of, the amount of debt existing in the corp space,

someone like apple taking on debt to buy back stock is on thing, as they have so much cash on the BS, but many many of these companies aren't sitting on hoards of cash,

----------

A $150 billion investment chief breaks down a ticking time bomb in markets that traders are foolishly ignoring

(couple of snips)


He's specifically worried about the number of US companies whose credit ratings are sitting dangerously close to junk levels, and he warns that an economic slowdown could bring conditions to a head.

"But half of that is just one step above junk," McMillan explained in an interview with Business Insider. "So we're only one economic slowdown away from a significant portion of the investment-grade market dropping to high-yield."

http://www.businessinsider.fr/us/cr...mcmillan-says-traders-are-ignoring-it-2018-10
 

Scorpio

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in a interesting turn of events,

since the announcement of the dead reporter and the calls for sanctions against the sauds, oil has been collapsing

now you would think, tensions with the head of opec, and a major oil supplier to the world would drive prices higher or at least add volatility

quite the opposite is happening, along with demand decreasing numbers here

should be telling us something, maybe that the run to 75 was smoke and mirrors compared to supply/demand fundamentals and we now resort to the norm or?

1.png
 

Scorpio

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few of us wondered out loud if the big money on the communist side would try to attack the markets,

china, russia, google, amazon, etc all communists and not happy with the continued rise of the us markets while socialist pain is absorbed across the world

us markets have been getting hit for a bit here as we approach the mids. Might be some hedging of the action there as they lock in profits just in case the dems pull a rabbit.

there is another one on the horizon with Italy submitting a budget to the EU that was rejected. They want Italy to cut spending as they are over target.

Now there is talk of Italy leaving the Eu, and it is being coined It-a-leave
 

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Italy has their own version of Trump right now, good for them they needed it. So of course the bed wetting faggots in the EU are going to try to punish them. They will fail.

Italy’s New Government Goes Full Trump
Twitter tirades, nationalistic rhetoric, race-baiting, and immigrant-bashing—no, this is not America, this is the new Italy.

Matteo Salvini vowed to lock up migrants rescued at sea in closed detention centers, calling them “criminals” and “felons” and telling them their “free ride is over.” If it sounds an awful lot like what U.S. President Donald Trump says about Mexicans crossing into the United States, it could be because Salvini is a YUGE fan of the man who vows to make America great again.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/italys-new-government-goes-full-trump
 

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Wow, DB closes @ $10.00 share today... Largest bank in Germany & EU!

sc.png
 

Scorpio

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for anyone that has been watching some of the earnings coming in,

a pattern developed where they announced fantastic earnings, but negative gross sales to estimates,

meaning to me, the earnings are but a financial magic show,

they did not all of a sudden become better operators, sucking more blood out of a lesser gross revenue dollar.

no, not at all

smoke and mirrors
 

BarnacleBob

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Scorpio

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Banco Santander
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Banco Santander S.A.

Type
PublicTraded as
ISIN ES0113900J37Industry Financial servicesFounded Santander, Spain
(1857; 161 years ago)Headquarters Santander, Spain
Area served
Europe, North America, South America, Singapore, Hong Kong, Africa.
Key people
Ana Patricia Botín (Chairman)
José Antonio Alvarez (CEO)Products Retail, corporate, investment and private banking, insurance, asset management, private equityRevenue
€48.392 billion (2017)[1]
Operating income
€25.473 billion (2017)[1]
Net income
€8.963 billion (2017)[1]Total assets
€1.444 trillion (2017)[1]Total equity
€106.832 billion (2017)[1]
Number of employees
193,863 (2015)[1]Website www.santander.com

Banco Santander, S.A., doing business as Santander Group (/ˌsɑːntɑːnˈdɛər/), is a Spanish multinational commercial bank and financial services company founded and based in Santander, Spain. In addition to hubs in Madrid and Barcelona, Santander maintains a presence in all global financial centres as the largest Spanish banking institution in the world. Although known for its European banking operations, it has extended operations across North and South America, and more recently in continental Asia.
Many subsidiaries, such as Abbey National, have been rebranded under the Santander name. The company is a component of the Euro Stoxx 50 stock market index. In May 2016, Santander was ranked as 37th in the Forbes Global 2000 list of the world's biggest public companies. Santander is Spain’s largest bank.[2] In September 2018 it was announced that incumbent chief executive José Antonio Alvarez would be succeeded by Andrea Orcel in early 2019.[3][4]
As of 2017-18, Santander is the 5th largest bank in Europe with approximately US$1.4 trillion in total assets-under-management (AUM).[5] Traded on the Euro Stoxx 50 stock market index, the bank has a total market capitalization of $69.9 billion.[6]
 

BarnacleBob

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Imagine, someone got paid for this!

 

Scorpio

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Dow stages biggest intraday reversal in more than 8 months; Nasdaq sees biggest U-turn in 3 years

By Mark DeCambre

Published: Oct 30, 2018 12:56 a.m. ET

Boeing takes a 163-point chunk out of the Dow industrials

Talk about a blown lead. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up a 352-point gain to end lower Monday and highlighted a market that has grown increasingly unsettled amid concerns about global growth and escalating tariff clashes between the U.S. and China.

The action marked the biggest U-turn for the Dow industrials DJIA, -0.99% since Feb. 7, when the Dow erased a roughly 382-point gain to finish with gut-wrenching losses. On Monday, the Dow closed down 245 points, or 1%, at 24,442.92. The day’s losses were even more stomach-churning than that closing level implies because the blue-chip gauge earlier had been down by as many as 566.08 points to an intra-session low of 24,122.23, which would have put the Dow in correction territory for the second time in 2018. Corrections are usually defined by a drop of at least 10% from a recent peak. (The S&P 500 index SPX, -0.66% already is in correction territory after last week’s ugly action.)


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/d...daq-sees-biggest-u-turn-in-3-years-2018-10-29
 

Scorpio

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Stocks could rally 20% after this bruising rout, says Guggenheim’s Minerd — after that, watch out

By Mark DeCambre

Published: Oct 29, 2018 4:47 p.m. ET




Minerd predicts that the U.S. stock market will fall 40% or 50% after they surge


Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners has some good news — and some bad news — for stock-market investors.

First, the good news: If investors are smarting from a bludgeoning that has racked up withering weekly losses for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.99% , the S&P 500 SPX, -0.66% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -1.63% , they can look forward to rosier days ahead.

Minerd, chief investment officer for Guggenheim and one of the world’s preeminent bond-fund managers, on Friday said that the recent rout has left the market relatively cheap, compared with its previous lofty levels, and that has created potential for stocks to surge higher in the next few weeks and months: “Stocks are cheap based on forward multiples and should rally by 15%-20% from here unless policy uncertainty around China and tariffs remains in place,” Minerd tweeted.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...genheims-minerd-but-then-watch-out-2018-10-26
 

Scorpio

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fyi, more smoke and mirrors in the earnings,

stating higher earnings, yet falling gross,

now mind you, many of these are the silicons, the fake companies like face/apple/etc

the silicons don't do anything and don't make anything of value, but they carry massive valuations based on hype
they are minting dough off pet rocks,

but watch, as they get exposed for what they are, is it possible that their revenues start to move down?

for instance, Apple is sitting on mountains of inventory, outsized amounts of inventory

some other silicons are on the zero zone shitlist, ie they are planning on taxing them just for existing,
as of course politicians see all that cash and want their cut, just as any Don would.
 

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1541551600458.png


My apology for the poor chart. Anyone know what's going on with WTI crude? After bottoming in early 2016 at $30, it has had a steady, yet choppy rise to $76 that has accelerated the past 3 months and given those 3-month gains all back. Now at $62 and dropping like silbur in a lake after a boating accident.
 

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sc.png
 

keef

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This is the best post on the forum currently.
All the 'conspiracys' from the old time gold bugs turned out to be correct.

Problem now is all the disinformation on the Internet (flat earth/no moon landing) to discredit 'conspiracy' forums.

I liked it better when we were labled tin hats, cuz now that it's all out in the open we realize no one is going to do anything. No justice. Zilch.

They can fk us all they want and we can't do shit.

Now EVERYTHING is manipulated. There are no markets anymore, no justice, it's a free for all for the crooks.
 

andial

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All the 'conspiracys' from the old time gold bugs turned out to be correct.

Problem now is all the disinformation on the Internet (flat earth/no moon landing) to discredit 'conspiracy' forums.

I liked it better when we were labled tin hats, cuz now that it's all out in the open we realize no one is going to do anything. No justice. Zilch.

They can fk us all they want and we can't do shit.

Now EVERYTHING is manipulated. There are no markets anymore, no justice, it's a free for all for the crooks.
Wouldn’t mining companies at least some small legit ones be going after JP morgan now? i guess owners of the large miners are being paid off not to sue.
 

keef

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Wouldn’t mining companies at least some small legit ones be going after JP morgan now? i guess owners of the large miners are being paid off not to sue.
JP Morgan and those like them run this country now. The miners will do what they are told or fold.

Why are we living in the past here on this forum. Voting hahahahaha. Q hahahahahah We are the people? hahahahaha

It's over. We live under a complete totalitarian regime today. Most of mankind has lived like this through all of recorded history and we will get used to it.

Trump had the right ideas as a youth but by the time he finally came into office it was much too late.
 

BarnacleBob

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JP Morgan and those like them run this country now. The miners will do what they are told or fold.

Why are we living in the past here on this forum. Voting hahahahaha. Q hahahahahah We are the people? hahahahaha

It's over. We live under a complete totalitarian regime today. Most of mankind has lived like this through all of recorded history and we will get used to it.

Trump had the right ideas as a youth but by the time he finally came into office it was much too late.
Couldnt agree more.... Voting is a farce, same as the rule of law, both are actually law of rule....
 

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From Simon Black:

Here are all the ways inflation is happening today

November 8, 2018
Manila, Philippines

Something strange happened in the markets last month that signals trouble ahead…

When stocks fell from their September highs, you would have expected investors to run for cover in the world’s safe-haven asset – US Treasurys.

But that’s not what happened.

While stocks were plunging, Treasurys also fell. Yields on 30-year Treasurys increased to 3.4% from 3.22% (and yields have already more than doubled from their 2016 lows).

It’s a sign that the market is worried about the US government’s ability to pay its exploding debts and that inflation is creeping back into the market. That makes me a bit nervous because we haven’t seen inflation in a decade.

We’ve seen an increase in oil prices, food prices, rent and many other things that eat into people’s savings. Unemployment is low and US wages increased 3.1% in September (the highest in nine years). And core inflation is already running above the Fed’s target of 2%.

In general, inflation is nothing to panic about. The Fed is supposed to raise rates when inflation heats up, which it’s been doing.

But as rates have moved higher, we’ve already seen stocks and real estate fall.

The entire financial system has been dependent on super low rates for the past ten years. The Fed held rates at zero for a decade and printed trillions of dollars.

The increase in prices and interest rates to date is only the beginning.

Just take a look at what’s happening in the economy right now…

Food companies like Coca-Cola, Mondelez, Hershey and Kellogg are all raising prices as both ingredient and transportation costs increase. Kellogg’s CEO recently said in an interview, “We think 2019 will be more inflationary than we have seen historically since the recession.”

McDonald’s and Chili’s both raised prices.

Airlines are paying 40% more for jet fuel than they were a year ago.

Manufacturing companies are paying 8% more for aluminum and 38% more for steel than a year ago… and they’re dealing with a 10% tariff on Chinese goods.

Paint company Sherwin-Williams increased prices in its stores as much as 6% last month, with the CEO saying “Raw material inflation has been unrelenting and accelerating.”

Even Apple is falling victim to inflation. The company raised prices on its new MacBook Air and iPad Pro by 20% and 25%, respectively.

Companies are passing along price increases to you, the consumer. And that makes it harder for you to “tread water” financially.

The Fed will have to further boost interest rates in reaction to this inflation.

But it’s raising rates while the US government is running trillion-dollar deficits into perpetuity. And now it will have to pay more interest on that debt (which it already can’t afford).

The world hasn’t seen inflation in a decade now. But it’s coming. And while the Fed is raising rates to combat inflation, there’s zero chance it hits the perfect mix to keep markets chugging along.

Remember, we’ve already seen the stock market and real estate panic crash in response to a small interest rate hike.

And I think there’s more pain ahead as inflation really starts to work its way into the economy.

With inflation looming, I’d want to own some gold. I’m also happy waiting it out in 28-day Treasury bills, so I’m liquid when buying opportunities arise.

And next week, I’ll share another interesting asset you can hold to combat inflation (something that’s trading close to its post-crisis lows).

To your freedom,



Simon Black,