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BarnacleBob

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Scorpio

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yep, GE is in the doghouse big time

and replaced by a reseller, a friggin' nobody

if you notice, the dow, the duck, etc, those up and around the top are not producers but blood suckers,
vig takers

goog, amazon, faceplant, walgreens, apple etc all make nothing, not a damn thing

they are all blood sucking whores

but scorp, apple makes phones.........

no, they don't. The phones are pharmed to chin li and they resell them, they don't make squat
 

BarnacleBob

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chart-1.gif


1 Bitcoin equals
5,882.94 United States Dollar
 

Uglytruth

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And I'll match your chart! LOL
1530316973665.png
 

savvydon

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I dunno, bitcoin’s chart looks a helluva lot uglier than gold at the moment, to me anyway. I don’t see a midterm bottom on bitcoin. For gold we have a nice bottom in place, for now, anyway. Could we see sub $1050? Sure we could, but I wouldn’t bet on it. That is below the all in mining cost for many miners, and oil ain’t gettin’ any cheaper...
 

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Investors pull $30 billion out of stocks in 2nd-largest weekly outflow on record: BAML

Current market carries echoes of 1998 Asia/LTCM crisis: analysts

As the second quarter neared its close, investors adjusted allocations, with a notable rotation out of equities and into safer assets such as government bonds or cash, according to flow data compiled by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Much of the repositioning was driven by changing environment: tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy, rising energy prices, geopolitical tensions and growing protectionist policies across the globe.

In the week ended on Wednesday, investors withdrew nearly $30 billion from global equity funds, which was the second largest weekly outflow on record, the BAML analysts said in a Friday note.

The biggest chunk of equity outflows came from U.S. equity funds, where investors withdrew $24.2 billion over the past week, the third largest outflow ever.

The retreat follows Washington’s move to impose tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports. US president Donald Trump has also threatened to add tariffs to a further $200 billion of Chinese imports if Beijing retaliates.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i...gest-weekly-outflow-on-record-baml-2018-06-29
 

FunnyMoney

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. Could we see sub $1050? Sure we could, but I wouldn’t bet on it. That is below the all in mining cost for many miners, and oil ain’t gettin’ any cheaper...
$1050 isn't happening. $1150 can only be reached if we see some major event like a market melt-down take place or if the Chinese devalue their currency by another 10%. Since they've already devalued by more than 5% since the tariff talks began, I doubt that happens.

Watch the price of gold in yuan, it has tracked the value of the Yuan for nearly 2 years now, and that sync up actually started to work its way into the picture at the $1050 bottom. China, unlike America, is still interest in protecting their middle class workers, at least for now. Do they want eventual slavery too? Yes they do. But right now, they still need a peaceful, complacent workforce. A generation or two further down the road is when that will change.
 

BarnacleBob

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After reading .....

The Cost of Civilization

https://beforethecollapse.com/2018/06/25/the-cost-of-civilization/

I began thinking about the decline in western lifespans & living standards pondering whether they are correlated with rising energy input costs, the decline in the marginal utility of debt & the decline of real profits in the current controlled & planned corporate economic system....

It seems that the decline in profits has forced food producers to use & utilize cheap, dangerous & unproven additives into the food supply lines, which could account for the turnaround & decline in lifespans... It seems everything is tied & reliant upon the flow of cheap energy products or the system begins to fail... ROI has been in a continuous decline since the 1960's, 'real' living standards have also been declining since then.

4ba6264e7f8b9aa8256a0400-1334-808.jpg
 
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Scorpio

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mixing metaphors

system isn't dependent on cheap oil, operates more efficiently with cheaper inputs

no different than a box of wheaties, wherein the cost of input goes down, results in greater profits all else equal.
Then you can argue input cost decreases can help absorb other increases such as labor, bldg, overhead.

to me, it is a function of fiat growth over time, and especially over the last 15 years worldwide.

that is the marginal utility of debt or output per unit of debt. As time goes on, volumes become greater in the aggregate thereby making it harder and harder to show a return on that debt.

investing 1,000 is relatively easy to expect x return, whatever x is. It gets exponetially greater the higher the number. Let's say 5% return on a grand, then 5% consistent on a mill, and what about 5% on a Trillion?

the nature of the beast You see it in fund managers all of the time. The larger they get, the harder it is for them to consistently achieve x. They get so large that they end up taking larger and larger positions, and sometimes getting trapped by their positions because they become the market for that issue.

which has bred the full industry of hiding the who and where, in a effort to prevent other players from seeing what is really going on.

we all can agree the massive amounts of fiat in existence leads to or can lead to dislocations and malinvestment.

to state cheap oil is driving the bus? Don't know about that, but I would say cheap inputs. Corp amerika doesn't care whether oil, corn, or labor. They are numbers based, and are only looking for cheaper inputs so there is more to skim off the top.
 

JayDubya

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http://danielamerman.com/va/ccc/YCinvert1.html

A Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator For Economic & Market Peril

By Daniel R. Amerman, CFA

Would you have appreciated a single number that could have given you a clear and unmistakable warning before the tech stock bubble collapsed? How about an unequivocal mathematical warning in 2006 that major financial trouble was on the way, well before the problems of 2007 and 2008?





These warnings did exist and they can be seen in the gold areas of the graph above. They are called "yield curve inversions", and are quite uncommon, having occurred only three times in the last 35 years. The red areas show the three recessions of the last 35 years - and as can be readily seen, each yield curve inversion has been relatively quickly followed by a recession.


After languishing in obscurity for many years, "yield curve inversions" are back in the news again, because we just may be nearing another inversion.


In this nine step analysis, we will review what yield curve inversions are, consider the potential for Fed rate increases leading to another inversion, explore the fundamentals of why inversions can be such an accurate early indicator of coming recessions, and look at the powerful information value for investors and investments.


This analysis is part of a series of related analyses, an overview of the rest of the series is linked here.

1. Definition

A yield curve is the relationship between interest rates and maturity at any point in time. The graph below shows the fairly normal yield curve just before the Federal Reserve began its cycle of increasing interest rates.





Interest rate yields are the vertical axis, the maturity of the bond or other fixed income asset is the horizontal axis, and the overwhelming majority of the time, long term interest rates are higher than short term interest rates. This means that the slope of the line is positive, rising as we go from left to right (only the 1, 2, 5 and 10 year yields are actual market yields, the rest are interpolated between them).


Investors take greater price and inflation risk with long term bonds than short term investments, and they almost always demand extra yield in compensation for the extra risk.


The graph below shows something far less common, which is an inverted yield curve. In this case it is from November of 2006, just over a year before the start of the Great Recession and the Financial Crisis of 2008.





Short term rates are higher than long term rates. The slope is now falling as we go from left to right, and this negative slope is referred to as an "inversion" in the yield curve.


Of course, there are an almost infinite number of possible shapes for yield curves and inverted yield curves. As a simplification measure, one commonly used market definition is to say that there is an inverted yield curve when the yield on 2 year U.S. Treasury notes exceeds the yield on 10 year U.S. Treasury bonds. Another commonly used measure is to compare the 3 month and 10 year yields, while others compare Fed Fund rates and 10 year yields.

2. History & Current Status

Every recession since 1975 - including the Financial Crisis of 2008 - has been preceded by an inverted yield curve (as defined by the 2 year Treasury having a higher yield than the 10 year Treasury).


The difference between the 2 year and 10 year Treasuries as of July 5, 2018 was 0.28%, which is the narrowest gap since August of 2007, shortly before the Financial Crisis.


In July of 2017 the average gap was 0.95%, which means the gap has narrowed by 0.67% in the last year. Should the relationship change by another 0.29%, we will have an "official" yield curve inversion. This could result from short term yields rising faster than long term yields, or long term yields falling faster than short term yields, or various combinations thereof.

3. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Increases

The Federal Reserve is currently in an increasing interest rate cycle as can be seen below, having raised interest rates by 1.75%% since 2015.





There is not a precise relationship between the Fed Funds rate, and 2 and 10 year Treasury yields. That said, the Federal Reserve's actions typically have a much more direct impact on short term rates than long term rates.


The Fed is expected to increase rates two more time in 2018, with each of those increases expected to be by 0.25%. If that happens, and if the relationship continues where the 2 year yield is more influenced than the 10 year yield, then the next Federal Reserve rate increase (the third of 2018) could narrow the yield curve gap to 0.04%. A fourth interest rate increase could invert the yield curve by 0.21%.


So all it potentially takes is the Fed following its publicly stated game plan of increasing rates by another 0.50% before the end of 2018, with that continuing to have a larger impact on short term than long term rates, and that could be enough to produce an inverted yield curve by the end of 2018.

4. Fundamentals & Causation

Perfect historical correlations (at least in modern times) are nice, but the existence of fundamental reasons for the correlation are even more convincing. And there indeed, fundamentals based reasons for why inverted yield curves should precede recession.


As a starting point, yield curve inversions generally occur when the Federal Reserve has been boosting interest rates. Because the interest rates that the Federal Reserve raises are short term, this tends to push the short term up relative to the long term, which is exactly what has been happening.


The reason the Fed is increasing rates is to slow down the economy. Now, If high economic growth is expected into the indefinite future, then the main danger for bond investors is inflation, and long term bond yields should be rising relative to short term yields.


However, if lower economic growth is expected, then less of a premium is required to compensate for inflationary expectations, and long term yields should be falling relative to short term yields.


So, the net effect of the Fed's increasing interest rates to slow down economic growth is to simultaneously increase short term rates while reducing long term yields relative to short term yields. This first produces flattening, and then sometimes - but not always - there is an eventual inverted yield curve.


This exact pattern was part of the last three inversions and recessions - and it is well under way right now.


Another key factor is the role that profit-seeking institutional investors play in changing the yield curve when their expectations for future economic growth change. If a slowdown in economic growth or a recession is expected, then professional investors know this will almost certainly be accompanied by the Federal Reserve decreasing interest rates.


Because bond prices move the opposite direction from bond yields, this will increase bond prices, and of particular importance is that this will then disproportionately increase long term bond prices relative to short term government obligation prices. It now becomes rational to demand higher yields for short term notes than long term bonds, as a reward for missing out on the expected capital gains in long term bonds.


It should be also be noted that a flattening and potentially inverting yield curve is an entirely rational investor response to fears of a trade war creating widespread economic damage. This is not separate from the Fed interest rate cycle, but can merge together and even become multiplicative.

5. When Conditions Aren't Normal

The inversion of yield curves prior to a recession was a normal part of the business cycle in the 20th century, and could be safely ignored by most retirement and other long term individual investors. Bond yields would get weird for a bit, there would be a recession, and then there would be a recovery with a return to economic growth that would produce more wealth than ever.


So the recommended strategy was to just buy and hold and don't worry about it, the passage of enough time and the corresponding economic growth would take care of the normal interim bumps in the road.


However, as explored in the analysis linked here, we have not been in the normal business cycle for going on twenty years. Instead, we have seen two asset bubbles (tech stocks and real estate) create particularly severe market losses when they popped, which were followed by ever more extraordinary Federal Reserve interventions.


There has been an A-B-C-D cycle where:


A) the Fed lowers interest rates in response to recession;


B) which does boost economic growth and even create asset bubbles;


C) which leads to a cycle of the Fed increasing interest rates (such as we are in right now); and


D) that then leads to the popping the asset bubbles with major investor damage and an even more severe recession.


As was reviewed in the linked analysis, the question was that given A, B and C had already happened or were currently occurring, would D be following again, with major market and economic damage?


It is also worth noting that the last interest rate inversion followed the Fed's last increasing interest rate cycle of 2004 to 2006, with those being followed by the Financial Crisis and the largest recession of modern times. The dates and sequence from the last time around are worthy of careful review:


1) The Federal Reserve rapidly increased interest rates between May of 2004 and July of 2006.


2) The yield curve first inverted in February of 2006, and was predominately inverted until May of 2007.


3) Concerned about a potential looming recession, the Fed went the other direction and began rapidly decreasing interest rates in August of 2007.


4) The "Great Recession" officially arrived in December of 2007.

6. Potential Yield Curve Inversion Reinforces The Likelihood Of The Cycle Recurring

A flattening yield curve which inverts (if that happens) does not guarantee a future recession and possible new financial crisis - but it greatly reinforces the chances that such an outcome will occur.


Yield curve inversions are not random, and they are not frequent. On the quite infrequent occasions when they do occur, they have historically had a very high predictive value when it comes to near term recession.


Accepting lower yields for longer term assets is not rational behavior for investors - unless they are convinced that a recession or slowdown in economic growth will lead to decreased interest rates. It is the market using its money to vote - and history shows that market has been very accurate when it comes to this particular kind of vote.


Again, the inversion has not yet occurred and there is no guarantee of outcome. But as a potential inversion nears, it is an independent but quite powerful reinforcement of the likelihood of the A-B-C-D cycle occurring again.

7. A Potential Deeper Crisis

Unfortunately, there are multiple reasons to believe that another recession could contribute to particularly severe market losses.


Among them is that the higher the height - the potentially greater the fall. As explored in the analysis linked here, historically low interest rates have contributed to historically high valuations in stocks, bonds and real estate. In the event of recession contributing to a market plunge or even new financial crisis, there could particularly devastating losses on a percentage basis in multiple asset categories.


There are also issues with the average age of the populations, as well as the far larger size of the national debt compared to 2008. Add in the rapidly escalating costs of paying for Social Security and Medicare promises, and the financial situation could be far worse than it was in 2009 or 2010.

8. The Containment Of Crisis Cycle

If there is another crisis, however, that does not mean that the world stops there. The key to previous A-B-C-D cycles has been that A has followed D each time. I find the graphic below to be useful for visualizing and exploring the relationships and possibilities.





(Red/Black matrix pdf link here.)


A pure "Red Zone" crisis could certainly be the path ahead, creating the red A column with likely dramatic results for each asset category.


But history also shows that if such a crisis occurs, the government and Federal Reserve will do everything they can to contain the crisis. The actions they take are likely to also change investment results and asset prices in each of the asset categories, creating the black B column in the matrix.


It is important to keep in mind that investment results over most of the last twenty or so years have not been based on the fairly brief Red Zone crises, but the far longer term Black Zone containment of crisis. And among the investment results have been some of the highest asset prices we have ever seen, in multiple asset categories.


That said, there is something unprecedented about this potential inversion, and it is among the reasons that a new Black Zone containment of crisis is likely to have a different impact than the previous ones.


We've never seen a yield curve inversion occur in the modern era with interest rates this low. So the principles are the same, but the specifics are different, and by itself, this divergence may be sufficient to lower the confidence level a bit.


The bigger issue is that the Fed has less room to lower rates than it has had each of the previous times. So its main tool is likely to be at the lowest level of effectiveness that it has been, coming into what could the biggest challenge in terms of market losses and recession.


One way of interpreting this situation is that the chances of the Fed failing to contain the crisis are higher than they have previously been, and that the odds of an out of control financial crisis are greater.


Another possibility is that the government and the Federal Reserve will have to put a record amount of effort (and potential rule changes) into the containment of crisis - which could lead to record movements in asset prices in some categories.

9. Inversions Are A Signal That A Change In The Cycle Is Coming

The best way to use a potential inversion in the yield curve is not as an infallible sign that a financial doomsday is nigh, but rather, as a fundamentally based indicator that an actionable change in the cycle will be upon us soon.


The basis for the yield curve inverting is the combination of cyclical Federal Reserve actions, and the institutional investors (who dominate the bond markets) voting with their money that they believe that a change in the cycle will indeed be occurring in the near future. In the endless cycle of recessions and expansions, they are changing how they value short versus long term interest rates, because of what they believe to be the oncoming cyclical change.


Every time we have seen an actual change in the cycle since 1975, every time that a recession has occurred - it has been preceded by the Fed acting as it right now, as well as this quite uncommon "vote".





Looking back over the last 35 years specifically, the gold "vote" was only taken three times (in three clusters), and the only three changes in the business cycle to recession happened relatively shortly thereafter. In the latter two cases, just following the single number of a negative yield spread would have indeed provided clear warning of a cycle change in what would become the two biggest market debacles of recent decades.


So if a yield curve inversion does occur in the coming months or years - it should be taken as a signal that there is a very good chance that a change in the cycle is not far away. Which means that at least one set of major asset price changes across all the investment categories is likely. And if that Red Zone is followed by a new Black Zone containment of crisis - there is likely to be another and quite different cycle of major price changes across the asset categories.


To have an early and highly reliable indicator of coming changes in the cycles of the markets and the economy would obviously be of immense value, and this is particularly so in this time of elevated asset prices even as tens of millions of Boomer investors near and enter retirement. The future is never certain and whether a 4th recession would follow a 4th inversion can't be know in advance. That said, the historical track record and fundamental theory behind this warning indicator are remarkable, and I hope that you have found this analysis to be helpful in better understanding yield curve inversions.
 

Scorpio

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I like it and it is fair,

Just depends if they want to do it before next potus elec or not.

Looks like inversion is followed 6 mos to a year later with market action,

Using his logic, if it inverts by end of year, it would fall into summer next or fall, and set up yet another black whatever in the fall.
 

BarnacleBob

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I like it and it is fair,

Just depends if they want to do it before next potus elec or not.

Looks like inversion is followed 6 mos to a year later with market action,

Using his logic, if it inverts by end of year, it would fall into summer next or fall, and set up yet another black whatever in the fall.
Took a road trip down to Fla earlly June for two weeks... there was road & bridge construction from Nashville Tenn. all the way to South Fla... Thats a lot of high powered credit & REAL infrastructure stimulus entering the financial & economic system thats going to require quite some time to bleed out... theres several years, maybe 5 or more of work started. Thats some real high powered political stimulus hitting mainstreet....!
 

Joe King

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I like it and it is fair,

Just depends if they want to do it before next potus elec or not.
My money's on "before".



Using his logic, if it inverts by end of year, it would fall into summer next or fall, and set up yet another black whatever in the fall.
Be just in time for the run-up to the next election. What a coincidence!
...and the dems would love to be able to label Trump as "Hoover 2.0" during the campaign.
 

Argent Dragon

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Took a road trip down to Fla earlly June for two weeks... there was road & bridge construction from Nashville Tenn. all the way to South Fla.....!
CONSTRUCTION going on everywhere here in N. TX........ lot's of road work & bridge repair, big cranes, you name it.

So add that in for continuing projects $$$$$
 

Scorpio

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One thing real interesting is there are now contractors letting me know they have gaps in their coming schedules, 2 in the last week have contacted me.

That speaks to something, either guys are not putting up with their jazz, or work is starting to slow overall.

Whereas others are telling me they are covered to the gills.
 

BarnacleBob

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Joe King

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The Boogie Man doesnt stand a chance Militarily against the U.S. in an all out war much less making war with NATO....
Not to mention that just on US submarines alone, there are enough warheads to bomb every city and town in Russia, four times.
 

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Central Asian country hoards gold as shield against trade war

https://www.thespec.com/news-story/...ntry-hoards-gold-as-shield-against-trade-war/

What do you do when your two biggest trading partners are embroiled in economic standoffs with the United States? You buy as much gold as you possibly can.

At least that's what Kyrgyzstan's central bank is doing in a bid to protect itself from currency volatility in China and Russia. The central Asian country hopes to grow the share of gold in its $2 billion US international reserves to 50 per cent, from around 16 per cent now.

"The rules of the game are changing," Kyrgyz central bank governor Tolkunbek Abdygulov, 42, said in an interview in the capital, Bishkek. "It doesn't matter what currencies we have in our reserves; dollars, yuan or rubles all make us vulnerable."

Kyrgyzstan is well placed to build up stockpiles, because the precious metal is its biggest export. Since 2014 the central bank has had a policy of buying up about as much of the country's gold as possible, Abdygulov said.

Kyrgyzstan's biggest mine, the Kumtor mine, is owned and operated by Canada's Centerra Gold, with production sold outside of the country. Total industrial output was $3.4 billion in 2017, according to central bank data.

Having watched the Kyrgyz currency slump to a record low in 2015 during Russia's currency crisis and standoff with the West, the mountainous country of six million people isn't risking its luck with a brewing trade war between the world's two biggest economies. Kyrgyzstan is heavily reliant on China and Russia for imports, and in particular on Moscow for remittances from the army of migrant workers who go there in search of work.

The policy has put Kyrgyzstan's gold holdings as a percentage of total reserves close to the level held by Russia, and above emerging-market economies such as India and Turkey, according to data from the World Gold Council. The U.S. and Germany have more than 70 per cent of their reserves in gold.

After surging during the past decade, bullion has been stuck in the doldrums for most of this year as the outlook for higher borrowing costs dimmed prospects for the metal, which doesn't pay interest. The commodity was trading near a six-month low at one point last week as the escalating standoff between the world's two biggest economies over trade tariffs strengthened the dollar.

The Kyrgyz central bank was one of the first of the post-Soviet republics to adopt its own currency, the som. The exchange rate was allowed to float freely in 1993, but the central bank still relies on interventions to prevent excessive volatility. The som has outperformed most regional peers in 2018, strengthening just over one per cent.

Abdygulov is aiming to switch to inflation targeting by the end of his seven-year term in 2024. Until then the best he can do is to grow, or at least preserve, the nation's international reserves.

"If we decide to sell gold, then we can easily sell it and convert into the currency we need," Abdygulov said. "Taking into consideration that we mine a lot of gold in our country, it's God-given that we should keep a large part of our reserves in gold."
 

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As we celebrate the 4th of July let's take a moment to reflect on the enormous cost, in lives and treasure, that it took us to earn our independence.

•8.37 years was how long the war lasted
•80,000 militia and Continental Army soldiers served at the height of the war
•56,000 British soldiers fought at the height of the war
•30,000 German mercenaries known as Hessians fought for Britain during the war
•55,000 Americans served as privateers during the war
•25,000 Revolutionary Soldiers died during the war
•8,000 Revolutionary Soldiers died from wounds inflicted during battle
•17,000 Revolutionary Soldiers died from disease during the war
•25,000 Revolutionary Soldiers were estimated to have been wounded or maimed
•1 in 20 able bodied white free males living in America died during the war
•24,000 British Soldiers were killed during the war
•100,000 Loyalist fled to Canada, the Bahamas and England during the war
•45% of colonists fully supported the war
•20% of colonists were outright loyal to Britain
•3 million is the estimated population of America in 1776
•1 million is the estimated population of London alone during the same period
•$8 is the monthly salary of a teenage drummer in the Continental Army
•5 feet is the length of a standard Continental Army Flintlock Musket
•10lbs is the weight of a standard Continental Army Flintlock Musket
•1oz is the the weight of a standard musket ball
•1,547 known military engagements occured during the Revolutionary War
•10 was the age of the youngest member of the Continental Army
•57 was the age of the oldest member of the Continental Army
•6.5% is the population participation rate during the war, higher than any American war since WWII
•$151 million was the total American cost of the war
•$600 was roughly how much the war cost each American in 1990 dollars
•$0 was the amount George Washington was paid for his military service
•26 original copies of the Declaration of Independence are known to exist

https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/the-revolutionary-war-by-the-numbers-1600199390
 

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One thing real interesting is there are now contractors letting me know they have gaps in their coming schedules, 2 in the last week have contacted me.

That speaks to something, either guys are not putting up with their jazz, or work is starting to slow overall.

Whereas others are telling me they are covered to the gills.
I personally know 5 business owners , diesel mechanics, tool/die company, plumbing biz , steel biz , home repair biz. All 5 of them are booked up for months in advance. Three of them recently asked me if I would be willing to work with them for good money, under the table, to help them catch up. I wasn't interested.
 

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The local ceramic tile installation company contracted with me in late May to replace my bathroom tub surround in late August or early September. Must be busy. Good.
 

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Hmmm...interesting. Maybe Trump is nationalizing the Fed. About the only time that I would like to see the government nationalize anything.
Looks like the change from .org to .gov took place in 2015 under the Obama administration... Gotta wonder whether the banking systems liabilities have been transferred onto the .govs balance sheet... Was Trump the salesman/actor installed to sell the transition to the domestic populace? Hmmm....
 

Thecrensh

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Looks like the change from .org to .gov took place in 2015 under the Obama administration... Gotta wonder whether the banking systems liabilities have been transferred onto the .govs balance sheet... Was Trump the salesman/actor installed to sell the transition to the domestic populace? Hmmm....
part of my theory put out before the election...that Trump may be TPTB's "guy" and they'll put all the blame for everything on him in order to bring about the progressive/marxist utopia in America.
 

Scorpio

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we talked of this awhile back, but it still is disheartening,

re us dollar up and metals down

considering all of the consternation in dc, along with the world politics being turned on its nose, sure seemed as though there would be support for metals

bitcoin has been getting a bid since it painted a 5 handle, and now over 8k

from a birds eye view, it seems as though the electronic currencies continue to peel demand off metals from a key segment or the spec market.

we all appreciate the relationship of usd to metals, yet the dollar really isn't that high relative to gold threatening to break the 1200 level

a bright note may be that we are nearing the seasonal lows, where metals bottom in mid summer, then start moving up into the fall.
 

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BarnacleBob

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BarnacleBob

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As the Stock Market Closes, Apple Is Officially the First Trillion-Dollar U.S. Company

http://fortune.com/2018/08/02/apple-trillion-dollar-stock-price/

Wow, just wow... the Fed & U.S. Treasury report there is $1.6 trillion in physical currency & coin in circulation... half of which circulates outside of the domestic U.S. economy... ahoy mates, there is an onshore shortage of dollars if Apple is valued @ $1 tt....
 

oldgaranddad

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As the Stock Market Closes, Apple Is Officially the First Trillion-Dollar U.S. Company

http://fortune.com/2018/08/02/apple-trillion-dollar-stock-price/

Wow, just wow... the Fed & U.S. Treasury report there is $1.6 trillion in physical currency & coin in circulation... half of which circulates outside of the domestic U.S. economy... ahoy mates, there is an onshore shortage of dollars if Apple is valued @ $1 tt....
I smell someone getting set up for a fall. The media loves to build up something only to turn on it and rip it down.
 

Scorpio

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I have a request to make,

all of the market pundits are wet with excitement about the 'Dow Industrials' being up again,

now let's be real here, there is nothing 'Industrial' about the dow any longer. It is fantasy land.

apple, disney, etc.

So we need to rename the dow to:

Fantasyland Stock Index
 

oldgaranddad

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I have a request to make,

all of the market pundits are wet with excitement about the 'Dow Industrials' being up again,

now let's be real here, there is nothing 'Industrial' about the dow any longer. It is fantasy land.

apple, disney, etc.

So we need to rename the dow to:

Fantasyland Stock Index
It needs to be called “The talking head fictional market index”
 

Cigarlover

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As the Stock Market Closes, Apple Is Officially the First Trillion-Dollar U.S. Company

http://fortune.com/2018/08/02/apple-trillion-dollar-stock-price/

Wow, just wow... the Fed & U.S. Treasury report there is $1.6 trillion in physical currency & coin in circulation... half of which circulates outside of the domestic U.S. economy... ahoy mates, there is an onshore shortage of dollars if Apple is valued @ $1 tt....
Be hard to imagine even 1 in 1000 paying actual cash for a 1000 phone. Most probably pulled out a card and charged it and used the digital currency.
 

Weatherman

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madhu

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https://failedevolution.blogspot.com/2018/08/the-us-empire-was-always-conducting.html

The video is 45 min long very good to watch
They talk about game theory. And how mathematically, individually and ?genetically we are here to get whatever we want! The mathematical theory that markets knows what is best was the first assumption. The markets were let out of the political control. Initially the divide between the rich and poor became drastic. At the same time politicians started cutting public social net. Net result is humans were programmed to work as machines. When they could not keep up mental problems such as anxiety, depression, obsessive compulsive disorder, social phobia etc became rampant. Then psychiatrists started booming with checklists and including everyone as having some disorder. Of course big pharma was right there to peddle SSRI Prozac to anyone and everyone who wanted to conform. True mathematicians accountants could not keep up with what market demanded. Fudging the numbers and cooking the books became a new art. And we all blame each other and every one else as to how we got here