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Scorpio

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was over at 321 yesterday, and there were a few different articles all toting the same theory,
that metals would rise when interest rates rose

and I thought, what a bunch of hooie,
interest rates have been rising for 2 yrs + now
when we took our shot from 07 to 11, interest rates were actually declining

back in the major lows, and the actual beginning, 2001 or so, interest rates were declining

this link gives you mort rates back to 1971

go have a look for yourself then make up your own mind about these hucksters and their articles of prognostication

http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.html
 

Unca Walt

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SCREW THE VERY THOUGHT OF METALS RISING.

That road ends in a fucking cliff.
 

BarnacleBob

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BarnacleBob

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Scorpio

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you remember that dicks announced not selling guns right after the fla shooting, and they took a hit,

now you have chinke using a washed up has been for a face of the company,

My question is, why?

These companies knew full well they would take major hits from these decisions,
it certainly isn't in the best interests of the company to excommunicate 1/2 of the consumers,
so what gives?

My theory is this:
Both companies are hiding some major bad stuff on the balance sheets,

This gives them cover for at least a few quarters to clean the books without oversight from the markets,
Wherein all will be blamed on these decisions,

Then after a appropriate time, they will start posting revenue and earnings growth as the comparables will be quite low

Question is, who is going to get us their dirty laundry that they are hiding?
 

Cigarlover

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Its a full court press against conservatives in the US.. All MSM, hollywood and now the corporations are betting on it as well.. They want the guns bad... A conservative SC would ensure their dreams of a utopia socialist society never come true in their lifetimes.

Do they really have to fudge the balance sheets when they are avoiding all taxes in the US and paying nothing for labor? Imagine if we outlawed sending our manufacturing to a communist nation and they had to make stuff here.. Ceos would be selling the mega yachts very quickly.
 

BarnacleBob

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you remember that dicks announced not selling guns right after the fla shooting, and they took a hit,

now you have chinke using a washed up has been for a face of the company,

My question is, why?

These companies knew full well they would take major hits from these decisions,
it certainly isn't in the best interests of the company to excommunicate 1/2 of the consumers,
so what gives?

My theory is this:
Both companies are hiding some major bad stuff on the balance sheets,

This gives them cover for at least a few quarters to clean the books without oversight from the markets,
Wherein all will be blamed on these decisions,

Then after a appropriate time, they will start posting revenue and earnings growth as the comparables will be quite low

Question is, who is going to get us their dirty laundry that they are hiding?
Exactly... Colin cancer is the perfect place to hide the nonvalue numbers that are on the balance sheet. His addition to NIKE creates a great diversion for the next 5 or 6 quarters as the balance sheet is readjusted. The readjustment will move stock prices lower, Kaepernick will be blamed for the decline, not the balance sheets water! If they were to get caught cooking the books, Wallstreet would penalize the stock price with a 60%, 70% maybe even a 90% haircut... Using Colin cancer, the stock prices will only decline 20 maybe 30%, possibly even much less....

Trumps international trade war & tax policies will be like an outgoing tide, exposing all of the wrecked corporate balance sheets... Indeed, the CEO's, CFO's & boards etc. have prolly been padding the balance sheets to steal millions in unearned compensation & bonus's... The day of reconing has arrived... Maybe thats why so many of the corporatists fear Trump may expose these balance sheet/stock scams from the insiders... ???
 

BarnacleBob

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Exactly... Colin cancer is the perfect place to hide the nonvalue numbers that are on the balance sheet. His addition to NIKE creates a great diversion for the next 5 or 6 quarters as the balance sheet is readjusted. The readjustment will move stock prices lower, Kaepernick will be blamed for the decline, not the balance sheets water! If they were to get caught cooking the books, Wallstreet would penalize the stock price with a 60%, 70% maybe even a 90% haircut... Using Colin cancer, the stock prices will only decline 20 maybe 30%, possibly even much less....

Trumps international trade war & tax policies will be like an outgoing tide, exposing all of the wrecked corporate balance sheets... Indeed, the CEO's, CFO's & boards etc. have prolly been padding the balance sheets to steal millions in unearned compensation & bonus's... The day of reconing has arrived... Maybe thats why so many of the corporatists fear Trump may expose these balance sheet/stock scams from the insiders... ???
Looks like Levi's is playing the game too... !!!

Levi Strauss teams up with gun control group: ‘We simply cannot stand by silently’

http://thehill.com/business-a-lobby...trol-group-we-simply-cannot-stand-by-silently
 

BarnacleBob

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you remember that dicks announced not selling guns right after the fla shooting, and they took a hit,

now you have chinke using a washed up has been for a face of the company,

My question is, why?

These companies knew full well they would take major hits from these decisions,
it certainly isn't in the best interests of the company to excommunicate 1/2 of the consumers,
so what gives?

My theory is this:
Both companies are hiding some major bad stuff on the balance sheets,

This gives them cover for at least a few quarters to clean the books without oversight from the markets,
Wherein all will be blamed on these decisions,

Then after a appropriate time, they will start posting revenue and earnings growth as the comparables will be quite low

Question is, who is going to get us their dirty laundry that they are hiding?
Here ya go, someone else is thinking along the same lines we are.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1037140679535800321.html
 

Scorpio

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a bit interesting this am,

as gold catches a bid while silver remains stagnant, and bitcoin gets hit back to low 6's

are the bitcoin bulls getting restless or is it just a temporary parking area for them, as they have been hanging in this trading range for quite some time now
 

BarnacleBob

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BarnacleBob

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JayDubya

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http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/09.18/next.html

The Next Stock Market Crash Won’t Take Gold Down With It
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony

The global financial crisis of 2008 was essentially caused by excessive leverage, a loss of confidence in real estate credit and a resulting sudden collapse of liquidity in the financial system. The central bank response was to lower interest rates and flood markets with liquidity. Since then, debt loads have increased more than 30% and the percentage of higher risk credit has also grown sharply. Many analysts believe that another crisis is possible due to a combination of enormous leverage and deteriorating credit standards. What will happen to gold if we have another financial crisis?

Not surprisingly, many investors think the next crisis will look like the last…all asset classes will fall in price including gold (although gold will fall less than the others). Gold will then rocket higher as central banks confront the crisis. That's what happened in 2008. We disagree. We see few if any parallels between today's gold market and the gold market in 2008. We do not expect gold to correct in the early stages of a new financial crisis; we see an almost immediate positive impact on the gold price from a crisis and central bank policy responses.

The 2008 Gold Market

Gold hit a new all-time high of $1030 in March, 2008, the culmination of a seven-year bull market. It is reasonable to assume that after seven years of gains with only one serious correction (in 2006), gold was over-owned and highly leveraged. When overall market liquidity began to collapse leading up to the Lehman bankruptcy on September 15, 2008, gold fell 30% to just below $700 by November of that year. Overall, a 30% correction following a 400% gain is not unreasonable, to clean out the excess leverage and remove speculative weak hands.

The significant role of speculation is proved by an examination of the gold basis data. The basis is the price of a futures contract less the spot price. From 2004 well into 2007, the gold basis was rising along with the price. This fact indicates that speculators were bidding up futures contracts on the CME, where, because of margin and liquidity, speculators go to play. Not surprisingly, CME Open Interest reached a new, all-time high just short of 600,000 contracts in early 2008, just before the gold price hit its new record high.




Margin calls in the second half of 2008 were, by all accounts, plentiful. As gold begins to fall, the basis also falls with it, indicating that liquidation in the futures market is driving the price. There are reports of margin calls in the futures market. Finally, as 2008 ends, gold moves towards backwardation for only the second time in modern history. The February '09 gold contract went into backwardation on December 12, 2008. Backwardation indicates a rising demand for physical metal as liquidity/default-conscious traders exchanged gold paper for the added security of the real thing.

Today's Gold Market

If a financial crisis were to unfold today, it would meet a very different gold market. First, gold has now been in a bear market for seven years, falling from a high in September, 2011 of $1921 to a low of $1045 in December of 2015, since recovering to about $1190 today. This downtrend has driven out the leveraged longs and reduced speculation to a minimum. It would be very difficult to argue that gold is over-owned. The Open Interest is nearly 130,000 contracts lower than the peak in 2008. Speculators are actually net short for the first time since 2001, the speculator gross short position has just hit an all-time high and commercials are net long for only the second time in nearly 20 years.

There is another angle to consider. The credit crunch of 2008/9 took months to be understood and counteracted by the central banks. Investors and banks alike had to learn how to act in response. The Federal Reserve ultimately figured out how to set up more than a dozen liquidity injection programs under a wide range of forgettable alphabet-soup names. Investors had to figure out where their money was safe and one of those solutions was physical gold, which led other markets out of the liquidity crisis and outpaced all other asset classes.

Next time around, it will not take central banks and market players any time at all to recognize and respond to a liquidity crisis. As central banks move to reliquify markets, dropping interest rates below zero and possibly eliminating cash withdrawals to keep liquidity in the banking system, we think investors will reach into an unleveraged but liquid physical gold market for protection against illiquidity and default.
 

JayDubya

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http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/09.18/buybacks.html

Stock Prices Are Surging Because Corporations Are Spending More Money On Stock Buybacks Than Anything Else
Michael Snyder

The primary reason why stock prices have been soaring in recent months is because corporations have been buying back their own stock at an unprecedented pace. In fact, the pace of stock buybacks is nearly double what it was at this time last year.

According to Goldman Sachs, S&P 500 companies spent 384 billion dollars buying back stock during the first half of 2018. That is an absolutely astounding number. And in many cases, corporations are going deep into debt in order to do this. Of course this is going to push up stock prices, but corporate America will not be able to inflate this bubble indefinitely. At some point a credit crunch will come, and the pace of stock buybacks will fall precipitously.

Prior to 1982, corporations were not permitted to go into the market and buy back stock.

The reason for this is obvious – stock buybacks are a really easy way for corporations to manipulate stock prices.

But these days it is expected that most large corporations will engage in this practice. Large stockholders love to see the price of the stock go up, and they are never going to complain when smaller shareholders are bought out and their share of the company is increased. And corporate executives love buybacks because so much of their compensation often involves stock options or bonuses related to key metrics such as earnings per share.

So in the end, stock buybacks are often all about greed. It is a way to funnel money to those at the very top of the pyramid, and those stock market gains are taxed at capital gains rates which are much lower than the rates on normal income.

Normally, you would expect successful companies to invest most of their available cash back into operations so that they can make even more money in the future. And for 19 of the past 20 years, corporations have spent more on capital investments than anything else. But now, share buybacks have actually surpassed capital spending. The following comes from CNN

But that doesn’t mean companies aren’t spending on job-creating investments, like new equipment, research projects and factories. Business spending is up 19% — it’s just that buybacks are growing much faster.
In fact, Goldman Sachs said that buybacks are garnering the largest share of cash spending by S&P 500 firms. It’s a milestone because capital spending had represented the single largest use of cash by corporations in 19 of the past 20 years.​

And this trend seems to be accelerating during the second half of 2018. It is being projected that firms will spend more than 600 billion dollars on stock buybacks during the second half of this year, and that will bring the grand total for 2018 to more than a trillion dollars

And the trend may not be done yet. Goldman Sachs predicted that share buyback authorizations among all US companies in all of 2018 will surpass $1 trillion for the first time ever.

Wow.

Wouldn’t it be nice if we had more than a trillion dollars that we could put toward reducing the national debt?

This is the reason why stocks hit another new all-time record high this week. Stock buybacks have reached absolutely insane levels, and what we are witnessing is essentially a giant orgy of greed.

To give you some perspective, the previous annual record for stock buybacks was just 589 billion dollars in 2007.

This year, we may come close to doubling the previous record.

And let us not forget that the year after 2007 was the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

So what corporations are the worst offenders? Here is more from CNN

Apple (AAPL) alone spent a whopping $45 billion on buybacks during the first half of 2018, triple what it did during the same time period last year, the firm said. That included a record-shattering sum during the first quarter.
Amgen (AMGN), Cisco (CSCO), AbbVie (ABBV) and Oracle (ORCL) have also showered investors with big boosts to their buyback programs.​

As I noted earlier, corporate insiders greatly benefit from stock buybacks, and they took advantage of massively inflated stock prices by selling off $10.3 billion worth of their shares during the month of August.

Inflating your stock price by cannibalizing your own shares is not a good long-term strategy for any corporation, but without a doubt it is making a lot of people very wealthy.

But in the process, the size of the stock market as a whole has been steadily shrinking. In fact, the number of shares on the S&P 500 has fallen by almost 8 percent since the beginning of 2011…

According to Ed Yardeni, the number of S&P 500 shares has shrunk by 7.7% since the start of 2011. This tends to increase the earnings per remaining share and the dividends available per remaining share.

This is yet another example that shows why the stock market has become completely disconnected from economic reality. Wall Street is inhabited by con men that are promoting Ponzi scheme after Ponzi scheme, and it is only a matter of time before the entire system collapses under its own weight.

But for now, the euphoria on Wall Street continues as stock prices continue to march higher. Meanwhile, we continue to get more signs of trouble from the real economy. For instance, this week we learned that the third largest bank in the entire country is going to lay off thousands of workers

Wells Fargo, the third-biggest U.S. bank, plans to lower its employee headcount by 5 percent to 10 percent in the next three years as part of its ongoing turnaround plan, the company announced Thursday.
The bank has 265,000 employees, meaning the reduction would result in a loss of between 13,250 and 26,500 jobs.​

Why would they do that if the economy was in good shape?

And globally, the emerging market currency crisis has continued to escalate. According to one source, more than 80 percent of all global currencies have fallen in value so far this year…

A review of the values of 143 global currencies indicates that so far this year, more than 80 percent have fallen in value.
Another eleven appear to be pegged to the dollar and 13 have risen in value. Of the 13 that have increased in value, only six are up more than 1 percent versus the dollar.
There have been outsized declines in countries like Venezuela (down 99 percent), Argentina (53 percent) and Turkey (38 percent). However, Brazil is down 20 percent, Russia 15 percent, India 11 percent, Sweden 10 percent, and the Philippines 8 percent. Big economies like China are experiencing a 5 percent currency value decline while the Euro is off by 3 percent.​

I applaud those that have made lots of money in the stock market, but the party will not last forever.

In 2007 corporations were pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into stock buybacks, and it propped up the market for a time.

But eventually the bubble burst and the crisis of 2008 was so dramatic that it will be remembered forever.

Now we are facing a similar scenario, and it is just a matter of time before this bubble bursts as well.
 

BarnacleBob

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"The way things are supposed to work is that we're supposed to know virtually everything about what they [the government] do: that's why they're called public servants. They're supposed to know virtually nothing about what we do: that's why we're called private individuals. Transparency is for those who carry out public duties and exercise public power. Privacy is for everyone else.” -- Glenn Greenwald
Great quote, but I don't think our political masters see it that way.
 

BarnacleBob

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Great quote, but I don't think our political masters see it that way.
The federal .gov was much more open & transparent before WWII... the Nippon "sneak attack" wasnt really a sneak attack as the code had been broken prior to 7 Dec. 1941... The real secretive deep state .gov arose with the cold war & when the Rosenburgs were found guilty of supplying nuke secrets to the USSR... The entire FAKE nuke weapon charade has been a bonanza & bonus for the statists, socialists, communists & MIC... Most of the secrecy in .gov couldnt have grown without the propaghandized threat of "Mutually Assured Destruction" (MAD) by sneak nuclear attack... Congress gave POTUS full time war & emergency powers (re: Senate Report 93-549), which of course is a permanent war footing that requires the utmost in secrecy... including secret treaties, secret military support, secret financial aid, secret economic aid, secret military invasions & bombing, etc., etc., etc... Powers which could not, would not & cannot exist within the framework of the Constitution 1787... A coup against transparent constitutional .gov ALL made possible by advertising fake nuclear weapons that supposedly split the atom (ad nauseaum)... JMO
 

BarnacleBob

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SEC charges Tesla CEO Elon Musk with fraud

*The SEC complaint alleges that Musk issued "false and misleading" statements and failed to properly notify regulators of material company events.

*Sources close to the company told CNBC the company was also expecting to be sued, though Tesla was not named as a defendant in the complaint.

*In August, Musk tweeted that he was considering taking Tesla private, adding, "Funding secured."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/27/tesla-falls-4percent-on-report-elon-musk-sued-by-sec.html
 

JayDubya

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Central bank gold buying hits highest in six years, Macquarie says
Sep. 27, 2018 11:22 AM ET|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

https://seekingalpha.com/news/33934...hest-six-years-macquarie-says?dr=1#email_link

Central banks have emerged as some of the biggest buyers of gold this year, buying a total of 264 metric tons this year to reach the highest level in six years, according to analysts at Macquarie.

“The only unambiguously positive sector for gold at the moment is central banks,” Macquarie says, as the price of gold has dropped 10% so far this year.

Poland added to its gold reserves last month, buying more than seven tons of gold, which followed its purchase of two tons in July, according to IMF data; gold buying has long been dominated by Russia, Turkey and Kazakhstan, and Poland's purchase, if confirmed, would be the first by a European Union member this century, according to Macquarie.

“Taken at face value it suggests gold’s appeal to central banks might be widening,” Macquarie said.
 

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69q4.jpg
 

Scorpio

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JD,

if that is true, then the retail buying levels of gold has to have cratered as price reflects,

while all eyes on poli yesterday, metals get hammered yet again,

even with a 4.2 GDP and all manner of positive econ indicators,

yet they state no inflation as of yet,

if there is no inflation, then why is the fed continuously raising rates, keeping the foot on the gas pedal to catch up?

what about $1T per year deficits?

what about wage gains?

etc.
 

BarnacleBob

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"It's amusing to watch the daily smarmy-talking-heads on Tout-TV (otherwise known as CNBS around this blog and here's looking at you, Cramer) shouting with joy as the markets make new highs on the bubble-infused schemes fueled by trillion dollar deficits that are returning less GDP expansion than the monetary expansion as a percentage of the economy. That is, said alleged "expansion" is factually false; the economy in real terms is contracting! This is basic math; if you expand the money supply by 5% ($1 trillion on a $20 trillion economy) and GDP expands by 3% then the actual result is a 2% contraction in economic output measured in the production of goods and services. Put in household terms that you can run up your credit card by an additional $2,000 when you have $40,000 of income does not make you $2,000 richer; you are in fact $2,000 poorer for doing so, plus the cost of interest! Never mind that if the current political situation continues the S&P 500 won't matter since it won't be trading anymore and all of those SJW-infused companies that make up the majority of its market cap will be laying in literal ashes. "What is Zero, Alex?"" -- Karl Denninget

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=234249
 

BarnacleBob

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"It's amusing to watch the daily smarmy-talking-heads on Tout-TV (otherwise known as CNBS around this blog and here's looking at you, Cramer) shouting with joy as the markets make new highs on the bubble-infused schemes fueled by trillion dollar deficits that are returning less GDP expansion than the monetary expansion as a percentage of the economy. That is, said alleged "expansion" is factually false; the economy in real terms is contracting! This is basic math; if you expand the money supply by 5% ($1 trillion on a $20 trillion economy) and GDP expands by 3% then the actual result is a 2% contraction in economic output measured in the production of goods and services. Put in household terms that you can run up your credit card by an additional $2,000 when you have $40,000 of income does not make you $2,000 richer; you are in fact $2,000 poorer for doing so, plus the cost of interest! Never mind that if the current political situation continues the S&P 500 won't matter since it won't be trading anymore and all of those SJW-infused companies that make up the majority of its market cap will be laying in literal ashes. "What is Zero, Alex?"" -- Karl Denninget

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=234249
 

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Tesla’s Elon Musk settles with SEC, paying $20 million fine and resigning as board chairman


Renae Merle

37 mins ago





© Chris Carlson/AP FILE- In this Sept. 17, 2018, file photo SpaceX founder and chief executive Elon Musk speaks after announcing Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa as the first private passenger on a trip around the moon in Hawthorne, Calif. U.S. securities regulators have filed a complaint against Musk alleging that he made false and misleading statements about plans to take the company private in August. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson, File)
Tesla chief executive Elon Musk agreed on Saturday to pay a $20 million fine and step down as board chairman as part of a settlement with the Securities & Commission that he misled investors about his plans to take the company private.


Tesla will separately pay another $20 million and agreed to add two new independent directors to its board. Under the settlement, Musk will resign as chairman of the automaker within 45 days and be barred from that position for three years.
Subscribe to the Post Most newsletter: Today’s most popular stories on The Washington Post
The deal marks a quick resolution to a potentially devastating case for Musk. The SEC sued him on Thursday alleging he lied when he tweeted this summer that he had secured funding to take Tesla private. The agency saw his dismissal as Tesla CEO and sent Tesla’s stock plummeting.
Musk had stunned global financial markets on Aug. 7 when he issued tweets saying he had the “funding secured” to take his automaker private. But federal securities regulators say his statement was deceptive because the deal was in its infancy and sued.
“The total package of remedies and relief announced today are specifically designed to address the misconduct at issue by strengthening Tesla’s corporate governance and oversight to protect investors,” Stephanie Avakian, co-director of the SEC’s Enforcement Division, said in a statement.
 

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Lampert just continues to tear the once noble retailer Sears Roebuck Co. apart piece by piece by piece. This vulture is now aiming to steal the Kenmore Brand...

Sears is now a penny stock
By Chris Isidore September 28, 2018

Sears stock has fallen into the bargain bin.
In the latest indignity for a once-grand retailer, the share price fell below $1 on Friday for the first time in the company's history, dropping as much as 15% to 85 cents in midday trading.
Falling into loose-change territory is more than embarrassing. Nasdaq, the exchange where Sears stock trades, could delist the company. That's a long process and would happen next year at the earliest.

Shares of Sears Holdings (SHLD) had already plunged 88% in the past year. They took another blow Monday, when CEO and primary shareholder Eddie Lampert warned the board that the company was running out of time and cash. He said Sears must restructure and cut its debt "without delay."
Lampert pointed to a $134 million debt payment due on October 15, and said the company must demonstrate to lenders by Monday that it has required levels of cash in reserve, which could itself prove difficult.
Sears' market value has fallen to less than $100 million. Lampert recently offered to buy the Kenmore appliance line through his hedge fund for $400 million, suggesting that the Kenmore brand on its own is worth more than four times as much as the whole company.​

http://money.cnn.com/2018/09/28/news...ock/index.html
 

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"Despite the role of derivatives in the 2008 collapse and despite the promises of both Presidents Obama and Trump to rein in the excesses of Wall Street, the Federal regulator of national banks, the OCC, has archived reports showing that derivative exposures have actually increased on Wall Street since 2008. As of June 30 of this year, that figure had not only not diminished but it had grown by 32 percent to a stunning $256.7 trillion." -- Pam and Russ Martens
 

Scorpio

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show me the proof...............

all these numbers people speak to, and not a one of them accurate,

they all seem to be wild ass guesses,

but, if you look at it realistically, $1T per year US just in deficits for 14 yrs.............$14T, then add worldwide excess capital creation, and the numbers get large in a hurry, but how much more?
 

BarnacleBob

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