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Scorpio

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was in talking with a banker today, he mentioned long term rates flatlining,

stated yes I saw that, and that typically is not a positive thing,

he then stated, yes that can mean that the market is worried about something on the horizon

we spoke of rising rates, and he mentioned over the past week how it had come down 20 pts. Not a big drop, but it was in the face of rising rates. I stated that will be rectified quite readily if the fed follows thru and raises again in dec.

curious though, I stated the rate I was getting was still solid as heck,
he came back with, it is quite different than a year ago in the 4's
and his assistant came back with, 'historically compared it is a good rate'

point to that is, it seems as though they are under the impression that the addiction to the lower rates is all too real (reading between the lines here), and that if rates continue to rise, things will seize up



-------

BB and I were discussing the shortage of dollars and how the dollar index continues its rise, now over 97

this will put pressure on oil as we have seen,

then we got to talking about how most have it confused, therein our budgets deficits were to go flat or to even surplus, that it would cause even larger problems as a dollar shortage becomes even more acute,

a discussion we have had here before and currently, is if the us deficits are actually a way of inserting dollars into the world economy

that the whole deficit discussion is but a mirage,

note that the dollar has been rising even though potus and his girlfriends cannot stem the flow of red ink in washington. So maybe they aren't supposed to?

Such as that whole thing about the increased military budget, or is that just code for insert more dollars into the world economy?
 

Cigarlover

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again or prior?

not yet, but yes prior

----------
Yea i just saw where Trump tweeted something about the 11.2 billion bailout they got from taxpayers. We the sheep are just supposed to keep funding this sheet. Millions closing in on retirement and broke because the Gov took a cut of everything they did their entire lives. That cut would have funded their retirement, instead it's funding over bloated federal employee pensions and paychecks.
Someday it will come down to we the people versus the federal Gov.
 

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Yea i just saw where Trump tweeted something about the 11.2 billion bailout they got from taxpayers. We the sheep are just supposed to keep funding this sheet. Millions closing in on retirement and broke because the Gov took a cut of everything they did their entire lives. That cut would have funded their retirement, instead it's funding over bloated federal employee pensions and paychecks.
Someday it will come down to we the people versus the federal Gov.
 

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https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2018/10/10/gm-board-jami-miscik/1588301002/

She certainly has an interesting background. CFR, Morgan Stanley, Lehman brothers before they went bankrupt, Kissenger associates and now GM.
The article is from Oct of this year. Hardly enough time for her to go in and destroy the entire company one month later. Honestly though GM should have shut it's doors years ago. Another 11 billion in taxpayer dollars down the tubes. I guess thats only about 100 bucks for every taxpayer though.
 

madhu

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The Dow and Nasdaq had a great run today. Bear market rally or another bull market? Short covering rally? Was waiting for the market to go down some more before buying. But as usual day late and dollar short. May be with the algo trading and computer frenzy there is never going to be any capitulation. Unlike GM and Main Street where money dries out, the Wall Street party never pauses. Well I also don't want a repetition of 2008 money printing circus and bailing out everything. I guess there are no easy choices except to keep printing slowly, so no one will object to ever raising costs.
 

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https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2018/10/10/gm-board-jami-miscik/1588301002/

She certainly has an interesting background. CFR, Morgan Stanley, Lehman brothers before they went bankrupt, Kissenger associates and now GM.
The article is from Oct of this year. Hardly enough time for her to go in and destroy the entire company one month later. Honestly though GM should have shut it's doors years ago. Another 11 billion in taxpayer dollars down the tubes. I guess thats only about 100 bucks for every taxpayer though.
The way I see it, GM/Delco has a standing put, as they produce many engines & transmissions (drivetrains) used in U.S. & NATO vehicles. They also produce other military electronic components & hardware etc. used in military & .gov applications. Like it or not, GM & U.S. .gov are attached at the hip, at least for now anyway. Before GM can be allowed to completely crash, the military must quickly & heavily transition away from the various products GM supply's.... JMO
 

madhu

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The way I see it, GM/Delco has a standing put, as they produce many engines & transmissions (drivetrains) used in U.S. & NATO vehicles. They also produce other military electronic components & hardware etc. used in military & .gov applications. Like it or not, GM & U.S. .gov are attached at the hip, at least for now anyway. Before GM can be allowed to completely crash, the military must quickly & heavily transition away from the various products GM supply's.... JMO
Don't you think a Tesla like innovation ( actually a tax payer subsidy for frivolous ideas ) be funded to see if any of these can run the next energy less vehicles? There are so many short sellers on the Tesla boards who have been repeatedly duped by vested interests. I am again reminded of hypertiger 'S food powered make work enterprise. Yes better to kick the can down the road with little more accounting gimmicks.
 

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When the bailed out GM & stuck the bond holders I thought it was rigged.......
Just imagine if you were Ford & hoping your competitor finally tripped & it would be to your advantage..........
 

itsamess

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When the bailed out GM & stuck the bond holders I thought it was rigged.......
Just imagine if you were Ford & hoping your competitor finally tripped & it would be to your advantage..........
The old GM stock holders who lost it all from one of the classic dividend paying stocks were real happy as well. New stock issued, not for you. Let this thing die already.
 

madhu

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When the bailed out GM & stuck the bond holders I thought it was rigged.......
Just imagine if you were Ford & hoping your competitor finally tripped & it would be to your advantage..........
No just not GM alone, how about AIG insurance giant that had to be bailed out so there were no more Lehman events? You are correct it sets up a bad example of risk takers at government aka tax payers expense. This scenario is being played all over the world.



Buy titanium instead of buying gold at least we can have titanium implants for broken bones!

If only we know all the companies that TPTB are going to bail out, I would invest my retirement money in those stocks. It is rigged and I had a friend who told me that GM was going to become bankrupt in 2003. I just laughed her off. She explained to me about corporate debt and roll over of corporate debt. I just could not believe what she said that they had debt till their eyeballs. Unfortunately she believed in what she said and used to broadly short sell the market heavily. That did not end well.
 

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Cigarlover

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BarnacleBob

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after the g20

gold up 10 and silver up 27

grains catching a bid with beans on the move

oil up over $2 as we look now

stocks up big

Now its going to get very interesting... OPTION A: The DJIA is either printing a double bottom & the markets are going to rally hard, a.k.a. a bear trap or; OPTION B: The DJIA is set up to print a triple top break-down, a.k.a. a bull trap.... Personally I think the bears are about to get slaughtered & placed in hybernation for a time. NIA, I am no invested in the paper markets, DYODD

sc.png
 

madhu

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Shorts on Tesoro ( TSRO) got killed today when smithkline Glaxo bought it up for 5 billion dollars. The next trick for Wall Street is M and A activity. Don't know where the market goes, but I suspect it's being engineered higher to get the suckers in. I am hearing 50,000 Dow to 100,000 Dow. And may be the dollar value to slowly erode even more.
 

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I'm still waiting on 28k Dow then minor correction before moving to 32k followed by a major fibbo correction ... this has been my long term projection & forecast going back to 2014. We'll see!
 

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Get Woke, Go Broke? DICK'S Sporting Goods Warns Investors That Decision To Get Rid Of Guns Cost Company Dearly

Dick's Sporting Goods is warning investors that its decision to remove certain "assault-style" weapons from its Field & Stream stores cost it dearly and may limit its future gains.

The sporting goods retailer was forced to confront angry shareholders late last week after its stocks tanked more than 4.5% and financial conglomerate J.P. Morgan Chase downgraded Dick's shares, from "overweight" to "neutral."

"Gross margin-driven upside appears less probable given 3Q's performance, changing comparisons, and rising inventory levels," an analyst for J.P. Morgan told CNBC. The same analyst noted that same-store sales for Dick's outlets are expected to grow less than 1% even as the company's inventory rises.

That's right, maybe others will learn a lesson from this, lol

https://www.dailywire.com/news/38935/dicks-sporting-goods-warns-investors-our-decision-emily-zanotti
 

Silver Art

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Dow fell nearly 800 points (down 799.36 points). S&P 500 fell 90 points (S&P 500 currently at 2700). Something about the the 200 moving average being broken today among the "technical damage" that was done to the stock market today according to the MSM talking heads.

Gas prices (in my area of TN anyway) are under $2/gallon.
 

Silver Art

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Ooooooooooh boy!!!! Here we go again.........................

DOW futures....................Down 441.07 points.
 

Silver Art

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The question now remains is if this "death" of bitcoin will be final death of bitcoin (i.e. will not rally back).

FWIW: The Forbes article mentions "technical indicators" for this most recent ongoing "death" of bitcoin:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billyb...ows-after-wild-swings-heres-why/#6a028b2377f4

One part of the article stated that the "mean" for bitcoin is $1500. Sooooo...............A reversion to the mean????? Perhaps. I do not know. We will see.

ALSO FWIW: everything is going down as of late except.......................gold.
 

BarnacleBob

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1 Bitcoin equals
3,343.00 United States Dollar

I'm thinking generously that the mean is around $900 - $1100... it very well could collapse back to $450 - $500...
 

Silver Art

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1 Bitcoin equals
3,343.00 United States Dollar

I'm thinking generously that the mean is around $900 - $1100... it very well could collapse back to $450 - $500...

Yeah I saw that price quote too. I guess I got used to looking at coinmarketcap.com for my quotes. Most people and several articles seem to use coinmarketcap.com as a source. Old habits never die with me and coinmarketcap.com. LOL!!!!

EDIT: Either way it does not look good for bitcoin in this most recent "death spiral". I lost count with how many times bitcoin has "died". Is this the final "death" of bitcoin? Who really knows. The degenerate speculator in me wants to jump in but my safe place of the "sidelines" still feels warm and comfortable to me still. Vachcing and vaiting..........
 

Silver Art

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BarnacleBob

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Yeah I saw that price quote too. I guess I got used to looking at coinmarketcap.com for my quotes. Most people and several articles seem to use coinmarketcap.com as a source. Old habits never die with me and coinmarketcap.com. LOL!!!!

EDIT: Either way it does not look good for bitcoin in this most recent "death spiral". I lost count with how many times bitcoin has "died". Is this the final "death" of bitcoin? Who really knows. The degenerate speculator in me wants to jump in but my safe place of the "sidelines" still feels warm and comfortable to me still. Vachcing and vaiting..........
I been watching it since its $20k high & market cap @ around $515 bb, which has subsequently collapsed to about $107 bb tonight. I dont think BTC will be dead, unless the sovereigns rein in regulations & taxes on it its use & wallet transfers.

I can see the market cap crash to $20 - $50 bb before the pain ends & stabilization begins. I also think it will prolly languish trading sideways & range bound for a decade or so... until the current pain is forgotten. I talked to a lot of older investors that got burned in the gold bull run of 1980 to the $850 high which crashed back to $450 toz. Most of them refused to ever look at or consider investing in AU or AG ever again at any price. And this was their opinion two decades plus later. Same thing will prolly happen to BTC.... The current crop of BTC specs & believers have been severely ravaged. I suspect a major capitulation will occur somewhere around $2500. Its gonna take a long while to lick these wounds and admit error.

https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
 

madhu

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Just wondering if the algorithm are all taking one side of the trade and this might lead to the next black swan event? Even though The Dow recovered, it seems like many of the stocks were trading lower. Heard the oil stocks have 250 billion dollar of corporate debt that has to be rolled over.
 

BarnacleBob

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Just wondering if the algorithm are all taking one side of the trade and this might lead to the next black swan event? Even though The Dow recovered, it seems like many of the stocks were trading lower. Heard the oil stocks have 250 billion dollar of corporate debt that has to be rolled over.
Back in the late nineties & early 2000's three or four times a week there would be tremendous volume & point swings of two, three even five hundred plus points in the afternoons. This was the algo's and shorts battling it out, each attempting to gain control over the market. Thus far we havent observed any of these styles of market swings & short covering activities. They are suspiciously missing in action these days. Everything appears suspiciously plastic & controlled.... the shorts are constantly getting their heads handed to them most of the time.
 

Scorpio

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Here is the sp500, daily and weekly,

Bouncing off trading range support for the time being,

Those high low swings are getting more pronounced since Oct, Is this a case of ptb stepping in to keep the fantasy alive?

The last quarter had good earnings, but what does the future look like?
Is ok growth good enough, or is it far short of what the market is demanding?

Bond rates have quietly settled down, and rates are not continuing their march north.



1.png


2.png
 

Scorpio

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here is a print of the 10 yr treasury notes, those lows you see are higher rates, and the spike up on the right side is lower rates.
This is note price, the inverse of yield

3.png


This one is for the actual 'rates' of 30 year, which many mortgages are approximate to

4.png
 

BarnacleBob

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Remember when! I remember in 1966 a Corvette on the Chevy dealers showroom floor for $4000.00...

FB_IMG_1544318648340.jpg
 

BarnacleBob

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Theres more to the trade war & sanctions than meets the eye!

China Auto Sales Plunge, Face First Annual Decline in 30 Years

New-vehicle sales in China plunged 13.9% in November, compared to a year ago, to 2.55 million units, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) announced today. This was the fifth month in a row of year-over-year drops, and the steepest year-over-year drop since January 2012, which had been caused by the timing of the lunar new year. November brought sales for the first 11 months to 25.4 million new vehicles, a drop of 1.7% from a year ago.

December is historically the strongest month of the year, and the November plunge bodes ill for December. CAAM, which is backed by the Chinese government, has been ratcheting down its forecasts for year-total sales, to keep up with reality. On Tuesday, given the plunge in November, it lowered its sales forecast for 2018 to a drop of 3%.

In this economy, sales simply could not slow because they weren’t allowed to. And the industry grew up in this steep-growth-forever environment. But now, sales have dropped year-over-year for the past five months – at an ever-sharper rate:

July: -4.00%
August: -3.8%
September: -11.6%
October: -11.7%
November: -13.9%

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/12/11/china-auto-sales-plunge-face-first-annual-decline-in-30-years/
 

JayDubya

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From Simon Black

It’s official: the Federal Reserve is insolvent

December 14, 2018
Sovereign Valley Farm, Chile

In the year 1157, the Republic of Venice was in the midst of war and in desperate need of funds.

It wasn’t the first time in history that a government needed to borrow money to fight a war. But the Venetians came up with an innovative idea:

Every citizen who loaned money to the government was to receive an official paper certificate guaranteeing that the state would make interest payments.

Those certificates could then be transferred to other people… and the government would make payments to whoever held the certificate at the time.

In this way, the loan that an investor made to the government essentially became an asset-- one that he could sell to another investor in the future.

This was the first real government bond. And the idea ultimately created a robust market of investors who would buy and sell these securities.

When a government’s fortunes changed and its ability to make interest payments was in doubt, the price of the bond fell. When confidence was high, bond prices rose.

It’s not much different today. Governments still borrow money by issuing bonds, and those bonds trade in a robust marketplace where countless investors buy and sell on a daily basis.

Just like the price of Apple shares, the prices of government bonds rise and fall all the time.

One of the most important factors affecting bond prices is interest rates: when interest rates rise, bond prices fall. And when rates fall, bond prices rise.

And this law of bond prices and interest rates moving opposite to one another is as inviolable as the Laws of Gravity.

Back in the 12th century when Venice started issuing the first government bonds, interest rates were shockingly high by modern standards, fluctuating between 12% and 20%. In France and England rates would sometimes rise beyond even 80% during the Middle Ages.

Needless to say, it didn’t take long for banks to get in on the action; they realized very quickly that by controlling government debt, they effectively controlled the government.

The dominance of the banks over the government cannot be overstated.

Miriam Beard’s book History of the Businessman, for example, describes medieval politicians in the Italian city-state of Genoa as having to pledge loyalty to the banks before they were allowed to take office.

Thus began the deep, long-standing relationship between banks and the government:

Banks buy government debt-- helping to finance spending packages that keep them in power.

And the government bails out the banks when they get into trouble.

You scratch my back, I scratch yours.

All along the way, of course, they both use other people’s money. YOUR money. Governments bail out the banks with taxpayer funds. Banks fund the government with their depositors’ hard-earned savings.

Of course, it’s so absurd now that they’ve simply resorted to creating money out of thin air to benefit the both of them… which is precisely what central banks do.

A decade ago during the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks around the world created trillions of dollars, euros, yen, etc. worth of currency and effectively gave it all away to their respective governments and commercial banks.

In the Land of the Free, the US Federal Reserve conjured $4 trillion out of nothing and “loaned” most of it to the federal government at record low interest rates.

But here’s the weird part: if you remember that inviolable law of bond prices-- when interest rates go up, bond prices fall.

And that’s exactly what’s been happening.

The Fed bought trillions of dollars worth of government bonds at a time when interest rates were at historic lows.

Then, starting about two years ago, the Fed began slowly raising interest rates.

But each time the Fed raised rates, the value of the government bonds that they had purchased would fall.

This seems insane, right? By raising rates, the Fed was creating massive losses for itself.

I’ve written frequently that, as the Fed continues raising interest rates, it will eventually engineer its insolvency.

Well, that’s now happened.

Yesterday the Fed released its latest quarterly financial statements, showing that the value of their bonds is now $66.5 billion LESS than what they paid.

And that $66.5 billion unrealized loss is far greater than Fed’s razor-thin $39 billion in capital.

This means that, on a mark-to-market basis, the largest and most systemically important financial institution in the world is objectively insolvent.

(It’s also noteworthy that the Fed’s financial statements show a NET LOSS of $2.4 billion for the first nine months of 2018.)

This is all truly remarkable… and highlights how utterly absurd the financial system is.

Our society has awarded an unelected committee the ability to conjure trillions of dollars out of thin air and render itself insolvent to support the ongoing, mutual back-scratching of governments and banks, all at your expense.

But what’s even more remarkable, though, is how little anyone has noticed.

You’d think the front page on every financial newspaper would be “FED INSOLVENT.”

But it’s not. No one seems to notice that the Fed is insolvent. Or, for that matter, that most Western governments are insolvent.

It’s crazy. It’s as if it doesn’t matter that the government of the largest economy in the world loses a trillion dollars a year, has $22 trillion in debt, $30+ trillion in unfunded pension liabilities, or suffers a debt-to-GDP ratio in excess of 100%.

Or that the central bank of the largest economy in the world is insolvent on a mark-to-market basis according to its own financial statements.

There seems to be an expectation that none of this matters and it will continue to be rainbows and buttercups forever and ever until the end of time despite some of the most compelling evidence to the contrary.

It’s difficult to imagine a consequence-free future with data like this.

Peaks, corrections, crises, etc. are often preceded by similar dismissive, willful ignorance and irrational optimism.

It would be foolish to presume that this time is any different.

To your freedom,



Simon Black,
 

madhu

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Mark to market fantasy and depreciation of tax loss scams are just figments of imagination as the price of bond itself. It's all paper money that was generated by a key stroke on a computer and the general public gets to pay the price of ever increasing inflation. And finally when the people had enough, the yellow vest anger movement is chanelled to an imaginary un winnable enemy.
The fed will be in demand as long as the greater fool theory exists and suckers are born every minute to uphold the lie. Futile choice
 

BarnacleBob

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From Simon Black

It’s official: the Federal Reserve is insolvent

December 14, 2018
Sovereign Valley Farm, Chile

In the year 1157, the Republic of Venice was in the midst of war and in desperate need of funds.

It wasn’t the first time in history that a government needed to borrow money to fight a war. But the Venetians came up with an innovative idea:

Every citizen who loaned money to the government was to receive an official paper certificate guaranteeing that the state would make interest payments.

Those certificates could then be transferred to other people… and the government would make payments to whoever held the certificate at the time.

In this way, the loan that an investor made to the government essentially became an asset-- one that he could sell to another investor in the future.

This was the first real government bond. And the idea ultimately created a robust market of investors who would buy and sell these securities.

When a government’s fortunes changed and its ability to make interest payments was in doubt, the price of the bond fell. When confidence was high, bond prices rose.

It’s not much different today. Governments still borrow money by issuing bonds, and those bonds trade in a robust marketplace where countless investors buy and sell on a daily basis.

Just like the price of Apple shares, the prices of government bonds rise and fall all the time.

One of the most important factors affecting bond prices is interest rates: when interest rates rise, bond prices fall. And when rates fall, bond prices rise.

And this law of bond prices and interest rates moving opposite to one another is as inviolable as the Laws of Gravity.

Back in the 12th century when Venice started issuing the first government bonds, interest rates were shockingly high by modern standards, fluctuating between 12% and 20%. In France and England rates would sometimes rise beyond even 80% during the Middle Ages.

Needless to say, it didn’t take long for banks to get in on the action; they realized very quickly that by controlling government debt, they effectively controlled the government.

The dominance of the banks over the government cannot be overstated.

Miriam Beard’s book History of the Businessman, for example, describes medieval politicians in the Italian city-state of Genoa as having to pledge loyalty to the banks before they were allowed to take office.

Thus began the deep, long-standing relationship between banks and the government:

Banks buy government debt-- helping to finance spending packages that keep them in power.

And the government bails out the banks when they get into trouble.

You scratch my back, I scratch yours.

All along the way, of course, they both use other people’s money. YOUR money. Governments bail out the banks with taxpayer funds. Banks fund the government with their depositors’ hard-earned savings.

Of course, it’s so absurd now that they’ve simply resorted to creating money out of thin air to benefit the both of them… which is precisely what central banks do.

A decade ago during the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks around the world created trillions of dollars, euros, yen, etc. worth of currency and effectively gave it all away to their respective governments and commercial banks.

In the Land of the Free, the US Federal Reserve conjured $4 trillion out of nothing and “loaned” most of it to the federal government at record low interest rates.

But here’s the weird part: if you remember that inviolable law of bond prices-- when interest rates go up, bond prices fall.

And that’s exactly what’s been happening.

The Fed bought trillions of dollars worth of government bonds at a time when interest rates were at historic lows.

Then, starting about two years ago, the Fed began slowly raising interest rates.

But each time the Fed raised rates, the value of the government bonds that they had purchased would fall.

This seems insane, right? By raising rates, the Fed was creating massive losses for itself.

I’ve written frequently that, as the Fed continues raising interest rates, it will eventually engineer its insolvency.

Well, that’s now happened.

Yesterday the Fed released its latest quarterly financial statements, showing that the value of their bonds is now $66.5 billion LESS than what they paid.

And that $66.5 billion unrealized loss is far greater than Fed’s razor-thin $39 billion in capital.

This means that, on a mark-to-market basis, the largest and most systemically important financial institution in the world is objectively insolvent.

(It’s also noteworthy that the Fed’s financial statements show a NET LOSS of $2.4 billion for the first nine months of 2018.)

This is all truly remarkable… and highlights how utterly absurd the financial system is.

Our society has awarded an unelected committee the ability to conjure trillions of dollars out of thin air and render itself insolvent to support the ongoing, mutual back-scratching of governments and banks, all at your expense.

But what’s even more remarkable, though, is how little anyone has noticed.

You’d think the front page on every financial newspaper would be “FED INSOLVENT.”

But it’s not. No one seems to notice that the Fed is insolvent. Or, for that matter, that most Western governments are insolvent.

It’s crazy. It’s as if it doesn’t matter that the government of the largest economy in the world loses a trillion dollars a year, has $22 trillion in debt, $30+ trillion in unfunded pension liabilities, or suffers a debt-to-GDP ratio in excess of 100%.

Or that the central bank of the largest economy in the world is insolvent on a mark-to-market basis according to its own financial statements.

There seems to be an expectation that none of this matters and it will continue to be rainbows and buttercups forever and ever until the end of time despite some of the most compelling evidence to the contrary.

It’s difficult to imagine a consequence-free future with data like this.

Peaks, corrections, crises, etc. are often preceded by similar dismissive, willful ignorance and irrational optimism.

It would be foolish to presume that this time is any different.

To your freedom,



Simon Black,
Scorp & I have been discussing this quite frequently, namely the numbers just dont equate. We are evidently missing some very crucial & important data, sadly we are prevented from possessing the true financial condition of USA, INC.. Demand for US Bonds by sophisticated investors seems to indicate that the true financial condition isnt nearly as stressed as it would seem.... Same can be said of the Fed, an institution that has never been fully audited. The Fed is just a quasi .gov administration agency for the entire U.S. banking industry known as the Federal Reserve System, which is a systemic institutionalized domestic & global financial Co-Op. The only way the Fed can be insolvent is if/when the entire Federal Reserve System is insolvent, and today it is far from insolvency.

"And that $66.5 billion unrealized loss is far greater than Fed’s razor-thin $39 billion in capital."

Systemically ^ this is chump change when looking at the big picture! And thats why there is no concern over this temporary condition. Furthermore, CB's dont operate using the same metrics & standards as commercial banks. They are "special" banks where most of the rules dont apply... JMO