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madhu

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you are not missing anything. Even without the additional data (cooking the books) the discussion on this board is able to come to reasonable conclusion. One can be pessimistic or optimistic given the same set of data unless there is overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
Carl posted about cashless utopia and when that is fully achieved the fed becomes more of a nuisance than an asset. At that point the true data will be widely publicized just like the GE problem. 20 years ago no one would have suspected GE accounting problems.
Yes as long as the govt bails out the TBTF and fed is a quasi govt cartel, the usual rules and economics don't apply. Till then the inflation in one asset is greater than deflation in another bubble liability is the game in town.
 

Scorpio

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poor simon, still spouting nonsense

how can you be insolvent when you do not mark to market?

ie you can carry stuff on your books at whatever fantasy number you want.

we went thru this quite completely during the last collapse,

the conclusion became clear, stuff was taken in to clear the books of the narethewells, never to be seen or heard from again,

complete rubbish paper was made whole by 'pretending' or 'manufacturing' the illusion that it was still good

washes the books on the corp side, and hides the damage on the .gov side,

interesting enough, where there is no reconciliation. There are no balance sheets with assets and liabilities. Only cash flow statements. How many people now have called for a audit of the fed, only to be sent packing? A long list of them. There are gremlins in them there hills of fiat.

so simon, please keep up will ya
 

Uglytruth

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Derivatives!

Well that & they make the game. How do you run out of paper?
 

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Scorpio

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Anyone been watching the oil drubbing?

I wondered when it was coming after the US went large on production,
They say the only thing that held it up temporarily was the sanctions on iran along with the continued decrease in Vene

Now there is talk that the russians are helping Vene figure out the oil thing

Lot of action at 50 as it tried to hold, but once that was taken, the blood bath was on

1.png
 

Scorpio

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how about natty?

remember how someone was sitting on a pile of 'sold' call options and got caught when the market jumped?
market fell off that spike when warmer weather settled in everywhere.

how would you like to be that option seller and look at the chart now, after that spike blew you up?

anyway, they say there is more cold heading on in, so prices may seek higher levels again anyway

2.png
 

madhu

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how about natty?

remember how someone was sitting on a pile of 'sold' call options and got caught when the market jumped?
market fell off that spike when warmer weather settled in everywhere.

how would you like to be that option seller and look at the chart now, after that spike blew you up?

anyway, they say there is more cold heading on in, so prices may seek higher levels again anyway

View attachment 119461
This is big sharks taking out little sharks. Case in point. OKTA, CLOUD COMPANY IS BURNING MONEY AND IT RAN CONSISTENTLY EVERY DAY FROM 48$. Shorted it at 56. But every day it was going up in a straight line. I shorted more all the way to 66. It then started spiking more. Could not take the heat and covered it at 10 grand loss. 2 days later it is down at 61. So I was correct that it was way overvalued.. However timing is everything.
In this volatile market only pros with algo trading can afford to play this intense and rapid moves that almost seems unreal.
There are no markets and it's just financial engineering with rearranging of the financial pecking order
 

madhu

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Makes a lot of sense... Trump the international business & real estate tycoon is completely reliant upon credit & debt financing to keep & maintain his biz empire.... ergo he is completely controllable by international financiers that he relies upon to finance & refinance his various business & real estate activities. Never forget that! JMO
But if he is really dependant on the international financiers for his credit and debit financing, is he self sacrificing and championing for the little guy working on main street? Or is he another snake oil seller to gullible public. Will the globalists derail everything that he does for his nation? It must be a no win situation. I was traveling via NYC And the uber driver tells me that there is a demonstration in front of trump towers every day. I have to agree that no other president has ever been subjected to this kind of scrutiny and prejudice before
 

Scorpio

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the dollar being hit this am even after a increase in rates,

that my friends, does not make a lick of sense when compared to others such as the zero or yen



QT to continue — Fed plans to keep winding down the balance sheet at same rate

By Steve Goldstein

Published: Dec 19, 2018 3:58 p.m. ET


Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during his news conference after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
One takeaway from the Federal Reserve’s decision and press conference on Wednesday is that the central bank will continue its so-called quantitative tightening policy.

The Fed said it would keep reducing its balance sheet by up to $50 billion per month. And Chairman Powell said that policy would continue.

Since beginning the shrinking process in October 2017, the Fed has trimmed its portfolio of Treasury- and mortgage-backed securities by around $365 billion to $4.14 trillion.

“We thought carefully about how to normalize policy and came to the view that we would effectively have the balance sheet run off on automatic pilot and use monetary policy, rate policy to adjust to incoming data. I think that has been a good decision,” he said.

“I think that the runoff of the balance sheet has been smooth and has served its purpose and I don’t see us changing that. And I do think that we will continue to use monetary policy, which is to say rate policy as the active tool of monetary policy.”


There had been some expectations from leading Wall Street firms that the Fed will slow down its policy of reducing the balance sheet. Economists at Morgan Stanley forecast the Fed’s balance sheet will stop shrinking in September, with the balance sheet stabilizing around $3.8 trillion.

The Powell comment at the press conference coincided with an intraday move lower for U.S. stocks DJIA, -1.49% .

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/q...eep-winding-down-the-balance-sheet-2018-12-19
 

Silver Art

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DOW down 347 points as I type this thread. Looks more likely that stocks will enter a Scorpio (a.k.a. Bear) market by year end.

EDIT: Nasdaq currently entered bear market territory today according to CNBC talking heads. DOW and S&P 500 to follow in bear market territory soon in my opinion.
 

Silver Art

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DOW is now down 631 points.
 

BarnacleBob

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DB @ $8.00 a share & $40 tt in derivatives! What could go wrong?

sc.png
 

Silver Art

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With about 15 minutes left in the trading day today................

DOW down 367 points

Nasdaq down about 200 points

S&P 500 down 49 points

Yep just another down day in the Wall St neighborhood............YAWN!!!!

Carry on
 

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Silver Art

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Merry Bah Humbug............................

DOW down 342 points

Nasdaq down 77 points

S&P 500 down 37 points
 

Silver Art

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A short trading just ended at 1:00 PM EST:

DOW down 653.17 points

Nasdaq down 140.08 points

S&P 500 down 65.50 points

VIX = 35.76

I guess the PPT was furloughed in this latest Fed gov't shutdown. The DOW and S&P 500 have the worst Christmas Eve trading day ever. S&P 500 has entered bear market territory. The bear is licking its chops. It is feasting time.

BAH HUMBUG!!!!!!
 

madhu

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Anyone been watching the oil drubbing?

I wondered when it was coming after the US went large on production,
They say the only thing that held it up temporarily was the sanctions on iran along with the continued decrease in Vene

Now there is talk that the russians are helping Vene figure out the oil thing

Lot of action at 50 as it tried to hold, but once that was taken, the blood bath was on

View attachment 119460
Another down day for oil. Now if 42 is taken out wonder where the next support levels are. Huge moves on oil and usdx.
BP at 52 weeks low. Schlumberger is being shorted. May be another 20% down? Not financial advise.

The Dow and Nasdaq may go down another 20%? Markets are irrational and pessimism is rife with the longs throwing in the towel. No markets, no relief rally, the shorts have been taken out. Now it's the longs turn to be taken to the woodshed. JMO
 

Silver Art

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The Dow and Nasdaq may go down another 20%? Markets are irrational and pessimism is rife with the longs throwing in the towel. No markets, no relief rally, the shorts have been taken out. Now it's the longs turn to be taken to the woodshed. JMO
As long as we have a trade dispute with China (and other countries), rising interest rates and uncertainty with US gov't policies then the markets will continue to go down. Throw in the possibility of an economic recession, then it would not surprise me to see another 20% in the stock market.
 

Silver Art

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DOW futures up about 94 points. Probably going to be more selling today. Sellers have been having a field day with stocks so far.
 

Silver Art

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DOW now up only about 22 points.
 

Silver Art

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End of trading day 12-26-2018:

DOW up 1086.25 points (up 4.98%)

Nasdaq up 361.44 points (up ~5.84%)

S&P 500 up 116.64 points (up 4.96%)

The DOW broke a record for the largest 1-day up-move. Also the 1st time ever for a 1000+ point up move in the DOW.
 

madhu

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Dow up 1086 points. Awesome. But does it mean anything? not convinced that it is bull market again. Everyday the market is looking for some government assistance, dole for the market to go up. If the government takes the punch bowl everyone is whining and crying loud.
But at least the market reversed its decline even with oil selling off everyday. If the oil goes up then it breaks the rise of the Dow as oil is a tax on growth. Cannot trust anything anymore even good companies.
 

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madhu

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Love this volatility. Go along with the markets. If this market goes down for a couple of days, then I am going long because I am expecting the PPT to kick in and start buying key indices. The only concern that I have is if PPT fails to get the desired results, then we are in new territory. Not investment advice. Cannot trust these markets. Even if I am long I am closing all positions at the end of the day

Heard that 21 trillion was printed to get us out of the 2008 depression.
 

madhu

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Ung going down every day. It's probably way oversold.
BMY went down on huge volume. Going to observe
DYODD
Not investment advise
 

TAEZZAR

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natty is reacting to global warming weather

this time of year we should be about 10-20 degrees, instead, today we hit high 30's to 40
Not here, 32 high, 21 low. That is about normal for this part of Orygun.
2 days ago, weather report indicated dry for the next week. Today the report is for rain & then snow on Sat.
Weather is about as predictable as woman. Ooooops, can I say that ? :secret:
 

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Scorpio

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Been putting up some threads, many guys predicting the stock run is over for now,
that there is much more to come,

guys with street cred like A Hamilton

we mentioned this possibility prior to the mids on gim, that if they really wanted to get tramp, a combined concerted effort to attack the markets worldwide could do that.

knowing that asia, zeroland, and here at home all had big enemies with large war chests,

so it is a battle for control with the nexis being the us of friggin' a

regardless, here you can see the most recent action in the sp 500 as tramp calls in support

1.png
 

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