• Same story, different day...........year ie more of the same fiat floods the world
  • There are no markets
  • "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

BarnacleBob

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Yeah I saw that price quote too. I guess I got used to looking at coinmarketcap.com for my quotes. Most people and several articles seem to use coinmarketcap.com as a source. Old habits never die with me and coinmarketcap.com. LOL!!!!

EDIT: Either way it does not look good for bitcoin in this most recent "death spiral". I lost count with how many times bitcoin has "died". Is this the final "death" of bitcoin? Who really knows. The degenerate speculator in me wants to jump in but my safe place of the "sidelines" still feels warm and comfortable to me still. Vachcing and vaiting..........
I been watching it since its $20k high & market cap @ around $515 bb, which has subsequently collapsed to about $107 bb tonight. I dont think BTC will be dead, unless the sovereigns rein in regulations & taxes on it its use & wallet transfers.

I can see the market cap crash to $20 - $50 bb before the pain ends & stabilization begins. I also think it will prolly languish trading sideways & range bound for a decade or so... until the current pain is forgotten. I talked to a lot of older investors that got burned in the gold bull run of 1980 to the $850 high which crashed back to $450 toz. Most of them refused to ever look at or consider investing in AU or AG ever again at any price. And this was their opinion two decades plus later. Same thing will prolly happen to BTC.... The current crop of BTC specs & believers have been severely ravaged. I suspect a major capitulation will occur somewhere around $2500. Its gonna take a long while to lick these wounds and admit error.

https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
 

madhu

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Just wondering if the algorithm are all taking one side of the trade and this might lead to the next black swan event? Even though The Dow recovered, it seems like many of the stocks were trading lower. Heard the oil stocks have 250 billion dollar of corporate debt that has to be rolled over.
 

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Just wondering if the algorithm are all taking one side of the trade and this might lead to the next black swan event? Even though The Dow recovered, it seems like many of the stocks were trading lower. Heard the oil stocks have 250 billion dollar of corporate debt that has to be rolled over.
Back in the late nineties & early 2000's three or four times a week there would be tremendous volume & point swings of two, three even five hundred plus points in the afternoons. This was the algo's and shorts battling it out, each attempting to gain control over the market. Thus far we havent observed any of these styles of market swings & short covering activities. They are suspiciously missing in action these days. Everything appears suspiciously plastic & controlled.... the shorts are constantly getting their heads handed to them most of the time.
 

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Here is the sp500, daily and weekly,

Bouncing off trading range support for the time being,

Those high low swings are getting more pronounced since Oct, Is this a case of ptb stepping in to keep the fantasy alive?

The last quarter had good earnings, but what does the future look like?
Is ok growth good enough, or is it far short of what the market is demanding?

Bond rates have quietly settled down, and rates are not continuing their march north.



1.png


2.png
 

Scorpio

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here is a print of the 10 yr treasury notes, those lows you see are higher rates, and the spike up on the right side is lower rates.
This is note price, the inverse of yield

3.png


This one is for the actual 'rates' of 30 year, which many mortgages are approximate to

4.png
 

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Remember when! I remember in 1966 a Corvette on the Chevy dealers showroom floor for $4000.00...

FB_IMG_1544318648340.jpg
 

BarnacleBob

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Theres more to the trade war & sanctions than meets the eye!

China Auto Sales Plunge, Face First Annual Decline in 30 Years

New-vehicle sales in China plunged 13.9% in November, compared to a year ago, to 2.55 million units, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) announced today. This was the fifth month in a row of year-over-year drops, and the steepest year-over-year drop since January 2012, which had been caused by the timing of the lunar new year. November brought sales for the first 11 months to 25.4 million new vehicles, a drop of 1.7% from a year ago.

December is historically the strongest month of the year, and the November plunge bodes ill for December. CAAM, which is backed by the Chinese government, has been ratcheting down its forecasts for year-total sales, to keep up with reality. On Tuesday, given the plunge in November, it lowered its sales forecast for 2018 to a drop of 3%.

In this economy, sales simply could not slow because they weren’t allowed to. And the industry grew up in this steep-growth-forever environment. But now, sales have dropped year-over-year for the past five months – at an ever-sharper rate:

July: -4.00%
August: -3.8%
September: -11.6%
October: -11.7%
November: -13.9%

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/12/11/china-auto-sales-plunge-face-first-annual-decline-in-30-years/
 

JayDubya

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From Simon Black

It’s official: the Federal Reserve is insolvent

December 14, 2018
Sovereign Valley Farm, Chile

In the year 1157, the Republic of Venice was in the midst of war and in desperate need of funds.

It wasn’t the first time in history that a government needed to borrow money to fight a war. But the Venetians came up with an innovative idea:

Every citizen who loaned money to the government was to receive an official paper certificate guaranteeing that the state would make interest payments.

Those certificates could then be transferred to other people… and the government would make payments to whoever held the certificate at the time.

In this way, the loan that an investor made to the government essentially became an asset-- one that he could sell to another investor in the future.

This was the first real government bond. And the idea ultimately created a robust market of investors who would buy and sell these securities.

When a government’s fortunes changed and its ability to make interest payments was in doubt, the price of the bond fell. When confidence was high, bond prices rose.

It’s not much different today. Governments still borrow money by issuing bonds, and those bonds trade in a robust marketplace where countless investors buy and sell on a daily basis.

Just like the price of Apple shares, the prices of government bonds rise and fall all the time.

One of the most important factors affecting bond prices is interest rates: when interest rates rise, bond prices fall. And when rates fall, bond prices rise.

And this law of bond prices and interest rates moving opposite to one another is as inviolable as the Laws of Gravity.

Back in the 12th century when Venice started issuing the first government bonds, interest rates were shockingly high by modern standards, fluctuating between 12% and 20%. In France and England rates would sometimes rise beyond even 80% during the Middle Ages.

Needless to say, it didn’t take long for banks to get in on the action; they realized very quickly that by controlling government debt, they effectively controlled the government.

The dominance of the banks over the government cannot be overstated.

Miriam Beard’s book History of the Businessman, for example, describes medieval politicians in the Italian city-state of Genoa as having to pledge loyalty to the banks before they were allowed to take office.

Thus began the deep, long-standing relationship between banks and the government:

Banks buy government debt-- helping to finance spending packages that keep them in power.

And the government bails out the banks when they get into trouble.

You scratch my back, I scratch yours.

All along the way, of course, they both use other people’s money. YOUR money. Governments bail out the banks with taxpayer funds. Banks fund the government with their depositors’ hard-earned savings.

Of course, it’s so absurd now that they’ve simply resorted to creating money out of thin air to benefit the both of them… which is precisely what central banks do.

A decade ago during the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks around the world created trillions of dollars, euros, yen, etc. worth of currency and effectively gave it all away to their respective governments and commercial banks.

In the Land of the Free, the US Federal Reserve conjured $4 trillion out of nothing and “loaned” most of it to the federal government at record low interest rates.

But here’s the weird part: if you remember that inviolable law of bond prices-- when interest rates go up, bond prices fall.

And that’s exactly what’s been happening.

The Fed bought trillions of dollars worth of government bonds at a time when interest rates were at historic lows.

Then, starting about two years ago, the Fed began slowly raising interest rates.

But each time the Fed raised rates, the value of the government bonds that they had purchased would fall.

This seems insane, right? By raising rates, the Fed was creating massive losses for itself.

I’ve written frequently that, as the Fed continues raising interest rates, it will eventually engineer its insolvency.

Well, that’s now happened.

Yesterday the Fed released its latest quarterly financial statements, showing that the value of their bonds is now $66.5 billion LESS than what they paid.

And that $66.5 billion unrealized loss is far greater than Fed’s razor-thin $39 billion in capital.

This means that, on a mark-to-market basis, the largest and most systemically important financial institution in the world is objectively insolvent.

(It’s also noteworthy that the Fed’s financial statements show a NET LOSS of $2.4 billion for the first nine months of 2018.)

This is all truly remarkable… and highlights how utterly absurd the financial system is.

Our society has awarded an unelected committee the ability to conjure trillions of dollars out of thin air and render itself insolvent to support the ongoing, mutual back-scratching of governments and banks, all at your expense.

But what’s even more remarkable, though, is how little anyone has noticed.

You’d think the front page on every financial newspaper would be “FED INSOLVENT.”

But it’s not. No one seems to notice that the Fed is insolvent. Or, for that matter, that most Western governments are insolvent.

It’s crazy. It’s as if it doesn’t matter that the government of the largest economy in the world loses a trillion dollars a year, has $22 trillion in debt, $30+ trillion in unfunded pension liabilities, or suffers a debt-to-GDP ratio in excess of 100%.

Or that the central bank of the largest economy in the world is insolvent on a mark-to-market basis according to its own financial statements.

There seems to be an expectation that none of this matters and it will continue to be rainbows and buttercups forever and ever until the end of time despite some of the most compelling evidence to the contrary.

It’s difficult to imagine a consequence-free future with data like this.

Peaks, corrections, crises, etc. are often preceded by similar dismissive, willful ignorance and irrational optimism.

It would be foolish to presume that this time is any different.

To your freedom,



Simon Black,
 

madhu

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Mark to market fantasy and depreciation of tax loss scams are just figments of imagination as the price of bond itself. It's all paper money that was generated by a key stroke on a computer and the general public gets to pay the price of ever increasing inflation. And finally when the people had enough, the yellow vest anger movement is chanelled to an imaginary un winnable enemy.
The fed will be in demand as long as the greater fool theory exists and suckers are born every minute to uphold the lie. Futile choice
 

BarnacleBob

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From Simon Black

It’s official: the Federal Reserve is insolvent

December 14, 2018
Sovereign Valley Farm, Chile

In the year 1157, the Republic of Venice was in the midst of war and in desperate need of funds.

It wasn’t the first time in history that a government needed to borrow money to fight a war. But the Venetians came up with an innovative idea:

Every citizen who loaned money to the government was to receive an official paper certificate guaranteeing that the state would make interest payments.

Those certificates could then be transferred to other people… and the government would make payments to whoever held the certificate at the time.

In this way, the loan that an investor made to the government essentially became an asset-- one that he could sell to another investor in the future.

This was the first real government bond. And the idea ultimately created a robust market of investors who would buy and sell these securities.

When a government’s fortunes changed and its ability to make interest payments was in doubt, the price of the bond fell. When confidence was high, bond prices rose.

It’s not much different today. Governments still borrow money by issuing bonds, and those bonds trade in a robust marketplace where countless investors buy and sell on a daily basis.

Just like the price of Apple shares, the prices of government bonds rise and fall all the time.

One of the most important factors affecting bond prices is interest rates: when interest rates rise, bond prices fall. And when rates fall, bond prices rise.

And this law of bond prices and interest rates moving opposite to one another is as inviolable as the Laws of Gravity.

Back in the 12th century when Venice started issuing the first government bonds, interest rates were shockingly high by modern standards, fluctuating between 12% and 20%. In France and England rates would sometimes rise beyond even 80% during the Middle Ages.

Needless to say, it didn’t take long for banks to get in on the action; they realized very quickly that by controlling government debt, they effectively controlled the government.

The dominance of the banks over the government cannot be overstated.

Miriam Beard’s book History of the Businessman, for example, describes medieval politicians in the Italian city-state of Genoa as having to pledge loyalty to the banks before they were allowed to take office.

Thus began the deep, long-standing relationship between banks and the government:

Banks buy government debt-- helping to finance spending packages that keep them in power.

And the government bails out the banks when they get into trouble.

You scratch my back, I scratch yours.

All along the way, of course, they both use other people’s money. YOUR money. Governments bail out the banks with taxpayer funds. Banks fund the government with their depositors’ hard-earned savings.

Of course, it’s so absurd now that they’ve simply resorted to creating money out of thin air to benefit the both of them… which is precisely what central banks do.

A decade ago during the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks around the world created trillions of dollars, euros, yen, etc. worth of currency and effectively gave it all away to their respective governments and commercial banks.

In the Land of the Free, the US Federal Reserve conjured $4 trillion out of nothing and “loaned” most of it to the federal government at record low interest rates.

But here’s the weird part: if you remember that inviolable law of bond prices-- when interest rates go up, bond prices fall.

And that’s exactly what’s been happening.

The Fed bought trillions of dollars worth of government bonds at a time when interest rates were at historic lows.

Then, starting about two years ago, the Fed began slowly raising interest rates.

But each time the Fed raised rates, the value of the government bonds that they had purchased would fall.

This seems insane, right? By raising rates, the Fed was creating massive losses for itself.

I’ve written frequently that, as the Fed continues raising interest rates, it will eventually engineer its insolvency.

Well, that’s now happened.

Yesterday the Fed released its latest quarterly financial statements, showing that the value of their bonds is now $66.5 billion LESS than what they paid.

And that $66.5 billion unrealized loss is far greater than Fed’s razor-thin $39 billion in capital.

This means that, on a mark-to-market basis, the largest and most systemically important financial institution in the world is objectively insolvent.

(It’s also noteworthy that the Fed’s financial statements show a NET LOSS of $2.4 billion for the first nine months of 2018.)

This is all truly remarkable… and highlights how utterly absurd the financial system is.

Our society has awarded an unelected committee the ability to conjure trillions of dollars out of thin air and render itself insolvent to support the ongoing, mutual back-scratching of governments and banks, all at your expense.

But what’s even more remarkable, though, is how little anyone has noticed.

You’d think the front page on every financial newspaper would be “FED INSOLVENT.”

But it’s not. No one seems to notice that the Fed is insolvent. Or, for that matter, that most Western governments are insolvent.

It’s crazy. It’s as if it doesn’t matter that the government of the largest economy in the world loses a trillion dollars a year, has $22 trillion in debt, $30+ trillion in unfunded pension liabilities, or suffers a debt-to-GDP ratio in excess of 100%.

Or that the central bank of the largest economy in the world is insolvent on a mark-to-market basis according to its own financial statements.

There seems to be an expectation that none of this matters and it will continue to be rainbows and buttercups forever and ever until the end of time despite some of the most compelling evidence to the contrary.

It’s difficult to imagine a consequence-free future with data like this.

Peaks, corrections, crises, etc. are often preceded by similar dismissive, willful ignorance and irrational optimism.

It would be foolish to presume that this time is any different.

To your freedom,



Simon Black,
Scorp & I have been discussing this quite frequently, namely the numbers just dont equate. We are evidently missing some very crucial & important data, sadly we are prevented from possessing the true financial condition of USA, INC.. Demand for US Bonds by sophisticated investors seems to indicate that the true financial condition isnt nearly as stressed as it would seem.... Same can be said of the Fed, an institution that has never been fully audited. The Fed is just a quasi .gov administration agency for the entire U.S. banking industry known as the Federal Reserve System, which is a systemic institutionalized domestic & global financial Co-Op. The only way the Fed can be insolvent is if/when the entire Federal Reserve System is insolvent, and today it is far from insolvency.

"And that $66.5 billion unrealized loss is far greater than Fed’s razor-thin $39 billion in capital."

Systemically ^ this is chump change when looking at the big picture! And thats why there is no concern over this temporary condition. Furthermore, CB's dont operate using the same metrics & standards as commercial banks. They are "special" banks where most of the rules dont apply... JMO
 

madhu

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you are not missing anything. Even without the additional data (cooking the books) the discussion on this board is able to come to reasonable conclusion. One can be pessimistic or optimistic given the same set of data unless there is overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
Carl posted about cashless utopia and when that is fully achieved the fed becomes more of a nuisance than an asset. At that point the true data will be widely publicized just like the GE problem. 20 years ago no one would have suspected GE accounting problems.
Yes as long as the govt bails out the TBTF and fed is a quasi govt cartel, the usual rules and economics don't apply. Till then the inflation in one asset is greater than deflation in another bubble liability is the game in town.
 

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poor simon, still spouting nonsense

how can you be insolvent when you do not mark to market?

ie you can carry stuff on your books at whatever fantasy number you want.

we went thru this quite completely during the last collapse,

the conclusion became clear, stuff was taken in to clear the books of the narethewells, never to be seen or heard from again,

complete rubbish paper was made whole by 'pretending' or 'manufacturing' the illusion that it was still good

washes the books on the corp side, and hides the damage on the .gov side,

interesting enough, where there is no reconciliation. There are no balance sheets with assets and liabilities. Only cash flow statements. How many people now have called for a audit of the fed, only to be sent packing? A long list of them. There are gremlins in them there hills of fiat.

so simon, please keep up will ya
 

Uglytruth

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Derivatives!

Well that & they make the game. How do you run out of paper?
 

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Scorpio

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Anyone been watching the oil drubbing?

I wondered when it was coming after the US went large on production,
They say the only thing that held it up temporarily was the sanctions on iran along with the continued decrease in Vene

Now there is talk that the russians are helping Vene figure out the oil thing

Lot of action at 50 as it tried to hold, but once that was taken, the blood bath was on

1.png
 

Scorpio

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how about natty?

remember how someone was sitting on a pile of 'sold' call options and got caught when the market jumped?
market fell off that spike when warmer weather settled in everywhere.

how would you like to be that option seller and look at the chart now, after that spike blew you up?

anyway, they say there is more cold heading on in, so prices may seek higher levels again anyway

2.png
 

madhu

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how about natty?

remember how someone was sitting on a pile of 'sold' call options and got caught when the market jumped?
market fell off that spike when warmer weather settled in everywhere.

how would you like to be that option seller and look at the chart now, after that spike blew you up?

anyway, they say there is more cold heading on in, so prices may seek higher levels again anyway

View attachment 119461
This is big sharks taking out little sharks. Case in point. OKTA, CLOUD COMPANY IS BURNING MONEY AND IT RAN CONSISTENTLY EVERY DAY FROM 48$. Shorted it at 56. But every day it was going up in a straight line. I shorted more all the way to 66. It then started spiking more. Could not take the heat and covered it at 10 grand loss. 2 days later it is down at 61. So I was correct that it was way overvalued.. However timing is everything.
In this volatile market only pros with algo trading can afford to play this intense and rapid moves that almost seems unreal.
There are no markets and it's just financial engineering with rearranging of the financial pecking order
 

madhu

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Makes a lot of sense... Trump the international business & real estate tycoon is completely reliant upon credit & debt financing to keep & maintain his biz empire.... ergo he is completely controllable by international financiers that he relies upon to finance & refinance his various business & real estate activities. Never forget that! JMO
But if he is really dependant on the international financiers for his credit and debit financing, is he self sacrificing and championing for the little guy working on main street? Or is he another snake oil seller to gullible public. Will the globalists derail everything that he does for his nation? It must be a no win situation. I was traveling via NYC And the uber driver tells me that there is a demonstration in front of trump towers every day. I have to agree that no other president has ever been subjected to this kind of scrutiny and prejudice before
 

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the dollar being hit this am even after a increase in rates,

that my friends, does not make a lick of sense when compared to others such as the zero or yen



QT to continue — Fed plans to keep winding down the balance sheet at same rate

By Steve Goldstein

Published: Dec 19, 2018 3:58 p.m. ET


Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during his news conference after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
One takeaway from the Federal Reserve’s decision and press conference on Wednesday is that the central bank will continue its so-called quantitative tightening policy.

The Fed said it would keep reducing its balance sheet by up to $50 billion per month. And Chairman Powell said that policy would continue.

Since beginning the shrinking process in October 2017, the Fed has trimmed its portfolio of Treasury- and mortgage-backed securities by around $365 billion to $4.14 trillion.

“We thought carefully about how to normalize policy and came to the view that we would effectively have the balance sheet run off on automatic pilot and use monetary policy, rate policy to adjust to incoming data. I think that has been a good decision,” he said.

“I think that the runoff of the balance sheet has been smooth and has served its purpose and I don’t see us changing that. And I do think that we will continue to use monetary policy, which is to say rate policy as the active tool of monetary policy.”


There had been some expectations from leading Wall Street firms that the Fed will slow down its policy of reducing the balance sheet. Economists at Morgan Stanley forecast the Fed’s balance sheet will stop shrinking in September, with the balance sheet stabilizing around $3.8 trillion.

The Powell comment at the press conference coincided with an intraday move lower for U.S. stocks DJIA, -1.49% .

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/q...eep-winding-down-the-balance-sheet-2018-12-19
 

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DOW down 347 points as I type this thread. Looks more likely that stocks will enter a Scorpio (a.k.a. Bear) market by year end.

EDIT: Nasdaq currently entered bear market territory today according to CNBC talking heads. DOW and S&P 500 to follow in bear market territory soon in my opinion.
 

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DOW is now down 631 points.
 

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DB @ $8.00 a share & $40 tt in derivatives! What could go wrong?

sc.png
 

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With about 15 minutes left in the trading day today................

DOW down 367 points

Nasdaq down about 200 points

S&P 500 down 49 points

Yep just another down day in the Wall St neighborhood............YAWN!!!!

Carry on
 

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Merry Bah Humbug............................

DOW down 342 points

Nasdaq down 77 points

S&P 500 down 37 points
 

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A short trading just ended at 1:00 PM EST:

DOW down 653.17 points

Nasdaq down 140.08 points

S&P 500 down 65.50 points

VIX = 35.76

I guess the PPT was furloughed in this latest Fed gov't shutdown. The DOW and S&P 500 have the worst Christmas Eve trading day ever. S&P 500 has entered bear market territory. The bear is licking its chops. It is feasting time.

BAH HUMBUG!!!!!!
 

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Anyone been watching the oil drubbing?

I wondered when it was coming after the US went large on production,
They say the only thing that held it up temporarily was the sanctions on iran along with the continued decrease in Vene

Now there is talk that the russians are helping Vene figure out the oil thing

Lot of action at 50 as it tried to hold, but once that was taken, the blood bath was on

View attachment 119460
Another down day for oil. Now if 42 is taken out wonder where the next support levels are. Huge moves on oil and usdx.
BP at 52 weeks low. Schlumberger is being shorted. May be another 20% down? Not financial advise.

The Dow and Nasdaq may go down another 20%? Markets are irrational and pessimism is rife with the longs throwing in the towel. No markets, no relief rally, the shorts have been taken out. Now it's the longs turn to be taken to the woodshed. JMO
 

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The Dow and Nasdaq may go down another 20%? Markets are irrational and pessimism is rife with the longs throwing in the towel. No markets, no relief rally, the shorts have been taken out. Now it's the longs turn to be taken to the woodshed. JMO
As long as we have a trade dispute with China (and other countries), rising interest rates and uncertainty with US gov't policies then the markets will continue to go down. Throw in the possibility of an economic recession, then it would not surprise me to see another 20% in the stock market.
 

Silver Art

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DOW futures up about 94 points. Probably going to be more selling today. Sellers have been having a field day with stocks so far.
 

Silver Art

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DOW now up only about 22 points.
 

Silver Art

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End of trading day 12-26-2018:

DOW up 1086.25 points (up 4.98%)

Nasdaq up 361.44 points (up ~5.84%)

S&P 500 up 116.64 points (up 4.96%)

The DOW broke a record for the largest 1-day up-move. Also the 1st time ever for a 1000+ point up move in the DOW.
 

madhu

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Dow up 1086 points. Awesome. But does it mean anything? not convinced that it is bull market again. Everyday the market is looking for some government assistance, dole for the market to go up. If the government takes the punch bowl everyone is whining and crying loud.
But at least the market reversed its decline even with oil selling off everyday. If the oil goes up then it breaks the rise of the Dow as oil is a tax on growth. Cannot trust anything anymore even good companies.