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Scorpio

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Hedge Funds Are Shorting the VIX at a Rate Never Seen Before
By
Sarah Ponczek

April 26, 2019, 4:01 PM CDT

  • CFTC data showed record net position betting on market calm
  • Sign of complacency? Strategists advise investors not to worry


As equities surge to all-time highs, volatility has all but vanished. Hedge funds are betting the calm will last, shorting the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, at rates not seen in at least 15 years.



Large speculators, mostly hedge funds, were net short about 178,000 VIX futures contracts on April 23, the largest such position on record, weekly CFTC data that dates back to 2004 show. Commonly known as the stock market fear gauge, aggressive bets against the VIX are, depending on your worldview, evidence of either confidence or complacency.




Strategists lately have been pushing back on the idea that a lot of useful information is visible in VIX positioning data. CFTC data doesn’t take into account positioning seen in exchange-traded-products -- which is notably long volatility -- or the type of traders who hold a mix of both long and shorts as a hedge or relative value strategy.

The VIX rose this week, but still remains below 13 -- more than 30 percent below the gauge’s average over the last 20 years. While the VIX inched higher, so too did stocks, the S&P 500 rising to a new record.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-shorting-the-vix-at-a-rate-never-seen-before
 

JayDubya

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America's dying malls have claimed another victim -- Brookstone files for bankruptcy

https://www.aol.com/article/finance...-victim-brookstone-files-bankruptcy/23494739/

  • Brookstone filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Thursday.
  • The gadgets and unique gifts store said it would be closing all of its remaining mall locations.
  • It is looking for a buyer to take on its more successful e-commerce business and airport stores.
  • The retailer cited declining traffic to malls as one of the main reasons for its demise.
Brookstone filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Thursday and announced it would be closing all of its remaining 101 mall locations, citing declining traffic to malls as a key contributor to its struggles.

"The decision to close our mall stores was difficult, but ultimately provides an opportunity to maintain our well-respected brand and award-winning products while operating with a smaller physical footprint," the company's CEO, Piau Phang Foo, said in a statement to the press on Thursday.

This is the second time the company has filed for bankruptcy since the recession. In 2014, a group of Chinese buyers backed by retail conglomerate Sanpower Group and Hong Kong-based private-equity firm Sailing Capital bought the company for roughly $174 million, according to Bloomberg.

The store sells a mix of unique gifts and gadgets, which seem to be resonating better with customers in airports, as Brookstone's 35 airport stores across the United States will stay in business while the company seeks a buyer for that division.

“Our airport, e-commerce and wholesale business divisions are operating successfully and should prove attractive to a buyer with the financial resources and vision to carry our company into the future," Foo said.

A national retail apocalypse has crippled US malls as anchor stores such as Macy's and Sears, which take up large retail spaces and drive foot traffic, have shuttered stores and left malls with enormous gaps to fill. This has also put pressure on smaller retailers, such as Brookstone, that rely on the foot traffic generated by these larger department-store chains.

In 2017, more than 6,400 stores closed, and another 3,600 are expected to shutter in 2018. According to a report by Credit Suisse, this will result in 20-25% of malls closing in the next five years.

RELATED: Every retailer who filed for bankruptcy in 2018
 

Joseph

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not as expected for sure,

Vene is in deep turmoil, and metals are taking a hit,
Oil also moving down

Both of which one would think would be moving positive
Weren't oil prices already dropping, creating an even bigger impact on Vene economy ? leading it to where it is today ?


Oil Prices Pushing Venezuela To Economic Collapse?

BY SHEHRYAR SOHAIL

Updated Mar 13, 2015

"The asymmetric effects of the plunge in oil prices across the importers and exporters of oil have significantly impacted the forecasted global growth rates for 2015 and 2016, as published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook report. The IMF has lowered the global growth that's expected for 2015 and 2016 to 3.5 and 3.7 percent respectively -- both lessened by 0.3 percent. The upward effect on global growth prospects due to lower oil prices along with other factors such as the depreciation of the Euro and yen was more than offset by unfavorable forces acting on the world economy, including the economic crises in many advanced and emerging market economies.

The Seventh Largest Oil Exporter…

Venezuela, the 7th largest net exporter of oil in 2013, derives around 96 percent of its export earnings from oil-related sectors. According to the Central Intelligence Agency, these oil revenues represent 45 percent of Venezuela’s budgeted revenues and around 12 percent of its GDP. It's therefore evident that Venezuela is highly vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices and that a $1 dip in per-barrel price means a significant loss of government revenue. (See article: When Will Oil Finally Hit Bottom?)"

https://www.investopedia.com/articl...rices-pushing-venezuela-economic-collapse.asp
 

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Weren't oil prices already dropping, creating an even bigger impact on Vene economy ? leading it to where it is today ?


Oil Prices Pushing Venezuela To Economic Collapse?

BY SHEHRYAR SOHAIL

Updated Mar 13, 2015

"The asymmetric effects of the plunge in oil prices across the importers and exporters of oil have significantly impacted the forecasted global growth rates for 2015 and 2016, as published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook report. The IMF has lowered the global growth that's expected for 2015 and 2016 to 3.5 and 3.7 percent respectively -- both lessened by 0.3 percent. The upward effect on global growth prospects due to lower oil prices along with other factors such as the depreciation of the Euro and yen was more than offset by unfavorable forces acting on the world economy, including the economic crises in many advanced and emerging market economies.

The Seventh Largest Oil Exporter…

Venezuela, the 7th largest net exporter of oil in 2013, derives around 96 percent of its export earnings from oil-related sectors. According to the Central Intelligence Agency, these oil revenues represent 45 percent of Venezuela’s budgeted revenues and around 12 percent of its GDP. It's therefore evident that Venezuela is highly vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices and that a $1 dip in per-barrel price means a significant loss of government revenue. (See article: When Will Oil Finally Hit Bottom?)"

https://www.investopedia.com/articl...rices-pushing-venezuela-economic-collapse.asp
Venezuela PROVES, you can vote your way into Socialism, but you will have to shoot your way out!!!
 

Scorpio

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leading it to where it is today
the oil price drop is the same for US manufacturers, as it is for the sauds, or anyone else for that matter.

Those declining prices back then were in a commodity market that was racing to the up

realistically, these dimwits, as well as the sauds, have been building budgets based on unrealistic expectations.

For instance, using $80/barrel for a yearly avg, when the yearly avg will be more like 60

Or stating production will be 1.5M barrels per day, when it is in fact closer to 750K or half

etc.

the oil price decline did not collapse the economies,

for Vene, it was vastly overinflated revenue projections as well as a destruction of their production machine
 

Joseph

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Venezuela, the 7th largest net exporter of oil in 2013, derives around 96 percent of its export earnings from oil-related sectors. According to the Central Intelligence Agency, these oil revenues represent 45 percent of Venezuela’s budgeted revenues and around 12 percent of its GDP. It's therefore evident that Venezuela is highly vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices and that a $1 dip in per-barrel price means a significant loss of government revenue. (See article: When Will Oil Finally Hit Bottom?)"
Venezuela PROVES, you can vote your way into Socialism, but you will have to shoot your way out!!!
realistically, these dimwits, as well as the sauds, have been building budgets based on unrealistic expectations.
To be clear, I wasn't defending or justifying Venezuela's socialist utopia . My point was the following:

"During the prolonged oil bonanza, Venezuela's economic mismanagement was masked by its soaring oil revenues, which were used to finance populist social programs. This improved the country's social indicators and led to macroeconomic balances. However, the oil-dependent economy, without a competitive non-oil sector, has now been facing a huge challenge as the per-barrel prices hit a five-year low, with the situation expected to worsen by the first half of 2015. "

The drop in oil price simply expedited their downfall ... and the cascading effect we are seeing today
 

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To be clear, I wasn't defending or justifying Venezuela's socialist utopia . My point was the following:

"During the prolonged oil bonanza, Venezuela's economic mismanagement was masked by its soaring oil revenues, which were used to finance populist social programs. This improved the country's social indicators and led to macroeconomic balances. However, the oil-dependent economy, without a competitive non-oil sector, has now been facing a huge challenge as the per-barrel prices hit a five-year low, with the situation expected to worsen by the first half of 2015. "

The drop in oil price simply expedited their downfall ... and the cascading effect we are seeing today
Its systemic, TPTB are pushing a world-wide agenda .... Pension & Retirement actuaries published ROI data based upon a 8+% returns to keep these funds solvent... just like Vene & Sauds did with their oil profits. It was total nonsense as the 200 plus year average ROI is around 5.5% in the very best of times. Seems like a big global con job has been perpetuated by the special interests of the Anglo-American empire to burn down & bankrupt the world thru complex extraction schemes. JMO
 

Scorpio

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yes, it has many different forms than just oil revenues

as you state, they do the same here with fantasy projections for both corp and .gov

one thing we can all agree on is that inflation (monetary printing) will continue until it doesn't

the rest are all just manifestations and gimmicks of the true game in town
 

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Does ANYONE not believe $150 barrel oil was devastating to everyone and everything?
Look at a chart as $150 it was simply a blip that didn't last.
kenyan wanted $9 gallon and country came to a halt at $4.50.
What financial genius based their numbers on fantasy instead of reality?
What financial genius sticks with hopium fantasy over reality?

They were set up by tptb, used as a pawn and then they were taken down.
 

Scorpio

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oil was getting hit on the open last evening,
now still down over a buck, but it had recovered some of those losses by this am

gold is flat to up while silver gives up some of its recent recovery from that hit it took

the dollar provides no clues as it holds steady over 97 with no further moves to the up yet

stocks are taking a hit this am though, as we see how that shakes. They have been talking the mantra of sell in may for awhile now, and it looks as though some are doing just that

they say the reason is potus talking about tarriffs again
 

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yet another caught up in the global warming nonsense from the zero zone;

extraction baby!



Porsche to pay 535 million euro fine over diesel affair, by

German prosecutors have imposed a fine of 535 million euros ($598.99 million) on German luxury carmaker Porsche AG for neglecting supervisory obligations linked to diesel emissions cheating, they said in a statement on Tuesday.
 

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---"One of the main malincentives that cause the elites to "hate white people" or the middle class in general, the better we are - the less authority they have - the less opportunity for them to free ride."--- Alain Dwight
 

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world wide, There is a push for the creation of oligarch who have become extremely wealthy by befriending politicians. The chief minister of Andhra Pradesh, a state in south India created a government health care for all poor people. The reason he gave this government funded program to a company run by his brother in law on benami name. Result he made 6000 crores of rupees, approximately 60 billion dollars.

Oligarchy may be a good gig for controlling the poor people in Asia by robbing the government vaults by various schemes and paying up a little and bribing others. Oligarchs are also easy prey for western governments as they can extort and extraction.

Capitalism is corrupt and causes the poverty that can never be escaped in developing countries.
 

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Theres no inflation!

FB_IMG_1557627802715.jpg
 

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WHAT? You mean there's effects to communism? AOC and her leftists pals haven't said a thing about 'em.
 

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"DOING THE CRIMES AMERICANS JUST WON'T DO"
by Eric Best

Illegals and non-citizens are 7% of the population, producing 42% of the crimes, and 16% of the remaining non-european population produces the same amount of crime.

So, instead of doing the work americans just won't do, they're "Doing the crimes Americans just won't do."
 

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ON THE CORPORATION AND CAPITALISM
Curt Doolittle

A corporation is simply an organization that is insured by the state in its role as insurer of last resort, to limit risk (penalty for failure in the market), to capital-at-risk (shared capital), so that individuals can rally capital in a private (state defended) rather than state (militarily defended) interests.

Its an insurance scheme. and insurance schemes are almost always the optimum market means of "choosing" any game (competition).

So the problem with the "corporation" is, like the problem with 'capitalism', almost entirely one of insufficient accounting on the one hand, and the state's limit on our standing in matters of the commons. As we have seen, the market alone cannot prevent bad actors, nor the state.

But corporations serve also as a competitor to the State, Law, Religion. We are best thinking of State(force), Capitalism(trade), and Religion (speech) as the three means of influence that must be mutually regulated (equilibrated) by the law (Rules of the Game of Reciprocity).

State(rallying offense), Market (rallying exchange), Religion/Philosophy/Ideology (rallying resistance/defense), and the Law is either as in the west a mediator between those weapons of influence, or a tool of one or more of them. Markets in everything (competition) is best.

THE ABRAHAMIC FRAUD OF CAPITALISM VS MARXISM - VS THE EUROPEAN TRUTH OF RULE OF LAW AND MARKETS.

Capitalism like marxism was invented by the intellectual class of the ashkenazi revolt against modernity, to change the frame from one of rule of law and markets, and merit by contribution to both, verus arbitrary rule and authoritarian distribution, without consideration of merit and avoidance of contribution to both law and markets.

The question has always been markets and rule of lw vus authority and rule by man (discretion).

Capitalism (impossible) vs marxism (impossible) were another false conflcit (heaven and hell) created by the great lies (abrahamism), that consists of false promise to bait into moral hazard, to enable and justify parasitism, by those who are unproductive and attempting to escape contribution to the commons, and instead, profit from avoidance of contribution to the commons - and parasitism upon it.

That's what abrahamism consists of: The female group strategy among competitive males.

Destroy the males, empower competing groups.

Conquer the males through undermining.

WHich is why white women defected to the left. To destroy their men under the false promise of the second abrahamic conquest of western civilization by false promise.
 

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A lesson for the 9 - 5 slaves & slave owners .....

 

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Scorpio

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as we had spoken to, with the rest of the world economies on life support,
the usd should have been gaining ground,

went down and tested the 200 dma, and now is holding firmly above the 50 dma, finding support each time it falls as that seems to be the buyers cue to come back at it,

in other words, strong chart action

it held serve for quite some time, but recently went to 97 and change, and held that,
it is now attempting a shot at 98

probed it once, and now looking to push thru

again, that is not metal positive at this time


1.png


the weekly clearly shows the extended sideways action relative,
and now the 50 week ma is crossing the 200, adding further momentum to the trend
currently pushing north of that range

2.png
 

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According to this article we're in the middle of it.
Should happen any day now...

Fireworks in May & June

https://thedailycoin.org/2019/05/15/fireworks-in-may-june/

Fireworks in May & June

Miles Franklin sponsored this article by Gary Christenson. The opinions are his.

Jim Sinclair: “The party is over in mid-2019.”

Jim Rogers: “I see the worst stock market correction of your lifetime coming.”

Gary Christenson: “The fireworks will start in May—June 2019.”

Wall Street Cheerleaders: The bull market will continue for another year, probably many years. Long live QE, Fed stimulus, stock market rallies, FAANG stocks, blah blah blah.

A BOXING ANALOGY.

In the green corner from Wall Street, with over ten years of record stock market advances, we present “The Greatest Bull Market Ever.” Cheers…

In the red corner from middle America, hounded by decades of ever-increasing debt and consumer price inflation, we present “Fireworks in May and June.” Boos…

The Bull Market Scenario – Courtesy of Wall Street:

  • The S&P 500 Index fell to a low of 667 in March 2009, over ten years ago, and recently rose to 2,954. The decade-long advance has been consistent and strong. Unemployment is low, the Fed is accommodative and “official inflation” is tiny. If the Fed does not raise interest rates, more liquidity will flow into the market and stock prices will rise further.

  • A Presidential election will occur in 18 months—the silly season has begun. The sitting President wants to avoid a recession, stock market crash and higher interest rates because they will kill his reelection chances. He will support further market levitation.
This writer doesn’t buy the “strong economy” story. However, it’s tough to argue against massive liquidity injections and new debt levitating the market. Further, this writer thought the S&P 500 index peaked in 2015 and would fall thereafter. It fell but reversed higher. The Fed and banking cartel levitated the market, with trillions of new debts and the stock market climbed to new highs.

THE FIREWORKS IN MAY AND JUNE SCENARIO—A REVERSAL IS DUE:

  • There are many indications that stock indices have peaked or are reaching tops. This is an abbreviated list.

  • Margin debt is extreme and has peaked. If history is a guide, 2019 will print a multi-year top in stock indices.

  • Cheap and abundant debt enabled stock buybacks that boosted stock prices without improving company profitability or efficiency. The debt must be repaid or rolled. Unproductive debt is a drag on current and future earnings.

  • A second U.S. aircraft carrier strike group is threatening Iran. Wars are destructive, costly, inflationary, and often parallel stock market declines. What is the real reason for mid-East wars?

  • Pension plans are underfunded by several trillions of dollars. The coming recession will hurt those plans and increase shortfalls. This leads to angry retirees and reduced pension checks.

  • Many ratios and charts show an over-extended market “searching for a pin” to pop the stock market and debt bubbles.

  • The Elliott Wave people believe the five wave-count is complete and a major correction will follow.

  • The sitting President wants to be reelected – unlikely if the market crashes or the economy tips into a recession. Anti-Trump forces will be happy to crash the market to kill his election prospects.

  • Michael Snyder listed 19 facts that show the economy is NOT booming. A few:

  • S. auto sales were down 6.1% in April, the worst decline in 8 years.

  • Mortgage applications have fallen four consecutive weeks.

  • Luxury home sales have crashed in many cities.

  • Farm incomes are falling. The floods, tariffs and bankruptcies hurt. Food prices will rise.

  • The Retail Apocalypse has struck. Thousands of retail stores are closed, and 6,000 more stores will close in 2019.

  • Credit Card charge-offs at U.S. banks have risen to the highest level in nearly 7 years.

CHARTS THAT SHOW DANGEROUS CONDITIONS:

  • The NASDAQ 100 to S&P 500 ratio is high, like before the crash in 2000. The NASDAQ advance is narrow and frothy.




  • Commodity prices are too low compared to the S&P 500 Index. They will correct higher.




  • The silver to gold ratio has fallen to multi-decade lows. Expect silver to correct higher and rapidly compared to gold, debt, and the S&P 500 Index.




  • The Russell 2000 Index has not confirmed the highs in the Dow or the NASDAQ. The advance since 2016 has been narrow and frothy –a few high-flying stocks pulled major indexes higher.




  • Silver prices are at a two-decade low compared to the NASDAQ 100.




  • The NASDAQ 100 Index has broken a weekly uptrend line and appears ready to fall much farther. The same is true for the DOW and S&P 500.




  • Corporate debt to GDP ratio shows a credit cycle peak and probability of recession.




Margin Debt has peaked. Look out below.





CONCLUSIONS:


  • Perhaps the Fed liquidity pump, inexpensive interest rates, “happy talk,” tweets, and propaganda will extend the levitation several years longer. The stock market could rise into November 2020, but I doubt it.

  • Many charts, ratios, and patterns show the U.S. economy has reached peaks in the credit cycle and stock market. The next major move will probably be downward. Look out below.

  • The derivative monster may wake from its ten-year slumber. Deutsche Bank closed May 10 at $7.87, off 93% from its 2007 high. Risk of a derivative crisis is rising, as shown by collapsing Deutsche Bank stock prices.

  • A risk-reward analysis favored paper assets, leverage, ever-increasing debt, fiscal and monetary nonsense, and Wall Street cheerleaders for most of a decade. The above graphs suggest the risk-reward analysis is turning away from debt-based assets toward real assets and commodities.

  • The silver to gold ratio is too low based on decades of history. When it finally turns (we’ve been waiting for years) it will fly higher because silver and gold hold no counter-party risk while other assets are loaded with counter-party risk. Buy silver for protection.

Buy silver and gold for “insurance” and purchasing power protection from market crashes, derivative implosions, credit crunches, political nonsense, MMT, central bank predations, currency crashes, and counter-party risks.

Miles Franklin will convert debt-based devaluing currencies into real money—gold and silver. Give them a call at 1-800-822-8080.

Gary Christenson
The Deviant Investor
 

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SOVEREIGNTY, VS LIBERTY AND FREEDOM

Sovereignty exits in fact. Liberty and Freedom exist by permission of those who are in fact sovereign. Period. Therefore one is sovereign in fact because he and those who insure him, have sufficient capacity of violence to remain sovereign, and those who have liberty or freedom have so only by the permission of those who are sovereign. Period.
 

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Drove from Ohio to chicongo yesterday on the turnpike. Semi traffic heavy & running everywhere. New buildings going up in northern Indiana. Even the western congo burbs are knocking down old shopping centers & building new.

They might pull the rug out but flyover country is working.
 

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regarding gm and ford

gm tried that shit before they took the .gov bailout to save their asses from liquidation,

ford had $6B in cash on their balance sheet and gm wanted it,
so gm set up a meet with ford, but the ford was smart enough to know what they were up to,
so he posed the question, what happens after..............didn't like the answers as reportedly it was all about gm,
so the ford boy told them to gtfo of his offices

here they come again,

yeah ford has it tough, because they are working on their own moxy and they never did get a free bailout, nor did they have the chance to write down billions onto the taxpayer as gm did.

so of course gm should be in better shape

then add that the ptb are dying to keep the 'ho in charge at gm in charge, because it is a she

@#$ gm and everything gm

I wouldn't take a vehicle from them if you gave me one