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Scorpio

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think about that 1.25% for 30 years.................
 

Uglytruth

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Locking in massive losses through inflation just like negative saving rates.
 

ErrosionOfAccord

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Nat gas is killing coal. It's a murder suicide. Layoffs happening and equipment being idled.
 

Scorpio

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now that is interesting,
silver actually was the clue as it did not follow gold up last evening,

by this am, silver moved down and gold gave up all of its gains and taking the 17 hill, only to go negative

baby getting tossed with the bath water
 

Scorpio

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somebody brought up a good question a week or so ago,

that if oil was in full decline, then what happens to the black gold trade, oil/dollar

as oil has fallen, the dollar has also followed suit, down from recent highs

1.png
 

Scorpio

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One thing worth considering is as follows,

whoever started this, got one heck of a gift from the fed when they did the emergency 50 pt cut,

that is what put the markets into freak out mode,
to me, if it wasn't for that, things would already be stable,
he basically blew up the bond market to the down on yields,

remembering too, the head of the fed has been constantly talked down to and berated by 'el presidente, and he very possibly could be right in the middle of this for his reasons,

then too, all the dems have stated they are friends of chin land, and that alone is a major 'thinkum' moment for chin li,

he could care less about short term pain if it meant getting rid of the dog at his door,

lots of possibilities and moving parts, and so many enemies made and nurtured,
 

Scorpio

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Interesting how silver is following stocks around, acting as a supply commodity, almost moving in concert

while gold retains its monetary basis, and moves contrary to stocks,
 

Strawboss

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Interesting how silver is following stocks around, acting as a supply commodity, almost moving in concert

while gold retains its monetary basis, and moves contrary to stocks,
Yup - I would estimate that 2/3 of silvers moves are commodity driven and 1/3 monetary driven...not exact of course - but close enough...
 

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sc.png


sc (1).png
 

dpong

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S&P markets didn't like the virus speech. Expectations not delivered.
 

Scorpio

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10 yr yield bounces a bit here,

before the overnight 1000 pt loss again in the dog

hit under 1/2% before jumping back up to 80 pts or so


2.png
 

Scorpio

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recent dow chart as of yesterday


3.png
 

dpong

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@Scorpio Notice the RSI isn't even bottomed out on your Dow chart. Sharp snap-back rallies are dampening the oversold indicator. Wow!
 

Scorpio

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I have been referencing this a lot,

waking up yet?

----------------
We arrive at this moment with the overleveraged corporate sector about to face the prospect that new-issue bond markets may seize up, as they did last week, and that even seemingly sound companies will find credit expensive or difficult to obtain.
The prospect of a crisis at maturity—that a borrower with maturing debt finds it impossible to roll the debt over to pay it off—is a very real prospect even for companies that are solvent. It has happened before, and it will happen again.
All of this points to the fact that it is virtually impossible to identify the next domino to fall but one thing seems certain: They will continue to fall.
How did we get into such a precarious position? After a decade of profligate borrowing by corporations, it would seem that any reasonable investor would have realized the fragility of the financial system.


Our estimate is that there is potentially as much as a trillion dollars of high-grade bonds heading to junk. That supply would swamp the high yield market as it would double the size of the below investment grade bond market. That alone would widen spreads even without the effect of increasing defaults.

https://www.guggenheiminvestments.c...navirus-economic-bond-stock-oil-market-effect
 

Scorpio

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metals up on the cross today, getting crucified along with the rest,

gold and silver now at a 15 handle
 

Scorpio

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hit it, let's get it

dow dog now down over 2 grand, and off over 7000 since the start of the year,

painting a 21 now from a 29 just not long ago
 

solarion

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GSR = 100.33

Golly I wonder how long that can continue. My own guess is it'll end the second dummies stop stacking bankster frauds and calling it metal.
 

ErrosionOfAccord

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When this shit bounces I might think about puts on BTU. Stick a fork in it. I think they BK again but they are inside of seven years. Does that require liquidation?

My nuts aren’t really big enough for options but yeah, I think it goes down again. What’s more is that the big banks have been giving coal the finger for the last six months.
 

Cigarlover

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I think corporate execs were just cashing out as much as they possibly could and squeezing every last drop. They cant all be this collectively stupid can they?
Are we on GIM just the smartest braintrust on the planet? I don't include me in we. :)
 

Scorpio

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on the weekly spx, you can see that the sp500 is only approaching the levels when this last happened just over a year ago,

in other words, a nothing burger yet again,

1.png
 

Au-myn

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The NY Composite seems to be leading leading the waaaaay down. And there is a long way to go.

nya.png
 

Uglytruth

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Bear market. Virus market, remove Trump market I expect 15000 range for a bottom. Totally pull outta my ass guess. Think it has to be less than when Trump took office and decimate 401K's to turn people away from Trump. The attacks have already started by the guilty party's. They will ravage the entire world to the bitter end because they have no other options as people wake up everywhere.
 

Scorpio

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gold and silver flyin to the up on the asian open,

with stocks being crushed again with the new news of more rate cuts, to zero
 

Scorpio

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check this chart for last 5 weeks of propane pricing,
note the areas and how your area compares to others,

florida gets killed on propane pricing, while the best appears to be in NE

my optimal buy time is usually very late aug thru mid oct or so. When it gets that time of year, I start paying attention to the price action and just choose a point in time at a price willing and load up.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_wfr_a_EPLLPA_PRS_dpgal_w.htm
 

Scorpio

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just heard they are planning/looking ahead to a possible $3T deficit this year for the US

also heard that this has wiped out all of the tramp gains in stocks since the election,

well, that is not true, as the stock market went on a huge run the day after the election and beyond inauguration. Apparently they are giving credit to the kenyan for that huge run between nov and Jan 20

of course they are
 
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Scorpio

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for your pleasure, gold and silver charts:

1.png


2.png
 

Scorpio

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crazy stuff everyone,

Dow Jones Fut

17537
17542
17538
-732
-4
18396
17522
04:38:25


Nasdaq100 Fut
4562.11
4562.15
4562.11
-236.12
-5.18
4837.40
4560.73
04:38:25


S&P 500 Future
2029.63
2030.13
2029.63
-105.50
-5.20

This was from election day earlier in this thread,

Point is, look at the numbers compared to today,
 

Hystckndle

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"Avoid Large Gatherings"
I.E. Bigger and Corporate clients ( Disney, Universal Lockheed , 24Hrs Fitness, etc ...pick one ) after closing the parks and offices are now closing down / postponing current ongoing construction projects for undetermined time. Layoffs at affiliate subcontractor +100 yesterday.
Trickle down the supply chain from the physical hands on then...as in...
Supply houses shut down all outside sales calls.
Supply houses moved will call into the parking lot. Temporary counter un manned.
Supply houses NOT taking returns. I.E. Not touching anything.
( NOTE: I personally called and asked the SOBs if they were moving the GD complimentary hot dog and popcorn stands outside also..no reply )
Anyways,
There goes the backlog and rev projections.

Further.
BI Insurance.
I.E. Business Interruption Insurance....almost eone who has insurance has this buried in their policies....Hartford one of the big players in the day. many others.
I am gonna explore this one a bit because it could swamp the system
I will bet though...in recent years....some of them have put pandemic disclosures into the fine prints of the policy revisions one gets.
Gotta check that out.

Back later.

Nice Silver # huh. 12ish.
Crikey
 

oldgaranddad

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@Hystckndle Most business interruption insurance has caveats for war, pandemics and government decrees. Since most closures are a result of some sort of government decree, all bets are off.
 

Scorpio

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yep, and they have themselves covered every which way from Sunday so you as a small business owner have zero recourse,
 

Hystckndle

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@Hystckndle Most business interruption insurance has caveats for war, pandemics and government decrees. Since most closures are a result of some sort of government decree, all bets are off.
10-4, Agreed. Have seen and read the war , terrorism, acts of the Klingons etc etc etc parts. Pandemic or not, yes, .gov decree.
But you see what I was thinking there.
Which even gives me more of a " hmmmm " moment.

BTW...if no evictions or foreclosures gets written into the process bill....game changer for me. I will re rig totally.
 

Scorpio

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speaking of vikes, I got even with Khan, as he was a vikings fan

if'n you notice, the highest level of poohbah around here like Hof'ers and the like are all painted in green and gold...................

sucks to be him.

ohhh chit, he said yikes, not vikes
ahh well, you can pardon the thread drift for a momentito
 

Cigarlover

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Is BB ok? He's been rather quiet through all this
 

BarnacleBob

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Is BB ok? He's been rather quiet through all this
I'm alright, thanks for asking... Just watching the beer virus hoax play out for signs of who is responsible for this nonsense....
 

Au-myn

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speaking of vikes, I got even with Khan, as he was a vikings fan

if'n you notice, the highest level of poohbah around here like Hof'ers and the like are all painted in green and gold...................

sucks to be him.

ohhh chit, he said yikes, not vikes
ahh well, you can pardon the thread drift for a momentito
Speaking of the great Khan, I remember when we started up GIM and The Silver King "Khan" wanted to add brown and yellow as background colors. Yea right, Minnesota U colors. Scorpio and I said NO way!!

:laughing:
 

Scorpio

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hey guys, dollar flying to the up,
crossed over 100 and is up over 200 pts today, to over 101, almost 102

punching out to highs it hasn't seen in quite some time now

1.png
 

Scorpio

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crude oil is in serious deep doo doo,

down 6 bucks again today and ready to flop down thru 20 bucks a barrel..................

20

big stuff going on,

and that 20 is going to put a whole lot of people in a whole lot of hurt,

this chart is from yesterday, after today will be quite a sight

1.png