We arrive at this moment with the overleveraged corporate sector about to face the prospect that new-issue bond markets may seize up, as they did last week, and that even seemingly sound companies will find credit expensive or difficult to obtain.
The prospect of a crisis at maturity—that a borrower with maturing debt finds it impossible to roll the debt over to pay it off—is a very real prospect even for companies that are solvent. It has happened before, and it will happen again.
All of this points to the fact that it is virtually impossible to identify the next domino to fall but one thing seems certain: They will continue to fall.
How did we get into such a precarious position? After a decade of profligate borrowing by corporations, it would seem that any reasonable investor would have realized the fragility of the financial system.
Our estimate is that there is potentially as much as a trillion dollars of high-grade bonds heading to junk. That supply would swamp the high yield market as it would double the size of the below investment grade bond market. That alone would widen spreads even without the effect of increasing defaults.
I think corporate execs were just cashing out as much as they possibly could and squeezing every last drop. They cant all be this collectively stupid can they?
Are we on GIM just the smartest braintrust on the planet? I don't include me in we. :)
Bear market. Virus market, remove Trump market I expect 15000 range for a bottom. Totally pull outta my ass guess. Think it has to be less than when Trump took office and decimate 401K's to turn people away from Trump. The attacks have already started by the guilty party's. They will ravage the entire world to the bitter end because they have no other options as people wake up everywhere.
check this chart for last 5 weeks of propane pricing,
note the areas and how your area compares to others,
florida gets killed on propane pricing, while the best appears to be in NE
my optimal buy time is usually very late aug thru mid oct or so. When it gets that time of year, I start paying attention to the price action and just choose a point in time at a price willing and load up.
just heard they are planning/looking ahead to a possible $3T deficit this year for the US
also heard that this has wiped out all of the tramp gains in stocks since the election,
well, that is not true, as the stock market went on a huge run the day after the election and beyond inauguration. Apparently they are giving credit to the kenyan for that huge run between nov and Jan 20
"Avoid Large Gatherings"
I.E. Bigger and Corporate clients ( Disney, Universal Lockheed , 24Hrs Fitness, etc ...pick one ) after closing the parks and offices are now closing down / postponing current ongoing construction projects for undetermined time. Layoffs at affiliate subcontractor +100 yesterday.
Trickle down the supply chain from the physical hands on then...as in...
Supply houses shut down all outside sales calls.
Supply houses moved will call into the parking lot. Temporary counter un manned.
Supply houses NOT taking returns. I.E. Not touching anything.
( NOTE: I personally called and asked the SOBs if they were moving the GD complimentary hot dog and popcorn stands outside also..no reply )
There goes the backlog and rev projections.
I.E. Business Interruption Insurance....almost eone who has insurance has this buried in their policies....Hartford one of the big players in the day. many others.
I am gonna explore this one a bit because it could swamp the system
I will bet though...in recent years....some of them have put pandemic disclosures into the fine prints of the policy revisions one gets.
Gotta check that out.
10-4, Agreed. Have seen and read the war , terrorism, acts of the Klingons etc etc etc parts. Pandemic or not, yes, .gov decree.
But you see what I was thinking there.
Which even gives me more of a " hmmmm " moment.
BTW...if no evictions or foreclosures gets written into the process bill....game changer for me. I will re rig totally.