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BarnacleBob

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arminius

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Bloomie requires you to register to read.
 

Scorpio

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note how 10 years yields have been jumping back to the up,
neglecting the current stock swoon,
maybe leading the turn,

back over 1% again,

or just setting up a return to the lows, but again, very large moves for a bond market

1.png
 

Scorpio

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here is the dollar from yesterday, and up another 73 today to over 102,
big increases in the dollar in a very short period,
this does work with lower oil prices as the 2 head in opposite directions,
along with of course, metals

that is going to hurt the trade and budget deficits, not that they actually care about such mundane stuff anyway. It will also cap our inflation to nothing.

1.png
 

Scorpio

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Scorpio

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Scorpio

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1.png
 

Scorpio

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not something I have prepped for long term storage in quantity,

like a 500g or a 1000gal
 

Scorpio

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oil flying to the up, even with the dollar up over 200 pts and crossing 103 now,

oil up over 500 pts and back over 25/barrel now
 

BarnacleBob

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FB_IMG_1584675521026.jpg
 

Scorpio

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this am, the dollar rolls off those recent highs,

giving a boost to metals and oil, all on the move to the up

gold up 29 and silver up 76 currently,

rumors in the oil market saying US is spec'ing (hoping for) a deal where opec, russia, and Us all cut production to raise oil price
 

Hystckndle

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Pretty cool BB to see that,
I was introduced to him ( not personally of course ) way back by my favorite
professor that eone thought was a lunatic...and I loved him.....this guy....Johann,
Studying Mr Fullers works made a big impact on me.
Thanks, made my day.
( Scorp, you can delete this if not apropro for the thread, as its just a note to BB as he mention B Fuller )
 

BackwardsEngineeer

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Uglytruth

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FWIW CHS airforce base is close to my place... an inordinate amount of military flyover... way more fighters than normal...
Hope they are making trips to gitmo & returning empty!
 

Scorpio

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for reference, big swing in crude futures yesterday

high of 28.49 with a low of 22.39

finished down 3.28 on the day to 22.63

here is the chart, fell hard to the 20 area and now no real place to go with the demand destruction going on

1.png
 

Scorpio

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Here you can see the metals trying to carve out bottoms in here,

basically waiting for further direction,

silv.png

gold.png
 
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Scorpio

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this one is showing the large move in USD over this period,

for a currency, this is a big deal, now over 103, and of course contrary direction to the purported official position

one thing that comes to mind, is the ability to buy more worldwide with a stronger dollar,
so for instance, if the fed wanted to go shopping, they have a much better op than just 2 weeks ago.



usd.png
 

BackwardsEngineeer

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Scorp,
What is strange is that the strong USD is not crushing some of the currencies on the exchange rate... we constantly follow USD to CRC as we grab bunches of Costa Rican dollars to spend while in country. Last summer when we were there the exchange rate was 625 to 1 at Cooplianza, the local exchange place we use in Manuel Antonio. Knowing we were coming back in January we converted all our extra cash as we left into CRC's... we bring cash because vendors in CR must pay a 13% VAT, so cash saves the 13 plus a lot of times much more %. Anyway.... with the dollar screaming to the up and things in CR worse than bad, no tourists = no economy in tourist towns, yet the exchange has actually dropped a tad from the 573 we got in January..... Thoughts?

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=CRC&view=5Y
 

Scorpio

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BE,

the dollar index is a basket of currencies,
with that one not being in the basket, it won't have or be impacted by the usd moves
it will be set/adjusted by the ptb for its local value only

in other words, the big boyz are playin' and the small fry are on the back burner for now
 

Scorpio

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note, chinland isn't part of the basket



The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, DX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies,[1] often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies.[2] The Index goes up when the U.S. dollar gains "strength" (value) when compared to other currencies.[3]

The index is designed, maintained, and published by ICE (Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.), with the name "U.S. Dollar Index" a registered trademark.[4][5]

It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value relative to following select currencies:




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index
 

Strawboss

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Looks like all systems go for the $USD on the monthly with no resistance until about the 120 area...and after that we would be looking at the 150 area from back in 1985 when the Plaza accord was put in place...

1584808546104.png
 

Strawboss

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If the dollar keeps ripping higher - gold is gonna get whacked I think...

1584809258442.png
 

Uglytruth

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It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value relative to following select currencies:


Just wondering what would have happened IF Brexit didn't happen.........
Euro would have went up another 11.9% and drug the rest in with them?
What about Czech Republic etc...... do they become isolated and loose power?
 

JayDubya

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A Covid-19 Supply Chain Shock Born in China Is Going Global

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-supply-chain-shock-100000918.html

The world’s supply chains are facing a root-to-branch shutdown unlike any seen in modern peacetime as efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak hit everything from copper mines in Peru to ball bearing makers in Germany’s industrial heartland.In the last few days, a supply chain crisis that began earlier this year with Chinese factories has spread into key industries elsewhere that had weathered the impact until now. The shutdowns are contributing to the growing conviction that the world has slipped into its first recession since the financial crisis more than a decade ago.

“This is kind of a rolling natural disaster,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economic research at Bank of America. “In terms of the impact on global production, the shutdown outside of China will likely become bigger than the impact from China.”

The shock to supply chains, Harris said, is deeper and more sprawling than the trade wars of the past two years and likely to be more prolonged than the storms, earthquakes or floods that have been a source of stress for major industries in the past. He expects factory shutdowns will last into May and possibly longer.

Compounding the blow for companies, the initial supply shock has become interwoven with a demand crisis in Europe, the U.S.
and other major economies as workers and consumers are ordered to stay home.

Apple Suppliers
Apple Inc., for example, is confronting the impact on component makers in Italy, Germany, Malaysia and South Korea after having weathered the February slowdown in Chinese factories that do the final assembly of products like iPhones and AirPods.In Malaysia, key suppliers like Murata Manufacturing Co., Renesas Electronics Corp. and Ibiden Co. have halted production as a result of restrictions on movements imposed by the government. Micron Technology Inc. is affected too, but said an exemption allows “limited semiconductor operations to continue.” Texas Instruments Inc. and On Semiconductor Corp. also have facilities there.Peru’s state of emergency and nationwide lockdown have led major mining companies like Freeport-McMoRan Inc. and Newmont Corp. to curb copper production there. The same is happening in other mining centers like Chile, Canada and
Mongolia, with economists at Scotiabank saying the initial result from the hit in Chile and Peru alone leading to the loss of some 325,000 metric tons of copper production, or about 1.7% of global annual output.In Europe, industrial giants like Volkswagen AG and Airbus SE have shut down assembly lines in an effort both to reduce the spread of the virus and to deal with parts shortages and bottlenecks due to restrictions on travel within Europe.

Bottlenecks
While governments in the region have pledged to safeguard the transport of goods as borders are shut to other nonessential travel, traffic disruptions have started to escalate. Trucks lined up for 40 miles near Berlin after the German border to Poland was closed, and diverting passenger cars to alternatives routes brought little relief.

The car industry is particularly vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. Its fine-tuned logistics are designed to keep storage times to only between 1 and 2 months. The push into electric cars has added to complexity, because production of battery cells requires a steady flow of materials like lithium and cobalt.

Germany’s Schaeffler Group, which employs 87,000 worldwide and is a major supplier to car makers, joined peers on Thursday in hammering out emergency plans to cut capacity in Europe and avoid layoffs. Those include reducing working hours and cutting production on certain days.

“As we have to reduce production in our plants in the light of the crisis, it was important to us that flexible solutions be quickly established,” said Juergen Wechsler, who represents Schaeffler workers for union IG Metall.

Liqui Moly GmbH, a maker of engine oil and lubricants based in the southern German city of Ulm, is suffering dramatic order declines. “If the situation demands it, I will forgo my salary,” Chairman Ernst Prost said.

Detroit Shutdown
Anton Posner, chief executive officer of supply-chain management and consulting company Mercury Resources, said the move by General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co., and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV to temporarily shut down their U.S. plants will reverberate not only through their suppliers of finished parts but in steel, aluminum and transportation.

“We have ships loading steel in Europe next week headed for the U.S., but will there be shipments beyond that with industry shutting down?” he asked. “Who’s going to hold inventory if there’s no consumption?”

U.S. steelmaker Commercial Metals says it’s still at work and facing postponements, not yet cancellations. “So all these jobs are going to come back,” said CEO Barbara Smith.

She hasn’t had any employees infected. But as a company heavily dependent on infrastructure and other construction projects, she is also worried about job sites being shut down due to infections. All of that has left an enormous cloud of uncertainty hanging over her business, even as she continues to book contracts, like one on Thursday related to a highway expansion in
Dallas.

“How can I give guidance when I don’t know how long it’s going to last or what all the ripple effects will be?” she asked. “I think it’s irresponsible for anyone to make assumptions right now.”
 

Scorpio

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asia market open, less than impressed with the morons in dc and across the world,

dow down just under 1000 pts

they locked limit down for now,

oil down 1.58 currently
 

Scorpio

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metals opened up decent and now giving it all back in a hurry
 

Scorpio

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as a fyi,
stocks came off limit down, now starting to flop around after tramps presser
 

Scorpio

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this am stocks down, but holding above the limit area for the time being,

talking point for the media is repubs only care about big business and no deal,
and dems are working hard for the avg worker

standard stuff, and of course, not true

meanwhile, rome burns
 

Scorpio

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couple of charts for you,

first is gdp over time, note that since we started getting serious about running deficits, things kind of settled down

2nd is liquid cb's dollars to the world,

gdp.jpg


liquid.jpg
 

BarnacleBob

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Top China University Group Defaults on $310 Million Bond (1)

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankr...iversity-group-defaults-on-310-million-bond-1

S&P sees more Chinese defaults in 2020 as maturities loom

"Following a year of record defaults in 2019, S&P said it expected defaults to rise even further as Chinese firms face 6.5 trillion yuan ($945 billion) in effective maturities in 2020. That figure includes put options that allow investors to demand early repayment but does not include short-term debt that will be issued and come due within 2020."

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-bonds-sp-idUSL4N29L2OX
 

Scorpio

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further ammo for our pile BB,
 

Scorpio

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looks like bonds are tough sledding and stocks are slaughtered,
so the boyz picked up on the metals markets and away we go,

up big again on gold and silver this am
 

BarnacleBob

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I'm taking the price recovery in the metals as a sign/signal that the worst of the beer virus & financial crash is over...