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Scorpio

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not a bad thought, as you should also go look at the $, getting a comeuppance this am
 

ABC123

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I'm taking the price recovery in the metals as a sign/signal that the worst of the beer virus & financial crash is over...
Trump said last night they are pondering ending the shutdown at the conclusion of 15 days. The cost (in lives) of a non existent US economy is far greater than an invisible virus. Probably has a lot to do with the optimism.
 

Scorpio

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which 15 days,

with the now 9 that are already passed, or another 15?
 

Scorpio

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fyi, disconnect in futures vs kitco cash

futures holding the gains in gold while spot is way off the highs,

silver holding up pretty consistent between the 2
 

BarnacleBob

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fyi, disconnect in futures vs kitco cash

futures holding the gains in gold while spot is way off the highs,

silver holding up pretty consistent between the 2
Not surprising as the market stabilizes into contango. JMO
 

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Scorpio

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ABC,

I think they are finding this guy to be a fookin' lunatic with zero real world experience,

You don't shut down a $20T economy and expect it to just go back to the way things were,
He is a dumbazz

I have seen some stuff, and BB just confirmed above, tramp gets it too. He knows that putting this economy on ice is ludicrous
 

Someone_else

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If the cruise lines make money from entertaining people who want to spend their cash that way... That's fine with me.

If the cruise lines die in flaming bankruptcy... That's also fine with me.

Bail out the cruise lines? NO. WRONG ANSWER.
 

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Scorpio

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worthless,
wants me to unhook the ad blocker
forbes is dead to me

same as their reporting though, worthless
 

BarnacleBob

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@ Scorp, I just had to post this for you. LOL

Ferengi Rules of Acquisition - Complete List*

 

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Uglytruth

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Empty store shelves had to shock many. It could never happen here. Commies wanting to buy guns are mad because they have a waiting period. Just In time delivery of parts..... that are not available due to supply chain shortages. If this goes on very long there will be raw material shortages to even produce the parts. Exposing the flaws in the system laid bare for everyone to see. Everyone seeing and hopefully understanding there is a cost to "cheap". Can we afford cheap? What will be the global cost of this in both money & lives?

What happens when product starts shipping again? Will packages be decontaminated before being opened then every unit cleaned?
Paranoia has already set in. Will it fade away or only get worse?

I don't think we are in the middle of this I think the unseen will be much worse on a global scale.
 

Scorpio

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BB,

that fits with my hypothesis of the genesis of this whole episode in as the world turns,

as going back now and reviewing a bit, we can also argue that the fed bond market purchases can actually be related to a chin li collapse. In that with a retraction in their economy, and less dollar debt being sucked up by them while the fed continued to spend and spend, someone had to suck this excess liquidity up.

and the real problem being a excess in liquidity, not a lack of. The fed has to issue paper to cover .govs debts, and with chin li seizing up, a known taker of that excess liquidity is off the board.

this either had to be replaced, or the .gov had to decisively cut spending, and in magnitudes that could completely blow up the home economy.

that is why the fed balance sheet is expanding,
 
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Uglytruth

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that is why the fed balance sheet is expanding,
Buyer of last resort........ Global slowdown so everything freezes up.

Will it be easier to unfreeze it (who, why, with what, why) or replace the system and start over?
The digital in the stimulus bill should be an indication of the direction they want to go.

Where does that leave......... EVERYTHING? Assets? Cash? Metal? Businesses? Bankstering? Credit? Payments? Debts? Contracts? etc...
 

Scorpio

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for reference, here is the chin trade data, last few years,

you can see the trade war kicking their azz, imports from them down over $80B in one year, Total trade down over $100B

further guidance to what I claim

us chin trade.jpg
 

Scorpio

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naww, they will fire up a replacement and chin li will continue to send the clueless their barbie dolls,

we also have to consider that we issue depreciating paper. Each day that goes by, that paper is worth less and less as a asset to the purchaser as they have a sunset date on them. A declining asset based on time left to term.
 
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Scorpio

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@ Scorp, I just had to post this for you. LOL

Ferengi Rules of Acquisition - Complete List*

BB, worth the trip for sure,

Be seein' ya on Alpha
 

Scorpio

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part of the problem Ugly is the massive worldwide printing and hemorrhaging by other countries going on

as we also factor in less dollars sent overseas for oil, which compounds the problem,

possibly taking 2 fiat dumping grounds off the chess board for now
 

Scorpio

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stock are up this am again, and this may be the first time in awhile that stocks have had 2 consecutive up days,

that would actually be a sign things are settling down,
 

Scorpio

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silver continues to add to yesterdays gains, while gold is flopping around unchanged to down a few bucks,
 

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for reference, here is the chin trade data, last few years,

you can see the trade war kicking their azz, imports from them down over $80B in one year, Total trade down over $100B

further guidance to what I claim

View attachment 158835
us chin trade.jpg


Note that China exports to the U.S. began peaking in 2017, reaching its apex in 2018, then subsequently beginning to move lower thereafter. Trumps trade sanctions were pure political theatrics... covering up the fact that the U.S. & global economy has been slowing down & moving into recession since peaking in 2018. A slowing Chinese economy & trade would expose the slow down, Trump used disinformation & propaghandized trade sanctions to cover up the fact that the global economy was entering a slump! I suspect the Fed has been monetizing the deficits also...
 

BigJim#1-8

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silver continues to add to yesterdays gains, while gold is flopping around unchanged to down a few bucks,
Palladium is on a rocket again.
 

Strawboss

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View attachment 158915

Note that China exports to the U.S. began peaking in 2017, reaching its apex in 2018, then subsequently beginning to move lower thereafter. Trumps trade sanctions were pure political theatrics... covering up the fact that the U.S. & global economy has been slowing down & moving into recession since peaking in 2018. A slowing Chinese economy & trade would expose the slow down, Trump used disinformation & propaghandized trade sanctions to cover up the fact that the global economy was entering a slump! I suspect the Fed has been monetizing the deficits also...
Makes sense - except for the fact that Trump has been talking about using tariffs against other countries taking advantage of us for 40 years. That makes me think its the result of the tariffs. Either way - its a chicken and egg thing as we will never definitely know one way or the other...
 

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BarnacleBob

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Bill Ackman exits market hedges, uses $2 billion he made to buy more stocks including Hilton

"We believe that the federal government will soon initiate a total-US shutdown with a defined reopening date about 30 days later," Ackman wrote Wednesday. "If the federal government does not impose such a lockdown, we believe it is likely that effectively all fifty states will do so eventually, with the additional delay costing many thousands of more lives, and much greater economic destruction."

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/25...made-to-buy-more-stocks-including-hilton.html
 

Scorpio

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Will,

qball shit doesn't belong in this thread, please take it to where it belongs and get those vids the hell out of here

we have a whole thread devoted to fantasy bullshit,
 

Scorpio

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BB,

yep, as we have discussed so many times over the years, each dollar input creates less and less output. Shoot, you and I were speaking of that 10 15 years ago.

so what is different this time?

so many have called the end as when the ability to create achieves a flat or negative result?
what does that mean?

it means at that point the currency is perceived to have virtually no value.

some persons are calling this the end, time for a reset, a restructure, a new rollout,

fwiw, I think this is but another attempt by them to extend and there is still runway left. What I use for that determination is the lack of real inflation at the retail level. Oh sure, you see some things moving around at various values greater than price indexes, but overall, we are not there.

agreed, a deflationary collapse is the end result, to purge they system of the massive fiat inflation that occurs over time. Yet, on all prior instances, a full out inflationary episode presages the final deflationary melt down.

I just have not seen that as of yet,
 

Strawboss

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fwiw, I think this is but another attempt by them to extend and there is still runway left. What I use for that determination is the lack of real inflation at the retail level. Oh sure, you see some things moving around at various values greater than price indexes, but overall, we are not there.

agreed, a deflationary collapse is the end result, to purge they system of the massive fiat inflation that occurs over time. Yet, on all prior instances, a full out inflationary episode presages the final deflationary melt down.
When Bernacke did all the QE...that was the inflation. The system had already collapsed and the QE reflated it. That inflation blew a bubble in the bond market driving rates to zero and below. The Fed expanded its balance sheet by almost an order of magnitude.

Most of that money never left the financial arena. It stayed in the asset universe. Bonds, stocks, real estate, art, derivatives and all the various synthetic crap. Sure - it trickled down to a certain extent...but not enough to cause wage inflation (because there are so many people out of the labor force as well as all the undocumented workers). Globalization prevented any significant product inflation.

So now - we have an economic collapse ostensibly caused by the virus and they are going to try to inflate the collapsed bubble...again.

The velocity of money has been consistently falling for years - and until that turns up - it would be hard to make an argument for inflation. And with the dollar being the reserve currency - its hard to make the velocity move upwards...because even with the large amount created - much of it leaves the country for other parts of the world. But - now that we have QE to infinity...I guess we are about to find out if that bubble can be blowed up another time.

Last time we were here - we ended up in a world war.
This time - we have already determined who the enemy is (China) and China is already accusing us of infecting them with the virus. Seeds of war...

I wonder which option is better for the man on the street...inflation or deflation...
 

Scorpio

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When Bernacke did all the QE...that was the inflation.
then you don't understand the discussion at all,

the monetary inflation has been going on since this little self depreciating system was created,
been rather consistent over time,

that is different than the retail inflation, which you are trying to conflate the 2, not allowing the very important difference between the 2.

the true definition of inflation is as you state, monetary, but that is a separate issue from retail inflation. The last real episode of real retail inflation in the US was in the 70's or 30-50 years ago now.

but please remember, that episode from 07 was not THE inflation.

There are a great number of deflationary pressures present, and have been present for awhile. Whether computers, robotics, improved manufacturing techniques, etc.

The value of human labor is being marginalized over time, and does play a role in all of this. And this will be a very significant issue some time in the relatively near future. Machines being able to produce/create at greater productivity than humans could ever achieve.

Anyone ever watched 'how its made'? What a wonderful example of that which we speak to. Amazing creations of machines by man to produce anywhere from paint cans to washing machines to automobiles, all with less and less human input.

To me, these disruptions are directly related to a clash in systems, as the monetary, human, and machine needs and capabilities all do battle on the ballet dance floor.
 

Weatherman

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When you guys talk about deflation, how do you define it? My definition is being able to purchase more stuff per unit of money. So long as the US$ is fiat that the FED can produce in unlimited quantity without cost, I contend that deflation is impossible. While deflation would reduce the mount of tax receipts the government would take in, the costs to government would rise substantially and government would not be able to finance its obscene debt. I had a "debate" with Rick Ackerman about deflation. My view started like this:

Deflation may well have been the most powerful force in the financial world, but that was back in the 1930s when the quantity of money available was limited to the gold and silver in the treasury. The fiat paper most people now call money has no intrinsic quantity limits except the restraint the Fed imposes on itself. The Fed now has the ability to insure the economy will not have a fiat paper shortage which could result in a deflationary spiral.

We can agree that depression is inevitable due to very high levels of debt and the continuing loss of solid manufacturing jobs. Unlimited availability of fiat, however, now makes deflation an optional choice by the Fed. Deflation will occur only if the Fed decides to let it happen (or if an abrupt catastrophic financial accident overtakes their ability to respond in a timely manner). For so long as deflation is not considered to be politically correct by the Fed and the power structure in Washington, it is far more prudent to invest against the inflation devil we are sure about than the deflation devil which may only be an illusion.
The full debate is at: http://sitekreator.com/Optimist/debating.html
 

Scorpio

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this is your 'inflation' referred to,
there was no special event, no hyper inflationary event in 07
all propaganda

united-states-money-supply-m2.png
 

Scorpio

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it is far more prudent to invest against the inflation devil we are sure about than the deflation devil which may only be an illusion.

-----------------

you stated this above, but refer to the chart posted, monetary inflation over time,
it is systemic and is part of this whole fiat mirage,
a very important component of it,

to fight inflation is the very definition of fighting the base premise of the system that has been created.

deflation is the enemy per Kondratieffs cycles, as it leads to massive upheaval and societal unrest as everything needs to be reorganized and repriced.

recessions and depressions are the result of deflation, not inflation

that amerikan standard of living? compliments to you of a system built on inflation at all cost.
 

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this is your 'inflation' referred to,
there was no special event, no hyper inflationary event in 07
all propaganda
Bond markets the world over (both government and commercial) have absorbed trillions and trillions of dollars to the point where interest rates have gone below zero.

So - now the Fed has no choice but to buy any and all bonds at full price from any and all sellers in order to keep interest rates pegged at zero.

If China wanted to dump its trillion in Treasuries tomorrow - the Fed would pay full price for every last one of them.
If USgov needs $6 trillion for a bailout - the Fed will provide the money. In other words - the Feds balance sheet will be whatever size it needs to be.

That eventuality was cast in stone by the 2007 crisis. It just didnt reveal itself in a readily apparent fashion...although there were many at the time that spoke of the moral hazard...liquidity traps and all the rest...

The very nature of the system is to continuously inflate or die...

Having said that - I do understand your perspective which is essentially the 07 monetary inflation was perhaps larger than usual - but all in all just a continuation of what is matter of course anyways...and this go round might just be the next iteration...until the one after that, etc...

Another facet of this which I think someone mentioned is the consumer being maxed out...credit cards maxed - garage full of useless junk, 4 cars in the driveway, etc...
 

Scorpio

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When you guys talk about deflation, how do you define it? My definition is being able to purchase more stuff per unit of money.
again weather, depends on what you refer to, as your comment refers to retail but doesn't account for monetary,

monetary deflation is a retraction of monetary supply,
if money supply increases 3% and decreases to 1%, there is still inflation, but less than previous,
true deflation would be decreasing or negative supply 3% to -1%,
and that can't happen or things seize up

everything is based on inflation and leverage or gearing.