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Scorpio

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fyi

dollar attempting to break 90 to the down again,

last time it bounced back up for awhile, resulting in metals getting pummeled,

this time, both metals are kickin' it to the up, and the dollar is trying to hold serve, but it is under 90 currently and a close there could spell more downside action there,

oil is acting like the dollar is going to keep going down, up big today on the petro dollar flop, lower dollar higher oil, or higher dollar lower oil

hidin' has really f@#$% things up in very short order

that below 90 is a big deal, as you will be paying more for everything,
strong dollar allows us to screw the world out of their goods on the cheap,
lower dollar means those barbie dolls just got more 'spensive
 

Bottom Feeder

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Speakin of payin more...

My brother-in-law works on the fishing boat out of alaska. He boards here in seattle after a two week (paid) quarantine. The company pays for that two weeks — food & lodging.

So... last month he missed his boat. But it was lucky he did, because after one week at sea the boat had to return with with a half dozen covid sick crew. The company takes another hit with ship in and out, and now they have to pay for the entire crew's medical costs.

BIL says their solution is a three week quarantine before going aboard.

Hope y'all don't like seafood a lot, looks like it might be a little more expensive.
 

solarion

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Long term, the buck has been slightly biased upward since the housing market meltdown in '08. Short term it just looks too tired to fight other fiat crap effectively. With the price of money ticking higher(1.354 on 10y debt), I'd bet on the buck to continue the long term uptrend vs less pretty garbage...if at a snail's pace.

Hard to say with that nasty usurper in charge though. ...oh yeah and biden is yucky too.
 

Scorpio

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fyi, the dollar did close 1 tick below 90 yesterday,
but promptly jumped back over in the overnight and into this am

from the attached, you can see where a attempt was made a bit ago, then a bounce back over 91, then the next slide to give it another shot at punching thru to the down

whole lot of people are predicting strong dollar in the near term,
don't know why that is, but they are


daily

2.png


weekly

1.png
 

solarion

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whole lot of people are predicting strong dollar in the near term,
don't know why that is, but they are
Perhaps an equity market crash causes many to flee to "safety" + higher rates. Trouble in the zero zone that needs to be papered over.

Markets ceased to make much sense long ago.
 

solarion

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10y yields rocketing higher. Pretty soon we'll be looking at some real selling.

1614180990119.png


Well that escalated quickly...

1614184924279.png


Meanwhile the metals were set for a solid opening, until the chicongo/new york pre-market paper peddlers at the crimex smashed them again.

1614185069565.png
 
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Scorpio

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dollar finally breaking thru 90,
it kept trying to hold above it,

and now this am down to 89.70 and down 47

the most recent low before the bounce was about 89.24

gold isn't joining in with silver as silver moves up and gold down 6
 

solarion

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Gold's behavior is really strange of late. Some days everything metallic moves up, while the dollar declines, and still gold naps. Comex is seeing brisk deliveries of gold @ > 3.6m ounces this month, and supply is tight, but it just doesn't seem to want to participate.

Silver is just now getting it's daily pre-market NY beating, erasing any gains it had overnight...as usual. Pushed right back under 28 for about the 100th time. Meanwhile the disparity between spot and physical continues to increase. Bulk silver products(100 oz and kilo bars) at the large online vendors are completely sold out and have been for days, premiums are high and increasing, but spot languishes.

...and yields on the 10y note are surging again...now at 1.465%.

Never have I seen such an obvious divergence in relative strength between the two former monetary metals. Gold catches a beat down and just lays there bleeding, but silver is full of piss and vinegar.

1614266021430.png


Gold now down another 1.25% even while the buck is getting hammered. If it's not a buy in here after consolidating for six months. That thing needs to be put back into the ground. lol
 
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solarion

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Interestingly, it's gold and not silver that's leaving the crimex in record quantity this delivery month...even while gold sentiment, according to wall street, is atrocious. No gold! ...absolutely do not get into gold! It's horrible! ...except who's taking delivery of these millions of ounces of gold this month?

https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsYTDReport.pdf

They hammer the paper price down, tell you that stacking barbaric relics in here is the worst idea since ideas were invented...all the while they're stacking the quintessential "barbaric relic" hand over fist.
 

Scorpio

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we have spoken of the dislocations repeatedly and here we are again,

dollar was down hard this am, and gold was down, then dollar recovered back over 90 and gold and silver both got hit,
so that part balanced,

yet, here is afternoon, stocks are getting hit, yet so are bond prices ie yields up. Typical market action has the bonds going up as a flight to safety when stocks are getting hit. Not so yet again today.

As we have stated, so many of these supposed 'normal' relationships just aren't in play. Everything is totally fluid these days. What was certainly no longer 'is'.

Now sure, 1 day does not make a trend, and yes bond prices have been going down while stocks continued to rise. So we see if bond prices continue to sink along with stocks or if it is but another aberration

For over 3 decades we have been watching this inverted relationship of stocks vs bonds.
 

andial

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stocks are getting hit, yet so are bond prices ie yields up. Typical market action has the bonds going up as a flight to safety when stocks are getting hit. Now sure, 1 day does not make a trend, and yes bond prices have been going down while stocks continued to rise. So we see if bond prices continue to sink along with stocks or if it is but another aberration

For over 3 decades we have been watching this inverted relationship of stocks vs bonds.
"Stocks prices going down because traders are watching bond prices going down, ie yields up."
Yogi Berra
 

solarion

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Not sure what happened today, but it felt like something broke. That something was likely in the bond market. I heard a blogger suggest there was a failure to liquidate 7yr paper, that the fed had to hoover up over 40% of the toxic debt. With inflation ticking up, even if Powell calls it "soft", and trillions more in funny munny on the way, I don't see how anyone thinks the debt markets are a good option.

Then apparently there was some divine intervention in the currency markets, as I saw the buck over half a point down for the day...only to close up. Metals got killed all day, and it made zero difference what was going on with the buck, equities, or debt markets. Frankly today felt very 17 November 2008ish, with the metals taken to the woodshed with everything else...because reasons. I think we all know what happened to the metals next, and I suspect the same is about to happen in here.

No matter the scenario, it seems to me physical metals are going to win. The system is broken, and the fed has only one arrow left in the quiver. They'll print, even more than they already are while trying to talk markets off the ledge.

1614295661761.png
 
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solarion

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Controlled demolition of the world economy. Controlled demolition of the metals markets...which is of course where people would flee for safety.

1614319066986.png
 

Scorpio

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so we get up this am and the dollar has bounced yet again,
up 42 to 90.56

with bonds finally catching a bid for one day

meanwhile metals get the hammer,

and stocks have no follow thru from yesterdays minor sell

here are the prices on bonds, followed by the 'yield' chart ie rates on 30 yr,
you can see how this would change the housing market dramatically re affordability

oversold as the sell off has been relentless,
for mort rates, darn near a full % higher just since Oct last


30 yr.png


30 y.png
 

Scorpio

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3.0% Interest
a 30 year mort,
325,000 pay, 20% down,
1096.17 monthly

4.0% interest
a 30 year mort,
325,000 pay, 20% down,
1241.28

so the monthly just went up 150 bucks for the rate increase alone

Now lets say you are maxed at that 1096/mth
ie cannot do 1241 by the ratios,

Then it simply means, your affordability just went from 325k down to 287,500
and you still have to come up with over 57k in down

point is, that house price to sell just got a haircut on price of over 35,000 just on the interest alone variable
 

BackwardsEngineeer

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Scorp,
If they stall the new construction, home remodel engine we are screwed... it is about the only thing keeping it all chugging. Your absolutely correct on your calculations, but we have inflated the price levels and set the bar high. We drop back 10% at the same time .gov is raising ad velour and insurance companies piling it on to cover the big freeze, we might re educate a whole new group on the thrills of property ownership. I have been begging and pleading investors to dump into this spike but they keep telling I'm dumb...

Time will tell....
 

solarion

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Bitcoin is again...apparently the only asset relatively free of bankster manipulation. It has been in a correction after a 350% runnup and bounce off 60k, but while negative this morning, it has since rocketed upward, erasing any losses and gaining ground(+2%) while the paper metal "prices" are again being smashed to dust...which will effectively raise premiums on physical as "spot" drops as a percentage of total bullion purchases.

Premiums on physical metal were already at or near historic highs, and this is just making them effectively higher with silver bullion premiums over 19%, platinum premiums pushing 9%, and gold premiums over 4%. The physical and paper prices are clearly diverging as the not dumb among us recognize the importance of rushing into assets outside the collapsing US dollar system...even if bankster want you to do otherwise.

The nasdaq up sharply while the dow drops is rather amusing. Likely a dead cat bounce in techs after yesterday's bloodbath.