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- Dec 16, 2019
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let's throw around some ideas/facts
massive fiat injections worldwide,
prices of many things flying to the up,
crypts have already been on a heckuva run
crude has been on a non-stop run since last year this time
lumber of course you have seen, but is showing a top
coffee is still getting after it, last time coffee ran it went to like 225 or so
even 'ole orange juice is joining the party, those blips you see are limit moves
anyway, much as big money boyz moved from one country to another, leaving a trail of woe in their rear view mirror back in the later 90's,
we are kind of seeing the same thing here,
there has been so much fiat creation that it is out chasing yield, running markets and leaving a heap of destruction behind,
and make no mistake, those lumber prices are a whole lot of demand destruction
but more importantly, banks are telling the big boyz NO MAS'
they don't want their cash,
corporations/hedgies/all the rest of the thieves have no choice but to keep the illusion alive,
they have to sell the dream, ie yields forever
so these commods are part of this all, and are getting run, in some cases run hard
inflation is here, and in quite dramatic fashion. Showing up in many areas of the economy, as well as supply destruction.
No romex on the shelves, no TP on the shelves, etc. Supply completely disrupted.
One may want to step back and give this a bit of time. Where do they move next? What is the result of this? How does it impact you?
For one, a argument could be made that eventually there will be a run in metals. One item to consider, it is one area they can run, and run hard without regard for affecting input costs. With copper, they run it, costs go up on many products. Coffee, again they have to push the cost on to the consumer. Etc.
The metals have been doing quite well overall. Had a heckuva nice run last year, and one could argue front ran this commod movement.
Yet, the dollar is holding on for dear life at that 90 level. Some are saying the dollar is going higher, while clearly if this thing finally breaks 90 and stays down, things are going to get real interesting. And quite so in the metals markets, bond markets, and stock markets.
With the poli's asking for yet another massive stimulus, there seems to be no slowing the fiat train.
Leaving us to ask, is there a way to front run what comes next?
Whether one likes it or not, cash is trash in this type of environment as the losses get quite significant in a years time.
To protect yourself and your family one is going to have to pay attention and do something about it.
For me, a very real puzzle, is how much cash to keep around for the "what-if's".