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BackwardsEngineeer

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As much as I would like to pollyanna and ostrich this next couple of phases, multiple trains are loaded to the max, broke free and rolling toward the switching yard. This is obviously the real power elite, throwing a typical two year old style temper tantrum, hell bent on blowing up the whole thing simultaneously. The have jaw boned deflation as the ultimate worst case ending but having seen many things crushed inward, while cool to watch not that impressive. Now expansion to destruction, that can be one epic fireworks show. So with avoiding deflation as the goal, we have sought inflation on all fronts and told everyone don't worry the fed's got it covered. It's insanity and isn't even noticed by 95% of the populace. Random thoughts:

Buy it now, you have space? you have cash? Buy the items you use x5, go through your used products buy tp, buy meds, buy oil for car, extra mower blades. We have are doing a daily analysis of anything we might need in the next 3 years and buying it now and buying extra to give to someone else.. pull up that old list the 100 things needed most in Sarajevo, its on the end times websites

Cash on hand is rapidly depreciating asset, keep cash on hand anyway, 5k, 10k, 20k if you can... more risk being caught cashless than the cash being worthless

Stay fit, lose the extra pounds and gently regain your best you for whatever stage of the game your in... health is the big equalizer.. tai chi is amazing, gentle and synchronizing

This is huge... accept that you're going to have less.. every year from here on out.
Less service, more self checkout,
Less choices, when you buy, when you fix and when you eat
Less quality, as products vanish quality is the trade off
For most overall less standard of living

The biggest thing is the mental preparation, rest and quiet is more important than most anything we can do, the rarest commodities going forward will be peace of mind, patience and general contentment
 

Uglytruth

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Is the rising market a way to keep up with inflation or a trap to sucker more people into putting sitting money into their system for fear of missing out only to be harvested at a later date? Seems the ever rising market is similar to bitcoin hysteria.

Takes a LOT of discipline to sit tight and hold metals, cash, prep or wait.............

With inflation running high where will the extra money come from when necessities consume the extra? .

Kinda like the $15 minimum wage. Why not raise it to $50 hr as it's not helping the poor but slowly eroding those making more than minimum wage. All the while .gov gets their extra % of that money. Don't forget the kenyans recovery was service industry jobs & we just had a year to see how they are not important and can be turned off at a moments notice.
 

coopersmith

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For me, a very real puzzle, is how much cash to keep around for the "what-if's".
I like a years worth of fiat, and 5 yrs of property taxes held in 90%.............
 

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Its freaking go time at Davys house. Liquidating all our "crap" (sold the extra kitchen table today for $200) and getting our house on the market within the month. Will be moving into the triplex rental July 1st. This will buy us some time to figure out if its get out into the country or leave the state.

Been picking up all the HVAC parts new and used I can. Got a U hall truck of Honeywell parts coming at the end of the month. All new in box and only paid $4000. Also working on another large shipment of refrigerant and parts. My HVAC parts stock is really starting to move. With the supply issue at wholesale houses people are moving on line and I'm making some pretty sweet repeat customers outside of the bay.


Everything we have been talking about for the past 20 years is coming home to roost. Get ready and don't put it off! Shit is getting real. Everybody with half a sense is moving out of or thinking about moving out of Minneapolis. Two people I ran into while working last week are moving out of the state.
 
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WillA2

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Its freaking go time at Davys house. Liquidating all our "crap" (sold the extra kitchen table today for $200) and getting our house on the market within the month. Will be moving into the triplex rental July 1st. This will buy us some time to figure out if its get out into the country or leave the state.

Been picking up all the HVAC parts new and used I can. Got a U hall truck of Honeywell parts coming at the end of the month. All new in box and only paid $4000. Also working on another large shipment of refrigerant and parts. My HVAC parts stock is really starting to move. With the supply issue at wholesale houses people are moving on line and I'm making some pretty sweet repeat customers outside of the bay.


Everything we have been talking about for the past 20 years is coming home to roost. Get ready and don't put it off! Shit is getting real. Everybody with half a sense is moving out of or thinking about moving out of Minneapolis. Two people I ran into while working last week are moving out of the state.

Be careful. Major firms buying realestate like crazy, driving up the prices in the housing market. I would hold off on sale until you have made your decision and have located a suitable replacement wherever you're going.
 

madhu

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When the body encounters a virus/vaccine , it produces both neutralizing antibodies as well as antibody dependent enhancement of other similar viruses in a future encounter. Shingles , chicken pox virus deactivation is a side effect of COVID vaccination, probably because , antibodies that are not neutralizing are also produced in the body and actually facilitate the transmisson of other viruses. This is also a known fact with dengue virus and the vaccination debacle in Philippines a few years ago.. That means if you get dengue vaccine, it sure does protect against the same strain of. Dengue, but worsen Zika virus infection


This might explain why variants of covid are creating havoc in vaccinated individuals and explain the huge surge of cases in India.
 

davycoppitt

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Be careful. Major firms buying realestate like crazy, driving up the prices in the housing market. I would hold off on sale until you have made your decision and have located a suitable replacement wherever you're going.

What we really don't fully know yet is what does a loss of 20,30,40,50% of commercial real estate tenants mean. All I do is go from commercial building to commercial building for my work in HVAC. Most buildings are at 10-20% occupied right now and some are even at 0. I keep hearing the same thing. They are not coming back they are working from home indefinitely. The ones I do talk to that are coming back are not happy about it. Two people I talk to are moving out of MN because their company is forcing them to come back into the office in downtown Minneapolis and they do not feel safe there. They will still be working for the same companies just transferring locations. Most tenants that are not coming back are just waiting for their lease to expire. With not working in an office means they can work from anywhere and will start spreading out. I personally see the collapse of large cities. The trick to be to find out where they will be relocating and get there first.

A large HVAC shop a few weeks ago laid off over 50% of their construction crew. 3 of the 5 large construction jobs they had lined up for the summer got canceled due to material costs and uncertainty about the need for these projects. These were multimillion dollar projects.
 
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Uglytruth

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Old slow moving area of NW Ohio rust belt. Small towns have empty everything. Older homes that need a lot of $ put into them. Old stores sitting empty. Some falling down or being demolished. Very little new being built except big business.
 

Hystckndle

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Steel Market Update : NOTE: PDF at bottom, also posted here as JPEGs

Steel  Mkt Update 6-11-21 Dr. E_Page_01.jpg
Steel  Mkt Update 6-11-21 Dr. E_Page_02.jpg
Steel  Mkt Update 6-11-21 Dr. E_Page_11.jpg
Steel  Mkt Update 6-11-21 Dr. E_Page_12.jpg
Steel  Mkt Update 6-11-21 Dr. E_Page_03.jpg
Steel  Mkt Update 6-11-21 Dr. E_Page_04.jpg
Steel  Mkt Update 6-11-21 Dr. E_Page_05.jpg
Steel  Mkt Update 6-11-21 Dr. E_Page_06.jpg
Steel  Mkt Update 6-11-21 Dr. E_Page_07.jpg
Steel  Mkt Update 6-11-21 Dr. E_Page_08.jpg
Steel  Mkt Update 6-11-21 Dr. E_Page_09.jpg
Steel  Mkt Update 6-11-21 Dr. E_Page_10.jpg
 

Attachments

  • Steel Mkt Update 6-11-21 Dr. E.pdf
    1.4 MB · Views: 6

Scorpio

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fyi stck,

those previous year comparisons are complete poppycock,

to compare honestly, then need to compare month to month to 2019, and see what that looks like to get a real gauge of things
 

Hystckndle

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fyi stck,

those previous year comparisons are complete poppycock,

to compare honestly, then need to compare month to month to 2019, and see what that looks like to get a real gauge of things

Or even go back and do a YOY for 3 or 4 or 5 years.


Getting a few of these kind of flyer thingees from all manner of majors.
All of the map.
And it ain t like you can actually buy anything for future delivery after tomorrow or the next.
Pricing down here is good until noon.
Copper THHN etc up almost 10% from last week.
 

Hystckndle

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fyi stck,

those previous year comparisons are complete poppycock,

to compare honestly, then need to compare month to month to 2019, and see what that looks like to get a real gauge of things

Get one of these about every 2 weeks also.
Cannot keep up with it.
Gotta enlarge it to see it as I saved the excell sheet to fit one PDF page.
Every commod number in my system is FUBAR ATM.
 

Attachments

  • Price Increase Email 061421.pdf
    108.9 KB · Views: 7

Scorpio

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whatever the 2 bits at the fed stated,

gold didn't care for it, dropping like a rock out of a airplane

crypts started this pitty party early, been under hard pressure all day, long before the fed nattering away
 

the_shootist

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whatever the 2 bits at the fed stated,

gold didn't care for it, dropping like a rock out of a airplane

crypts started this pitty party early, been under hard pressure all day, long before the fed nattering away
cause I just completed a silver bullion buy this morning but will still buy this dip too.

The story of my life.

One of these times the beat down of metals will be followed by a steady and uncontrolled climb into the stratosphere ...or so I'm told
 

Scorpio

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The story of my life.

know that feeling,

what a bunch of crap,

trap you into their offerings, and if not, then there will be hay to pay with your funds,

inflation absolutely screaming, and metals take a shit because some dimwit at the fed proclaims it is nothing to get excited about
 

Scorpio

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missed it, but it looks like gold bounced off the 200 dma, and rose into the close
stalling all of that selling from the feds

sc.png
 

MrLucky

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How bad is the metal shortage? Bad.

I work for a metal fabricator. It's real bad. We are being told by our suppliers that they are having a hard time getting their orders filled. Hence, we are not getting our orders filled either. Examples:

1. There is only one mill in the US that supplies a certain type of metal shape. They told us that they cannot get any of that size until at least August and they don't know what the price will be then either.

2. Another mill, for a different shape, told us none until July for one size, and none until Sept for another size. And they weren't confident either.

We have orders in-house for equipment that we can't make because we can't get the material to make it. It's really F'd up out there.
 

Scorpio

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yeah MrL, it is widespread for sure,

charts were showing some recovery in metals, but on the evening open, they plunged right back down to where they were, as if the half baked recovery never happened,

was wondering how I could have missed it, well, there wasn't one
 

the_shootist

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Scorpio

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disregard, you can see on the chart where it spiked back up into the close,
only to get its ass kicked on the evening open, right back down to where it was near the close

here is a more proper looking chart from today,

gold.jpg
 

Scorpio

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Fed sees earlier time frame for rate hikes with inflation up​

June 16, 2021 at 11:07 am Updated June 16, 2021 at 3:21 pm

By
CHRISTOPHER RUGABER
The Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve signaled Wednesday that it may act sooner than previously planned to start dialing back the low-interest-rate policies that have helped fuel a swift rebound from the pandemic recession but have also coincided with rising inflation.
The Fed’s policymakers forecast that they would raise their benchmark short-term rate — which affects many consumer and business loans, including mortgages and credit cards — twice by late 2023. They had previously estimated that no rate hike would occur before 2024.
At a news conference, Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed’s policymaking committee also began discussing when to reduce its monthly bond purchases. But Powell made clear that the Fed has yet to decide when it will do so. The purchases, which consist of $120 billion in Treasury and mortgage bonds, are intended to keep longer-term rates low to encourage borrowing.
The Fed has made clear that its first step in slowing its support for the economy will be to pare its bond purchases — and that it would begin to raise rates only sometime after that. Its key rate has been pinned near zero since March 2020.
The central bank’s new forecast for rate hikes starting in 2023 reflects an economy that’s achieving faster progress than was expected earlier this year.
At the same time, Powell sought Wednesday to dispel any concerns that the Fed might be in a hurry to withdraw its economic support by making borrowing more expensive. The economy, he said, still hasn’t improved enough to reduce the pace of the monthly bond purchases, which the Fed has said it intends to continue until “substantial further progress” has been made toward its employment and inflation goals.
“We are a ways away from substantial further progress, we think,” Powell said at his news conference. “But we are making progress.”
Soon after the Fed issued its statement Wednesday, U.S. stocks fell further from their record highs, and bond yields rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose from 1.48% to 1.55%.
Sung Won Sohn, an economist at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles, suggested that the markets’ initially negative reaction to the Fed’s statement might have caused Powell to take a more dovish tone at his news conference. (“Doves,” in Fed parlance, typically focus on the Fed’s mandate to maximize employment and worry less about inflation. “Hawks,” by contrast, tend to concern themselves more with the need to prevent high inflation.)
“We got two different messages from the Fed today,” Sohn said. “The interest rate projections were a bit more hawkish than the market expected.”
But at his news conference, Sohn said, Powell “emphasized that the economy is still not where it should be, especially in terms of unemployment …. and the Fed still thinks the economy needs stimulus from the central bank.”
Still, Powell also sketched an overall optimistic picture in his remarks Wednesday. The inflation spikes of the past two months, he said, will likely prove temporary, and hiring should accelerate through summer and into the fall as COVID-19 recedes further with increased vaccinations. That will allow schools and day care centers to reopen, which will enable more parents to work, while supplemental federal aid for the jobless ends.
“There is every reason,” Powell said, “to think that we will (soon) be in a labor market with very attractive numbers, with low unemployment, high participation and rising wages across the spectrum.”
His comments suggested that the Fed chair isn’t concerned that hiring this spring, while solid, has fallen shy of forecasts. Powell had said in early spring that he would want to see a “string” of hiring reports showing about 1 million added jobs each month. The job market has yet to reach that total in any month this year, though employers have posted a record-high number of open jobs
At the same time, inflation has shot up much faster than the Fed’s policymakers had forecast in March. Inflation jumped to 5% in May compared with a year earlier — the largest 12-month spike since 2008.

The increase was driven partly by a huge rise in used car prices, which have soared as shortages of semiconductors have slowed vehicle production. Sharply higher prices for car rentals, airline tickets, and hotel rooms were also major factors, reflecting pent-up demand as consumers shift away from the large goods purchases many of them had made while stuck at home to spending on services.
Powell stuck with his long-standing view that those spikes will have only a temporary impact.
“The prices that are driving higher inflation are from categories that are being directly affected by the recovery from the pandemic and the reopening of the economy,” he said. “Prices that have moved up really quickly because of the shortages and bottlenecks and the like, they should stop going up. And at some point, they in some cases should actually go down.”
The central bank on Wednesday raised its forecast for inflation to 3.4% by the end of this year, from 2.4% in its previous projection in March. Yet the officials foresee price increases remaining tame in the following two years.
Fed officials also expect the economy to grow 7% this year, which would be the fastest calendar-year expansion since 1984. They project that growth will slow after that, to 3.3% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023.
Economists generally expect the Fed to continue discussing tapering its bond purchases and then — by late August or September — to outline specifically how and when it would begin. That would set the stage for a reduction in bond purchases to actually begin near the end of this year or in early 2022.

 

Voodoo

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What we really don't fully know yet is what does a loss of 20,30,40,50% of commercial real estate tenants mean. All I do is go from commercial building to commercial building for my work in HVAC. Most buildings are at 10-20% occupied right now and some are even at 0. I keep hearing the same thing. They are not coming back they are working from home indefinitely. The ones I do talk to that are coming back are not happy about it. Two people I talk to are moving out of MN because their company is forcing them to come back into the office in downtown Minneapolis and they do not feel safe there. They will still be working for the same companies just transferring locations. Most tenants that are not coming back are just waiting for their lease to expire. With not working in an office means they can work from anywhere and will start spreading out. I personally see the collapse of large cities. The trick to be to find out where they will be relocating and get there first.

A large HVAC shop a few weeks ago laid off over 50% of their construction crew. 3 of the 5 large construction jobs they had lined up for the summer got canceled due to material costs and uncertainty about the need for these projects. These were multimillion dollar projects.

I was just in downtown. The people that were there were super nice and not nearly as "unstable" as I may have expected. But I didn't stay out at night very much. I was surprised by how quiet downtown was even as Monday workday started. Almost no where to go out and get a drink even available..
 

davycoppitt

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I was just in downtown. The people that were there were super nice and not nearly as "unstable" as I may have expected. But I didn't stay out at night very much. I was surprised by how quiet downtown was even as Monday workday started. Almost no where to go out and get a drink even available..
Probably passed ya. Was there all day today and yesterday. Still good people there. It’s just if you spend enough time there you really start to see it. It’s just mind blowing at how few people are there during a work day. Where leaving after work use to be a nightmare you just fly home.
 

WillA2

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disregard, you can see on the chart where it spiked back up into the close,
only to get its ass kicked on the evening open, right back down to where it was near the close

here is a more proper looking chart from today,

View attachment 214419

Well, my to-do list.
Get new roof on house.
Buy gold while in dip.
 

Scorpio

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Smith & Wesson up 17% last I heard,

profits way up,
declared 60% increase in dividends,
declared $50M stock buyback program

Sounds like a company with a pretty strong book of work,

Hmmm,

So what happened to Colt? Remington?

going tits up in the midst of a roaring bull market for your products is declaration on mgt, not on the products or employees
 

Scorpio

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KEY TAKEAWAYS​

  • Like any business organization, the Federal Reserve maintains a balance sheet listing its assets and liabilities.
  • The Fed's assets include various Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities purchased in the open market and loans made to banks.
  • Liabilities for the Fed include currency in circulation and bank reserves held at commercial banks.
  • During economic crises, the Fed can expand its balance sheet by buying more assets, such as bonds—called quantitative easing (QE).


Why the market cares​

Here's why you've seen this subject in the news so much recently. While the ultimate goal is to shed trillions from the balance sheet, it's extremely important to the overall economy that it happen in a controlled and careful manner.


The Fed can't simply sell off trillions of dollars' worth of assets at once without causing economic ripples. Doing so would flood the market with Treasuries and other fixed-income securities and could threaten the overall stability of the economy. Just as the purchase of securities by the Fed helped inject money into the economy -- a form of stimulus -- the reduction of the balance sheet is essentially taking money out of the economy.

While the economy was steadily improving, lowering the asset total made good financial sense. But indicators in early 2019 show the economy may be starting to cool off. There's widespread concern that continuing to wind down the balance sheet could make any economic slowdown worse and could even throw the U.S. into recession.
 
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JayDubya

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Fed balance sheet above $8 trillion...
Fed balance sheet increased over 1000% since 2002...
I'm not a financial genius, I struggle with a lot of things. But I do understand some basics, I get velocity of money and things like that but I have a very difficult time trying to really understand how one can create all that money and not have some serious repercussions.
Then, my mind takes it another step further and I imagine how does one remove that much money without some major repercussions as well.
I run various scenarios through my head and none of them end well.
 
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madhu

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The easy money that is generated through illegal activities such as drugs and other services has to be laundered into legit economy. All that extra trillions floating around will have to find a place to park. When recession /depression in economic activity happens all the easy money disappears initially. The end result is that legit business are run like a mafia entity with no worker rights and shoddy work conditions.
The feds creating trillions of dollars has created a stock market bubbles, real estate bubbles, and everything is becoming expensive. Who is going to buy these assets at inflated prices? The Japanese?. You need. A fictitious buyer from Bahamas to bail this Too big to fail entity.
The mandrake mechanism where all this extra money disappears is at a time and place of the feds choice. The problem is that all the municipalities, small towns ,cities are running on the elevated property taxes from the real estate bubble. How is that real estate bubble going to be deflated?
Commercial real estate, unless they can repurpose and reuse it for some other activity?
 

BarnacleBob

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In an EV, there is no internal combustion engine, fuel tank, or fuel pumps. ... In fact, according to Tesla, their drivetrain only has about 17 moving parts compared to the 200 or so in a typical drivetrain for an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle.

 

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This article, and by association the DOE, is so dishonest...
"According to the Department of Energy (DOE), in an EV, about 59-62 percent of the electrical energy from the grid goes to turning the wheels, whereas gas combustion vehicles only convert about 17-21 percent of energy from burning fuel into moving the car. This means that an electric vehicle is roughly three times as efficient as an ICE vehicle."

No mention of the efficiency of first converting coal or whatever into electricity. Even if that were included it wouldn't surprise me if the electric vehicle still won, but they have to lie by omission anyway. It's just their nature I guess.