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Eat Beef

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Eat Beef

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silver leading today,

so far + 4.8%

gold + 1.4%

Silver/Gold Ratio started the day at 63.64

currently at 61.55

silver still has some catching up to do to match golds recent strength


Heck of a strong move.

Moreso when you consider it's Friday and it comes on top of what was already a decent move.

We're already outside the Bolis on a daily, and into mild resistance, I expect it to ease up a few days then run.
 

Eat Beef

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My worry is that it (silver) gaps up into resistance Sunday night.

If that happens it will get hammered Monday morning, maybe just enough to flat line it a couple of days, or maybe enough to beat it back down below $20ish and make this look like a bull trap...
 

phideaux

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Silver smelled like a big short squeeze today. Big buying right into the close.

Sunday night should be interesting.

I agree Scorp, it could run to $25 without the mainstream even noticing.

Then we'll see.
 

phideaux

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And if the USD breaks 80, (closed at 80.15), it may signal a further move towards 79, then looooook ouuuuut beeeelowwwww...

history.gif
 

itsamess

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Hey, what's your prediction? I haven't seen anything but a chart and a statement that doesn't correlate with the chart.

My prediction is that we don't get a 47% haircut in the down by April 1, 2 or 15. I'll go further and say no Dow under, say 11k by then.

What's your concrete prediction?

For what it is worth and in the interest of honest analysis here is an alternative article

Consensus on ‘scary’ 1929 chart: Enough already, it’s not happening


That said there is also an interesting update regarding Soros and major upping his position in bear S&P SPY

Soros doubles a bearish bet on the S&P 500, to the tune of $1.3 billion
Again in sake of full disclosure,this filing is 6 weeks old.

Still think April 15 is important date and I don't mean for taxes. Time will tell. Now please don't get all unhappy, life is too short.
 

itsamess

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Another article about potential market "direction"-

US stock market-to-GDP ratio favored by Warren Buffett points to imminent 50% crash

Whenever the Sage of Omaha is pushed on how he judges whether the US stock market is trading too high or too low he refers to the ratio between the value of US stocks and GDP as a reliable guage of where the market stands.

Analyst Doug Short has a version of the ‘Warren Buffett Indicator’ which uses the value of the Wilshire 5,000, a very broad index. It shows that stocks are more expensive than they were before the 2008 crash and almost as expensive as they were before the dot-com crash in 2000.

50% crash

Warren Buffett is not exactly shouting it from the roof tops but his favorite indicator is pointing to an imminent 50 per cent crash in US stocks. The main indexes are all far too high. You don’t need to be a genius like Warren Buffett to see it...

link
 

phideaux

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Scorp, can you put bonds and gold on the same chart? Looks like a very strong correlation,
 
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phideaux

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Again, big buying comes to support 80 on the USD. One of these days, it won't hold, and then loookkkk ouuuttt beeeelowwwww...

intraday.gif
 

Ahillock

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Again, big buying comes to support 80 on the USD. One of these days, it won't hold, and then loookkkk ouuuttt beeeelowwwww...

intraday.gif

Exchange Stabilization Fund team doing its job. :beer1:
 

dpong

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Here is a close-up (ST) chart of Gold price vs. 30 year bond PRICE. This close-up shows gold's recent outperformance of the bond price. On a longer term chart gold's turn-around is not quite apparent yet. But when gold price outperforms bond prices, a bull can begin to gallop. Makes sense.
 

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dpong

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Here is a longer-term chart of POG vs. 10 year bond PRICE. You can't see gold's turnip yet.

BTW, remind me. Which one of these 2 items is in a bubble?
 

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dpong

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Finally, (signaling that I'm about to shut up), for perspective on that bubble-to-end-all, here is a LT chart of the 10 year bond price. Notice that this chart goes back about 12 or 13 years.
 

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<SLV>

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Re: Relative oddity this am

There were rumors in mid January JPM was shorting the SP and long gold. That's when I figured this sad saga would start to unravel. Posted this somewhere here...

20140113_1928.jpg


Freaky chart.

Is this model broken yet?
 

Ahillock

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metals doing fine as we all surmised,

yet oil is a problem, up another 1.17 per barrel and now over 103,

with gas prices rising across the nation,

ngas, and oils going up spells long term seize up issues in the economy


Cartoon-Gas-Prices.png
 

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WTF is going on with crude? Serious question. Up a bit again today to almost $103. The below article correlates it with the frigid weather here in North America, but that seems like an easy excuse when demand is normally depressed during the winter. My WAG is that it is primarily a storage and distribution shortfall. If this is correct, therefore people using petro fuels for heat are getting squeezed on supply, and the distributers, speculators, and hedgies are ganging up and piling on the profits in a tight, volatile market. Is this a reasonable assumption?
--Pyramid

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oil & Gas Recover From Friday's Sell Off
Posted February 24, 2014 6:09 (GMT)
By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Friday was a crazy day in the energy markets, with traders selling off to book obscene profits as crude oil and natural gas continued to climb mid session as the winter storm blanketed the US east coast and the weatherman called for more snow and cold throughout the balance of February and into March. Oil price resumed its rally during last week. WTI oil increased by 1.9%; Brent oil, by 1%. Natural gas jumped to the highest price in five years as forecasters warned of more freezing U.S. weather. Hedge funds increased bullish bets on the heating fuel as inventories dropped to the lowest in a decade. Natural gas rose as much as 5.6 percent to $6.478 per million British thermal units in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest intraday price since Dec. 3, 2008.

On Friday, Accuweather reported that a series of storms could combine over the Northwest “snow would likely evolve near or along the I-95 corridor, leading to another round of disruptions to travel and daily routines,” it said. About 49 percent of U.S. households use gas for heating, with the biggest consumers in the Midwest, U.S. Energy Information Administration data show. Later in the day the forecast changes both the short term and near term, to a bit warmer and no major storms which pushed traders to sell and book immediate profits after Natural gas surged. This morning gas is trading at 5.133 up by 121 points after declining in the afternoon session in the US on Friday. Gas surged 15 percent during the period covered by the report as winter storms brought snow and below-normal temperatures to the eastern U.S. Forecasts show a polar blast returning to the region this week. Gas supplies dropped to 1.443 trillion cubic feet in the seven days ended Feb. 14, the lowest level for the time of year since 2004, government data show.

Crude oil added 29 cents this morning to trade at 102.49, while Brent oil added 20 cents to reach 110.03 as traders recovered from Friday’s sell off. West Texas Intermediate crude rose from the lowest price in a week amid speculation that cold weather in the U.S. will boost demand for heating in the world’s biggest oil consumer. WTI has risen in the past six weeks, capping the longest run of weekly gains in a year, as crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell and cold weather bolstered fuel demand. Another blast of freezing air is forecast for the central and eastern U.S. this week as two storms threaten to bring snow to the Northeast, according to the National Weather Service.

The opening of the southern link of TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL pipeline in January eased a bottleneck in the central U.S. Supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for the WTI contract, fell 1.73 million barrels to 35.9 million, the lowest level since Oct. 25, the EIA said last week. Nationwide crude supplies rose 973,000 barrels to 362.3 million in the seven days ended Feb. 14. Heating oil gained 106 points this morning also recovering from the sell off on Friday to trade at 3.0495. It seems that the weatherman cannot make up his mind as to what to expect this week.

http://www.fxempire.com/news/commodities-news/oil-gas-recover-from-fridays-sell-off/

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Edit to add:
Found this page later, it appears to confirm my assumptions to a large degree. It also provides some TA charts...the trend is up, up, and away, with no immediate, short-term resistance in sight. Well worth a look.
http://www.kilduffreport.com/energy-2/energy-overview-february-24-2014/
 
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Ahillock

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one thing to mention of note,

when we had Michael from Apmex on the radio, he was speaking to how they sell out of their allotted quantities of product, and go into the market to get more and satisfy demand.

found it quite interesting that a couple of weeks ago, before this most recent rise, that there was a number of issues with dealers across the board.

most of it seems to me as though it was related to the sheer interest and volume that was going out the door.

Persons were getting their metal, but there were delays, or order mishaps, what have you. All from good solid dealers, who historically have proven their capabilities.

It was as though the backside that we do not see just went nuts with beyond normal business, overloading and causing errors across the board.

??????

Interesting.
 

phideaux

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Somewhat unusual action today, when the USD again bounced off 80, the metals rallied with it.
 

Eat Beef

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That natty chart is UGLY.

Don't believe the hype on short supplys for NG. We have a lot of NG production, I talk to the guys on a regular basis, from the dirty grunts to the CEOs. Basically, after NG crashed in 08, they shut down production. They are either just producing enough to tread water (if they are on a shoestring), or only producing with wells that would cause havoc if they shut them down entirely. We're talking below 25% production, some under 10%.

When prices rise, they'll be met with supply, and a lot of it.
 

Ahillock

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Drop by 0.9%, largest since 2008. A race to the bottom?

USDCNY%20%3D_0.jpg
 

phideaux

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USD whacked this AM, down a half percent. now below 80,

intraday.gif


Yet PMs haven't budged.:banghead:

WTF:questionmark:
 
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Ahillock

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If CNY is devaluing , does USD have much of a choice? Look what CNY did on 27th and look at USD's response on 28th. Race to bottom.

More important I think is revised Q4 GDP from 3.2% to 2.4%. That is huge in terms of significance.
 

phideaux

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More important I think is revised Q4 GDP from 3.2% to 2.4%. That is huge in terms of significance.

For all the computer algos and Wall Street economic models, yes.

But the GDP numbers are bogus. They're calculated using the phony CPI, which is blatantly and obviously manipulated and understated.
 

Ahillock

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For all the computer algos and Wall Street economic models, yes.

But the GDP numbers are bogus. They're calculated using the phony CPI, which is blatantly and obviously manipulated and understated.

Yeah I believe the GDP numbers are bogus as well. But I was hinting at what you mentioned, for WS the GDP revision can have a big impact.


At this rate, what are the odds we have negative GDP by Q3/Q4 2014? If all of the GDP has been a result of all the money printing, with the taper there will be a contraction of the GDP further right?
 

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Ahillock

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Sorry Scorpio, I don't want to take this thread too far off course but the GDP issue is interesting to me. Fed states inflation is what, 2%. GDP at 2.4% doesn't give much growth at all, 0.4%. When the numbers come out for Q1 2014, GDP could even be below 2%. Won't have to wait until the end of the year for negative GDP. But we know we can't use the Fed's inflation number. So plug in your favorite estimate for inflation and it is as we have known for some time. Not good.

IMO we have had credit expansion with out the same amount of economic expansion. Now all of this junk economy is coming home to roost.
 

dpong

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LT Dollar chart. She's on a sell signal.
 

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dpong

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GDP (Y) is a sum of Consumption (C), Investment (I), Government Spending (G) and Net Exports (X – M).
Y = C + I + G + (X − M)

(What would you like the GDP to be? Outside of debt ceiling, it's no sweat.)
Also adjusted by phony CPI, as previously noted.
 

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Gold did hit $1350 overnight. Wonder if it can close above $1350 today.
 

phideaux

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southfork

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real strong move in the yellow one,

while silver has a ho hum day,

which is funny in and of itself, as we used to get all worked up about a .20 ct up back in the day,

Neither really reacted as they should have though, gold should have had a 50 or 100 buck day and a buck or two or three in silver, dollar up , dow down, just cant figure this sht anymore, thinking more and more the manipulation has to end sooner than later. Or maybe we just wake up and gold is 3k and silver 100 bucks, don't know
 

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Japan's Market Breaks

Having ripped higher by over 200 points after the US close, Nikkei 225 futures have "glicthed":

*JPX SAYS NIKKEI 225 FUTURES STOPPED TRADING AFTER 11AM TOKYO
*JAPAN EXCHANGE SAYS NIKKEI 225 FUTURES STOPPED ON SYSTEM ERROR
*TRADING HALT MAY BE DUE TO SYSTEM PROBLEMS, TAKAHASHI SAYS

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-03/japans-market-breaks


Need to reset those algorithms. Just hang on a minute. We will get right back to you.
 

<SLV>

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real strong move in the yellow one,

while silver has a ho hum day,

which is funny in and of itself, as we used to get all worked up about a .20 ct up back in the day,

63+:1. I expect further separation to 70:1 by year end.
 

<SLV>

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So much for CRIMEX doing the smack down. Someone in Asia (China?) or Europe wants to make sure it doesn't get out of hand.
 

Eat Beef

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Could get a touch and go off of 20.50ish (Silver), retesting the trading range.

I don't see a lot of weakness in PMs with Putin slapping Barky around daily...
 

Ahillock

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Precious metals green this AM.