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itsamess

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#41
Why is it that people who can't express themselves must say "nuff said". If enough were said, why say it?
Some folks always have to have the last word. Well Beefie
April 15
 

Eat Beef

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#42
Read your own chart, the bottom is before April 2! :banghead:
 

itsamess

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#43
Read your own chart, the bottom is before April 2! :banghead:
Wasn't referring to the chart (again not my chart - please try to be accurate). Sad when folks can't be civilized, oh well have at it.
April 15, bring up the thread then we shall see.
 

Scorpio

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#44
pretty sizable start for oil to the upside this am,

+ 0.61 and at 100.55 on the soothing discussion from ole mama yellen


bonds took it on the chin yesterday, and another start to the same today,

heard yesterday a trader was calling for 120 test to the downside in time,

currently at 132-16 and down 11 tics



gold and silver trying to figure out what to do,

gold down after a nice run yesterday and silver up after a flat

gold is at 1287 and speaks to how we said that resistance at 1280 was nothing, kinda plowed right thru and set its sights on 1300

silver back over 20 and holding it, currently about 20.18 and going to be slammin' up against resistance at the 20.50 level on any upside push,

so with the metals, both are coming up against what I see as resistance, and that should give us a little direction on strength and near term direction

while in the sm's or stocks, big rally yesterday after/during/before the speech of 'ole yellen

they are off to more of the same this am,

gotta keep the dream alive, the 401k's flush, etc

ride 'em Janet, ride 'em!
 

Scorpio

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#45
ohh and btw,

120 on bonds is a long ways down ie int rates up

38c6b33c9ad9fbfce4d7afd35198fdac.png
 

Scorpio

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#46
Crude still flying to the up, now + 1.20 a barrel and above 101,

that does not bode well for anything let alone a recovering economy,

and what do sm's have to say about it?

why they are up of course...........

unfookin' believable
 

Scorpio

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#47
oil got itself back under $100 today,

so that is quite interesting in that it hasn't been able to take the hill and hold it,

seriously bad IMO if it does

---------

as for gold and silver, showing a great deal of strength, that any pullbacks have been without force, tepid at best

looks like we may have the beginnings of a good run for a bit is my guess,

didn't reach the resistance over the top, pulled back before it,

so it is going to take some buying energy to push it on through,

gold and silver stocks have been on a nice tear since their bottoms up,

looks like she might have been just changing clothes and putting on her big boy pants,

we shall see

ticker page:
http://www.goldismoney2.com/custompage.php

nic at night turned back down again last evening, shedding 265 pts again, after a brief respite to the up,

looks like sellers aren't giving up over there yet,

14,534.74 Down 265.32(1.79%)

1 month chart isn't showing last nights drop yet

nik.png
 

Scorpio

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#48
5 day chart for the nic at nite

note the spikes on the open, then the rest of the day it just drifted,

certainly a lack of conviction to the upside

nik.png
 

Goldhedge

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#49
I found this at jsmineset. One of his followers sent it and JS found it worthy of posting.


Dear CIGAS,

...While at the Jim Sinclair conference I heard Jim say something that is so obvious, so common sense and so connected, and I have even written about it but stupid me didn’t break it down to reality. He answered a question and said "we do have bread lines, you just don’t see them… where do you think the 50 million Americans would be without food stamps?" I have written several times on this topic (and try to break things down to a common denominator) yet never got there on this one. Subliminally? Yes of course and I’m sure it is the same for you, but where would these people be? They would be standing in lines all over the country waiting for soup, bread, cheese or whatever and ON THE NEWS! Can you imagine the confidence this would instill? Might this spill over elsewhere?

Elsewhere like into the banking system? Might seeing bread lines cause some depositors to run to their bank and take out at least some balances? Well yes of course it would but technology plays a bigger role. A bigger role just as food stamps do in hiding hunger. Any run that occurs you and I will not see until after the fact. After the fact as in after the bank is closed or "bailed in" with part of your balances saving the bank. You see, any run will be electronic and unless you actually work close enough to the actual transfers (the run), you will never see it. There will be no lines cluing you that you need to be in it. Any bank run of an individual bank or of the system itself will happen obscured by technology’s veil, you will only see the truth after the fact.

In the 1930′s there was no way to hide what was happening. Banks were closing, people were out of work and standing in lines. Even though they didn’t have iPhones at the time, photos and film clips did exist. In today’s modern world where you can’t do anything that’s not filmed the truth is obscured everywhere that you look for it. The truth of our economic and financial numbers are made up. We could have a bank run today that takes all deposits from a bank yet the Fed could loan them everything that was lost and the bank will open Monday morning as if nothing happened!

My point is this: YOU need to dig for the truth for YOURSELF. There is information out there for you to do this. This process is made difficult because you have to sift through all sorts of disinformation from many sources that should (were at one time) be real and reliable. In a world where nothing is as it is portrayed, the obstacles to finding the truth are large and on a systemic scale. Gold is portrayed as bad or weak when in fact it is solid and will again be the foundation of finance and your financial survival. Gold is to the dollar like sunlight is to a vampire. There are many and various reasons that the Fed and other central banks want you to believe that gold is bad or weak or not even money at all. There are many and various reasons that they don’t even want gold at the edges of the radar. They have every reason to have done everything in their powers to turn you away from gold as money. You have only one job, dig for the truth and figure it out for yourself even as you are constantly being misdirected away from it..don’t be fooled and know this truth!

Regards,
CIGA Bill Holter
 

Scorpio

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#50
great point by him IMO,

I never put that 2+2 together either
 

Scorpio

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#51
fwiw, gold and oil already recovered,

the energy is to the up on them,

oil has crawled back over 100,

and there are a number of persons claiming buy the dips on oil
 

phideaux

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#52
USD getting whacked today, down .40, a half percent. that's a big move in the FX world.

 

Scorpio

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#53
yep phid,

and with that, gold is now getting close to the resistance at 1300 that it needs to clear,

1298 currently
 

phideaux

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#54
PM should be rocketing higher today with the USD down.

Silver barely budging.

Yeah, I think gold breaking $1300 will get the talking heads talking about gold again. I can see Maria Buttaroma now: "Is the gold bear market over? Let's ask Dennis Gartman." :haha:
 

REO 54

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#55
I find interesting that the moment gold is trying to go up while the other metals are going down. Don't know if that means anything at all, but this the "Ramblings" thread so........
 

JayDubya

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#56
I find interesting that the moment gold is trying to go up while the other metals are going down. Don't know if that means anything at all, but this the "Ramblings" thread so........
It's funny you would mention it. I had a conversation this AM with someone and that's exactly what we were discussing. Gold is moving up but little sister (silver) is not tagging along this time. Gold is moving up but there's no plurality. So what does that say about this move in gold? Does it have to say anything?
 

Ahillock

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#57
Finally went over $1300 today, even if brief. Gold is pressing the 200DMA for the first time in over a year.

 

Eat Beef

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#58
Some folks always have to have the last word. Well Beefie
April 15
Hey, what's your prediction? I haven't seen anything but a chart and a statement that doesn't correlate with the chart.

My prediction is that we don't get a 47% haircut in the down by April 1, 2 or 15. I'll go further and say no Dow under, say 11k by then.

What's your concrete prediction?
 

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#59
Finally went over $1300 today, even if brief. Gold is pressing the 200DMA for the first time in over a year.



I thought your stance was that it was impossible to chart a manipulated market?
 

Scorpio

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#60
We talked about the resistance on gold at 1300, and silver at 20.50,

Once they cleared those tough areas, we would see some strength,

We did, and the strength started right away last evening and is holding into today,

Gold now at 1314 and silver bucking on 2100.

The 200 DMA is at 21.14 for silver currently, and a close above that will bring in new buying,

While gold 200 DMA is at 1310, and we eclipsed that on the overnights,

silver.png

gold.png
 

Scorpio

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#61
while the nic at nite got hit again,

bled off some selling for a few days, then the last 2 days getting hammered with steady selling pressure,

Nikkei 225 (^N225)

14,313.03 Down 221.71(1.53%) 1:00AM EST

If the lows around 14K don't hold, then it could get ugly for the Nik market

losses will really start to mount with things moving from just a minimal correction to something else,

somewhere around 12.8 they will finally admit it going into bear market, so it has much further to go to achieve that lofty status
 

JustPassinThru

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#62
What I think is that the Emperor has been shown to have no clothes.

As gold started up this time, I watched Blythe Masters whack it down several times...and it kept popping up, Whack-A-Mole style.

This budget deal the clowns in Washingtoon did, is undeniable proof: We're a nation led by a re-tard, with timid, spineless wannabees in the alleged opposition. They're watching with great interest, to see if he can pull it off - that they'll have some of that power, too, in turn!

And the Chinese, not infected by the lead in the Washingtoon water supply, are just nodding sage-like...Americans have gone Idiocracy. Time to move.

The dollar, in this environment, has NO future.

Gold is the fallback.
 

Scorpio

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#63
fwiw,

forgot to add, they are clipping the wings on oil a bit this am,

down .51 and back under $100,

lately as it has dipped under 100, buyers have come in and brought it back above,

so we see how it closes,

that baby is rancid ripe for a correction,

oils 200 dma was back around 99.51, so it eclipsed it and went on a small run,

so far it is holding above it,

last time it tried to clear the 200, it got hammered back shortly thereafter,

back in late '13


oil.png
 

Scorpio

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#64
you can see on the silver chart, once that resistance was taken, it is all blue sky for a bit,

I think they hit into a lot of buy stops when they punched it on thru, adding impetus to the move,

Many people buy a breakout of a range, SOP

silver.png
 

Scorpio

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#65
whereas in gold, it has been grinding it out since its lows,

real constructive chart,

bucking up against new resistance around that 1320 mark, but no heavy resistance until 1360-80, say 1370


GOLD.png
 

Unca Walt

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#66
Hey, what's your prediction? I haven't seen anything but a chart and a statement that doesn't correlate with the chart.

My prediction is that we don't get a 47% haircut in the down by April 1, 2 or 15. I'll go further and say no Dow under, say 11k by then.

What's your concrete prediction?
Tip 'o the hat for a ballsy prediction. :s13:
 

Scorpio

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#67
silver leading today,

so far + 4.8%

gold + 1.4%

Silver/Gold Ratio started the day at 63.64

currently at 61.55

silver still has some catching up to do to match golds recent strength
 

Eat Beef

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#69
silver leading today,

so far + 4.8%

gold + 1.4%

Silver/Gold Ratio started the day at 63.64

currently at 61.55

silver still has some catching up to do to match golds recent strength

Heck of a strong move.

Moreso when you consider it's Friday and it comes on top of what was already a decent move.

We're already outside the Bolis on a daily, and into mild resistance, I expect it to ease up a few days then run.
 

Scorpio

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#70
yeah Eat,

and oil spent most of the day below 100, but now retook it and holding above
 

Eat Beef

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#71
My worry is that it (silver) gaps up into resistance Sunday night.

If that happens it will get hammered Monday morning, maybe just enough to flat line it a couple of days, or maybe enough to beat it back down below $20ish and make this look like a bull trap...
 

Scorpio

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#72
I'm hearing ya,

but usually when silver gets a bug up its keister,

it can make stuff like that moot IMO,

we might be able to make a quick run to 25 before anyone even gives a whit or takes notice,

the large Friday up brings back memories, real good memories,

been watching that close, and the tide did indeed turn awhile back re Fridays,

tells me the risk is to the up rather than to the down,
 

phideaux

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#73
Silver smelled like a big short squeeze today. Big buying right into the close.

Sunday night should be interesting.

I agree Scorp, it could run to $25 without the mainstream even noticing.

Then we'll see.
 

phideaux

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#74
And if the USD breaks 80, (closed at 80.15), it may signal a further move towards 79, then looooook ouuuuut beeeelowwwww...

 

Scorpio

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#75
putting into perspective,

last Fri silver pounded thru the 200 dma, good stuff, and now showing strength again this am,

we have a bit of a run going on,

we are sitting at some resistance now, that cleared sets the tone for 22.50 to 23

as Phid says, the dollar is real close to breaking 80 to the downside,

2nd chart shows current action

silver.png

sivler2.png
 

Scorpio

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#76
for gold, same story, punched its way thru the 200 and setting up for more, up decent this am,

again, 2nd chart is from this am

looks like she wants to head for 1360 to me


gold.png


gold2.png
 

itsamess

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#77
Hey, what's your prediction? I haven't seen anything but a chart and a statement that doesn't correlate with the chart.

My prediction is that we don't get a 47% haircut in the down by April 1, 2 or 15. I'll go further and say no Dow under, say 11k by then.

What's your concrete prediction?
For what it is worth and in the interest of honest analysis here is an alternative article

Consensus on ‘scary’ 1929 chart: Enough already, it’s not happening


That said there is also an interesting update regarding Soros and major upping his position in bear S&P SPY

Soros doubles a bearish bet on the S&P 500, to the tune of $1.3 billion
Again in sake of full disclosure,this filing is 6 weeks old.

Still think April 15 is important date and I don't mean for taxes. Time will tell. Now please don't get all unhappy, life is too short.
 

itsamess

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#78
Another article about potential market "direction"-

US stock market-to-GDP ratio favored by Warren Buffett points to imminent 50% crash

Whenever the Sage of Omaha is pushed on how he judges whether the US stock market is trading too high or too low he refers to the ratio between the value of US stocks and GDP as a reliable guage of where the market stands.

Analyst Doug Short has a version of the ‘Warren Buffett Indicator’ which uses the value of the Wilshire 5,000, a very broad index. It shows that stocks are more expensive than they were before the 2008 crash and almost as expensive as they were before the dot-com crash in 2000.

50% crash

Warren Buffett is not exactly shouting it from the roof tops but his favorite indicator is pointing to an imminent 50 per cent crash in US stocks. The main indexes are all far too high. You don’t need to be a genius like Warren Buffett to see it...

link
 

Scorpio

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#79
124a5681f827303ff1b3ecf21c6b9234.png current silver chart, you can see a hard cap put on at 22,

so we see,

but during the bull run, it was very typical to get down action on Thurs, followed by up on Fri,

today and tomorrow will give us more intel if this run is real or just another failed attempt to the up,

I was asked, what is going on with gold and silver, is it short covering or?

I responded that I thought this time it was more than short covering. That the long trading range in silver, the break of that and then the break and hold of the 200dma was more symptomatic of a new move.

That money is flowing into comods, and this is also part of that.

Now if you want me to speculate, I would argue this:

Smart money, and even dumb money knows the SM's are over extended by any measure.

That this is the money that is moving around into commods and so on. Bonds are even catching bids to the up, and holding well up there. So who is still buying Sm's as they leave?

To me, TPTB are in there buying as others are selling to keep the dream alive. That fiat is trying to rotate out of stocks, and that rotation is more or less being blocked or covered.

The painted phony economic numbers, the inability of the stocks to go down over a couple of ticks before it gets supported, and other items of note seem to lead to external factors affecting the local sm's.
 

Scorpio

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#80
here is for the bonds,

bonds.png

you can see how they recovered off those lows, about the time sm's should have been going down


here is the gold chart:

it overshot the 1320, which really isn't too much of a surprise for a market to overshoot resistance before being brought under control,

stop running, all manner of other cool things that happen

which effectively means relatively weak resistance to me anyway

gold.png