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Scorpio

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That is interesting and opens it up to all manner of questions,

-who are those being required to put this large sum down?
-more importantly, who is not being required to do this?
-are they also doing this on emergency cases?
-who is defining 'emergency' or 'elective'?

etc.
 

Scorpio

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crazy stuff,

they say the fed is way behind the curve re inflation,
that the fed should giddyonup re rates and get going,

the inflation numbers are huge,
yet gold is down 19 bucks as we speak and silver down 59
crazy

the assumption being the rise in the dollar due to increasing rates far outweighs the metals covering a six on inflation

the market is completely discounting any ideas of a gold/silver inflation hedge,
the market is declaring that all ballderdash
 

BarnacleBob

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crazy stuff,

they say the fed is way behind the curve re inflation,
that the fed should giddyonup re rates and get going,

the inflation numbers are huge,
yet gold is down 19 bucks as we speak and silver down 59
crazy

the assumption being the rise in the dollar due to increasing rates far outweighs the metals covering a six on inflation

the market is completely discounting any ideas of a gold/silver inflation hedge,
the market is declaring that all ballderdash
I think people in the late 70's & early 1980 mistakenly correlated the rise in POG with that eras inflation, when in fact it was a loss of confidence in the global management & value of the $ that created the tremendous rise in the POG.

Gold will be shunned as the big plays underway are occurring in paper or should I say its a "save the credibility of paper" thats now manifesting.... There is trillion$ in zombie corps on the books that represent wealth & leveraged collateral in the system... if it isnt saved, a daisy chain of Lehman Bros, etc. could begin imploding....

I dont expect the Fed to rush to raising any rates... they will milk the growing inflation while retaining low artificial rates until the MARKET forces them to raise. At this point in time, there doesnt appear to be much pressure to raise rates as the markets remain flooded with available fiat credit looking for demand. Rates wont rise until demand begins to draw down on the available credit supply.... JMO
 

Scorpio

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There is trillion$ in zombie corps on the books

facebook
twitter
cnn
untuckit
door dash
grub hub

thousands of them,
not a one of them doing anything productive,
all blood sucking leaches,
 

solarion

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The kicker is that the US dollar index is actually down slightly this morning at 96.29 down 0.03%.

November PPI numbers were released by the bureau of statistical propaganda this morning as well.
The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in November, as the index for final demand services rose 0.7 percent and prices for final demand goods moved up 1.2 percent. The final demand index advanced 9.6 percent for the 12 months ended in November.

Yeah...people stacking gold and silver are obviously just conspiracy theorists...everything is great with the US dollar.

US Producer Inflation Rises More than Expected
Producer prices for final demand in the US increased 0.8 percent from a month earlier in November of 2021, the most since July and above market expectations of 0.5 percent amid supply and labor constraints and robust demand, adding to concerns over inflationary pressure in the world's largest economy. Over 60 percent of the October increase can be traced to a 1.2 percent rise in prices for final demand goods. Also, the index for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent, and prices for final demand construction advanced 6.6 percent. Year-on-year, producer inflation rose to a fresh record of 9.6 percent, above forecasts of 9.2 percent.
89 minutes ago
 

BarnacleBob

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The kicker is that the US dollar index is actually down slightly this morning at 96.29 down 0.03%.

November PPI numbers were released by the bureau of statistical propaganda this morning as well.


Yeah...people stacking gold and silver are obviously just conspiracy theorists...everything is great with the US dollar.
Actually 94 - 96 DXU is the long term average $ basket valuation... while the long term average U.S. $ interest rate hovers between 5.5 & 6.5%....
 

solarion

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With official inflation rates in the US running at 6.8% YoY and 10y T-note yields at a rather anemic 1.459%, meaning real rates are < -5% it would seem reasonable to conclude that wealth preservation and not yield seeking would be a primary concern to...well nearly everyone. ...and yet, commodities traditionally considered shelters against inflation continue to tank.

Transitory indeed. lol
 

BarnacleBob

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With official inflation rates in the US running at 6.8% YoY and 10y T-note yields at a rather anemic 1.459%, meaning real rates are < -5% it would seem reasonable to conclude that wealth preservation and not yield seeking would be a primary concern to...well nearly everyone. ...and yet, commodities traditionally considered shelters against inflation continue to tank.

Transitory indeed. lol
There looks like a lot of scared money sitting around with no demand... cant put it in banks, stawks, commods & corp bonds which almost all appear to be peaking & risky... the only safe harbor is sovereign bonds. Its not about interest rates off-setting the inflationary destruction of PPP, its really just a matter of parking regardless of the loss... some better than none I guess... As Scorp has ranted about for the past 8 year, this speaks to the unleashing of the fiat Kracken, it has flooded the system driving velocity & rates to lows, etc... the only economic mechanism I am aware of that can possibly mop up & return some semblence of equalibrium from the previous cyclical waste is a major war or some kinda global project that puts the generated excess into operation...
 

solarion

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Agreed, and following the money flows is of vital import, particularly when seemingly everything is dropping simultaneously. Just seems rather counter-intuitive, to me, to dump bank credit into .gov debt...dropping interest rates on government debt when those interest rates are already well below the rate of inflation. Nothing like reverse yield shopping...or paying the gumbymint to hold onto one's fiats.
 

BarnacleBob

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Agreed, and following the money flows is of vital import, particularly when seemingly everything is dropping simultaneously. Just seems rather counter-intuitive, to me, to dump bank credit into .gov debt...dropping interest rates on government debt when those interest rates are already well below the rate of inflation. Nothing like reverse yield shopping...or paying the gumbymint to hold onto one's fiats.
Bank credit is somewhat risky when a cyclical down turn occurs... while .gov bonds are only risky if you think .gov is going to be overturned & reorganized... I dont see USA INC flopping anytime soon. Dont think staying in bank credit is a wise move for big $$$. Gotta remember yields are the product of excess fiat creation. The market can only absorb so much on a regular basis... the smart excess will then flow to .gov bonds, which is prolly the intended result of these operations... create so much that the .gov need not rely upon any foreign investors such as China to keep it floating & financed... and secondly, these operations have resulted in discounting the real value of the debt....
 

solarion

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Dont think staying in bank credit is a wise move for big $$$.
I don't...not even a little bit. ...and I appreciate that gold and cryptos are "unpopular" safe havens because they don't pay a yield, but a significantly negative yield in sovereign debt is significantly worse than zero.

...yes I'm a radical. lol

Further, I don't see how bond/treasury/tbill value rises significantly "enough" over the life of the asset to overcome the loss of yield caused by rising face value. I guess it depends on just how negative one believes .gov debt real yields can reach and maintain. Then again, I would've thought the zero bound would be a problem given the 40 year bond bull market...but they just keep right on galloping with barely an omicron sniffle.
 
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BarnacleBob

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I don't...not even a little bit. ...and I appreciate that gold and cryptos are "unpopular" safe havens because they don't pay a yield, but a significantly negative yield in sovereign debt is significantly worse than zero.

...yes I'm a radical. lol

Further, I don't see how bond/treasury/tbill value rises significantly "enough" over the life of the asset to overcome the loss of yield caused by rising face value. I guess it depends on just how negative one believes .gov debt real yields can reach and maintain. Then again, I would've thought the zero bound would be a problem given the 40 year bond bull market...but they just keep right on galloping with barely an omicron sniffle.
I think its about preserving capital & maintaining liquidity. A multibillion conglomerate must remain somewhat liquid and capable of reaching anywhere in the SWIFT system within hours if not minutes... cant do that with crypto & gold, etc... the Treasury market is always liquid 24/7/365.... thats the real difference.
 

solarion

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I dunno, the repo and reverse repo markets often seem extremely illiquid, but it's a fair point. ...but then one gets into the notion that federal regime debt can ever be considered collateral for a loan at all. The whole thing is absurd to my mind. Goobermints default all the time...I sure as hell won't be accepting as collateral a debt note from an entity that can't even square its own books and has a debt to GDP ratio of 126%. lol
 

Scorpio

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yes,

remember when we considered 100% debt to gdp as a tipping point,

so much for that metric also,
 

BarnacleBob

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yes,

remember when we considered 100% debt to gdp as a tipping point,

so much for that metric also,

Look at the Nippons..... and ¥ is considered a safe haven currency! There is more to a currency than the debt that is laid upon it....

"Japan recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 266.20 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2020". source: Ministry of Finance, Japan

 

solarion

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Seems like the whole world is dreaming a dream that debt can be "money" and nobody wants to wake up. Seems like when someone awakens...there may well be a rush for the exits. Pressing the snooze in such a scenario may prove very costly.
 

solarion

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Nothing to see here folks...trust them fiats.

1639760433200.png


Edit: This has now risen to 16.4285 Lira per USD. The USD/TRY ratio has increased 13.85 fold just since 2008.
 
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BarnacleBob

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arminius

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Why is everyone on Manchin for not voting for BBB. Where are the rinos that usually save the day?
Don't add up does it............................

Are average democrats against it also?
 

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Why is everyone on Manchin for not voting for BBB. Where are the rinos that usually save the day?
Don't add up does it............................

Are average democrats against it also?
They're animals.

When animals smell sickness or weakness, they charge.
 

Scorpio

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Uglytruth

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Usually buy myself a Christmas gift I "want" not need. No parts to build it.
Have a small side business machining parts. Can't get material. 3/4" L copper tube.
Price is beyond insane on everything. Customer has to have it to satisfy his customer.

Thinking this is going to get much worse.

How can businesses stay in business when they have nothing to sell?
How can people simply maintain the current infrastructure if parts are not available?

Now we know why great grandpa saved EVERYTHING!
 

Uglytruth

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2 phone calls. Two people downsizing. One selling stuff off so they can live like nomads in a RV. One because he had his third heart attack the Saturday before Thanksgiving.

Heart attack guy could not get into a big hospital for surgery because they were full. Stated he never thought health care would be in the shape it is in this country. Then he started in with the I know 3 people that died with covid. He did not like when I called it a bioweapon.

Tried to order 34 lengths of 1/4-20 zink plated threaded rod for a side job. It's on order was the reply. When is it due I asked. 9 days ago was the answer. When will you have it? No answer.

Yes brandon is doing a wonderful job........ I think an economic seizure is rapidly approaching.
 

Uglytruth

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Under the you can't make this shit up banner.

Brother just called. Changing oil in a dump truck at work. They use Rotella. He went to NAPA. Ended up with 5 gallons of NAPA oil, 4 one gallon jugs of Mobil oil & 4 quarts to make the 10 gallons they needed.

Took another truck to the dealership to have a tail light repaired. They brought the truck back out & said sorry we don't have any bulbs of that number.

LETS GO BRANDON!
 

Casey Jones

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A taillight bulb is one of THE most-standard auto parts...unless it's a proprietary, styled tail light, like some of the new pickup trucks.

Bulb No. 1157. SAE standard. If he can't get one at NAPA, because they're that farked up...he can go to a wrecking yard and get a truckload of them, perfectly operable.
 

BarnacleBob

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Under the you can't make this shit up banner.

Brother just called. Changing oil in a dump truck at work. They use Rotella. He went to NAPA. Ended up with 5 gallons of NAPA oil, 4 one gallon jugs of Mobil oil & 4 quarts to make the 10 gallons they needed.

Took another truck to the dealership to have a tail light repaired. They brought the truck back out & said sorry we don't have any bulbs of that number.

LETS GO BRANDON!
Local service station (two large service centers) goes to CarQuest for oil filters, for sourcing oil filters. Now they go to NAPA and elsewhere to try and locate oil filters. Something weird, when you cannot source oil filters.

I bought a two to three year of supply of synthetic oil for my vehicles. Year ago, 5 quart container of synthetic oil I use was $32.00 at NAPA, now $42.00 today. I usually buy at Walmart. $27.00 a 5 quart jug. Spent alot of time searching for oil filter, too.
 

Uglytruth

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Ultimate theft!

http://www.chapwoodindex.org/

Chapwood Index – The Real Cost of Living Increase Index Vs Consumer Price Index

Founded by Ed Butowsky​

Navigation

CityCY 2015CY 2016CY 2017CY 20181st Half 20195yr Avg
1.
New York
10.3%10.8%11.2%12.6%12.1%11.4%
2.
Los Angeles
10.9%11.1%11.6%12.1%12.6%11.7%
3.
Chicago
9.8%10.9%11.0%11.9%10.7%10.9%
4.
Houston
8.4%8.9%8.7%8.8%9.7%8.9%
5.
Philadelphia
10.8%11.2%10.8%10.6%11.2%10.9%
6.
Phoenix
7.6%8.1%9.2%7.4%7.6%8.0%
7.
San Antonio
8.4%8.8%8.8%9.3%9.8%9.0%
8.
San Diego
13.0%12.2%11.8%11.7%11.2%12.0%
9.
Dallas
9.4%8.9%9.2%8.7%8.4%8.9%
10.
San Jose
13.3%12.9%13.3%12.7%12.6%13.0%
11.
Jacksonville
7.6%8.4%8.6%8.0%8.7%8.3%
12.
Indianapolis
11.1%9.5%9.1%10.3%9.3%9.9%
13.
San Francisco
12.7%13.2%12.8%12.6%12.1%12.7%
14.
Austin
10.10%9.7%10.0%10.8%10.8%10.3%
15.
Columbus
7.4%9.5%9.5%10.4%9.7%9.3%
16.
Fort Worth
9.2%8.9%9.0%9.7%9.0%9.2%
17.
Charlotte
10.5%7.4%8.1%7.7%9.4%8.6%
18.
Detroit
11.8%10.9%11.6%11.4%10.6%11.3%
19.
El Paso
7.4%7.6%7.9%10.2%9.8%8.6%
20.
Memphis
8.9%9.3%9.1%9.2%9.0%9.1%
21.
Baltimore
11.2%11.2%11.9%11.3%12.1%11.5%
22.
Boston
10.7%11.5%11.1%9.9%8.7%10.4%
23.
Seattle
11.9%12.3%12.3%12.8%11.6%12.2%
24.
Washington
9.7%12.8%13.2%12.1%11.6%11.9%
25.
Nashville
8.6%7.7%7.2%8.1%8.4%8.0%
26.
Denver
8.2%7.9%7.5%7.7%8.0%7.9%
27.
Louisville
9.1%8.1%6.9%9.1%7.9%8.2%
28.
Milwaukee
10.4%10.7%10.8%12.2%10.4%10.9%
29.
Portland
13.4%11.1%11.7%11.6%9.8%11.5%
30.
Las Vegas
9.1%8.8%9.2%9.8%8.7%9.1%
31.
Oklahoma City
9.4%9.9%9.4%8.1%9.1%9.2%
32.
Albuquerque
6.4%7.4%8.1%8.6%8.4%7.8%
33.
Tucson
8.7%8.7%8.2%8.6%7.7%8.4%
34.
Fresno
12.6%12.2%12.0%11.8%11.9%12.1%
35.
Sacramento
10.8%12.3%12.7%12.7%11.7%12.0%
36.
Long Beach
12.3%12.7%13.3%11.9%12.2%12.5%
37.
Kansas City
7.2%7.6%8.7%7.8%7.4%7.7%
38.
Mesa
5.9%7.0%7.9%6.9%5.5%6.6%
39.
Virginia Beach
9.5%9.7%10.4%10.8%8.9%9.9%
40.
Atlanta
8.3%8.7%10.2%8.7%9.1%9.0%
41.
Colorado Springs
7.0%10.4%10.1%9.4%9.6%9.3%
42.
Omaha
6.4%9.0%9.0%7.6%6.7%7.7%
43.
Raleigh
6.1%6.3%7.4%8.2%6.1%6.8%
44.
Miami
10.4%10.4%10.8%10.1%9.8%10.3%
45.
Cleveland
10.4%10.2%9.7%11.7%9.3%10.3%
46.
Tulsa
7.0%7.1%8.1%9.2%7.8%7.8%
47.
Oakland
13.1%13.6%13.1%13.4%12.4%13.1%
48.
Minneapolis
10.1%9.8%10.4%9.7%9.5%9.9%
49.
Wichita
6.9%7.7%7.7%8.3%7.2%7.6%
50.
Arlington
9.5%9.2%8.9%9.7%9.1%9.3%

Welcome To Chapwood Index
The Real Cost Of Living Increase Index



The Chapwood Index reflects the true cost-of-living increase in America. Updated and released twice a year, it reports the unadjusted actual cost and price fluctuation of the top 500 items on which Americans spend their after-tax dollars in the 50 largest cities in the nation.

It exposes why middle-class Americans — salaried workers who are given routine pay hikes and retirees who depend on annual increases in their corporate pension and Social Security payments — can’t maintain their standard of living. Plainly and simply, the Index shows that their income can’t keep up with their expenses, and it explains why they increasingly have to turn to the government for entitlements to bail them out.

It’s because salary and benefit increases are pegged to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which for more than a century has purported to reflect the fluctuation in prices for a typical “basket of goods” in American cities — but which actually hasn’t done that for more than 30 years.

The middle class has seen its purchasing power decline dramatically in the last three decades, forcing more and more people to seek entitlements when their savings are gone. And as long as pay raises and benefit increases are tied to a false CPI, this trend will continue.

The myth that the CPI represents the increase in our cost of living is why the Chapwood Index was created. What differentiates it from the CPI is simple, but critically important. The Chapwood Index:
  • Reports the actual price increase of the 500 items on which most Americans spend their after-tax money. No gimmicks, no alterations, no seasonal adjustments; just real prices.
  • Shines a spotlight on the inaccuracy of the CPI, which is destroying the economic and emotional fiber of our country.
  • Shows how our dependence on the CPI is killing our middle class and why citizens increasingly are depending upon government entitlement programs to bail them out.
  • Claims to persuade Americans to become better-educated consumers and to take control of their spending habits and personal finances.
The inaccuracy of the CPI began in 1983, during a time of rampant inflation, when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics began to cook the books on its calculation in order to curb the increase in Social Security and federal pension payments.
But the change affected more than entitlements. Because increases in corporate salaries and retirement benefits have traditionally been tied to the CPI, the change affected everything. And now, 30 years later, everyone knows the long-term results. Ask anyone who relies on a salary or Social Security or a pension and he’ll tell you his annual increase in income doesn’t come close to his increase in expenses. What comes in is less than what goes out — a situation that spells disaster for average Americans.
“The data solidly supports what many Americans have suspected for years,” says the Chapwood Index’s founder, Ed Butowsky.
The CPI no longer measures the true increase required to maintain a constant standard of living. This is the main reason that more people are falling behind financially, and why more Americans rely on government entitlement programs.
Butowsky began calculating the Chapwood Index in 2008. Using social media, he surveyed his friends across the country to determine what they bought with their after-tax income. He narrowed the list down to the most frequent 500 items and asked his friends in America’s 50 largest cities to check the prices on those items periodically. The Index shows the fluctuation in each city in the cost of items such as:
Starbucks coffee, Advil, insurance, gasoline, sales and income taxes, tolls, fast food restaurants, toothpaste, oil changes, car washes, pizza, cable TV and Internet service, cellphone service, dry cleaning, movie tickets, cosmetics, gym memberships, home repairs, piano lessons, laundry detergent, light bulbs, school supplies, parking meters, pet food, underwear and People magazine.
The Index forces middle-class Americans to recognize that their dependence on income increases pegged to the much-lower CPI virtually guarantees that they will run out of money before they die, because people are living longer and there is a huge difference between the CPI and the real world.

As an example, the CPI rose 0.8 percent in 2014. But in Boston, the Chapwood Index shows that the real cost of living increase was 10.7 percent. This means that if you work in the Boston area and got an 0.8 percent raise in your salary, it wasn’t nearly enough to cover the increase in your day-to-day expenses.

It was especially bad in San Jose, CA , where the Chapwood Index shows a 13.7 percent rise in the cost of living. Even the city with the lowest increase, Colorado Springs, CO , showed a 6.6 percent rise, a 5.8 percent higher than the CPI.

So, wherever you live, you showed a higher income. But at the end of the year, you spent all of it — and more.
The unintended consequence of the CPI is that people who depend on Social Security and pensions don’t get what they need,” Butowsky says. “Our hope is that people will review the Index, see what the real cost of living is where they live and understand that it leaves them exposed, and consult with a financial adviser to plan for the future.\

Read more about Problems with the CPI and how the Chapwood Index was created.​

The Chapwood Index Inspiration​



Ed Butowsky’s motivation to create the Chapwood Index came from a desire to help people rescue their finances from fixed-income despair after the passing of his mother. Ed’s mother was divorced, and because of the CPI, her alimony payments were under-adjusted. They failed to reflect her actual cost of living percentage increase year in and year out. Slowly, her ability to make ends meet deteriorated, and she was forced to take a job at Saks Fifth Avenue in order to afford birthday gifts for her grandchildren and other necessities. When Ed’s mother was diagnosed with cancer, she suffered through agonizing rounds of chemotherapy and continued working at Saks because she had no other way to meet her financial needs.

How did Butowsky’s mother end up like this? She fell victim to a fixed income based on the flawed CPI that failed to accurately reflect inflation.