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Uglytruth

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fed head is on the tele flat telling everyone that inflation is a problem, what it is way above trend, that they will be raising rates soon, and so on
All I heard is we are really bad at our job.
Nothing but immoral degenerates in suits manipulating everyone's lives.
 

Scorpio

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follow up to the fed meet,

after powell spoke, and during, metals were getting the heave to, out with the bath water

and here this am, more of the same, red on the metals

which is completely the opposite of what we interpreted and expected regarding any future 'inflationary' events, which of course is now the present

talking with a person yesterday,

a warehouse with completed projects is being raided for parts,
unsold completed products are being pulled back in and stripped of certain needed parts to keep production lines going
what a massive cost to any company

pay the labor to procure it, move it back to manuf facility, strip the packaging, strip the parts needed, then do what with the rest of it?

crazy chit going on as everyone tries to keep their companies operating

and another,

a needed little part, a chip of course, used to go for $1 in bulk, last shipment they paid $30 each for that stupid part

crazy chit
 

Uglytruth

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Pulled from comments on ZH about the fed. They are not fooling many anymore. It's sad that a group of immoral degenerates in suits manipulate so many life's.

* Neoclassical economists have always excelled in creating wealth of the evaporating kind.

* Real wealth doesn’t have a nasty habit of evaporating again.

* The Fed = Obese Karen who gives off the illusion of authority or strength. But if they had that authority or strength interest rates would've been 5%+ a decade ago.

* " where the fed's lowest tolerable number (LTN) for the s&p 500 currently stands"


I like to keep it simple... Good place to start is to just use the 100 week MA (SPX) and then cross reference them with narratives...

Last 2 times the SPX was at (or below), was 2018 (taper tantrum), March 2020 (pre CARES ACT) crash...

There was a blip in 2016... But previous to that was June '10 (QE1), and August ('11) QE2...

So basically ~ 5 out of 5 times, the thing that SAVED the market was the FED... And EVERY TIME, it was when SPX hit the 100 week MA (or dipped below)...

That number RIGHT NOW is 3822 (but it's sloping upwards, so in 5 weeks time it'll be higher)...

What's important about 5 weeks?... The number 100, naturally (so you have to go back that many candles to tweak the slope of the MA)... We're on CANDLE #95 since the March '20 lows... So, 5 weeks from now, that slope is going to start nudging higher... If the market doesn't do a deep dive in the next 5 weeks, the deep part of the dive will be higher than what it is today... After that, you'd be getting into different technicals to determine a bottom, but suffice it to say, a BREAK BELOW the 100 wee MA is gonna provoke some kind of policy response...

* My guess is the Fed has no choice. Inflation will strip democrats of power. A lower stock market will strip many of wealth. Wealth can always be regained IF YOU UAVE POWER. if you do not have power, you will have neither.

* the Fed is f#cked either way. This is why I believe these non stop pump and dump cycles will continue and the market will keep legging down. They are desperately trying to keep the major crash out of the news cycle. The pump gives their cronies time to sell their crap to the dipschidt dip buyers without an avalanche. The trick is that they have to pull this off before the dippers join the sell side and wipe out the cronies.

* This entire Article should be re-written. I will take on example and show how it could be changed to reflect the reality of these "powerful' people (FED) and what they WANT versus the BS we are reading here:

" “While ‘deflation’ is the overarching threat longer-term, the Fed is also potentially confronted by a shorter-term “inflationary” threat."

CORRECTED: “While ‘inflation’ is the overarching REALITY RIGHT NOW, the Fed is also potentially wanting and planning a higher “inflationary” REALITY which is what they wanted all along. They will ACT as if they are being pressured when in fact they WANT INFLATION and will simply change the Inflation Calculations to reflect LOWER INFLATION FIGURES in the NARRATIVES. They will report it as if what they did was to have achieved a GOAL of lower inflation when in fact HIGHER INFLATION IS the CLEAR GOAL of their policy which the people will finally come to realize. Inflation will continue to be in excess of 15%, and reported in the short term as if it is 7%. Ultimately they will keep inflation REPORTEDLY as if it is 3% which will also be a lie. THEY WANT 20% inflation which serves their masters."

* The fed is not working for you, but for their friends and families, and they want everything that you own. Working to help you is what they will never do. Furthermore, anything that accidentally benefits you means that they benefit from it more than you. They will come for you straight after.
 

Uglytruth

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Comments on ZH. I blew up what really stuck out at me.

aint $hit happen' with gold until Title III, Section 301(b) of H.R.4741 is passed and this IMF paper implemented.

Text - H.R.4741 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congress

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15224.pdf

They going negative rates on paper accounts while paying interest on digital "FED accounts for all". New "FED now" system going online next year.

https://www.frbservices.org/financial-services/fednow/prepare-for-fednow

https://www.swift.com/news-events/webinars/iso-20022-migration-everything-you-need-know

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/3571/text

You really didn't believe J. Powell when he got on 60 minutes and said, "The FED prints money" did you? That there should of been your first clue that they don't.

If you believe they do then you might get rid of your dollars on real assets like real estate, equities, gold and silver. Only later to se those assets crash by 90% facilitating further wealth transfer and providing an excuse to implement the a fore mentioned policies.

Then, when the FED is truly printing money, everyone will think, "They were doing this before and looked what happened.

QE is not money printing. Look at the 30 year bond since the first QE. Hell the FED will tell you QE isn't money printing ...

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publicat...ntitative-easing-how-well-does-this-tool-work

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publicat...ernative-explanation-for-todays-low-inflation

Bottome line; you should be saving your money right now when the FED wants you getting rid of it. Then, later, when asset prices drop, you can pick up some bargains.

Not financial advice; you may want to listen to the bankers and precious metal dealers, they're on the same page.
 

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Uglytruth

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Da blue tongue bear was right again.


Inflation Comes For Your Closet: Cotton Prices Hit Decade High Amid Global Deficit​

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, JAN 31, 2022 - 08:40 PM
The global fashion industry is on the rebound as BMO Capital boosted Under Armour's rating to Outperform from Sector Perform. Fashion retailers breathe a sigh of relief as demand picks up but comes at a high price for consumers.
This year, about two-thirds of fashion executives expect to increase costs due to snarled supply chains. Average prices are expected to rise about 3% across all clothing and apparel, according to the State of Fashion 2022 report by the Business of Fashion and McKinsey & Co.
About 15% of respondents said clothing and apparel prices could jump by more than 10%.
Inflation in fashion hasn't just been due to transportation bottlenecks and rising shipping costs but also rocketing commodity prices. Bloomberg reports cotton futures have soared to a decade high on Monday due to a "global deficit of the fiber squeezing mills holding huge short positions."
March cotton futures in New York rose as much as 2% to $1.26 per pound, the highest since June 2011. Prices are up for the seventh straight quarter, the longest streak since 1959.

"Supply disruptions and soaring costs pushed the industry to draw on stockpiles, which have practically vanished at ICE Futures U.S., with higher prices unable to lure supplies into the exchange-tracked warehouses," Bloomberg said.
High prices for the fiber indicate inflation is coming to shirts, blue jeans, dresses, sweats, and so much more.
Demand for cotton worldwide "is simply not being met," said O.A. Cleveland, a consultant and professor emeritus at Mississippi State University.
"Industry group Cotlook on Friday shifted its global outlook for 2021-22 back to a deficit, the second shortfall in a row, citing diminished production in top exporter U.S. and India. More plantings in the coming season have been put into question by soaring costs for crop inputs including fertilizer," Bloomberg continued.
Cleveland said the cotton dynamics are "extremely bullish," and the "last time I recalled such a situation, I stopped forecasting futures prices once the market reached $1.50 a pound. Will the May or July futures price ascend to such a level? I do not know. This is a no man's land."
It's still unclear how consumers will act when their favorite clothing brand prices continue to rise. But since clothes are considered discretionary spending, there will be a point where consumers will buy fewer of them due to higher prices.
 

Scorpio

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max pressure this am,

stocks getting hit,
bonds getting hit,
metals getting marked down
crypts moved to the discount bin
crude getting a minor haircut
and grains down

that covers a lot of territory
 

Casey Jones

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Metals down, is just the morning monkeyhammer switched on.

Stonks down? At some point the banksters are going to decide, why fight it? It's time to pull the rug out, and fleece them some Muppets. Let it free-fall 20 percent; and then, they can grab more of that ZIRP and BUY-BUY-BUY. While X percent of the former Middle Class is reduced to penury.

Nothing is real in this Potemkin economy. Not the rises, and not the falls.
 

solarion

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Yields have barely moved...a couple ticks higher only. Looks like a lot of speshul folks will be rushing to the "safety" of the US dollar.

Probably we have paypal and meta to thank for this takedown. Their earnings flat out sucked. I think faceplant turned meta blamed inflation specifically for their poor quarter. Imagine that, businesses with near zero inventory aren't as anxious to blow a bundle on advertising.
 

Scorpio

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the wires are going nutz with the fb flop,

the panic is being applied to try to attempt to influence the fed to keep the spigots wide open is the way it looks to me,

as realistically, just a very short time ago, fb was $175, and it is still currently in that $250 level AFTER the big decreases,

point being, it is still up massively since not that long ago,

so there is exactly nothing to be concerned about,
 

Casey Jones

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the wires are going nutz with the fb flop,

the panic is being applied to try to attempt to influence the fed to keep the spigots wide open is the way it looks to me,

as realistically, just a very short time ago, fb was $175, and it is still currently in that $250 level AFTER the big decreases,

point being, it is still up massively since not that long ago,

so there is exactly nothing to be concerned about,
Bill Blain, reprinted at ZH, has an interesting take on this.


His take: This is now a mature technology and market. It arose with blinding speed, and now it's become obsolete just as fast. It's become a bureaucracy; and bureaucracies resist change.

Unmentioned by Blain, it also has squandered much goodwill and credibility with their censorship for those who deviate from the Party Line.

But, Blain notes, Facebook is now for old people. And Meta is a late start to the "Metaverse." Zuck does not have Early-Adopter advantages.

And the market, driven by herd instinct and Mass Formation Psychosis, is just now waking up to realizing something is very, very wrong.
 

BarnacleBob

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Bill Blain, reprinted at ZH, has an interesting take on this.


His take: This is now a mature technology and market. It arose with blinding speed, and now it's become obsolete just as fast. It's become a bureaucracy; and bureaucracies resist change.

Unmentioned by Blain, it also has squandered much goodwill and credibility with their censorship for those who deviate from the Party Line.

But, Blain notes, Facebook is now for old people. And Meta is a late start to the "Metaverse." Zuck does not have Early-Adopter advantages.

And the market, driven by herd instinct and Mass Formation Psychosis, is just now waking up to realizing something is very, very wrong.

Speaking of realizing something is wrong with FB, we have several family members that deactivated their FB accounts for privacy & censorship issues. About 4 or 5 weeks ago, their accounts, like magic were reactivated and began to show up in feeds.

The wife & daughter were talking about the unauthorized reactivations when I said that FB must be in trouble, as they changed their name and began reactivating accounts, as the gross number of accounts & users justify the prices of advertising. When these gross numbers quit growing or begin to decline, the value of advertising also declines with them. IMO, FB is being obsoleted by the growing number of media platforms being released. Their market share is I suspect dropping like a rock, and the market is beginning to realize it....

If it was only one unauthorized reactivation I wouldnt take much notice, but when its three (3), its not a mistake.
 

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Speaking of realizing something is wrong with FB, we have several family members that deactivated their FB accounts for privacy & censorship issues. About 4 or 5 weeks ago, their accounts, like magic were reactivated and began to show up in feeds.

The wife & daughter were talking about the unauthorized reactivations when I said that FB must be in trouble, as they changed their name and began reactivating accounts, as the gross number of accounts & users justify the prices of advertising. When these gross numbers quit growing or begin to decline, the value of advertising also declines with them. IMO, FB is being obsoleted by the growing number of media platforms being released. Their market share is I suspect dropping like a rock, and the market is beginning to realize it....

If it was only one unauthorized reactivation I wouldnt take much notice, but when its three (3), its not a mistake.
Face___k is like the Hotel California.

You can check out (delete and close account) any time you like, but you can NEVER...LEAVE.

I had a Face___k account for a brief time...a month; during which I realized it was as disorganized and illogical as its autistic founder and principal. This was just when the algorithm fake accounts, and the data hoovering, were coming to be known.

I closed and deleted. Three computers later, a year or so ago, the account was brought back from the dead.

I leave it to ramble through cyberspace, zombie-like. I haven't even gone back to try to kill it again. It is what it is; and now I no longer even click LIKE on videos. It annoys me that I can't use the RSS page to download MP3 podcasts, now...I have to go to one of the suspect gatekeeper sites. All the browsers stopped supporting/showing RSS feeds.

One old computer I never upgraded, does still; and that's how I get what I get.

The tech geeks and spurgs are completely out of control; and ANYTHING that destroys their companies and puts them back into sheltered workshops, I'm in favor of.
 

BackwardsEngineeer

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In anticipation of stuck trucks we have been loading up on all fronts, just got back from Costco, between there, our full grocery, auto parts store and the feed store.... laid out close to 2k without all the amazon stuff still coming. Prices are through the roof across the board, better spend it now as several items were being limited in quantity and others just could not be had.

I honestly think it's for real this time guys....
 

Casey Jones

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In anticipation of stuck trucks we have been loading up on all fronts, just got back from Costco, between there, our full grocery, auto parts store and the feed store.... laid out close to 2k without all the amazon stuff still coming. Prices are through the roof across the board, better spend it now as several items were being limited in quantity and others just could not be had.

I honestly think it's for real this time guys....
It had to happen.

They've been pushing it so hard. Everything they do, seems bent on either causing a collapse or a revolt.

Better it happens this way. I can do without for a time. It'll be painful, but not like Bosnia.
 

Uglytruth

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the gross number of accounts & users justify the prices of advertising.
Wonder how many of the accounts belong to dead people. Maybe do an age check & see if they are 163 year old democrat voters. :winks2:
 
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Scorpio

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crude came roaring back yesterday, and eventually closed not only positive, but above 90 bucks a barrel

and here this am, it is off and running again, eclipsing 91 a barrel currently

this impacts every person, every business, and not a word from the admin regarding this

the silence is the story
 

solarion

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Pretty healthy pullback in the dollar index this past week...likely because the fed did nothing but blow smoke at their last babblefest meeting while the eurozone criminal banksters are selling their narrative that they'll be "fighting inflation" via their pathetically tiny interest rate hikes. Thus far the drop in the dollar index has seemingly only affected oil, but the PMs should be getting a hand up from it...at some point.

I mean higher energy prices very clearly make PM exploration, recovery, and refining more expensive....and a cheaper dollar should make metals worth more relative to FRNs. It'll be interesting to see if the metals keep getting taken down on dollar strength AND dollar weakness.

1643980244097.png


The fed is going to have to raise their silly fed funds rate next month or risk losing what little credibility they've left. They'll likely do a token 25 basis point hike...which even without surging energy prices wouldn't mean squat, but they have to be seen to be doing...something.

1643980749241.png


lol What could possibly go wrong? This current uptrend is a bounce off the lowest reading for oil/gold since these guys began tracking it. The gold price simply didn't get hit over the head like nearly every other commodity did and recovered very quickly to hit a new all time high.

1643980957387.png


Edit: Beautiful daily take down of gold and silver paper prices...right at the usual time. 8:30am Eastern standard. Up half a percent to down half a percent in a few minutes. ...now down a full percent on silver. Look at all that dollar STRENGTH...er weakness. lol

1643982090672.png
 
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solarion

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Bitcoin up huge at nearly 10% and back over $40k...there must be news somewhere, though I've not seen it. Oil up a whopping 2.57% @ 92.56. Useless dollar index up a bit but fading...and the yield on the 10y briefly touched 1.937% before retreating.

Crazy markets are acting crazy. Presumably an allegedly strong job market(yeah right) will give the fed cover to tighten, but then the nasdaq is up 111 and the dow is down about the same...which is backwards. Then again the techs have really been monkey hammered hard YTD, so maybe it's just a bit of bargain shopping by people who likely should be selling the rip instead of buying the dip.
 

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Bitcoin up huge at nearly 10% and back over $40k...there must be news somewhere, though I've not seen it. Oil up a whopping 2.57% @ 92.56. Useless dollar index up a bit but fading...and the yield on the 10y briefly touched 1.937% before retreating.

Crazy markets are acting crazy. Presumably an allegedly strong job market(yeah right) will give the fed cover to tighten, but then the nasdaq is up 111 and the dow is down about the same...which is backwards. Then again the techs have really been monkey hammered hard YTD, so maybe it's just a bit of bargain shopping by people who likely should be selling the rip instead of buying the dip.
When the market moves on nothing, in sudden leaps...it's almost-certainly some sort of manipulation.

And it shows a disconnect from fundamentals. Either it's a manipulated drop, or a bubble; or else it's the collapse of a bubble.

Fundamental values don't change. New revelations can show that what investors believed, was false and untrue, but that's a reappraisal. Without such news...it's algos and computer traders, churning and manipulating.
 

solarion

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Everything is manipulated, up and down...particularly the price of money. The interesting thing is when one watches the manipulation of specific markets relative to other markets, one commodity relative to another, etc. Commodities are plainly beginning a new super cycle with energy leading the way.

This is going to raise the "price" of other commodities dramatically...even eventually <gasp> the ones that aren't typically allowed to run unchecked....because they make it plain how broken the "money" system is. 10.5% daily moves in bitcoin do likewise. People can scream bubble all they wish, but we're in an everything(that's not gold or silver) bubble by design.
 

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Bitcoin up huge at nearly 10% and back over $40k...there must be news somewhere, though I've not seen it. Oil up a whopping 2.57% @ 92.56. Useless dollar index up a bit but fading...and the yield on the 10y briefly touched 1.937% before retreating.

Crazy markets are acting crazy. Presumably an allegedly strong job market(yeah right) will give the fed cover to tighten, but then the nasdaq is up 111 and the dow is down about the same...which is backwards. Then again the techs have really been monkey hammered hard YTD, so maybe it's just a bit of bargain shopping by people who likely should be selling the rip instead of buying the dip.

yep, that is some serious moving going on

lumber too went full limit in seconds, with a large overhang of bidders

been limit up for 3 days now and currently showing no sign of drawing back
 

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Hyper tiger in one of his posts, Shorts will be decimated and then the longs will be wiped out. Followed bankruptcies and reorganization. All these Wall Street bets and other similar sites have created a false notion that shorts are the problem, That their darling companies are being unfairly targeted by short sellers and hedge funds,. Now that the shorts are out of the game why are stocks still loosing a quarter of their magical value in one trading session. Why are are stocks falling of the cliff with no bids coming in? Where are the buyers of fractional shares.
Destruction of equity and savers has become organized thievery. Soon the longs will painfully discover the real value .
 

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Hyper tiger in one of his posts, Shorts will be decimated and then the longs will be wiped out. Followed bankruptcies and reorganization. All these Wall Street bets and other similar sites have created a false notion that shorts are the problem, That their darling companies are being unfairly targeted by short sellers and hedge funds,. Now that the shorts are out of the game why are stocks still loosing a quarter of their magical value in one trading session. Why are are stocks falling of the cliff with no bids coming in? Where are the buyers of fractional shares.
Destruction of equity and savers has become organized thievery. Soon the longs will painfully discover the real value .
Short sellers are not the problem. They're actually a buffer in the market - providing a source of buyers to a falling stock, if there is value there. Short-sellers buy a falling stock to cover their short sales; and without them - as happened with Adelphia Cable 20 years ago - the stock just plunges.

Adelphia was a rarity in that there was deep corruption and false data from within, tied to the Rigas family that created the company; and no one saw it coming, so there were no short sellers. The stock, IIRC, fell from about $30 to less than a tenth of that, in the space of a week, once an IRS investigation was launched.

To blame short-sellers for poor-performing stocks, is to take advantage of public ignorance. Short-sellers sell overpriced stocks, short. Because they believe the price doesn't reflect honest valuation. It's a pressure down on an overpriced stock, as short-sellers roll their shorts over. Then, if/when the market adjusts, short-sellers buy in, to cover. Preventing a panic-plunge.

Quoth-The-Raven talked at length a few years back of his TSLA shorts. He got out, because it was obvious that Musky was manipulating share prices, with untrue Twitter information; that the SEC was not going to enforce its regulations; that the buyers of TSLA were engaging in a religious rite, disregarding all facts and prudent analysis.

So, TSLA is set up for wild swings. Up...and down. Short sellers are only involved in their absence in that stock.
 

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Central banks continue to buy gold
February 3, 2022

Mukesh Kumar
Senior Analyst, India
World Gold Council


Global official gold reserves increased by 14.2t in December according to date released by the IMF.1 Healthy purchases from Turkey and Uzbekistan lifted gross purchases during the month. This marked the tenth monthly purchases for 2021.

Central banks purchased a net 14.2t of gold in December 2021*

mail


*Data to 31 December 2021. Note: Japan’s reported 81t increase in its gold reserves in March 2021 has been excluded as this was the culmination of an off-market transaction between two different divisions within the Ministry of Finance.
Source: IMF IFS, Respective Central Banks, World Gold Council

Gross purchases were dominated by three central banks. Turkey purchased 10.1t in December, taking its gold reserves to 394.2t. Uzbekistan added 8.4t during the month after a sale of 21.5t during November. Such purchases and sales are common for Uzbekistan due to its active management of gold reserves, something we’ve highlighted previously.

India purchased an additional 3.7t during December taking its total gold reserves to 754.1t by the end of the year. India’s gold reserves increased by 77.5t in 2021, the biggest increase since 2009 when it bought 200t from the IMF. Kyrgyz Republic (1.1t), Czech Republic (0.4t) and Ukraine (0.3t) were also notable purchasers during the month.

Gross sales in December were concentrated among a small group of central banks: Kazakhstan (-4.8t), Sri Lanka (-3.6t) and Poland (-1.6t). Sri Lanka’s sale represented around half its gold reserves and was done to help bolster the liquidity of its foreign reserves, which had hit a 12-year low in November.2 However, the door was left open to future gold purchases when foreign reserves have increased.

The broad range of buying in 2021 has shown there is still significant appetite for gold as a reserve asset. While demand from central banks can, at times, be less predictable than other sources of gold demand – given it is often policy rather than market driven – we remain confident that the overall trend of net buying will continue into 2022.
 

BarnacleBob

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Central banks continue to buy gold
February 3, 2022

Mukesh Kumar
Senior Analyst, India
World Gold Council


Global official gold reserves increased by 14.2t in December according to date released by the IMF.1 Healthy purchases from Turkey and Uzbekistan lifted gross purchases during the month. This marked the tenth monthly purchases for 2021.

Central banks purchased a net 14.2t of gold in December 2021*

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*Data to 31 December 2021. Note: Japan’s reported 81t increase in its gold reserves in March 2021 has been excluded as this was the culmination of an off-market transaction between two different divisions within the Ministry of Finance.
Source: IMF IFS, Respective Central Banks, World Gold Council

Gross purchases were dominated by three central banks. Turkey purchased 10.1t in December, taking its gold reserves to 394.2t. Uzbekistan added 8.4t during the month after a sale of 21.5t during November. Such purchases and sales are common for Uzbekistan due to its active management of gold reserves, something we’ve highlighted previously.

India purchased an additional 3.7t during December taking its total gold reserves to 754.1t by the end of the year. India’s gold reserves increased by 77.5t in 2021, the biggest increase since 2009 when it bought 200t from the IMF. Kyrgyz Republic (1.1t), Czech Republic (0.4t) and Ukraine (0.3t) were also notable purchasers during the month.

Gross sales in December were concentrated among a small group of central banks: Kazakhstan (-4.8t), Sri Lanka (-3.6t) and Poland (-1.6t). Sri Lanka’s sale represented around half its gold reserves and was done to help bolster the liquidity of its foreign reserves, which had hit a 12-year low in November.2 However, the door was left open to future gold purchases when foreign reserves have increased.

The broad range of buying in 2021 has shown there is still significant appetite for gold as a reserve asset. While demand from central banks can, at times, be less predictable than other sources of gold demand – given it is often policy rather than market driven – we remain confident that the overall trend of net buying will continue into 2022.

Do you really think & believe that the secretive covert central banks would actually provide accurate & truthful information & data that outlines their various economic & financial activities?

I have a bridge to sell ya if you do!

These moronic letter writers take their nonsense to way to far....
 

Scorpio

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10 yr tapped 2% today before pulling back to somewhere near 1.9

large move for sure there and will impact rates at all levels

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Scorpio

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I am with you, in that the 2 handle is going to put a damper in things,

mort rates and affordability are already taking a hit at +.5 to +.75 to a 30 yr

this and lumber back over $1100

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Scorpio

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been wondering about this, and right on cue, ZH provides the background,



Consumer Debt Growth Tumbles 50% Amid Sharp Slowdown In Credit Card Usage, Decline In Student Loans​

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, FEB 07, 2022 - 03:23 PM
One month after a shocking consumer credit report, which saw the biggest increase in history driven by a mind-blowing surge in revolving credit (i.e., credit card usage), moments ago the Fed released the latest consumer credit report for the month of December which saw a dramatic drop in growth rate, with total credit rising just $18.9BN, well below the consensus estimate of $25 billion, and a 50% plunge from the November increase of $38.8 billion.
Some details:
In the last month of the year, consumer credit rose at a 5.1% annual rate to $4.431trillion, according to the Federal Reserve. The total increase was $18.898BN from the previous month.

Looking at the components, the big highlight was the collapse in credit card growth, which one month after surging at a record monthly pace of $19.3 billion, collapsed to just $2.11 billion, the lowest monthly increase since April when it was a negative print. One possible reason: not only are consumers tapped out - as even Morgan Stanley now warns - but they suddenly find themselves nursing a prodigious credit card bill which they will have to pay back for the next several months, leading to continued slow down in spending in 2022, just as we have cautioned would happen.

more here:

 

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Interesting morning. After a nice run yesterday, gold and silver were selling off a bit heading into the usual beat down hour in NYC 8-9am. Silver was down nearly a quarter and gold was down nearly 5 bux, but then the metals instead began a rally that pushed both into positive territory. This despite the dixy being up 0.26% and 10y yields climbing again...now at 1.956%.

Aside from the consumer credit data released late afternoon yesterday I can't find any more recent news to justify the continued advancement in the monetary metals, so I'll just chalk it up to more people finally "getting it". Perhaps someone got a whiff of the fake CPI data coming out this week and/or the PPI data next week. Who knows.
 

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To me, they are all looking for new areas to extract from,

they are getting wary on some of the normal go to plays like fakebook, tesla, etc.

crypts have had a run and come back some,

but they are looking for fresh meat to chase yields in,

metals and commods offer just that, much as we have seen in this bogus oil run

just as it wasn'r worth 30 bucks or even negative one time, it isn't worth 90 either,
nothing in the supply chain either way calls for either of those extremes
 

solarion

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EO posted about the big commercial foodstuff supplier Sysco and their quarterly earnings reports. In those they've been talking about their price inputs rising rather significantly. ...like +14.6% in this most recent quarter. Of course the fed and BLS don't care about "unimportant" price inflation in meaningless luxuries, like food, housing, and/or energy, but the rank and file tend to care about the prices of things without which they die.

There are also some state treasuries talking about stacking gold to protect the purchasing power of their digits. Certainly there are a lot of reasons for gold and silver to be soaring, but most of those reasons have been there for years, if not decades. Guess the reasons are just becoming more compelling as real interest rates become more negative.
 

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thought it interesting,

one of the rag writers was speaking of a no brainer trade, virtually a can't miss trade,

and it was a double short etf on bond prices, ie that rates would be going up,

I appreciate the why, and I get it,
but just how much runway is there?

seems as though much of the market is thinking 4-5 .25 pt increases this year,
but how many believe the fed will continue to push on that string without any serious blowback?

last time they tried this, the markets went into a tizzy fit and the fed promptly reversed position,

now sure, we did not have the inflationary backdrop that we currently do, so the circumstances are indeed different,

so how far can the fed push, and how much stomach do they have for any negative consequences arising from that policy?
 

solarion

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so how far can the fed push, and how much stomach do they have for any negative consequences arising from that policy?
The fed will raise the rates they control for exactly two reasons.

1) To save some small measure of credibility...IE...they said they would.
2) So that they can lower them again later when the real pain comes.

We all know they cannot raise rates enough to arrest a 7% price inflation clip. Rates would need to be 10% for that to happen...so the fed raising rates will not stop price inflation, it will merely blow up markets. They merely wish to be seen fighting inflation, to give them cover to continue debasing the dollar imo.

My own WAG is that we see fed funds peak at 1.25% by the middle of 2023. That's all of 4 quarter point hikes. Enough to do significant damage to the bloated housing market and to raise the cost of debt service for treasury and corporate interests, but not enough to do squat to slow price inflation. Probably barely enough to get US corps to slow down their own share re-purchases.
 

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I am with you,
I just don't see a concerted effort to effect real change

just more of the same
 

solarion

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The path of least resistance. If they continue debasing the currency then they and DeeCee can simply blame producers for rising prices....whereas if the chairman of insider trading raises rates and blows things up then it'll be clear who to blame.

Just more spineless "not on my watch" syndrome.
 

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CPI is out and kicking a$$

now talking 50pt hike soon,

metals getting crushed, bought that

2 yr kicking, 10yr looking to go over 2 today as it is 1.99 already on the newz
 

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inflation hottest since 1982 they are saying,

now the talking heads are stating, relax, another quarter or so and the inflation will dissipate

uhhh huh,

come out of your hidey holes you pompous bstrds

real world says that number is a joke, as it is much higher already