Ramblings

[Casey Jones]

Agree, it has been obvious for some while that the dips have just been dead cats that institutions were selling into. Clearly a reason to sell the rip and forget about buying the dip, but habits die hard for some.

Tough to wrap my head around the anti-Asian hatred thing. I suppose from the standpoint of a race baiting commie dbag, they're an inconvenient minority in America, since they're hardworking and successful despite being a minority, but that should cause people to model after them, not attack them. Oh well, I'll never understand the progressive mindset I guess.

"Asian" is an imprecise label. Depending on the culture, it can also mean Arabs and even North Africans.

Americans don't intrinsically hate Asians. They're easily absorbed into the culture - when they want to be. They easily understand and comply with our values.

When they want to. Japanese and Korean immigrants got with it, right away. Chinese have been here for 150 years, and what drunken lower-class white Europeans wouldn't do - blast a railroad right-of-way across the Sierra Nevada mountains - this, the Chinese of the time, did, seemingly without over-exertion.

But now we have, both, the Bedouins - followers of Mohammed, rejectors of learning - and the Maoist Chinese. The first do not well assimilate because they cannot - intelligence, in many cases; and their absolutist religion, in other cases. The Maoists have their religion, their secular political religion - and come to destroy, not to participate.

 

[solarion]

I can dig it. Like I said, I don't really understand the hatred, but I've seen enough evidence to accept that black on Asian violence is a real thing. Doubtless there are a few bad apples of Asian decent, but statistically Asians commit far fewer violent crimes than nearly any other demographic...at least in Amerika. Which makes it difficult for me to wrap my head around the hostility, but I suppose if one were a coward, they may choose to attack those that are least likely and/or able to defend themselves.

City officials, including the Police Department, say these assaults are part of a larger crime picture where gangs of kids take advantage of a vulnerable group of small stature. But Mo participated in a 2008 survey by the Police Department in which about 300 strong-arm robberies were analyzed. "In 85 percent of the physical assault crimes, the victims were Asian and the perpetrators were African American," she said.

Dirty secret of black-on-Asian violence is out

The recent incidents of black violence against Asians is the perfect opportunity to open a...

www.sfgate.com

It seems absurd to me, but I've never seen the appeal of San Francisco, so I've not been in years.

 

[Scorpio]

even the low iq's can look around and see who is a perceived threat,

the japanese came here with a industrious attitude and a freedom to go get after it, and they have.
at the college around here anyway, they are scoring higher, choosing higher level degrees, and outpacing the whites or others

that is the amerikan dream is it not?

but to those who watch, they are a threat to their way of life, as they lead completely contrary lives,
so there is jealousy, fear, and all manner of other emotions grinding on them

I watch white kids get po'd about 'the asians' because of this, when point of fact is, the asians haven't done anything wrong.
In many cases, the public school systems have failed the whites and others, preparing them for the next steps

then when you enter the low iq's, forget about it, they are so threatened that they will do all manner of things to try to square the books, and of course it doesn't work that way. They will continue on living their miserable lives, and the asians will get up and get after it.

 

[Au-myn]

COMEX Gold and Silver Prices​

March 02, 2022

Craig Hemke ​

TF Metals Report​

As anyone who has watched the precious metals for any amount of time will tell you, price rallies on geopolitical concerns rarely hold. The same might be true today. However, do not make the mistake of thinking that the current rally in gold and silver is based solely upon geopolitics. There's a lot more going on at present, and those drivers will persist regardless of the outcome of the Ukraine Crisis.
So let's just take a few minutes today to consider what is driving prices and then assess where prices may head from here. Yes, the ongoing crisis in Ukraine is building a "war premium" into the price of COMEX gold, and this premium will persist for as long as the conflict continues.
But the long-term effects of the hostilities are myriad and currently unmeasurable. Yes, the exclusion of Russia from the SWIFT system that we wrote about last week will have long-lasting deleterious impacts on the U.S. dollar. But it's more than that.
In our 2022 annual forecast, we discussed the trends that would prevail later this year and how these trends would drive precious metals prices higher. One of those trends is a growing understanding that the Fed is trapped, that they will never be able to hike the fed funds rate as often as the pundits suggest, and as such, inflation-adjusted or "real" rates would remain negative and begin moving substantially more negative later in the year.
Well, the Ukraine Crisis has dramatically sped up this timetable. Already, forecasts of Fed rate hikes are falling dramatically, and suddenly even a 25 basis point hike later this month is in question. So now the Fed faces the dilemma that we discussed in our annual forecast. To wit, they can’t hike rates into a building recession, and their inability to hike rates— all while commodity prices are soaring—will lead to deeply negative real rates for the foreseeable future.
THIS is why precious metal prices are rallying. Yes, the war premium is a real thing, but even if the Ukraine war ends tomorrow, the damage to the global economy has already been done.
Check again the latest commodity prices. Commodities were already soaring in 2022 as the Chinese Credit Impulse surges and China buys everything that isn't nailed down. But now shortages and embargoes are looking to dramatically impact the prices of key commodities going forward. Crude oil is over $100 per barrel. Copper and all of the base metals are screaming higher. And the grains—staples like wheat, corn, and soybeans—are all at record price highs.
These commodities are all major industrial and consumer staple inputs. The rising prices must then be passed along to consumers or producer margins will shrink and companies will be squeezed. Faced with higher costs, layoffs will follow and the growing stagflationary recession will worsen. This has always been the most likely outcome of the global Covid shutdowns, and the Ukraine Crisis has only exacerbated the issues.
Already, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow predictor has slashed its "growth" forecast for the U.S. first quarter to 0.00%. How much lower will it go? And don't forget, the accepted economic definition of a recession is two quarters in a row of negative GDP growth. It now appears that Q1 2022 will qualify as quarter number one.
So, the conversation is rapidly turning from multiple rate hikes and falling inflation to minimal rate hikes and persistent/worsening inflation. This is what we expected when we wrote our annual forecast in early January. The war in Europe has simply sped up the process.
Finally, let's look at the price charts so that you'll know what levels to watch and what levels will set off renewed surges of buying interest. In COMEX gold, the move above $1920 is important because that level represents the psychological resistance of having once been the all-time high seen back in September of 2011. Once above $1920, the next target becomes the $1960 level that served twice as stiff resistance in late 2020.
However, $1960 will eventually be bested too, and once it is, the target becomes $2000. A gold price that begins with a "2" handle will drive an even deeper awareness of the renewed bull market, and things will take on a life of their own from there.
If you're not sure you can foresee that, then maybe you should check the weekly chart below. This is a classic technical setup of a cup, handle, and breakout that typically targets much higher prices in the weeks and months ahead.

And then there's COMEX silver. It has spent the past 18 months digesting and consolidating the 60% gains it posted over a three-week period back in 2020, and it is still contained within its price range of $22 to $28. However, it's now back above its 200-day moving average and the critical mid-range price of $25. Any weekly close above $28 would constitute a breakout. Once above $30, the momentum bulls will get excited and the next target quickly becomes $34. You can likely imagine the move in the mining shares when this happens, too.

So, what to do next? Well, first of all, pray for peace. War is always a tragedy, and any war that potentially pits nuclear-armed superpowers against each other is particularly dangerous. Let's hope things simmer down soon. However, as a precious metal investor, it's vitally important that you understand the forces that are now driving prices higher, regardless of the war's outcome. To that end, I hope you found this article helpful.

COMEX Gold and Silver Prices

Well, the Ukraine Crisis has dramatically sped up this timetable. Already, forecasts of Fed rate hikes are falling dramatically, and suddenly even a 25 basis point hike later this month is in question. So now the Fed faces the dilemma..

goldseek.com

 

[Scorpio]

metal stocks finally had a nice day today, been awhile

been looking for that confirm, as they have moved off their lows for awhile, but not with conviction,

we need more of what they showed today

and who knows, talked with a guy who is watching the SOU, and he says hidin' is war war and more war,
he was getting worried

 

[Au-myn]

I like what I see from the XAU and HUI breakouts and the Relative strength both have shown recently.
Once 26 Silver gets knocked out the Miners will crank it up another notch.

 

[RebelYell]

So. Let's say China attacks Taiwan next week. What prices move the most?

 

[solarion]

So. Let's say China attacks Taiwan next week. What prices move the most?

Gold...in nominal dollar terms, and silver in terms of percentage. ...and obviously arms dealers, but they're already hopping.

The miners significantly outperforming the metals in the past month.

 

[Scorpio]

Gold...in nominal dollar terms, and silver in terms of percentage. ...and obviously arms dealers, but they're already hopping.

View attachment 247449

The miners significantly outperforming the metals in the past month.

that isn't fair even a little bit,

the miners have been completely blown out of the water, so any 2 bit increase is a big % increase,

Whereas physical has held up pretty damn well while all of that was going on, meaning the percent increases aren't great, but they are just fine

the miners have a long friggin' ways to go to be worth chit,
name after name after name just pummeled, and some of them deservedly so

 

[Scorpio]

just a few of them, big decreases off their highs, as though they are chitcoin

 

[solarion]

...and every single one of those you just charted are in SILJ. AG and PAAS are the top 2 holdings at 22.47%.

 

[RebelYell]

Gold...in nominal dollar terms, and silver in terms of percentage. ...and obviously arms dealers, but they're already hopping.

Anybody got any more specific ideas? Russia had a big impact on palladium, nickel, wheat, oil, rubles and all Russian stocks. Maybe some other stuff too, but those are the ones I noticed.

If one wanted to bet on war with China too, what's the best way? Puts on Chinese ADRs? Or maybe rare earth metals? Don't most of them come from Mongolia? What about semiconductors? Is there a way to bet on the price of semiconductors?

Maybe Baltic dry index would fall too?

 

[Tbonz]

So. Let's say China attacks Taiwan next week. What prices move the most?

Oil and chips?

 

[Pyramid]

creepy, sleepy, comrade joe said "we" are releasing 30m barrels of oil.

The US consumes ~20m barrels per day if my limited research is correct. If reasonably accurate on both ends, that's a complete drop in the bucket, a 1.5 day supply. Can someone confirm? If accurate, seems like this fact is going unnoticed, especially by the MSM propaganda branch of the communist party, and the low IQ voters that support the communists. Correct me if I'm wrong please.

 

[solarion]

The BLS quietly revised Q4 2021 unit labor costs up 3 fold today from 0.3 to 0.9 while leaving productivity metrics unchanged.

That sounds like entrenched cost push inflation to me. Higher wages = higher prices = higher wages....

Fourth-quarter labor costs revised higher

The increase in labor costs in the fourth-quarter was raised to 0.9% from the initial estimate of 0.3%, the Labor Department said Thursday.

www.marketwatch.com

To fight this employers will of course cut the only costs they can readily control...labor. If all this sounds remarkably like stagflation, there's a reason for that.

Then there's the engineered energy crisis, which will drive inflation much higher.

JPMorgan calls for $185 oil if self sanctioning continues

Energy Intelligence reported Thursday that self sanctioning reduced Russian crude oil exports by ~2.5mb/d; were the restrictions to persist, JPMorgan estimates oil prices would rise to...

seekingalpha.com

 

[Au-myn]

02.03.2022 11:06
Posted in Economics

The Ministry of Finance supported the abolition of VAT on gold bars for individuals​

Text: Anastasia Selivanova
Quote in comment

Report a typo


Gold should become an alternative to investments in foreign currency, and in order to increase the demand for the precious metal in Russia, it would be logical to abolish VAT on its purchase from banks. This was stated by the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov.

Photo: Pavel Lisitsyn/RIA Novosti

He said that the department has already prepared a positive response to the bill of state Duma deputies, which involves the abolition of VAT for individuals for such operations.
"Against the background of an unstable geopolitical situation, investments in gold will be an ideal alternative to buying dollars. The US currency is more volatile, subject to various kinds of risks. Because of this, it cannot compete with precious metals," Siluanov said in a statement on the website of the Ministry of Finance.
Experts called the optimal share of gold in the investment portfolio
The abolition of value-added tax on the purchase of gold from banks for investment purposes has been discussed in recent years. The rate of 20% is valid for the purchase, while the reverse operation - the sale of the bullion to the bank - does not imply a VAT refund, depreciation of the very fact of investment. Two years earlier, the Ministry of Finance assumed that it would be able to abolish VAT on ingots after the precious metals marking system (GIIS DMDK) was fully operational.

Минфин поддержал отмену НДС на золотые слитки для физлиц

Минфин РФ поддерживает инициативу по отмене НДС на инвестиционное золото для физлиц. В ведомстве считают, что считая вложения в золото идеальной альтернативой скупке долларов на фоне нестабильной геополитической ситуации

rg.ru

 

[Scorpio]

finally someone mentioned that oil affects everything,

he stated you know the tesla body skins?
yeah, they are plastic

oil prices affect everything including their green dreams

those windmills are massive consumers of dinosaurs

those teslas and the rest? they too require dead dinosaurs to even exist

 

[gringott]

Fake Energy is much more expensive than fake money, fake news, even fake tits.

 

[Pyramid]

The carbon footprint of EV's is essentially the same as comparable gas powered vehicles, that's been well documented. The lithium, cobalt, manganese etc. it takes to produce EV batteries are not common elements in the earth's crust, nor are they cheap to mine and process to market.

Like it or not, dinosaur deposits of oil, coal etc. have high BTU's and are arguably the most efficient and economical form of energy delivery on the planet, except for perhaps nuclear.

If all the woke corps like amazzon, fakebook, walked the walk instead of talking the talk, they'd have solar panels and small wind turbines on top of the massive concrete footprint they have. Crickets. They choose to buy "credits" instead, where the green energy is pushed off to someone else who build these inefficient, horrible scars on the landscape with solar/wind "farms."

 

[Scorpio]

as you say, just think if a great number of those commercial wharehouses and the like had solar generation as part of their construction,
on those large open roofs

and it is far more viable than it is to have these wind farms

 

[solarion]

For TPTB the "green energy" thing is mostly about virtue signaling to drum up support/shame dissenters, while intentionally and systematically destroying economic viability of select nations.

Highest average volatility readings since late 2020. Equity and bond markets are going to feel it on open, particularly with more cooked up economic data coming out pre-market. Nonfarm payroll, unemployment, average hourly wage slave earnings, and labor force participation.

 

[gringott]

as you say, just think if a great number of those commercial wharehouses and the like had solar generation as part of their construction,
on those large open roofs

and it is far more viable than it is to have these wind farms

It has been years, why don't we have industrial roofing products that incorporate solar cells by now? Even home units? Even low efficiency would seem to be a benefit to me. Example, most people at work during the day, using less juice, just when commercial is using the most. Perfect time to dump some residential solar into the grid.

 

[solarion]

Well that happened...

Zerozone banks implode in 3...2...1...

Cryptos going right back into the toilet after what was surely a dramatic, though brief, short squeeze. Bitcoin down 6.03% and ETH down 7.11%.

 

[Scorpio]

moved my stop way up tight on the silver

pulled my natty earlier

 

[solarion]

The 10y is 1.71% ...absolutely cratering with the "safety trade". That pushes real yield there down to -5.81%. Yuck!

 

[Au-myn]

Black Gold getting a little hot here.

 

[madhu]

How Ukraine's Jewish president Zelensky made peace with neo-Nazi paramilitaries on front lines of war with Russia - The Grayzone

While Western media deploys Volodymyr Zelensky’s Jewish heritage to refute accusations of Nazi influence in Ukraine, the president has ceded to neo-Nazi forces and now depends on them as front line fighters. Back in October 2019, as the war in eastern Ukraine dragged on, Ukrainian President...

thegrayzone.com

Who is gas lighting and cui bono. These armed militia are using civilians as shields just like saddam. They are shooting at Civilians trying to leave the conflict zone.

 

[Scorpio]

milestone

gold just went over 2 grand an ounce

up 35.70 currently

 

[tigerwillow1]

It predictably bounced off of 2k. I've learned to not take the price seriously until the manipulated US market opens up.

 

[solarion]

I believe that on February 24, the big bankster maggots that rig the PM markets at the crimex finally got TF out of the way. They saw the freight train about to run them over, smashed the living shit out of PM markets with paper shorts, and then covered.

The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Anyone remember David Brady of Sprott you know the one more dip and then we moon guy? Schmuck. Gold overbought short term into resistance maybe a little dip I think this week tells the tale. Oliver has emphatically stated Friday that the metals Silver included have broken out. Any move back into...

www.goldismoney2.com

The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Anyone remember David Brady of Sprott you know the one more dip and then we moon guy? Schmuck. Gold overbought short term into resistance maybe a little dip I think this week tells the tale. Oliver has emphatically stated Friday that the metals Silver included have broken out. Any move back into...

www.goldismoney2.com

Likely more confirmation tomorrow when the new COT report comes out.

 

[solarion]

Energy prices going completely crazy. Never have I seen anything like it...gains you'd expect to see as a strong year...the result of a single day in some cases. This is going to make the price of everything massively more expensive. People will be wiped out economically...hell, people will be freezing/starving to death if this continues.

TTF Gas now up 49.85% and UK Gas up 46.31% on the day. Complete madness.

 

[Scorpio]

they got turnaround tuesday started early,

turned silver negative with a big red candle, lickety split just recently,

so now we see if it can crawl its cathartic keister back up or if it is going to lay there and sweat

 

[solarion]

NYC has the finest criminal bankers on Earth. Asia/Europe sends em higher...and NY steals the rally...once again. Palladium was up over 12%...now it's down 5%. ...yet somehow some think "futures" markets are legitimate price discovery mechanisms. ROFL

Asia/Europe

NYC criminal scumbags a few hours later.

Thank you for the opportunity to stack more physical cheaper NYC vampires squids. It's banker clown world...sub $30 physical sovereign silver may soon be a distant memory.

...and the dixy is being tossed around like it's fake paper silver even as energy prices spike like never before and stagflation is being discussed openly on marketwatch.

 

[Casey Jones]

NYC has the finest criminal bankers on Earth. Asia/Europe sends em higher...and NY steals the rally...once again. Palladium was up over 12%...now it's down 5%. ...yet somehow some think "futures" markets are legitimate price discovery mechanisms. ROFL

Asia/Europe

View attachment 248316

NYC criminal scumbags a few hours later.

View attachment 248317

Thank you for the opportunity to stack more physical cheaper NYC vampires squids.

This is only possible because gold buyers are not demanding settlement and delivery in physical.

Because they're playing the paper game along with the manipulators.

At SOME point, this game of Musical Chairs, with so much paper representing so little real gold...it HAS to end.

 

[solarion]

Prefer it end with bankers being dragged out of their offices and publicly executed, but more likely it ends when their fractional reserve scams again get overwhelmed with demand...as was the London gold pool. Pity all the douchebag "regulators" are captured by wall street.

 

[Scorpio]

relax guys,
it is nothing but algos doing what they do,

silver is over 25 and gold is 1975

and that is after getting creamed,

all is aok in metal land for now

 

[Au-myn]

Besides, we already received buy signals so, I consider this as a pull-back.

 

[Scorpio]

I bought the silvah and natty dips,
now it is wait and see how they do

----------

on another note, if you guys remember, when we were crawling up in Vene's grille, claiming this and that, sanctioning them, pretending to help some 2 bit leader throw out the current

russha and chin li came a callin',
they were providing dough to operate in exchange for their oil reserves, ie future claims

so for us to go down there begging for oil, comical as heck,
as it will be the russhians and chin li who give it the thumbs up or down, not Vene
Vene has already tapped out their future production as collateral for the dough received

 

[solarion]

I'm stacking calls on their gift weakness. Sibanye-stillwater went from up a few percent pre-market to down nearly 5% on their scummy manipulations. So thank you bankers for that opportunity...I wanted more anyway.

...and yes, I effing hate bankers. Nearly as much as I despise politicians that let them steal everything from everyone.

Uranium and platinum are going to the moon imo...so back up the truck.

 

[Scorpio]

silvah stopped out at +145 bucks, no biggy
if it wants to chop around, fine by me
just look for another better entry

still bag holding the natty like a dimwit, subject to change of course