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solarion

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...and gold is surging again, eventually to drag silver with it. The GSR has risen more than 2% with this unusual divergence caused by criminal bankers and their paper metal scams.
 

Scorpio

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your fearless leaders have a deal struck to stop imports of russhan oil

uhhh huh,

dow moves down
 

Scorpio

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yep, gold back tapping on the 2 grand door, asking if it can come in,
and silvah flopping around unchanged for now
 

Casey Jones

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...ban Roosky oil.

Yeah...sure, Nancy. Sure, Joe.

Someone needs to explain to these dolts and drunks: Oil is FUNGIBLE. If the Rooskies can't sell it to us, they'll sell it to China, or Trashkanistan, who will promptly sell it to us, for moar.

And we'll pay, too, because we have no choice.
 

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silver rips thru 26 and gold thru 2 grand this am,

and all this while the dollar is strengthening big time, with that index over 99 now

lumber has settled down,
grains are taking a temp breather

oil over 120 again and grinding back towards that recent high yesterday of 130
 

Scorpio

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they are saying the nickel price spike was 250% in 2 days

then they shut it down
 

solarion

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Investors pouring into lithium producers in 3...2...1...

I think they're running out of nearly everything, just as that consistently dishonest head commodity trader, Currie, over at goldman sux recently said. "We're running out of everything!"


silver rips thru 26 and gold thru 2 grand this am,
...and smacked right back below 26 as the NY criminals again decide they dislike higher silver prices.

...golly, I can't figure out why silver bullion premiums keep climbing. lol

Definitely, definitely not due to tight silver supply though...that can't be it.

Another beautiful takedown of palladium too. Stuff must be completely worthless in the US...Asia and Europe keep raising the price and NY keeps lowering it again.

Edit: Looks like cryptocurrencies may have decoupled from the falling tech stonks. Bitcoin already had its bear market, and now the techs are there...down 21.07% from their November highs.
 
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Scorpio

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1. Markets up on signs of diplomatic shift in Russia, Ukraine

The mood in global markets brightened after Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Russia has no intention of occupying Ukraine or overthrowing its government, a clear step away from its previous position of wanting to ‘de-Nazify’ the country.

The comments came a day after Ukraine’s democratically-elected (and Jewish) President Voldymyr Zelensky said he had “cooled” on the idea of joining NATO, the prospect of which was a prime factor behind Russia’s invasion.

European stock markets rose as much as 5%, while the euro rebounded 0.8% to $1.0985 by 6:15 AM ET (1115 GMT).

As ever, diplomatic rhetoric shifts according to its audience, and is often at odds with events. Zakharova also said that Russia’s actions aren’t aimed at Ukraine’s peaceful population – despite widespread evidence of repeated shelling of refugees trying to flee through corridors it had guaranteed. Zelensky, meanwhile, told the British parliament that Ukraine would fight on “to the end” on Tuesday.

2. Russian economic crisis worsens as exodus continues, central bank restricts stops FX sales

Russia’s economy continues to lurch into chaos. The Central Bank late on Tuesday stopped banks from selling foreign currency for six months, a move that suggests it expects the current sanctions regime to last at least that long. The dollar rose another 12% on local exchanges to 118.07 rubles.

Vladimir Putin signed a decree late on Tuesday restricting the export of raw materials, in an attempt to appear still in control of an economic situation largely driven by external forces. The U.S. and U.K. both said they will ban Russian oil imports on Tuesday, while the EU outlined plans to cut its imports of Russian gas by two-thirds within a year.

The list of private companies exiting Russia continued to lengthen: McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) and Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM), the owner of KFC and Pizza Hut, both said they will suspend operations. Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) and Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) have all done the same within the last 24 hours.

 

solarion

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Sounds like so much gamesmanship between the two sides, and coming only a day after China made it clear where their interests lie. The goofball white house resident going from nation to nation begging to get oil production increased sure doesn't do much to make NATO appear to be negotiating from a place of strength. If the WH wanted more oil, they could also simply stop hamstringing US producers...oh been then what would the other socialist leaders say at the Paris climate accords.

On the US economic side, the latest, likely fake data shows a disinflationary consumer credit expansion reading, dying small businesses(duh), and a bloated foreign trade imbalance that works out to a projected 1.076 trillion on an annualized basis.

1646827935793.png


I suppose, in the context of a potential psychology switch for US consumers, one could make the case that Amerikans are hoarding cash(they are), and using portions of that cash to a greater extent to pay for other things they're also hoarding and those things are made elsewhere. Thus consumer spending can remain to appear fairly robust even as trade deficits bloat and peasant credit expansion slows.

...or perhaps the federal regime's digits are all just made up BS.
 

Scorpio

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note the stats,
claim wholesale inventories consistent,

but think about it, those are based on a dollar value
if the price of barbie dolls is up, then the same dollar amount = fewer barbie dolls

point being, if number = the same, then there is actually much lower inventories
 

solarion

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Good catch bear...I missed that.

...and presumably the "strong dollar" is driving up the foreign trade deficit further.
 

Au-myn

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note the stats,
claim wholesale inventories consistent,

but think about it, those are based on a dollar value
if the price of barbie dolls is up, then the same dollar amount = fewer barbie dolls

point being, if number = the same, then there is actually much lower inventories
Having spent a large portion of my career in Material Management/Inventory Control, I believe you are correct.

Inventory is controlled by Standard cost which is inputted into the system mostly by the largest recent purchase and adjusted once or twice a year.
Procurement is driven by a Master plan and loaded into the MRP system. Lead times and price trends are adjusted accordingly prior to an MRP run.

So, they are changing the Standard cost on items just like holding obsolete inventory on the books rather than sending them to the Scrap account, which would decrease the value of the Inventory. That old trick is used for loan purposes to artificially increase the Inventory.
 

BarnacleBob

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Oil opened weak this morning, second day for a failed run at the recent high...

FB_IMG_1646842536697.jpg
 

solarion

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That's pretty cool.

1646848889603.png


Declining dixy and rising yields, sounds a lot like inflation fears.

1646849160348.png
 

Scorpio

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alright alright alright

you clowns have done convinced me, but i am kind of unsettled with releasing the info, as assuredly there will be those that jump the gun on me

I have put in my buys on gold and silver

they are going in slightly below existing prices

so the gold will go in at the long term average, or 426.50

and silvah will go in at 5.67

with the way things are going, should get a hit in about 48-72 hrs
 

Scorpio

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lancers put up a link to Moriarty at 321 gold speaking of a DSI index,

where corn, metals, crude and the like were all pegged at 'mortimer sell' territory

with the DSI being a 'daily sentiment index', and you pay big dough for it

regardless, would like to respond to that

where I do appreciate they are pegged,
but to be realistic, gold and silver really haven't moved much at all
let's say from 1780-2000 for gold or about 220, which is roughly 12%
then for silver from 22.5-26 for a 3.50, and roughly again 15%

those really aren't very large gains, but the rsi did get toppy, as well as the macd at the highs,

could we see some short term choppiness? Sure, but is it realistic to say we have topped out for now, I don't think so.

for one, I have lost confidence that the old techs can adapt to how things are today,
where the size of the moves is one thing, but the speed at which they do is altogether different,
many of these techs were created and perfected within the framework of a less fluid market overall,
where a big move in gold would be 10-20 bucks while in silver 20-30 ct, and now we see 50 bucks and 1 dollar or better moves respectively in very short time frames

these moves create conditions for those techs to see things as blow off tops or bottoms, when in fact they are more and more frequent, and less representative of the market overall

or at the minimum, reflecting a new style of market, more manic, more responsive, and symptomatic of high leverage, and FOMO

then too, we see quite often that old resistance points on the way up get blown thru like butter, and other points created,
same on the way down, where supports dissolve with a avalanche of selling pressure.

meaning, we must all remain aware of this as we look to these markets, and try to determine where they are at, and what the future looks like for them

some will use the break out of war, or whatever to create a explanation for why something may not work, or is out of character,
but that would be false security as there are always events of one type or another driving markets,
 
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solarion

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1646913448784.png


Silver's volatility is also spiking sharply here. Seems like more than just another commodity super cycle...the volatility in the energy sector has been unreal. Tough to plan much of anything long term if one cannot predict energy costs with some degree of confidence.
 

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and now this am we get the most recent inflation numbers, and the boyz are front running the data with metals up again

but even then, it is curious that we find a silvah at +30 and a gold at +22 now a wait and see move, rather than a explosive move

going back to what we said earlier

still sitting on my hands re crypto and waiting for my numbers,

that is where the FOMO comes in to play, while I sit here and bag hold a bunch of these miners while they puke up less than stellar numbers
 

Scorpio

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thank goodness,

house just passed ukrainia help funds,

while also passing a bill to fund .gov thru sept

hidin' and the ho getting paid
 

solarion

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Was 13.6 trillion for Ukraine last I'd heard...which will, of course, balloon into several times that. These douchebags don't seem to know what broke even means. Print baby print. What's a a trillion and a half here and there...more or less. Insane.

Edit: The dixy just fell sharply. Has someone seen a preview of the jobless claims/CPLie?

1646918298079.png


...and the predictable spike in debt yields.

1646918349791.png
 
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Scorpio

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good question, as metals have been flattish for an hour or so as they await the data

that stupid move down in 10 yr was out of character anyway,
it is back to closer where it should be now with fed on tap at + 1/4

if the fed had any dumb ideas of 'wait and see' and do nothing, the market should be forcing their hand at this point to a minimum 1/4
 

Scorpio

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numbers out

CPI MOM .08

YOY 7.9% INFLATION

CPI .08 VS .07 EST

INITIAL JOBLESS 227K VS EXPECTED 216K OR UP 11K

minor bump up going in silver, gold holding so far
 

Casey Jones

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Last night I watched Ray Dalio's Ewe Toob vid, about the arcs of empire...the rise and the fall. And he touched on his own reaction, as a NYSE junior clerk in 1971, when Nixon dumped the Gold Standard. How he expected a market crash. And how, instead, the market melted UP.

And then on to the effects of bad policies and bad politicians with borrow, spend and print economics. And what that does to the securities markets. ALWAYS, drives it UP.

What he's referring to, although he didn't use the term, is "seignorage." Those who are closest to the New Money, in currency debasement, benefit first, and often immensely.

In our sick system, it's the Stonk Market that's closest. So he who has the insight to buy, fast - or the herd instinct to do what all the other yuppies are doing, buying - those benefit, while the general populace is injured and looted.

I can't argue with this. The only flaw is, your profits are still in fiat; and fiat itself appears in a death spiral. But if I'd grown my money 10x in stonx, and then bought PMs for the crash, at 3x what I could have (did) buy them for, 12-17 years ago...I'd be far ahead. Before figuring CapGains taxes.

And also allowing I was able to get out of fiat before we're Weimarized.

This is a brain-buster, trying to figure the safe course in this insanity.
 

solarion

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Didn't we just do this "the war may be ending soon" propaganda rally thing just a couple days ago? Putin sees "positive shifts" so gold tanks, the equity bubble soars, and mysteriously oil goes up. Well, at least they fixed that 8% inflation thingy. lol

Dollar cratering, yields up...we all know the drill by now, where the fake markets reverse their "safety trades" because everything is great again.
 

BarnacleBob

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Inflation Rate YoY (FEB)
Actual: 10.54%
Expected: 10.5%
Previous: 10.38%

dailyfx.com/economic-calendar
 

Scorpio

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and gold gets the daylights kicked out of it because ole' vlad uttered that the talks had a couple of positive moments,

what a bunch of hoo hah

10.54% inflation, and gold goes down 34 bucks
 

BarnacleBob

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Didn't we just do this "the war may be ending soon" propaganda rally thing just a couple days ago? Putin sees "positive shifts" so gold tanks, the equity bubble soars, and mysteriously oil goes up. Well, at least they fixed that 8% inflation thingy. lol

Dollar cratering, yields up...we all know the drill by now, where the fake markets reverse their "safety trades" because everything is great again.

I have been observing POO, it isnt rising, on the contrary its declining.... the longs are leaving the playing the playing field. A close under $104 which is very possible today brings $100 resistance into play with support @ $90.... POO is now susceptible to the algos & babblings of the body politic bringing down the price of common transportation fuels....
 

BarnacleBob

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and gold gets the daylights kicked out of it because ole' vlad uttered that the talks had a couple of positive moments,

what a bunch of hoo hah

10.54% inflation, and gold goes down 34 bucks

The Fed & ESF, etc. et al have closed the doors on gold as an inflation play... leaving equities & RE as the only viable plays to maintain PPP during the inflationary spring.... they have the disequalibriums & organic cycles so messed up that they are forced to artificially create illusions of cycles.... this of course creates great opportunities for the insiders to game the system without much risk!
 

solarion

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I too see crude as over-extended, but miraculously it's unaffected by Putin's new alleged love affair with Zelenskyy. Gold down $35 bucks and oil up a quarter. Makes zero sense. Even if the war ended 5 mins ago, it wouldn't remove all the sanctions. It wouldn't change the fact that US companies are lining up to signal their virtue by closing down Russian exposure.

...and I don't believe for a single second that banks aren't imploding behind the scenes due to all this madness.
 

Scorpio

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don't give a chit what you say BB, goin' in :0)

bought a gold on the down,
will just tight stop the pig

and yes, you have mentioned the near term top in oil, as it hasn't been violated, and not even close to it any longer

now they are talking that oil price will be down on a weekly basis this week.

I am not confident the top in oil is in
 

solarion

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Gold on sale and equity futures weakening...we could see people bargain shopping for safer plays heading into the weekend.
 

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metals have clawed back a bunch of their losses,

as BB refers to, oil market has quieted right down, awaiting more news to move it
 

solarion

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Cryptos just turned negative for the session...and now the nascrap. Shocking I tell ya.

They are loving their shakeouts based on nothing but hot air.

No worries about the cost of fuel though...lawmakers have a fix.


They'll rob the producers more and give the little people some of their wealth. Uh...yay? I mean, what could possibly go wrong?!?
 

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don't give a chit what you say BB, goin' in :0)

bought a gold on the down,
will just tight stop the pig

and yes, you have mentioned the near term top in oil, as it hasn't been violated, and not even close to it any longer

now they are talking that oil price will be down on a weekly basis this week.

I am not confident the top in oil is in

Looks to me that there is the possibility of a left shoulder developing in a
H & S formation.... which would support your hypothesis the rally hasnt concluded.... IMO a rally in POO would be temporary, as the laws of unsustainable exponential growth are asserted... The top very well could be a matter of political expediency... as POTUS, etc. et al could very well jawbone the POO lower by threatening to open various oil spigots which would force the longs to abandon their positions.... oil is the new gold!
 

solarion

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Funny. The metals have pared losses, but the producers are still getting slaughtered. Oil is now up 1.59%, which is amusing as hell given the alleged "peace", but even my oil service companies are still down 4%. Propaganda works it seems.

I better go sell everything and buy some overpriced dow 30 stonks like I'm being incentivized to do.

Uh oh. "Stronger dollar" and higher rates...I better go sell metals right away!

1647013044477.png


These guys have their market rigging scams and propaganda down to a science.
 
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gringott

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Didn't we just do this "the war may be ending soon" propaganda rally thing just a couple days ago? Putin sees "positive shifts" so gold tanks, the equity bubble soars, and mysteriously oil goes up. Well, at least they fixed that 8% inflation thingy. lol
 

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and gold gets the daylights kicked out of it because ole' vlad uttered that the talks had a couple of positive moments,

what a bunch of hoo hah

10.54% inflation, and gold goes down 34 bucks
I wonder how that works out, long-term.

James Howard Kunstler has interesting observations in today's installment of his blog


What he suggests (as many have) is that this war is a distraction. What he's also saying is that the move to shut down oil production is not JUST the result of orders of the Green Gretaists. It's to engineer the famine that has now been firmly launched - so that Joe and Nan and Jay, can distract us from the coming criminal charges out of these quack-vaxxes, and speed up the ethnic cleansing. The answer will be again, to fire New Money out of cannons, as Stimmy checks...to keep the masses sated and obedient and in their homes until the Grim Reaper comes.

Unmentioned is, where Joe is gonna get the foodstuffs to do this with. We can't eat money.
 

solarion

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Is silver about to turn positive? ...and perhaps drag gold with it?

What a complete shit show fake US markets are.

...and silver just briefly turned green. Un-freaking-real.
 
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